LordAdam's Posts
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Realhommie:He is over-hyped. This Obat guy is richer than him. -Lord |
kirchofff:He is not. The King of Morocco has enough money to buy him, his family, his throne and his kingdom and still have enough to buy the Ooni of Ife and his kingdom. All these local champions called Kings. -Lord |
Elosky20:I know you support the corruption fight and that you are a buharist, that is why I called you that. Unfortunately, I am not Igbo, so I cannot decipher the last sentence. EFCC should keep on doing what they are doing. It is better than folding our hands and singing Kumbaya! -Lord |
tonyfrenzy:The confab had representatives from all regions including the North and South West. Those who do not want it to be implemented are the real enemies of Nigeria, not specifically a region. Maintaining this system is an expensive continuous mistake. The fact is most Nigerians do not know this, that is why there is no agitation yet. -Lord |
My question is this, Is EFCC not an independent agency? For those supporting his obvious partisanship, would you guys not be screaming foul had Jega been part of the march organized by TAN before the presidential elections? Magu is unfit to be the EFCC chairman! He is Buhari's pawn. That is corruption itself. -Lord |
Elosky20:Why do you want to change the rules because he is a Yoruba Oba you zombie! Everyone must vomit our yams, regardless of party or ethnicity. -Lord |
tonyfrenzy:TRUE FEDERALISM! If you want to learn more, refer to the consensus of the National Confab under GEJ. Nigeria needs Regional Governments with less powers at the center (FG). Like it was before the civil war. Every well-meaning Nigerian gathered and adopted it, only hell knows why PMB and APC discredited it. -Lord |
ehie:Another valid question! We have a very annoying habit of living in denial in Nigeria. -Lord |
tonyfrenzy:We don't need God. We need to make tough decisions, starting with adopting true federalism. God did not help Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, UAE (Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah...), Saudi Arabia, Qatar, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, to become the heavyweights that they are today with mega-performing economies. As at 1970, Nigeria was better than most of those countries I mentioned. If we cannot afford to seize our future for ourselves then we deserve all that is happening to us and more bad news. -Lord |
EPOMA:Several economists have said that Nigeria does not have an Import crisis. True, we need to boost our industrialization and consumption of made in Nigeria goods/services. But that is not something that can happen overnight. Large industries take time to open, and break even. Nigeria is one of the worst countries on earth to do business. We have a fundamental problem of the system in which we operate, not Nigerians. Fix the system then you can blame Nigerians on their consumption habit. -Lord |
grandstar:Those who do not learn from history are bound to make the same mistakes. Only that this time, the consequences will be more dire. -Lord |
adipemcanis1:GEJ and Emefiele would have devalued the Naira. He devalued the naira from 150 to 166 then to 197. That is why our reserve fell by $10b. The fact is that Buhari should have also continued the systemic devaluation to cushion the effect of the falling naira, but alas he waited for 7 months before assembling an economic team. Naira was always going to lose value. GEJ's systemic devaluation was the reason why Nigerians were not feeling the effect much. Now that PMB has wasted all the time, the space between official and parallel market is high, and depression is imminent, the pressure to devalue the naira is heightened. But here is where Buhari has his hands tied. The Real Value of the Naira presently is around N400 to $1. If he wants to truly devalue the Naira to follow market rate, that is how low the naira will fall, and the country will fall into a recession the next second. Inflation will be rife. And our reserve will reduce to somewhere around $15b to $17b. Buhari slow nature and inaction is why we are in this situation. He had the chance to do something and he did nothing. Now we can only hope that oil price increases on or before June 1 in 2016, else the economy will force Buhari to devalue the Naira at a point where we will be at Venezuela's position (there will be anarchy, massive layoffs, owed wages and entitlements, massive inflation). Buhari's future as the president of this country rests on how the next four months play out. The CBN has almost exhausted all the possible moves to keep the naira afloat. The Budget that should provide the cushion is having an unprecedented hold-up that will extend to march or april. -Lord |
dotcomnamename:N390 |
tonyfrenzy:Read where I said "We need to change how the society operates. If not, things will remain the same." I applaud the anti-corruption fight. Still, it is only addressing a symptom, not a problem. Which is why the effects are slow and there is much opposition to it. Look at the #BudgetofYams/#Budgetgate. To evade the anti-corruption fight, all you have to do is become an APC member. Tomorrow, if another party comes into power, those in previous PDP and APC governments that stole will switch parties to the party in power and their slates will be wiped clean. It is vicious circle, where the money looted by a few individuals are recovered and looted again by a few individuals. The phantom recovered looted funds that PMB and Adeosun are hiding from the public were meant to fund this budget where Aso Rock pays rent and building a website is meant to gulp more than 700 million naira. Politicians can always float new parties and the wealthy can always redirect their black money to fund these new parties. In the end, the new party demonizes the old party and reward the same wealthy cabal with inflated budgets, contracts, and initiatives. Who loses and who gains? Nothing changes! -Lord |
jusRadical: elohorayodele:If you read the link I provided, you would not ask this question. Here is the link again -- https://www.naij.com/734705-naira-depreciates-drastically-black-market-see-new-rate.html This is the quote of interest. "The currency also depreciated against the British pound to N505 per pound on the black market." -Lord |
tonyfrenzy:You are CORRUPT. Stop making corruption a thing of the 1%. Corruption pervades the Nigerian society. We need to change how the society operates. If not, things will remain the same. See it this way, if you become wealthy enough to import goods in a big way, you still have to settle customs, pay exorbitant double or triple taxes, pay bloated electricity bills for zero power, pay huge amounts for diesel for your warehouse and your house, and in a situation like it is now, you will buy dollars for N385/$1 from the black market or banks when CBN exchange rate is N199/$1. The system is not funny for anyone, it breeds, feeds, and protects corruption. -Lord |
pacino26:There is a reason why in the world bank ease of doing business index, Nigeria is 136. The system needs overhauling. That is the only way to get our priorities straightened and have people prepared to see to these priorities being followed through. Until then, it will be more talk and no action. -Lord |
@OP, be accurate. The parallel exchange rate is currently N385/$1. Check out https://www.naij.com/734705-naira-depreciates-drastically-black-market-see-new-rate.html Exchange rate will hit 400 Naira by end of this week. Pounds is already at N505. -Lord |
2plus2:Said same. -Lord |
2plus2:As most of us agreed on the other NavierStokes thread, it is the entire system that needs urgent overhauling. Where the debate is heated is how exactly are we to do that. Where do we start from? I opined that changing the style of governance is a good way to start, @Topeakintola hasn't left his opinion on where to start. It'd be informative to know your opinion. And @NavierStokes, do leave your opinion. Where do we start from if we are to overhaul this system? -Lord |
NavierStokes:Really shameful stuff. The reality is that all these comments will vanish into thin air when oil boom starts again. The bloating and ghost workers scandal will cease being a topic of national discourse. Replacing it will be calls for increased minimum wage and salaries of everyone from teachers to health workers. It is a vicious cycle, I have come to accept as reality. -Lord |
I'm rooting for Russia. Russia will take the US to the cleaners in an all out war. Russia will not wait for NATO to bring the war to them, they will take the war directly to the US. Be more scared of what is not there than what you know about. Russia was the first country to explore space, first to build a space station. Even with the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia can be whatever it wants to be. US counts on alliance, Russia can handle the heat. The Allied Forces needed Russia to bring Hitler to his knees in World War 2. Before you bring in the technology advancement debate, Russia is not exactly sitting on their asses while the West improves. Moreover, in the 80's Russia lost the war in Aghanistan. In the 2000's America with the advancements still lost the war in Afghanistan. 'Nough said. We should do our best to avoid conflict. But if shit hits the fan, do not expect the US/NATO coalition to have a cakewalk. Mother Russia will surprise you surface analysts. -Lord |
NavierStokes:You just summarized the point. The issue of devaluation like virtually all national policies in this nation is being treated as a short-term thing. Nigeria truly need "big-picture" guys who are able to make tough long-term decisions. Have a pleasant night rest! -Lord |
NavierStokes:I Agree. I estimate that oil prices will hover below $50 for the rest of the year. However, if we do not devalue the official rate to around 220-235 and ease restrictions, economic growth estimate for this year will be reduced again, and the parallel rate will fall faster as austerity measures become tighter. On the bright side, we can maintain the official 199 rate till around August as long as prices do not fall below $30. My major concern is that the policy makers are pegging things wrongly. The budget was pegged at $38 per barrel (a rate we don't expect to see until June) and Kachiku has a very bogus optimism that the next OPEC meeting will have Saudi Arabia tightening the noose which should lead to increased prices. Even Adeosun thinks prices will rebound within the first quarter of this year--something I called Alice-in-Wonderland wishful thinking. Saudi Arabia is preparing for the worst, look at all the news coming out of the rich country with more than $700b in reserves. US and Iran will not agree to the Russia/Saudi Arabia deal for controlled output across the board, so Nigeria should be thinking long-term not short-term in hopes of oil price increasing in a short time. The next OPEC meeting is in June. I hope PMB's gamble pays off. But if on June 2, OPEC does not unanimously decide to cut the supply glut, Nigeria will enter an economic recession that will be deeper than any levels since Independence. -Lord |
@NavierStokes https://www.nairaland.com/2937841/myths-naira-devaluation-nonso-obikili What are your thoughts? -Lord |
salt1:True on how true federalism will inject a healthy competitive spirit. It will be nice to see the nut pyramids in the North, huge coal train transports in the east, and heavy cocoa export in the west. If ND is given its own regional government, as I expect, then there will be diversification beyond oil I imagine. Delta and Edo are fast pursuing an agroeconomy to supplement oil production, especially Edo. There is increased potential in the rubber and oil palm cash crop market. There are plenty of adjuncts now (like Ogun becoming an industrial power house, Anambra transforming into an economic hub) but let us suffice with the major earners. About the oil burst, I never counted on oil losing value to change anyone's mind. It lost value in 2008, nothing happened. They would only bid their time during this period of low returns in anticipation of when there is surplus again, then the pillaging continue in astronomical proportions. -Lord |
Topeakintola:I don't suppose I am infallible or that I have the magic solution or my solution is superior to the solution proposed by others. With that said, in my humble opinion, I think we have to start with adopting true federalism. It will not magically erase our problems but it would put us on the right course to enact the much-needed reforms with very little resistance from the entrenched regional and ethnic interests. Changing the ideology of the people is a different kettle of fish. It is either we have a stern figure/leader of the likes of Mao and Lee Yuan to build strong institutions and coerce people to conform, or the government engage leaders in different spheres to help chart and enforce a long-term multi-faceted course or plan. Irrespective of the route we take in this case, the fact is that a figure with authority has to be at the forefront. Else, the people will not let it succeed. People are quick to point out problems but slow to adopt solutions especially when change is required. Values like transparency, accountability, sound communication are foreign to the Nigerian culture. For example the way a Nigerian health worker communicates a patient is different from the way Western health workers do. This is despite the fact that the Nigerian health worker trains using texts from the western health care system. In any case, any such change will be a slow, painstaking process spanning two or more decades judging by the rate of change in countries like UAE, Malaysia, Singapore, China, Brazil, India, Phillipines... I seriously doubt Nigerians have the patience and can muster the resolve to surmount the challenges that would inevitably arise. -Lord |
Topeakintola:I understand your point that capital expenditure stimulates the economy. The fact is that in a normal society it is the ultimate solution. But as I have said, in Nigeria the impact is very low because of the nature of governance and how the country operates. The $15b on power spent by OBJ should get Nigeria at least 10,000 MW. It got Nigeria around 2000 MW if you minus the fact that we had 1000 MW at 1999 when OBJ entered government and that by 2005 when we left we were hovering around 3000 MW. The Chinese Three Gorges Dam cost $26b and produced 22,000 MW. Capital projects are the milking cows of the politicians in power. So you cannot say they leave much impact compared to recurrent expenditure. We should not just look at textbook economics, look at the reality in Nigeria. Adapt what the textbook says with the reality on ground to make your assertion. Recurrent expenditure pays Nigerians directly 100%. Our fathers, mothers, uncles, aunts, cousins... Over 50% of capital expenditure goes to the top 1% (politicians, their cronies, and dishonest civil servants). In the end, the completed capital projects are nothing to write home about, there is zero provision for maintenance, and no questions are asked. To solve the quagmire, we need accountability. The US has a parastatal called the Government Accountability Office that reports to Congress. If you receive $10m in a budget, you would show how it was used, then your spending will be checked to know if you spent the money right or if there are ways to get something better for less. Nigeria has nothing like that. The government just spends like it has a blank check or something. We cannot afford to wait for 4 or 8 years or 16 years for a president or party to go out of power before wastages are uncovered. Even worse, only wastages by those who have opposing political ties. We should uncover wastages as they happen like we all do in our SMEs, family, and personal finances. About federalism, the confab report has virtually all that we need to go forward. The whole country met and adopt a solution to move forward, that is the direction we should take. All of the intricacies will be sorted out once we accept that it is the next route to take. Series of commissions and forums of experts will be consulted and formed to make it as smooth a process as possible. About corrupt politicians, I do not agree with you. Politicians are very fluid creatures. They move with the tide. If a Nigerian politician goes to the US, he will not siphon money through invisible projects, if he does that he wouldn't last a quarter of a year. Rather, he will adopt the US system of taking huge money from companies under the legalized lobbying system and then pursue the interests of his/her backers in the government. Vice versa for a US politician. If the system does not encourage it, it would be very difficult for the politicians to wave their wands. Case in point is the budget. We have always had budget of yams in this country, but when APC came in with the notion of change and still reverted to the old methods, they faced outcry from the public and political enemies to make them retrace their steps. Change the system, change the way things happen. It is the law of natural selection, whoever does not conform will not stand the test of time. About the people that can enact the changes, I can assure you as an intellectual that they are many, each being an individual torch. We have the 7th largest population in the world, one of the top 10 highest recipient of remittances (Nigerians abroad sent home $24b last year, our budget was $23b), and Nigerian intellectuals occupy esteemed positions in public and private institutions around the world from the US to the UK to Russia. The right people are out there. The insects of the night always come from the shadows when a light bulb comes on. It is dark now, very dark, that is why you can't see them. The system makes a mess of the technocrats that enter, like it did to the founding fathers of pan-Africanism. A Diezani who oversaw one of the most prosperous periods for Shell Nigeria is very different from the Diezani as Minister of Petroleum. Same thing for NOI (World Bank versus Ministry of Finance), Soludo, Sanusi, Ezekwesili (VP World Bank Africa versus being a minister under OBJ)... -Lord |
NavierStokes:From a basic standpoint, the overbloated and inefficient civil service is a problem. However, it is not the root cause, especially when you extrapolate from a specific country to the whole continent. It is only a symptom of the problem. The root cause of the failures in Africa, in my opinion, is the fact that the people are simpletons. It is the people not those in power. If we want to succeed, we have to change how we think, how we do things, and thoroughly evaluate what we want and how to get there. The success of the pan-African movement championed by Zik, Nkrumah, Kaunda et al was that they had a different thought-process from the average African, possibly because they had western schooling. I'm not ass-licking now, but western education expanded their intellect. Why their pet projects failed was because they had vision but lacked the requisite supportive hands to bring that vision to reality. This is because the people they had to use still had the depressive, retrogressive African thought process. Today the pan-African movement is dead and disgraceful because the original thought process behind it has been corrupted by the retrogressive basic African thought process. Even if you streamline the work force, what about the crippling violent ethnic tensions and massive corruption tendencies? What about the accountability deficit? How about the irrepressible drive to celebrate mediocrity? What about the absolute lack of good governance and respect for rule of law? Look at the supposed African leaders at the AU? The current AU chairman is the president of Chad who has been in seat for 26 years. Reducing the civil service will not magically erode these problems. In fact, the reason why we cannot reinvigorate the civil service is because of these problems. -Lord |
Topeakintola:Fortunately, you are getting the point NavierStokes is making (Big Shoutout to NavierStokes). Nigeria does not have one problem. It is impossible to pinpoint the root cause of our problem. If you say the size of government is the problem, then you should know two things: 1. Reducing the size of the government will drive up the unemployment rate 2. There will be reduced government spending which should stimulate the economy. Recurrent expenditure stimulates Nigeria's economy even better than capital expenditure (because capital expenditure are bloated [OBJ paid $14m per km for a project that actually costs $4m per km], the bulk of the expenditure goes out of the country [Julius Berger, Chinese construction agencies], and some part of it is looted outside by those in charge [civil servants and politicians]) Nigeria has many problems and it is actually up to intellectuals to have a debate on which is the original problem. To give you an idea, let's do a concise roundup of our current situation: 1. There is strong ethnic, religious, and regional divide in the country. 2. We have a culture that does not promote accountability (if you can do some projects in your tenure, no one cares about the amount spent, the loans taken, the repayment process of the loan, who performed the project [local versus international companies], if due process was followed...) 3. We have a short-sighted polity that are not willing to make the hard choice, they all want easy money in the short-term 4. The Nigerian people have chronic amnesia and do have heavily flawed conception of how a country is supposed to operate (for example, people just look at no savings under GEJ and assume only wastefulness caused it, even after protesting against subsidy removal that had us spending up to N1t annually, and even forgetting that college students stayed at home for several months because lecturers were demanding increase in pay of over 30%, or that consultants in our hospitals now earn about 50% of what the Inspector General of Police earns) For me, the first step to resolving our problem is to change our style of governance. It has not worked in 16 years, it is not working in the 9 months since a change in government and from current outlook, it will never change. Adopt true federalism. It will greatly eliminate the huge religious, ethnic, and regional divide (people will be less concerned about the ethnicity of a federal appointee and more on the qualifications of the appointee aka death of federal charter). It will also make people hold the state and local governments more accountable and shift most of the work out of the federal government. The FG utilizes 55%, the state government get 45%. Even if the FG performs averagely, if the states perform well, the average Nigerian will have a relatively better standard of living. This will also take off more power from the center and ultimately lead to increased and sustainable diversification of the economy. If we choose to continue in this our failed system of governance, we would not make any major headway. The infrastructural deficit in this country is more what the government can solve. Under PDP we invested around $20b in electricity to produce 4000 MW. Under the military, virtually same amount was invested for 1000 MW. Nigeria needs around 100,000 MW. Even with the privatization, it will take us over a decade to get uninterrupted power supply around the country if things go well. Anyone telling you otherwise is playing politics with your future and that of your children. We all know how critical electricity is to the economy of the country. I've gone long enough. The fact is that it is futile to discuss how to make this country better, because the people who know how to make the country better and have the will to are not in positions of authority and will never be supported by the simpletons in the Nigerian populace. -Lord |
Oga, I have noticed. They are now saying it is 1 MILLION EXTREMELY POOR Nigerians. And they want to "feed" school children with N10 NASCO biscuit. So make una calculate am. They want to pay 1m people 5k and buy N10 biscuit for school children with N500 billion. Dasuki part 2. -Lord |
That prayer would not work for a man that called burnt children an embarrassment to his administration. -Lord |
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