₦airaland Forum

Masterito:
Stop talking trash. You sound like they can solve any of Nigeria problems. Muslims will never accept Christian-Christian ticket, so Muslim-muslim ticket is a huge red flag for Christians.

You can reply without being unnecessarily antagonistic. Please read my post well as I didn't justify a Muslim-Muslim ticket. I said any combination is acceptable to ME, as the problems facing us today doesn't care about religion.

If it is not acceptable to you, then fine. There is no need for insults.

If you read my post, you will see that I complained about the negative influence of religion in Nigeria's politics. If a Christian-Christian ticket comprises the best hands to take Nigeria forward, why shouldn't we support it? See, have we Christians felt any safer under this government even with our brother who is the vice president? Have the Muslims felt any safer because of their brother who is the president? The answer is No! People are dying left, right and centre irrespective of religion.
I also wonder, why it is only politics that this religion card comes up. Our sport teams, are not formed based on religion but on merit, so why all this division?
May God help us oooo.....too many things divide us rather than unite us, yet we all face the same problems.

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Would you say this if it was Christain Christian candidate

This is a very difficult choice for Asiwaju. May God guide him.

Personally, I am okay with either combination as our problems today are affecting all religions.

I wish that Nigeria would have been a land where the card of religion won't be played in politics, but alas see where we are.

All this clamour by CAN, PFN, MURIC et al is just for purpose of political patronage. Once a Christian or a Muslim is in office, they can easily go to Aso Rock for visits, invite to them to the Church or Mosque for their programmes and use them to pull clout etc.

There is just no sincerity.

AntiMahdi:
How did his first deputy Governor who happened to be a woman end up?

It is only Tinubu who had 4 deputies in his eight years as governor of Lagos.

The man kept harassing any one who dares criticize him back then out of office with threat of impeachment .

False. He only had 2 deputies, Kofoworola Bucknor-Akerele and Femi Pedro.

He never harrassed them out of office, as they both completed their tenures.

Today Femi Pedro is a proud associate and disciple of Asiwaju while Madam Akerele is in the political desert with PDP.

Update: Apparently Femi Pedro was impeached 13 days to end of Tenure. So he had 3 deputies.

Urheadmaster:
Comrade Adams Oshiomole now appears like a bouncer.

Lolz. Man's keeping fit for the oza room affairs.

Nice physique though

Adams has always been loyal from day 1.

He had always fought for Asiwaju's interests as National Chairman, and even went ahead to buy forms when it was looking like some people where trying to scheme Asiwaju out using consensus. The plan was that Comrade Adams will play the card of "refusing to sign consensus agreement" as per Electoral Act and insist on primaries.

Also delivered Edo delegates - 100%

Pray for loyal brothers like Adams Aliu Oshiomole

VoteObi2023:
APCNigeria was the Twitter handle that brought Buhari to power. I think APC had problem with Philip Obin and he refused to release it to them.

The handle has over 1 million followers

Thanks, I didn't know about that.

This is not APC's Twitter handle. Their official handle is @officialAPCNig

With regards to the Poll, please disregard Online Polls. They are not a true representation of voting patterns as the real/committed voters are not on Social Media.

The battle is between APC and PDP. If Obi is lucky, he will at most see 1-2m votes in total. That's if he doesn't step down to run with Atiku as the man isn't consistent.

For Baba Akande, he was at the primaries and also joined BAT on stage to collect the flag.

Furthermore, he is not exactly young so he won't be following BAT same way Sanwoolu is doing.

Finally, there is a lot of underground work to be done in South West. Trust that Baba Akande, Baba Osoba, Chief Pius Akinyelure and other Senior Party Leaders are spearheading this.

Speaker Gbaja is No 4 citizen, he won't exactly be following BAT around.

Alhaji Lai Mohamed was at the primaries, but I don't think he is as close to BAT as before.

As far Malami, he is preparing the Cabal's hand over notes.

Moferere:
Uzodinma should cover his head in shame. The roles he played in connivance with Orji Kalu to install Lawan will never go unpunished

Hmmn, let's build bridges sir. All the Governors, especially those in the SE will be important in the journey to victory.

Funny though, I watched his interview on Channels where he mentioned that he split Imo votes between Lawan and another aspirant which I suspect is Tinubu. Furthermore, he explained his reasons for supporting Lawan which to an extent I can understand.

Good, Yahaya Bello is important for the journey ahead.

Owologbo:
How did you arrive at 40% of SS?

Good question, which I will answer with statistics.

1. APC already has good structures in Bayelsa state. They might not win majority of votes in a presidential elections, but there will be a very strong showing which will be championed by David Lyon, Timipre Silva and other leaders in Bayelsa. In 2019 Presidential elections, APC had 37% of the vote
2. APC also has good structures in Rivers State. if Amaechi's structure as promised works for Tinubu combined with the efforts of Magnus Abe, then APC will have a good showing in the State. Remember in 2019 Presidential elections, APC garnered about 24% of Rivers votes.
3. APC also has good structures in Delta State. You cannot underestimated the influence of the DSP Omo-Agege in rallying votes for Tinubu. Also, Tinubu's wife is from Delta State. That will also attract some sympathy votes. Remember in 2019 Presidential elections, APC had 27% of the votes.
4. APC also has good structures in Cross River State. The expected support from Prof. Ben Ayade, Tinubu's close friendship with the Obong and the promise to dredge Calabar Port will swing a good chunk of votes towards APC in the elections. Remember in 2019 Presidential elections, APC had 28% of the votes.
5. APC's structures in Akwa Ibom are a bit shaky considering the Court Judgement, but looking at the performance in 2019 Presidential elections where they garnered 30% of the votes, then you can assume same as a worst case scenario.
6. APC structures in Edo State is a no-brainer. In short, I expect APC to get more than 50% of the votes as even Obaseki who Tinubu introduced into politics will work low-key for APC. Remember in 2019 Presidential elections, APC had 48% of the votes.

If you take an average of the votes APC had in 2019, it was already over 35%. So going above 40% in 2023 is not difficult.

I think Akpabio's deal on stepping down for Asiwaju was consideration for Senate President.

SS are aligning more into mainstream politics than the SE

SecretReporter:
40% of Which SS, most of you don't even know that we SS are more closer to SE and even NC than the SW

I like your brutal analysis as it shows an astute political mindset. Political parties are in the business of winning elections and your summation regarding a Muslim Muslim ticket will certainly deliver victory. I'm just speaking from the sentimental side considering how polarized we are along religious lines and also a fear of the bashing from the SE which will be too much as they are quite loud in this regard (although irrespective of who he chooses, they won't vote for him). Let's see how Tinubu navigates this. Nice one!

TheFacelessMan:
Sorry to be so blunt.

1. Northern Christians are despised in their region and have very little influence. In fact, Dogara has control of just 3 LGAs in Bauchi State - as strong as he's touted. Tinubu will definitely lose if he tries it. If you notice, El Rufai said he would do Muslim / Muslim ticket in Kaduna, and he won. Didnt you also notice that Tinubu didn't waste time during campaign with delegates in certain regions?

2. Now, one secret that Southern people don't know, Atiku is really hated in the North. He has a reputation of a snake. He's widely abused as a homo and not a true Muslim. He's said to have been cursed to never be President by a popular Islamic Cleric. To be honest, I still don't understand the hate.

3. Tinubu will pick someone very strong from the North and he will be a Muslim. Northerners even see it as a revenge because OBJ foisted an unhealthy Yaradua that didn't really rule actively. They feel BAT might die in power or the VP does most of the heavy lifting.

By the time Tinubu calls meetings of traditional religious leaders and the big Pastors of Yorubaland e.g. Adeboye, Kumuyi and Oyedepo.... you will be shocked how the potential 60% SW votes turns to 80 or even 90! Oh I even forgot his wife is a Pastor in RCCG and not in the Senate (free to campaign). Remi will go to mega churches - Yorubas undisputably have the biggest.... and preach every Sunday.

Bloc votes from SW and a North 50/50 or even 40% from North will win it for BAT.

Politicians do their calculations well... no matter Atiku's vice, he's very unlikely to win. That's just the reality.

Tinubu is a strong politician but I doubt anyone was sure he would soundly thrash President + Vice President + Senate President + Party Chairman. Did we really expect such a wide margin?

Politicians are like sharks, they easily smell blood in the water I.e. they quickly jump to the side of a potential winner. The APC primaries was an eye-opener for many. SS will smartly fall in line, BAT might not win there but he will do better than projected. SE will be stubborn as usual and unfortunately shout marginalization later. Unfair it might seem but true.

The main election campaigns might be physically tasking for him, but he will very likely trounce Atiku. The other candidates don't matter at all; not worth mentioning.

Tinubu can only lose if he chooses Ganduje (bad reputation) or a Northern Christian. Or Yoruba/Yoruba ticket ....

While I agree with the first poser, concerning a Muslim -Muslim ticket, it will be a big blow to Northern Christians in APC who have largely felt marginalized in Northern politics.

Honestly, I don't envy Tinubu and APC leaders at the moment, as this is a big decision to make and it will certainly influence voting patterns in the elections.

My personal take though is that APC should go with a Northern Christian. Although the race will be tight, it will be clear to all that a balance os being sought-after. I also think that if the APC Governors sincerely and diligently work for Tinubu and combine Buhari's influence (although it has waned a bit), they should be able to take at least 45% of Northern Votes.

That 45% plus absolute majority in SW, and perhaps 40% of SS votes should be enough to coast home.

Some people are wickedly pushing the VP to utter destruction politically.

Please let the man rest, heal and reconcile with his political family. Stop these insinuations, as even if the option was available as per existing electoral laws, he will still be trounced.

Winning elections is not by good oratory skills, but rather by loyalty, competency, political structure, good financial war chest and acceptability by the political ruling class.

The VP has none of this except the war chest. Please forget Social Media hype.

Alusiizizi:
Since you pretending to be so smart perhaps you can explain where Tinubu votes are going to come from. Peter Obi takes all of SE and most of SS, all of the north and most of middle belt for Atiku and what's left for Tinubu?

I don't need to explain anything to you. As you are always in doubt, please continue to remain in doubt of Tinubu's widespread acceptance and political sagacity.

As to the bolded, it is clear that you are not adept in political analysis. Claiming that PO will sweep the SE is a fallacy, talkless of winning the SS.

Good one!

Good write-up!

PrinceOfLagos:
Knock out over a buy over primary victory?
Please

There is anger all over the country yesterday over Tinubu buy over victory but 2023 is sure gonna be an interesting year

Okay o, let's watch and see.

helinues:
That guy slept off the day they were sharing free shame.

3 candidates out of 5 yet nine come close to reality.

Awon serial losers dem

Abi

PrinceOfLagos:
The primary is over and victory bought , can we move on now

The main election is few months away and Tinubu life long ambition will not be achieved because of the northern factor and south east and south south factor which ofcourse will kot favour Tinubu

It seems like you are yet to recover?

Pele o, more "knock outs" are coming.

High level politics

Another unsung hero is Kashim Shettima. After Tinubu's outcry in Abeokuta, the man made media rounds that immediately stomped the fires while Presidential aide Yau Darauzo did same from inside the Presidency.

Tinubu is lucky, as he had loyal followers who keyed into his vision not necessarily because he bought them off.

Badgers14:
APC do not have NW in their pocket.. do we think NW will heavily vote Tinubu if there are other northern heavyweight on the ballot?

APCs success also depends heavily on how they put this primary behind them. If APC is in dissary they will struggle every where including SW.

Firstly, I don't think APC will be in disarray. The party will unite behind Tinubu.

Secondly, you are forgetting power of incumbency and the ability of the Governors to deliver their states.

Just watch and see.

OFFICIAL336:
I'll take it you have not been to North West before. Kwankwanso and Shekarau will clear more than half of Kano

That's for Gubernatorial elections. I believe the Presidential elections will be different especially if Buhari is involved in the campaigns

PaChukwudi44:
NW APC

You are overestimating Kwankwaso's expected performance in Presidential election.

He will likely take Kano State for Gubernatorial, but I don't see anything special from him with regards to the Presidential elections.

Kwankwanso's votes (for presidential) won't go beyond some LGs in Kano. Kebbi, Niger and maybe Jigawa.

NW will still present a block vote for APC, rather the party who will be hurting most from NNPP is the PDP

DeLaRue:
If Tinubu picks a Northern Christian, he will suffer a huge defeat. He has to do Moslem Moslem. It won't be a problem with voters in the SW, and many parts of the SS.

He will perform poorly in the SE, even if he chooses a Christian vice.

Let's watch and see. I personally will prefer a Muslim-Christian ticket and I am sure that this will be Asiwaju's first option. The North is dynamic and we can't expect them to reason all in one way (as per demanding for Muslim vice).

MetaPhysical:
Leave Dogara out. He will not make it.
I dont believe Tinubu will bring in any nPDP or defectors. Trust me.

Look what Abdullahi Adamu is trying to do to him. Adamu is a PDP defector.

You have a point, but I think Dogara might nick it. Though his loyalty will still be tested further.

Tinubu is running with Either Boss Mustapha or Yakubu Dogara.

Northwest is going to APC, so the battleplan will be to whittle down Atiku's base in North East.

Why the need for this?

Can we avoid using religion as a means of sowing division abeg.