Mandarin's Posts
Nairaland Forum › Mandarin's Profile › Mandarin's Posts
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ... 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 (of 31 pages)
ki02020:Greater attemntion sholud be paid to places like Ikorodu, Badagry aAlimosho LGA. Ikorodu central business district wont be a bad idea so also Alimosho CBD while badagry can be turn to tourist city with hotels etc. |
denziz:Education is the bedrock of any society and Lagos has not done enough. Government need to come up with 4years master plan to tackle infrastructural decay and insufficiency in that sector. I believe LASU is placed well within Lagos and still cannot imagine why it can't compete with UNILAG. The quality of infrastructures in Lagos institutions should be made of international standards while LASU should be legislated as a multi campus institution within the state and it can actually make enough money without students paying through their noses especially at the graduate levels. |
ayokellany:Thanks @ayokellany. The truth is that I support 50% derivation across board for all states just that my focus on this thread is Lagos hence the limiting of my attention to tax. The Niger Delta, and of course the whole of Nigeria need social engineering but distributing money across the citizenry has never grown any economy anywhere in the world. I support the NDDC to take up the responsibility of pursuing social welfare under which anything that looks like amnesty can fall.Believe me that for as long as we encourage things like this many social miscreants will keep taking advantage of the gap. If Boko Haram has not been labeled as terrorist may be an amnesty program would by now be applicable to them too. |
I strongly support the completion of Eastvwest road and 2nd Niger bridge while amnesty program should be wind down and allow NDDC do community development projects and SME's programs |
Now that voters have decided to pitch tent with APC and voted continuity in Lagos, what are the most important things that can make Lagos GDP grow better an attain an international city of repute over the next 4years of APC government growing the GDP to a region of $200billion. So what must be done: 1. Moving the numerous tank farms from Apapa to Lekki far toward Epe and constructing roads through Ijebu to link places outside Lagos.This would have reduced traffic gridlocks in some areas in Lagos by 70%. By completing the Lekki ports, some categories of imports can be handled there to decongest Apapa 2. The speedy amendments of the waterways act in the assembly to allow Lagos establish waterways guards and emergency agency so that the state government can expand the use of the waterways and ensure safety.I think this can carry 3mullion plus daily and encourage PPP investments in several billions 3. The completion of the Fashola rail track and expansion to the Abule Egba/Ikeja corridor 4. The establishment of Eko infrastructural bank that can support the development of public infrastructures 5. The completion of petroleum refineries that can supply sufficient products to Lagos and establishment of two additional depots.This can make the. 4th mail and bridge more economically viable which can be developed through PPP 6. Allow Lagos to retain ar least 35% of all tax categories in sharing formulae with federal government 7. Reconstruction of some markets and market infrastructures to reflect 21st century Lagos and bringing at least 50% into the tax regime.Places like Ladipo can be relocated to more organized place, other places like Alaba should be relocated in divisions to work against piracy.Anything that has to do with entertainments can be relocated to somewhere around Lekki for effective associations and government control 8. Lagos should be permitted to have its own metropolitan police with civil mandate and specific security permissions.I think state police should be permitted nationwide 9. APC should allow massive PPP in power generation nationwide and Lagos stands to gain more if this happens. 10. The Eko Atlantic should continue through worthy pursuits and encouragement of more Nigerian investors 11. The cost of housing in Lagos is too high and the introduction of mortgage system that favor low income earners will be of tremendous help Other areas the APC government can shine include: 1. The Pension Fund Administration PFA operations are not adding values to Nigerians and this should be reformed to benefit contributors whole they are still working.It can serve as collateral or part installment in mortgage and children education insurance.These monies are just mopped up from the economy without any visible add on to the economic well being of generality of Nigerians. 2. Insurance reforms should be pursued, bringing in micro insurance services and expanding the horizon of compulsory insurance to cover all properties used for commercial purposes or above the worth of =N10million. This will help stabilize the economy. These monies can be banked with public infrastructures bank that can be accessed by government in development. 3. The cost of accessing the internet is huge in Nigeria , this should be deregulated and competitive policies should be encouraged even at state levels. 4. Community banking should be reintroduced to capture the semi urban and rural population. Policy management on community banking should be adjusted to accommodate the weak. more to come |
EUROBOMBER:@Barcanista you are back thank God for that and thank you too Eurobomber. Like in my analysis before the presidential election in which I laid it out for Barcanista how Buhari/Osinbajo would win the election but you went on and on to concur to the contrary. It is looking to me that this thread is a fallout of that lost and a perceived but rather impossible emotional vengeance. You could have given a little place for doubts in your mind which would have freed you to enjoy your joy today. In this thread, its a call for unity not just limited to your perceived brothers but all of us.Nigeria had hurt us all by the actions and in actions of our leaders to put things right and that include President Jonathan because he also has the opportunity to fix some things and write his name in gold but has so far failed to do so. Why I do not antagonize any form of solidarity as it seems you are but I think your latest move is borne out of resentment and rather parochial thoughts due to the loss of GEJ in the last election. To you the future of Nigeria hung on GEJ's neck and nothing more but let me unravel some things for you: 1. GEJ is from a minority ethnic group but failed woefully to endear himself to Nigerians by solving some problems. Taken that these problems did not emanate from him and they have been there but wait, we elected him to solve these same nagging problems 2. Different sections of Nigeria profited from GEJ's government and I make bold to say that like the president said, Igbos are the pillar of the government and so you can feel hurt if you think your brothers are about to lose such opportunities.But wait o, these are the same people controlling the core of a government labeled as the most corrupt in the history of Nigeria. The question is, did the south east as a region actually benefited more? No but a few hawks that want the water to keep flowing and transforming their pockets 3. What has been done about the mega bucks missing and reported here and there? you see, we know that corruption is massive n Nigeria but at least Obasanjo did something, he gave us EFCC in whatever guise but GEJ killed it completely, its a shame 4. You guys failed to see the frustration on faces of Nigerians and thought we are daft not to know that a government, no matter how window dressed did fall short of expectation and you wanted us to return him to power because he is from your ethnic group or my ethnic group? that sentiment isn't enough a convincing reason 5. Politics is about bridge building and alignment and not about divisive tactics that create xenophobia, I hated it the moment started using religion and ethnicity to instigate people when election was close. 6. Your new found love with the idea of 'Easterners" is good but remember it was the architectural design of British companies and not leaders from the two sides. There is only one thing that both parties target; oil which has destroyed lives, families and joy across Africa from Gabon to Nigeria, Libya to Angola. Your matrimonial bed on this is full of nails and no one dare sleep on it. 7. The attitude of certain sect on proclaiming to be better than others is itself a sufficient ground for such to be an aberration but honestly I wish you the best. My personal lessons 1. The SE and SS can form formidable opposition and work to get greater share of the oil proceed and I support 50% for 30years and 100% afterward and that should be applicable to all other resources and infrastructures including proceeds from tax, VAT etc for the other regions as well. 2. I think the 'easterners' have always believed the 'westerners' are the traditional opposition in Nigeria and yes they have been for over 50years, the 'easterners ' too need to demonstrate their political astuteness in playing virile opposition in Nigeria and stay relevant 3. Don't ever undermine your friends or try to take your pound of flesh through emotional concept and thereby turn your friends to your enemies, you may still need them in the future, this was the mistake of GEJ and the Yoruba- he didn't handle them with maturity and he failed to realize they were the opposition to their own son Obasanjo in his first term.He should have done better. Wish you he best Barcanista but there is one thing that must be clear to you, SE&SS objectives are disimilar and that is a gap that can be exploited any day, your marriage is hanging by tissue thread! |
FUTA, based on Nigerian standard should be the best.Private universities need more time to proof their worth. FUTA products, at least I have two around me one my cousin who went from mining engineering in the school to Petroleum Engineering in USA and he is doing well in the energy industry there and another guy that I knew during his attache program in my office and was the best graduating student in his class and went to be the best also in UK university. The school is a serious one and will make u a serious student. OAU is another one, I wanted to do computer Engineering in that school but somehow my JAMB result went missing, the school actually started that course then. it has experienced hands and will label it as second. You cannot conclude that Nigerian schools are not good but government has not done enough for research and developments but when Nigerians travel after first degree they still do well, my friend just bagged a Ph.D in Mech Engr aspect, so why do we not allow our students a year or so for training in engineering firms. Nigerian students are brilliant, I cried my heart out when I couldn't pay through Oxford to study EEM or Engineering Science.I finally pitched my tent in Risk Mgts. We are good in Nigeria. |
I don't subscribe to any ethnic chauvinism but I think the day Orji Uzor Kalu mentioned Lagos as no man's land, the so much dreaded ethnic 'cocoonism' started. When FFK responded alongside a few Yoruba folks, I knew that won't be the end. Ethnic suspicion and civil war hangover is born. Nothing is wrong in political assertiveness but that must be done within the socio-cultural boundary that will up the advantage for players in the society. I will advise the Igbo leaders arrange a meeting with the Oba in council and hold peace meeting. Nothing is wrong if Igbos support a candidate with their bloc votes but nothing is also wrong if their candidate lose and the policies of the winner does not favor their cause. It is however wrong to display disdain for your host community by flaunting your political strength even if you have it,but I don't support any form of threat. I will igbos the best should Agbaje lose. |
Yoruba culture,philosophy, ethics and life. These are deep and constitute a core value of the society.Derivatives of these include: Iwa - like character, taken to be more precious than wealth.Seen as a virtue made possible through divine providence and manifested by every omoluabi, I.e responsible offspring. Agba- elders. These are the custodian of the above, respected and honored, their place in society is not weighed in monetary terms but in the essence of their wisdom Oro- wealth.important need of every man and philosophically includes good health as ilera loro I.e.health is wealth. Oye - wisdom. Especially in human resource management and administration.such leads to great respect in the society Inuire- kindness. Believed to be a natural sacrifices accepted by divine to make way, its a great virtue extoled by the Yoruba |
Political sagacity The Yoruba has been at the other end of politics in Nigeria and its citizens have maintained the place of the opposition in Nigeria. It has at various times produced Obafemi Awolowo, Adekunle Ajashin, Abraham Adesanya, Biola Gbonigi, Bola Tinubu among others.A bulk of its citizens constituted the pro democratic groups in the likes of Gani Fawehimi, Wole Soyinka, Alani Akinrinade, Femi Falana, the Kuti family among others. They have been against military rule and have made more sacrifices for democratic success than any other group in Nigeria, may be Africa. There is a seeming dimension that the Yoruba will begin to thrive politically especially in reforming Nigeria of going by the recent political occurrences is anything to go by. From AD to AC to ACN and APC, sons and daughters of Yoruba have nursed the opposition party to become a ruling party in Nigeria, this shows the capacity of the Yoruba to deploy its political intelligence in nation building and bridge building. Historically, solace is found in Awolowo who entrenched visionary leadership buoyed by his pro socialism ideology |
Interesting and amazing Africa, the continent where d unlikely rules |
pazienza:Thank you. if in your word Yoruba string houses together and still get such big towns and cities, you can imagine if they leave spaces as you claimed. The Yoruba are the most urbanized African ethnic group going by the number of township/cities they have. Population wise, the other large ethnic groups are Oromo, Hausa and Igbo. igala and Itsekiri are Yoruba family mot just in language but also historical roots while Yoruba and Egun, Ewe, Ga are rooted in Ife ancestry. The Yoruba -Igbo debate isn't the priority here and I wish u present any contrary data u may have, thank u |
warlei:we are trying to look at the place of Yoruba in 21st century Africa. The recent alignment with the North is the first time in Nigeria and the effect of this may be putting the Yoruba in the helm of affairs more than anticipated. we need contributions and criticism. |
THE YORUBA These are a people united into an ethnic group with many tribes some of which are Yagba, Ibolo, Akoko(with extensionof Akoko Edo and some parts of Owan), Oyo, Ibarapa, Ijesa, Ekiti, Ondo, Owo,Ilaje, Okun, Igbomina, Ijebu, Ekiti, Egba, Yewa, Awori, Ikale, Egun, etc. Historically,the Yoruba has several empires/kingdoms of which the most documented was the Oyo Empire which lasted over 500 years which was preceded by Ife which was older by over 900years and the Ugbo/Owa in antiquity. There were numerous other kingdoms. The Yoruba are unarguably the single largest sub Sahara African ethnic group and probably has the most urbanized population as well. The Yoruba are deeply religious people even in the time past practicing different types of traditional religions and worship of different deities as Ogun, Ifa, Sango, Obatala, Agemo, Osun, Oya, various Egungun and so on yet the people all live in peace. Today, many Yoruba still practice these traditional religion whether actively or passively but over 90% are now Christians and Moslems. The Yoruba are probably the most accommodating group in Africa and religion is played down in relationships.The Yoruba probably also has the highest number of inter marriage between Christians and Moslems in the world and also the highest number of Moslems converts to Christianity. Yoruba land is the home to the largest Pentecostal Christian gathering in Africa, home to the highest number of Universities and college graduates in black Africa. Economically, the Yoruba country though a developing area like many areas of sub Sahara Africa is one of the top three most developed and economically viable parts of sub Sahara Africa. There are peculiar characteristics of the Yoruba various tribes some of which are; the Ijebus known for their penchant for trade and they constitute the largest industrialists, the Egba are professionals, well educated and upwardly mobile, they are also the Remos, are key figures in the corporate sector in Nigeria.The ibadans and oyo constitute a huge percentage of traders and that include Ogbomosos, they are well travelled and live in their millions in the North, they also constitute the largest artisan groups of the Yoruba and are the most laid back culturally. The Ondo and Owo share peculiarity of being fashionable, have huge ego and are quite great achievers.Together with their brothers Ekiti Ijesa and Akoko, constitute the highest number of Yoruba academics and corporate work force. The Ondo and Owo are also industrialists and together with the Ijebu dictates the Owambe dimension in Nigeria. The Ekiti are also known to be egoistical but forthright and lovers of family. ....to be continued, comments are welcomed |
What happened to Fola Adeola, Ben Akabueze, Adebisi Adedeji, Edward Boyo, Gbenga Aluko, Mansur Muktar,etc we need fresh blood and a more made in Nigeria ideas. |
There are some government agencies that need reform like the National Population Commission and the EFCC. With d CV of Dangiwar Abubakar Umar listed, may be he should be tested but I will want someone that can actually look IBB in the face as well.Then we can also consider Falana or a tough Ekiti/Ondo man. ln case Ribadu loses out in the election I will want him engaged in reforming the police may be as the head of police commission or agency. I think its about time Fola Adeola step up as Finance Minister or CBN governor while Monsur Muktar as Economic planning, Fashola as Energy boss, and if GMB can retain Adesina in Agric it will be nice.Oby can go back to education. |
Like your speculations.ok let me try too: 1. Monsur Muktar - Economic Planning 2. Raji Fashola - Energy 3. Rotimi Amaechi - SGF 4. Oby Ezekwezeli - Education 5. Abike Dabiri - 6. Pat Utomi - Economic Adviser 7. Garba Shehu- Adviser on media & publicity 8. Fayemi kayode- Internal Affairs |
Assessment of the two candidates and what Lagos stand to gain from them and their parties should dictate to Lagosians. Lets look at important things Lagos need and who can do them: 1. There are projects that need profound Federal support for accelerated completion like the Lekki deep seaport, the fast train, 4th mainland bridge, and Energy growth, the yellow BRT lane and oil refinery. I think these are sufficient enough to push Lagosians toward APC as Agbaje may not have the political clout to ensure sufficient Federal support for all of these. 2. Institutional Framework established by Fashola is one of the most admirable of his government.LASAA, LASTRA,LAMATA etc are sources of employment to thousands and have ensured greater efficiency in governance. I think Lagosians won't want to see these dismantled and go with Ambode. Agbaje's camp may be more interested in satisfying their supporters by over bloating these institutions which will render them inefficient. 3. With shrinking government revenue in the country, I think there is the need for Lagos to elect a leader that knows the system quite well and can at least sustain the momentum more so that attention of the APC power bloc has shifted to Abuja, I believe this will give more room to the governor in Lagos. Ambode seem to have upper hand in this area,Agbaje is not used to public service. 4.Human Resources available around the APC Fashola machinery are lacking, to be honest, even though they can do better much better, I don't see such around Agbaje. To me Agbaje has not come out to demonstrate what he will do differently and how Lagos is the commercial and intellectual capital of Nigeria and it can benefit from the central government may be for the first time. If the Igbo people vote in bloc as they did for GEJ it may still not ensure Agbaje's victory though will make strong mark but it will ultimately work against their economic interest in the long run and see a more pragmatic commitment to fusing their political will into the government to economic gains. I think Lagosians should vote Ambode for those stated reasons |
Assessment of the two candidates and what Lagos stand to gain from them and their parties should dictate to Lagosians. Lets look at important things Lagos need and who can do them: 1. There are projects that need profound Federal support for accelerated completion like the Lekki deep seaport, the fast train, 4th mainland bridge, and Energy growth, the yellow BRT lane and oil refinery. I think these are sufficient enough to push Lagosians toward APC as Agbaje may not have the political clout to ensure sufficient Federal support for all of these. 2. Institutional Framework established by Fashola is one of the most admirable of his government.LASAA, LASTRA,LAMATA etc are sources of employment to thousands and have ensured greater efficiency in governance. I think Lagosians won't want to see these dismantled and go with Ambode. Agbaje's camp may be more interested in satisfying their supporters by over bloating these institutions which will render them inefficient. 3. With shrinking government revenue in the country, I think there is the need for Lagos to elect a leader that knows the system quite well and can at least sustain the momentum more so that attention of the APC power bloc has shifted to Abuja, I believe this will give more room to the governor in Lagos. Ambode seem to have upper hand in this area,Agbaje is not used to public service. 4.Human Resources available around the APC Fashola machinery are lacking, to be honest, even though they can do better much better, I don't see such around Agbaje. To me Agbaje has not come out to demonstrate what he will do differently and how Lagos is the commercial and intellectual capital of Nigeria and it can benefit from the central government may be for the first time. If the Igbo people vote in bloc as they did for GEJ it may still not ensure Agbaje's victory though will make strong mark but it will ultimately work against their economic interest in the long run and see a more pragmatic commitment to fusing their political will into the government to economic gains. I think Lagosians should vote Ambode for those stated reasons |
Awo picked Yoruba from the backside of African sluggishness and without precedence built the most advanced black man made region in Africa.No one can match Awo's pedigree yet but Tinubu is exceptionally brilliant.Awo was a socialist,one of the reasons for conspiracy against him but Tinubu is a capitalist. |
forgiveness:IBADAN is a gold mine for all those who do not know of the great treasures of that city. I advise all youths who think they can make do with =N=50k salary/income to relocate to that city, you can even make do with =N=30k and a decent self contain apartment somewhere. Its a big city, really big that you can get a plot of land for =N=300K or less and start a house of your own. There are loads of places that are new sites/settlements that are far better that new cities of Lagos. Ibadan is a place you can train your children the way you want them to be, to be exposed and conservative, to be religious and respectful and that city has some of the best schools at all levels. If you are not a rich man you cannot enjoy Abuja, anything less than =N350k is suffering in Abuja and you will need a good car while that city can be boring except you are ready to cough out thousands to escape boredom or make do with joints in the outskirt of town. Enugu is calm and serene but more expensive and too homogeneous. One of the beauty of Ibadan is the presence of people from other climes which present you opportunities to build companionship outside your cultural mentality. In the next 5years, I see Ibadan competing with Ogun in industrial capacity and more in commerce as I also hope to get a nice structure there. |
What I think Buhari need in this election is majority votes in Southwest and about 40% of votes cast in NC. Obviously, the NW and SE, SS and plus Edo has little difference even if all voters voted the NW and all of SS and SE is a difference of about a million and you can guess the two may cancel themselves out leaving the NE. Turn out was low in d SW as I speculated and it will be similar in some parts of SE and SS. To me,I think Ogun turn out is disappointing moreso that Osinbajo is from there but not bad for Buhari |
If that's how they want to live, its good for them.The Yoruba probably has the highest number of Muslims converts to Christianity per population in the world.Quite a number of families are like the Fashola's and you can't be any judge over your brother. The Yoruba are culturally inclined people and its one of the most liberal people in the world |
If these are prophesies and prophets say pray and you prayed what do u think will happen? God is one and can't be saying different things, many speak out of cleverly crafted out analysis or emotion. People have roles to play in bringing prophesies to pass as well and I think God is the God of all. The prophesy is whosoever will favor Nigerians will get elected and then we will revisit your post, I simply don't believe these as the Bible says" woe unto him that says thus sayeth the Lord when God has said nothing" |
I think Nigeria should begin to focus on much younger generation from 2019. Am looking at Nigerians with sufficient exposure and capacity to generate ideas that can bring serious minded people together to move Nigeria forward: EAST 1. Frank Iweke Jnr : Was impressed with him as a young man and now with the NESG.I think he can climb up to that level by then. 2. Anyim Pius Anyim : Slowly and steadily growing the ladder. He is sort of quiet and have learnt governance. 3. Rotimi Amaechi: His experience and capacity to appeal to Nigerians can help him more so of his recent popularity for opposing a sitting government and his idealistic mindset. NORTH 1. Rabiu Kwankwaso : His performance and dedication to development in a laid back society. His embrace of political reality of national plurality and economic empowerment approach stand him tall. 2. Aminu Tambuwal : Young, virile and matured mind.I believe he can dream big, he is a peopled person. 3. Nuhu Ribadu: if he should win the governorship election, it will be a plus to him plus his exposure , he should be good to go WEST 1. Raji Fashola : He stands tall in Nigeria and I do not have to say much. Am proud of him being a complete product of Nigerian university and had demostrated leadership skills. 2. Yemi Osinbajo: His qualities are exposed to all to see, passionate about change and capacity to effect it, he's a bomb. 3. Kayode Fayemi : Forget that he lost in Ekiti, he's an idealist, coordinated and exposed, he can coordinate human resources and can effect change |
MCMLXXVI:Sir, its called scenario testing. The truth is the gap that will be between Buhari and Jpnathan in Plateau can't be more than 20% say a 40-60% return. Buhari may not win up to 10% in the Southeast while Jonathan may also not get up to 10%"in the Northwest. Edo remains a swing state |
1 ABIA 1,396,162 1,177,520 2 ADAMAWA 1,559,012 1,381,571 3 AKWA-IBOM 1,680,759 1,587,566 4 ANAMBRA 1,963,173 1,658,967 5 BAUCHI 2,054,125 1,778,380 6 BAYELSA 610,373 546,372 7 BENUE 2,015,452 1,607,800 8 BORNO 1,934,079 1,407,777 9 CROSS RIVER 1,175,623 963,929 10 DELTA 2,275,264 1,921,627 11 EBONYI 1,074,273 848,392 12 EDO 1,779,738 1,218,734 13 EKITI 732,021 511,790 14 ENUGU 1,429,221 1,223,606 15 FCT 881,472 569,109 16 GOMBE 1,120,023 1,069,635 17 IMO 1,803,030 1,707,449 18 JIGAWA 1,831,276 1,756,320 19 KADUNA 3,407,222 3,174,519 20 KANO 4,975,701 4,112,039 21 KATSINA 2,827,943 2,620,096 22 KEBBI 1,470,648 1,372,630 23 KOGI 1,350,883 926,013 24 KWARA 1,142,267 884,996 25 LAGOS 5,822,207 3,767,647 26 NASARAWA 1,242,667 1,048,053 27 NIGER 2,014,317 1,682,058 28 OGUN 1,829,534 904,647 29 ONDO 1,524,655 1,110,844 30 OSUN 1,407,107 1,030,051 31 OYO 2,415,566 1,639,967 32 PLATEAU 2,001,825 1,508,585 33 RIVERS 2,537,590 2,127,837 34 SOKOTO 1,611,929 1,527,004 35 TARABA 1,340,652 1,270,889 36 YOBE 1,099,970 824,401 37 ZAMFARA 1,495,717 1,435,452 Total 68,833,476 55,904,272 I have been looking at the possible case scenario that can happen at the coming Presidential election next week based on the available data released by INEC as at 12th March 2015. In all, 55,904,272 registered voters have collected their PVCs and let's look at some possibilities: Lets take 80% voters' turnout across board which means we will take available figures as absolute voters per state although i foresee high, moderate and fair turn out across the states. First : States according to the strength of each candidate - This is a general knowledge that ether candidates of PDP and the APC has their traditional states where they are strong and will capture at least 75% of votes cast. JONATHAN 1. ABIA-1, 177,520 2. ENUGU-1,223,606 3. ANAMBRA -1,658,967 4. EBONYI - 848,392 5. IMO -1,707,449 6. RIVERS - 2,127,837 7. CROSS RIVER- 963,929 8. AKWA IBOM-1,587,566 9. BAYELSA-546,372 10. DELTA- 1,921627 11. BENUE- 1,607,800 12. 1,508,585 TOTAL - 16,879,650 BUHARI 1. SOKOTO-1,527,004 2. ZAMFARA- 1,435,452 3. KEBBI - 1,372,630 4. KATSINA- 2,620,096 5. NIGER- 1,682,058 6. KADUNA- 3,174,519 7. JIGAWA- 1,756,320 8. YOBE - 824,401 9. BORNO - 1,407,777 10. ADAMAWA- 1,381,571 11. BAUCHI-1,778,380 12. GOMBE - 1,069,635 13. NASARAWA-1,048,053 14. KANO- 4,112,039 15. KWARA - 884,996 TOTAL -26,074,931 SOME SOUTHWEST STATES 1. LAGOS - 3,767,647 2. OGUN - 904,647 3. OSUN - 1,030,051 4. OYO- 1,639,967 TOTAL - 7,342,312 SWING STATES 1. EDO -1,218,734 2. EKITI - 511,790 3. ONDO - 1,110,844 4. TARABA - 1,270,889 5. FCT - 569,109 6. KOGI - 926,013 TOTAL - 5,607,379 I have grouped these states according to the strength of each candidate. Now, many people will argue on these swing states but believe me both candidates have their strengths and weaknesses there which may compensate for each other. I will freeze some political factors and look at scenarios with these figures to see some possibilities. 1. if equal turn out is achieved across all states and voters vote according to strength of each candidate AND LETS SAY THE SWING STATES ARE SHARED 50% each include some southwest states as indicated above: JONATHAN WINS = 16,879,650 + 3,671,156+2,803,689.5 = 23,354,495.5 BUHARI WINS = 26,074,931+3,671,156+2,803,689.5 = 32,549,776.5 VERDICT : BUHARI WINS outrightly 2. Supposing Jonathan has 25% of votes cast in Buhari's strong holds and Buhari has 10% in Jonathan's strongholds while Buhari wins 60% in some Southwest states and both share swing states 50-50 : JONATHAN WINS =6,518,732.75+15,191, 685+2,936,934.8+2,803,689.5 = 27,451,042.05 BUHARI WINS = 19,556,198.25+1,687,965.5+4,405,387.2+2,803,689.5 = 28,453,240.45 BUHARI WINS by slim margin 3. Supposing Buhari wins 85% of votes cast in his strong areas, Jonathan win 90% in his own, Jonathan win majority in swing states say 60% and BUHARI wins 70% in some southwest states : JONATHAN WINS = 3,911,239.65+15,191,685+3,364,427.4+2,202,693.6 = 24,670,045.65 BUHARI WINS = 31,234,226.35 A whole lots of scenario modeling can be done by you but realistically. If based on factors that can influence this election we can give 1. Buhari strong areas = between 80-90% of votes cast 2. Jonathan strong areas returning between 75-90% votes cast 3. Buhari wins at least 50% in some southwest states(realistically, he wont get less than 60%) of all votes cast 4. Jonathan and Buhari share swing states 50-50( Note, its not certain if Fayose's influence in Ekiti will matter, if it does, Jonathan wins but the total voting population is not sufficient to upturn results as Buhari is popular in Kogi and Taraba) Low registration and PVC collection is not good for GEJ as pattern revealed Northerners can always endure long hours to vote unlike in the south where many wont do such thing. Another factor is Lagos. THERE IS A STRONG INDICATION THAT OVER A MILLION PEOPLE MAY NOT VOTE FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS 1. Some of registered voter actually registered close to their places of work and this affect a huge population of those that dwell in the outskirt towns of Ogun state 2. This is similarly going to affect alot of Igbo voters that registered close to their shops if they live far away means they wont be able to also vote. 3. Many Lagosians may not just vote anticipating violence or just indifference, sitting at home and watching television, this is where those who mobilized for registration in 2011 will likely have more votes. Let me stop and read comments |
maestroferddi:Thanks, the same Andrew Yakubu that served in NNPC or another.The man who knew of the mismagement at the NNPC and what wrongfully removed.That's for another day. Esther Nenadi that was denied by women group in her open declaration for GEJ. I don't want to join issues with politicians but just doing an academic pursuit. I want a state by state criticism and will listen to all reasonable permutations. Where is Barcanista? laughs, thanks guy, this is an objective analysis and I have evn toned it down. |
PapaBrowne:Thank you. I know someone whose family lost 14 children in the Chibok adoption, remember we are still praying for their return. Ask the displaced folks and understand their feelings, its more of their government failure to protect them until the late hour when thousands of lives have been lost. Religion in the equation is valid but will shockingly come as a no factor in Kaduna.Am telling you that these assumptions are pure academic and I want intelligent criticism. I understand the concern of people over Taraba,Nasarawa and Plateau, its important people who do not have any stake will just permutate. |
PapaBrowne:Thanks sir for your thoughts. I was involved in a research recently and wish to state that there are facts behind these figures and estimates.I see it as purely academic and not to raise undue hopes for party supporters or mislead people's expectations. You can assume but. I think the time is near for this result and I can bet in a free and fair election ,at least 85% accuracy. Kaduna is going to be different and Southern Kaduna which has a huge population of Igbo and Yoruba and ethnic groups of Southern Kaduna will majorly have igbo voters in support of Jonathan.Religion has no serious play in this because of Osinbajo, call and ask the Christian community there. El Rufai is damn too popular. The truth is this election will defy many long standing ethnic and religious sentiments. Secondly, in the best case scenario for GEJ is a 30% votes there which alongside fair performances in Taraba, Nasarawa and Adamawa will give maybe a total 20% of votes cast to GEJ, now, that will be a good performance for GEJ because Buhari will win massive in remaining states and get up to at least 40% in Benue and Plateau. I just left Kogi and Edo are swing state and not Nasarawa. So if you agree that voters turn out will be a huge factor in this election let me know because the number of votes in the southwest may nit be impressive in Ondo and Ekiti, maybe both of them can give a total of a million votes.Its difficult to say for certainty who will win in both states and sitting governors and Osinbajo factors will be at play at varying degrees. if they chose the path of ethnicity because of a Yoruba VP its a great victory for Buhari.I actually believe Edo will be shared while GEJ will win in all of East and Niger Delta. |
maestroferddi:I don't know what you mean by ignorant exercise, I've done this bases on objectivity and l believe its fair to both sides. Let me tell you that Benue, Ekiti, Ondo, Kogi and Taraba ate states you can't bank your bet |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ... 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 (of 31 pages)