₦airaland Forum

@EUROBOMBER. You have allowed ethnic sentiments to overshadow reasoning in your analysis and for the sake of all dreaming of Biafra you need deep thinking.
There are a lot of interests in Nigeria and in the best way to have a Biafra is to seek for Confederation or Regionalism where Biafra will be an autonomous nation within a bigger Nigeria and the Igbo will win on both sides.

Of great strategic importance in winning any war is the Middle Belt because they are more in the military and are swing regions. In forming alignments the Yoruba are related to and can form a united front with groups in Kogi including Igala and Tiv together with their Kwara kinsmen.

Who are the allieds of the Igbo? You are just being emotional and I know you do not want a war you cannot end.

barcanista:
Yes, Mr President deserves some commendation on his recent feat. Mr President has been talking and campaigning since May 29 amid cheers by his supporters. We all should rise up and give President Muhammadu Buhari ovation. I will tell you why the President deserves such honor..

1. Mr President directionless?
Just yesterday (June 22) he ordered for the dismantling of Military check points nationwide. 24hrs later he reversed himself after the Governors "talked sense into him".

2. An Empty Treasury?
Same yesterday President Buhari met with Aso Rock's Press corps and informed them that the government of exPresident Jonathan left a "virtually empty" treasury. The President however forgot to tell the press corps that exPresident Jonathan left $29.865 billion in External Reserve (as of March 2015). www.thisdaylive.com/articles/nigeria-s-external-reserves-fall-below-30-billion/205171/
Mr President also forgot to tell Nigerians that Jonathan left $2.07billion in Excess Crude Account as at May 2015 www.dailypost.ng/2015/05/25/excess-crude-account-okonjo-iweala-exposes-governors/
How can Mr President say the treasury is almost empty when we have almost $30b in External reserve and $2b in ECA?

3. Mr President Agrees To Share Excess Crude Account:
Mr President has agreed in principle to set up a committee headed by Mr Osinbajo in order to "SHARE" the money in the Excess Crude Account. Mr President did not ask the states what they did with the N2.925trn they received from the ECA between 2011 and 2014 after cajoling exPresident Jonathan( N966.6 billion in 2011, N816.3 billion in 2012, N859.4 billion in 2013 and N282.8 in 2014)www.dailypost.ng/2015/05/25/excess-crude-account-okonjo-iweala-exposes-governors/.
Funny enough the same President that was talking of "virtually" empty treasury 24 hours ago is talking of "Sharing" the left over 24hrs later.

4. Buhari to Recover Stolen Money...Really?
It was shocking to hear that Buhari has vowed to recover "stolen" wealth. The same Buhari that would rather withdraw the N21billion corruption charges against Timpre Sylva instead of forcing him to vomit it? Or the same Buhari that instead of pursuing the N15billion corruption case against Abdulaziz Nyako rewarded him with Senatorial seat? Or the Buhari that would rather fraternise with exGov Murtala Nyako instead of taking back the multibillions he stole from Adamawa state.

5. The DSS No Longer Relevant Under Mr President
The Department of State Security is statutory responsible for internal intelligence. No serious leader can afford to shut out his country's internal intelligence unit during security meeting especially at a time of insurgency. But our dear president has never deemed it fit to invite the DG of DSS to ANY security meeting since he came to power. How will the President understand the status of the intelligence gathered to properly strategise against the insurgents and overall security without the input of the nations internal intelligence agency?


Don't you think President Muhammadu Buhari deserves a standing ovation?

Barcanista, I can ,understand that you are intended of being a strong opposition to the current government which in itself is a good thing as it will afford the populace to think with open minds but sometimes brother do it with sense and earn my respect. Please, research well before you post anything at least for the sake of your followers.

Buhari said he met an almost empty treasury for a country that sold crude oil above $80 for over 4years. Tell me the excess crude account should be that meagre? honestly you should bury your head in shame.
The President has not made any appointment into EFCC and so those appointed by GEJ are still there, you cannot say he is a party to setting Sylva free, just wait till the reform hit you in the face and PDP guys will have to cough out what they have swallowed and i believe those in APC too will also follow suit.
Barcanista,try and improve on your presentation and stop whipping emotions, i take you to be more mature and professional

jpphilips:
Subsidy in Nigeria has become our most controversial economic reality, without an introduction, Subsidy interference (partial withdrawal, total withdrawal and continuity) has proved beyond doubt to be fatal to the Nigerian people.

Arguments from all quarters over the years from the government and the media, leave a lot of holes that one could hardly make a comprehensive analysis of why each step was taken, ie if we could bifurcate the lies from the reality.

Personally, the only viable solution I could phantom is a restructure of critical areas of our Economy that will not necessitate a removal of subsidy but will render subsidy irrelevant, rightly put, subsidy phasing out. With a government enthroned on the platform of sincerity of purpose, Nigerians may want to consider the following strategy;

Phase 1:


Probe and forensic auditing of the existing subsidy regimen;

This is necessary to curb the inefficiencies in the system, recently, the Nigerian Failed Ex Minister for Finance paid "FOREX differential" as part of the subsidy regimen amongst other inefficiencies, that is so wrong to say the least. Even when the CBN issue FOREX to importers at the interbank exchange rate, yet we have to pay for the differential?
I admit there was an economic need to devalue the naira, the only justification for that payment was that relevant stakeholders were not carried along including those importers.
This is the latest inefficiency in the subsidy regimen, who knows what else is there? In 2012 it was revealed that storage of pet. products forms part of our subsidy and I ask why?
the answers didn't really add up because I have personally perused the DPR guideline for issuance of such license and storage is an integral part of it, how people without storage capacity, or people who rent storage facilities were issued those license, is where the audit will do the needful.
Issue of port delays to attract demurrage, import waivers, racketeering and other unscrupulous activities, NNPC subsidized products sold to Private depot owners at higher prices etc. I am convinced that a thorough fix in this area will save us about 15% of our current subsidy expenditure. Duration: (3 months)


Phase 2:

Power:[color=#000099]

[color=#000099]You cannot touch subsidy without fixing power, since both are a function of each other both in sustainability and cost, since the FG does not have the cash to execute a comprehensive power approach, then, Prof. Osibanjo's balkanization of the National grid comes in handy here.
During the process of restructuring Nigeria's transmission infrastructure, preference should be given to towns with high population density, it is estimated that a Nigerian home, consumes an average of 45l of petroleum products in 24hrs, therefore, If the number of homes per city could be estimated as 1/3 of the population of that city,

then Lagos [13.4m people/2.5m homes (2010 figures)], Kano (1.2m homes ), Abuja (900,000 homes), Ibadan (765,000 homes), Kaduna (500,000 homes) , Portharcourt (900,000), Aba (400,000), ogbomosho (360,000 homes), Maiduguri (359,100 homes), Benin (340,000), Zaria (300,000) and Jos (305,000) should receive a minimum of 17hrs electricity daily, balanced 9hrs during the day and 6hrs in the night, subsidy is expected to reduce between 25-30%. Already, Lagos, Abuja, Portharcourt, Aba and Benin all have existing IPPs, with 45% of subsidy receipt gone, then we go to phase 3 (duration: one and half years)


Phase 3:


Trade off Kerosene:

There are a whole lot of intrigues surrounding the Nigerian Subsidy regimen on Kerosene, a plethora of Kerosene explosions and the 2012 incident when the FG announced the removal of fuel subsidy surprisingly, price of air travel doubled, it raised some legitimate questions if the Nigerian kerosene regimen subsidizes the Aviation industry and I ask why?

The downtrodden who are supposed to be the legitimate beneficiary of kerosene subsidy, hardly have the means to patronize the gas stations for the product, hence they rely on the surface tank retailers or the hawkers, at what price do they get it? just ask around and confirm.

The truth is this; Kerosene subsidy ends at the NNPC mega station, if you are lucky.
Then the airlines who are the major bulk buyers cart it away and the distributors are glad selling to them for quick money, so the surface tank operators get from the private tank farm owners who get from the importers at an unsubsidized rate, hence the distribution chain of kerosene, from Importer to the consumer is a huge fraud that doesn't need to be fixed, so why do we sustain it?

Air travel is a luxury so anyone who wish to embark on such luxury should be ready to pay for it, based on this assessment, Kerosene subsidy does not benefit anyone, except the aviation industry, if manufacturing industries could give up their AGO subsidy, why not Aviation? this move will reduce subsidy by 20%. (duration: 2 weeks consultations with relevant stakeholders) With 65% of subsidy gone,


Phase 4


Lean Government and Restructure of NPDC: It is only fair that Allison Madueke is arrested and charged for treason for crimes against the Nigerian people, NPDC by proxy. According to PENGASSEN, NPDC produces 170,000bopd, a figure I doubt seriously because by the end of 2013, NPDC is struggling to produce 90,000bopd, considering the mess Madueke made in the industry with her fraudulent indigenisation policy, I will give NPDC a fair 130,000bopd estimate for the sake of this analysis.

All the oil blocks, production platforms, Marginal wells diverted, sold or on lease by madueke including the recently divested SPDC interests should be returned to NPDC with immediate effect.
Buhari must recall the PIB from the Senate and strike off all the fraud there in and make the following changes;

*NPDC oil production will no longer be part of the Nigerian JV oil controlled by senate approved budgetary benchmark. By so doing, the senate must accept a lean government structure, that will cause a significant drop in government revenue (temporarily) but with a reduced recurrent expenditure, it is workable.

* NPDC operatorship license Must be revoked; NPDC will enter a fresh operatorship agreement with a company that qualifies with a track record of managing oil and gas production facilities. Agreement should be one that gives room for NNPC/operator expansion of production output.

* PRCN, WRCN and KRCN will have their operatorship Licence revoked, NNPC will award operatorship license to qualified refining companies to manage her operations, agreement should be one that gives room for operator/NNPC expansion of refining output.

* All the operators of NPDC, WRCN, PRCN and KRCN will be required to inherit their existing staff, train and deploy them and kindly lay off the unproductive ones to maximize efficiency.

* Export Prohibition law for NPDC output except as refined products

* Diversion of Petroleum products must attract a life sentence with no option of fine.

* Workman compensation for oil and gas workers ( a clear sharing formula for personnel charge between the contractor and the employee), an implementation agency must be enshrined in the PIB (to avoid union wahala)

Phase 5

Rebasing the NPDC production:

It is expected that the NPDC oil output is rebased, since the existing 130,000bopd of NPDC oil has been detached from the JV oil and SPDC interest divested, there is need to revalue the NPDC oil, starting from cost of production to logistics, that cost will be less than the international crude price, when fed to the refinery, the refining cost is borne by the trio RCN, I expect such products to be less than 87naira per liter.

Phase 6

Turn around Maintenance of all the refineries,


after which two different sources of petroleum products will exist in the country;

1) The trio RCN products
2) Imported Govt subsidized products,

With product 1 cheaper than product 2, interest will shift from 2 to 1 and subsidy will drop to 5%. As NPDC output grows, it is expected that new private refineries will come on board to utilize the new output that will further increase the RCN output and subsidy will die a natural death.

Some of the phases can run concurrently depending on how fast the Government desire results. Any government that attempts a total withdrawal in one day will end up clueless like her predecessor.
Subsidy removal requires a blueprint that will be followed over a period of time.
cc Moderators for FP attention
cc Vulcan

I am seriously opposed to subsidy removal.But let me state that your position isn't bad either. Taken that all your stated reforms are excited but I will state my position:
Before we can attain 100% local production of all our petroleum products consumption it will be at least 24 months if we start today, this is because the technology to do it isn't domiciled within our country.
Also, one critical factor to import cost of products is the exchange rate to the dollar. The current mangers of out MPR are to me, have not demostrated sufficient knowledge of the game. Devaluing the naira is criminal why those economic hawks responsible for such have not been put behind bars.
Removing subsidy is making the populace pay for the inefficiencies of government over the years.
Before you can deregulate, get new refineries on stream, sell crude to them at prices below the international market and grow the domestic consumption market by ensuring more consumers are built. The future of Nigeria lies in building its own domestic market which has hundreds of billions in gaps.
What about the gas market. Generating electricity through gas and growing industrial and domestic consumptions is the way forward. We are a weak party in international negotiations but if we have a thriving local market we will become strong.
So what is the way forward: quickly reform the CBN, I mean now to be responsive to current challenges and seek to build the domestic market.

Igbos are the greatest beneficiary of Nigeria as they are traders especially the Anambra folks.Howbeit the wrongs that can be alluded to contravening economic growth within their ranks, they are traders making money through :
1. Imports from abroad that kills Nigerian industries, more so imports of items that kills Nigerians like expired and rebranded drugs, and so on. Well its not limited to any ethnic group but what can people do to get money.
2. Nigerian spirit, the Igbo are very energetic and pursue their goals with unwavering synergy, I love that.
3. They make more money selling outside the southeast and outside Nigeria, they are distributors of goods and so their prosperities depend on Nigeria more than others.
ARE THE YORUBA ACTUALLY LAZY
I don't agree as Yoruba has their areas of dominance even in trading. They are much in hands and crafts as craftsmen, they dominate that area in the north, they dominate some trading sectors and are competing with the Igbo in importation. The largest indigenous industries in Nigeria are owned by them and they are the best administrators and business strategists therein in Nigeria.
EVERY ETHNIC GROUP HAS ITS OWN VALUES
Many people feel money is the ultimate thing. In rich and much more advanced countries, suicide rates are more than poor countries because as much as you place premium on money, you are reduced to nothing. As good as money and great wealth can represent comfort et al, it can become an inhibitor to discovering a life of peace that is why money rituals, drug pushing, imports of contrabands etc cannot guarantee sustainable wealth and joy. Traders who support their job with rituals and so on only add sorrow to their struggles.
In Nigeria of today, I admire the Yoruba though you can call them lazy or whatever they are the only ethnic group(not excepting others) that build institutions based on different levels of values.
To them there is a place for hard work, integrity, and wealth. They have economic, cultural and religious institutions that are distinct. Religion and culture are separate, spirituality is important, and culture is admirable.They have a more complete society.
They are builders, they have religious organizations, social organizations, etc that can compete in the world in their little ways. Every complete society must have the wealthy, the rich, the average and the poor, that is what you see. It must have history which is why you see those rust roofs and must have a future which is why parents forms bedrocks for their folks.
People, no one is better than the other but time and chance happen to them all

When rating universities based on performance in the field then sentiments are not sufficient to claim any spot but objective analysis.
One of those things I cherish about schools is the place of their products in the organized sectors, policy making offices and innovation.How schools add values to the economy and the society at large.
Another area to look at it is the graduate and professional courses they offer, schools are not rated through chest beating and all the bla bla.
A look at Nigerian Universities will point a clear cut direction to you that old generation universities are in charge. Check out CEOs, MDs, Directors and major decision makers in top organizations in Nigeria and see where they got their trainings, not less than 60% of them passed through one of OAU, UI and Unilag either at undergraduate or graduate levels. Today, even at the middle levels, you can't write off their dominance. Unilag especially excel in graduate trainings and in some fields stands ahead like MBA programs, Insurance and Risk Managements where its product dominates, and excellent in liberal arts and medicine. Of course you can't dispute UI and medicine, that school alongside OAU has the most experienced professors in Nigeria.OAU is an all rounder school and can only be followed by FUTA and Uniben in engineering.
ABU is the best in the North alongside UniJos and has amazing infrastructures because its politically connected to the stream of all political leaders in the North but it cannot compete so much in private sector and entrepreneurship.
Coming down to the middle cadre in offices, you begin to, on the average recognize the impact of such schools as FUNAAB, FUTA and Unilorin, they are good. In specificities, FUTO, LAUTECH, FUTminna, EKSU, UNN are good in some fields, LASU is fairly good in medicine and Law for instance.Yabatech in accounting and arts.
I have had first hand experience of some private universities' performances, convenant is good, largely young fast learners but find handling stress quite challenging. Babcock and even Bowen, those working with me at the moment are sharp.
All in all, it boils down to individuals but you cannot but acknowledge what is good in these old schools.

When a state like Osun can no longer fulfil its obligations it can be concluded that its technically bankrupt. Although Osun is not the only culpable state in this case, there are 18 of them and if not for oil derivation for some of the Niger Delta state, the story would have been the same. For those clamouring for new states, my advise is perish such dreams and work on an economic stability of the current ones.

Secenerio analysis and forecasts are needed by states to build virile economy for example, now that United States is the largest producer of oil in the world and wont be needing Nigerian oil and if the British should shun Nigeria oil and Iran beging to produce and the price of oil drop to like $25-$30 a barrel, how will states fare? These are possibilties that should open the eyes of the leadrship. We must admit that Jonathan and his crew were TOTAL failure and am particularly dismayed that a professionally trained economist in Okonjo Iweala failed to conduct scenario testing by just looking at inernational politics and the rise of fracking in United States after oil price was between $80-$110 a barrel. That was a colossal failure on her part as the coordinating minister of the economy.

However, state governors are greater failures for not seeking to look for how to use their oil allocations to buiild avenues for wealth generation for their states, they screwed the whole country, its a shame.

Ogbeni Aregbesola should begin to have a rethink on his socialism leaning and pay his workers, he must pay them and likewise all the governors of these 18 states. HAVE THEY NOT RECEIVED THEIR OWN SALARIES? what about security votes and all those infllated contacts? they should just pay workers.

Guys, you can all call Tinubu anything but we have to give it to him and Fashola for looking into the future and seeking ways to move Lagos forward without trickles from oil. As of today, without oil in Nigeria only Lagos can function well and will do much better if mismanagement is tackled. There is no regional exception to this but we must admit that a lot of these politicians committed too much resources to the last election and who is suffering for it now? Also, the civil service reform of Bisi Akande was jettison by Oyinlola PDP in order to win sympathy and Aregbe could not revert because that will be politically suicidal, Nigeria need a honest approach to governance.

You can imagine that Fayose's stomach infrastructure will have to be suspended because Ekiti is also in the limbo and politicians commit over 60% of states incomes to politiking and its like that all over. Akwa Ibom cannot feel it because of steady oil derivation incomes but take away the oil and the state will be among the poorest in southern Nigeria.
For those shouting BIAFRA and NIGER DELTA REPUBLIC or Lower Niger have you done your scenario testing with oil at $10 or at $5 and see if you can survive?

To me, Nigeria must focus on building the domestic market, practice Regional federalism and begin to focus on delivering economic policies of emancipation.

President Buhari will have to learn fast on the business of politiking. There were many hands in the emergence of Bikola Saraki :
1. The Atiku group : As a way of proving themselves and positioning themselves against next presidentia election. Atiku's heart is a mobile one and will roost in any party that will guarrannttee his long held dream of becoming the president. The essence of this coup is to position themselves to be relevant and be at a vantage position to negotiate position for influencial posts and escape corruption probes. Ultimately, its reducing ACN's stronghold on PMB and position for 2019

2. The Ex-Governors group : These are former governors some of whom also have presidential hopes ahead like Kwankwasor and the PDP guys. Their own is to immune themselves against any anti grafts that may be too tough to handle when EFCC begin to work.
Another subgroup include Tambuwal and the young guns who want to reduce the influence of Tinubu so as to send signal to PMB that he need to reckon with them.

I make bold to say that it was not the politiking of PDP but that of these power brokers that are trying to strategize for two core reasings of grabbing power especially if PMB wont be contesting in 2019 and to escape activities of anti graft agencies.

Tinubu should just take things easy and learn about national politics. He should draw Fashola closer and let him get a good rapport with the President because none of these players can defeat him in 2019 if he should stand. He will be good as Chief of Staff or even SGF or Energy Minister. He should support those from his camp already in the good books of Buhari and help them to succeed like Fayemi while he must place smart by taking the battle to PDP in their base.
Nigerians want dividents of democracy and anything short of that will rubbish all his achievements. Period.

I think this will go the way of Buhari certificate issue. The issue will drag till this man would almost finish his tenure.There will be need for copies of the judgment served on him to be retrieved from the States.I think lawyers have now made themselves tools in the hands of politicians and this one, I guess won't fly.

dustmalik:
Yes. it's also the largest indigenous ethnic group in the whole of Africa.

Hausa is not an ethnic group but a language spoken by millions across Africa. Its in Nigeria they have been identified by the language.

gohome:
Do you know what your government earn annually? Your budget is 4 Trillion (deficit). Even if binge drinking and patronizing prostitues every night stops, you are flat broke. binge drinking and patronizing prostitues every night and you double that figure to 8 Trillion, you are still flat broke.

In this case, your security lies in building infrastruture (Military, Agriculture, Education). It does not lie in fueling your generator. You have proven that you did not die the last week. You have proven that when the price was almost doubled from 65 naira to 97 naira, you did not die. Infact you bought more cars. Your poorer neighbours are not dead. Do not mortgage you kids future.

I don't agree with you sir or ma. If you have 110millionpoor people that you want to take out of poverty, you don't take them out of poverty by making them pay more. For every liter of petrol that sells higher you take more from them but what they need is not spending more but saving more. You are increasing their cost of living and when a tailor who needs to power hie electric sowing machine to sow for cloth for Uche or Sami, they will pay more. Who do you think get richer when more money leaves your country? Those countries where you import, they will have more jobs for their citizens and expand their own economy.My brother, concerted efforts are required to move the economy forward o

I have read some replies, quite informative, thank you all. I will however want to draw attentions to other critical issues that must be addressed before I can support any subsidy removal.

There are factors that determine prices of imported fuel, one critical factor is the exchange rate. Arriving at what the exchange rate will be against say the dollar itself is a complex web of interdependent variables. Discount rates, imports-exports values and consumer behaviour are all factors that affect the threadline.

Let's get out of the jargons and consider how much Nigeria exports in simple economic terms. The major export is oil and gas but its highly volatile that is, subject to price changes which are influenced by international politics like various events in the Arabs world, instabilities across the world and the oi cartel led by Saudi Arabia with much smaller population and plenty of oil. These intricacies determine how much the price of oil which form over 80% of Nigeria's exports earnings and when the price fall, the value of Nigeria exports will fall.
Just like it, Nigeria imports a whole lots because we don't produce that much and have tastes for imported products including tootpicks and if the country's imports value exceeds is exports in simple economics, there will be negative net trade value or deficit.

I don't want to bore you with impacts of external/foreign reserves but from the above, if Nigeria will be able to meet its domestic demands of goods so that there wont be shortages to avoid prices of goods going up(politicians don't get good ratings and they lose their popularity when this happens) Nigeria will have to raise the number of Naira that will be needed to buy the dollar in order to offset its deficit. I said a lot of things are involved but just to take a few of what lay people like me must know.

My argument is this, if oil is fully deregulated( meaning that we accept that we cannot in a medium term fix existing refineries or build new ones to produce locally) and oil price falls further say to $40, it means our exports value will decrease not because we export less but because the unit value of what we export has reduced. This means that what the Jonathan government (and of course states) has borrowed from international organizations will appreciate against the naira as we will need to devalue the naira more to be able to balance our trade while alot of our budget will be spent on repayment of those loans.If the price of oil wshould appreciate or go up it also means that while government will make more money and have lots of it to spend, the cost of imported petrol will rise meaning that you and I will pay more from incomes that are not appreciating at the same rate(its not good for the poor masses and salary earners)

I don't know if I have tried to simply it. Can I talk of the foreign reserve, hmmm nope don't let us go there although its a critical part but the fact is NIGERIA DON'T HAVE IT IN GOOD SUM NOW

CAN WE DEFEND KEEING SUSIDY?

My answer is yes in the short and medium term till we are able to tackle local refining LETS SAY IN ANOTHER TWO YEARS, ITS NOT A BAD IDEA IF WELL MANAGED. But when? its the will of the coming government to exercise justice on poor Nigerians. You cannot build wealth when you spend more on services that do not add value. What do I mean? The poor will be affected more and be made poorer and all Nigerians will have to spend more on fueling their vehicles, transportation cost and prices of goods and services will go up. Labour unions will want salary increments and we are back to square one because government recurrent expenditure will go higher.

But you can say loopholes are too much in cost of governance? Yes, if such loopholes are covered and the amount budgeted by parliamentarians and government ministries and parastatals are reduced government will have more money freed for capital projects.
So subsidy is about corruption (THIS CORRUPTION INCLUDE CREATING CARTELS AND PRICE FIXING AMONG IMPORERS- NIGERIAN DON'T RESPOND TO MARKET FORCES THAT MUCH)and if government can handle that as well as reduce its discount rates(forget bond performance),raise more products to shore up its exports values, we can have a firmer naira( I suggest the incoming president should consider a dollar at around 140 naira or less), we can have prices of petrol at much less than it is now may be at around =N60 a litre and that will be a good news to Nigerians

There are a lot of things to be done but you know what, some people have fed fat on Nigerians. I think governent should look at the direction of making lives better not worse and for Saraki and co clamouring for susidy removal, the question to them is, if oil price should go up to $90 a barrel how much will a liter of petrol cost but i trust the transparency of Buhari, it wont ever be this worse. I advice Mr President to investigate this scam and do what will favor poor Nigerians, how many wealthy Nigerians gave him the 1.9million votes in Kano

Lastly, come to think of it, one of the reasons the cost of services is so high is the cost of diesel. Our factories, financial institutions and even government offices power diesel generator. what can be done in the short and medium term, bring down the price of diesel. With such poor electricity in Nigeria, any loving government will make diesel sell cheap say =N=50 a liter so that cost of production in Nigeria, which at the moment is about 60% spent on energy will drop ,by at least a third.

Sweetguy25:
Ngozi may go down in history as the most famous Minister of finance Nigeria has ever had. I doubt if previous ministers of finance were scrutinized and castigated as much she was.

But let me ask please – What crimes did Ngozi commit that she is so much vilified and abused by Nigerians? Why do Nigerians blame all their economic problems on Ngozi? Is it because she was conferred with the ceremonial title of “coordinating minister of the economy”?

I have found out that many people who accuse Ngozi of destroying the Nigerian economy are blatantly ignorant of how the Nigerian economy is setup and the duties of the minister of finance.

For starters, there are two ways of controlling an economy – Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy.
Fiscal policy is the use of government revenues and expenditure to stimulate economic growth while monetary policy is basically the use of money supply (e.g. interest rates) to stimulate economic productivity.
Fiscal policy in Nigeria is maintained and managed by the Ministry of Finance while monetary policy is managed by the central bank of Nigeria.
I find it highly hypocritical that nobody ever accuses the CBN of not doing enough to stimulate economic growth and employment. Incidentally, majority of Nigerians are ignorant of the duties and functions of the CBN.
It is the duty of the Central bank to control and manage
- interest rates;
- inflation;
- foreign exchange reserves;
- the national credit system;
- exchange rates
In Nigeria however, we often accuse Ngozi of depleting our foreign reserves, we accuse her of the high exchange rates; we accuse her of unemployment; we accuse her of inflation; we accuse her of everything wrong with the economy. These aren't her duties.

Ngozi does not control exchange rates, the CBN does
Ngozi does not manage or control our foreign reserves, the CBN does
Ngozi does not control inflation, the CBN does
Ngozi’s job is to manage the revenues and expenditures of the federal government; how your state governors spend their allocation and revenues is not her concern.
She has carried out her duties to the best of her ability and I can’t think of any previous minister of finance that did a better job than Okonjo Iweala.

Nigerians should learn to apportion blames to whom they are due

Blame the CBN for inflation
Blame the CBN for high rates interest
Blame the CBN for not managing the foreign reserves properly
Don’t blame Okonjo Iweala


Thank you.

You just scratched the surface as if you don't know what it meant to be the coordinating minister of the economy.It simply means the president surrendered his authority over the economy to her believing in her skills.
The question I will ask you is, if your Director of Finance should manage the fiscal policy of your company this way, would you praise her? Based on your submission, she's to administer incomes and expenditures. So won't you rate her performance on leakages or wastefulness and also on improving the financial muscle of government.
You failed to talk about policy managements, who does that?
Two she was a strong advocate of fuel deregulation at the time oil price was at its peak, what safety did she ensured for government purse by saving more through ensuring refineries are repaired and save trillions spent on subsidy.
What about her staunch defense of the NNPC when it was alleged money was missing? @Op , you need to read your economics more and understand how variables in the economy inter relate then you will know that Madam Ngozi didn't pass at all scoring below 40%.

[b][quote author=Hakagure post=33995885]Our twin bogeymen of Tribalism and corruption rear heads again, Hydras that multiply and become more and more. Some proposals more "chop I chop" rather than clear direction, confusion from nation states that never existed previously trying to create themselves in a new image.

How can tribes that operated on the clan level want to break up to the Tribal level? The only united entity immediately before British Colonialism was the Caliphate which had very little of the middle belt and basically co opted the Hausa City states which before them had Kano as the most important, What we know now as the South East was a loose confederacy at best, the Delta was even more piecemeal, Yoruba land was in the depths of a desperate civil war over autonomy, slavery and trade, Lagos was sacked by the British backed by the Egbas.

Yet now we speak of breaking Nigeria up. Aude Sapere, break it up till when? Who will lead the Igbo? Will an Ekiti man follow an Egba man? WIll an Ibadan man live in peace with an Ijebu man? Who will preside over an Ijaw council? A nomadic tribe that never had a major city? Will Kanem Borno who till this day do not have an Emir in Maiduguri follow the Sultanate? and spit on their freedom and history, Or will Kano decide they want a "fresh start" outside the influence of the current Sultan. Where does Nassarawa, Taraba, Gombe go? Nupe and Borgu form a bendel kingdom and will Bini rule over Ishan again?

Best thing for us is a federal system, non centralized with a figurehead president. Let every LGA (not state) every LGA should administer itself, and let the states provide some Guidance, states should not be split by Tribe (just encourages the the worse of the bogeymen, at least corruption never led to genocide)

Think for yourself and do not fall for what the narrative says.[/b]



I don't believe in your rhetorics. I think you culled that from somewhere and that line of thought is the worst of what Nigeria can descend to.Its so myopic that you are referring to over 140million people as yet developed to be able to build nations within the framework of their intelligentia, Please desit from such barbaric act.
The Yoruba was at a phase of their history when Europeans came and almost every great nation has passed through civil war or conflict before and it was a war of superiority. The Kanem Borno do not relate with the Caliphate because its islamic history predate that of the Caliphate, its about superiority. Kanem Borno, Benin and Yoruba empires existed for over 500years each and so you cannot accuse such people as lacking in historical substance in nation building.

I think ,until the 21st century, the Igbo are people that evolved relatively as one due to European ethnic classification and the deep divisions within their rank is probably linked to the fact that there was not a unifying kingdom/empire that united the people in the last 500 years.But, if the people say they want to be a nation, who can stop a 30million strong people when they are resolute, Nothing.

I am an advocate of a regional government, may be this agitation will help Nigeria evolve into such an egalitarian society.However, I will point out that the path of peace is the best and its a long one that will take a resolutely determined Igbo people to achieve it which will include forming political parties that will be nationalistic and stop seeking for relevance within the Nigeria political sphere. It will also mean that referendum may be the option which mean that the possibility of achieving united front and borders with 'fringe' Igbo states in Delta and Rivers is slim as those people can focus on their own separate dreams.

The last point here is that the Igbo may be interested in knowing how much market they can lose in case it happens eventually. With the way their positions are being touted retaining many of their young traders in other countries will be so slim and so they must make the return of over 15million souls back home within a short period and say bye bye to a market of over 120million buyers.
Imagine U.S saying yes to this request and supporting it at the UN, its a way also for the Yoruba, the Ijaw, and various Niger Delta groups to evolve in their small countries or merge, may be Biafra may become an all Igbo exclusive nation.

I wish you the best

There's a difference when you borrow to pay recurrent expenditure like payment of salary to when you borrow to execute projects that have economic value.That's the difference according to BRF between Lagos and FG.Besides, when you have a consistent income that exceed your expenditure for 4years you don't resort to borrowing because the world will ask you what you did with the surplus income.

iPopAlomo:
you're Definately more sensible than barcanista/dearpreye...

We do not really need rocket science to move the economy forward just the will on the part of the government and receptiveness of change on the part of the people

3. The Pension Fund Administration : I personally feel PFAs are seriously underutilized in growing the economy. Government regulatiors need to beam their lights here as funds trickling into this sector is enormous. Funds in this sector can stand as collateral for contributors in setting up business enterprise while the time of accessing this fund is unreasonably too long. I think contributors should be able to draw funds after 5-10 years of contributing especially for the purpose of mortgage and business.

4. Mortgage Financing: If construction companies are busy by heavy patronage new jobs will spring up. A PPP 10-25years financing for employed/engaged program will go a long way in improving the economy. Many companies will spring up and the model of operation should be done in a way that will engage all gainfully employed folks

5. Transportation : The railway sector should be put to work without fail. Many haulage activities can be handled by trains and this will ease pressures on the roads. Local, regional and national lines should be licensed to do this with multiple tracks and service providers.

6. Media : Getting license to open a radio station in Nigeria is very difficult and this is one sector that can create loads of employment and serves as catalyst to growth. License regimes should be totally liberalized across all its segments.

...to be continued

I read though not with much surprises figures reeled out by the Vice President elect Professor Yemi Osinbajo in which he said that 110 million Nigerians are poor, FGN loan now amounts to $60 billion and the federal government spend over half of its budget on non productive sectors such as oil subsidy, settlement of the political class, fighting insurgency and so on. For a government whose recurrent expenditure exceed 70% of its annual budget , the future is bleak for a country of over 140million and teeming unemployed youths.
One touching statement made by the VP elect was on the concentration of wealth in few hands which forms the basis of my contribution. The question is, how do we spread the wealth to create more middle class economy and get to see more money in the hands of the people. Here are my few suggestions for criticism:
1. I know a lot will advise the incoming government to tackle corruption, yes, these are leakages that brings waste,especially those capital flight abroad for funds stached away. Graft is a great disease and it has killed off this country. However, I will start with the financial sector.
What can be done to create more opportunities and bring uo more middle class citizens?
i) More regulations to enhance the performance of current banks, insurance and other players in the sector to make them competitive globally and build capacity to support the macroeconomic growth while mitigating associated risks.
ii) Government new policies on Community banking and micro insurance : This to me, is key in this sector to reaching the unreached, allowing the growth of the micro economic sector of the economy and jobs creation. What about the current micro finance banks? their facilities charges cannot at best support micoeconomic activities that need long term gestation period especially that government is looking at growing the economy through exploring opportunities in agriculture and mining. Couple with the interest rates prevalent, I think licensing special banks which i will call Agriculture Community Cooperative Banks, Entrepreneurial Community Cooperative Banks that can charge as low as 5% inerest or be interest free will be a great stride. These institutions can reach out to citizens with ideas but that have no means of fulfilling their dreams and we can talk of close to 10million jobs in 4years through this scheme.
iii) The introduction of Microinsurance Licensed Comapanies : These will be small insurance companies that can provide cover for assets of which sum insured value is not above =N10 million and thier operating capital can be =N50 million or less. Government must also expand the scope of the statutory insurance to cover all buildings used wholly or partly for commercial activities taking up at least a third party fire insurance may be at least =N5,000 a year. This will help to sustain the economy, help in capital conservation and make funds available to grow the eceonomy.It will also engender job creations, may be this will generate over 50,000 jobs in two years if well gine tuned. This will also not impair the current climate as bigger players will have to sit up in the industry.
2. Decentralization of electricity supply : The quickest way to get at least 6 hours in other states but at least 18hours in major economiccentres is by decentrailization of power. There are many things involved in the electricity sector that many in the public do not know:
a) Power generation by Gencos
b) Evacuation of power generated tby TCN : here there are two things involved: (i) What is TCN capacity to evacuate from GENCOS? which means that even if Gencos generate 20,000MW of electricity within 6months and the TCN capacity is just 5,000MW, consumers will still not have power supply (ii) The area of technical and non technical losses through obsolete technology that needs modernity.
c) The capacity of Discos to distribute what the TCN can ge across to them

other factors include the usual gas pipeline vandalism and political will on the part of the government because of their friends that import generators etc

So how will decentralization work : it will eliminate power pooling and bypass many technical requirements that will cost trillions of naira under the national integrated power pooling. Example is what the BRF government is doing in Lagos. So we can have for instance an IPP Genco supplying Sango otta indutrial areas and nothing more while another can just focus on providing electricty for the SME factories in Aba which Market operators will monitor for compliance and it will evacuated to consumers. This means that we can have thousands of IPPs which will create jobs all over Nigeria. In addition to this, government should license power cards manufacturers in the country and card recharge (hawking) can become ubiqutous like the GSM

.......To be continued

skyfall:
Oh yea, flyovers, alternative roads and (cargo & human) rail service are imperative. Otherwise, that axis will grind to a halt.

Yes flyovers and the rest but Lagos is going to expand through another corridor; Epe into Ijebu back linking Ikorodu and forming a long strip of economic areas into Ogun waterside and Olokola deep seaport in Ondo state. Don't bother too much, many immigrants will settle in fringes of Ogun State

saintopus:
Google will be your best friend to find Yale University. At the bottom of the site you will see contact us, then start your writing to the management.

Please do not forget to use Lai Mohmed and popular phrase
1. Monumental cluelessness
2. Epic corruption
3.Colossal daftness
4. Colossal corruption.
5. "I don forget the other grammer them abeg make I consult Prof. Soyinka "

Read this to cure your ignorance. I want you to hold an objective view of your country.its the view of Boyo, try and read.

In terms of performance, can the Finance Minister, Okonjo Iweala justify her statement that the outgoing administration is leaving behind a solid economic legacy?

The truth of the matter is that Nigerians are gullible and to a very large extent unfortunately ignorant about the operations of an economy. Because even the expectation of extraordinary or excellent performance from Okonjo Iweala ab initio was totally misplaced. Misplaced in the sense that the failure of her first term in office was promoted as success. Consequently, you find that because that failure of her first term in office was not recognised, expectations became so high. Unfortunately, you cannot build on falsehood. You cannot give what you don’t have.

I recall two articles which I wrote at the end of Iweala’s first tenure in office, when I said that it is impossible to judge her performance based on debt forgiveness. In the first place, no country pays every debt it owes when its people are suffering. In addition, there was evidence that we had paid the initial debt owed several times over and yet we were told to pay 12 billion dollars to be able to get a reprieve of God knows what, at a time when poverty in the country was deepening. A Finance Minister in any country is generally judged on the basis of certain indices. For example, what was the level of inflation when the Finance Minister came in, and what is the level of inflation when she is leaving? What was the level of consumption spending when the Finance Minister came in, and what is the level of consumption spending when she left? What is the level of capital accumulation in terms of fiscal discipline, directing more resources towards capital formation and infrastructure?

Did consumption expenditure (recurrent expenditure) continue to exceed capital expenditure such that recurrent expenditure constantly edged around 70 percent while capital expenditure was 30 percent? You cannot cover failure forever. Those were indices of failure. What about the exchange rate at the time the Minister came and the exchange rate when she left and what level of employment did the Minister meet? We should also consider her policies about generating more employment. In all these critical indices, Okonjo Iweala failed. So, with such failure, it was totally baffling for anyone to consider her return based on good performance in the first instance.

Henry Boyo
Henry Boyo
Because Nigerians were gullible and did not really understand what was happening, they were bamboozled by the razzmatazz of this lady president from the world Bank. We were totally fooled. It is totally inapplicable to expect the same person to come back and suddenly change over a new leaf.

There is the issue about those indices I mentioned initially with inflation at eight percent running to 10 per cent and cost of funds to the real sector at over 20 per cent. The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy was asked a question by a ThisDay Newspaper reporter at an interview less than two years ago that “madam, why is it that the cost of funds is well over 20 per cent? And the Minister of Finance, this so-called exalted personality in the area of economics management said, “ In fact that has been bothering me, I don’t really know, it is something that I must discuss with the banks.” If she did not know after she had been there for a long time, is it the question by the reporter that has now prompted her interest, When she knows that no economy can thrive or succeed when cost of funds to the real sector is over 20 per cent?

No economy can also succeed, especially with a population like ours, when the ratio between recurrent and capital expenditure has even risen from 70:30 the last time she was there to a recurrent of over 90 percent now. Is that not alarming? After she dashed out our money for debt relief, she came back and reaccumulated the debts under the guise of good economic management. In what way can you congratulate her for the four or five years she has now spent in office? If anything, she has damaged the economy. She came up with all kinds of things. There’s YouWin for instance. Have you ever seen anybody’s character being built on just being given money without discipline or any sustainable control attached to it?

Yes, young people are doing business. But why should you throw as much as N8million or even N10million to them and you say “go and continue doing the business and employ people,” without the proviso that this money being given belongs to the people and that they have a responsibility to repay it. Any business done using people’s money, and the persons doing the business are not made to know that there is a schedule for repayment is money thrown down the drain. How she can exalt herself and her performance by referring to that as an index of superior economic management is baffling.

You find also that the same debt that she said she cleared, is what we are again almost back into. In addition to that, debt is being aquired at rates which even a standard six person as Minister of Finance should not accept. Why would you borrow to fund government activities at 12 to 15 per cent? How could you be Minister of Finance at a time that your President is going to China as President Jonathan did about 18 months ago or so to borrow $1.5billion from the Chinese for transport and other infrastructural development, and simultaneously on the same trip to China, your Central Bank Governor on the trip was asked, “what are you doing in China,” and he said he was looking for ways to invest the CBN’s foreign reserves. How could you have a Finance Minister and the Coordinating Minister of the Economy who cannot put the two together? How could you have a Finance Minister who, during the fuel subsidy upheaval of early 2012, did not know the level of rot in the subsidy business? She is not just the Finance Minister, but also the coordinating Minister of the Economy!

When Sanusi Lamido Sanusi came up and said people were submitting papers which were being stamped, approved and money paid, who paid it? Why didn’t the Finance Minister and the Coordinating Minister show any interest in that. Why must it deserve attention only when it became a crisis issue. Would you be satisfied and congratulate a Finance Minister when you suddenly find that apart from the huge disparity between capital expenditure and recurrent expenditure, the Minister has been sitting on a process that allows the payment of well over a trillion Naira on fuel subsidy, using over 20-25 per cent of our annual budget on fuel subsidy. And you call that a superior Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister of the Economy?

These are realities. These things are not made up. How did we get to that point. How did we get from paying N200billion for subsidy to over N1 trillion in her own tenure? This information is in the public domain. And why should we be discussing Okonjo Iweala in terms of performance if not because people believe the lies of the first term. These are the realities.

porka:
[size=16pt]Direct your grievance at Yale University management.

Tell them they are either fools or they made a mistake.

They will give you an audience; they might withdraw the award or confirm it and educate you on their reasons.

Best of luck.[/size]

Sir/ma, do you think if she were an American with unanswered cases of graft hanging around her(or may be her office) she would be considered for an award at this time? Although I do not understand how your mind work but I know that America is a sane society that do not celebrate questionable(or seemingly) characters. Remember how she has been patching the economy telling us how healthy it was and see what is going on today; more debts and job losses out there. Please go and learn the fundamentals of economics and stop acting ignorant here. How can you build institutions to free some funds from some corrupts civil servants while you also permit the door of stealing in another direction? Tell me in your own calculation how you think billions of oil incomes over the last 5 years has been spent and how the Federal Budget has improved looking at its recurrent expenditure. I believe Soludo's lines that reckoned NOI as an administrator and less economist.
Yale is prestigious but this blunder will still hunt its image just watch out when critics begin to question the rationale behind its decision.

I honestly do not know if those that offered the award to her have in depth understanding of what it means to fight corruption in the developing world. The madam minister can talk about billions of Naira saved through some procedural changes in ways government do its business but those gains were easily eaten up by myriads of other mismanagement (allegedly) seen in the public sphere. The oil subsidy scams running into trillions of Naira under her watchful eyes as de-facto Prime Minister (named Coordinating Minister of the Economy), missing billions of dollars from the treasury of government due to non remittance of incomes by the Government owned corporation under her watch and that of her colleague oil Minister Madam and various grafts exposed in the outgoing regime.
If she had performed this way in the United States would Yale celebrate her this way? By this it is easy for us to accept that the first world countries encourage graft and mediocrity in Africa and are not in a hurry to see the continent develop. This is a country where 7 out of every 10 able and agile workforce do not have profitable employment and over 40% depend on relatives, a country where parents still provide feeding for 30 years old graduate degree holders and public domestic debts almost tripled in five years in spite of oil income that ran into several billion dollars without any infrastructural progress to show for it. If what Okonjo did is what American Universities teach(I know that's not true anyway) then Nigeria had better look for graduates from local institutions to fix its problems. I think Yale, a prestigious University, ran into a colossal error over this action. I simply delete this school from my likes without wait.

I honestly do not know if those that offered the award to her have in depth understanding of what it means to fight corruption in the developing world. The madam minister can talk about billions of Naira saved through some procedural changes in ways government do its business but those gains were easily eaten up by myriads of other mismanagement (allegedly) seen in the public sphere. The oil subsidy scams running into trillions of Naira under her watchful eyes as de-facto Prime Minister (named Coordinating Minister of the Economy), missing billions of dollars from the treasury of government due to non remittance of incomes by the Government owned corporation under her watch and that of her colleague oil Minister Madam and various grafts exposed in the outgoing regime.
If she had performed this way in the United States would Yale celebrate her this way? By this it is easy for us to accept that the first world countries encourage graft and mediocrity in Africa and are not in a hurry to see the continent develop. This is a country where 7 out of every 10 able and agile workforce do not have profitable employment and over 40% depend on relatives, a country where parents still provide feeding for 30 years old graduate degree holders and public domestic debts almost tripled in five years in spite of oil income that ran into several billion dollars without any infrastructural progress to show for it. If what Okonjo did is what American Universities teach(I know that's not true anyway) then Nigeria had better look for graduates from local institutions to fix its problems. I think Yale, a prestigious University, ran into a colossal error over this action. I simply delete this school from my likes without wait.

I do not share some sentiments being displayed here over what is going on in Ogun State.By cheer closeness to Lagos, Ogun has what Lagos lacks seriously-Land but with what is on ground, successive government in the state has failed to take advantage of that while Gbenga Daniel did worse by not maximizing the use of the OPIC land around the long bridge for housing and economic activities that would have opened up the area for massive economic activities even Amosun is yet to pay sufficient attention to those areas.I think Ogun state should show more seriousness in developing all those 'New Lagos' that would have drawn services industries en masse. Let me take the case of Warewa to Mowe on the Lagos Ibadan Expressway for instance. All settlements/estates were exclusively developed without government inputs in such areas as Warewa,Arepo, Magboro, Ibafo, Aseese etc and the most discouraging part of it is that the key industrial areas of Magboro and Ibafo have had no power supply for close to a year and so many small associated services that would naturally promote economic activities are still domiciled in Lagos from barbing salon to cold rooms.The government of Ogun state is just trying under the current regime but to me the infrastructural development of the state should focus on these 'Lagos Extensions' that is where the future of the state lies and its tax or income levies.

If roads and housing programs are developed around Otta, Mowe Ibafo and Agbara and financial services companies and other associated investments which will actually draw more middle class population will birth and many economic activities that will generate taxes will come up. By then Ogun can begin to dream about becoming a second Lagos but as of now , its a tall dream far far away.

Barrcanista,you raised a very salient issue in Nigeria and I want to state the following
1. I've always advocated for autonomous regional government as a means of eliminating perceived inequalities in Nigera.the earlier the better.
2. I dont believe in the 170million touted population of Nigeria.may be we can be around 130million now
3. The single largest ethnic group in Nigeria is yoruba followed by hausa and igbo.the concept of fulani was a joker used in inflating northern populations.
4. The political and economic arrangementsthat will reduce population and local administrative to zero is regionalism coupled with at least 50% of all resources and levies which will graduate to 80% in 15 years will help Nigeria move forward
That's my take.

I often laugh at ethnic promoters in this wise, I don't buy their ideas. I am a strong advocate of regional government that can turn regions on bases of ethnicity and interest to autonomous Regions serving as administrative units.
it is good that Igbo are demanding for Biafra, they are free to demand and work for it through international pressure but wait, are the Igbo industrialists and businessmen in support of this? They are the biggest gainers in Nigeria as traders and will ,incur the most losses if Nigeria should split. Take for instance in the Southwest region where Igbo that may be cleared to stay maybe by business investments and marriage may not exceed 1.5 to 2millions, where will the rest go? say like 4-6millions going back to their roots with less than 25% of their worth! Well i trust their resilience, but i don't think many will support this cause.
Also, the main hope for the new country of Lower Niger is oil which taken out of the equation will not make the economy that buoyant and activities around the world(if christ's coming tarries) is not really putting the black gold in any better perspective of price appreciation in the next decade. The seeming Iran nuclear deal will provide a battle with Saudi and Saudi can survive with $20 a barrel, its a testament that things aren't looking okay for that industry coupled with massive discovery in many more stable countries and the Americans are looking at cleaning their mess in Nigeria that would improve their image if their companies should finally leave the shores of Nigeria.
One thing that can keep the Igbo going is their trade but exposure to over 130million market will be gone with Biafra and they stand to lose a lot.
The question is, can the Yoruba actually survive without the oil? A reference to a 2004/2005 analysis of Nigeria by Umar Dangiwa Abubakar and the post Obasanjo economic analysis by Falalu both pointed at the Yoruba region as the most likely to survive faster than any other parts of Nigeria and may be less prone to crises too. It must be understood that mineral resources are pillars of many conflicts in Africa and particularly a Niger Delta is so susceptible to such due to its many ethnic groups and ultimately the ambition of the neighboring Igbo whose eyes are set on the oil.Now, its explicit that claims of certain groups around the Delta around Rivers ,Delta and maybe Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa by the Igbo as their kinsmen against the disunited etnic groups can force them into a confrontation but may end up eating the whole new country up in flames and persistence conflicts.

The Yoruba has a starting point in Lagos, Ogun and Oyo with sizable development and fair on African standard. Its got some oil and gas around Ondo and may be Lagos and Ogun that can service its economy in the medium term.Its got millions of workforce and trained professionals than other groups in Nigeria and can boast of top 5 of African population in diaspora.
The capacity of the Yoruba to form live and let's live political alliance is a plus which will likely bring places like Edo, Itsekiri (and most likely Urhobo,Isoko,and maybe Anioma) and the Igala, Ebira and Bariba into the folds in a loose confederacy like that of United States. That means that the Yoruba controlled country will most likely reach Northern Anambra, Northern Enugu, Escravos, Kainji and fringes of Abuja.
Leaving these out means that the Itsekiri , Edo and Ebira may be the best bet.That country have the greatest potential of becoming a big one in Africa if the usual African disease do not set in with or without oil economy. It will be a country of over 60million people, over 1.2mbpd oil(not dependable in long term),good shipping ports and a stream of closed multicultural society.
Why did I go this long?
So that all readers will see that we can live with ourselves without thinking eldorado ends with your land when the sun rise. We can achieve greatness by drumming support for Regional autonomy and it will be well with Nigeria.

Tinubu as much as I know is a strong stakeholder in APC and he's already strategizing toward the next election. He had committed alot to GMB and APC victory and you don't expect him to allow himself schemed out, politics don't work that way, I wouldn't allow that either.
however, good people should be allowed to lead as results is all that matter.
I think Tinubu will have his way on the house of reps and if he settles with Fashola, will probably position him against 2019, remember he has always been around politics in a long time.

I have another angle to this story:
1. Philip Emegwali, I think he's a resourceful Igbo man backed his history of the Onitcha as that of Benin, its so rooted in the palace tales it would have a huge percentage of truth. Onitcha had Benin root.
2. Benin empire at its peak extended to Onitsha today bringing a cosmopolitan dwellers from Bini to Ibo(now Igbo, and what's the meaning of Igbo in Igbo language?)
3.At some points, Benin powers began to wane and some others groups began to rise up. I think there are other keywords that transverse the entire empire, you can check Akoko, ifon, ikale, Ekiti and Etsako dialects and compare.
I think major groups down Delta are connected to Benin by ancestry but like Lagos of today, have many mixed ethnic groups which later divided in the 19th century.
As long as language remain a strong cultural identity but it isn't finite, for example Adolfus Wabara isn't Yoruba but was raised as one. Berbers aren't Arabs though Arabized and speak Arabic. The Ika and Anioma may be right and believe me you can't force igboness on them if they chose not to be.They may have been'Igbonized' but may be they are not Igbo.Think about it, the Igala and Uoruba speak seriously close languages yet Yoruba never claim igala to be Yoruba but they are kinsmen alongside itsekiri, Bini and Egun, Ewe, and Ga.
You can't claim people you can only win them to your side and aside the Benin empire, there was never an Igbo empire or kingdom in the last 500years befoe 18th century, so its a difficult challenge for any universal Igbo claims.what do you think guys?

I presume with all humility that majority of posters here are youths and its quite disappointing to read what lots of you have posted here.
To me, the idea of Biafra is not bad.Not is wrong for a people to agitate and even get their own country, its legal and acceptable anywhere in the world. However, if I don't buy into your vision if for instance I don't belong to igbo, you cannot blame me for not supporting you, its you that must look for ways to get what you want albeit lingering opposition.
Some thing have been quite clear from all discussed so far and what is actually on the ground.
1. What the igbo want seem at variance with their neghbours with whom they intend to have the same country.This can create gaps that can be exploited by your adversaries un case of conflicts.
2. The vested interests that seem to bring the over 120 ethnic groups in Niger Delta together is oil and gas.This itself isn't sufficient to build a nation. There is no common history or agreement that exist between these various groups other than militancy which has been used to get attention and get their own portion of the national cake
3. The igbo has not demostrated a sincere approach to these ethnic groups in the Niger Delta, they are championing it all alone and its more like an Igbo agitation for nationhood
4. I think the igbo has to look at how they can start within their five states and woo their kinsmen elsewhere rather than subjugating their own chosen identity, such will lead to internal squabbles and fall of any fragile nation
5.The igbo cultual groups and leaders don't seem to buy into this as nothing serious is forthcoming from such groups that will give it a stronger appeal

what about Nigeria
Ever since the end of the civil war, the igbo people have taken up trading thereby expanding into every sphere of Nigeria, from Fascari in Katsuna to Obubra, from Damasak to Osin Ekiti, from Donga in Taraba to Mokwa in Niger, the igbo will be the immediate best loosers if Nigeria break, they will loose their investments, clients base and the market segment they control.This is why this citation won't ever fly with the business class.
The sufficient inter ethnic troubles from the Niger Delta groups will be sufficient for the people a trouble to care. I have a strong believe that there won't aver be a Niger Delta country but the Ijaw confederacy may exist while the ikwere will be pressed between two evils; the Igbo tovthe north and ijaw/Kalabari to the south while the combination of people of Akwa Ibom and some parts of cross river can be relatively stable until the invaders come.
The presence of oil will definitely create different ethnic interests, greed and personal interests is often characteristical of the oil business and this may remain the undoing of the self determination groups from this areas in the long run.
There won't be any northern country too because to delimit new countries will be a serious matter and armed conflicts will be frequent.
Even if Nigeria is to be divided based on plebiscite the Igbo country will probably shrink more and Nigeria may have more than 20countries coming out a large part from the Niger Delta.

ki02020:
By igbo friends will claim $150billion of the $200billion is generated by their retail busines....fredom of speech noni


Seriously the lagos state goverment should not pay greater attention on the island this time around o, there should be even development across the state

Your igbo friends are largely involved in the informal sector and they don't contribute as much as they should. They must brace up for more responsible participation

ki02020:
By igbo friends will claim $150billion of the $200billion is generated by their retail busines....fredom of speech noni


Seriously the lagos state goverment should not pay greater attention on the island this time around o, there should be even development across the state

Government still need to pay alot of attention to Island because that's its largest financial district in Nigeria. The Island wholesale market, Lagos Island and Victoria island need more modernization and erosion control strategies.
What I think its important for the new government to do is to widen the scope of its revenue generation through modernization of the informal sector to give room for taxable business engagements. Also, the local government revenue is one of a kind leaking purse which must be tight nosed and local councils must be made responsible by submitting their own roadmaps in sanitation,community roads and street lights