₦airaland Forum

chimex38:
They have to list the entire conglomerate.
Na Nigerians get am.

Na the listing go reduce future corruption. "reduce"

Dey play
You want them to list and share the profits from sale of crude oil which is used to finance the budget, pay salaries, capital projects etc?
Impossicant!

chimex38:
If NNPCL eventually list on Ngx;
Heavy Weight Market Cap champions:
NNPCL
DR
OandO
Seplat
Aradel

Ngx becomes Oil commodity exchange.

The NNPC listing can cause a lot of disruptions because of govt influence and control,
A company with so much controversies, allegations of corruption, fraud, unaccounted subsidies etc. listing on the bourse may end up corrupting the NGX as regulators may find it difficult to strictly apply the rules to them.
They also have to clarify which segment of their business they are listing e.g. upstream or downstream(filling stations, lubricants etc).
The upstream is the cash cow for govt. budget finance, so it is not likely to be listed.

GeneralDae:
NNPCL stepping up now even more

NNPCL ke?
It is rather the upstream oil companies like Shell, ENI, Mobil, Seplat, Aradel, Oando, Conoil etc that are producing the oil.

Dogalmighty17:
Over the next few weeks or possibly even days, the price of crude in the international market is going to increase geometrically. This will have terrible ripple effects worldwide. All because of the alarming idiocy of Donald Trump.

While the US was focused on containing Iranian activity in the strait of Hormuz, the Iranians had their eyes on a more critical strait in the red sea. The strait of Bab El-Mandeb. This strait is very critical to all Saudi Arabian oil exports. And Iranian allies, the Houthis in Yemen, are possibly days away from capturing it.

If Bab El-Mandeb falls into the hands of the Houthis, Saudi Arabia can kiss crude oil exports goodbye. But that isn't enough. The Houthis have developed their own precision guided missiles that they can target vital assets in Saudi Arabia. Critical crude oil extraction facilities in Saudi Arabia have been shut down as a result.

In 2002, Saudi Arabia, the US and the UK engaged in a brutal bombing campaign against the Houthis and achieved nothing positive. Saudi Arabia even deployed foreign mercenaries, paying them 5000 dollars monthly to fight and yet the Houthis wiped out a good number of them. Saudi Arabia, the US and the UK, shamefully withdrew.

There are over 300,000 Houthi fighters. Men who welcome and actively search for death. Nothing will dissuade them from taking the strait of Bab El-Mandeb except the US puts boots on the ground. The Houthis already took a very critical port on the red sea today after brutal fighting against Yemeni government troops and Saudi backed mercenaries. Oil prices are inching up as a result.

Saudi Arabia cannot just watch its economic lifeline being cut off. It will be forced to act but air power alone won't be enough. Troops have to be on ground. Iran and its allies will take up their targeting of Saudi crude production assets a notch. This will do wonders for the international price of crude and of course the retail prices of petrol and diesel here in Nigeria.

Fuel prices here will increase more than they currently are here in Nigeria . President Tinubu will not be responsible for it. There is nothing he can do. So let's all brace up. The coming days and weeks will be very rough

It is spelt "Strait" not "StraiGHt"
Remove the GH

megawealth01:
This will shock you… some of you might even rethink Dangote Refinery IPO after this post.

Please fact check me… no emotions… only facts!

Dangote Cement was listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange at ₦135 per share on 26 October 2010.

Dangote Cement is now trading at ₦1,034 today.

If you bought 1000 shares in 2010, you spent only ₦135,000 and your shares would be worth ₦1,034,000 today.

That’s a massive 666% PROFIT.

Jesusssss. Massive.

Oya wait…

In 2010, that 1,000 shares at ₦135,000 represented approximately $890.

Yes, that 135,000 Naira was actually $890.

After 16 years, your $890 investment yielded ₦1,034,000 which is $780.93 today.

While you are celebrating 666% profit in Naira, unknown to you, you have actually LOST THE ENTIRE VALUE of the capital you invested.

If you invested the same money in Apple on the same day Dangote Cement was listed, your N135,000 ($890) would be worth $25,917 today - minus dividends oh.

If you invested that money in Bitcoin on the same day Dangote Cement listed, your ₦135,000 would be worth $457 million today.

I want you to think deeply about this…

Out of excitement, Emeka invested ₦135,000 in Dangote cement on 26th October 2010. Today, 16 years later, that invested is worth less than $780.

But if Charles had invested the same amount in Bitcoin on the same day, he would be worth $457 MILLION DOLLARS today - That’s about ₦605.1 BILLION in Naira.

I’ve fed all the data about the overhyped Dangote Refinery IPO into my personal automated AI trading bot and I asked it to help me decide whether to invest in Dangote IPO, Bitcoin Spot or GOLD - omo, smart investors no Dey follow HYPE OH but data and real technology.

Remember, no emotions… only facts! Fact check me and let’s have an intelligent conversation. Can we bet some money on this - I want someone to put $1000 in Dangote Refinery and I’ll put the same amount in Gold or Bitcoin Spot and give it 3 years and see what happens. Anyone willing to take the challenge?

Lesson: To be a skilled and successful investor, you must remove emotions.

I tried my best to get into the Dangote Refinery Private Placement. I assembled friends and raised about some funds. But our efforts were blocked because it was not just a money thing , it was an inner caucus thing. Only 3% of 120 Billion shares will be listed to the public. Dangote controls almost 85%. And his friends control the rest and tens of millions of you will start fighting for 3%. I mark myself SAFE from the Dangote Refinery FOMO.

Let’s keep building. One day is One day.

Congratulations in advance to everyone participating. Do not be discouraged by this analysis. Go for it. I’m writing for a different audience - the diaspora audience who have access to more options. If you live in Nigeria with very limited investment options, this is a good opportunity for you.

© Charles Awuzie

What you said above may be every very true. Real facts.
But if we are to folliow the analogy, then no one would invest in the NGX. What you said applies to all stocks listed in the NGX. The foreign stocks like Apple, and gold, bitcoin also outperform most of the stocks in NGX.
You also have to remember that not everyone has the opportunity or skill to invest in foreign stocks.
The main problem is the reckless devaluation of our currency, rather than any particular stock listed on the NGX. If the US govt had also devalued the dollar recklessly, the result of your analysis would be different!
People become poorer when their currency is devalued, but some others believe in the "money illussion" i.e thinking rhat a bigger quantumn of money indicates bigger wealth without considering things like the excchange rate, purchasing power, inflation etc.

That is who and what they are: they want yo see the West, especially America and Israel destroyed! They cannot fo it because hey do not have the means to. If they could, they would destroy Israel and the West in 2 seconds!
They seek pity but are extremely wicked!

veecovee:
Thanks great man

124billion !!

Price appreciation go hard here oo😧

Alhaji, his friends, NNPC and other institutional investors could take 120billion units of the shares or more.
The free float in the hands of retail traders may not be up to 4billion shares, so the price can still appreciate if their financial performance is solid and govt does not frustrate them with their shenanigans (I mean govt generally, not referring to present govt only)

Agbalowomeri:
Just dey play
In 2008, na regulators and stockbrokers dey hustle to get out of the market while the market was on a free fall. Regulators are not here to protect you from losing money. Losing money is part of the market

Agbalowomeri! Agbalowomeri!! Agbalowomeri!!!
How many times did I call you?
You like wahala ooo

essentialone1:
https://businessday.ng/news/article/naicom-rejects-n100bn-recapitalisation-fraud-claim/

Better, thanks for sharing

yMcy56:
OPAY: FAKE SHUTDOWN SUSPECT ARRESTED

* Very good.
For those thinking they can continue to stay behind the keyboard to type nonsense or tarnish a company's image should continue...
This is an evidence that they'll be tracked down and arrested...

** It's remaining the one that issued fake letter on ACCESS ceasing to operate again.

https://nairametrics.com/2026/09/10/police-arrest-suspect-behind-fake-opay-shutdown-report/

https://punchng.com/police-arrest-woman-over-fake-opay-shutdown-notice/?amp

Na woman oooo. Make them leave am abeg.
''She'' who is without ''similar ''sin''should come out and let's see!

Only God knows how many women have lied and made false allegations against different people in the past ....their brothers, accusing boyfriends of double-dating, colleagues at work, accusing husband of having side chicks, rival ladies, friends in school, in the office etc,

Haha!
Look at Oando shaking body today? Wetin do am?

megawealth01:
I just hope it enters sub one naira

JAPAUL at 0.50 won't be bad sha....

Should we expect Oando at 8 naira?

Anything is possible ooo!
Oando may even go back to N5 if care is not taken. (some people would still not buy, expecting it fall to N3)
Wale better talk ''better thing'' at the AGM next week Thursday.

Dangote refinery putting everybody ''under pressure'' .... RIP Ras Kimono

SonofElElyonRet:
No be overkill be dat

All die be die!
All kill na kill!

essentialone1:
*NAICOM Under EFCC Investigation - ₦100bn Fraud Allegation*

*What happened:*

- *EFCC detained and granted bail* to 2 top NAICOM officials:
- *Oluwatoyin Charles* - Director of Compliance
- *Olusegun Ayo Omosehin* - NAICOM Insurance Commissioner
- *Allegations*: Fraudulent insurance recapitalisation totaling *over ₦100 billion*
- Illegal collection of *1% of shareholders’ funds* — not paid to FG’s TSA account
- *₦200m and ₦300m* allegedly allocated as allowances to the 2 directors from recapitalisation proceeds
- *Ministry of Finance letter dated 6th August 2026* flagged it
- *NICON Insurance and Universal Insurance* sued NAICOM and got a restraining order
- *Commissioner Omosehin admitted* the NIIRA Act didn’t authorize the 1% charge after Finance Ministry ordered it

So the regulator meant to oversee insurance is now under probe for the recapitalisation process itself.

So the Finance Ministry authorized NAICOM (regulatory) officers to commit an act against the law? I don't get it.
If so, why is the Minster not being questioned as well?

ghm:
Thanks for the remark.

You actually brought another dimension of concern. I had that before, and my response is below. I initially thought I would go in heavily, but decided to do due diligence instead. Please note that despite my response, I am still learning, and I like the discourse.

On the "$47 billion for just a refinery" point:
You're right that standalone refiners rarely command such valuations. Turkey's Tupras – with comparable combined capacity across four refineries – is valued at about $12 billion . US-listed HF Sinclair, with roughly 678,000 bpd capacity, sits around $16 billion .

So why is Dangote different? Because it's not being priced as a standalone refiner.

1. Capacity is doubling, not static
The refinery currently operates at 700,000 bpd – surpassing its 650,000 bpd nameplate capacity after a 72-hour performance test with UOP in February 2026 . A second 700,000 bpd train is already under construction, targeting mechanical completion by end-2028 and bringing total capacity to 1.4 million bpd. DR is also more efficient than other refineries in that it converts approximately 92% of every barrel into clean transport fuels, with cash operating costs below $3 per barrel – among the lowest-cost refiners globally At that scale, it would surpass India's Jamnagar as the world's largest single-site refinery.

The IPO proceeds are earmarked for this expansion, which is estimated at $12.4 billion – about 38% below what Phase 1 cost, because it replicates existing configuration on the same site .

2. The financials already support the valuation
In H1 2026 alone, the refinery posted:

Revenue: N19.47 trillion ($13.91 billion)
Profit after tax: N2.55 trillion ($1.82 billion)
EBITDA: $2.60 billion – nearly five times its full-year 2025 figure

Gross refining margin rose to $24.50 per barrel, up from $13.70 in 2025 and $10.70 in 2024 . Average utilisation hit 83.6% .

3. Analysts have independently validated the valuation.
Two equity research reports published on September 7, 2026:

Chapel Hill Denham valued the refinery at approximately $62.5 billion
Renaissance Capital valued it at $53.89–$62.09 billion

Both modelled the Phase 2 expansion. Chapel Hill Denham described it as "relatively de-risked" because the second train replicates existing infrastructure with engineering and licensing already in place .

4. On the "100% return requires $100bn valuation" concern
You're right that doubling the share price from N525 would require a valuation approaching $100 billion. But capital appreciation is not the only return path. The refinery's cash generation supports dividends, and the expansion case provides a pathway to higher earnings.

At N525, the implied P/E ratio is roughly 30 based on estimated earnings of N14 per share . That compares favourably with Aradel (above 20) and Seplat (above 15) on the NGX .

5. What's the risk?
Renaissance Capital flagged that each year of delay in Phase 2 could "materially reduce the refinery's value" . The base case assumes commissioning by 2030, versus management's 2028 target .

Other risks: refining-cycle volatility, crude supply constraints, FX movements, and operational disruptions .

Bottom line:
The valuation isn't crazy for a standalone refinery – because it's not being priced as one. It's being priced as a platform that will double capacity, integrate petrochemicals, and reshape Atlantic basin product flows .

Whether that justifies $49 billion today depends on execution. The analysts covering it seem to think the expansion is achievable. But they're pricing in execution, not certainty.

I hope this adds to the discourse.

''Bad boy'' at the bolded
You must be related to Agba somehow

francesfrances:
Your defense of this company is impressive, if you don't mind, would you also address why this refinery is so over valued at 47 billion USD. After all, this is just a refinery, not a 21st century revolutionary concept. This question is would you advise your client to invest in a refinery that its future growth (price appreciation is already priced into the IPO. If you buy at N525. To make a return of 100%, this refinery valuation has to appreciate to around 100 billion USD. Meanwhile, it's rare to find any refinery with even a valuation of 60 billion USD

How do you mean ''this refinery is so over valued at USD47b''?
Do you have an alternative valuation? If yes, based on what metrics? Do you have any refinery in the world with 700,000 barrels capacity?
Valuation is usually based on future cash flows of a project/company.
Even though he might have used $20billion to construct the refinery, the valuation would shift from the cost of constriction to future cash flows accruable to the project/company.

Remember also that the capacity is to be increased from 700,000 barrels to 1.4m barrels per day.

Stockpromoter:
You forgot the coming of a new president can cause the stock to sneeze.
Do you think the opposition parties are in support of monopoly.
We are here watching closely.
My own is to buy at N300 and that will not be a good news to other stocks

No new president would attack or do anything against Dangote's companies. Unless such president does not know what he's doing.

I don't understand how you mean with ''monopoly'' in this context. Has Dangote said anybody should not go borrow $20bn and risk everything on building a refinery? What has happened to the ''monopoly'' of NNPC?

Let those shouting ''monopoly'' try and break the ''monopoly'' by also investing to build factories and employ thousands of youths like Dangote is doing.

londonerr:
My concern exactly. The Dangote ecosystem will be too domineering for the NGX

That is the strength of the man's investments in Nigeria which are also creating opportunities and wealth for his employees, distributors, investors etc.
Other wealthy Nigerians should also invest and list their companies on NGX
Or would you prefer he does not list his companies so that your worry about being "" too domineering for NGX" would be over and gone?

Stockpromoter:
What do you expect when everyone is invited to buy Dangote IPO with less than 10k?
People are buying with expectations.
When they finally list at NGX,people will expect the price to rise.This is where I have a problem.
My problem is that I will like to buy it then at N300 and this will lead to another red which might introduce the real bears to the market.

I am sensing a market crash post listing of Dangote Refinery.

The regulators will later regret why they brought a monopoly company to list at the exchange.

Dangote will monopolize NGX join to their business

The free float could be less than 3billion units because a lot of institutional investors and HNI will be buying the IPO as well.
So who would sell his/her refinery share at N300 to anyone when the cost was N525 and they know the prospects?
The price may come down a bit but a 40% discount is unrealistic.

davidotokiblog1:
That’s an important historical point. Britain played a major role in the events that shaped the establishment of Israel in 1948, including the period of the British Mandate in Palestine. The history is complicated, though, and the competing claims over the land have remained at the heart of the Israeli Palestinian conflict ever since.

Only those who want to hide from the truth would start discussing the land from 1948.
Israel has history on that land which goes beyond 3,000 years ago!

There is elephant(DR) in the room (NGX), now shaking and disrupting everything
We need to tame it

Cool tempers......ice water
Everybody go drink some ice water and come back to your pc/phone

ghm:
To confess, I actually took your post as a personal concern and the reason for not letting it pass. Not letting it pass is not necessarily against you but to help those who are looking for genuine balanced information like myself.

Your post is an emotionally charged rant disguised as financial critique. It demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of capital markets, makes unsupported claims about Dangote's character, and relies on logical fallacies rather than evidence.

First, the criticism of the share volume ("124 billion units is madness" is baseless—share count alone is meaningless without context of pricing, market capitalization, and the company's capital structure. Many successful companies issue large volumes to ensure liquidity and broad retail participation. The speculation about a future public offering ("PO" is just that—speculation—and not a valid basis for criticism.

Second, the comparison to Space X is flawed because Space X is an american company listed in America with it's capitalization and sturcture, making any comparison of share structure irrelevant and misleading.

Third, the accusation of greed for retaining 84% ownership ignores that founder-led IPOs typically retain majority control to maintain strategic direction and governance stability. This is standard practice globally, not evidence of bad faith.

Fourth, the dismissal of Dangote's "national asset" statement misrepresents his point—calling the refinery a national asset refers to its strategic economic importance, not its ownership structure. There is no contradiction between private ownership and national significance.

Fifth, the claim that Dangote "just needs Nigerians to make his voice loud" is an unsubstantiated accusation with no evidence. It assumes bad faith and political manipulation without proof.

Sixth, the demand for 50/50 ownership is arbitrary and unrealistic. It disregards the billions of dollars Dangote and his partners invested, the lenders who took risk, and the basic principle that equity belongs to those who funded and built the project. No one who did not contribute capital has a legitimate claim to dictate ownership terms.

Finally, structurally, the post is a disorganized block of text with poor grammar, run-on sentences, and unclear arguments. It jumps from topic to topic without a coherent thread, making it difficult to follow or take seriously.

In short: the post is emotionally driven, factually weak, logically inconsistent, and structurally poor. It offers no data, no market analysis, and no credible alternative—just outrage dressed up as critique.

Eiii...see grammar and construction!

This why I always blame Kabiru at Ayetoro village for always taking me along to hunt for rabbits in the bush instead of allowing me go to school to learn the English language very well.

[quote author=Monibabakan post=140587580][/quote]okay

Monibabakan:
It is Pre-IPO as I stated in the post.

That means the post-IPO shares will be 129.5b+?

Monibabakan:
Let me share some information having gone through the propectus (draft):

Pre-IPO

Outstanding Shares - 125,480,769,230

2026 H1 EPS - N20.87

2026 H1 Annualized EPS - N41.74

Annualized P/E ratio based on IPO Price of N525 - 12.58

BVPS - 122.19

PBVPS - 4.30

The experts in the house can also share theirs.
The above not to be take as a financial advice, due diligence advised.

Please confirm:
The 125.480769b shares. Is it pre-IPO or post-IPO

ppogba:
It is because you don't know that some have the monopoly of knowledge on every mattter on this investment side of Nairaland.

Sarcasm!

The massive fall in prices at this time is adding to potential investors' frustration with Dangote's refinery IPO.
A lot of investors had probably planned to sell some of their shares to buy the IPO. But with this intense price losses, it becomes like a double whammy - selling at a loss (or reduced price) and buying at an expensive price

yMcy56:
What a comparison!
Was ZICHIS hyped?
When it was listed, some Ogas also were against the stock while some of us believed in her.

If you believed in your DR, go for it.
No one can prevail on my opinion with cheap blackmail.
DANGREF does not meet my own criteria for now, simple!
When listed, we'll be here to buy if criteria changes to positive......God willing.

You are perfectly right to stick to your opinion. And I cannot fault you.

It is rather curious, that you have been very bullish and supportive of virtually every stock that listed, both old and new, including FTGInsure, Zichis etc.
But you now describe Dangote refinery IPO as ''hyped''. The largest refinery in Africa owned by one of the largest conglomerates in Nigeria!. Interesting!

chimex38:
Using digital method won't affect affect it much.
Non-tech savvy investors have banks managers, brokers, aids etc that will willingly collect paper copy/hard copy and help them digitize it.

It's no big deal.

Rather the electronic method will even skyrocket the oversubscription.

I don't think so,
Rather, the electronic method could be used to detect and reject duplicate or multiple applications by the same person, which would not be the case if it were purely via hardcopy forms, like it used to be.
The electronic forms could be screened and sifted easily to disqualify or reject some applications

chimex38:
Hmm...another angle.
This pointer almost certainly guarantees 100% oversubscription.
"almost".

The use of electronic application might curtail or reduce the oversubscription to some extent.
From my understanding, any investor planning to use the hardcopy Application Form must apply for a minimum of 50,000 units (N26.25m)