Ositadima1's Posts
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I have an entry signal for SUNUASSUR; if the resistance level of 1.16 is breached below, it will indicate that my analysis is incorrect. This stock is not liquid, and I would not risk more than 50K in it. So, with an investment of 50k, I expect 50K, which could be used for beer and smoked pork meat, or cream and relaxer for the ladies. ![]() |
SonofElElyonRet: |
emmaodet:I asked Claude 3: To calculate the EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) correctly, we need to use the information provided about the market capitalization (market cap) and the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Given information: - Air Macklon's stock price is $45 per share. - Market capitalization is $13.5 billion. - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 10. Step 1: Calculate the earnings (net income) using the market cap and P/E ratio. Earnings (Net Income) = Market Cap / P/E ratio Earnings (Net Income) = $13.5 billion / 10 Earnings (Net Income) = $1.35 billion Step 2: Calculate the EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) from the net income. EBIT = Net Income + Interest Expense + Tax Expense Since we don't have information about the interest expense and tax expense, we cannot directly calculate the EBIT from the given information. However, we can use the enterprise value (EV) and the provided EBIT value to work backward and find the correct EBIT. Given information: - Enterprise value (EV) is $43.5 billion. - EBIT is mentioned as $3.4 billion. If the EBIT is $3.4 billion, and the EV is $43.5 billion, then the EV/EBIT multiple is: EV/EBIT = $43.5 billion / $3.4 billion ≈ 12.8 This matches the information provided in the example, which states that "Macklon's EV was $43.5 billion, or nearly 13 times its $3.4 billion in EBIT." Therefore, the correct EBIT for Air Macklon is $3.4 billion, and not $1.35 billion, which represents the net income calculated from the market cap and P/E ratio. In summary, the EBIT of $3.4 billion is the correct value based on the given information about the enterprise value and the EV/EBIT multiple." |
Objectivist04:A trick that I have used to my advantage in the past is to chat with customer care on the CSCS website (https : // portal .cscs. ng/home/index). There is a chat box somewhere on every page. Start a chat on workdays during work hours, and the person on the other side will direct you on what to do and provide you with email addresses to send your complaints to the appropriate places. It is actually good to have an account with them so you can see all your stocks and quantities yourself. |
Good or Bad?
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ositadima1:ETI: Up 18% Guinness: Up 15% Average: 16.5% Expected profit: ![]() Guinness recorded 28.5 million Naira today alone, while ETI is liquid enough that 2 million Naira can be easily withdrawn. |
Locotrader: "The more I live, the more I learn. The more I learn, the more I realize, the less I know." - Michel Legrand "Anyone who stops learning is old, whether at twenty or eighty. Anyone who keeps learning stays young." - Henry Ford |
emmanuelewumi:This is a very thoughtful observation. I was about to make the same point before I saw your post. Capitalization and GDP, though they may hint at overvaluation or undervaluation, should not be taken simplistically. One needs to look at other factors. For example, it is possible that most of the companies in Nigeria driving the higher GDP are in the private sector, and it would be wrong to use the market capitalization of publicly traded companies to judge the overall economy or overvaluation or undervaluation of the NGX. While in the South African case, it is possible that a large number of the traded companies have subsidiaries outside the country repatriating dividends, like MTN, MultiChoice, and some other brands. |
vacanci:When I was arguing this very point, the same guy was asking me if I was making money in this market, implying that my reasoning was flawed. He also stated in one of his posts that he could spot opportunities and tell you when to enter, but he would not reveal when to exit, which should have been a red flag. The thing is, with such stocks, you should have a target exit point that hopefully falls within the period it was still trending. Once the trend is over, you will be trapped until the next trend emerges. |
emmaodet:I asked Claude 3 for help: The criteria you mentioned are part of Benjamin Graham's guidelines for identifying potential "Defensive Investor" stock picks, as outlined in his book "The Intelligent Investor." Here's some more context and explanation for each point: 1. Earnings growth: Graham recommended looking for companies that have demonstrated a minimum increase of at least one-third (33%) in their earnings per share over the past 10 years. However, to smooth out any potential fluctuations, he advised using 3-year averages for the earnings per share figures at the beginning and end of the 10-year period. The rationale behind this criterion is to identify companies with a proven track record of consistent earnings growth, which is an indication of a well-managed and financially sound business. 2. Moderate price-to-earnings ratio: Graham suggested that the stock's current price should not be more than 15 times the company's average earnings over the past 3 years. This price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio threshold of 15 was meant to ensure that investors were not overpaying for the stock relative to its recent earnings performance. A moderate P/E ratio acts as a margin of safety, reducing the potential downside risk if the company's earnings were to decline or if the market's valuation of the stock were to become more conservative. By combining these two criteria, Graham aimed to identify companies that not only had a solid history of earnings growth but were also trading at reasonable valuations based on their recent earnings performance. This approach aligns with Graham's philosophy of investing with a margin of safety to minimize potential losses while still allowing for long-term growth. It's important to note that these criteria were proposed in the 1940s and may need to be adjusted for current market conditions and inflation levels. Additionally, Graham's approach focused on defensive, low-risk investing, and more aggressive investors may seek different criteria. He gave this example: 1. Earnings growth - A minimum increase of at least one-third in per-share earnings in the past ten years using three-year averages at the beginning and end: Let's assume a company called ABC Ltd. had the following earnings per share (EPS) figures in Naira: 2013-2015 average EPS: ₦2.50 2020-2022 average EPS: ₦4.00 In this example, the EPS grew from ₦2.50 to ₦4.00 over the 10-year period, which is an increase of 60% using the 3-year averages at the beginning and end. This meets Graham's minimum threshold of a one-third (33%) increase in EPS. 2. Moderate price-to-earnings ratio - No more than 15 times average earnings of the past 3 years: Continuing with the example of ABC Ltd., let's assume the company's current share price is ₦75, and its average EPS for the past 3 years (2020-2022) is ₦4.00. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio would be calculated as: P/E ratio = Current share price / Average EPS for the past 3 years P/E ratio = ₦75 / ₦4.00 = 18.75 In this case, the P/E ratio of 18.75 would exceed Graham's recommended maximum of 15 times the average earnings of the past 3 years. Therefore, ABC Ltd. would not meet this specific criterion for a "Defensive Investor" stock pick based on Graham's guidelines. It's important to note that these are hypothetical examples, and actual Nigerian companies would need to be evaluated based on their reported financial statements and stock prices. Additionally, Graham's criteria should be used in conjunction with other fundamental analysis techniques and adjusted for current market conditions and inflation levels in Nigeria. |
Itsrm:As a newbie who is still refining their skills, I believe that a bear market will generate more of those 10% opportunities. If the focus is only on quality stocks like GTCO and others, there is potential for such gains. Especially in GTCO's last bear market in 2022, I studied its movement and noticed that its decline was not a straight line. It would fall, then in oversold regions, it would rebound, often making a 7 to 8 percent upward move (taking a couple of days) before falling lower. It repeated this pattern many times. The best part is that it was doing so with good trading volume. I am still learning o. |
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Ades1:Is 170k not money, and why do you think it is causing me stress? I ask this question because it seems to be a common theme in all your responses so far. The ETI I called closed at its highest point of the day, and it may possibly gain another 10% to 20% or even more. I have already told you that if you prefer, you can chase the same 8.5% return with 50 million. You said that is risky and prone to losses, then I clarified that every investment carries some risk of loss. The funny part is that I was using the 2 million figure as an example, yet you started making personal assumptions. Do you know whether I am a dividend investor or if that 2 million is just a portion of my annual dividend that I dedicated to this particular investment? Do you know how I generate my trading calls? How can you assume I am feeling stressed? Do you know whether I have an automated system that generates such trading calls? You seem to be making too many assumptions, my friend. |
Ades1:No one is immune to risk. If in doubt, ask those who bought Nigerian Breweries' shares above 100 naira or those who lost their money when companies went under, even here on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NGX). You have to first understand that traders and dividend investors are running different businesses. A trader's business is to speculate on the movement of a stock while keeping risks low, while a dividend investor's business is the same as the stocks they hold as a part-owner, also trying to keep risk low. As long as stock prices move up and down, there is a business opportunity and money to be made by traders. |
Ades1:Nothing stops you from using 50 million to trade. At least an 8.5% return should give you a profit close to 4.5 million. With such moderately large capital, you would not have the flexibility that someone with smaller capital has. You would need to check liquidity before entering a trade. You can invest 50 million in target stocks 2 or 3 times a year and close with a profit of around 15 million for the year. Or, you could aim for higher returns; the possibilities are endless. It is a misconception to think that you are not "sharing money with other parties" when you depend on dividends. In reality, you share your profits with the company's staff, raw material vendors, and through taxes. In short, you cannot conduct any business without using part of your revenue to facilitate costs. |
Streetinvestor2:For Morgan Capital, one round-trip transaction should incur a cost of less than 2.5%. Therefore, with an 11% return, subtracting the 2.5% cost would result in approximately 8.5% net profit. An 8.5% return on an investment of 2 million would yield 170,000. Although this may seem modest, a few of these transactions can accumulate into a substantial amount. A meager 5% monthly return compounds to an impressive 79% annually, outperforming SUKUK, bonds, and Treasury bills, though with a higher level of risk. ![]() |
ositadima1:With ETI trading at 25.5, representing a 16% gain from the price of 22 at my call, and Guinness trading at 46, a 7% increase from 43, the short-term target of just 3 days has yielded target returns. It's not bad performance. I could easily close the trade now, having reached the 11% target (with equal weighting), though I believe they could potentially perform even better. ![]() |
A whole 16 soldiers were allegedly murdered without the assailants suffering any losses. This is the greatest embarrassment faced by the Nigerian army. Is this part of the deteriorating affairs of this country? Then there are the alleged unprecedented levels of budget padding. I strongly feel that something drastic is coming, and I hope that when that happens, our investments in the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NGX) will be spared. ![]() |
Mankind2024:If you can acquire Guinness stock at #43 or lower, there is a high probability that it will provide returns of at least 10%, and potentially more. However, if the stock price falls below #41, then know that this assessment is incorrect. Similarly, for the stock Eti, if you can purchase it at #22 or below, a minimum rise of 10% can be expected with high probability. Again, if Eti's stock price decreases below #20, then this prediction is wrong and a stop-loss should be triggered. Regarding the ARIMA model's analysis, there was no significant signal generated last week. ![]() |
ogawisdom:The way I would compound it is by doing three consecutive Treasury bills, which would take a month plus. For the first T-bills, I would put the #10 million at 21% (assuming this is the rate) and get #2.1 million upfront. For the next auction, I would put the #2.1 million at 21% (again assuming a constant rate) and get #441 thousand upfront. For the next auction, I would put the #441 thousand at 21% (again assuming a constant rate) and get #92.6 thousand upfront. At this point, I would stop and keep the #92.6 thousand. At the end of the tenures, one year and a few weeks from now, they will start crediting one after the other: #10 million, then #2.1 million, and lastly #441 thousand plus the #92.6 thousand, which sums up to #12.633 million (profit of 2.63 million) . So, by compounding this way, you would make an extra #533 thousand. ![]() |
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Agbalowomeri:That explains how he is always able to buy anything; there is no stock that he doesn't have in his portfolio, real dollar men of NSEMPA. |
yMcy56:Stocks never move in a straight line; you know that, right? ![]() |
Mankind2024:Again with conspiracy theories without going in-depth to understand what really happened. There are several resources available now that the average person can dig deep and get a more balanced perspective on things, thank God for the internet and AI. "In 2018, MTN Nigeria was embroiled in a dispute with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) over the alleged improper repatriation of $8.1 billion from Nigeria to South Africa. The CBN claimed that MTN Nigeria had not obtained the necessary approvals to repatriate these funds, which were dividends and technical fees paid to its parent company, MTN Group, over several years. While public companies can repatriate profits and pay dividends to their shareholders, the issue in this case was the alleged violation of Nigeria's foreign exchange regulations. The CBN accused MTN Nigeria of failing to obtain the required certificates for the repatriation of the funds. Initially, the CBN demanded that MTN Nigeria refund the $8.1 billion, but after negotiations, the parties reached a settlement in December 2018, wherein MTN Nigeria agreed to pay penalties. The controversy highlighted the challenges that multinational companies sometimes face when operating in different regulatory environments, particularly concerning foreign exchange controls and the repatriation of funds across borders. While MTN Nigeria maintained that it had followed the necessary procedures, the CBN's allegations and the eventual settlement suggest that there may have been some lapses in compliance with the applicable regulations." ...copied If there is contrary evidence, I would like to learn about it. ![]() |
chillykelly86:https: //www . google . com/amp/s/businessday.ng/technology/article/ihs-risks-losing-n380bn-tower-deal-with-mtn-nigeria-over-dollar-pricing/%3famp=1 https: // punchng . com/mtn-reviews-tower-contracts-due-to-fx-fuel-cost/ |
The great "Tinubulation" happened to us all, both big and small, yet some people are in denial. |
MTN's financial statements were released, yet some people chose to believe in conspiracy theories that make no sense. Why would MTN want to fake losses?
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Mankind2024:* MTN's exposure: MTN has foreign currency-denominated liabilities (e.g., dollar-denominated debt) and local assets and liabilities (e.g., masts, office equipment, and naira-denominated debts). * Impact on financials: With the naira's devaluation, the value of MTN's naira assets and liabilities remained the same, while its foreign currency liabilities increased when converted to naira. This difference resulted in a reported foreign exchange loss. Also, MTN's operational performance was very good, but the currency fluctuation adversely impacted their financial statements. |
owolabi5:After brainstorming with Gemini, we came to this conclusion: Having a dedicated investment arm to manage foreign currency investments and assets could potentially help companies in Nigeria hedge against currency devaluations and inflationary pressures. |
WantsandMore: ![]() |
WantsandMore:What I write here is inconsequential in the grand scheme of things. I don't think it has any effect on what the market will do. I am just trying to make a rational guess based on my observations and watch what the market will do. The more I engage in this kind of feedback loop exercise, the better I will get at it. You should try it, bro. ![]() |
2zona:The raw materials: iodine, brine from seawater, and fresh water for washing are sourced locally in abundance. In fact, anyone with rudimentary knowledge can produce salt. For equipment, they can either use low-cost solar evaporation or vacuum pan evaporation that requires vacuum pans, crystallizers, and centrifuges, which may not need to be replaced regularly. In the case of other companies that had foreign exchange losses, a lot of their raw materials and machinery were imported, with some on short-term loans. Though transportation and packaging costs may go up, the effect will be manageable for salt production companies. ![]() |
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