₦airaland Forum

2zona:
Regardless, the share price will still receive it's fair share of bashing on Monday.

And that will be very good for those smart investors who seize the opportunity.

sterlingD:
Dangote Sugar

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/40435_DANGOTE_SUGAR_REFINERY_PLC-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_MARCH_2024.pdf

Not very bad. Dangsugar still has a very large positive free cash flow, bigger than a lot of other stocks sef. Revenue increased, though COGS increased as well, probably due to Mr. Tinubu's "reforms" - the same ones that caused huge exchange losses.

I am not saying that alleged siphoning and laundering by politicians is not contributing. I think it is more that money that should have provided an enabling environment for domestic industrialization to thrive is being diverted to private pockets.

jedisco:
Quote you struck out said 'Excessive printing was the major driver of the devaluation we see today'. Keyword: major driver not only driver.

Secondly, the exchange rate is a secondary index primarily driven by certain fundamental economic functions such as productivity, money supply, etc.. The question should be what has driven up our exchange rate?

In 2015, our naira in circulation was 21 trillion. Today, it is 93 trillion. Thats 4x increase while our productivity (in GDP) has remained stagnant over same period.
If our CBN keeps printing tens of trillions and handing over to politicians to loot as it did over the last 8 years, it does not matter if we go on dry fasting for the next 4 years, the resultant inflation would get worse.

I understand what you are saying. I am not clear how far the effects of money laundering have on the economy, but we are very clear that Nigeria is not productive enough and relies too much on foreign goods. I don't know where you are based, but if you look around you and make a detailed appraisal, you will see that more than 80% of the finished products have been imported with zero contribution from our domestic manufacturing. How do you want to survive like that?

Every single piece of clothing you own - whose cotton, sewing and packaging is imported - has contributed to our dwindling reserves, whether in the CBN coffers or the Aboki saves in the streets.

The USA imports a lot of things, but their productivity is still tops, from software to sophisticated products. And it has more currency outside their country stashed in safe havens by individuals than Nigeria does, believe that.

jedisco:
Hehe... most people now see they ultimately have a dog in the game. All said, Nigeria is a country with a little social security net meaning there is no depth to which folks can't potentially fall to. People are now waking up to the reality of protecting their investment.


I expected CBN to come fighting at 1500. For a brief period, I worriedly thought they lost the battle but kudos to them, they threw almost the whole sink at it. It was at 1500 they devalued the official rate, changed rules for importers, started selling USD to banks, relicenced BDCs and started supplying them, settled many airline debts, heavily targeted crypt0 exchanges, further increased interest rates... Main thing untouched is dom accounts
Some of these have little effect but when used together, should count for something and I'm expecting relative stability at the level for sometime.

The big question now is whether underground work is being sone to ensure longterm stability. The biggest announcement in all this was the end of the reckless money printing of PMB called 'ways and means'. Excessive printing was the major driver of the devaluation we see today. If they stick to their guns and don't devise underhand means to print recklessly, then that should ultimately tame inflation and enable the radically different approach by BATs government to bring some rewards.

Printing money is not the only potential source of inflation, and a falling exchange rate of an import-dependent nation can also contribute to inflation.

Here's a breakdown of the two:

Printing money:
* Increases the money supply in circulation, potentially exceeding the growth in available goods and services.
* This imbalance can lead to higher prices as demand for goods and services outstrips supply.

Falling exchange rate:
* Makes imports more expensive for the domestic economy.
* As imported goods become more costly, businesses may raise prices of their products and services to maintain profit margins.
* This increase in import prices can then ripple through the economy, pushing up overall inflation.


Key differences:
* Origin: Printing money directly influences the money supply, while a falling exchange rate is an external factor impacting import prices.
* Control: Governments have more control over printing money, while exchange rates are determined by market forces and can be influenced by various factors beyond a single nation's control.
* Impact: Both can contribute to inflation, but the mechanism and potential scale of their impact can differ. Printing money can have a broader and more direct impact, while the impact of a falling exchange rate depends on the extent of a country's reliance on imports.
...Copied

AngelicBeing:
Before you delete this your comment, let me bookmark it

Darkness falls across the land
The midnight hour is close at hand
Creatures crawl in search of blood
To terrorize y'all's neighborhood
And whosoever shall be found
Without the soul for getting down
Must stand and face the hounds of hell
And rot inside a corpse's shell

The foulest stench is in the air
The funk of forty thousand years
And grizzly ghouls from every tomb
Are closing in to seal your doom
And though you fight to stay alive
Your body starts to shiver
For no mere mortal can resist
The evil of the thriller

Hahaha aaah hahaha, hahaha.

ositadima1:
February 23 Forecast ??

February 10 Forecast gave 7%

February 17 Forecast gave 7.7%

February 23 Forecast 0%

The AREMA model did not make any predictions today.

Imagine holding money but you can't buy food because it is simply not available. What about the problem of getting out of your house because it is not safe outside?

It is plain weird. Do you even pause and think, or is this a case of being blinded by the thrill of short-term gains? You converted your money into dollars, so why don't you give it a rest? Yet you have to come here, to a thread meant for Treasury bills, to promote dollar buying. I think subconsciously, or maybe consciously, it is more about monkey hunting than real concerns towards the other readers.

The continuous wailing gets very tiring. "It will go to 1500, it will go to 2000, it will go to 3000," what the heck is wrong with you people? Let me explain what you don't seem to understand.

Yes, the naira has devalued for a long time, but not at this rate. Look around you and see the effects - people are being stretched thin. If it continues like this, your money will mean nothing. When 20% of the population is pushed to criminal activities, your dollar-denominated assets that are now doing 500% returns will mean nothing. But shortsightedness will not allow you to see what is coming.

The rate at which the naira is falling is not good, especially for a country that is import-dependent. The chaos that will ensue will render your profits useless. You keep encouraging everyone who has spare naira to change their money at the expense of everyone - your eyes will clear eventually.

yinkaoke:
Hello people, please does any has the new treasury bill auction calendar? Kindly share please.
Thank you

Here are some key details on the Nigerian Treasury Bill auction calendar:

** Treasury bills are short-term debt instruments issued by the Central Bank of Nigeria on behalf of the federal government.
** T-bills are issued at maturity periods of 91 days, 182 days and 364 days.
** Primary market auctions are held bi-weekly on Wednesdays to issue new T-bills.
** The Central Bank of Nigeria publishes an advance annual T-bill auction calendar.

For 2023, the T-bill auction dates are:

January 11, January 25

February 8, February 22

March 8, March 22

April 12, April 26

May 10, May 24

June 7, June 21

July 12, July 26

August 9, August 23

September 13, September 27

October 11, October 25

November 8, November 22

December 6, December 20

** The deadline for competitive bids is 11:00 am on the auction day. Results are announced same day by 12 pm.
** Settlement is T+2 working days after auction day.

** For 2024, the tentative T-bill auction dates are expected to follow a similar bi-weekly schedule as 2023.
** CBN is yet to officially confirm 2024 auction calendar. But it is expected to follow the same pattern as previous years.

Owoblowblow:
Also, can the cost of production not be passed onto the customers? This constant lost is not acceptable. Thank u

Shebi 2 cubes of sugar is now 50 naira abi 100 naira. Lol.

ojesymsym:
Is there similar data for palm oil on the NBS site?

The Excel sheet has many pages with different categories ranging from imports to exports. I have attached the sheet for Q3 2023. You can get the other quarters from the site. Too heavy, go to

nigerianstat . gov . ng/elibrary/read/1241419

Owoblowblow:
Madam good afternoon,
This fx loss they confuse me self, I wondered if u could some thoughts on the reasons for this loss. I thought Sugar is from sugar cane well grown in the north. Or we they import this? Also, does this fx affects Bua food. Thank u

If you head to the website of the Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics, you can download their compiled foreign trade statistics for each year and quarter. For Quarter 1 of 2023, they imported "Cane sugar, meant for sugar refinery" worth 75.8 billion naira. In Q2 2023, the imports were 111.6 billion naira, and in Q3 2023 they were 157.3 billion naira. Q4 should be along the same lines, though I don't have the Excel sheet as it was not available when I downloaded the others.

This is a country with a large population and vast lands o ...

I don't know the exact percentage, but I am quite sure Dangote Sugar imports a significant amount from Brazil. They import using dollars, so any rise in the dollar exchange rate will translate to losses if they purchased those inventories on credit. This is because they now need to pay more naira for the same import quantity.

jedisco:
I see your point. Our views matter.

Issue here is that interest rates by central banks are not for purpose of generating profit but rather to drive 3 main macroeconomic levers viz: stimulating growth, combating recession and fighting inflation. During covid, major central banks crashed interest rates to zero so people and businesses could have access to cheap credit, keep spending and hence maintain demand.
Outside recession/inflation major economies maintain interest rates at very low rates to encourage businesses growth. In some nations, its even negative. I.e you loose money by buying government bond. They still get subscribed (just like here) as some financial houses/pension funds have to hold government debt as part of their core portfolio. The analogy you gave is right for an individual or business but not for the government. The average Westerner is able to get a loan to buy a house at 5% today. Meanwhile Nigeria is borrowing same foreign currency at over 12%. How can we compete? 'Lending' the government money hardly generates any economic footfall and hence shouldn't be overly rewarded moreso if it's new money being printed for this purpose.

Regarding oversubscription, they mostly take up what they set out to (rarely go over). I've stated why it'd be oversubscribed irrespective of the rate. Yes, there's high amount of money in circulation. The way to tame that is by stopping excessive printing and chanelling printed money to productive parts of the economy. What this does rather is push the can down the road so they print more next year and we're back to square 1 just like in 2018.

In the first part of your discussion, you made comparisons of interest rates. Did you consider that the inflation rate is over 20%? Have any of these European countries you looked at ever had such high inflation? Do you still think they will maintain the 5% interest rates if that were to happen?

"U.S. interest rates reached 15% in the early 1980s. This was primarily due to an effort by the Federal Reserve to combat extremely high inflation, which peaked at over 14% in 1980."

jedisco:
Seems the 2018 era of high interest rates.

The CBN would typically say its to battle inflation and attract foreign investors. We already know TBs are always oversubscribed irrespective of the prevailing rate. Why then are rates being increased? Like in 2018, I still ask

1. Where does the government get the money to pay the 20% interest on TBs? Is it more printing?
2. Who benefits from high TB rates- is it the rich large institutions or everyday folks?
3. If foriegn investors cared about local interest rates, why wouldn't they skip Nigeria and head to Argentina with over 100% interest rate?
4. With CBN interest rates typically forming the minimum floor for commercial loans, how would Nigerian businesses survive sourcing loans at over 20% when foreign counterparts are at 5%?

The next excuse is inflation but again I wonder if we are just blindly copying the West.
In Western nations, Interest rates and inflation reverberates throgh the society and reaches the common person. Due to good exposure to cheap credit, a rise interest rate means monthly mortgage payments and subsequently rents increase, house prices fall/stall, more interest on credit purchases for cars, holidays, gadgets e.t.c hence less demand. It generates a drag limiting discretionary spending. Hence why the west quickly conquered their highest inflation in decades by raising rates to 5%.
In Nigeria, How does this rate hike filter through to the common man and even then, how much discretionary spending do we make. How much credit exposure do we have

It's the reason why high interest rates hardly ever brings down inflation but instead causes more inflation, destroys businesses, enriches the rich/banks and leaves us chasing our tail. Keen to get alternative views.

But the rate of inflation is about 26%. Does it not imply that an entity borrowing your money today at 19% to pay a year later is actually profiting at your expense? The entity can simply invest your money and profit from the difference. For example, it can buy goods like palm oil, store it in large reservoirs, and one year later, they pay you your 19% and pocket the change. I'm not saying this is exactly what the government is doing, but I am answering your question that the government can have that money invested or even spend it today.

The other point you raised is that it is always oversubscribed. Maybe they are constrained on the initial offer quantity, and they rely on the oversubscription. Perhaps by hiking the rates, it will be even more oversubscribed, as I've heard there is a very high amount of Naira in circulation currently.

I'm not a professional, and these views are just layman's views aiming to see things from the other side of your argument. Thus, on another day, I can be on your side, lol.

February 10 Forecast gave 7%

February 17 Forecast gave 7.7%

February 23 Forecast ??

ositadima1:
ARIMA forecast for on or before next Friday. Minimum upward movement predicted: BUAFOODS to 398, GEREGU to 1093; and minimum downward movement predicted: MEYER to 4.7, MECURE to 9.22 by Friday.

This is not a recommendation, just an observation of the model's forecasts.

Let's look at the AREMA performance: BUAFOODS did 6.2%, GEREGU did 9.3%, and equal weighting would give 7.7%. Meyer and Mecure managed to stay steady. So far, it is making profit, though small.

The ARIMA forecast for next Friday predicts minimal upward movement for BUAFOODS to 409.8.

yMcy56:
Pricelist from Atlas's attached

Thank you very much, I appreciate it.

KayOn1:
Hello house,

For those using MorganCapital platform to trade, how do you set (ALL UNITS) or (NO SALE) bid/offer on their platform if it is possible?

Thank you.

I don't think that option is available, but there is the "immediate or cancel" option that does this:

1. Immediate execution: The order must be filled immediately, at least partially, at the current market price your selected limit price.

2. Cancellation of unfilled portion: Any portion of the order that cannot be filled instantly is automatically canceled.

yMcy56:
It's well.
Patience is required at this stage.
It's not only ACCESS that was affected.

@Mcy56, can you please help me with something?

If you use a broker other than Morgan Capital, could you provide me with their daily price list for Monday, February 19, 2024? It would be great if it contains the high, low, close, open, volume, value, and VWAP for each stock that day, similar to Morgan's format. I hope this is not too much to ask.

Thank you for your help.

How is closing Binance and other crypto trading platforms going to provide long-term solutions to the falling currency? Instead of tackling the root cause decisively, they are intent on preventing the commoners from protecting their money as best as they can. Beside the fact that most of them have millions of dollars stashed away. The moment Mr. Tinubu announced no more subsidies and naira unification, these woes intensified.

We all thought he had concrete plans to cushion the aftereffects. The NGX went on a crazy bull run, but now it has started declining, showing us that he is still adopting the same trial and error approach of the previous administration.

With the increasing prices, it is likely that fewer sales will be made. Maybe the increased revenues I was championing about may not materialize after all. I apologize if I led you astray in any way with my previous posts.

Below is a simple fishbone chart. The red portions are the root causes as identified by me.

Thank you.

Mankind2024:
I will say it again and again, Agbalowomeri is a spent analyst. This was how you have been scaring risk averse investors from joining the train of Transcorp, Zenith, GTCO and other equities with your Anticipated bear 🐻 that was killed by the raging bull when the ASI was static at 48k to 50k.
Your tool is outdated, you can never get the ASI @5% below d current level, which is expected 5% volatility, You still cannot call this a bear market.
A sustainable bear must drop the index by at least 20%.
At the declaration 📜 of dividends, the index will rally to 110K.
Your old strategy of Timing the Market would never work in this current dispensation.
Remember to incorporate 2 important factors which all the Timing tools would never addressed.
1. Inflation andCurrency floating
2. ***Local portfolio investors participation in the Market and uncertainty factor in Nigeria economy.
The above negate the effectiveness of your tools.
There would be no major events, other than predicted 5% market volatility (aka gbelo-gbebo)
Advanced Ichimoku strategy, Fibonachi retracement, Elliot wave, ARIMA model and the rest of these tools are currently ineffective and inefficient in NGX.
The best model for now, is follow the insider activities, follow the money bag, follow the speculation until the government provide a definitive solution to our economy woes.

It appears you are now acknowledging economic troubles, as I saw you previously claiming Mr. Tinubu had a masterful plan, supposedly evidenced by the bull in the NGX. If difficulties continue mounting in this manner, Mr. Tinubu may struggle finishing even his first term.

Take to the streets and witness people barely managing; there are limits to tolerance before societal stability frays. Word is the Tinubu administration currently expends more on subsidies than its predecessor did.

Leave my AREMA model alone o, and concentrate on bolstering your own strategy.

ARIMA forecast for on or before next Friday. Minimum upward movement predicted: BUAFOODS to 398, GEREGU to 1093; and minimum downward movement predicted: MEYER to 4.7, MECURE to 9.22 by Friday.

This is not a recommendation, just an observation of the model's forecasts.

emmaodet:
Your afrima predicted 730 for geregu which is doing 865 while it predicted 9.3 for Meyer which is doing 5.6 currently.
I will give the indicator 50% accuracy

I think Geregu is at 901.

I said a minimum of 730 and a minimum of 9.3. Anyway, it tried.

ARIMA is not my own model; it is a well-known model for time series forecasting. I am not that smart, lol.

ARIMA is an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model, which, in simple words, uses complex mathematics to make predictions.

My approach is to use ARIMA to scan the market with SciPy for profitable trades.

Anyway, it is still profitable, yielding over 7% overall, even when many stocks have lost more than 7% in the past one week.

ositadima1:
In other news, the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model predicts that Geregu stock will reach a minimum of #730 by Friday, representing an 8% gain. The model also forecasts that Meyer stock will hit a minimum of #9.3 by Friday, representing a 34% gain. We will have to wait and see how accurate these predictions from the ARIMA model end up being.

The ARIMA model did not perform too poorly this week if we gave equal weighting to Geregu and Meyer, with 33% and -10% returns if the market ends this way, respectively. An equal weighting would have yielded a 12.5% profit. Honestly, I don't know if I would have personally invested in the Meyer stock due to its low liquidity. Let's see what ARIMA will predict for next Friday.

RSQLPython:
Good people, which stock would you buy if you have N100m to invest?

Thanks

You need to put in the time and effort needed to learn about investing. There are no shortcuts - you can't expect to just be spoon-fed all the information. The best approach is to start by carefully reading through this entire thread, following it closely over time. Not everything posted here will be sound advice, so think critically about what you read and compare it to other reputable sources and books.

If you're too busy to do the proper research, you can either use the services of professional fund managers (many banks like fcmb, gtb and access offer these also UCAP) or put your money into low-risk government securities.

I heard sukuk bonds are paying up to 15% now, although you may need to commit the money for several years.

I hope not audio millions o.

In other news, the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model predicts that Geregu stock will reach a minimum of #730 by Friday, representing an 8% gain. The model also forecasts that Meyer stock will hit a minimum of #9.3 by Friday, representing a 34% gain. We will have to wait and see how accurate these predictions from the ARIMA model end up being.

In all this, Total Energies never shake body.

Other TA people they attach chart as them talk finish, Oga show us the chart, I no see any ASI o.

Everybody blood dey boil for here, not easy to watch your portfolio drop millions for this hard times o. If dividend on cost pass 14% no wahala. But stocks like Dang Sugar fit no pay better dividend o, but eh go still do people well.


I no say some people own drop pass 5 million, today alone. Pele o.