Ositadima1's Posts

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Education › Re: Evolution: People Then And Now(Funny Photos). by ositadima1(m): 6:07pm On Jun 24, 2023

MeezPat:
Pls can you assist me with materials and tools for technical and sentimental analysis...

You can start with technical analysis (TA). I will post a link to a PDF book that teaches the basics of TA. You will also need practical experience, so I will also post a link to a YouTube video that teaches how to start working with real charts. Most of the charts you see on NL are created using the website investing(.)com.

I don't usually use the site. I prefer to generate my own charts using Python, a programming language. This is just my personal preference.

Technical Analysis for Dummies: https:// drive. google. com/file/d/1tgO1fto5nZn08lUF_SlTjOcdHrWO_pQH/view?usp=drivesdk

The intro to charting with investing . com:
https:// youtu .be/S_tCASo8n_Y

Just remove the spaces.

1 Like

Education › Re: Evolution: People Then And Now(Funny Photos). by ositadima1(m): 11:52am On Jun 24, 2023

MeezPat:
Is this service free on bloomberg

Hi, MeezPat. I can't access my email. Can we talk here instead? I believe this thread is dead, so it's almost the same as an email.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:51am On Jun 24, 2023

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 10:05am On Jun 24, 2023

emmanuelewumi:
If you started from Treasury Bill or FGN bonds investment before trying the stock market, please identify yourself.

Such people tend to be better investors, they learn the trick faster, they understand the importance of investment income in compounding the portfolio and have better risk management.

My opinion though

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:13am On Jun 24, 2023

IYGEAL:
I agree with the first part of your post. Most ladies (no diss intended) hardly engage in deep convos, not even the deeper side of the movies they watch, let alone the stock market. It's always hairs, phones, trends, gossips, etc. Kudos to Mercy.

As for the second part, Mercy has always put caveat to most of her posts. Newbies have always been warned on this thread to start their journey with due diligence. Maybe she's being attacked because of Oga Loco who is a self-proclaimed MH.

Oga Osita no be newbie sha

PS. I left Chams yesterday at 57k. Journey started all the way from 21k. I initially offloaded 1/3 at 28k and wanted leaving at 55k but didn't get the chance. I also mentioned it here when I entered this stock. Technically, since it tested 55k, left it and now passed it to 57k, it's OK to assume it will now move above 60k next week. But I'm happy to leave at 57k when the volumes were enough for me. Over 150% ROI is good enough for me.

You're right, bro. What was I thinking? I was probably drunk on cheap tombo bitters at the time, yet again. grin

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 6:02am On Jun 24, 2023

emmanuelewumi:
Why, please give your reasons although I agree with your statement.

Na pastor dey give instructions to members of his congregation go sell their assets or investments in order to sow seeds, and the members of his congregation can't question his authority or directives.

I would love to know your reasons.

Thank you

Based on TA, a trader should have exited BUACEMENT long ago, like in February or March. Also, a trader who has been in the BUAFOODS trade for a long time should still hold, as there is no clear sell signal despite the stock being in the overbought region for quite a while. Neither stock is a good entry point at this time.

From FA perspective, BUACEMENT is very overvalued and is currently 65% above my estimated fair value. I have not yet calculated the fair value of BUAFOODS, but my guess is that it too has moved beyond its fair value.

1 Like

Foreign Affairs › Re: UN Adds Russia To ‘list Of Shame’ For Killing Hundreds Of Children In Ukraine by ositadima1(m): 8:36pm On Jun 23, 2023

Karnice600:
One reason I'm sometimes not cool with English is that you could speak so fluently, use or have a good knowledge of vocabulary but end up not communicating or offering answers to basic questions. Just like Wole Soyinka.

Russia's annexation of Crimea, was it for her survival?
Yes or No. If yes, then how?
Simple.

I have already answered your question. I do not see it as relevant to what is happening right now. However, if you would like to discuss Crimea as a separate subject, then I am happy to do so. So, would you like to discuss Crimea?

Foreign Affairs › Re: UN Adds Russia To ‘list Of Shame’ For Killing Hundreds Of Children In Ukraine by ositadima1(m): 7:37pm On Jun 23, 2023

Karnice600:
It annexed Crimea in 2014 and turned it to a Russian tourist location. Was that for its survival too?

Crimea has a long and complex history. It was part of Russia until 1954, when it was transferred to Ukraine. Most of its inhabitants are ethnic Russians. However, the current status of Crimea is disputed, and its relevance to the current happenings is a matter of debate.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 7:03pm On Jun 23, 2023

Because I believe in fairness, equality, and that everyone has the right to know the meaning of words regardless of their native tongue, I will explain that "aji amu" means "pubic hairs" in the Igbo language. These are the hairs that grow around the male penis. Thank you. cheesy

3 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 6:29pm On Jun 23, 2023

yMcy56:
Since when have we been talking about Chams here and it didn't leave circa 21/23k?
What about Lasaco? Since 2021! It even dip from post-reconstruction price of N1.68 to 0.81k!
What of Mansard?
What of Japaul? And many others like that.

Was I not talking about GTCO, DANGCEM, BUAFOODS, BUACEM, etc as well?

BUAFOODS was selling at N73 when I sighted value in it and I mentioned it here. Did it begin its Northwards journey immediately? NO! But today, it's close to 💯% in profit.

What of Fidelity? Since it was trading @1.66k, I've been on it's case....and many others like that.

My reason for buying UNITY was well stated here as well. I still have it for your info despite that it's shedding.
So, I know it will shed and I still kept it or I'm monkey hunting it and still kept it till now??

While I'm not saying we shouldn't caution, we should still be cautious of blaming when things goes South as well.
We all know how this market works, even the most "useless" stocks by our definition, may turn out to be the best rewarder in terms of performance.....Meyer, Dangflour, CWG, etc are ready examples.

You get strength o. In my circle, perhaps because of my humble social standing, the women I know are more preoccupied with their hair, clothes, and the latest gossip. Anything beyond Nollywood is too stressful for their brains to process. And here you are analyzing stocks. I'm sure your IQ must be over 120. Please, relax and do your thing. The people who enjoy your commentary know what they benefit.

As a small observation, you should also mention the inherent risks in some of the stocks so that newbies like me can fully understand what we're getting into. Thanks. wink

29 Likes 1 Share

Foreign Affairs › Re: UN Adds Russia To ‘list Of Shame’ For Killing Hundreds Of Children In Ukraine by ositadima1(m): 1:37pm On Jun 23, 2023

On the surface, Russia annexing parts of Ukraine, the military campaign, or even dictating what group a sovereign country should belong to, look terrible, annoying, and bizarre. However, if we ask ourselves some questions, we can start to understand Russia's perspective. Why should Russia allow NATO, which is controlled by the West, to expand to its borders? To allow them to deploy missile systems at their doorstep?

In my opinion, Russia is waging this war for its survival, and it is unfortunate that bystanders are suffering as a result. embarassed

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 12:23pm On Jun 23, 2023

BullBearMkt:
...that's fair @ositadima1.
Because I like it simple, I mostly rely on price and volume.

Let me show you (no vex, I no fit teach u o). Below is UACN line price/volume chart:
-Distribution: Since price started declining in 2013, price has never made Higher-high and higher-low until 2019 till date. That is strength in price
- Between 2019 - 2022 when price shows strength, volume rises above average. That simply implies, smart monies were buying at the low as people rejecting the stock (accumulation).
-Now, we have what is called BULLISH ORDER CANDLE established at between 8 and 8.90. This means, smart monies will MOST LIKELY not allow price to go below this level again (This level is a BUY)
-Long-Term: Except the company is liquidating/folding-up, else long term (>2 years) will touch the levels you mentioned. Example, attempt was made in May 2022 when price touched 15!

That is TA!!!

Oga BBM, nawao. You no wan teach me this work. cheesy

Yes, I saw the accumulation on the OBV chart and the vertical lines showing days with exceptional volumes. I also saw that the price maintained a narrow range in the other chart. I believe you, but there will be enough time to enter when the movement begins.

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:25am On Jun 23, 2023

BullBearMkt:
Nice 1!
then, long term?

The support/resistance levels at 16.39, 20.78, and 41.97 correspond to price returns of 64%, 108%, and 320% from 10, respectively. While it is said that prices do return to these levels, this is not guaranteed and depends on future events that I cannot predict. cheesy

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:08am On Jun 23, 2023

BullBearMkt:
...what is/are the conclusion(s) of your analysis?

Apart from stating my possible entry point, I think a 10-20% return is possible in the near term, but doubling investment may be difficult given the current observations. I could be wrong, of course. cheesy

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 10:45am On Jun 23, 2023

Mpeace:
?

Finally, Fidson is doing me good.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 10:28am On Jun 23, 2023*

The red and yellow vertical lines on the first chart indicate points where volume was considerable. The red line represents points where the volume was over 5 standard deviations of the last 200 days' mean volume, and the yellow line represents points where the volume was between 3 and 5 standard deviations of the mean volume. cheesy

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 10:23am On Jun 23, 2023*

BullBearMkt:
YOU COULD POSSIBLY DOUBLE YOUR INVESTMENT IN UACN STOCK
Already mentioned on the platform by another analyst. This is however, true. Lower risk with high reward

PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS

From the first chart below, which spans from 2015 to the present date, UACN appears to have many mini support/resistance levels around it, with 12 being the furthest apart. If I ignore the low trading volumes, I would target 12 for a 20% return. We can also see other support/resistance levels at 16.39, 20.78, and 41.97. However, the low volumes and not-so-good fundamental analysis (FA) make these levels very unlikely.

The second chart shows a close-up starting 2022, and it captures a support/resistance level at 11.14 for a 10% return. The red arrow shows where I would have entered based on my LRI, MA10, and MA20 indicators.

The table shows the annual returns, annual best (which implies buying at the low of the year and holding until year-end), compounded returns, lowest prices, the month in which they occurred, and the volume traded in billion units. Again, we can see that the traded volume is not impressive (0.11 billion compared to 0.63 billion from last year), even though we are in the sixth month of the year. Based on the pattern of the last few years, I would have known that below 9 would have been a good entry point.

The last chart is more of a trading buy/sell engine using Keltner Channels and moving averages (MAs) as a mean reversion strategy. The Keltner Channel has a 42-day period, and the MAs are 10 and 20 days. I would have entered on the red arrow, with the MA10 above the MA20, the closing price below the lower band, and I would probably exit when the MA20 is above the MA10.

cheesy

1 Share

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 7:17am On Jun 23, 2023

With AIRTELAFRI we can earn dividends in dollars.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 4:56pm On Jun 22, 2023

Dammlonge:
Pls am so new oo, can our mummy tell us wat is really happening to lasaco? I just got it on Tuesday and now it loosing twice @ ymcy56

Lasaco has returned almost 200% this year alone. This should serve as a lesson to you. If you had the Yochaa app installed on your phone, you could have easily seen this under the stock's performance history. From there, you could have asked questions and made an informed decision about whether to buy the stock.

Averaging down is not an easy strategy either. You have to know when to do it, and if you do it too soon, it may make things worse. If you can bear the drawdown, you may try holding the stock and hope for recovery. If you can't, you may want to sell it and use the money to enter the stock later or to invest in a different stock.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 2:19pm On Jun 22, 2023

YoungBuffet:
If anyone falls for UBA wash and rinse na to continue average down promax. They are all going back to the preset mode but prices would be managed to avoid free fall. Those that has liquidity power to push never come

Below is an excerpt from my post about my linear regression model. wink

ositadima1:
The linear regression line, like any straight line equation, has a slope and an intercept. If we put these together, we get the equation U = 2.66 + 0.22*Z, where U is the UBA price and Z is the Zenith Bank price.

U = 2.66 + 0.22Z is a model describing the linear relationship of UBA and Zenith Bank.

If the factors that have held the correlation of UBA and Zenith Bank are still in place, then either UBA will drop below 10 or Zenith Bank will move above 37.

Based on yesterday's close, a UBA share price of 11.45 points to a Zenith Bank share price of 39.95, plus or minus 2.41. Alternatively, a Zenith Bank share price of 31.75 points to a UBA share price of 9.645, plus or minus 0.75.

On the other hand, UBA's trading volume over the past 10 days has been higher than the mean volume plus two standard deviations of its volume since 2020. In other words, UBA's 10-day volume has been impressively large. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator shows no sign of a sell-off, meaning that the down days have not carried significant volume.

According to my fundamental analysis (FA), UBA still has 53% growth to achieve before reaching its fair value. Zenith Bank, on the other hand, has already surpassed my fair value of 28.5. UBA's last strong support/resistance level is around 8.82. To me, support and resistance are the same thing, depending on your perspective.

Therefore, I am receiving conflicting signals. Hopefully, UBA's future course of action will be revealed in the coming days/weeks.

I see that people like charts. I will post some later. wink

3 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 7:31pm On Jun 21, 2023

The way the country is being run, things are going to be very good for some people and very bad for others. I think YoungBuffet is right in a way.

The problem is not going to come from external forces, it will come from within. I think as we enjoy some short-term gains here and there, we should brace ourselves for what is coming.

Holding naira will not be the solution, because its value is not guaranteed. What looks like another bull market will come, but the problem is that it is not actually a bull market. It is just stock prices rising in response to a weaker currency. In essence, there will be a general loss in value, but not as much as if cash was held. Instead of cash, it is better to hold dollars, gold, silver, etc. I hope I am wrong. embarassed

3 Likes 1 Share

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:38am On Jun 21, 2023

YoungBuffet:
Only FPIs alone can pump solid 2weeks wtout stopping, make guys no desist from pumping now ooo we must hit 95k minimum.

They are not pumping some penny stocks, I wonder why. I thought Royalex should be up another 20% by now. cry

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 7:50pm On Jun 18, 2023

ojesymsym:
This strategy is like a trap, you can find yourself locked out. There are a number of times I have tempted to sell my Zenith shares but the fear of being locked out has always hampered me.

There is no trap. Check the Zenith Bank chart and see for yourself that it has gone high and fallen quite hard multiple times over the course of a few years. There are also stocks that have continued to move up without falling considerably, like UCAP.

So, you have to have a good understanding of stocks, timing and their usual behavior.

2 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 7:39pm On Jun 18, 2023

Heishere:
But the dividend yield is reduced. Unless the company increases their dividend, na broker gain for this scenario. Even the increase in dividend would have to be significant otherwise you will probably earn the same as before or less.

Why are dividends reduced? Dividends are paid per share, so if you increase the number of shares you own, you will automatically receive more dividends. Just think about it.

We should also sometimes be generous and allow others to eat. If we are eating very well, there is no need to be concerned about others eating from our labor.

5 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 3:00pm On Jun 18, 2023

sgtponzihater1:
Top wisdom. I am glad I read some of those books in the past. While many boast of using the latest iPhone, I am assured that I have shares in iPhone. When I have gathered enough to afford a new iPhone, I just buy some more of apple again instead, buying the latest iphone. One day my dividends will be paying for my iphones.

Imagine if your Tesla shares could buy you a new Tesla electric vehicle every 4 to 5 years. That would be amazing! embarassed

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 2:29pm On Jun 18, 2023

At my age o, I still watch YouTube Shorts and tiktok. I sometimes watch them in secret. grin

During one of my pleasure trips, I happened upon Robert Kiyosaki, the author of Rich Dad. He said that if he wanted to buy something expensive, he would first create an investment for it and then use the profits from that investment to buy the item.

My dividends from GlaxoSmith are now paying for my Ventolin inhaler made by GlaxoSmith. By the way, I used to buy it for 2,500 to 3,000 naira, but now it costs 5,000 naira. cry

16 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 1:38pm On Jun 18, 2023

Holding certain stocks that one likes can affect one's rational thinking, especially when one receives regular dividends from them.

For example, I bought 85,000 units of Zenith Bank at 22 naira and held onto them for a while, and the price went up to 30 naira. With a system to detect when a stock is overbought or ripe for a correction, the smart thing to do would be to sell and buy back later after the correction. Just selling at 30 naira and buying back at 27 naira, would have increased the holding from 85,000 units to 92,500 units without adding any new money.

Someone like me, who has developed cavities from the sweetness of dividends, would be happy to receive even more dividends in return. shocked

The point is that holding a stock indefinitely may not be the best strategy, especially if one can spot a correction coming.

grin

6 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 2:43pm On Jun 15, 2023

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 2:34pm On Jun 15, 2023

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 10:10am On Jun 15, 2023

Toluway:
Considering the 52 weeks high/low, why do you prefer dansugar to dancement at this time sir, as dansugar seem to have covered considerable grounds already. I have some idle pre- inauguration sales fund as well. This bull didn't wait till after inauguration at all.

Simply looking at a stock's 52-week highs and lows is not enough to have a holistic view. You must consider a variety of factors. Both technical and fundamental analysis favor DangSugar over DangCem. I could go on to describe the various metrics I used to reach my conclusions, but what would be the point?

Update to this very post. grin

ositadima1:
Here are some stocks, their fair values, and their divergence from fair value (VPD). I used 2022 reports as my source. PE was as of yesterday. You can see that I sorted them in order of rising PE.

I added Dangcem for effect. cheesy

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 6:43pm On Jun 14, 2023

It appears that the days of free money are coming to an end. I am referring to Treasury bills and bonds. We may not see interest rates as high as 15% or even 20% (and yes, that has happened in the past) for a very long time.

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 6:33pm On Jun 14, 2023

Dammlonge:
Pls assist me, am new in shares issues, which share can you advice I buy with 20000 and how can I monitor or learn how to the way stocks grow and come down. Thanks

Use the Yochaa app to track Nigerian and US stocks. With that amount, you can follow Oga Loco's investment strategy and potentially achieve a 100x or 200x return on your investment in a short period of time.

3 Likes

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