₦airaland Forum

tundess:
But Nigeria is in a better financial position than 2015 surely ?
We have record receipts from Customs, FIRS, TSA has plugged leaks, loans have been requested, infrastructure is being constructed, rice mills in every state, international airports under construction in every state, agriculture yields soaring, NPower is yielding new economic avenues for youths.
The world may recede but we'll be sailing in blue waters and clear skies.

emperor863:
No sir. The Nigerians that voted out GEJ did so as a result of patriotic zeal. As at 2015, only politically ignoramuses could have voted Jonathan in view of the unimaginable kleptomaniac tendencies that was so audible that the deaf could hear.

Stupid and ignorant people voted Buhari in 2015. His antecedents already sold him out as a failure in waiting.

What surprises me till date is the magnitude, I knew Buhari will fail. I never knew he would be this hapless and incompetent.

When people like Amaechi and Tinubu backed Buhari, it should have been obvious corruption and stealing would have been worse than it ever was!

Some of you fooled yourselves, some of you were motivated by religion or ethnicity. You wanted your kinfolk to be president or vice.

webizone:
I laugh in pidgin.

My brother e reach to laugh!

Jeferious:
What Shutdown to where? Death itself?

You clearly have no idea of what "shutdown" entails. Lemme enlighten you a bit with a question...."Between coronavirus and hunger backed by abject poverty, which would you fear more?"

Don't mind them! They don't know other societies are prepared.

Seetto:
So if buhari was not the president, they wouldn't have been Corona virus or the price of crude wouldn't have fallen to 28$ per barrel in 2015, guy you are not toddler, Nigeria is in big shiit, the country is a shadow of itself, our leaders failed us, look at pdp regime, they have all it takes to improve the economy, but stealing and looting becomes order of the day, now crude is useless where do we start from with all these challenges the country is facing.

PDP improved the economy, yes they could have done better. One thing is certain, they can't be worse than Buhari.

The stealing and corruption under Buhari's watch is worse than it has ever been under PDP.

OTayobami:
Oga haba now! You know how wealth distribution in Nigeria is and you're talking about total removal of subsidies from fuel, the simple thing is that, in saner country(countries with humans being as leaders and not animals) the reserves from the economy boom in 1970 would have been used to cushion these recent recession et' al

There is no way you will have a 'reserve' from the 70s when money is being wasted on things like subsidy. Norway started oil production in 1971. In the early 90s efforts were made to detach oil income from the economy. Today they have a $1triilion SWF. Petroleum products are not subsidized, in fact the tax it well. Norway has one of the highest prices for petroleum products in the world.

I hope you know that oil producing communities do not benefit from the subsidy regime in Nigeria.
If you see it as a wealth redistribution tool, for the oil producing communities it is an asset appropriation instrument.

Ayoefa:
1999 $16.56 $25.58
2000 $27.39 $41.02
2001 $23.00 $33.52
2002 $22.81 $32.69
2003 $27.69 $38.84
2004 $37.66 $51.39
2005 $50.04 $66.04
2006 $58.30 $74.59
2007 $64.20 $79.73
2008 $91.48 $109.25
2009 $53.48 $64.19
2010 $71.21 $84.24
2011 $87.04 $99.83
2012 $86.46 $97.17
2013 $91.17 $100.95
2014 $85.60 $93.24
2015 $41.85 $45.55
2016 $36.34 $39.02
2017 $46.27 $43.97
2018 $59.34 $57.77
2019 $50.46 $50.01

Just look up and see the facts -

Yes oil sold for about 17 dollars in 1999 when Baba Iyabo came in, the economy was not in a bad shape when he came in plus the prices went up and up from there. The price of 1999 alone cannot determine the economy for the many years that follows. The prices went up and up especially under Jona.
More importantly, the more the prices went up the more the govt was spending/wasting /stealing hence when it finally crashed in 2015 from $85 to about $36 the govt expenditure was already out pacing income therefore the reason why States were unable to pay salaries..
If Jona and Baba Iyabo had saved substantially and invested in a diversified economy, it would have been easier in 2015 to 2016 to absorb the shock of the crude oil price crash. The money made between 2000 and 2015 is the highest that the country has ever made from oil yet there were no major savings, investments in infrastructure and other capital expenditures. All the major capital expenditures that this govt is now embarking on should have been embarked on while oil was selling for a premium. Oil sold for more than 100 DOLLARS under Jona, pls tell me where are the capital investments to justify such incomes.
Point of fact - when Buhari came in in 2015 there were already fuel lines and States were already struggling to pay salaries.

Nigeria's income went from $86 to $36 dollars over night and you don't expect a recession? Try living on an income of $36,000 down from $86,000 and tell me you will not have serious changes n your life style.

That is NOT true!
Either you are not familiar with how the whole thing function or you are deliberately trying to push a narrative that is wrong.

Many of the reforms Obasanjo and Jonathan embarked on were reversed by late Yar'Adua and Buhari respectively.

You talk about falling oil prices causing Nigeria's woes.
What about wasteful decisions Buhari made?

Exploration in the North east, tradermoni, 5,000 Naira for the 'poor', school feeding etc.
These are activities that don't strengthen economic growth in any way.

In 2015 three simple actions would have helped weather the storm.
1. Free float of Naira
2. Subsidy removal
3. Infrastructure loans for critical infrastructure that would help diversify the government's revenue stream.

A follow up to that in 2016 would have been privatisation of entities like NNPC and massive investment in health, education and infrastructure.

Japhet31:
I refrained from insulting you. I decided to believe your conclusion was not randomly reached. I just don't think they're correct is all.

The US generally doesn't like too much strength in it's currency as it discourages local production in America and encourages the exportation/outsourcing of jobs. It's in fact one of the reasons Trump repeatedly berates China's Xi Jimpin(not too sure if the spelling) and accuses the latter of currency devaluation.

So yes ..the USD is the world's reserve currency...but allowing it to strengthen without concordant economic realities will not do the US too much good either.

If you ask me ..I think the fact the US just lowered their interest rates....along with massive funds Trump's government has promised to inject into the economy are amongst the chief reasons for the dollar upside.

Had we not been operating a shadow economy ourself, these recent announcements of Corona donations by banks and governments should have stimulated our economy into some recovery too but ...

Our presidential team seems embroiled in putting out too many fires at the moment ...and we don't know who's leading the country at the moment. All these uncertainties only make Investors want to liquidate. Thus leading to our current predicament. They will soon start banning some items from being imported now... That's one thing Emefiele seems to be good at doing.

The bold area is not a true reflection of the situation.
There are three reasons why their 'stimulus' won't function.

1. It is not large enough
2. They are not serious about it, it is just a window dressing exercise.
3. The stimulus doesn't get to those who need it the most.

DaInferno:
A time will come when u will say it's better they should have locked down... Numbers been increasing everyday since.

People are not against lockdown. Making provisions for the masses before a lockdown is important. Nigerians can't afford a lockdown. In some countries you barely have people who receive daily pay. In our case they are the main group.

kikero:
1.Buhari did not cause this current recession or the one that happened on his watch in 1983-5

2.The recession that happened under Buhari in 1983-5 started when oil prices fell in 1982...which even prompted Shagari to bring in austerity programmes by 1983.

3.Likewise the recession under this current admin started in April 2014...when oil prices collapsed due to the Saudis trying to outproduce American shale oil producers. By January 2015...NOI was warning that whoever won the election, there would be economic crisis.

4.The truth is, our economy has been vulnerable since independence. The economy depends on revenues from whatever raw materials we sell , whose prices we do not control. In the 1960's it was agricultural produce. By the 1980's, oil was taking over.

5.Where Buhari and others make mistakes is that they spend too much controlling prices on vital sectors like petrol and power. This limits the amount of investment that can be poured into both sectors, leading to job lossess and financial losses...especially from subsides which is money down a bottomless pit.

6.Because of our large population, we need oil at $139 per barrel and above, since 2017, up from $120 per barrel since 2012....to run a balanced budget.(despite our cost of production being below 30 dollars). Since 2010...we haven't had oil prices that high. That's why we are taking debts via borrowing...the money we are earning is not enough and has never been enough for our needs.

Oil is at $25. We need it at $140. We are losing at least $115 now per barrel of oil sold. (More information on my figures here)

Also due to the low oil prices, we are losing an average of $35.76million or N13.1 billion per day in accruable revenue

7. The way froward eventually...remove subsides , allow power and petrol to be run at a profit....which brings in investment and jobs. We did this for the GSM sector. Why can't we do this for power, petrol?? To long term help us transition into a producer economy...which produces goods whose prices we can control.

Modified

To anyone who thinks I am defending the current administration, see my points 5 and 7 and reflect on them. Also look at point number 6 and them make the assumption....we need to change our economic paradigm.

There is nothing to defend about this APC government. It is obvious they have failed. However, my problem with most critics of this administration is that they criticse the effects...they don't think about the cause of the effects. If we can think about the cause of the effects, we may be on the way out of this economic crisis.

The problem is, the solution involves some hard decisions. Removing subsides...and so on. The problem also is, APC, like PDP exisits to share the national cake, not to think about how the cake is baked, or how we assemble the ingredients.

Buhari caused the severity of this recession! Inadvertently he caused this recession.

The actions that would have averted or minimized the impact of the recession were not taken.

1. If Buhari knew how dire the situation was he should not have been wasting resources, searching for oil in the North East.
2. Buhari's push for multiple exchange rates further compounded Nigeria's woes.
3. NOI warned on how dire the situation was in 2015, yet somebody in that situation decided to select his cabinet in 6 months! What is more annoying is that despite taking too long, he ended up having career politicians as ministers.
4. As you pointed out, he refused to remove subsidy even when he had the opportunity in 2015/2016.


The list is endless! Anyone who had the political capital Buhari had in 2015 could have reformed the country in a very significant manner. The buck stops at his desk. After Russia's last recession they made moves to protect their economy from fluctuating prices in the energy market.
People with no idea on what to do should just seat at home and stop disturbing our peace. Buhari never had anything to offer, still has nothing to offer and will probably have nothing to offer in the future. He has the wrong mindset, he lacks the intellect.

Perhaps Nigerians will place aspiring leaders under greater scrutiny in the future.

bigpicture001:
We can't manufacture ventilators....but for welder nd carpenters...its an emergency...nd they can't com out nd make like 1000 beds...nd test kits

They can make 1,000 beds! The problem with we Africans is that we always try to go for easy fix. The truth is, we may not even find any where to buy beds.

On the ventilators, conventional equipments manufacturers are already overwhelmed. In situations like that, countries stop imports.

Innoson said he can make ventilators. Let's give him that benefit of doubt. Let's support him in his bid to make them. The government should provide men and material.

bigpicture001:
...foolish donations....what we actually lack is bed spaces...can't these billionaires entrust to a private NGO who will import nd set up plenty man shift hospitals nd ventilators nd den offer it to govt. The money will go the way of abacha loot

Why should we import?

What stops welders or carpenters from building substitutes?

Ojiofor:
So the sophisticated westsiders are stupid after all?
Lmao.

No exemption, if you voted for him in 2015 you are stupid. If you did it again in 2019 you are brain dead.

saniby:
Now it is becoming clearer why you take your line of thought - Buhari is your problem, simple. It may be worthless venture trying to show you that no nation anywhere built vibrant economy by subjecting itself to foreign manipulations. Kingsley Moghalu (with all due respect to him) is a typical western trained economists who by virtue or providence like many of them, became CBN Deputy Governor. I wouldn't take his words as final when it comes to nation economy building. I advice you to listen to the remarks made by Dangote at the CBN event aftermath the oil price crash. Here https://nairametrics.com/2020/03/11/diversification-may-no-longer-be-possible-in-few-years-dangote/ you can pick some of the points. As you can see, it wasn't Buhari's making. He also spoke about the illusion of FDI you guys keep talking about. He said it will not happen. That it is we Nigerians that will build our economy. Aliko Dangote has undoubtedly proved he knows the art of nation economic building.
...But people with preset mindset are difficult or rather impossible to convince with facts. I will have to leave you with your thoughts ..till God know how long.

Corona Virus is real. At least you should believe that from me.

It was Buhari's making. Dangote wouldn't say anything that could be viewed as anti-government because he knows how they will react.

In the last 5 years Buhari and his government has been at best reactive not proactive. The problem with many of you is that once people proffer solutions that will affect your special interest constituency you tag them as " Western ".

If you disagreed with Kingsley Mohgalau you should have left him out of the picture in the first place.

Under Buhari the highest growth rate has been 2 percent. Coupled with that, there is no time in his 5 years in office inflation has been below 9 percent.

It makes no sense!

500 billion Naira per annum is spent on 'social safety nets'.
Please correct me if I am wrong.

That is a wayward and wasteful way to destroy Nigeria's fragile economy. Oil exploration was done in the Chad basin. Who does that?

Is that how Buhari intends to diversify?

Buhari is the worst thing to behalf this country! Even worse than the Nigeria-Biafra war. More people would have probably died from hunger, terrorism and other avoidable causes of death.

Buhari may have good intentions but he lacks the intellect and fails to receive advice from those with the intellect required to weather the storm.

I can see, you are one of Buhari's blind worshippers. Initially I thought your stance was based on ignorance. You just confirmed it is being fueled by bias.

DabuIIIT:
Buhari sef

Buhari self na 'birus'!

Ibime:
One mans virus is another man's visa

Unlimited22, visa done land!

https://www.nairaland.com/5758685/coronavirus-apply-work-visas-usa

The drop in crude oil prices took a number of sovereign rating cuts on oil-exporting nations yesterday, including Nigeria, Mexico, Angola, Ecuador and Oman, although the major cause of the oil slump, Saudi Arabia and Russia, were both spared.

Nigeria was pushed deeper into ‘junk’ territory to B-, Mexico was lowered to BBB, leaving it just two cuts from junk, Colombia is now just one step away, while Angola and Ecuador were both chopped into the CCC default danger zone.

S&P Global Ratings agency said in a summary of its action, “We have lowered the ratings or assigned a negative outlook on some sovereigns because of their heightened risk to manage the fiscal and external shock resulting from lower (oil) prices in addition to the blow to economic growth as a result of the pandemic.”

Crude oil prices have dropped more than 60% this year as the combination of an oil market battle between Saudi Arabia and Russia and the global Coronavirus pandemic.


S&P also slashed its Brent oil prices assumptions for the year to $30 a barrel as part of its move. It warned last month that a drop to an average of $40 could leave the Middle East region’s average sovereign rating just one notch above ‘junk’ by 2040.


In addition, India, the third world largest crude buyer, slashed interest rates in an emergency move today, to counter the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic after the Federal Government locked down the country in order to slow the spread of infections across the region.

The Reserve Bank of India lowered the benchmark repo rate by 75 basis points to 4.40% after a video conference meeting of its monetary policy committee (MPC), which was brought forward to respond to the crisis.


Even before the COVID-19 struck, India’s economy had been struggling and growth had probably weakened to at least an eight-year low this quarter and is likely to slow even more.

https://nairametrics.com/2020/03/27/sp-downgrades-nigeria-to-junk-rating-as-india-cuts-interest-rates/

Nice development!

CanadaOrBust:
First Prince Charles. Now Boris Yeltson. What exactly is going on in Uk

Boris Johnson NOT Boris Yeltsin.

saniby:
You are saying "Buhari regime detoyed Naira by trying to depend it" as if that was not the defacto policy of the CBN. It was rather an attempt to float the Naira that actually eroded most of its value. Portfolio investment in converse
to FDI is being encouraged by people with your like-thinking (Naira should be floated, retain high MPR) who are more for the foreigners tgan for Nigerians, that churned out such monetary policies at the CBN (MPR, CRR etc). And I ask you to pls show me how could high interest rate will attract FDI.

If you cannot achieve some exchange stability, the best you can attract is portfolio investment. So it's a vicious cycle. FDI will flow with stable exchange rate.I don't know if you are awre what led to the exit of Etisalat from Nigeria. You people keep looking at the problem as if it has single variable, but the reality is it is multi-variable.

Floating a currency requires substantial local production, foreign market and huge foreign reserve to support undue distortions. None of these applies to Nigeria, why then are you hell bent on given adult prescription to a minor? The least you can is to allow him grow or change his prescription. It is that simple.

You quoted Kingsley Mohgalu. Go and watch his most recent videos!
Devaluation for Nigeria is unavoidable. It is either she takes charge of the process or waste her reserves and still end up having a devalued currency.

That investors prefer portfolio investment is primarily the fault of Buhari. Nobody wants to invest for the long haul in an economy basic human and corporate rights are not respected. A country judges are mistreated. All of these activities help shape the perception of prospective investors.

What is needed is simple, a plan on how the country can embark on import substitution. A start would be deregulation of the downstream sector. Since 2016/2017 the NNPC should have been privatised or restructured. The fact government still holds on to NNPC shows we are not ready to diversify. We could have boosted reserves through both actions. As things are now, we can't get the valuation we would have gotten in 2016 for NNPC in 2020. I am afraid it may even get worse in 2022.

The government should as much as she can, get her hands of business. That's the only way we can deal with many of these issues.

bluebay:
Please Google it. Hater

Na kwestion I ask abeg!
If I don't hate Buhari it is Goodluck my "uncle" I will now hate?

saniby:
The same rhetorics. You have not explain how devaluation will ever help the consumption based Nigerian economy. How?? More costly machinery, more costly raw materials and labor agitation for more pay. Inflation will abound and the economy will slow down leading to more poverty and deprivation, which in turn fuels insecurity...this will be the end result.
I'm not expecting fixed value for the Naira for a 50 year period! No. what I expect is for the economy to have resilience to keep exchange variations within acceptable limits. There will always be transients with every natural system model. But you don't allow transients to define your rates, because they are temporary. Rather, you protect against them till you reach convergence.

What happened with the Naira in 2015 was due to some people in government that heeded to the advice of some of you (advocates of free floating the Naira), that was what saw the Naira crashing to about N500/$ in the parallel market. If not for the quick reversal and depending, it could've reached N1000/$. Why, because you cannot satisfy the round-trippers who are non productive lot surviving only on speculations. They are aide in Nigeria by some economists that want us to wear an overcoat in a hot sun.
Already some of them are speculating the Naira as over valued. The likes of Kingsley Moghalu, said it should have a value of about N400/$. Then the parallel market value should be how much,.....? Fill in the gap pls.

We have to operate within peculiarities of our environment, and not be relating our case to a case study of entirely different environment.
We've never had a single exhange rate in Nigeria, not for as long as I can remenber. There is always PARALLEL market rate. It is mainly these parallel operators that fuels speculations leading to uneven devaluations. Actions of such speculators in the climes you mentioned above could have earned them jail terms and wealth confiscation, for their role as economic saboteurs.
But here we allow people who cannot play by the rules, to trade in our currency at our detriment.
Can you buy Pound Sterling at rate other than the market rate in the UK just because you are desperate? Or can you sell it at any rate you wish?

WE MUST PROTECT OUR NAIRA AGAINST THESE UN-NATURAL FORCES.

You ended up saying NOTHING!

In 2015 the Buhari government destroyed the Naira by trying to defend it.

What was required was a free float, fiscal strategy on how to reduce imports and petroleum subsidy removal.

Foreign portfolio investors left in droves between 2015 and 2016 because they saw the need to protect their capital in USD terms. Nigeria's failure to manage the concerns of these investors led to capital flights. China for instance can adopt capital control measures because most investments in China are foreign direct investments, SOEs also play an important role in economic development. That's not the case in Nigeria.

I knew Nigeria is unprepared. Never knew it would be this bad. Sadly, governors like Sanowo-Olu and Wike are making Buhari look like an apprentice. They expose his gross incompetence in no small way. Despite their flaws, they look like stars in comparison with Nigeria's absentee president.

Post of Europe is under partial lockdown. Only few communities are in complete lockdown. In such cases the military, red cross and other relief agencies make alternative provisions for the masses.

StreetFight:
Fashola fought and curtailed Ebola, not Goatluck Jonathan.

Also, it is CURTAIL and not CONTAIN. Stop speaking like imPatience Jonathan the illiterate cantankerous sheppopo

You MUST be coming from Lalaland!

The same Fashola that can't handle just power.

Under what capacity did Fashola handle it? As health minister?

Some of you should shut up so that your stupidity is not seen by the whole world.

There where Ebola cases in Lagos, Rivers, Enugu state. In fact the Federal government had to bring the Enugu index case back to Lagos. It was somebody who escaped from quarantine in Lagos.

Professor Onyebuchi and Labran Maku were on top of their game. Not these incompetent folks in charge now.

chatinent:
I wished it cannot can kill.

Sadly it can, if it couldn't there wouldn't have been global action to contain it.

bluebay:
100% correct and he was Acknowledged and awarded for that.

Who awarded him?

[Amidst deaths and other daunting health challenges occasioned by the rampaging coronavirus the world over, former President Goodluck Jonathan has asked Nigerians to remain courageous and faithful.

Jonathan who made the call on his Facebook page on Thursday said that this is a time to show good citizenship, solidarity and patriotism.

Recalling the zeal and support shown by Nigerians in 2014 when his government battled Ebola virus to a standstill, Jonathan also called on the people to redisplay such enthusiasm and readiness to combat the coronavirus, assuring a complete defeat of the disease soon.


Also read: Pay special attention to families of 22 soldiers killed in Mongonu — Emmanuel
Jonathan wrote: “Today our world faces a global crisis that threatens our peace, hope, and freedoms. Across the globe is the climate of fear, havoc, and consequences of a new enemy, Coronavirus Disease- COVID – 19.

“Fear Compatriot, this is not a time to fear or despair; it is a moment of responsibility, courage and faith. It is time to demonstrate good citizenship by yielding to relevant policies and guidelines put in place by government and its agencies to combat the challenge of COVID- 19.

“As a country, ours is a history of many triumphs in times of global and national challenges. In 2014, through solidarity and unity of purpose, we combated the dreaded Ebola virus.

“More than ever before now is the time for action, solidarity and patriotism. Let’s all brace up and work together to combat this new scourge COVID- 19,” Jonathan said.]

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2020/03/together-we-defeated-ebola-in-2014-well-win-war-against-covid-19-%e2%80%95-jonathan/

The headline should read; "UBA donates to Lagos". That's all I see! Barely anything to the rest of Nigeria or Africa.

dederocs:
you saying Mark Zuckerberg and Dangote are Satan...

I didn't say so! I don't know them personally. All I am saying is that God is not the sole source of wealth, some source theirs from Satan.

dederocs:
Which windows Dangote(muslim), mark Zuckerberg(jew), and the jewish establishment dey collect theirs from

Satan self dey follow open windows! Not every window is a blessing from God.

Satan even offered my Lord, Jesus all of the world if he bowed before him.

I don't have to tell you the windows that are being opened. Any Christian who fails to benefit in a bountiful way has failed to understand the principles of kingdom wealth.