₦airaland Forum

DexterousOne:
If Nigeria does not float its currency at least
And continue to waste its money on subsidies (on petrol and on the currency)
Nigeria will remain a shithole for decades to come


Structural Adjustment Program is NOT a bad program in itself


We are not just ready to do what is needful to make that paradigm shift


In typical African fashion, we are looking to blame the Europeans or some imperialist for our problems and foolishness


Let Nigeria continue on this path
Let's see what Nigeria fate will be in 30 years from today

I cannot understand why people think we should continue to spend the money we don't have to defend the naira and spend on subsidies.
Anytime, there is fall in oil price,we will go to the west to beg and borrow money(dollars).
We will later turn around and blame them for our woes after we have squandered the money on frivolities.

AMINDA:
If having a regional currency provides a buffer to European countries from individual shocks then why do they prevent Africa from doing the same? Emmanuel Macron spent last year's Christmas in Africa where he hijacked the proposed West African single currency ECO by renaming the CFA franc to ECO, with the help of his stooge, Alassane Ouattara of the Ivory Coast. The ECO was due to be launched in 2020 and talks have been going on for years. As a form of bribe, he conceded that Francophone African countries need not save 50% of their foreign exchange in the French central bank anymore. Do you know that French speaking African countries still pay Colonization tax to France till this day?

The Asian Tigers did not grow merely by adopting IMF policies, that is false. They were propped up by the West as a form of checkmating the influence of the Soviet Union in the region during the cold war. They enjoyed things like technology transfer, foreign aid, investments, access to the large western markets and some elements of protectionism to enable them grow. None of these were due to devaluation. Africa didn't enjoy all of these because we were already more or less conquered and the incentive to lure us away from the Soviets was not there. Japan even had to pay a huge sum of money to South Korea as restitution for having occupied their country. Where is the restitution from the West for both slave trade and colonialism? Instead, we are the ones paying restitution to them.

Historically, the West had to adopt protectionism to grow some of their industries but today, any country attempting to do the same will be immediately crippled through sanctions and tariffs. I ask again, why should devaluation be our only economic strategy as Africans?

China today is being vilified by the West simply because they now see them as an economic threat, whereas the wealth of American capitalists was built on cheap labour from Chinese workers. They are now threatening to pull their industries from China which is a little too late as the cost of labour in China is beginning to rise due to their rising middle class. India and Vietnam is the next destination for cheap labour and even some Chinese businesses are beginning to outsource some of its production to Vietnam in preparation for the gradual phasing of China into a service based economy as is obtainable in America and Britain. Every country or region should be allowed to phase its own path free from encumbrances.

We are our own problem not the west that you are alluding to.
We have been on this single currency in West Africa for how many years that I cannot understand why anyone will say it is France that is the problem.
Do we trust ourselves in Africa.
How many countries in west Africa have even met the pre qualification requirements that were set by ECOWAS for adoption of a single currency.
Is it France that is stopping us from meeting those requirements for how many years now?

Nnamz:
Random post. I just spoke to a medical doctor from Nigeria. He has been in Canada for only 3 years so I asked him where he got his medical degree from. Guess where: Nigeria. Our very own Nigerian graduate practicing medicine in Canada with a degree from Nigeria (okay maybe he had to take a one year course since he's from another country, especially a third world country like Nigeria). If you are reading this right now and have plans and hopes and aspiration of going overseas to work, I am here to tell you that you will not go to that country (at least not Canada) to sweep roads or drive taxis or do some other menial jobs. If someone can practice medicine in Canada with a degree from Nigeria (a shithole country if we are to call a spade a spade), then believe me that you can travel overseas with your degree and be anything you want. And as for those saying they know Mr. A who left his managerial job in Nigeria or medical job in Syria only to go overseas to drive a cab, please check with this person and get their story straight. Once again, we have Nigerian doctors here (though I've only just met one) with degrees from Nigeria practicing medicine here so don't be discouraged by the naysayers.

You cannot practice medicine in Canada directly with Nigeria certificate.
There are processes you have to go through and it is a bit complicated.
Canada is not like UK where with your medical certificate from Nigeria, all you need do is write exams and passed to be qualified.

dangle:
No dividend.

They actually need more money to shore up their capital base.
That is the only negative I see with them.

IamR:
I am currently going through that now. I have been trying to transfer some funds but Zenith turned it down twice. I will try to do cash withdrawal by next week.

The dorm account wahala is just too much.
Stable crypto coins to the rescue.

Uchetoba:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/30449_MUTUAL_BENEFITS_ASSURANCE_PLC._FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JUNE_2020.pdf

I don't like insurance

Any dividend?

freeman67:
https://www.sunnewsonline.com/over-n10bn-losses-await-speculators-as-abcon-hits-forex-market-2/?utm_medium=Email&utm_source=Zenter-System&utm_campaign=%2320333+%3D%3E+MORNING+NEWS+HEADLINES&utm_content=237647a8583bdfce43ff137440aa6c373756c742


For those concerned. Focus on the goal. Put your ear on the ground andavoid unnecessary distraction so you will not be left carrying the can.

It look to me like a sponsored article from ABCON. It has been circulating since how many days now? ABCON wants dollar from CBN.
The CBN doesn't need to warn anybody, they should just flood the market with dollars and crash the rate.

Mcy56:
Una still dey on top this JAPAULOIL matter?
Jegede surely have JuJu wey im dey use. He don weather all sort of storm. Always in the news for one thing or the other.
Make Una chill, na Naija we dey. You said more than this during diamond time.
Don't know why you didn't see the positive aspect of this issue......but never worry yourself, worst scenario, JP will go back to 20kobo.....at least that's what you all wanted.
Since those that bought at N14 didn't die, those who bought at 30kobo will surely be alive too if it goes back to 20kobo.

For all the negative sentiment, the price might still go up.
If you are comfortable with the stock, just do your thing your own way without looking for validation from anybody..

ahiboilandgas:
which will cbn bail out first zzzzmicro finance bank or a unity bank?

A healthy bank doesn't need a bail out.
CBN will only bail out a sick bank and we can always know those who are sick if we care to do our due diligence.
Unity bank is sick and is on a life support.

AMINDA:
Are you sure we don't produce anything that can be sold to earn dollars? I would give an example with agriculture. Africa accounts for 75% of global cocoa production but only gains 2% of a 100 billion dollar market for chocolate.

Quick questions, why does the price of cocoa keep dropping, but the price of chocolate never drops? Why would the price of cotton fall, but the price of textiles never fall? Why would the price of coffee beans fall but the price of brewed coffee never fall? Africa is projected to spend over 110 billion dollars importing food from the West by 2025, majority of these foodstuff are what we can produce here in Africa.

Akinwumi Adesina recently proposed to invest 25 billion dollars of Africa's money to improve our value chain in agriculture in order to address this and all of a sudden, he isn't good enough for the United States?

I am not laying all Nigeria's or Africa's problems solely at the feet of the "White Man" but to pretend not to see how foreign policies like devaluation are detrimental to Africa in an already skewed global system would be very preposterous.

In Nigeria, the oil sector contributes about 95% of foreign exchange earnings.
This is the major reason why the country is always in trouble whenever the price of oil falls at the international market.

Yes, Africa accounts for a good percentage of global cocoa production.
However we all know that the money is in the value you can add to the raw materials.
The question is this, who is stopping us from adding value to what we are producing?

ahiboilandgas:
Treasury bills 4 percents vs unity bank fixed 8.5 percent....i rather take risk with unity bank than a micro finance bank ....

Some microfinance banks are healthier than unity bank.

ositadima1:
The same issues that plague our refineries also affects other government parastatals and the civil service in general. In the private sector most times "job security" depends on an individuals productivity - if you can't deliver you will get fired very fast.

Government needs to start firing people at will, right from the top down. If your section is not putting out results and you get warned a couple of times then you get fired irrespective of how long you have been at the job. This is the only way to incentivize a work force.

We have a bloated, unproductive, wasteful and corrupt civil service. Until we are bold enough to streamline and restructure the civil service, Nigeria might not move forward. Politicians are not the only problem, the civil service is a big mess.
Unfortunately, this is one of the things that SAP talked about.

AMINDA:
Can you kindly name a country where devaluation worked as an economic model? The IMF and co who are the drivers of such policies never recommend it to themselves when in similar position, only to African and poorer south east Asian countries. When Italy and Greece faced financial crisis, the EU quickly bailed it with several billions of dollars but curiously, there was no recommendation for devaluation, subsidy removal and other conditionalities that comes with such loans when Africa is involved.

In 2016, the then President of the IMF, Christine Lagarde was in Nigeria to personally pressurize Buhari to devalue the naira, Buhari kept resisting until he could no longer resist anymore. The result? Immediately he devalued, Nigeria went into full scale recession. Why hasn't devaluation worked for countries like Zimbabwe and now Venezuela? At a point in Zimbabwe, it was cheaper to use the Zimbabwean dollar to plaster your house than to buy a bucket of paint. One piece of egg cost more than five thousand Zimbabwean dollars. Zimbabwe became the only country in history where everyone was a millionaire but still poorer than a church rat. I would leave you to research what Venezuela is currently going through.

Nigeria has been devaluing since the 1980s and apart of putting less money in our pockets and reducing our purchasing power, nothing has changed. It is one of the greatest weapon of neo-colonialists and it is only designed to make the poor countries poorer. Sad thing is they now sell some of these policies through our foreign trained sons and daughters in form of Ngozi Okonjo Iweala and co. People like Adesina of the AFDB who are pro Africa are blackmailed and removed from their spots when they do not conform. Open your eyes!

The same West that tells us to stop all forms of subsidy still provide subsidies to their farmers as seen in America and the EU. Excess products are sold to Africa at a rate where our local markets cannot compete.
Our solutions must come from within and must be locally tailored, not text book based! Devaluation has not and will never work in Nigeria, at least for now.

Shalom!

Nigeria did not enter into recession because we devalued the naira. We experienced recession because of falling crude price.
Nigeria technically entered into recession by q2 2016 and we didn't devalue officially until 2017. It could even be argued that we eventually entered recession because we delayed some of the actions we should have taken earlier including currency adjustment.

AMINDA:
This is exactly the point I'm trying to make. You have to see the hypocrisy behind this. Once upon a time in Nigeria, everything was almost free for the citizens, Healthcare, Education, Water, Government freebies, the naira was strong, everywhere soft. Then came some white men but this time, not in uniforms but with suit and tie. They told our leaders to stop those handouts, remove subsidy, devalue the naira, privatize everything, etc, in exchange for loan. They called it Structural Adjustment Programme ( SAP).

Shagari who was the President was about to sign on it when General Buhari overthrew his government and refused to sign. After a few years, Buhari was ousted in a coup in what some analysts say was foreign sponsored.
In came IBB, the Evil Genius. The white men in suit approached Nigeria again. To give his decision some semblance of approval, he threw the floor open to the populace through townhall meetings and despite a greater percentage of Nigerians being against the policy, he went ahead to sign. Nigeria was never the same again after that.

The hypocrisy is that, when it suits them, the White men still provide food stamps to the poor, bail out their failing industries and subsidize their farmers. The very same thing which they say we must never do. Instead, they keep telling us that the only solution lies in devaluing our naira. And we've been forced to do that on several occasions making them richer in the process, but things keep getting worse for us. "Devalue further " they say. Sadly, some of us still believe them.


https://punchng.com/nigeriansll-pay-higher-electricity-tariffs-fg-promises-imf/

Some of what you highlighted here are reasons the country is where it is today.
Why I don't believe that devaluation will solve all our problems, I think it is wrong to ascribe devaluation to IMF and white people.
What options do we have when we don't produce anything that can be sold for us to earn dollars. Devaluation is an economic issue and not a sentimental one. It is not the west that made us to rely solely on oil for our fx earnings..
OBJ privatised refineries before he left but it was cancelled by his successor.
How much have we wasted on those refineries since then? And why are they still not working? Is it IMF that is not making it to work?

emmanuelewumi:
Very possible for them to sell at a loss , move on and diversify into other stocks,

Your N2 million can be trapped in an illiquid and dead stuck for over a year, thereby missing other opportunities

It took me 3 years to sell my Mutual Benefits Assurance and Standard Alliance shares

I still have my aso savings that I want to sell, even at 0.20k, no one is willing to buy.

OgogoroFreak:
Patching and adjusting exchange rate would continue to only have short term effect. Nigeria must start producing alot of things we use and government should subsidize them to make affordable for citizens till they get used to the products.

China did not get to where it is today without the complete support of the government.

I am even surprised that people are attributing the relative success in rice production to devaluation and border closure.
We seem to have forgotten that it was a deliberate efforts of government at supporting the production of rice with all manner of incentives to farmers and those who process it that culminate in the success story.

ojesymsym:
You mean he will dismantle the cartel and create a new one like he did with the cement thing?

Just like we have in cement.
We are producing enough cement but price is higher than neighbouring countries and one of the highest in the world.

ojesymsym:
Dangote vs Cartel
...
I think he is a formidable opponent.

He will join the cartel and everything will be the same with only difference being that we will not be importing fuel again.

ojesymsym:
How come no country where IMF advocated for its use was able to make it a success. Many of these policies are trojan horses. Good on paper but bad in practice.

Ignore the IMF,Let look at what SAP was all about, living within our means.
What are those things that you think are not good in SAP?

ojesymsym:
For me, as long as IMF is the one advocating for devaluation I will view it with suspicion. Devaluation is another name for SAP used by IBB during his time, complete failure.

SAP was actually misunderstood by the general populace.
I am of the opinion that if SAP was properly done then, Nigeria by now should have been a better country.
Most of what the people were against are what we are doing now.
Imaging if we had privatised Nitel, NEPA ,airports, refineries etc in the late 80s and streamline our ineffective civil service.

DrAwo:
Uba plc 5 year/ q1 2019 & 2020 analysis...

Good job, thumps up !

ositadima1:
Still on FCMB matter, will history repeat itself?

Also, I cant remove those annoying S, D and P symbols for split and dividend. Any Ideas?

This is instructive, well done.

DeRuggedProf:
I love your guts....

Real guts.
I am also not very bullish about NSE but I don't know if zenith will go back to N11.

meshpips:
Just ZENITH for now sir. That is the one I have volume computations for.

I have a buy outlook for ETI but entry would be at a lower price (3.57).

If zenith should fall to N11,then ETI at 3.57 will also most likely happen.

LordAdam16:
The CBN did not merge all rates to a single rate.

I don't want to type out large blocks of text. I'm seeing a 6 where you're seeing a 9.

Clearly, the CBN has the reserves. Clearly, there's been an oil price rebound. Clearly, things are looking up globally. Clearly, most economists and CFOs do not see a substantial mid-term devaluation in the horizon.

Therefore, it is not helplessness stopping the CBN from intervening more strongly in the parallel market, it is a policy decision. For the moment. In March, you could call it helplessness: In June, it isn't.

As the Americans would say, "If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck."

-Lord

We shouldn't forget that the recent accretion to the fx reserve has something to do with the IMF loan of about 3.4 b dollar granted to Nigeria.
I personally don't think it will be a wise decision using that money to defend the naira.
I expect the fluctuations in the parallel market to continue till when CBN will have enough dollars to meet the market need.

Skymoore1004:
I meant I have 200k to invest in the NSE stock market. So if eg Dangote is a good one, I can buy 10k worth of shares.

So I’m just looking for the right stocks to buy
I’m a novice in NSE

NSE is different from the US market.
I will advise you hold your money and learn the basics first so that you can do your picks yourself. TA or FA, your understanding of the subject matters most.

You can see the confusion with people recommendations already.
For me the most important rule is not to loose money.

Mcy56:
When you don belleful, how will you be moved?
JAPAULOIL sold for 20kobo on Monday and delivered 50% today, within 5 working days, I wonder how you won't expect someone like me to follow smart money chop.
I can remember vividly how you opposed me during the CCNN time. Stock delivered over 150% ROI (gain) within a space of less than two months. The tiny units @13+ in my portfolio is currently showing over 200% gain.
Please let's not discourage people from making a call here. Individual's responsibility is to carry out due diligence by themselves before they decide to buy or not to buy .......just saying.....

My position about BUA and CCNN has not changed.
I will not discourage you again since our approach to the market are different.

rebekah2011:
return to profitability going forward ke? Have you looked at the revenue and administrative expenses. A coy sold almost all its assets to pay down on bank loans and you are hoping for a right management. I like your closing remarks. We wait and see how it goes.

We have been there before so some of us are not moved.
When you see people trying to validate their call on a stock with upwards movement in price without any corresponding improvement in company fundamentals.

4tunebest:
I would eternally be grateful to my dad for making me go through that phase to find my feet by myself. After growing up as an ajebutter, I needed to be schooled in the reality of the other side of life which paid off for me 'cos I wouldn't have developed the skills to make me valuable enough to be recruited by my current employer. Enough said

No matter how hard your parent may be, your experience cannot be compared with someone who is coming from a poor home.

rationalmind:
This model of tradesmen is understandable. My grouse is with those who give the " I can't save because my salary/income is not enough" excuse. They are mostly the ones doing online almajiri all over nairaland and twitter.

A distant friend once told me her friends wedding was fast approaching and she needs me to borrow her money for asoebi and to sew it. When I asked why she can't take from her savings, her reply was that the money she earns where she works can barely cater for her basic needs and she lives from hand to mouth.

My advice to her was this, wear whatever you have to the wedding. If that won't fly, you can decide not to attend. Heaven will not fall.

That obviously was not the response she wanted so the discussion ended. Few months later, I went through her status and realised she ended up buying the cloth and attended the wedding. My guess is, she got someone else to borrow her the money.

When she collects her salary, returns the money and whatever is left cannot sustain her for the month, she starts telling whoever cares to listen that her salary is not enough.

If salary is low, it will be very difficult to save. The best thing for those in that category is to look for other avenues to earn more money.

ahiboilandgas:
The growing Nigeria Gdp is useless and audio it is not reflected in the populace....china Gdp grew and boom 500m Chinese are off poverty....and everwhere it china made products...boom Nigeria Gpd grew poverty ,kidnappings,unemployements jumps to 1000 percents ....The Gdp is growing in the families of political appointees and is driven by crude oil explorations and not real work

Our GDP grows mainly in naira ,with devaluation GDP goes down in dollars term.

ahiboilandgas:
really...we have been devaluing since 1980 ..

Devaluation will not solve our problems. We don't have to devalue before we diversify our revenue base.