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Investment › Re: MBA Investors Forum by pluto09(m): 6:51pm On May 10, 2020
ogwuche4u:
Only a fool says what he doesn't know. Where were you when they did their forex bootcamp in portharcourt? Be mindful of your claims cos if they find you and file a suit against you, I pray you have the money to get a lawyer.
Am so pained because some Nigerian youths still think forex is a scam. When are we going to break free of the shackles of white collar jobs? I pray for our youths.
I trade forex myself so I am not one of those youths you are referring to.
We know how forex works.
Investment › Re: MBA Investors Forum by pluto09(m): 5:26pm On May 10, 2020
philos:
I like your simplicity, and honesty. I wish I could have what it takes (financially) to get started with Forex Trading, or at least invest in those expert forex traders like MBA.
MBA is not an expert in forex trading.
In all probability, they are more of a ponzi than fx trading.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by pluto09(m): 6:43am On May 10, 2020
Investment › Re: Treasury Bills In Nigeria by pluto09(m): 4:51pm On May 07, 2020
Phyde:
Do you have any trusted person you can link us to, to avoid stories that touch huh
You don't need anybody contact to buy btc now.

You can buy directly from binance and luno,they are trusted exchange.
Once you registered and verified, you are good to go.
Investment › Re: Treasury Bills In Nigeria by pluto09(m): 6:12am On May 07, 2020
Godbpraised:
I do not advise anyone to buy united capital. The whole strategy of going to sort for funds at this time is suspicious. The fact that is unsecured hmmmm.
If one is satisfied with the returns, security is really not an issue.
United capital has been around as a listed entity on the Nigerian stock exchange for some time and one can always monitor the progress of the company with quarterly/annual financial reports.
Investment › Re: Treasury Bills In Nigeria by pluto09(m): 5:23am On May 06, 2020
MACROECONOMIC UPDATE as copied;



Key Takeaways from the Citizens Dialogue Session on Government Fiscal Policy Decisions in Response to the Fall in Oil Prices and the COVID-19 Pandemic
The Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning and the Department for Internal Development (DFID) held a citizen’s dialogue session (earlier today) on Nigeria’s response to the fall in oil prices and the COVID-19 pandemic. The panel was led by the Minister for Finance, Budget and National Planning, Mrs. Zainab Ahamed, who was ably supported by Prince Clem Agba (Minister of State, Budget and National Planning), Mr. Ben Akabueze (DG Budget Office of the Federation), and Lade Jaiyeola (CEO, Nigeria Economic Summit Group).

A. Below are some takeaways from the representatives of government
1. Government expects GDP to contract by 3.5% YoY in 2020
2. Oil earnings is now projected to decline by 90.0% in 2020
3. Estimated net oil & gas revenue available for Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) distribution is now forecasted 80.0% lower at N1.1 trillion (vs. N5.5 trillion previously), despite a N649 billion reduction in allowable fiscal deductions by NNPC for federally funded projects/expenditures. Specifically, projected PMS under-recovery has been reduced from N457 billion to zero
Oil production now projected at 1.7mbpd (vs. 2.18mbpd previously)
Oil prices expected to average $20 per barrel (vs. budget benchmark of $57 per barrel)
Average production cost of Nigerian crude has been revised downward to $28 per barrel from $33 per barrel (with implications for Petroleum Profit Tax
A severe outbreak of COVID-19 in Nigeria could magnify the impact of low oil price and weaker domestic crude production
4. Customs revenue is now projected at N1.2 trillion in 2020 (vs. N1.5 trillion previously)
5. Amount accruable to VAT pool account now forecasted at N2.0 trillion in 2020 (vs. N2.1 trillion previously)
6. Amount accruable to federation account now projected at N3.9 trillion (vs. N8.6 trillion previously)
7. Projected federal government receipt from federation account for 2020 is now put at N2.4 trillion (compared to N4.8 trillion previously)
8. States and local governments are now likely to obtain N2.1 trillion and N1.5 trillion, apiece, from FAAC (compared to N3.3 trillion and N2.5 trillion, respectively, in previous estimates)
9. Projected N5.6 trillion budget deficit to be financed through privatization proceeds (N126 billion), drawdowns from FGN Special Accounts (c.N260 billion), bilateral/multilateral drawdowns (N387 billion), and new borrowings (N4.6 trillion)
10. Debt service pressure to be eased by significant moratoriums on new loans (IMF’s RFI of $3.4 billion comes with 3 years moratorium) and expected deferrals of current debt service obligations until macro conditions improve
11. As part of measures to alleviate the impact of COVID-19, the government has set up an Economic Sustainability Committee to, among others, assess systemic vulnerabilities and develop programs that would make the expected recession short-lived and ensure sustainable long-term growth
12. Measures are underway to strengthen agricultural value-chain with strategic focus on land acquisition, road networks, and funding. Government also plans to offtake agro-products when market conditions are unfavourable
13. Government is looking at funding supports for the aviation sector
14. The president is likely to decide on land border closures after the current health crisis. Negotiations with neighboring countries have been smooth
15. Although similar challenges were faced in 2016, Nigeria currently has significantly lower fiscal buffers. In view of the challenges, government has approved the integrated policy framework recommended by the CMC and adjustments to the 2020 budget
16. The budget office is finalizing a revised 2020-2022 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Strategy Paper (MTEF/FSP) as well as an amendment to the 2020 Appropriation act

B. According to Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG)
Nigeria needs N10.1 trillion worth of interventions but current intervention capacity stands at N4.5 trillion
The implied funding gap of N5.6 trillion is likely to be covered by
Medium to long term domestic borrowing
External borrowings (possibly from World Bank, IMF, IFC, AFDB)
Quantitative easing
Total announced stimulation (FG, CBN, e’tal) currently stands at N4.5 trillion or 3.1% of GDP (vs. 10.0% of GDP in South Africa)
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by pluto09(m): 5:20am On May 06, 2020
MACROECONOMIC UPDATE as copied;


Key Takeaways from the Citizens Dialogue Session on Government Fiscal Policy Decisions in Response to the Fall in Oil Prices and the COVID-19 Pandemic
The Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning and the Department for Internal Development (DFID) held a citizen’s dialogue session (earlier today) on Nigeria’s response to the fall in oil prices and the COVID-19 pandemic. The panel was led by the Minister for Finance, Budget and National Planning, Mrs. Zainab Ahamed, who was ably supported by Prince Clem Agba (Minister of State, Budget and National Planning), Mr. Ben Akabueze (DG Budget Office of the Federation), and Lade Jaiyeola (CEO, Nigeria Economic Summit Group).

A. Below are some takeaways from the representatives of government
1. Government expects GDP to contract by 3.5% YoY in 2020
2. Oil earnings is now projected to decline by 90.0% in 2020
3. Estimated net oil & gas revenue available for Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) distribution is now forecasted 80.0% lower at N1.1 trillion (vs. N5.5 trillion previously), despite a N649 billion reduction in allowable fiscal deductions by NNPC for federally funded projects/expenditures. Specifically, projected PMS under-recovery has been reduced from N457 billion to zero
Oil production now projected at 1.7mbpd (vs. 2.18mbpd previously)
Oil prices expected to average $20 per barrel (vs. budget benchmark of $57 per barrel)
Average production cost of Nigerian crude has been revised downward to $28 per barrel from $33 per barrel (with implications for Petroleum Profit Tax
A severe outbreak of COVID-19 in Nigeria could magnify the impact of low oil price and weaker domestic crude production
4. Customs revenue is now projected at N1.2 trillion in 2020 (vs. N1.5 trillion previously)
5. Amount accruable to VAT pool account now forecasted at N2.0 trillion in 2020 (vs. N2.1 trillion previously)
6. Amount accruable to federation account now projected at N3.9 trillion (vs. N8.6 trillion previously)
7. Projected federal government receipt from federation account for 2020 is now put at N2.4 trillion (compared to N4.8 trillion previously)
8. States and local governments are now likely to obtain N2.1 trillion and N1.5 trillion, apiece, from FAAC (compared to N3.3 trillion and N2.5 trillion, respectively, in previous estimates)
9. Projected N5.6 trillion budget deficit to be financed through privatization proceeds (N126 billion), drawdowns from FGN Special Accounts (c.N260 billion), bilateral/multilateral drawdowns (N387 billion), and new borrowings (N4.6 trillion)
10. Debt service pressure to be eased by significant moratoriums on new loans (IMF’s RFI of $3.4 billion comes with 3 years moratorium) and expected deferrals of current debt service obligations until macro conditions improve
11. As part of measures to alleviate the impact of COVID-19, the government has set up an Economic Sustainability Committee to, among others, assess systemic vulnerabilities and develop programs that would make the expected recession short-lived and ensure sustainable long-term growth
12. Measures are underway to strengthen agricultural value-chain with strategic focus on land acquisition, road networks, and funding. Government also plans to offtake agro-products when market conditions are unfavourable
13. Government is looking at funding supports for the aviation sector
14. The president is likely to decide on land border closures after the current health crisis. Negotiations with neighboring countries have been smooth
15. Although similar challenges were faced in 2016, Nigeria currently has significantly lower fiscal buffers. In view of the challenges, government has approved the integrated policy framework recommended by the CMC and adjustments to the 2020 budget
16. The budget office is finalizing a revised 2020-2022 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Strategy Paper (MTEF/FSP) as well as an amendment to the 2020 Appropriation act

B. According to Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG)
Nigeria needs N10.1 trillion worth of interventions but current intervention capacity stands at N4.5 trillion
The implied funding gap of N5.6 trillion is likely to be covered by
Medium to long term domestic borrowing
External borrowings (possibly from World Bank, IMF, IFC, AFDB)
Quantitative easing
Total announced stimulation (FG, CBN, e’tal) currently stands at N4.5 trillion or 3.1% of GDP (vs. 10.0% of GDP in South Africa)
Investment › Re: Treasury Bills In Nigeria by pluto09(m): 6:33pm On May 03, 2020
zamirikpo:
Govt hospitals have the best medical practioners in the country plus equipment

Argue with the ancestors.
Government hospitals may have the best medical practioners in the country but the level of commitment is poor just like we have in all public institutions in the country.
Investment › Re: Treasury Bills In Nigeria by pluto09(m): 6:35am On May 03, 2020
Theconglomerate:
Your write up is saying naira will weaken and the CBN has just reversed its intervention policies,except of course for large fluctuations.
So then it's possible 380 will become the official exchange rate,and 450 is a really big deviation from 380,which makes it intervenable come monday.
Wheew!well,monday will tell...
There is a difference between the official rate and the parallel market rate.
What CBN will control is the official rate. Most of us don't buy or sell dollars at the official rate. If the official rate is managed well by CBN, there will be a small difference between the two rates otherwise you have a wide gap like the one we experience last week.
Investment › Re: Treasury Bills In Nigeria by pluto09(m): 8:37pm On May 02, 2020
Investment › Re: Treasury Bills In Nigeria by pluto09(m): 8:36pm On May 02, 2020
Raalsalghul:
Why would you advise someone not to buy?

I've been thinking of converting recent savings to dollars.
One can always buy but at reasonable price.
Investment › Re: Treasury Bills In Nigeria by pluto09(m): 3:10pm On May 02, 2020
Theconglomerate:
Oh trust me I'm not buying.
There are other reasons why I asked. smiley
grin grin
Investment › Re: Treasury Bills In Nigeria by pluto09(m): 2:57pm On May 02, 2020
Theconglomerate:
Well,it looks like you are right.
Let's be observant sha.
Thanks,sharp analysis.
I appreciate.
I don't advise people to buy at any price o.
Those who understand the game bought at 360 and sold from 430. They are waiting for another opportunity to get in.
Investment › Re: Treasury Bills In Nigeria by pluto09(m): 2:26pm On May 02, 2020
Theconglomerate:
I agree with your theory but then,how do you explain the $100m pumped in mid this week?
Any ideas?
Also,what makes you think they can't sacrifice another 3-4 billion dollars from the reserve which will last throughout this year till the eventual rebound of oil price?
That is the issue. $100m is far less than the demand.If they are really serious, they should do $300m, they were doing $300 to $400m before.
Investment › Re: Treasury Bills In Nigeria by pluto09(m): 2:07pm On May 02, 2020
Theconglomerate:
How do you know this?
Oil price and fx reserve.

In December last year,reserve was above $38b. The reserve is currently just above $33b.
We burnt more than $5b in four months. That is one of the reasons they stopped selling dollars to bdc but they will not tell us this.
The CBN was forced to do the last adjustment from 305 to 365 or there about because they are Short of dollars. The reprive we have got now is the $3.4b from IMF and I know IMF will not allow them to waste that one on defending the naira.

If oil price stays low for a long period another round of devaluation is inevitable.
Investment › Re: Treasury Bills In Nigeria by pluto09(m): 12:32pm On May 02, 2020
Grupo:
That's true. But do you think that the CBN can keep up with defending the naira considering the recent fall in oil price?
The CBN does not have what it takes to keep defending the naira at this period in time.
The rule is not to buy high.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by pluto09(m): 5:46am On May 02, 2020
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by pluto09(m): 9:15pm On Apr 29, 2020
RabbiDoracle:
Under the Rapid Facility. Many countries got it from IMF and World Banks.

I don't think there are conditions attached to that loan.
https://nairametrics.com/2020/04/29/imf-pressures-nigeria-to-fast-track-exchange-rate-unification/
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by pluto09(m): 7:32pm On Apr 25, 2020
ositadima1:
They returned 7.6b as interest income, where is this interest coming from? Please read the first sentence under the table

They also got interest expended of about 44b making net negative as seen below.

You can download the full statement here
http://www.dangotecement.com/investor-relations/financial-reports/
The result I referenced is the 2020 q1

And with the one you posted which is fy 2019 it was clearly stated that the interest income is from cash balance and not from securities.
The over 44b is money used in servicing the company debt.
With over 900b in retained earnings the interest on this should have been more than 7b if it was invested in securities.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by pluto09(m): 4:37pm On Apr 25, 2020
ositadima1:
There might be some reason for this,I would do same if selling bonds is cheaper. You know the retained earnings are mostly invested in other securities.

What if the bulk of the retained earnings is currently bringing in 12% interest and this new bonds are for like 8% interest?
There is nothing in DC financials to show that the company is investing the retained earnings in securities..
The latest result only showed that they generated a paltry 2.2b as finance income while they spent over 8b as interest expenses.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by pluto09(m): 6:16pm On Apr 24, 2020
emmanuelewumi:
Na wa, government is really broke. What is the essence of this during a lockdown and after forcing them to make huge donations towards the fight against Covid 19
I don't think it has anything to do with either the government is broke or not.
There is excess liquidity in the system which is not being channeled to productive use.
Our banks are used to making easy money with t-bills and government bond.

Is CBN doing the right thing? I sincerely dont know as that is really debatable.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by pluto09(m): 11:15am On Apr 24, 2020
onegentleguy:
That's NOT true.
Ur source may dispute the source of the write-up, but NOT the genuineness of the content.
The content as put out, is clearly not in doubt !!

Is it the part about Africa managing the curve a bit more and having a brighter chance of flattening it ahead of most countries in the western world?
...the WHO president confirmed this.
Our weather and body mechanism gives us an edge.
2 days ago, Ghana reopened its economy, recording just 9 deaths and 99% recovery rate !!

Is it about the part on " Discretionary Spending"
My dear even u will prioritize health and take it a bit more seriously after now(if u weren't doing that before)

Is it about the part of "Result of backlash against China"
My dear Japan, Germany, Sweden and the US already began that... Google is ur friend. wink cheesy grin
As I said, this will result to a possible strain on Globalization.

Is about...
I could go and on and on.
Again, take ur time to read thru that report again.

Perhaps the source of the report may not have come from the IMF(if that's ur assertion, then I agree)
But that does NOT take away from stating that all the input therein are FACTS !!
...u do not need a soothsayer to tell u that virtually everything that was written therein is TRUE !!

Regards
We should be careful not to take assumptions and insinuations as facts.
Some of the things mentioned in the report are assumptions and not facts..
For instance, there is no empirical evidence to show that our body mechanism and weather give us an edge in Africa,they are all assumptions.
What we know is that the virus arrived late in Africa and it will be too early to make any conclusion until we see the end of the pandemic. God help us.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by pluto09(m): 7:31am On Apr 24, 2020
meshpips:
Hi everyone,

here is a simple chart for ZENITH showing the bearish swing starting 10th February - 11th August, 2019.

The retracement ended at the 61.8% Fibonacci level and we expect price to extend to the 161.8% Fibonacci level on the downside.

This 161.8% level is at 9.3X (almost co-incident with the monthly time frame support at 9.44).

All the best everyone!
We can all relate with this one,though may not share the same sentiment.
Good work from you and I hope to see more of this grin
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by pluto09(m): 6:21am On Apr 23, 2020
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by pluto09(m): 6:15pm On Apr 22, 2020
As copied from my broker:


FBNH: Earnings impress but regulatory concerns linger
FBN Holdings Plc reported a 60.0% YoY growth in EPS to N0.64 in its unaudited Q1’20 result. Earnings support largely stemmed from elevated trading gains. We also note improvement in cost to income ratio (65.1% vs Q1’19: 67.7%), cost of risk (1.9% vs Q1’19: 2.7%) and NPL ratio (9.2% vs Dec. 19: 9.9%). Key regulatory ratios such as CAR (15.3%) and liquidity ratios (30.1%) remain, however, concerning

Highlights:
Net interest margins (NIM) weakened by 1.4ppts to 6.3%. A 20 bps moderation in funding cost was not enough to ease NIM pressure. Overall, net interest income slipped by 15.9% YoY

Non-interest income soared 88.9% YoY. Key drivers of non-interest income growth are N21.8 billion in trading gains (vs N1.3 billion in Q1’19) and a two-fold increase in dividend income to N4 billion. Also supporting non-interest income was the 6.8% YoY growth in net fees and commission income, largely driven by increases in LC-related fees (+18.0% YoY) and E-Banking fees (+9.7% YoY).

Operating expenses climbed 7.9% YoY. However, we note the improvement in efficiency as cost-to-income ratio moderated 2.6 ppts to 65.1% during the quarter. Cost of risk also slid lower to 1.9% from 2.7% in Q1’19, reflecting the 30.0% YoY fall in provision for loan losses.

Gross loans to customers rose 10.2% to N2.1 trillion. Asset quality, however, improved from 9.9% in December 2019 to 9.2% in March 2020.

All in, ROE improved to 15.3% versus 11.8% in Q1’19. On regulatory compliance, concerns abound as both CAR and liquidity ratio slipped towards border-line limits at 15.3% and 30.1% respectively.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by pluto09(m): 6:04pm On Apr 22, 2020
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by pluto09(m): 4:00pm On Apr 22, 2020
Mcy56:
This is a good result in my layman's understanding.
The prevailing situations in Q1 2019 was nothing to be compared with 2020. PAT is even slightly higher self. They tried.

But wait o, is there no more analysis on this thread again or the analysts are on sabbatical? huh
Abeg make Una come back biko.
A flat result does not mean bad. It simply underscores the point that the result is almost the same as the corresponding quarter or year.
GTB is a leading bank in Nigeria, so I will not expect them to suffer any contraction in numbers in q1
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by pluto09(m): 3:54pm On Apr 22, 2020
Homextras:
Bros, pls clap for them in this period... It is not easy out there... 2% increase...they tried, really tried...
Why should I clap for them?
I have my projections for companies of interest before results are released.
Gtb just came in as expected.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by pluto09(m): 3:10pm On Apr 22, 2020
Mcy56:
Why has nobody mention what's in GTB's Q1?
Make I go check anyway. smiley
Flat result, just as expected.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by pluto09(m): 10:30am On Apr 22, 2020
stcool:
If I enter a stock and it goes wrong...I own it
And when I exit I make it clear

Good to see you have changed into another monicker grin
There are merits in some of your posts but you should refrain from repeating yourself and be less assertive about your predictions.

This is not to say that some of the people who have castigated you here are not guilty of the same thing they are accusing you of.
I can bet you if someone keeps posting about how the market will go up and break out now ,they will not see any problem with that....that is called double standard.

Make your analysis and bear it in mind that anybody could be wrong cool
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by pluto09(m): 7:14am On Apr 22, 2020
RabbiDoracle:
Brent has broken down.

The government will need to learn the hard way.

They have been paying lip service to diversification.

There should be another devaluation in my opinion . Maybe to N500.
Our options are limited...
Now that we are begging IMF and world bank for money, I want to believe devaluation will be one of the conditions.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by pluto09(m): 10:36am On Apr 21, 2020
Pray those who have their hope on following Oracle to the promised land will not be heading to Golgotha cheesy grin

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