₦airaland Forum

easimoni:
Anybody notice Transcorp broke it's N4.00 support for 2 days in a row?

Also notice the 9 months for ins coys are coming out? Good stuff!

Transcorp - Yes, I was also curious and surprised that it dipped as much as 5% at some point today.

Insurance - I have seen Cornerstone which was good, Have you seen any other recent one, ?

Based on Q1 result Wema is definitely cheap.

if we bring in the mix of the PO could be a different story only if the stock goes on TS in the next few days.

But the real question is if you think Wema has already applied to go to the market, ? I believe the PO is possible again till at least January next year so they may not apply so early. If not, I don't see the price staying at 11 Naira.

If this stock does not go on TS, the price rise will be such that the offer from the PO may still be over 11 Naira.

easimoni:
Yup it's confirmed! FSDH report is in. Wema's 1Q is below

WEMA BANK PLC
3 months, June 2007
Turnover 9,287.00 5,698.00 62.99%
PBT 3,358.00 2,097.00 60.13%
Tax 503.75 419.51 20.08%
PAT 2,854.00 1,678.00 70.08%

Bam. Now the knowledge of pending TS is the beginning of wisdom.

@hispy99 - For Chellarams I have 120.4 Million

Zenith's Hybrid Offer

It means Zenith will be diluted by about 3.9 Billion shares.

This means the projected adjusted PE is around 22 with EPS  of around 2 Naira based on current earnings.

Based on offer price we are looking at projected adjusted PE of 19 but of course I will expect a higher PAT with the injection of funds. I can't wait to see the prospectus to see the projections.

Zenith is attractive to me even on the floor.

RoughCut:
Forward EPS 70k and wait for it PE Ratio =13.8 which is well below the sector average.

WEMA has pulled the rabbit out of the bag which sets them up nicely for the PO/IPO(not sure which one is it now)

I beg from where you extract these Wema results?

@walcolm

See this article. There is no provision for share buy back in Nigeria and SEC or CAMA are not planning to change things anytime soon.

http://allafrica.com/stories/200710260355.html

walcolm:
@wanajo

i don't agree with you that share buy back is not allowed in nigeria. where did you get that from?

share buy back is a standard financing practise all over the world. the fact that it is not yet being used regularly by companies in nigeria does not mean it is not allowed or illegal, it's almost like saying having diffrent classes of shares in a company is illegal

don't forget that the capital market in nigeria is still developing, GDR was not existing in nigeria until GTB blazed the trail. we don't trade shares futures and options etc yet in nigeria, so if somebody does it, will you say it is not allowed?

See this article. There is no provision for share buy back in Nigeria and SEC or CAMA are not planning to change things anytime soon.

http://allafrica.com/stories/200710260355.html

walcolm:
@wanajo

i don't agree with you that share buy back is not allowed in nigeria. where did you get that from?

share buy back is a standard financing practise all over the world. the fact that it is not yet being used regularly by companies in nigeria does not mean it is not allowed or illegal, it's almost like saying having diffrent classes of shares in a company is  illegal

don't forget that the capital market in nigeria is still developing, GDR was not existing in nigeria until GTB blazed the trail. we don't trade shares futures and options etc yet in nigeria, so if somebody does it, will you say it is not allowed?

The last time I checked share buy back is illegal in Nigeria. I was surprised to see this but that is the case except there is a recent change.

Share buy back has a major impact on the price of a stock. The market usually will normally respond with an increase in price of the stock. It is a boost for shareholders in the long term simply because there are less mouths to feed.

rasputinn:
Hi Guys,took a look @ oceanic bank's results and it looks attractive.D'you guys see it hitting 45 naira in three months time?Again I'll like to know if vitafoam is fertile ground

Can anyone share Oceanic's resuts.

Sweet_aura:
I hope this will interest those of you holding on to WEMA. I was at my Broker's today to subscribe for Japaul, while chatting with the GM, one of the officials came in to brief him about the day's trades. He mentioned how WEMA mopped 190M units of its shares just to douse its Monday's publication.

He said the Bank had earlier pumped in N4 billion in mopping the shares. He concluded that this strategy will definitely back fire when core investors discover their game.

I heard Dangote flour is HIGHLY over subscribed and its Oceanic registrars are working 24/7. Refund is likely.

A word is enough for the wise.

I hold wema and the news interests me but it will not influence me to sell. There are multiple reasons why Wema could be buying back shares if indeed they are doing this. Whatever the case I think they will release their interim results before going for PO and the result should not be bad or the PO is doomed.

I suspect 1.9 Billion Naira worth of Wema would not have been bought by "ordinary" investors today alone so yes, do some people know something?. I have shifted to hold mode. This is hypertensive but very interesting. That there was a net gain in the price today is nothing short of a miracle.

Ben0524:
To ALL GURU's,

1) Please can anyone tell me on how to Calculate and qualify for Private Placement, e.g i have 10, 000 Units of shares and they gave P.Placement of 1 for every 20 held.

2) In other to maximize profit, is it better to sell after a company has declare its Bonus and Dividend or before the declaration, because if you sell before the decleration you will not benefit from the Bonus and Dividend.

N.B:- PLS, Can someone shed more light on it for me.
To All GURU's in the HOUSE.

1. You get 1 share for every 20 you have so you should divide your holdings by 20 and multiply by 1 = 500 units.
If it was 20 units for every 2 you own, you would have divided by 2 and then multiplied by 20 = 100,000 units.

2. Technically I beieve it does not really matter because the price of the stock will be marked down based on the bonus and dividend declared. So the value of the bonus and the dividend will be subtracted from the price of the stock after the register is closed.
However, some prefer to sell after the mark down so they can get some "cash" from the dividends. Some also believe that the stock price may rise slightly after the mark down. There is no proof of this as far as I can tell. In some cases you get best value selling just before mark down as we saw I think in the case of First Bank and Zenith.

ECOBANK NIGERIA PLC

UNAUDITED Q-3 RESULTS FOR THE PERIOD ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2007
PERIOD 2007 2006 ABSOLUTE CHANGE %CHANGE
GROSS EARNINGS (N'b) 22.90 11.60 11.30 97.4%
PBT (N'm) 7.50 4.00 3.50 87.5%
TAXATION (N'm) 2.40 1.30 1.10 84.6%
PAT (N'm) 5.10 2.70 2.40 88.9%
* Means Decrease & * Means Increase
Net Profit Margin 22.27% 23.28% -1.0%

Projected PE remains around 25.5.

KDK:
Thanks guys, I know about the technical suspension stuff. I was hoping it was not because . . . . Neways, what caused the sudden fall in NAHCO shares between May 15 and May 16th?

NAHCO was marked down for bonus and dividends. I think the bonus was 3 for 2.

wanaj0:
That to me is a stock to buy!!! Being shouting about it since. Placed order with my broker for ages, but no show. Even sent someone on Nairaland to strike a deal with one of the staff who own shares there still no luck! So what can I do?

They are set to do a RIGHTS and after that a PO. When you see things lines up like that, expect a windfall even if it is only for the short/medium term.

If you get to buy, just give me 10 units that will qualify me for the right. Will take it up from there.

Anyone watching the free fall of IBTC

Will 10 units be sufficient to qualify for substantial rights? I thought allocation will be proportional to holding or is this in anticipation of investors that don't take up their rights?

bibiking1:
what do they deal on?
how do their fundamentals spell out?

will do some check up on them anyway

thanks Pumpin

They are into courier and cargo services.

The fundamentals are bam.

One other thing I found out about them.  Akintunde Asalu is on the board which to me is a good thing.

http://tranex-ng.com/abouttranex_managers.htm

Gidij:
Oceanic, Oceanic, Who knows what is killing their shares? From =N= 34 last week to =N= 28 this week. Please help I have a nest full of eggs there.

Share certificates are being expected around this time for those that bought during the last PO for Oceanic. Due to the oversubscription which was absorbed this is a heavy dilution of shares and the anticipation could be bringing down the prices.

These investors have a nice profit margin even at current prices. In today's bear market this will be considered too good to pass by. Many will sell and this will pull the price downwards.

However note that Oceanic is expected to announce robust results for the last fiscal year which is rumoured to be well ahead of expectations. Which will have more weight? We have to wait to see. 

Though I stay on the side of the dilution having more weight, it does not make much sense to sell before the results are released except you have insider info. If you have, share with me jare

Enough distraction by Wema. The journey continues jare,

I'm battling with another result released today,

---
TRANS NATIONWIDE EXPRESS PLC

UNAUDITED Q-1 RESULTS FOR THE PERIOD ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2007

PERIOD 2007 2006 ABSOLUTE CHANGE %CHANGE
TURNOVER (N'm) 287.16 209.08 78.08 37.3%
PBT (N'm) 53.73 34.79 18.95 54.5%
TAXATION (N'm) 9.50 6.50 3.00 46.2%
PAT (N'm) 44.23 28.29 15.95 56.4%
* Means Decrease & * Means Increase
Net Profit Margin 15.40% 13.53% 1.9%

Also looked for some history.

*TRANS-NATIONWIDE EXPRESS PLC:

Unaudited results for the third quarter ended 30th September 2006 show Turnover of N209.1 million, as against N119.63 million in the comparable period of 2005. Profit after tax stood at N28.3 million compared with N15.1 million in 2005.*
----

This is a very illiquid stock from my analysis. Does anyone know the outstanding shares in any case?

This company may be able to realize a FY PAT of 180 Million. The stock is trading at 78 Kobo.

I don't even want to print the numbers here,

The figure I have for outstanding shares is 132,546,509. Am I missing something here.

Iwerebor:
Hey Yodi
Howdy?
I got to know about stocks in the middle of this year. I was at a crossroad then. I had a million Nigerian Naira in hand but zero idea on what to do with it in terms of growing it. I got really scared to see the influence of money on a man's behavior. It is as if there is a voice that screams one deaf to buy stuff. If you have such money, you won't be eating for instance because you are hungry, you would want to eat for pleasure, the taste. I hope you know the cost of that on your health.

This is the situation that led me to start asking people how money is made with money. Many people didn't know. I got so fed up searching and asking that NOSPECTO and co seemed like a sanctuary but I am a Christian. I didn't like the fact that many questions didn't have an answer as to the goings on in there. The place had too many shadows.

I will save you so much detail by fast forwarding to when I got in here.NAIRALAND. There is something about a name.
Hey, I can't finish this story tonight, so I will hit the nail dead on the head.
I have learnt some lessons: keep stuff simple. Never argue with sense. Never shout it down.
Don't gamble. Ever! don't play roulette, certainly not with money.
Every nation has a founding father.
Every building has a foundation.
Every market has it's fundamentals
Every company does.
If you seek to build wealth on a company without one
What will happen when the wind comes howling, or the storm rages?
Same thing that happens to a pack of cards.
Transcorp fell and fell and fell, Where it stopped or hit ground is it's fundamental.
That's really where the tower hould have sprouted from not in the fluffy clouds.
Sorry Yodi, don't mean any insensitivity

I think I now have a better understanding if 1 million naira can influence your behaviour.

If the fact that you are a christian is the only thing that turned you away from NOSPECTO then you must be one smart investor.

@Yodiyokun - Thank you for the response.

If investments are based only on trailing PE one will not do very well in any market.

The abiity to see a company that will move from trailing PE of 40 to 10 is the wisdom in investing.

@ wanaj0, easimoni thanks.

So we are dealing with a trailing PE of around 40 (admiting the tax credit) or PE of around 54 (without the tax credit).

The bank needs to release a half year PAT of 4 Billion Naira or above for projected PE to become 10.2 or even less at 8 Naira. With a net operating income of over 19 Billion Naira last FY declaring half year PAT of 4 Billion this half year should not be such an uphill task.

I am keeping my eyes open on Wema. I'm selling what I have left now (if I can but not below 8 Naira) but I'm not going to give up now.

Please anyone with the details of the results? Is there anything that can still chop into the profit? If they have completely cleaned their books then I smell something good.

pangolo:
Hello Guys,
VERY IMPORTANT QUESTION
I would like to know if anyone has heard about a private placement by CHAMS ( electronic card switch company). Please forward any info here,
Thanks!!

I read it is in the pipeline,

http://www.proshareng.com/myproshare/portal_news.php?id=3074

Is 9.2B or 10.2B (or neither) correct for the number of outstanding WEMA shares?

RoughCut:
Obvoiusly they did not have anybody advising them on strategy and if they are planning to come to the market they know what they need to do and if they can't show us anything to prove they know what they are doing they might as well put up the bank for sale.

It is speculation though until i see the breakdwon i think the N8.1B write-down of their assets would have been sustained mainly for the goodwill in acquiring the assets of National bank remember that they would had to assume the assets and liabilities of National bank which they would not have been able to quantify reasonably since they did not audit the accounts of National bank and the rest would go on bad and doubtful and non-performing loans which i understand is one of the things that caused a lot of 'aggro'

Going forward short-term you are right WEMA bank is on the racks

I'd be surprised if they won't know the impact of releasling only the FY results.

For me, if they will release a good result say in 2 weeks if you will, then this provides the opportunity for some insiders that sold at 11 Naira last week to buy at 7-8 Naira during this glut and start smiling in 2 weeks time

whitelexi:
Crusader looks attractive at N4.22 now, i've already issued my order. I just realized i've exceeded 500k units of Mbenefits alone! I was just ordering more and more and now i feel like i have too many.

I can relieve you of the burden, just dash me small

Likewise insurance companies,

Wema dropped a bomb, It is better to wait for the price to drop, I'd like to see the detailed results though, To see if writing off bad loans or goodwill had a major impact, whatever the case, the market will not be kind to the stock for now, I've still got some, but of course I won't hold on to it.

Who has seen Wema bank's results? I heard that it was published today in the Punch newspapers on page 71. If anyone can summarize here,

Tmoni:
that means with amixture of carefull and risky investments ,
we shld be able to gain at least 40%,

because i want to do a portfolio management and also take a loan on existing securities to open a trading acct,
interest rates of about 17 -18%,
hv to make at least 36% and above for it to be a fruitfull venture,

PLS, WHO HAS AN IDEA ON A PRIVATE PLACEMENT BY ETB
cheers

ETB
I was told in confidence that ETB private placement will start in November with minimum subscription of 5 Million Naira.

I like to see action so I am waiting to validate this though I don't doubt my source so much.

If it starts, I believe I will know and I will share any info if someone has not done so yet.

Did we miss something, ? 

Avon Crowncaps & Containers Plc Turnover PBT TAX PAT
=N='000 =N='000 =N='000 =N='000
31-Mar-07 12 Mths      6,178,000        275,558      102,917          172,641 
31-Mar-06 12 Mths      6,155,000        225,444        67,229          158,215 
    0.4% 22.2%   9.1%

Dividend of 10 kobo and 1 for 5 bonus issue. Closure date Nov 6-9.

Effective basic PE of around 12 when this result was released on the 17th October!!

It has gained 47% in 8 days although volumes have been low in the region of 300K units daily until last Wednesday when it started doing over 1 million units. This is possibly due to profit taking now that the PE is approaching 20. Others will still hang on though because the register does not close till Nov 6-9.

The company had been gaining close to 5% daily but it never featured in the list of top movers of some analysts that use % gain as basis.For instance it gained 4.86% on Friday but did not show up in top gainers list for Meristem or Punch based on % change. Lower gainers were included.

Naijadr:
go COSTAIN!!! Yes, I picked up a big amt last week at N19 and I had issued another purchase on Tuesday but not sure if they got it for me, I pray they did, cause if so then I see manna! Thank you God
I'm buying into PO as well in as much as I don't like them, can't beat the 30% discount! So thats N10 abi?

You now have to say your daily prayers that the cut-off date to qualify for the rights issue will extend to this week and even beyond. 

Interesting thing I found.

Japaul went on TS on July 10th but to qualify for rights issue you must be on the register on July 6th which means you must have bought latest on July 3rd which is 7 days before the TS.

On the other hand Fidelity went on TS on 27th July but accommodated shareholders on the books as at 20th August for the rights issue. This is over 3 weeks after the TS.

So who knows, even if one buys Costain next week, one may still qualify for rights issue.  Afterall the prospectus is not yet out. Anyone with this scoop?

The 30% is too sweet for man to pass by o,

Naijadr:
I told my friends about COSTAIN since Aug esp folks no wan listen, and thought I was crazy for it taking 50% of my portfolio and straight mad when I started aiming for 75%.
I will buy at the N10 price for rights offer, but even the N13 is awesome for those interested. I will also be selling during the bullish run post release of the cap
I knew in Aug/sep speculation was that this would happen in Nov, but then wasnt sure if they'd wait till Dec

Why you tell only your friends? We nko, ? We offend you?

trustboy:
To the experts. I bought 2450 units of Costain during the first week of October. Am i likely to qualify for the rights issue?

You will have to wait for the prospectus. Many companies push the cut-off date far back but then some companies accommodate investors even beyond the date of TS. An example is Fidelity.

See my post below. (I am editing this post after stumbling on the situation with Fidelity). Do not despair