₦airaland Forum

Northeastern:
Oil futures looking at a massive gap down; the postponement of the OPEC/Russia meeting from tomorrow to Thursday must have caused it.

This week should see a huge gain if that meeting results in a cut of at least 10m barrels.

. Oga NorthEastern. Im quite sceptical of dis move (cut) on oil price. 1st d probability of such cut without shale contributing to it is quite low. 2nd Shale contribution to the cut wld be limited if not totally hampered by its market structure. 3rd even if the cut materialise it wld only address d supply side while d problem with the demand side (coronavirus induced worldwide economic slowdown) persist. However all said i sincerely pray i am proven wrong for d sake myself and dis country

TGIF

Concert version


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qk2YLttXwGE

there might be cut to production (oil) truely but believe the 10 -15m barrel being touted by Trump at your own risk

Plus even if there is going to be any amount of cut we are still a long way away from it (at best 3- 4 weeks away),

The earliest cut that could impact oil market wld be as a consequence of some recent rig idling by shale and not a cut by Opec+ ( if at all possible, Opec+ is still some weeks away )


cc:Oracle ; OGG

onegentleguy:
Looks like what now remains to settling the 'oil war' is Saudi Arabia.
The US and Russia seem to have started a fresh romance towards an agreement.
Russia state owned oil firm Rosneft has just announced a deal to sell off its 100% stake in Venezuela in all 5 JVs plus its oil-field services companies, commercial and trading operations, on the same day that the President of both countries(Trump and Putin) had a phone chat ealier.

https://www.neweurope.eu/article/rosneft-sells-its-venezuelan-assets/
https://tass.com/economy/1137667

For emphasis; The matter about Rosneft was at the center of issues which lead to a series of sanction on Russia by the US.
Maybe Washington is now closer to removing sanctions on Moscow.

The Saudis must have to bend. ...they will.
As I stated here in the past, they will even feel more heat than the US and Russia.(see link to post; https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/5421#87434422)

Prior to this time, the Saudi economy has been deteriorating with several growth indices dealt a serious blow. Forget the low extraction cost. They will feel serious heat... Impact will be huge(the Nos are there to prove this)
No wonder they are now planning to sell a stake in their pipeline business to help shore up capital given the huge deficit that'll come with the current oil price slump.(the country already suffered an over 8% shortfall in GDP per capita in 2019)
Now they need to settle some massive payment, and they are strapped of cash.
https://www.pulse.ng/bi/finance/saudi-aramco-needs-cash-with-oil-prices-at-a-17-year-low-and-now-it-may-reportedly/5k7l3c5

The Saudis will feel serious heat !!
They must agree...

Some folks will make a kill from oil price. ...correction will likely be v-shaped and speedy.

Script still playing out just fine...

cc: @RabbiDoracle @robobo

. Chief the script play has finished na interlude we dey now. When the next play go start i dont know but what i know is that interlude by its nature is short

RabbiDoracle:
It looks highly likely to gain so.

And the reversal looks strong too.

What will push it, I do not know. But I am seeing it.

Only extraordinary News can e.g

Oil price recovery from news MBS/Putin/ Shale cooperation to cut output

FG / MPC (Naira fully floated / oil downstream full deregulation)

Sudden discovery of a drug/ vaccine for corona

RabbiDoracle:
Even the directors need the cash pass us. They need to increase their stakes before the FPIs come back.

ur head too correct

that was d reason Zenith nearly went on full bid (at this precarious time) the day the dividend was paid

onegentleguy:
...and what is this thing am hearing about AFPRUD accepting to pay the initially proposed 2019 YE final dividend of 70k but now swapping it as an interim payment in line with part XVIII section 379, part 1 and 2 of the CAMA(company & allied matters act), 2004.

Are there brokers or NSE stafers here that can help interpret this pls?
...I've never really followed up on that CAMA guideline.

It is well.

Might be becos it is being paid without an AGM, which is how Interin dividend are paid

if that is done, the net effect is only semantic as same wld be ratified whenever the AGM can hold

they shld be commended for being proactive/ creative instead of using the excuse of the no AGM not to pay d dividendor postpone same

RabbiDoracle:
Maximum fear.

This market looks like it could reverse after today. I hope I am wrong today.

Strong positive divergence.

My Oga

i doubt if technical still functional as per NSE at this time (all indicators seems to have broken down because of the hysteria going on)

Only a drastic positive news (mayb from MPC) cld make d divergent right

remember ours is not scripted (unlike yonda own) we are only but a corollary effect of d scripted

RabbiDoracle:
My point is Zenith at 10.85 (last low) has not been seen again. Until that happens, then I will know that there is a possibility of a lower low.

It closed 11.85 on Friday. I will wait to see if it can be offered at 10.70 today (full offer).

ok clearer. I doubt that though, cos while things are still bad and seemingly getting worse, however unlike during the first panic, the outlook (mid term) seems clearer when compared to the first panic. Thanks

RabbiDoracle:
I don't think he is causing panic. Probably he is looking at the worst case scenarios.

Like in the country where I live, schools and businesses have been closed, embassies closed, banks work like half day. There is a limit to gatherings.

Some businesses are regarded as essential and must open. Pharmacies, supermarkets, banks, fuel stations. Only non-essential businesses could be told to close.

Once this start to happen all over Nigeria, expect a hit on Q2 2020 data in all companies.

Advice : separate investment money from upkeep money. Everyone should have emergency fund they can tap into for upkeep.

[b]The last 2 weeks low in banks is yet to be seen again. [/b]People should stick to buying low. Don't chase price. I love panic sellers.

Chief meaning repeat/reset?

onegentleguy:
Feelers are that near term coy AGM' may no longer hold as scheduled, given the recent spate of orders from the FG and several state gov't to restrict movement and large gatherings as a precautionary measure against covid-19.
...infact the likelihood that most AGM' shall be postponed is now near 1.

Pls do well to be guided accordingly.

cc @ robobo

Thank you at least one can plan accordingly instead of no news on d thing since

onegentleguy:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-20/nigerian-central-bank-starts-uniform-exchange-rate-for-naira

"Nigeria’s central bank will migrate to a single exchange rate for the naira by collapsing the multiple exchange rate policy that determined the value for the local currency, people with direct knowledge of the matter said.
...the West African nation will merge the official rate, the rate for importers and exporters and rate for foreign-exchange bureaus, among others, according to the people who asked not to be identified because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the matter."

...things are beginning to get really interesting !!

cc @ RabbiDoracle, @robobo

it cld b a major game changer if they go all d way (convergence of all fx windows) though d impact might be delayed for a
while because d FPI might tarry a little to see hw dey intend to play d game just like when dey introduce I & E window and d impact wasnt felt in d market (NSE) for sme few weeks after its introduction

RabbiDoracle:
So they are devaluing it for FPIs?

This could be seen as a Sell for some FPIs because they will be wondering how many rates the country will have : CBN official rate, NAFEX rate, black market rates, FPI rate. Do we still have interbank rates or it is now at par with NAFEX rate?

you read my mind perfectly

pus some FPI wld even see it as tokenistic and an opportunity to quickly bail out before a major one is done

Recall that during the 2014/ 2016 d peg was first moved to from 150 / 160 to 190/200 before some few months / abta year later the big move of 200 to 350 was done

onegentleguy:
AGM' may likely hold. ...but with high safety measures in place.

https://punchng.com/nse-advises-firms-to-adopt-safety-measures-for-agm/

Understandably, most folks may not wish to attend as the "stay at home" talk gathers more momentum.
That said, as long as an AGM holds, there'll be approval for dividend distribution no matter the No of persons(shareholders) that attend it.
Voting will be done with any available attendees, even if its just 20 !!
And those who stayed back at home will give their E-approval.(who doesn't like free money)

ok boss my mind don dey at rest now

cos nothing must happen to ANY EXPECTED CASHFLOW at this kind of time

My people nobody is talking about how this COVID 19 go take affect AGM oooo and ultimately dividend payment because i think without AGM legally dividend cannot be paid particulalry for thos AGM coming up within d next 2 weeks

thebargainhunte:
You na senior man with pot belle. Na to dey follow u o.
The bolded no make sense o. Recession go knack the country akpako. We go dey mop zenith at that price dey smile

Oracle your food done ready

Brent finally clocks 27

I pray it turns back from here odawise na to thy tent o isreal

Agbalowomeri:
Took my 25% dividend from Zenith today


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NlyzO7dJ0YY

Baba oil dey ur head

went our of dose i got during d panic also

outlook looking glimmer

oil down to sub 30 with no news in sight for lifting it

now new 5 cases of covid 19 confirmed by FG (only God knows how many are yet to be confirmed

when short term outlook gets better i wld be back (it was getting beta before with oil seemingly stabilised at 35 but with this current tanking to 27 -28 i cannot come and kill mysef) or if dir is any overreaction liek we had before

thesilentone:
It opens at my end

Done now

appr8

rebekah2011:
Total asset 1872231
Total liabilities 1619889
Net asset 252342

Net asset per share N8.63

what is net asset per share for the potential acquirer (zenith)

if there is going to be any form of share exchange. it wld only be fair enough to compare / exchange like with like (i.e. NAV for both)

thesilentone:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/29295_UNION_BANK_NIG.PLC._FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_MARCH_2020.pdf

is NSE site down??

the thing no dey open ooo

thesilentone:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/29295_UNION_BANK_NIG.PLC._FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_MARCH_2020.pdf

Thanks Chief

Appr8

Hello All

Someone shld please bless me with UBN last audited result

RabbiDoracle:
The world isn't ending.

Instead of make the world grind to a halt, Trump go find trouble. Either NK or IR.

My Oga i know say d world no go end if the thing no hold

na the kind of maneuavering wey go happen to hold the thing they fear me (i.e. a repudiation of market economy by direct tampering with market and not through policy options)

because above wld mean that the very essence on which the foundation of the 20th /21st century economy is based is a mirage

RabbiDoracle:
I don relocate go Nnewi o.

My Oga na d one wey dey make shit be that

if all measure no hold, that one means Jungle don mature

na to dey chop ourself remian be dat

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

i dont even want to think about it

mendes911:
Whoever named you Oracle be see road. Try and maintain this your juju man. Agba's and his shrine used to be as effective as this, I guess he ate alone and forgot to offer live chickens to his "gods".

No. na d forbidden fruit Agba eat that is why d signal from his shrine his fluctuating

mendes911:
Brent below $30...

Very scary. Emefiele will be shitting in his pants now.

LOL.

Baba no be Emefiele alone

my self don dey shit for pant oooo

in short i dey find flagyl i neva see to stop the shit

my own shit is coming from the fact that Fed Bazooka no even hold d market at all

Mcy56:
Pls speak newbie's language so we can know whats up sir. Which one is second base ooo?

Oracle was looking at two indicators (i.e. DJIA at 27000 and WTI at $27) as a confirmation signal on his outlook being right

the first happened last week and teh second is about to happen this week

Godisfaithful:
Someone is betting WTI @$20 lol

Haaaa Oga na Armageddon be dat ooooooooooooooo

Oga Oracle second base seems to be coming

WTI at 29

Marlianvestor:
Whether is liquidity or insolvency issue, the uncertainty is underpinning factor of either, anyway! Insolvency issue - I was referring to - is more to do with the companies/businesses adversely affected cash-wise by this one-off exceptional non-business issue.... My point, exactly! And once the mkts are able to assess this uncertainty, mkts would naturally rebound....

My Oga it is well

My prayer is that in the absence of a vaccine / drug soon (30-60 days) at the least the first mover nations )(china / south korea) should not have as resurgent as they wound down (new cases in both places had subsided considerably) so that at the least the cycle of the pandemic as it affect a certain location cld be ascertained (along with the steps taken to bring the pandemic down in these places)

if above cld come to be true it wld bring some element of certainty (cycle wise) to the table and help calm the markets

Marlianvestor:
That was a scary and massive move by Fed, reasons for the scary reaction of the mkts. Besides, it is not quite a liquidity issue, folks have been harping about (cos the mkt was awash with stupendous liquidity pre Convid-19) but more of an insolvency issue....

i dont think its a insolvency issue either

is the world going to end if the markets froze for 30 days

i dont think so. yes some permanent damage wld be done but on comparative basis to the whole, the damage wld be quite negligible

me think it is the uncertainty (not knowing when this cld possible end or be contained) this is really spooking the market. once this (end/ containment) cld be ascertained calm and then growth wld resume