₦airaland Forum

Agbalowomeri:
My eyes still dirty my brother
Wetin I see sef

Oga Mendes you no well at all

with the kindof Tyson Fury punch wey Agba dey recieve for NSE you still expect am to see properly

No be double bottom him see na double breasted button


lollllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

Agbalowomeri:
The next support is home

Agba i beg no kill meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee ooooooooooooooooooooooooo


Home support indeed lolllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

mendes911:
They always start with restrictions before the final devaluation.

Banks can't sell FX to you and you can't transfer international what you deposited yourself.

Policy somersault in Nigeria. Counter productive.

boss i dont think this is true " Banks can't sell FX to you"

but this is true "can't transfer international what you deposited yourself"


However for the one that is true i dont think the major aim was for restriction of USD, the aim realy was curb laundering

But the timing (when reserve are falling) is totally wrong plus the fact that CBN is overeaching itself by policing the laundering and not leaving same to EFCC. Hence i somehow agree that the policy might be reversed.

The FPI not get joy at all. the are soulless and play without emotions

Agbalowomeri:
It appears some dollar restrictions on the horizon

There is high probability this is what is driving the market

not with the rumour on the street (on FCY deposit) that the CBN had to quickly (on a non working day i.e. Sunday) dispel (via a non traditional media tool for a regulator i.e. twitter).

That shows the desperacy of the regulator (CBN) and it seems the FPI are rather buying the rumour than the CBN explanation.

if u add above to the BDC end also being strained (went as low as 367.5 during last week) then u cant really blame the FPI for believing the rumour

The major option the CBN can use to counter the rumour is apparently not available to it (i.e. to flood the market with USD) due to shrinking reserve.

As it is the FI (NSE) space run might continue until the CBN can CONVINCINGLY assuage the market (FPI) that devaluation is not on the table (at least for now)


N.B. Personally im convince that devaluation is not on the table (at least short term - 30 - 90 days) but my opinion does not count plus the FPI that are not convinced surely see more than me cos they are institutionally, though they are also in MOST CASES hysterical and i think this is one of such occasion.

Marlianvestor:
The FPIs are just looking for guarantees re. their carry trade activities incl. the sustainability of their OMO bills participation) and Meffy has given them a longer 5 year FX forwards contract to appease them. With this, just watch out for the rising yield in the FGN bonds (thought very low now) and that to me, is the headwind for the stock markets, not imminent devaluation.... Once the yield is back in double digit, wahala dey for stock mkts!

i dont think d rate wld be back in double digit (cos d old regime of double digit was clearly not sustainable) although all said the current regime of low single digits is also not sustainable. u can look at eurobond for guidance but me think mid -- long term it wld be back on in upper single digit which shld not be too bad for the bourse. However Egypt cld be a spoiler here cos they are d direct competitor for that sphere and how they play determine how Meffy wld play except he has Oil in his wind.

The known Unknown is Global as per the Recession Onifa was trying to call attention to and that is my major fear because it is increasingly looking as the last & only remaining card that cld help stop the disruptor in chief. Hw far capitalism is willing to play that card is what i cant say at today

TLAX:
Pubic Service Announcement:

Ayam thinking people should by UBN.

=====
***……..i am just a conspiracy theorist so if you don't follow my thoughts you will be acting in a very rational and logical way.

is it swallowing or abt to be swallowed??

psrticularyly with the impending (2nd half 2020) banks recapitalisation exercise

TLAX:
I suspect that is where abnormal returns will be made this year or next. Not because of any fundamental anything but simply M&A activity. The stars seem to align there like in Diamond (2018), Dangflour (2019).

I no advise anybody to go and buy o. I no get any inside information either.

Chief what are those STARS?

Marlianvestor:
The sign then was market lethargy (normal mkt occurrence when no enticing catalysts/news etc), but the situation right now is a different ball game entirely - the goal post is shifting... Time to ignore the broader mkt trend and just focussed on haven stocks that have been unduly punished as a result of the Coronavirus eg Zenith, GTbank and the likes...

Wa gbayi omo ye mi

currentprice:
nobody see coronavirus coming, this virus affected the movement seen last month which expected to continue this month but mkt has been badly affected and change the sentiments to favor those expecting bear mkt in order to buy low. seeing price move below the cycle pinbar on daily was a bad signal and price unable to move inside the weekly clouds makes matter worse

though the fundamental of stocks remain intact but if one have the opportunities to sell with little profit since price still well above August/sept prices, do so to buy more unit later.

if you sell, it not necessarily you buy back same stock as new opportunities will shows on other good stock. it another opportunity to make us rich

The Coronavirus is what i wld call a black swan

As u said its taking us back to reset so its an opportunity for those who had disembark and those who missed the initial journey to join the journey cos fundamentals remain as b4

mendes911:
Waan$$$$5 is a classic example of "men them"..... Imagine shipping out his funds at below N160/$ and round tripping at N450. That na double bottom.

And all the scenario he narrated to me happened one by one. Being one of his body guards at Mama Ejiro bukka paid off big time.

That Gentleman know the Nigerian Financial Market like the back of his hand plus his street sense na die

Head or tail he always win (though he lost some but they are far between and shld be expected since we are but mortal)

im sure he wld do well where he is now though that coliseum is much bigger Arena and there are bigger sharks in it but he got all the building blocks to survive in it.

Really wish i cld track him down. i wld just be contented with watching (and mimicking) some of his plays

mendes911:
OMO and T-Bills saved the day last year. Decapitation was about to happen before that slash in T-Bills happened.

Remember I asked you then what would happen when T-Bills and OMO funds gets exhausted? I think it now coincided with CRR Hike, CoronaVirus and brent decline.

When it rains, it pours but chaps had a good window to sell and run but some didn't.

Back to dollar purchase, I know that there's still time but when do you think it will become necessary to buy forex? Waan5 gave me clue during the last time and I can never thank him enough. I wonder where that gentleman is now.

Baba has relocated to Texas

Playing the Shale game big time

in one of his last post he hinted that he acquired some DUC well when oil went as low as 39

im sure that gentleman wld be a billionaire (in any currency by now)

currentprice:
i think mkt wanted to pick the year high but we have not near year high in my opinion

this is not the time when price just breakout ichimoku cloud on d daily

not the time to SELL but u know what pple will be taken profit for the fear of the past two years while price will continue moving up pass their exit prices

ask those that fear took profit on uba , zenith yesterday

Thank you appr8 ur response

Oga FXUser / Bullbear Mkt you perspective wld also be appreciated

currentprice:
One will happen soon. Year high or year low
and it will be very fast

Cc fxuser

Oga Current price is it year High or year low

Oga FXuser your contribution wld be highly appreciated

RabbiDoracle:
I don't hold any Access nor GTB.

Make I stop here and not create panic.

I wish everyone the best. My remaining holdings will be for dividend cashflow.

See you guys in September - October 2020.

Oga Oracle dont come and go Mbanu.

i can see ur hand in that 74m units of Zenith all the way from 16 and that UBA of 86m unit all the way from 5.5

too much money. i beg pay some tithe for the boys

hmmmmmmmmm

Agbalowomeri:
Hmmm maybe mid-term
Short-term is filled with landmines

There goes a veteran with many scars

Oga BigJay i was about to same thing, the only thing i can add further is that u shld test that terrain gradually (with some cant kill part of you portfolio)

RabbiDoracle:
Is that blood?

The drowning technique have started. Once the waves throw you up, clutch unto a straw.

Goodluck guys.

My Oga i beg make u no kill me oooooooo

lollllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

RabbiDoracle:
Careful bro.

Look at banks individually. And you will see some signs.

lol early in the morning i beg make una no kill me for NSEMPA

the situation na truly 69 as someone said

distinguishing factor is whether u a invested (or d extent thereof) or not

My Ogas i beg make una no kill me

NSEMPA is a treasure trove for any student of Behavioural Finance

austinkenneth:
The big seller in Zenith is stepping down gradually in steps of 50 kobo

The guy is just an unserious fella

instead of make him come our junction (17) make we help relieve am of the heavy load wey hin carry

Na headache go finish am for that junction (18.5)

RabbiDoracle:
This doesn't look like bull yet o. It rises for some weeks, it falls afterwards and alternates.

The market is not easy to make calls.

Trade safe. Stay on banks. If you are trapped in it, you will just be enjoying dividends. Buy price is key to enjoying a good DY.

My Oga dont tell me you are abandoning the ship ooooooo

Joke apart the best in this market, for now, is to go for dividend (doing well to look at the yield vis a vis money market)

The macro is not supportive of any sustained rally for now (so it i.e. rally is going to come in fit and bits)

My fear is that the Macro itself is deteriorating (copy recent Moody downgrade) though there are few green upshoots in the macro but these upshoots are still below thier potential

my prayer (and wish) is that as we go into the new year these macros should improve further or at worst not deteriorate further

Only then could we be talking of sustained rally

Jejebabaa:
Boss, u better pray for me make I no file for bankruptcy. If devaluation meet that loan, na serious yawah be that ooo.

My Oga i know wan blive say devaluation (whenever it comes) wld meet u on d loan

d second base wey oga oracle dey usher in i blive wld come b4 any devaluation. u can bail out as soon as d second base come and pay out the loan (while enjoying ur gain therefrom) so that the negative (of devaluation) does not meet u on d loan

RabbiDoracle:
Something that was at 16 for a long time, now it took off and you are still at the bus stop waiting.

If December accelerates, any profit taking will not dent the price. All bank stocks are cruising above the Kumo on the daily ichimoku.

Further rise in December will mean that they have started cruising above the Kumo on the weekly. Access is the only bank that is comfortably above the cloud on the weekly.

Once a stock is above the kumo, profit taking will only bring it down a little but it is still where it is.

i bought d little that my cashflow cld sustain then

na because more cashflow come now i wan buy again

my oga just pay me my gateman salary unlike una wey dey collect FAAC allocation monthly (blackgold things)

i even beg oga jejebaba then make him include me for hin foreign loan (like baba buhari own) wey hin dey arrange then but he use style dodge me

make una help me beg the chinese man make him come my yunction, i beg because me self wan enjoy dis second base wey dey come (make una no enjoy alone)

nna777:
Those our Chinese guys are back .

d guy no serious instead make hin come meet us for our junction (17) he dey carry d kaya for head dey wait at 18.50

na headache go injure am for dat junction with the kaya wen hin carry for head

if hin like make hin no come our junction make we help am relieve am of d heavy load wey hin carry for head

sellydion:
I tire for the clone jIm

the guy is just unserious he shld sell back to the 17 region if he want to get the kind of volume to clear him out (at least at that region before he was able to get triple digit million sales). im sure those that have already clock out of some stocks that had already made sizebale climb wld be very interested at that region

then let the thing move afterwards

what is this his style of dying a hundred time? with piecemeal / pieces selling

nna777:
My intention was not to cause panic oo. If it seem that way, I apologize.

i beg cause d panic

dey shld bring it biko

particularly at 17 below

we go manage am even if d NTB (their mainstay) fall lower

we are not dat greedy

RabbiDoracle:
People said so long as PMB is the president that here will be bears!

What is happening today?

Please who is the president?

i never belong to that category

i even bought more when they were shouting dat. i only stopped buying because fund was exhausted however i wld still keep my feet firmly on the ground and face reality

current rally is due to policy pronoucement (OMO shut out) and nothing to do with economic performance (best of 2% GDP rise)

with the notorious reputation of our goverment for policy flip flops, that pronoucement itself cld change but my take is that even if it does not change there is a limit the anchor (NTB) could go lower at which point it wld start impacting negatively on the FX rate (which is the scrotum of this govt) hence my take that the effect of the policy pronouncement wld eventually wear off

mendes911:
But I will say it was 50/50. Both of you won. GTB touched a new low within the period Agba said it was going to touch down.

But in all sincerity, there was no bull until OMO and TBills funds showed up. Am sure you know that already.

That was the Game Changer

but its a steriod that wld wear off as soon as NTB rate settle into the 8-10 band (mayb by q1 2020) because last last we (retail / local institutional affected by the OMO shutout) are only looking for avenue to pack our funds for YIELD

structurally (economy wise) nothing has changed yet


n.b note that the Anchor (NTB) mioght still go down further 6-8 before it comes back to settle into the 8-10 range so the market mightr still get more exuberant before the wear off

rebekah2011:
Oga OGG, Good morning to you. Is this your new way of recommending stocks? making money here is becoming more difficult oooooo. But come to think of it, who are those that are still buying stocks here? This period is harvesting time oooooo. If you have the cash to still invest, I do not think the cash will cry if you refuse to invest it. I cannot really see what has changed with the stocks except that we all hope the excess liquidity from OMO and NTBs will flow into the equities.

The thing that has changed is the shutting out of OMO and fall of rate at NTB

People should be careful of this thing cos its like admnistering a steriod / morphine, it wld eventually wear off

moreso a lot of the local institutional investors in the OMO space (shutout) wld gladly still take the 10% being offered at the NTB instead of equities.

so the ACTUAL effect in the equities space wont be as much as d figures (>1 trillion) being bandied so pple shld not get carried away (max of 10 - 20% of the fund dat were forbided from coming back to OMO wld flow here cos d rate on NTB though down is still tidy)

As for the NTB/365 itself which seems to be the new ANCHOR in town i dont see it going below upper single digit (8-10) because of structural constraint (local economy constraint / impact on FX windows which the issuer CBN/FGN is very sensitive of) and also international constraint (G8 rate movement e.t.c).

So my take is that recent happenings had drawn a clear bottom / resistance on the down trend of the last two years but there is nothing out there yet for a NASA like take off of the equity market, what we wld have at best (with the current impetus) is some few steps away from the bottom

mendes911:
Thank You Sir.

But if they are selling Zenith to key into others, am yet to see all the huge cash flow across. Sales in Zenith is already in excess of #20B.

As per Access, it's looking more or less like a P&. They come in from 1pm to keep the tempo of bull-like market. Any afternoon they fail to come, na that day breeze go show fowl yarsh.

We keep watching though. We go all make the money finally.

Baba i say again u na veteran.

People shld be asking hard and fundamental questions

what is d div yield at today price compare to the NTB/365 of 10%. (ok i hear dey wld say dey are pricing in the growth story in but na wetin i chop i sabi)

last last we wld all d alright

sellydion:
Where is our faith na? Him be Jim

u neva can say whether him na Jim ooo lol

mendes911:
Will 18 months work? Considering there will be April - October within that period.

its a spectrum and not absolute its as soon as objective (75 - 100%) is achieved (with a combo poo and vomit)

mendes911:
Chief,

How long is your long term play (considering your notion of poo and vomit)?

6 - 18 month (but entry point is d key here)

mendes911:
You of all people know that there are stages in this market.

There will be a period, I will buy zenith for N24 hoping to sell at N27 and make my 10%.

Life na turn by turn and in stages.

When zenith was trading at N19, you never saw it coming down to N16 and likewise what happened in GTB. For now, I will even be more interested in UBA than Zenith. I forsee overhead effect in Zenith. I could be wrong though.

Like I said, let us all play the market how we best deem it.

Shalom.

veteran

short term play (jijo / 1-2 month) CAPITAL NO cos of bolded

Medium tier play (1 - 6b months) Excellently (poo and vomit)

Long term play (above 6 months) Ultra Excellent ( multpile poo and vomit)