₦airaland Forum

RabbiDoracle:
Bro,

It seems US futures circuit breakers has been triggered o.

No trade going on the US futures.

My Oga that wld surely be a positive

it if its trigerred then it means d worst as envisaged by the SYSTEM had been breached

then the SYSTEM wld surely step in to calm nerves

as i stated earlier

WHERE IS THE SAFETY

As for me and my household d its not ARMAGEDDON yet

so i wld take it that i had beeen dropped in the desert with no timepiece, so the next guidance is how long my shadow is and the direction of the wind for guidance to know how to proceed.

Selah

At times like this i wld implore folks to look at fundamentals for guidance

example if you have no watch and u a suddenly drop in the middle of a desert how do u tell which time of the day it is? u look at the sun and possible the intensity of the heat and possibly how long ur shadows are, these are the fundamentals of time keeping


Example wld Brent sell for $0 obvious no

wld Brent sell for $10 yes but probability very low (say 10%)

wld Brent sell for $20 yes but probability low( note that i had remove the very, so let say 20%)

so in essence hw far wld d Nigeria Economy suffer if brent sell for say $30 (which is highly probable) as an example. For guidance anchor for this year is $57 that give a loss of $27 which is abt 47%, so in the absence of any better guidance you can then extrapolate teh 47% loss to the profit/ dividend each coys made as per the last Audited statements, from this u can eke out possible valuation if the $30 hold then this valuations can then guide the possible price ranges.

so people should know that it is not ARMAGEDDON yet and we wld get to a point that prices wld start making sense again but till then it is to thy tent o isreal

RabbiDoracle:
Bros, there is nothing wrong with fundamentals of most company around the world.

Investors are pricing in lots of things right now with the coronavirus and oil price issues. They are even pricing in US and global recession. The US 10 year yield is pushing the Fed to do further cut.

There is flight to safety first.

But i keep asking

WHERE IS THE SAFETY?

RabbiDoracle:
What we don't know is how long this oil price slash will last. Remember Russia hardly backs down in any challenge.

If it stays through summer, it will knock lots of economies into recession.

Just wait and buy at ridiculously low prices.

my oga while doing d waiting it is beta to flee to safe haven (greenback) with the little cash i have been able to scurry out of d market

RabbiDoracle:
Hold cash. Prices will still get cheaper.

Buy 1 and pack all the remainder for free.

my oga with d strong thing wey russia do for Friday. Na to thy tent o isreal.

Agbalowomeri:
could be a pullback to go lower
could also be a bottom; it's a strong support

There is a high probability the support would hold (at least for the week)

next opec+ meeting is March 5-7 (barely 3 days away)

Russia (the major dissenting voice) seems to be realigning to a cut (Putin body language last week not minding his bragaddo that they are comfortable with price at 50 cos thier budget benchmark was 40)

Plus US rig count is going down (3 weeks consequtively) and u shld also expect the corovirus to also affect the supply / supply chain of oil too (though at a slower pace than it wld affect demand)

but if Opec+ does not cut / extend current cut then na to run 4 by 400 race cos then oil wld surely dance konko below to lower - mid 30

I just love the discussion going onnn





The recommendations is you shld keep ur cash because of the scourge

but as Prof said some few nights ago

u should remember that if the scourge continue unabated your cash wld also loose value because it wld be useless

so my admonition is whether you are in cash or other assets,

firstly take precautions (and continuosly ensure same) so that the scourge doesnt come near ur or your household,

secondly hope / pray that a solution (vaccine or effective drugs) is found soonest (because if not then we are all screwed eventually whether precautions / cash / other assets. Also the longer a solution is found the more the global damage (economical / human e.t.c) .

thirdly decide which assets class (or an optimal combinations thereof) suites your temperament and hold in that order so that you dont lose ur mind before u lose ur assets.

RabbiDoracle:
No wahala bro.

This mail u pple a sharingggggggggg

There is God ooooooooooo

DeRuggedProf:
A point will be reached by this Corona Virus that even your cash will become useless. What is the value of cash if all producers of goods and services shut down. My people, let's use our white stuff beyond this evil virus.
Some people might be scheming all of us already.
How are we not sure there is an effective cure, but the evil men are not done with SHAKEOUT?

The first bold cld be use as a guide. Gold a supposed safe haven is also loosing. at this moment the major asset that is appreciating is US 10 year Treasury, which if this continue wld also halt appreciation following the first bolded from Prof

As for the second bolded from Prof. Personally i dont believe conspiracy theories, my take is that this Pandemic is not being engineered, Rather it is a breakout which we shld all hope be brought under control (either through effective drugs or vaccine) as soon as possible. because if not in the long run then we are all in trouble whether you in cash stock gold treasuries bond e.t.c.

DeRuggedProf:
This is why the safest buy IF YOU MUST BUY is WAPCO.
Coming from a very bad position, the share price is the safest.
Any little progress will look MASSIVE in comparison.....
The power of RELATIVITY.

NB: I have long term units here. Keeping them like bonds, until cash misses road into wrong hands that stumble on the shares. ...

Nice perpective my oga

mendes911:
They all complain of glut but they still wouldn't reduce cost of cement.

Alhaji might be dumping this business once the refinery kicks off.

My Oga typical of all businessmen u dont expect them to reduce price just like that until they have exhaust all other options (see as Alhaji keep promoting it as an alternative to bitumen in road construction)

However last last someone wld have to let the cat out first (im suspecting BUA) then the other wld follow suit although we might still be a little far off that (say 2 years) cos alterantives (one of which is mentioned above) is presently being explored.

As for Alhaji leaving, i dont think so (cos of size / sentiment) as u can see its African expansion which had not subsided. Although ultimately he might whittle down his share of it (a la the buy back and some manouvers to list in international centres (london / new york e.t.c) that had been ongoing for abt 2 - 3 years)

DeRuggedProf:
Yet to read it. Oracle told me Dangcem won't have an impressive result.....

Let's look deeper, something good may be found in it.

Its not only Dangote

the Cement Sector in general

Competitive industry analysis wise the Sector is just entering into the same cycle that the Brewery sector is half way gone (though causative factor might differs)

The sector is moving gradually away from being a price giver to a price taker

Efficiency and Muscle wld matter more as we go forward

those in BUA / Wapco shld take note however Dangote situation cld have been worsen by the goverment hell bent on ending loophole in the country tax system (e.g. Pioneer Tax)

Marlianvestor:
Love double-digit yield! Cool way to pay yourself an annuity - Imagine investing say N100m on FGN bonds @ 12% net equals N1m monthly income, that would conservatively take care of all your bills....

Brother ur head they dir

Na to locate the N100m be d koko

na d journey i been dey for more than 2 decade noww but the destination dey be like mirage but no retreat no surrender

when i finally get the destination i no go even look FGN bond na to do Eurobond (8%) so that head or tail (devaluation wise) i win

but my brother that destination ehnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn na wire

mendes911:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/29032_FBN_HOLDINGS_PLC_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_FEBRUARY_2020.pdf

thank u appr8

my people please someone should bless me with the FBNH unaudited full year result

thank you

mendes911:
Chief, leave Oga Agba oooo. He knows what he's doing. He saw this long ago and printed it here, alongside his jokes. Once one can decipher when he's joking, you are good to go.

His post about a hammer last week was ended with a smiley, he wasn't serious about it.

yes i no Agba style and saw that post when he made it

he was talking abt weekly

though i think the double bottom on the weekly itself is also double

so na the confusion wey wan scatter me be dat (as i be prymary 1 student for this area)

but he is talking about the weekly

Agbalowomeri:
My eyes still dirty my brother
Wetin I see sef

Oga Mendes you no well at all

with the kindof Tyson Fury punch wey Agba dey recieve for NSE you still expect am to see properly

No be double bottom him see na double breasted button


lollllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

Agbalowomeri:
The next support is home

Agba i beg no kill meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee ooooooooooooooooooooooooo


Home support indeed lolllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

mendes911:
They always start with restrictions before the final devaluation.

Banks can't sell FX to you and you can't transfer international what you deposited yourself.

Policy somersault in Nigeria. Counter productive.

boss i dont think this is true " Banks can't sell FX to you"

but this is true "can't transfer international what you deposited yourself"


However for the one that is true i dont think the major aim was for restriction of USD, the aim realy was curb laundering

But the timing (when reserve are falling) is totally wrong plus the fact that CBN is overeaching itself by policing the laundering and not leaving same to EFCC. Hence i somehow agree that the policy might be reversed.

The FPI not get joy at all. the are soulless and play without emotions

Agbalowomeri:
It appears some dollar restrictions on the horizon

There is high probability this is what is driving the market

not with the rumour on the street (on FCY deposit) that the CBN had to quickly (on a non working day i.e. Sunday) dispel (via a non traditional media tool for a regulator i.e. twitter).

That shows the desperacy of the regulator (CBN) and it seems the FPI are rather buying the rumour than the CBN explanation.

if u add above to the BDC end also being strained (went as low as 367.5 during last week) then u cant really blame the FPI for believing the rumour

The major option the CBN can use to counter the rumour is apparently not available to it (i.e. to flood the market with USD) due to shrinking reserve.

As it is the FI (NSE) space run might continue until the CBN can CONVINCINGLY assuage the market (FPI) that devaluation is not on the table (at least for now)


N.B. Personally im convince that devaluation is not on the table (at least short term - 30 - 90 days) but my opinion does not count plus the FPI that are not convinced surely see more than me cos they are institutionally, though they are also in MOST CASES hysterical and i think this is one of such occasion.

Marlianvestor:
The FPIs are just looking for guarantees re. their carry trade activities incl. the sustainability of their OMO bills participation) and Meffy has given them a longer 5 year FX forwards contract to appease them. With this, just watch out for the rising yield in the FGN bonds (thought very low now) and that to me, is the headwind for the stock markets, not imminent devaluation.... Once the yield is back in double digit, wahala dey for stock mkts!

i dont think d rate wld be back in double digit (cos d old regime of double digit was clearly not sustainable) although all said the current regime of low single digits is also not sustainable. u can look at eurobond for guidance but me think mid -- long term it wld be back on in upper single digit which shld not be too bad for the bourse. However Egypt cld be a spoiler here cos they are d direct competitor for that sphere and how they play determine how Meffy wld play except he has Oil in his wind.

The known Unknown is Global as per the Recession Onifa was trying to call attention to and that is my major fear because it is increasingly looking as the last & only remaining card that cld help stop the disruptor in chief. Hw far capitalism is willing to play that card is what i cant say at today

TLAX:
Pubic Service Announcement:

Ayam thinking people should by UBN.

=====
***……..i am just a conspiracy theorist so if you don't follow my thoughts you will be acting in a very rational and logical way.

is it swallowing or abt to be swallowed??

psrticularyly with the impending (2nd half 2020) banks recapitalisation exercise

TLAX:
I suspect that is where abnormal returns will be made this year or next. Not because of any fundamental anything but simply M&A activity. The stars seem to align there like in Diamond (2018), Dangflour (2019).

I no advise anybody to go and buy o. I no get any inside information either.

Chief what are those STARS?

Marlianvestor:
The sign then was market lethargy (normal mkt occurrence when no enticing catalysts/news etc), but the situation right now is a different ball game entirely - the goal post is shifting... Time to ignore the broader mkt trend and just focussed on haven stocks that have been unduly punished as a result of the Coronavirus eg Zenith, GTbank and the likes...

Wa gbayi omo ye mi

currentprice:
nobody see coronavirus coming, this virus affected the movement seen last month which expected to continue this month but mkt has been badly affected and change the sentiments to favor those expecting bear mkt in order to buy low. seeing price move below the cycle pinbar on daily was a bad signal and price unable to move inside the weekly clouds makes matter worse

though the fundamental of stocks remain intact but if one have the opportunities to sell with little profit since price still well above August/sept prices, do so to buy more unit later.

if you sell, it not necessarily you buy back same stock as new opportunities will shows on other good stock. it another opportunity to make us rich

The Coronavirus is what i wld call a black swan

As u said its taking us back to reset so its an opportunity for those who had disembark and those who missed the initial journey to join the journey cos fundamentals remain as b4

mendes911:
Waan$$$$5 is a classic example of "men them"..... Imagine shipping out his funds at below N160/$ and round tripping at N450. That na double bottom.

And all the scenario he narrated to me happened one by one. Being one of his body guards at Mama Ejiro bukka paid off big time.

That Gentleman know the Nigerian Financial Market like the back of his hand plus his street sense na die

Head or tail he always win (though he lost some but they are far between and shld be expected since we are but mortal)

im sure he wld do well where he is now though that coliseum is much bigger Arena and there are bigger sharks in it but he got all the building blocks to survive in it.

Really wish i cld track him down. i wld just be contented with watching (and mimicking) some of his plays

mendes911:
OMO and T-Bills saved the day last year. Decapitation was about to happen before that slash in T-Bills happened.

Remember I asked you then what would happen when T-Bills and OMO funds gets exhausted? I think it now coincided with CRR Hike, CoronaVirus and brent decline.

When it rains, it pours but chaps had a good window to sell and run but some didn't.

Back to dollar purchase, I know that there's still time but when do you think it will become necessary to buy forex? Waan5 gave me clue during the last time and I can never thank him enough. I wonder where that gentleman is now.

Baba has relocated to Texas

Playing the Shale game big time

in one of his last post he hinted that he acquired some DUC well when oil went as low as 39

im sure that gentleman wld be a billionaire (in any currency by now)

currentprice:
i think mkt wanted to pick the year high but we have not near year high in my opinion

this is not the time when price just breakout ichimoku cloud on d daily

not the time to SELL but u know what pple will be taken profit for the fear of the past two years while price will continue moving up pass their exit prices

ask those that fear took profit on uba , zenith yesterday

Thank you appr8 ur response

Oga FXUser / Bullbear Mkt you perspective wld also be appreciated

currentprice:
One will happen soon. Year high or year low
and it will be very fast

Cc fxuser

Oga Current price is it year High or year low

Oga FXuser your contribution wld be highly appreciated

RabbiDoracle:
I don't hold any Access nor GTB.

Make I stop here and not create panic.

I wish everyone the best. My remaining holdings will be for dividend cashflow.

See you guys in September - October 2020.

Oga Oracle dont come and go Mbanu.

i can see ur hand in that 74m units of Zenith all the way from 16 and that UBA of 86m unit all the way from 5.5

too much money. i beg pay some tithe for the boys

hmmmmmmmmm

Agbalowomeri:
Hmmm maybe mid-term
Short-term is filled with landmines

There goes a veteran with many scars

Oga BigJay i was about to same thing, the only thing i can add further is that u shld test that terrain gradually (with some cant kill part of you portfolio)

RabbiDoracle:
Is that blood?

The drowning technique have started. Once the waves throw you up, clutch unto a straw.

Goodluck guys.

My Oga i beg make u no kill me oooooooo

lollllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll