₦airaland Forum

nna777:
Let's see how it goes. They might just surprise us

I pray so, but i ma just managing my expectation

nna777:
From what is going on in UCAP, looks like dividend will be 60k. Volumes are packed @ 6:50 to 6:60.

My opinion.

Chief i dont see them doing more than 50k

sellydion:
If you remember Sir Wanajo comments, that day the NSE struck a major resistance.
I pray the market breakthrough

42k is a major resistance and it is normal that it wld be tested, so what is happening is normal. my take is that if 40K hold for this week close and next week close, then the ASI wld test 42 again. if it breaks 42 then the next test is 44 which is not far off so it might want to test both in one sweep. if it is able to break both then expect a very big leap and if not then it means the two year electoral cycle (downtrend) has kicked in (cc Agba).

factors that cld help with breaking 42/ 44 are rate in fixed income space does not increased further from current point (e.g. NTB 1 YR/ 4%), devaluation of naira (this has an inverse relationship to ASI), better recoveries from ravages of COVID 19. Factors that cld hasten the onset of the two year electoral cycle decline are opposite of above i.e. rate in fixed income space increases further (e.g. NTB 1 YR/ 8-12%), Naira not devalued, continue struggle with COVID 19, increase in insecurity. woeful performance from major clisted coys

Zagee:
How low can Zee go?

Bloody and beautiful

They shld put it to full bid by close today and also tomorrow so that we can arrive at sub 20 quickly

They shld pack all their money and go back to the NTB and leave this market for us.

wisdom2345:
The Plumming of this stocks is as people expect NTB rates to be above 5% for the 364day bill and then 10.1% in the OMO would hint Foreign investors to sell equities and even bonds in the secondary market to lock cash in OMO @ 10.1%

We just pray and hope that today’s NTB still dips lower but if it appreciates more locals would sell off assets in the stocks market to gain risk free return in t bills

you sabi well well

locodemy:
Trading is over for the year.

We tried our best in 2020.

2021 will be better for us

Amen

nna777:
Agba please help me confirm. Next key ASI resistance is 43k briefly before touching 45k and time frame is btw now and second week in January.

Cc: other TAs should help me check and confirm too. Thanks.

My Oga we MIGHT be surmounting both resistance this time around (unlike 2014 and 2018) however the ride would be quite VOLATILE and BUMPY. Also the time frame wld be a little stretched. My thesis rest on twin factor of big caps listed within the last up (2018) and now (e.g MTN / AIRTEL/ BUA) and the fact that the world is just at the START of resurgence / recovery from a Global hit (Covid 19) with more leg room to UP and its attendant spillover into our market.

currentprice:
the way this stock is pumping is a likely sign that mkt Bears is closer. nothing supporting the cp

let be careful

my Oga na Forbes thing plus possibly finance raise viz a viz expansion of the Group (3 new cement lines, pivot into refinery, pasta e.t.c) by using the shares (and invariably its price) as the currency/ collateral to back intl debt raise (a la Dangote model)

bigjay01:
NSE ASI 5YR High was 45092 on 19/01/2018.

Let's see how this one compares

i think we are going back there, though the journey wld definitely not be str8

ositadiima1:
I think Zenith highest price ever was 34 something in 2018. Will zenith break this record ? Simple calculation shows that it is likely .

If dividend payout remains same at 2.8 Naira then 2.8/34*100 = 8% which is still better than current interest rates.

oil dey ur head i sincerely believe it wld beat that ATH also considering the paucity of outlet for such gain in the Nigeria financial space currently but even at that if anybody is heavy on any stock (e.g those who do 2 -3 stocks only) i wld advise dey get down at intervals instead of trying to target getting down at peak.

RabbiDoracle:
The global asset fall should accelerate. EU, US and Asian equities will be battered. Contagion effect will cause others to fall. Circuit breakers should be triggered there.

The foreign index market structure was broken in September 2020. But people were basking in the euphoria.

Activate your contingency plan.

Goodluck.

Hello My Oga

While i agree with you that contingency plan should be readied. we need to note that the current bull run on NSE is largely being fueled by wall of liquidity caused by regulatory policy (CBN) in the fixed income space (though it was late in coming). so me wld say d thing to really look out for in other to know when the party has ended/ is ending wld actually be CBN play on the fixed income market space and / or when the dividend yield on major counters start rivalling the current yield on long term fixed income instruments (currently circa 6-8%).

All said, my take wld be that pple shld gradually take profit so that they wnt be taken unaware when the tide changes.

N.b i took some even before the current bull run, presently taking some also now, while i reserve some shld in case my readings are wrong.

RabbiDoracle:
In this context, the two banks considered are commercial banks and not investment banks. So I expect more of net Interest income than net trading in them.

Do you know that investors will wonder and ask questions on the reduce net interest income (for Access bank) to know if there is any issue with the loan books? If there is any issue, how bad is it? How are the provisions going to be? Did they make lower provision for losses which in turn made the PAT look good? These are the questions that can arise from just seeing that lower net interest income.

Investors can ask questions on non-core items but it will not be like the core items. Core item is the life of the bank. Just like Japaul having gross profit of less than N1b in its core operations but declaring N42b in non-core profit. Wetin be that? That tells you that the Japaul can't function after that one off gains.

Now back to UBA, investors will not ask questions on the core function because they can see growth even during this pandemic. However they will ask questions about the 'other expenses'. And you will agree with me that those other expenses can be easily controlled. Like the covid donations, it is within the management prerogative not to donate and if they don't, this adds to the PAT. So you will see that while management can control this line items, but you can't easily control current loan losses.

So if you see decline in Net interest income as nothing, bro, it is a big deal o. This means that some of the loans aren't performing.

let me contribute to the discussion cos i like d intellectual bent of it and i have picked some salient points from both perspectives

my scan reading of UBA half year showed that the spike in expenses where largely form 2 expense line employee benefit (increase of 7b) and other opex (14b increase) which in total give 21b. The employee benefit spike i am sure wld largely be associated with the January 2020 mass realignment of its workforce (severance pay likely) hence shld be one off and also bring some future savings. while further dissecting of other opex showed that the spike on this line was caused by spike in donation (of 4.7b); spike in contract services ( increase of 4.8b) and amcon levy (increase of 2.5b). now speaking to each of this sub head: donations should be one off, contract services i wldnt know d cause but my guess is also January workforce realignment, while amcon levy is regulatory.

Summary of above is that the spike in expense which was the cause of decline in PAT are largely one off (except for amcon levy).

TLAX:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/31355_STANBIC_IBTC__HOLDINGS_PLC-_QUARTER_2_-_FINANCIAL_STAT.pdf

Interim dividend of 40k. Down from N1 in 2019 even though profit after tax & EPS increased. COVID 19 matters.

I know most of the accounts will be released this week.....

from above . it can be reasonably assumed that the reduction of dividend has some kind of regulatory impetus hence would go round.

year end dividend might take a cut of between 15-30% (compared to prior year) across board

nna777:
What of those that have been hoarding?

Won't they sell now leading to liquidity?

I want to believe dollar scarcity was artificial

Chief those that are hoarding wld not sell until they see that someone is in the market that could make the scarcity go away. it is only then they wld be willing to offload. it is just simple human economic behaviour.

so if cbn want to be taken serious it shld enter teh I& E window and provide enough liquidity as well as sell two to three weekly rounds to BDC

only then wld d hoarding / artificial scarcity go away

nna777:
I think the current devalued CBN exchange rate will bring some form of direction to the market. Currency speculators will now be scrambling to cut losses .

It is one thing to adjust / devalue, it is another thing to soak up pent up demand / supply market at that new rate.

If the latter does not follow the former, expect the situation to remain the same (if not worsened)

[quote author=mendes911 post=92551834]You and penny stocks toorrr.

#Bike......[/quote


hmmmmm this one wey Oge mendes don surface sooooooooo

Na only Agba remain wey we dey expect

Welcome Sir

BAMOFIN1:
Search his name on YouTube. I have more than 30 of his videos. You will learn a lot from him, though his investing rule is too conservative. I doubt whether a single stock on NSE can pass his test.

OK wld do

thank you

akinssan:
Check the attached...Great Rule to wealth.

hello Chief no attachment

kindly reattach

thank you

IYGEAL:
Also thanks to the person that recommended that Phil Town's book.

hello chief wld appr8 if u share d link for the Phil Town book

thank you

TLAX:
There is no bewilderment. The Fed money you were waiting for is not coming. The FPIs that are already inside are looking for ways out. The local players with financial muscle are doing siddon look. If the index can get back to January 2020 level before year end it should be considered a win.

One way of making money from stock investment i.e. dividend is still viable. Better in those that pay twice if bought at the right price.

My Oga i totally agree with u but nevertheless i think it wld come (i.e. Fed Money) though it wld be late and might not be much. The reasons are Meffy wld eventually resolve the FX issues (possibly b4 d year end), d printing is going to be on till 2022 (as guided by Powel), So my take is if Meffy solve d FX issues before end of q1 2021 some of it wld eventually find its way down.

DrAwo:
Annualised PE of 4.2
Gross ratio 51%
Net ratio 43%
Debt ratio 92%
Debt/equity ratio 1112% (yes! You read that correctly)
Annualised ROA 1.74%
Annualised ROE 21%
P/B ratio 0.89

My Oga

Nothing wrong with that ratio.

That is how an investment bank is supposed to run (high leverage) with occasional sell down of the levered products particular when the products had developed a life of its own

Na dem dey dull demself sinceeeee

Them just dey start d real business they were established to do

emmanuelewumi:
I only do FG bonds.

United Capital bonds offered about 12%, currently using the fund to buy some underpriced assets. I don't know when United Capital will push part of the over N10 billion raised into the stock market.

ok sir

emmanuelewumi:
I hope this bonds will perform sha?

N10 million will earn a total coupon of N10 million in 7 years.

If the Investor reinvest his coupons for 7 years at a conservative return of 10% should be able grow his coupons to N13.3 million at maturity.

Plus the invested sum, that will be N23.3 million. Not bad for investors who care concerned about the safety of their capital through fixed income Investment over a period of 7 years.

My Oga Tread carefully

Axxela is majorly the power / gas distribution arm of Oando (divested)

Even banks are now lending at lower rates (to corporates) than the coupon rate of 14%, so why is a supposed mid level corporate willing to borrow at 14% particularly in thsi ultra low rate environment we are in

emmanuelewumi:
Pray for the best, plan for the worst and prepare to be surprised.

Anything and everything is possible.

Unbundling of UACN businesses will unlock wealth for Investors, it will also show that the managers of UACN are shareholders centric.

Will UPDC support the unbundling at this time? Maybe in another 12 months or 24 months, just speculating.

After the unbundling the loser will be UPDC, the company will have to be independent. The company has no father ie UACN to run to when it has financial crisis, the unbundling will also put an end to the dividend of about N1 billion UPDC gets from his son UPDC REIT.

The revenue generated by UPDC in 2019 couldn't take care of the company's expenses. This is a disaster, if such a company is made to stand alone

I think the core Investors of UACN want UPDC to succeed post unbundling, considering the state of the economy and the real estate market, this may not be the right time to allow UPDC stand on its own.

That is why, I am against talking or predicting about market outcomes with 100% certainty, we will always be proved wrong again and again.

Always good, humble and intelligent to give room for that element of surprises and disappointments.

My opinion though

Boss UPDC predicament is of their own making.

They pioneered the upscale market (in the 90 and early 2000) but den became a dinosaur not extending to other part of the market (mid / lower mid e.t.c) despite a lot of nimble competitors (money bag one man developers) eating away at their cookie pie (upscale). These other markets (mid/ lower mid) had tremendous opportunities as exemplified by lekki garden commercial success / what happened in the osapa/Agungi / chevron corridor.

In summary their future success wld still require them leaving that upscale market into other markets with latent demand or else it wld continue to be a bottomless pit

GonFreecss1:
“Quantitative outright buying?”


Hahahahaha

My Oga i don dey think of d name since Oga Oracle mention am i cant even imagine any name for it

Dont mind dose pple if na third world dey do all dose printing that they are doing they wld say its unorthordox but if na dem dey do am dem go use big grammar dabaru us

las las God dey

RabbiDoracle:
We must still eat from the garden.

My Oga na my prayer be dat ooooooo

because wen d wahala come wether u eat oooo or u no eat ooooo u must contribute to d solution no matter hw smart u think u are

so make i kuku chop overful and carry some spare for head and pocket so dat wen the wahala come i go still get something to donate to the solution without injuring mysef with hunger

sellydion:
A company should be able to use its own inflow. However there could be problem if Items of import

are not included in HS code allowable for import by custom. Custom would deny the importation.

Thank you my Oga

That is why in my post i said Erisco get hin own issue which are in public domain

That news posted by Oga Obagadafi had been refuted by CBN as being a subtle / cheap blackmail . Even after that news Erisco had come out to praise present Govt (probably after he had been sorted out by the authorities). so wetin be my own

i beg make we leave grammar / academics and pray they solve present FX issues so that we all (NSE stalwarts) can have a fair share of all dis money wey powel & the gang are printing massively or else na only d wahala (hyper/ massive inflation) we go help dem solve without having eaten from garden when d wahala come

OBAGADAFFI:
IEW was established in 2017

https://www.cbn.gov.ng/out/2017/fmd/establishment%20of%20investors%27%20&%20exporters%27%20fx%20window.pdf

so y cant he sell hin own money to hinself via d window naaa (even in NSE cross deal is allowed / done)

onegentleguy:
U don't need to stress urself too much bro.
...u already put out a valid point, which I believe is a fact !!

The apex bank also confirmed some of these figures at the time, so anyone with doubt can argue with the CBN.
@ robobo also made some valid points though.
The important thing is that collectively, we all agree that there's need for the country(the current administration not necessarily the CBN alone) to allow for a unified Fx window peg, ease certain supply management regulations and allow for policies that can increase the believability index of our foreign brothers.(exchange rate clarity, confidence boost and greater capital inflow)

That said, I still think that the country's current surrounding Fx situation is still better than pre/post Jan 2018 and March 2020 period when we witnessed a market rally.(the CBN already adjusted/devalued twice)
Again, assets are currently cheaper(valuation in view) than they were then. ...so I still believe there'll be some rally in time. It(the rally) WILL BE SELECTIVE THOUGH.
For the most part, the prevailing circumstance(oil price strain and corona-induced environment)a have already been priced in on most assets/coys.
...so I expect the anti-fragileassets/WINNERS to reprise accordingly.

We continue to observe.

my Oga talking to the bold, in terms of practical value (PPP) of Naira present is better than those two era that u qouted however in term of free flow of FPI present is worse cos for those two era the FPI were able to completely go out (whether by design or accident) but now they are trapped in Naira assets unable to go out. i can say with some high probability of being right that the May / early June rally witnessed on NSE was a result of some FPI rotating back into equity after they cld not get USD upon sales done in March / April

but las las make dem just solve d problem so that we (NSE) can enjoy some of these high wall of liquidity on the global space

OBAGADAFFI:
https://businesspost.ng/economy/forex-crisis-erisco-foods-folds-sacks-1500-workers/?nonamp=1&amp=1

“My business has been deliberately frustrated by the way the CBN has managed forex bidding and allocation.
“They won’t give us forex to import machinery, machine spare parts and raw materials for processing Nigerian fresh tomatoes into paste in our Lagos factory and they won’t give us approval to use our own money (about $460,000) generated from our foreign operations to import our raw materials.

robobo
GonFreecss1
onegentleguy

My Oga make we leave matter for mathius, Erisco get hin own issue which is in public domain

i am not aware that CBN is stoping any exporter from selling proceeds of exports on the IEW since its inception in 2017, so why he cant sell hin own money to hin self via the IEW is what should be talked to as per Erisco

even the FPI / international DFI acknowledged that the IEW is free and functional market. The only issue with it is lack of depth / liquidity

but make we leave all dis grammar make we pray make dem solve d problem b4 all this global excess liquidity go dry up, so that NSE (indirectly me &u) can get its own share