₦airaland Forum

TLAX:
I am not so sure NSE and many emerging markets will be impacted directly from this money printing. While these markets have offered returns over and above what is obtainable from Europe and North America, the uncertainties around exchange rate, CBNs next move and inability to get the monies out of the country will be a major dampener. The guys are not walking their talk of easy exit for foreign investors. The monies trapped here for now cant give the market the kind of push it needs.

By December 2020, If the index gets back to 29k+ where it was in January 2020 i will consider it a decent performance. Isolated stocks may however shine during the remainder of the year. At least M&A in the works should create opportunity for people.

***modified

My Oga well said

First bold is one of the reason why despite Oga Oracle postulation about the pending and coming 10-10% bull im still CAUTIOUSLY optimistics hence holding to some shred of cash. Couple with the fact that if earnings is taken in context of covid 19 hence discounted for a conservative 20% downside most liquid stock are already (or even in some cases ahead) back to pre covid yield level. (e.g pre covid Zenith 2.8 dividend would give 14% yield around the equilibrum price of 20 it was doing then this discounted for 20% covid downside would give potential dividend of 2.24 which marked against the current 16 price showed zenith being back to pre covid yield). So barring substantial FPI NSE might just be appropriately priced at current level taken into consideration its other peculiar risk factors

Mcy56:
Investing.com I think.

Thanks sis

its not investing.com, he mentioned one other one but i cant remember the name

Oga Loco wld appr8 if u help out

Oga Loco

i beg what is the name of that website you derive technicals from

RabbiDoracle:
The US stock market is moving too fast. It needs to go in tandem with reality. More like wait- and-see slow rise (though not falling like in March and not rising too fast).

But I'm watching sha and comparing data.

On EM front, I don't see any issue for now because most money will go chasing yields in most EMs. So na to siddon dey wait for them.

. Ok thank u appr8

RabbiDoracle:
Though fundamentals of all economies have not yet aligned with reality.

. Boss wld appreciate ur perspective on above

rebekah2011:
I have been looking at the market in the last 3 trading days. It has been difficult to pick my targets. Dangote Cement at N130, MTN at N108, Africa Prudential at N3.50, Ucap at N2.25, and Zenith below N14

Dont worry it wld soon come

Not much positives to propel the market for some few coming months

except for unwinding of global lockdown and its knock on effect on oil which underpin the country FX position and ultimately its financial market however in my opinion this had already been priced in as at date hence the only thing that can come from it is a downside if it does not happen as priced in by the market.

so u might see ur above price before / arnd when 2nd quarter result start coming in though you shld not expect teh bloodbath of March/ April cos i dont see market getting to that severe level again

so patienceeee

klas:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/29884_GUINNESS_NIG_PLC_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_MAY_2020.pdf

. Thank you. Appr8

rebekah2011:
Nice observation. You are an experienced grave digger. Have you seen the Q3 results? You may need to go and look at it again. EPS 62K

Chief kindly bless me with the q3 (which you referred to) result

Mcy56:
28th April and payment same day or on 29/30th.

Thanks appr8

i beg my people when is the rescheduled AGM for UBA / UCAP & AFRIPRUD?

RabbiDoracle:
I want to believe that Brent will slide towards 28. I don't think the low of 20 will be seen again. So this is still OK before the next run up in price that will start for Brent.

i agree, in addition, d 28 in my opinion wld also be shortlived (my take is that it wld only be use as an excuse for upcoming shakeout)

as i said earlier my call in the near/short term is 30 - 40 range (30 - 60 / 90 days)

RabbiDoracle:
Lockdown has nothing to do with the fall going forward. Everything has been priced in.

If you see any fall, it is profit taking. PT will hardly dent this market. So I advice people (who can hold) to hold tight if you bought low between 16th to 24th of March 2020.

The market will shake out weak hands and still move to the level it wants to get to.

Chief some wicked shakeout is loading. The theme wld b on declining brent

RabbiDoracle:
Fuel is cheap where we are due to low oil price. But Trump has seen that this like oil price will cripple oil industries and their own job losses will be more painful. Most of them can't fit into any other sector. I think Trump wants to reduce the unemployment that will result from that area. Shale companies will be bankrupted very fast once the low oil price stays for more months.

It will hover around 40 to 50 as economy picks up. Once there is increased in economic activities, it will fly because of the cut.

i agree.

D floor of 30-40 i am looking at is near term (30 - 60 days)

that 40 - 50 wld happen as the world economy recovers obviously (60 -90 days)

but long term oil is on a very long thing as i cant fathom what events / fundamentals cld bring it back to the 70-100 range

RabbiDoracle:
Covid 19 has peaked everywhere. EU, Asia, New York. Around this April, they should start coming out with from their houses and start to spend cheap money given to them. This will keep most companies still operational. Employment will begin to pick up afterwards and everything will be over. But the fact still remains that WEALTH HAS CHANGED HANDS.

There are still headwinds ahead but it cant be as ferocious as what we saw dis Months (March 2020)

that is why i thinned out on cash this week

RabbiDoracle:
Covid 19 has peaked everywhere. EU, Asia, New York. Around this April, they should start coming out with from their houses and start to spend cheap money given to them. This will keep most companies still operational. Employment will begin to pick up afterwards and everything will be over. But the fact still remains that WEALTH HAS CHANGED HANDS.

Dem do Trump strong thing o. Those economic indices(record stock market rise and lowest unemployment record) he brags with are now too bad. Now it will be under him they had the fastest decline in US stock market, pandemic and the highest number of unemployed. He broke the extremes of economic records

My brother na real blow dem deal the guy

if he survives this (and get reelected) he wont ever be d same (for good or for worse)

locodemy:
God bless you.
We are here for a bull.

Sir,will this be a strong bull that can stay longer or we need to watch our back as a result of this covid-19 pandemic?

Even if the outcome does not go as said by Oga Oracle, there is a backstop (from Trump) of tarrifs on oil destined for US market that would kick in

so in effect deal or no deal a floor had been drawn on oil ( me think this shld be 30 - 40) going forward

Northeastern:
Oil futures looking at a massive gap down; the postponement of the OPEC/Russia meeting from tomorrow to Thursday must have caused it.

This week should see a huge gain if that meeting results in a cut of at least 10m barrels.

. Oga NorthEastern. Im quite sceptical of dis move (cut) on oil price. 1st d probability of such cut without shale contributing to it is quite low. 2nd Shale contribution to the cut wld be limited if not totally hampered by its market structure. 3rd even if the cut materialise it wld only address d supply side while d problem with the demand side (coronavirus induced worldwide economic slowdown) persist. However all said i sincerely pray i am proven wrong for d sake myself and dis country

TGIF

Concert version


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qk2YLttXwGE

there might be cut to production (oil) truely but believe the 10 -15m barrel being touted by Trump at your own risk

Plus even if there is going to be any amount of cut we are still a long way away from it (at best 3- 4 weeks away),

The earliest cut that could impact oil market wld be as a consequence of some recent rig idling by shale and not a cut by Opec+ ( if at all possible, Opec+ is still some weeks away )


cc:Oracle ; OGG

onegentleguy:
Looks like what now remains to settling the 'oil war' is Saudi Arabia.
The US and Russia seem to have started a fresh romance towards an agreement.
Russia state owned oil firm Rosneft has just announced a deal to sell off its 100% stake in Venezuela in all 5 JVs plus its oil-field services companies, commercial and trading operations, on the same day that the President of both countries(Trump and Putin) had a phone chat ealier.

https://www.neweurope.eu/article/rosneft-sells-its-venezuelan-assets/
https://tass.com/economy/1137667

For emphasis; The matter about Rosneft was at the center of issues which lead to a series of sanction on Russia by the US.
Maybe Washington is now closer to removing sanctions on Moscow.

The Saudis must have to bend. ...they will.
As I stated here in the past, they will even feel more heat than the US and Russia.(see link to post; https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/5421#87434422)

Prior to this time, the Saudi economy has been deteriorating with several growth indices dealt a serious blow. Forget the low extraction cost. They will feel serious heat... Impact will be huge(the Nos are there to prove this)
No wonder they are now planning to sell a stake in their pipeline business to help shore up capital given the huge deficit that'll come with the current oil price slump.(the country already suffered an over 8% shortfall in GDP per capita in 2019)
Now they need to settle some massive payment, and they are strapped of cash.
https://www.pulse.ng/bi/finance/saudi-aramco-needs-cash-with-oil-prices-at-a-17-year-low-and-now-it-may-reportedly/5k7l3c5

The Saudis will feel serious heat !!
They must agree...

Some folks will make a kill from oil price. ...correction will likely be v-shaped and speedy.

Script still playing out just fine...

cc: @RabbiDoracle @robobo

. Chief the script play has finished na interlude we dey now. When the next play go start i dont know but what i know is that interlude by its nature is short

RabbiDoracle:
It looks highly likely to gain so.

And the reversal looks strong too.

What will push it, I do not know. But I am seeing it.

Only extraordinary News can e.g

Oil price recovery from news MBS/Putin/ Shale cooperation to cut output

FG / MPC (Naira fully floated / oil downstream full deregulation)

Sudden discovery of a drug/ vaccine for corona

RabbiDoracle:
Even the directors need the cash pass us. They need to increase their stakes before the FPIs come back.

ur head too correct

that was d reason Zenith nearly went on full bid (at this precarious time) the day the dividend was paid

onegentleguy:
...and what is this thing am hearing about AFPRUD accepting to pay the initially proposed 2019 YE final dividend of 70k but now swapping it as an interim payment in line with part XVIII section 379, part 1 and 2 of the CAMA(company & allied matters act), 2004.

Are there brokers or NSE stafers here that can help interpret this pls?
...I've never really followed up on that CAMA guideline.

It is well.

Might be becos it is being paid without an AGM, which is how Interin dividend are paid

if that is done, the net effect is only semantic as same wld be ratified whenever the AGM can hold

they shld be commended for being proactive/ creative instead of using the excuse of the no AGM not to pay d dividendor postpone same

RabbiDoracle:
Maximum fear.

This market looks like it could reverse after today. I hope I am wrong today.

Strong positive divergence.

My Oga

i doubt if technical still functional as per NSE at this time (all indicators seems to have broken down because of the hysteria going on)

Only a drastic positive news (mayb from MPC) cld make d divergent right

remember ours is not scripted (unlike yonda own) we are only but a corollary effect of d scripted

RabbiDoracle:
My point is Zenith at 10.85 (last low) has not been seen again. Until that happens, then I will know that there is a possibility of a lower low.

It closed 11.85 on Friday. I will wait to see if it can be offered at 10.70 today (full offer).

ok clearer. I doubt that though, cos while things are still bad and seemingly getting worse, however unlike during the first panic, the outlook (mid term) seems clearer when compared to the first panic. Thanks

RabbiDoracle:
I don't think he is causing panic. Probably he is looking at the worst case scenarios.

Like in the country where I live, schools and businesses have been closed, embassies closed, banks work like half day. There is a limit to gatherings.

Some businesses are regarded as essential and must open. Pharmacies, supermarkets, banks, fuel stations. Only non-essential businesses could be told to close.

Once this start to happen all over Nigeria, expect a hit on Q2 2020 data in all companies.

Advice : separate investment money from upkeep money. Everyone should have emergency fund they can tap into for upkeep.

[b]The last 2 weeks low in banks is yet to be seen again. [/b]People should stick to buying low. Don't chase price. I love panic sellers.

Chief meaning repeat/reset?

onegentleguy:
Feelers are that near term coy AGM' may no longer hold as scheduled, given the recent spate of orders from the FG and several state gov't to restrict movement and large gatherings as a precautionary measure against covid-19.
...infact the likelihood that most AGM' shall be postponed is now near 1.

Pls do well to be guided accordingly.

cc @ robobo

Thank you at least one can plan accordingly instead of no news on d thing since

onegentleguy:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-20/nigerian-central-bank-starts-uniform-exchange-rate-for-naira

"Nigeria’s central bank will migrate to a single exchange rate for the naira by collapsing the multiple exchange rate policy that determined the value for the local currency, people with direct knowledge of the matter said.
...the West African nation will merge the official rate, the rate for importers and exporters and rate for foreign-exchange bureaus, among others, according to the people who asked not to be identified because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the matter."

...things are beginning to get really interesting !!

cc @ RabbiDoracle, @robobo

it cld b a major game changer if they go all d way (convergence of all fx windows) though d impact might be delayed for a
while because d FPI might tarry a little to see hw dey intend to play d game just like when dey introduce I & E window and d impact wasnt felt in d market (NSE) for sme few weeks after its introduction

RabbiDoracle:
So they are devaluing it for FPIs?

This could be seen as a Sell for some FPIs because they will be wondering how many rates the country will have : CBN official rate, NAFEX rate, black market rates, FPI rate. Do we still have interbank rates or it is now at par with NAFEX rate?

you read my mind perfectly

pus some FPI wld even see it as tokenistic and an opportunity to quickly bail out before a major one is done

Recall that during the 2014/ 2016 d peg was first moved to from 150 / 160 to 190/200 before some few months / abta year later the big move of 200 to 350 was done

onegentleguy:
AGM' may likely hold. ...but with high safety measures in place.

https://punchng.com/nse-advises-firms-to-adopt-safety-measures-for-agm/

Understandably, most folks may not wish to attend as the "stay at home" talk gathers more momentum.
That said, as long as an AGM holds, there'll be approval for dividend distribution no matter the No of persons(shareholders) that attend it.
Voting will be done with any available attendees, even if its just 20 !!
And those who stayed back at home will give their E-approval.(who doesn't like free money)

ok boss my mind don dey at rest now

cos nothing must happen to ANY EXPECTED CASHFLOW at this kind of time

My people nobody is talking about how this COVID 19 go take affect AGM oooo and ultimately dividend payment because i think without AGM legally dividend cannot be paid particulalry for thos AGM coming up within d next 2 weeks