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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 9:46am On Mar 11, 2020

RabbiDoracle:
Brent has a possibility of breaking 27.

Im wondering what news will cause this to happen.

I think that is the period of maximum fear.

spike in coro in US and it lethality

US closing down a major city (new york / washinton/ houston/ calif)

A major politcal figure down with coro

Russia response to the oil price war

Fed playing chicken by not lowering further

combination or all of above

choose ur poison

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 3:38pm On Mar 10, 2020

bigjay01:
looking up at $37? really?

new normal?

Oga BigJay

you shld know beta noww

Russia had not responded yet and if u take into consideration that Russia target is really shale (not Saudi) and also that Shale (WTI) doesnt really get to hurt until sub30 then you shld know that their response wheneva it comes wld still plunge brent to between lower 30 and higher 20s and in addition might keep it in this range for an extended epriod of time (say 6 month / 12 months) so that the shale hedges can wear out.

when is what i dont know but from above you can be rest assured that we are already at the new resistance for brent (i.e. upper 30s) while the new support wld be as stated above (i.e. lower 30s / upper 20s)

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 11:31am On Mar 10, 2020

stcool:
Zenith 13.05
UBA 5.65

Until GTB goes below N10...I wont buy anything!

Wake me up to BUY when GTB hits N10

see 200m offer disappear from Zenith without any sell

i laugh in swahili

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 10:44am On Mar 10, 2020

Agbalowomeri:
It has to be zenith or GTB
Not that I am buying though
But it is good to monitor those two
Everyone is waiting for the first move Lol

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 7:48pm On Mar 09, 2020

locodemy:
Will you still panic when you see Brent at $25 tomorrow?
The worst will come tomorrow and nobody should be tempted to sell anything else you will sell and missed and not be opportune to buy back lower until April/May.

Panic? why?

the Merrier the Better

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 7:28pm On Mar 09, 2020

RabbiDoracle:
It is the russian response tomorrow that will show the direction. They may give discount far greater than that of Saudi and oil Market will tank 40% in 30 minutes .

Funny enough, Trump said he loves the low oil price.

yes by 2moro 50% of the war wld already have been fought

then the remaining 50% wld be fought on a piecmeal basis

i cant w8 to see Russia response. however im already looking at a max of $25 for brent 2moro

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 5:48pm On Mar 09, 2020

TLAX:
Nothing to fear o. Just observing with no skin in the game.

I know say you de pray for it to play out so that you go load. It won't.

My Oga its not praying to. i had neva believe in others being miserable for me to make money

im abt 60% in the market however i am just somebody who is brutally honest with himself

its better to die once than die a miilion times (via unnecesary delay)

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 5:13pm On Mar 09, 2020

Agbalowomeri:
Hope dem get enough cash at hand sha

my oga no play rough play oooooooooooooo

na dat wan go start original gobe ooooo

lollllllllllllllll

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 5:10pm On Mar 09, 2020

TLAX:
Hmmm...i hope this scenario does not play out. Its possible but probably won't play out.

My Oga why are you afraid

let it play out nowwwww

lolllllllllllllllllllllll

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 4:28pm On Mar 09, 2020

RabbiDoracle:
I didn't say Putin will prostrate o.

A delegation of nations (Nigeria, Angola, Venezuela etc) that are affected by the oil decline will go and beg Chief Putin. They will go and meet Otunba MbS.

Abeg and prostrate.

ok i now understand but Putin wld not want to budge for now until his main reason ( a dent on the shale play) is at partly fulfilled

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-09/oil-crash-saudi-arabia-s-price-war-worked-once-but-may-backfire

see teh opening statement "" In a war of attrition, the winner isn’t the force with overwhelming power, but the one with the greatest capacity to sustain damage. ""

1 Like 1 Share

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 4:23pm On Mar 09, 2020

Agbalowomeri:
Are these breakeven crude prices?
I am not sure you have the right figures
The last I know, Saudi breakeven was less than 20

i dont mean production cost

i mean in term of how price impact the national budget

example Nigeria adopted 57 but with that we are still going to run deficit which means we need price at higher than 57 for the budget to be balanced

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 4:17pm On Mar 09, 2020

RabbiDoracle:
Russia has released funds to support their economy from the oil crash.

$150b.

We will see what the Saudis will do.

Today is holiday in Russia, so we will see what they will do tomorrow and how much discount they intend to sell oil.

Once the gidigbo starts, it is for us to send delegation to Putin to go and postrate.

My Oga Putin wld not prostrate

There is balance of power on both side

break even (per current year national budget) for Russia is lower 40's and with a 570b reserve you can bet that it wld take some time before the abot $10 loss difference start pinching

break even (per current year national budget) for Saudi is lower 80's and with a 501b reserve we can see who wld first feel the pinch with abt a loss of $40 per barrel

MBS doesnt understand anything his gragra is too much (he is like current POTUS), acting before thinking

My opinion is that strategy wise last week was not well managed by the Saudi (MBS) and it wld haunt them for a long time

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 4:05pm On Mar 09, 2020

stcool:
It seems the Saudi Prince is still counting his $...

Currency market is fvcked up at the moment.

The Saudis started this... Only them can stop this one.

Funny how ECB is just watching... Very little they can do.

Weak $ is good for the FED & TRUMP

Dont make a threat you cant fulfil ---

Expect a long drawn oil price war (say 12 -- 18 month)

Russia call the bluff, Saudi threaten to bring everybody back to the table

my brother it is now more than oil-- it is now that of National Pride so none of the two side wld come to the table for now

the third leg of the oil market (i.e. shale) is also ready for a long drawn battle (via hedges)

so as i said earlier prepare for a long drawn war

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 3:43pm On Mar 09, 2020

Marlianvestor:
Market currently trading in fear... No need exacerbating it and postponing the doomsdays by not opening tomorrow. Let the market open and let the fear wriggle out naturally and then....

my broda ur head dey dir

let the market open 2moro and have 10% loss across board

then same thing next 2moro

im sure by thursday / friday calm wld come

then we can restart again

for emphasis im 60/40 stock/ cash so not fearmongering

what cld definintely be worse than this is to postpone the evils day by closing the market

so let the crash come fast and furious so we can get it done with

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 3:12pm On Mar 09, 2020

locodemy:
Something is totally wrong.Nse need to pause trading tomorrow unless they have extra ordinary plans.

Me as a Jijo trader is even afraid of today's trading.

Loco dir is nothing wrong

Behavioural Finance say this is how it wld be

Go look at History of Financial Market for guidance

There is storm now but calm wld surely come soon

the only thing that matter is for you to ensure that you are still standing by the time the storm finishes and if possible also had moved forward a little bit

for analogy envisage a situation you are caught in a sandstorm for guidance

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 3:01pm On Mar 09, 2020

RabbiDoracle:
That was why the futures froze.

The fall was terrible.

Most EU indices falling around 7% or over it.

Brazil Bovespa losing 10%.

Oscar should not open tomorrow o

i beg Oscar should open and let Zenith fall to 13.05 (the lowest for the day)

the earlier we get this shit done, the beta for everybody

2 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 2:44pm On Mar 09, 2020

RabbiDoracle:
Bro,

It seems US futures circuit breakers has been triggered o.

No trade going on the US futures.

My Oga that wld surely be a positive

it if its trigerred then it means d worst as envisaged by the SYSTEM had been breached

then the SYSTEM wld surely step in to calm nerves

as i stated earlier

WHERE IS THE SAFETY

As for me and my household d its not ARMAGEDDON yet

so i wld take it that i had beeen dropped in the desert with no timepiece, so the next guidance is how long my shadow is and the direction of the wind for guidance to know how to proceed.

Selah

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 1:11pm On Mar 09, 2020

At times like this i wld implore folks to look at fundamentals for guidance

example if you have no watch and u a suddenly drop in the middle of a desert how do u tell which time of the day it is? u look at the sun and possible the intensity of the heat and possibly how long ur shadows are, these are the fundamentals of time keeping

Example wld Brent sell for $0 obvious no

wld Brent sell for $10 yes but probability very low (say 10%)

wld Brent sell for $20 yes but probability low( note that i had remove the very, so let say 20%)

so in essence hw far wld d Nigeria Economy suffer if brent sell for say $30 (which is highly probable) as an example. For guidance anchor for this year is $57 that give a loss of $27 which is abt 47%, so in the absence of any better guidance you can then extrapolate teh 47% loss to the profit/ dividend each coys made as per the last Audited statements, from this u can eke out possible valuation if the $30 hold then this valuations can then guide the possible price ranges.

so people should know that it is not ARMAGEDDON yet and we wld get to a point that prices wld start making sense again but till then it is to thy tent o isreal

4 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 10:46am On Mar 09, 2020

RabbiDoracle:
Bros, there is nothing wrong with fundamentals of most company around the world.

Investors are pricing in lots of things right now with the coronavirus and oil price issues. They are even pricing in US and global recession. The US 10 year yield is pushing the Fed to do further cut.

There is flight to safety first.

But i keep asking

WHERE IS THE SAFETY?

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 3:37pm On Mar 08, 2020

RabbiDoracle:
What we don't know is how long this oil price slash will last. Remember Russia hardly backs down in any challenge.

If it stays through summer, it will knock lots of economies into recession.

Just wait and buy at ridiculously low prices.

my oga while doing d waiting it is beta to flee to safe haven (greenback) with the little cash i have been able to scurry out of d market

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 1:12pm On Mar 08, 2020

RabbiDoracle:
Hold cash. Prices will still get cheaper.

Buy 1 and pack all the remainder for free.

my oga with d strong thing wey russia do for Friday. Na to thy tent o isreal.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 6:46pm On Mar 02, 2020

Agbalowomeri:
could be a pullback to go lower
could also be a bottom; it's a strong support

There is a high probability the support would hold (at least for the week)

next opec+ meeting is March 5-7 (barely 3 days away)

Russia (the major dissenting voice) seems to be realigning to a cut (Putin body language last week not minding his bragaddo that they are comfortable with price at 50 cos thier budget benchmark was 40)

Plus US rig count is going down (3 weeks consequtively) and u shld also expect the corovirus to also affect the supply / supply chain of oil too (though at a slower pace than it wld affect demand)

but if Opec+ does not cut / extend current cut then na to run 4 by 400 race cos then oil wld surely dance konko below to lower - mid 30

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 3:53pm On Mar 02, 2020

I just love the discussion going onnn

grin

The recommendations is you shld keep ur cash because of the scourge

but as Prof said some few nights ago

u should remember that if the scourge continue unabated your cash wld also loose value because it wld be useless

so my admonition is whether you are in cash or other assets,

firstly take precautions (and continuosly ensure same) so that the scourge doesnt come near ur or your household,

secondly hope / pray that a solution (vaccine or effective drugs) is found soonest (because if not then we are all screwed eventually whether precautions / cash / other assets. Also the longer a solution is found the more the global damage (economical / human e.t.c) .

thirdly decide which assets class (or an optimal combinations thereof) suites your temperament and hold in that order so that you dont lose ur mind before u lose ur assets.

3 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 4:24pm On Feb 29, 2020

RabbiDoracle:
No wahala bro.

This mail u pple a sharingggggggggg

There is God ooooooooooo

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 8:15pm On Feb 28, 2020

DeRuggedProf:
A point will be reached by this Corona Virus that even your cash will become useless. What is the value of cash if all producers of goods and services shut down. My people, let's use our white stuff beyond this evil virus.
Some people might be scheming all of us already.
How are we not sure there is an effective cure, but the evil men are not done with SHAKEOUT?

The first bold cld be use as a guide. Gold a supposed safe haven is also loosing. at this moment the major asset that is appreciating is US 10 year Treasury, which if this continue wld also halt appreciation following the first bolded from Prof

As for the second bolded from Prof. Personally i dont believe conspiracy theories, my take is that this Pandemic is not being engineered, Rather it is a breakout which we shld all hope be brought under control (either through effective drugs or vaccine) as soon as possible. because if not in the long run then we are all in trouble whether you in cash stock gold treasuries bond e.t.c.

2 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 5:23pm On Feb 26, 2020

DeRuggedProf:
This is why the safest buy IF YOU MUST BUY is WAPCO.
Coming from a very bad position, the share price is the safest.
Any little progress will look MASSIVE in comparison.....
The power of RELATIVITY.

NB: I have long term units here. Keeping them like bonds, until cash misses road into wrong hands that stumble on the shares. ...

Nice perpective my oga

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 5:22pm On Feb 26, 2020

mendes911:
They all complain of glut but they still wouldn't reduce cost of cement.

Alhaji might be dumping this business once the refinery kicks off.

My Oga typical of all businessmen u dont expect them to reduce price just like that until they have exhaust all other options (see as Alhaji keep promoting it as an alternative to bitumen in road construction)

However last last someone wld have to let the cat out first (im suspecting BUA) then the other wld follow suit although we might still be a little far off that (say 2 years) cos alterantives (one of which is mentioned above) is presently being explored.

As for Alhaji leaving, i dont think so (cos of size / sentiment) as u can see its African expansion which had not subsided. Although ultimately he might whittle down his share of it (a la the buy back and some manouvers to list in international centres (london / new york e.t.c) that had been ongoing for abt 2 - 3 years)

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 5:02pm On Feb 26, 2020

DeRuggedProf:
Yet to read it. Oracle told me Dangcem won't have an impressive result.....

Let's look deeper, something good may be found in it.

Its not only Dangote

the Cement Sector in general

Competitive industry analysis wise the Sector is just entering into the same cycle that the Brewery sector is half way gone (though causative factor might differs)

The sector is moving gradually away from being a price giver to a price taker

Efficiency and Muscle wld matter more as we go forward

those in BUA / Wapco shld take note however Dangote situation cld have been worsen by the goverment hell bent on ending loophole in the country tax system (e.g. Pioneer Tax)

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 3:13pm On Feb 26, 2020

Marlianvestor:
Love double-digit yield! Cool way to pay yourself an annuity - Imagine investing say N100m on FGN bonds @ 12% net equals N1m monthly income, that would conservatively take care of all your bills....

Brother ur head they dir

Na to locate the N100m be d koko

na d journey i been dey for more than 2 decade noww but the destination dey be like mirage but no retreat no surrender

when i finally get the destination i no go even look FGN bond na to do Eurobond (8%) so that head or tail (devaluation wise) i win

but my brother that destination ehnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn na wire

2 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 1:23pm On Feb 26, 2020

mendes911:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/29032_FBN_HOLDINGS_PLC_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_FEBRUARY_2020.pdf

thank u appr8

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 1:09pm On Feb 26, 2020

my people please someone should bless me with the FBNH unaudited full year result

thank you

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 6:34pm On Feb 24, 2020

mendes911:
Chief, leave Oga Agba oooo. He knows what he's doing. He saw this long ago and printed it here, alongside his jokes. Once one can decipher when he's joking, you are good to go.

His post about a hammer last week was ended with a smiley, he wasn't serious about it.

yes i no Agba style and saw that post when he made it

he was talking abt weekly

though i think the double bottom on the weekly itself is also double

so na the confusion wey wan scatter me be dat (as i be prymary 1 student for this area)

but he is talking about the weekly

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