₦airaland Forum

mendes911:
He should jeje reduce his price. This #17 no pure again. Whatever happened to #16.

Oga Mendes na u dey talk like this

u be veteran now

d guy went as far as 16 abt two/ three moons ago,

yday d lowest he went was 17.40

today before midday he had done 17.15 already

im sure he wld do lower 17-17.05 b4 d week close cos the remaining amount to dat range is 65m which is just a fraction of the 300 he just dropped

robobo:
who did that wicked dumping on Zenioth just now?

Deprof is it our chinese friend??


hmmmm Ewu be ni oko Longe oooo

Another one

who did that wicked dumping on Zenioth just now?

Deprof is it our chinese friend??


hmmmm Ewu be ni oko Longe oooo

mendes911:
Dangote Flours.

http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/28118_DANGOTE_FLOUR_MILLS_PLC_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2019.pdf

I hope there's no going back on this deal before Olams gets scared and runs away.

Payment commences from November 8.

TLAX:
That was all of it. It was a mail from one of StanbicIBTC staff.

ok trhank u

robobo:
God Bless you plentiful

quite insightful

Hello Oga TLAX / Aremso

i would appreciate if ypu oblige me with the full treport

Oga Aremso i wld appr8 if u can also help out

i tried gettiong it from the EFG Hermes website cut ld not apprenmtly because im not a client/ customer

TLAX:
Possible answer to bolded below

Conclusion: the sentiments are consistent across board

Response 1
You're shaking a broken table
Equity isn't a generic name in Nigeria. Nah not even a noun. As a name describes attributes and character of the underlying. PFAs have bought something hard to describe. The last 10 years has produced significant negative returns save for year 2013 and 2017. 8 solid years of losing money not in single digits but mid and upper teens.

If the money was left in cash it would have been better. If we add inflation considerations, your guess isn’t going to get there. You also missed the blatant destruction of value by unexplained, unexpected shut downs and nationalization of how many banks? Oceanic bank, Intercontinental, Bank PHB. Notably there is that special oil and gas company that is always raising money, Skye Bank - What did PFAs get? Zero. These were banks that had big 4 audits and CBN affirmative reports 3 months before an overnight take over. Check in and see what the industry lost
PFAs are fiduciaries and will not ignore the concerns of the plan owners who already live with the hope that these monies will amount to something. It's not risk-aversion but common sense. How do you stay invested in an asset class that drops to zero overnight . When PFAs complained about small trades (market manipulation) affecting portfolio valuations what happened? 2 nondescript brokers will trade 10,000 units of a stock and make a single PFA lose 2bn in one day. Is that a market?
There were 120 banks and over 300 insurance companies in this country at some point , where are we today. Has the market grown or we should just continue to plow in? Trust is a precious commodity. Once broken, in any relationship, It will take a long time to rebuild. That's happened in this market and unfortunately not being looked at.

Response 2
Greetings and good to read your write up as always.I asked the question after reading through; what exactly is the answer you are expecting to your question?
Where should the loyalty of PFAs lie? To the market or their RSA holders? I would say to RSA holders/members of course.
Do you Invest Longterm to destroy value or to grow value? Are Nigerian Equities positive for LT investors or value eroding? Look back 10, 15 years and you will come to the same conclusion that the majority of Names on the NSE are value destructive for a Long term Investor. Look at the 10 year look back that was published recently showing that only a few names outperformed inflation and devaluation, over the 10 year horizon; one banking stock – Guaranty Trust Bank, FCMG – Nestle Nigeria, two Agriculture Company – Okomu and Presco….
Also, we have found out that the so called equity premium does not exist for most names in Nigeria; certainly not in the last 15 years.
You raised the question on whether Fixed Income is risk free? The professionals know that nothing is risk free; not even US Treasury!!! However, there is the believe that if you are a Naira investor, and Nigeria does not implode or explode, the Federal Government will print money to settle Naira bonds/Treasury bills obligations if it needs to. Euro Bonds holders may not have such consolation.
I am not sure therefore that Fund Managers should put clients’ money at risk, just because they want to be or be seen to be LT players. This behavior will subsist until the Macros, the fiscal and the monetary line up, and rational analysis supports playing Long term. Till then……..
Anyway, I always enjoy your writes up, and I like the emotion behind them.

Response 3
For most PFA’s there is also concern that you could be penalized for performance below industry average. As result, if you are being measured against peers that have little or no equities (and you are heavy on equities) the possibility of having returns below peer average is high…this could come with penalties. I even think things could worsen once the transfer window opens…as managers may be under pressure to deliver short term returns.

From An Equity Salesman

God Bless you plentiful

quite insightful

Jejebabaa:
So this is what Agba is trying to avoid

No matter how great a company is or how amazing their earnings, a bear market is like a hurricane, it damages all boats regardless of how great they are. Defense is the best policy until price action finds key support and makes higher highs.

----Steve Burns

while im not a TA guru, this quote is quintessential and classical, the hurricane analogy says it all about a BEAR market it

aremso:
Nigeria IMI is trading at 4.8x 12m, thus making the country assets cheaper than ever a Fund Manager EFGHermes has said in what it called Nigeria Strategy note to investors. It said that Nigeria assets are on an all-time low. Our analysts forecast 14% earnings CAGR for 2019-21e with non-banks’ earnings recovering strongly in 2020 after a difficult 2019, and a 2019 of 10 per cent (11.2% for banks). Despite this, policy uncertainty makes it very difficult to become bullish. The latest government moves include the impossible-to-enforce closure of land borders to all trade and the CBN’s increase in minimum LDRs to 65%.

The latter policy may support earnings growth for stronger banks, but it is hard to reconcile policies that force private sector lending with those that severely restrict trade. These factors keep us UW on Nigeria relative to FEM peers – our preferred stock remains GTB, whose 3Q19 results demonstrate its ability to generate solid returns through thick and thin. We remain cautious on non-financials given valuations and current macro settings, with Nigeria Breweries being our preferred non-bank name. Flow data shows that foreigners have been net sellers for much of the year, totalling $106m YTD, though foreigners were net buyers of $16 million in August when MTNN was added to MSCI indices. More surprisingly, local pension funds have kept cutting their exposure to equities after a regulation change in early 2019 that eliminated minimum allocations to variable return assets. The falling equity share in pension AUMs is not just about poor market performance – comparing the profiles of equity AUMs and total returns from the NGSE Index suggest that pension funds are either: i) allocating no fresh funds to stocks, despite strong flows into pension funds N681 billion in 12 months ending June 2019; or ii underperforming the local index by a wide margin.

We understand foreigners’ reluctance to engage. However, even given high yields on government paper, we are surprised that locals with LT NGN liabilities are shying away from inexpensive stocks that offer good dividend yields and the potential for LT capital gains. We believe this could be because current incentives for pension funds do not reward managers for outperformance. Meanwhile, investors are asking again about the outlook for USD/NGN – almost unchanged for over two years – after the recent reserve burn. Current gross reserves of $40.0 billion (mid-October) are down $4 billion from the 2019 high, though they are still equivalent to a respectable nine months of imports. The fall in reserves seems only partly due to portfolio outflows: CBN data shows foreign holdings of CBN OMOs – the main carry trade vehicle – down just $600 million from their July high of $17.23 billion at end-August, though anecdotal evidence hints at a bigger outflow $2 billion.

We had wondered if the CBN was allowing USD swaps with local banks to lapse, contributing to the reserve burn, but the recent drop in banks’ NFAs appears to rule this out. Recent reserve and NFA declines likely have as much to do with the falling trade balance (latest 12m sum down to$10 billion in July 2019 from U$18 billion a year previously. Portfolio flows may still be a challenge in the near term: $15.4 billion in OMOs mature in the current quarter, around $5.3 billion of which may be foreign-owned (using August CBN data as a guide to total foreign OMO holdings). Maturing OMOs will have to be financed with rollovers or reserve/NFA drawdown. We note that previous stock market rallies have been associated with NFA growth and significant pressure on reserves and/or NFAs could mean another leg down for this already-inexpensive market. Meanwhile, the importance of portfolio investment for reserves mean that policy rate cuts, that could support equities, seem highly unlikely this year.

Hello Chief

God bless you plentiful for this

it was full of insight and hard question,
e.g August surge in foreign flow largely MTN driven (though it still doesnt explain that of September or could that be as per Airtel)
why are PFA not inclined to the equity market despite near certainty of outperformance in the long term
reconfirmation of the fact that NSE (rise & fall) is deeply tied / correlated to foreign inflow (NFA) e.t.c

whats d source please

mosbus:
8am-6pm

saturday only or inclusive of sunday?

Hello Mosbus

what is ur opening hours on weekend like?

Oga BBM

Kindly help with Dangcem and Zenith technicals for daily/weekly and monthly

robobo:
Sincerely sir the bull are around but people would be mistaken to think it would be as strong as 2017 / early 2018 cos the macro does not support that, not with a tepid 2% GDP growth (the equity markey is a forward predictor and it feeds very largely into GDP growth rate) and heavy fiscal deficit which are financed via money market that had been acting as a vortex sucking life out of the equity market. Like i told Oga Oracle some moons back funds had not ceased to enter the country since d equity downturn started in early 2018 what changed from then till now was that those funds were largely going to the money market space (check FSDH analysis of foreign fund flow for last 4- 6 quarters in Monday businessday for insight)

my take is that if time is factored in, the equity market is presently more enticing than the money market (read UBA / Zenith Access at circa over 10% div yield for 6 month which annualised comes to over 20% compared to best effective yield in money market space of 14-15%) hence the funds flow towards the equity market we are currently witnessing. however i would expect this to tank as the div yield effectively move down towards 14-15% annualised (i.e. at the point which prices gives div yiled of of -6.5 - 7 % yield e.g UBA at 7.5-8.5 with expected gross dividend of 65k and net of 58k time horizon for same wld be d next 4-5 months

These are my personal take and what currently guides my decision however as a flexible animal these guidance might change if the drivers change (i.e. GDP growth rate / foreign funds flow pattern / size & financing pattern of fiscal deficit).

https://www.abokifx.com/news/investment-trip-to-lagos-searching-for-dividends-africa-business-insight

Good read with lot of insight

Validate some of my thesis above

my take still is whatever/ whenever bull wld surface it wld be tepid and not last long becos of lack of strong macro to drive it

the sector available to play in very limited (largely banking and some few consumer conglomerates).

so we shld be very careful not to be carried away whenever the bull comes to town

DeRuggedProf:
When is Forbes doing its next ranking?
This info is critical for my timing here.....

i think its February though not too sure

im also interested

Oga Dipoolowo should know

Agbalowomeri:
Is the daily bowing to the cloud?
We watch

My Oga

we REALLY WATCH

i just hope the winter that is coming would not even be too cold for the WHITEWALKERS

mendes911:
Correct Sir.

Back to Stock business.

Do you believe BULLS are here or are we going to retest LOWS again?

Sincerely sir the bull are around but people would be mistaken to think it would be as strong as 2017 / early 2018 cos the macro does not support that, not with a tepid 2% GDP growth (the equity markey is a forward predictor and it feeds very largely into GDP growth rate) and heavy fiscal deficit which are financed via money market that had been acting as a vortex sucking life out of the equity market. Like i told Oga Oracle some moons back funds had not ceased to enter the country since d equity downturn started in early 2018 what changed from then till now was that those funds were largely going to the money market space (check FSDH analysis of foreign fund flow for last 4- 6 quarters in Monday businessday for insight)

my take is that if time is factored in, the equity market is presently more enticing than the money market (read UBA / Zenith Access at circa over 10% div yield for 6 month which annualised comes to over 20% compared to best effective yield in money market space of 14-15%) hence the funds flow towards the equity market we are currently witnessing. however i would expect this to tank as the div yield effectively move down towards 14-15% annualised (i.e. at the point which prices gives div yiled of of -6.5 - 7 % yield e.g UBA at 7.5-8.5 with expected gross dividend of 65k and net of 58k time horizon for same wld be d next 4-5 months

These are my personal take and what currently guides my decision however as a flexible animal these guidance might change if the drivers change (i.e. GDP growth rate / foreign funds flow pattern / size & financing pattern of fiscal deficit).

mendes911:
GBAM!

lol i laugh in swahili

Oga Migiet / Mendes u win

let us move on

he no dey bring money

na money we find come

Agbalowomeri:
But that was confirmed long ago na Lol

migiet = mendes


the chief MACER himself

Northeastern:
Aliko only sold DF because he has higher goals to achieve. The same way Ote$ sold FO to focus on power. In Oba's case, he has a complete hold of FBN and doesn't need money to increase his stake there. He wouldn't sell HF for any reason.

He has plenty cash at the moment but no where to invest. He recently bought the smallest PF by AUM after posting a higher bid than AIg.

exactly my tot also that is why i referred to it as flagship. though i wasnt aware of the PF angle u just brought in.

i pose the scenario / question to oga bigjay so he cld look at those scenario versus his gut feeling. Also i wanted to be sure i am not being blindsided

thanks appr8, so oga bigjay we go to the next one since HF is out of it

where lies the next outsize movement oin NSE?

bigjay01:
don't know why i keep thinking it will be HF

Spiritual aka Xtal ball analysts wey una

to help why dont we ask the question " what could motivate otudeko to want to sell what looks like a flagship"

possible answer

HF is becoming a very marginal player as consolidation in d industry is throwing up a clear two major (Flour mills and Olam) who both would control about 80% of flour market while the remaining 20% would only be available for other fragment players (more than 10 of which HF is only 1)


could he need funds to consolidate his hold in some other industry or venture into new ones (like Alhaji) e.g. a consolidated hold in his bank or saw tit bits of some foray into power generation of recent

does HF has any strategic asset (like access to port for DF) that wld warrant some outsize payment from a suitor?

answer to some of this question cld help validate / or reject your gut feeling

OBAGADAFFI:
This advice is timely .

Was thinking of jumping out of DF @ 15%

why would u

Anyway i love d distortion. it allows old men like us that cant struggle for a running molue to enjoy our modest ride on NSE

Im not in for fast and furious when i can get slow and steady. i cant come and go and get injured[b][/b]

owoblow77:
NSE just keeps presenting juicy opportunities everyday. ''May we live in interesting times'' Person just dey cherry-pick tire. ''The darker the berry, the sweeter the juice''. ''Lepa's are over-rated. Orobo, with big big bootay, na hin sure pass''. My people, na Orobo times wey dey ooo.

It might even be more robolistic in d coming winter

OakPearl:
How in this bear market, Union Bank is N7.65 and UBA with a healthy interim dividend is still struggling at N6.30 remains amazing.
#WondersOfNSE

my Oga dat wonder is really given a leg up by free float

currentprice:
^
^^
update

posted 2 week ago. with the latest report GTB is selling at good discount so I don't expect the stock to sell @ 20 soon

My Oga never say never

Though I'm buying also (in bits nd fits)

but imagine a scenario during the tough winter days (after interim had been paid but b4 3rd quarter/ full-year result) that stretch from mid/late September to mid/late November and the chief confusionist (Trump) just open his mouth and utter another gibberish that set the world market on edge (just like he did few days ago that heralded current sell offs) now add d FG also compounded it with its own false move (like the Presido giving order to a supposedly independent CBN) all at the same time then dat price might not be far fetched

That person wey break UBA wall to 5.50 no get mind at all hin suppose dey bulldose d wall dey go

now he don run back. den allow anoda wall come up on d same spot with potential of oda walls even in front of it

coward

Agbalowomeri:
I dey suspect say some people don see zenith results

pluto09:
O ga o....

Oga Agba Oga Mendes una no well oooo

Na for dis bear bear una wan kill person with laughter abi

currentprice:
it normal... pullback is expected today and tomorrow. we may see further sell off by next week

Yeah pull back cos of the Saudi rhetorics yesterday

if by next week there are no factuals to support the rhetorics u can be srest assured the downward trend wld resume

735i:
I no know where you for dey hear your own own oh. This na intel from top brokers and analysis of activities in the I&E window..

ok my Oga it is well was just wondering when dis pple go sell finish so that we can have some respite

735i:
The dance may continue awhile for GTB, Dangcem & Zenith. FPI's are offloading...it's the PFA's that are supporting this oja right now.

But Oga we don dey here d bolded since over two years now and NSE don do more trillions of turnover since den

The tin na bottomless pit? he no dey finish for the FPI hands?

just wondering ooo

OBAGADAFFI:
That is probably the plan

shebi dem don offer 2.10 and dem no wan collect

they must surely collect 1.10 las las

Nigeria i hail thee

bigjay01:
If the Access-Diamond bank transaction is anything to go by, then 0% deduction is expected

Thank you chief