₦airaland Forum

Nothing in there is cooked. Our agricluture sector data are solid. You minister of agriculture cannot tell you what Nigeria produces.He was last seen quoting IndexiMulli when asked to verify the amount of rice Nigeria produces. Yemi Kale of NBS - cannot tell you where he fishes agriculture sector. No Nigeria here can tell you that - there is nothing of worth exported - so it hard to verify.

Our agriculture for most case is world class. We are the world largest tea exporter. We are now Africa largest dairy sector - producing more than 5B liters of Milk from our high grade cows. We are Africa largest horticulture market - we produces tonnes of vegetables & fruits - sold in Europe supermarkts. We produce about 25% of all flowers sold in Europe. We are now one of world largest producers of some nuts.

We export I think nearly 4B dollars worth of agriculture.

That leave us with what we produce and consume internally.

We know how many bags of Irish potatos we produce.We know how many bags of maize we produces, how many tonnes of sugar or rice or wheat we produce. We also know how many sheep or goats or pigs or chicken we slaughter or produce.

Don't just shout cooked. Provide proof like I did.

theenchanter:
according to d mumu rvp, d guy will be like....their agriculture is 25% of GDP, so their agriculture is worth $20b, producing just tea n coffee.

Their GDP is cooked, mumu guy.

That is the only way - let Naira float on it's own - with their central banker occasionally intervening based on their monetary policy - but having such huge difference btw exchange rates is crazy - the arbitrage is benefiting a few banking & political elite in the forex business. Just imagine the margin on profits. Zero risk. You buy USD for 305 - and next day - sell it for 360. 60-105 naira profit selling each dollar.

Jonraid:
How should Nigeria deal with this? Should they leave the Naira exposed in the international market so that they can know it's real value?

They are old. Their SGR began way before ours but they are moving at snail pace. You know there is expressway - dual way - btw Ibandan & Lagos - that they'v been building since 1970s. A road a mere 150kms away.

The contractor - US's berger has had a town named after it - they've been there forever

tylann:
good development but they look old

There are actually 3. Central bank rate you only get if you know Buhari. The Bank rate you only get if you friends to the bankers. Both involve a lot of documentation on why you need dollars. Then there is the real exchange - the black market - where most Nigerian buy their dollars

https:///euro-to-naira-exchange-rate-in-black-market-today/ . The rate is around 410 nairas for a dollar.

You can imagine the amount of money people are making playing those 3 exchange rates. Arbitrage 101. You buy from Abuja's CBN dollars for 305. Then sale it at your bank for 360 or black market for even 450.

If you use the real exchange rate (black market) their nominal GDP crushes by 25% to something 250-300B. That is very close to their real GDP. But of course like you said - they will not allow market forces to determine the value of Naira - it will be a bloodbath.

Jonraid:
They will soon go the Angola way.Nigeria is finally down to what seems likes just two exchange rates; one is the official central bank rate of 305 per dollar, while the other is between 360 to 365 at the interbank and parallel market.


David Cowan, an Africa economist at New York-based Citigroup Inc., the world’s biggest foreign-exchange trader, called it a “devaluation by stealth.”

They will soon devalue the currency.They have devalued the Naira when they were in wars and also during some past world economic crises!

https://www.thecable.ng/nigeria-two-exchange-rates-naira-devaluation-needed-make-one

As long as pop growth exceed gdp growth - then it's kenya in 70s, 80s and 90s. It zero work. The throw in Naira continuing devaluation against the USD - and that is a double whammy.

For the country to grow - you need to control population.

Jonraid:
Nigeria's GDP per-capita fall is imminent!

https://www.dailytrust.com.ng/imf-warns-nigeria-over-falling-real-gdp-per-capita.html

Only about 8-10B - of 25B external loan - that we owe - are commercial - the rest are concessionary - low interest long maturity. Therefore there is no debt crisis.


We have nearly the same revenues - and you owe 78B dollars - we owe 56B. You know who has problem repaying.

Just check revenue to debt. Nobody cares about fake GDP to debt. You don't repay debt with GDP - you repay with gov revenues.

68816419:

From one of the article
"Analysis showed that Kenya, which has not grown its export earnings, is set to struggle to repay the maturing Eurobond in the next three years.

Kenya was added to the list of countries that had dipped into the international capital markets, having been issued Eurobonds worth Sh475 billion since its launch in 2014.

The debt service repayment has been made serious by the need to offset the Sh78.3 billion of the Eurobond in June this year."

Pop Growth rate. Kenya at 1.5%. Only Mauritus, South Africa and Botswana are growing lesser rate.

This is because Kenya has one highest contraceptive usage. This quite impressive because for most of 80s - Kenya was WORLD fastest growing - population wise- with fertility rate of around 8%. We have turned the tables by investing in family planning and population control measures.



Nigeria are 20th fastest growing - at 2.5%!! Their GDP growth rate for the last 3 or 4 yrs has not touched 2.5% - so their per capita is being eroded seriously.

Tanzania are 14th fastest growing - at 2.7%

Both have contraceptive usage of lower than 30%

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world-factbook/fields/344rank.html#KE

Kericho kenya - The tea town.

Kisumu City

Not even the preponderance of evidence will dissuade them from the own propaganda of grand delusion.

The giants of Africa simply cannot bring themselves to accept the fact that their country is a shit.hole. A zoo. A wretched cursed country that despite having most of arable land, incredible oil & natural gas resources, tonnes of iron ore, tin and all sort of minerals. Then add 200M people - huge human resources. There is basically nothing to show for it. Their cities look like no new investment has been done for quite some time - just really rusted ironsheet or really old buildings.

We are dealing with special breed of people who need detoxified of the gov feed propaganda.

Just30:
Have you ever met a poor man who is not proud of his ignorance before ?
Total banking asset in Nigeria is a mere 100 billion dollars
yet they want to rub shoulders with South Africa whos total banking asset is 400 billion dollars plus.

how can 200 Million people only have 100 dillion dollars

It is funny when an idiot call other people idiots. Why not use the internet to be a better person. Why are Nigerians so proud of their ignorance?

1) We are talking International Poverty Line. That now is around 2 dollars per day per person. I think as of now Egypt has zero. It was 1.3% in 2015. It was 2.3% in 2012.

2) Every country has it's own national poverty line. Norway, US and even Qatar has their own poverty line. Basically they would take the guys lying below certain income and declare them poor. In the US - you're poor if you're making less than 20K usd and would even qualify for food stamps and all sort of incentives.

obaaderemi:
Another nonsense from the roadside economist. There is no evidence of zero poverty in the link you sent. Why do you like lying like this? Besides, your data is old. Show us recent data. Like this report from UNICEF below which says Egypt has 30% poverty rate. Even a rich country like Norway still has people living below the poverty line not to talk of Egypt.

I don't see any density there. Even Nairobi slumscrappers have crazy density of 10 floor high rises than those. Nairobi will never compete with your slumpolis. Get used to it. Nairobi is competing with Jozi and Cairo.

Nairobi SlumScrappers have real intentisty
https://www.sde.co.ke/sdemedia/sdeimages/friday/ozkaruvw0khqtqj587890dfc1046.jpg

Kazikazi:
pwopwopwopwo...
After giving you a real 'density' now you r shifting goal posts? Anyway, Can you tell me who owns the over 30 floors towers in Nairobi?

Those are not even 10 floor buildings. Dar cannot compete with Nairobi. It should compete with Mombasa.

Kazikazi:
Are these 4 buildings?? Can you reach this density??
Dar es salaam is the largest city in east Africa.swallow that

Let talk about non-man made challenges. Ethiopia droughts for example. Political difference is not a excuse.

vaxx:
i am only explaining Ethiopia issue with you, which i know of very well. and as regards to Tanzania economy, you may need an expert on that

How is that an excuse. Did natural forces cause the civil war. Can Somalia 3oyrs late argue they are un-developed because of civil war - of course - but they caused and fought in that war. They were not invaded by bigger force.

Countries knows they need to avoid war of any kind to move forward. It not an excuse. Ethiopia did themselves in and are now crawling out of the hole - and I am glad they are crawling so fast.

vaxx:
That can't be taken out of the fact, the civil war contribute to the sluggish development of their economy. Ethiopia government become stable only from the past 26 years now unlike kenya..

They have the memory span of a warthog. We have to keep repeating the same things every couple of pages.

Kur17:
We have already gone through this and Nairobi have much more skyscrapers... Do you want us to go back there again

You'll never ran out of excuses. The strange country is Tanzania. It about twice Kenya and has 10m more people. More arable land and more resources. And has never had war or even romours of one. It very peaceful & has no ethnic politics. And yet it remain poorer than kenya.

In short - quit the double standards. Civil war is not natural calamity. It self-inflicted. Other countries agree to talk and resolve issues. Stupid countries go to civil war.

vaxx:
interesting,, Putting aside the very real human cost, war has serious economic costs – loss of buildings, infrastructure, a decline in the working population, uncertainty, rise in debt and disruption to normal economic activity whoch i think contribute to the sliggish development of Ethiopia. it has potential to have more bigger gdp than ethiopia due to population.

We have done this before. Lagos is slumpolis. Then sooner you accept the better for you.

https://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1775594

Update nov 2018

1. Cairo ----------------------------69------Egypt
2. Johannesburg incl. Sandton---66------South Africa
--Johannesburg-------------------59------South Africa
3. Durban incl. Umhlanga--------61------South Africa
4. Luanda--------------------------55------Angola
--Durban--------------------------53------South Africa
5. Nairobi--------------------------45------Kenya
6.Dar es Salaam------------------39------Tanzania
7. Lagos incl. EAC-----------------38------Nigeria
8. Cape Town----------------------33------South Africa
9. Oran-----------------------------32------Algeria
10. Pretoria------------------------24------South Africa
11. Algiers-------------------------22------Algeria
12. Abidjan------------------------15------Cote d'Ivoire
13. Maputo------------------------14------Mozambique
14. Addis Ababa-------------------12------Ethiopia
15. Kinshasa----------------------11-------D.R. Congo
16. Alexandria---------------------8-------Egypt
16. Kampala-----------------------8------Uganda
--Eko Atlantic--------------------8-------Nigeria
--Umhlanga-----------------------8------South Africa
17.Harare-------------------------7------Zimbabwe
17. Abuja--------------------------7------Nigeria
17. Casablanca--------------------7------Morocco
--Sandton-------------------------7------South Africa
18. Khartoum----------------------6------Sudan
19. Tripoli--------------------------4------Libya
19. Mombasa--------------------4------Kenya
19.Brazzaville----------------------4------Congo
19.Port Louis----------------------4-------Mauritius
20. Port Elizabeth-----------------3------South Africa
20.Antananarivo----------------------3--------Madagascar
21.Yaoundé-----------------------2------Cameroon
22. Windhoek---------------------1-------Namibia
22.Gaborone-------------------------1------Botswana
22.Douala------------------------------1-------Cameroon
22.Lome--------------------------------1-------Togo
22.Dakar--------------------------------1-------Senegal
22.Ibadan-------------------------------1-------Nigeria
22.Eldoret ---------------------------1--------Kenya
22.Pointe Noire------------------------1-------Congo

samsobo24:
you are an emblem and an epitome of total failure. Forgiveness schooled you about the total no of floors in Nairobi with Lagos.
What of the ones in EAC,what of the ones under construction

I wouldn't want to introduce arguments on that again because even on completion of the EAC ,it will have tall buildings than the whole Kenya

Look at the last pics I posted ,thats a section of Banana island, a residential estate in ikoyi

Every picture of the island has different buildings with different views of buildings and not like the regular Recycled old Nairobi CBD pics

Learn to reason before exuding futile,baseless talks

I don't see red soil. Maybe you should have your eyes checked.

Kazikazi:
Dar don't have a red soil
Pwopwopwopwo..

Even shitty Umoja seem to have more high rise building than Lagos.

Ethiopia has twice kenya land and population.

vaxx:
Dont you tbink it is dishonest to compare both country. kenya and Ethiopia. Ethiopia has seen more than 9 civil war. The number of wars aside, it has only had a functional Government for 26 years.

They don’t seem to be doing a terrible job anyway at present.

Yeap - it a competitor for Lagos and Kinshasasa for africa biggest slumpolis.

gallivant:
Dareslum, largest slum in East Africa and maybe the world.

www.nairaland.com/attachments/8468867_5402161425c8cf2a0aa7o_jpegf640fbb5a078b3a4b700a652ec1b7124


www.nairaland.com/attachments/8468868_800pxdaressalaamtanzania_jpega0ac1ba989250d827822aaf19dec2c96

There you go again with lies. Nairobi has more skyscrapper than Lagos. It has more high rise building than lagos.

This we long established. Nairobi has more skyscrapper (100ms tall) than lagos.

Nairobi has more 20 floor buildings than lagos.

Nairobi has more high rises (10 floor) building than Lagos.

You nigerians behave like you don't have any memory and keep looping!

You simply cannot believe that Kenya is way better than Nigeria in nearly all aspect...so you simply are impervious to facts.

samsobo24:
Not your master would want to compete in this context. Lagos alone has more skyscrapers and high rises than Nairobi


If I post 10 pics of Lagos,I tell you they are totally apart from each other.
All Nairobi buildings are packed together in any tiny place (CBD)

I posted different versions of cities in Lagos and not a tiny portion.

I van show 50 pics of the island and you wouldn't site any popular building looking closer or near at all.

Now calculate the total land mass of the island and calculate the total of Nairobi's two CBD and let me continue

All pics you posted,I can tell you that they are not too far or that they are the same place ,which is the CBD.

I don't think Victoria island or Lagos island CBDs were showcased in what I posted

So if I show you ikoyi and you see buildings like 20 stories,just don't think its a CBD
Lekki as developed as it is isn't a CBD but you still see high rises

Not everywhere in VI is considered CBD and yet you still see tall buildings around

All Lagos Skyscrapers and high rises are not concentrated on a Particular spot like filthy Nairobi

Look at those pics very well,Lagos tall buildings can't be found together. The whole island is still under huge development for skyscrapers and high rises.
Meaning Lagos skyline will be massive and crazy and virtually the whole island will be tall as heaven

see example

The usual danganyika joke. Now fish the World Report showing Dar real estate is worth more than Nairobi.

Kazikazi:
Reach this level...
Dar es salaam the largest city in east africa

Egypt - as of 2015 - only 1.3% were poor - 2.4 in 2012 - in 2018 it zero.
http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/country/EGY
Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% of population)
2.3% 2012 1.3% 2015

Nigeria - 2009 - 54% where poor.

Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% of population)
53.5% 2003 53.5% 2009

obaaderemi:
You've blurted more nonsense than any other person here.

yes that is one way to cross-reference. using niger or chad - if they were the same profiles.

Binikingdowm:
Niger republic is like northern Nigeria both environmental, culturally, religiously.

They are bigger than Nigeria with a size of 1,270,000 km2 (490,000 sq mi), and has a small population of Just 21 million people.

But northern Nigeria has a population of over 100 million people according to Nigeria media.

How is this possible?

Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana are very similar in nearly all aspect. The same north-south divide. The same economic profile. The difference are subtle.

We have established Nigeria will never and has never conducted census. And even if they did - we would still verify their data by cross-referencing them with third-party data sources.

Every Nigeria knows their population is inflated. The issues is by how much.

vaxx:
This is not a rigourous way to determine the amount of people living in non homegenuous society like Nigeria. Nigeria has a country is completely different from Ghana and kenya., and when it comes to moblie phone subscriber. you forgotten to take note of the accont that more than half of Nigeria youth are under 30. ( which means this is a high chance that there still exist an high percentage of Nigerians who are not mobile subscriber and likewise the old ages. you are not factoring all this inclusive

the trusted way to conduct census is the one btained by demographic technique called population projection.

countriy with highly non reliable vital registration and immigration and emigration records like Nigeria may even be underestimated.

Of course Egypt has zero poverty ( I mean international poverty - 1 dollar for absolute or 2 dollar expenditure per day per person for normal poverty) - and so do many other countries that have made poverty history. Obviously in every country - there is "poverty" - which in the US could be any family earning less than 20,000 USD per year.

Nigera GDP is Overstated. And yes it doesn't change facts on the ground. Nigeria will continue being poverty capital, with collapsed infrastructure, without electricity, with people trying to emigrate to better countries like Ghana, Kenya or South Africa.

It will not change the facts on the ground which is why nobody really take offence if Nigeria says they are 200M (instead of more credible 150M) with 600B economy (instead of 200B or around).

It doesn't change the facts on the ground. The whole point of stats is to like an exam - self-assessment. You can cheat in your take home test but the real test on the ground!!!

Ibrahimanis:
Egypt zero poverty? Wow.

Top dog in what? What has Nigeria benefitted from inflating it's GDP as you said? More FDI? No. More foreign investment? No. More attention? No. More more more? Then what?

Everyone knows Nigeria's GDP is largest in Africa except for some strange reason Kenyans who think they know more than NBS, IMF, WB, AFDB and every other financial institution out there.

Anyway believe what you want to believe. It doesn't really change the facts on ground.

Active subscriber base - get me the figures of 10 countries in Africa of same level of development - low middle income and see if you won't see a strong correlation.At this point of time I should expect around 100% correlation with pop. Of course most people have two or more lines....which takes cares of the children who don't have phones. For advanced economy - they maybe be around 150% of the population - because they got lot more phones - perhaps even for kids.

Ibrahimanis:
1. Actually it's now about 170m and counting.

2. You can't use that as reference because some phones use two SIM cards. No?

There are ways to knows if data is manipulated.

Let me give you one example. Number of telephone/mobile subscription.

Ghana pop is 28-30M. It's active subscriber base is 35M.
Kenya pop is 47-48M. It's active subscriber base is around 46.4m (4th Q of 2018).
Nigera pop is 200M. It's active subscriber base is 169m (4th Q of 2018)

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/12/nigerias-active-telephone-subscription-hits-169m/
Kenya Active subscribe base is 46.4M (https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/analysis/ideas/Ring-up-our-unique-subscribers-for-true-mobile-penetration/4259414-4929584-138mpmc/index.html)

Both these 3 countries have the same profiles - lower -middle class sub-saharan countries.

If you accept Nigeria pop is 200M.

Trust me it's mobile subscriber base would be 250-300M. That is because generally some people will have 2-3 lines.

We already know for a fact that it's population is manipulated and corrupted in the race to get bigger share of oil revenues & political seats at Abuja.

We can therefore conclude that based on mobile subscriptions it numbers are around 150M

That is not an idle guesstimate.

CIA/IMF/WB will never question any country - even Somalia - figures. Those are accepted as fait accompli. If you question any country figures then you'd need 3000 plus pages of arguments.

vaxx:
A sensible question there... Nigeria fragile political structure and the Federal Government poor budgetary allocation may be some of the reasons. The only credible statistics we have as of now it is the one from Nigeria bureau of statistics. why? because it is the only government official representative on such account. i agree to some extent, there may be some margins of error, but this error can not over balloon because of economical implication.

And if you go by the united nations data, Nigeria population is growing by 2 percent per year , so just do tbe calculations with a lesser gap of 20million from 2006 and see what we get, it should give you nothing less than 180 million people.

I know the formulae has been changing but for federal allocation (oil) and political seats ( I think number of mps) - states have every motive to inflate their population.

200M figure came from NPC insider. The 140M that was finally released was the compromise arrived by all states - basically they projected a credible figure that won't make the laughing stock and kept the % of the previous census intact.

if you give every state the allowance to add 1.5M fake nigerians - then roughly 50M nigerians are fake.

Why do I think Nigerians are 150M. I simply used the telephone subscribers. Those figures are around 140-150m . Kenya which is similar to nigeria has around 45-50M.

That is called CROSS-REFERENCING.

Ibrahimanis:
You can't just increase your population and get more allocation, it's not that simple.
https://economicconfidential.com/2007/04/economic-confidential-27/


200m Nigerians in 2006? And you said we are growing 3-4pct? And still 200m Nigerians 2019? Looks like someone's statistical capacity is limited.

I have nothing but pity for Nigeria. I'd be a little envious about a progressive country like Ghana.

obaaderemi:
Take your jealousy and grievances to the IMF and world bank and stop crying here where your tears are fruitless.