₦airaland Forum

tritritri:
Wat going on? ASI down 2.37% ...And no one is worried.

Bros, please keep worrying for us until early next week.. The grassroot asi went up today.

Yayira:
The fcmb guy got what he wanted.. close it @ 1.55

This is what makes charts interesting. See volume in the wrong direction.

Yayira:
Stanbic brokers were busy selling access early this year that they almost drown our Prof in the wicked sell off. If not for my lifebuoy, Only God know where Prof for dey by now..

Lol, did you see the 90M+ traded today? Serious hedging going on in Access o.

Mcy58,

Maybaker is forcing me to take up my rights.. What's up with all the pending rights.. Mbenefit et al..?

I have closed market for the day o. 'My young goat has given birth to an elephant sized goat'.. farm thinz

onegentleguy:
At 1st glance, GREAT RESULT !!

Using a mix valuation model and discounting for any and all possible risk, CAVERTON should sell for NO less than N6.10 !!
...which presents a over 208% MoS/gap from the current trading price of N1.98 !!
CAVERTON is presently the cheapest quoted coy on the NSE based on valuation !! ...The VALUE behind the price screams of only one thing; which is ACCUMULATE !!
I have since given my verdict on this coy.

But then again due diligence should still remain ur 1st priority.

Thanks.

kolaish:
EPS of 48k as against 36k. Good one.

cc: onegentleguy

Fair price sir?

veecovee:
Dearly beloved CP, you are trying anyway. But this OGG has the qualities of a General Superintendent/Overseer.

I pray he'll soon serve the Lord in that dimension.

Veecovee, the 'polariser'.

Today is one day I crosscheck all my equities. When the optimism is at its peak..

Whatever that guy is doing with FCMB is more like offloading to me o..

phemmie06:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/23985_ROYAL_EXCHANGE_PLC._FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2018.pdf
pls what fruit is this

One of the forbidden fruits.

Try to tell CP or OGG to analyse this result and see their response..

DeRuggedProf:
He is building female hostels....

onegentleguy:
Yet another fantastic performance from TRANSCORP !!
...and yet another reason to 'camp with this fellow'.

At 1st glance, the result CLEARLY speaks for itself !!
I have since said that TRANSCORP is a strong BUY !! ...the stock was among the list of coys we mentioned here in the past.
With an over 115% increment in EPS, a spike accross all KEY revenue and earnings line, a gap up in ROAE, ROAA, GROSS MARGIN, NET MARGIN, EBITDA MARGIN, ETERPRISE VALUE, BVPS and EM, u do NOT need a soothsayer to TELL U WHAT U NEED TO DO !!
...those who know and understand, know what they NEED to continue to do.

But due diligence should still remain ur 1st priority.

Thanks for the insight, just that I don't buy Transcorp unless the market is generally bullish. The stock has punished me previously.

Any info about the Teragro and the OPL 281 sections?

Has Teragro been spun off completely and is the OPL thing stagnant?

talktokenny:
guys,how do you see FCMB @ N1.55 ? A good buy ? Holding period ...1year

Sir,

No one will give you the answer you want to hear. My take is that if you want to hold FCMB for 1 year, then wait for the Q3 result which will come anytime next month. Also, then everyone will start talking about it so you can make a more accurate 6 months decision.

longlife20:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/23977_STERLING_BANK_PLC._FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2018.pdf

After sharing apples, I guess it is time for grapes.

stcool:
The guy FA analysis tight... If you mix am with fxuser TA e go sweet the whole body

Bro, is this sugar rush?

Mpeace:
To me, access did not do badly. Its a fair result. Given the current price of the stock, its clearly cheaper than UBA, Gtbank, and Zenith.

Nice one for a stingy bank like Access. I hope they use their common sense to increase dividend this time.

Agbalowomeri:
Oga where you go school?

#Na Joke o

Community Grammar School, Ellisville, St. Louis County..

Funny thought,

A negative (-ve) PE is supposed to be lower than a positive (+ve) PE. I wonder why people don't jump at stocks with negative (-ve) PE.

onegentleguy:
At 1st glance, good but not a great performance from ACCESS. ...indicators showed a mixed performance.
As expected, Profit margin was majorly driven by trading gains from the fixed income space.
PBT actually went down by near 3.6% over the 9M period... however, a much lower effective tax rate helped aid their profit line by approx 11.5% to over 62.9B from near 56.4B in the corresponding period of last yr.
A few other KEY indices also saw a slight improvement but EPS actually droped by over 38% from N1.12 to 69k for the period btw July to September 2018 (Q3 alone)
However, this line together with the banks ROAE, ROAA and EM still prints of an improvement over the 9M period ended Sep, 2018.
In my opinion, management will need to rework their profitability line to push for a better earnings yield going into the last quarter of the yr.
But overall, the bank showed a noticeable growth in their TOPLINE.


Using a TTM EPS of N2.18 over an adjusted discount rate of 14% (I prefer to attach a 1% premium to a risk free rate of 13% given their current financial indices), Fair Value should compute as N15.50 !!
...which is an approx 82% discount to today's closure price of N8.50 !!... and so ACCESS remains a BUY from my end.

However, on a P2P comparison in the 1st tier banking space, i'll still prioritize UBA and ZENITH ahead of ACCESS... but ACCESS ahead of GTB and FIRST BANK given their current market prices. ...though this scale of preference can change as their prices swing either upwards or downwards going forward.
But that's just me... so not an interpretation to any sought of recommendation.

CAVEAT: Due diligence should still remain ur 1st priority !!

OGG Thanks a lot. I value your analysis greatly.

One clarification, is the EPS annualized? If not, then TTM EPS may have moved higher slightly.

currentprice:
In my own opinion based on the numbers reported ACCESS is the cheapest bank among tie 1 bank

Selling at 160 % discount.

Fair price from my bedsheet is N21 based on Q3 alone.

I pointed out this bank week ago as Bank to WATCH!!!

Cc druggedprof

Noted, thanks.

Funny reality is that Q3 results last for about 5 - 6 months so there is a good chance that half that price appreciation can happen before FY results is released.

can one say Access result is better than UBA?

Have they seen Access Bank results?

While studying NSEMPA comments, I'll just burst into laughter and my madam will be like..'what and who is amusing you?'

I'll be like: 'I wish I knew some persons in this forum. Who knows, they may be funnier in reality.'..

Cc OGOg

Agbalowomeri:
Where is that English man sef

. MIA

Who ever is working tirelessly on GTB to make it close in red should continue..

Mpeace:
When my diamonds went bad, he called me names, we joked over it and it passed. Now his wapco is going... and I cannot joke over it because of somepple who love to take panadol for other's illness.
The person being called is somewhere laughing, and waiting to take his turn in what has become a friendly practice here.
If you cannot read and pass, its your own problem.
Stop hallucinating over a post that doesn't concern you.
It is not ur ''foolishness or childishness''.
Take hold of your emotions and stop taking things too personal. You don't have to take your losses out on me.

How do you know she started loosing again or is it the former losses

kolaish:
1. Yes. Cutix OS will move from 880m units to 1.76b units (x 2)
2. The PE cannot remain the same again because the EPS will now be divided by the new OS.
3. To me, the fair price now should be hovering around 170k until the company releases the Q1 which will determine its present value (This is @currentprice area of specialization)
5. The management thought that the company is a bit bouyant to give both dividend and bonus. Subsequent release of quarterly result will determine if the management is right or wrong.

Thanks Kolaish. I will check out #4 myself.

swilo:
Sir OGG,

I have some questions, I have asked before but didn't get practical response:

1. will the OS double?
2. will the PE remain the same?
3. if question 1 is yes, is N3.40 FP with respect to the N1.85 post bonus issue?
4. if it were a stock split, how would it be different from this?
5. Lastly, why give dividend if the bonus is suppose to be an added advantage?

Please, use this CUTIX as a direct reference so it will be clear to me.

Thanks for all the responses Sirs, and OGG thanks.

onegentleguy:
With CUTIX I think it was marked down for a script issue (bonus) of 1 for 1 and a dividend of 0.20k today.
...which extrapolates it down from Fridays close of N3.90 to N1.85 !! The reason for the N1.85 opening price u see now.

The biggest LOSERS will be those who bought @ last week's 52 weeks high of over N4.70 (current 52 week high after mark down is now @ N2.37)
While the biggest WINNERS shall be those who manage to KEY IN @ any price no more than today's opening price. It sold for 1.84 today... though less than the required 100,000 block volume band.
CUTIX is fundamentally sound. ...very healthy. Current price still screams of a great gap/MoS against its true value !!
Using a TTM EPS of 052k at a risk adjusted rate of 15%, fair value should compute at NO less than N3.40 !! ...which presents a juicy near 84% discount from today's opening price of N1.85.

Those who know and understand, know what they need to continue to do.
But due diligence should still remain ur 1st priority !!

Cheers.

Sir OGG,

I have some questions, I have asked before but didn't get practical response:

1. will the OS double?
2. will the PE remain the same?
3. if question 1 is yes, is N3.40 FP with respect to the N1.85 post bonus issue?
4. if it were a stock split, how would it be different from this?
5. Lastly, why give dividend if the bonus is suppose to be an added advantage?

Please, use this CUTIX as a direct reference so it will be clear to me.

fxuser:
d thing about 52 week lows is patience ..

Mpeace:
You think it can go lower? Sorry Sir. My mistake

I remember using some funds from my excess crude oil account to buy some 50k stocks, at their all time low then thinking it cannot go lower. I was surprised what I saw when the 1k/20k rule was enforced..

Chibuking81:
As foreign investors bailed out, the money in circulation reduced, even the money that suppose to increase as a result of rise in crude oil price are been embezzled by public office holders, including those in presidency, governorship seat and others, most of them dump it abroad, some dig ground and dump it underground, the money is not rotating, no new company or factory build in Nigeria with those money, instead companies and factories are liquidating on daily basis.
The civil servants minimum wage has not been increased, instead wage bill of states are been reduced by number of retirees, resign and discovered guest workers.

Nigeria has turn to poverty head quarter. Civil servants money does a lot in the system for those who care to understand, business man perform well when civil servants are living well, as God being so kind I have tested both, business and civil service.

A man that consume four cartoon of indomie in two weeks will hardly comsume two now, a man that change clothes every month will hardly change it again even in three months, a man that change his vehicle tyre in 6 months, will manage the tyre for 12 months, and so on, we are living in the system, and the experience will tell you that many companies, especially those in consumers goods angle will loose heavily when compared with other years, we are on paper officially out of recession, but we are just really officially into recession

A bag of rice was sold for #8,000 when dollar was #180, now bag of rice is now #17,000 to #18,000
more than times two and dollar #360 and above times two of past few years, and civil servants some experience pay cut, while others salary remain stagnant.

Don't be surprise when companies start releasing bad result.
Bonanza period must come.
Change of government next year is inevitable and unavoidable
New government will bring positive change, through restructuring with good policy.
Then bull will return.

All this did not start yesterday Sir Chibuking!

Why will someone buy indomie when 1 carton of indomie cost more than 2 basins of garri?

Why buy rice when the equivalent cost of akamu, potato and bread will serve for more days?

It is a painful thing that the govt has lost its compass but Nigerians have started seeking innovative means to survive.