TLAX's Posts
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locodemy:In yield? Show your stats. |
Dangote Sugar http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/21464_DANGOTE_SUGAR_REFINERY_PLC_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_MARCH_2018.pdf DPS - N1.25k/share |
RabbiDoracle:Is the new capital they raised part of this report? |
locodemy:Lol...Una no serious |
mendes911:....beware |
Just observing... It does appear "onegentleguy"s" recommendation on his "united nollywood company" may have some merit afterall. I confess I am not a fan of stock tips; giving or taking, but just doing this rejoinder cos i criticised his recommendation when it was made. I don't have any inside or proprietary information but have taken a closer look at the following1. New products by UAC and its subsidiaries on supermarket stalls. Low price competitor to some of Nestle's best. 2. Emerging Paradigm change by management as it's now seeing itself as an agri- and food based company rather than a conglomerate 3. Shuttering of non profitable subs...a major divestment likely under way to follow UBA style share allocation 4. The slow but steady progress of share price not pulled up by bulls nor dragged down by bears Just my opinion for reasons stated earlier. Not an invitation to buy or sell as my observations may turn out not to be correct. |
currentprice:Something may indeed be cooking but in an atmosphere of uncertainty like you said, caution is advised. My simple mind tells me that this is probably a one off dividend from the sale of their drinks business to Suntory last year. (https://ng.gsk.com/media/742125/shareholders-letter-3rd-june-2016.pdf) My conspiracy theory mind remembers that the international parent tried to increase their stake through a tender offer a couple of years back but this motion was rejected by shareholders (https://www.ft.com/content/0f5597d6-f062-11e2-929c-00144feabdc0), [s]since GSK parent themselves could not vote their shares being the party involved[/s]. A lot of water has passed under the bridge since then. Could this be a cashout or an inducement? Only time will tell.....Meanwhile your advice up there should suffice for the wise. |
fxuser:Riding on some unconfirmed news that may turn out true. What do you say about the volumes though? |
Coolcash1:Another way to look at it is that 1 for 5 is a 20% stock dividend i.e. 1/5 = 0.2 = 20%. On the qualification date, Whatever the share price is will be marked down by 20%. If share price has risen to N40/share it will be marked down by N8. If price is N30/share it will be marked down by N6 etc. Your investment thesis therefore is to forecast a likely share price by June 28, and then set a maximum entry price at or below 20% of that for the bonus to have any economic benefit to you. Don't forget other variables that can affect this simple model such as this is a very illiquid stock and you may not be able to sell after mark down, the bonus may take a while to get to you by which time the price may move further for, or against you etc. |
rationalmind:That's the nominal value of the shares. Every share on NSE has a nominal value of 50k. Many private and unquoted companies have shares with nominal value of N1 per share etc but before listing they have to be broken up i.e. each share is split to create 2 shares with nominal value of 50k each. If the pre listing nominal value is N2/share, it has to be split into 4 before listing. |
millo:This week....or next week at the latest. |
Mpeace:If you annualize that 3% in 2 weeks, you get about 78% p.a but like i said earlier, your proposed trades, out and in, will give you more value in a 4 - 6 weeks time frame. |
Mpeace:Everything about Eterna needs patience. If you wait for at least another month, you will get one at year high and the other at year low...patience. |
ukay2:You don't have to wait for these particular stocks. There are similarly good or better opportunities currently in the market. Open thy eyes to look and make sure you see.... |
emmanuelewumi:http://www.rtbriscoe.com/board.html |
emmanuelewumi:Correct! |
emmanuelewumi:Chief Adeojo owns over 22% of RT Briscoe through MikeAde Investments. He is largest individual shareholder and is represented on the board by his daughter Adeola Ade-Ojo. |
robobo:Banks with street smart managers will make money most of the times because they see opportunities many seasons before others do. In 2016 they made money on FX and people were concerned about 2017. In 2017 they made money from Govt. securities and people are concerned about 2018. In 2018 they will most probably make money from loans granted to the premium borrowers while the usual laggards will come mid year or last quarter and create loans that will go bad. In business school, they thought me to take courses based on professors and not course contents. Forget the bank names and invest in managers that have a track record and system of making money in this market. If they stumble, it will hardly be material. |
robobo:@Bolded....Discipline really? What happened to his own company RT Briscoe? How did it turn out? He is still in Custodian though. |
ogedanny:@Bolded....Noise to be avoided by all means to maintain sanity and actually make money from this market. |
Agbalowomeri:Annualized ROI should be a good starting point. Volume neutral. My personal guide is to invest not more than 10% of SM funds on any one stock. I;ve left some good value on the table sometimes but have also escaped some massive losses and depreciation. |
emmanuelewumi:55k to 65k |
Yayira:If that is your strategy, refine it well and stick with it. You will be surprised at the results illiquid stocks can give you. One of my best returns from a single stock ever, came from Livestock Feeds....before acquisition by UACN. Before then it was not a very liquid stock. Its all in the strategy, some patience and being immune to noise. |
GTay:Money for 2019 Tinz |
Yayira:E go show today or tomorrow. Tighten your belt. |
It struck me that there are many intelligent and intellectual folks here that going by there contributions to NSEMPA may have a lot to contribute to a more robust exchange. I am therefore asking for your contributions to the proposed rule below and a couple of others to be sent soon. You need to click a link in the letter to view the proposed rule or just go to NSE website http://www.nse.com.ng/regulation-site/IssuersRules/Proposed-Rules-for-Listing-of-Special-Purpose-Vehicles-SPVs-March%202018.pdf ***Disclosure: I neither work for NSE nor any affiliated company/institution. I am a very very retail participant in the NSE. |
Access Bank-----Bleeding ![]() |
Agbalowomeri:That's why i always advice people to treat analysts opinion with caution. Read for information purpose only and to resolve any divergence from your own research. For all you know the analyst may work in a company that is the market maker for Access. |
• Access Bank Nigeria Plc (ACCESS) released its FY-2017 results at close of trade today, showing growth in Gross earnings in the year by 20.39% to NGN459.08 billion – short of our estimates by 5.71%. PBT (-11.36%) and PAT (-13.23%) declined to NGN80.07 billion and NGN61.99 billion – missing our estimates by 17.16% and 19.28% respectively, and were below Bloomberg’s polled estimates by 12.41% and 16.26%. • Interest income (+29.35% to NGN319.85 billion) increased at a slower pace than Interest expense (+44.63% to NGN156.40 billion), resulting in a 17.47% increase in net interest income, lower than the 32.04% rise recorded in the previous year. • As a result, net interest margin dipped 40 bps to 5.80%, from 6.20% in the previous year. Asset yield was 11.30% from 11.10% in 2016, while cost of fund increased to 5.10% from 4.30% in the previous year. • NIR inched higher by 4.26% to NGN139.14 billion, supported by the surge in forex income to NGN107.93 billion, from NGN3.60 billion in the previous year, as well as marginal improvement in net fee and commission income (+3.16%). Both muted the significant declines in net trading (-160.68%) and other incomes (-59.80%). • The decline in net trading income follows a 178.38% downturn in return on derivative instruments, which dropped to a loss of NGN39.27 billion, from a gain of NGN50.11 billion in the previous year. • Provision for credit losses was higher by 57.0% at NGN34.47 billion – 63.29% higher than we expected. Accordingly, cost of risk increased to 1.70%, from 1.30% in the previous year. CAR dropped 140 bps to 21.10%, but remained well above the regulatory requirement. • The increased loan loss provision matched the 270 bps increase in the NPL ratio to 4.80%, against 2.1% recorded in the previous year. • Opex growth increased to 17.31%, from a 10.13% increase in the previous year, driven by a 23.02% and 20.82% increases in other operating expenses and depreciation and amortization respectively. • Although tax expense was 4.33% lower in absolute terms, the effective tax rate increased by 271 bps to 29.17%. • Over Q4-17, the top and bottom line performances were poor, with Gross Earnings (-20.25% q/q, -11.49% y/y), PBT (-65.67% q/q, -60.94% y/y), and PAT (-66.97% q/q, -60.99% y/y) posting declines. All three line items came short of our estimates by 22.75%, 69.84%, and 72.57% respectively. • Net Interest income (+9.23% q/q, +28.08% y/y) increased to NGN41.98 billion, despite decline in interest income (-11.89% q/q, +11.96% y/y), as interest expense (-29.72% q/q, -3.90% y/y) dipped at a faster pace. • NIR declined by 40.89% q/q and 49.89% y/y, owing to decrease in forex income to a loss position of NGN8.52 billion in the quarter, from positive positions of NGN57.43 billion and NGN57.29 billion in the previous quarter and same period in the previous year. Net trading income also plunged 120.81% q/q,a and 118.97% y/y during the quarter. • Loan impairment provision surged by 779.43% against the previous quarter to NGN21.64 billion, and was 125.05% higher than the same period in the previous year. • A dividend of NGN0.65 was declared, unchanged from the previous year, and yielding 5.53% on today’s closing price of NGN11.75. • ACCESS’ unimpressive performance is likely to trigger selloffs in tomorrow’s trading session, similar to investors’ reaction to its peers (despite broadly impressive releases) last week. |
***ANALYST OPINION, NOT MINE*** Access Bank Plc Action/Event: Access has released audited FY17 results showing a 13% y/y decline in EPS, driven by higher loan loss provisions and operating expenses. The numbers were below our estimates by 23% and below consensus estimates by 17%. The bank proposed a total DPS of 65 kobo (40 kobo final), also below consensus expectations of 72 kobo. Asset quality deterioration is behind but catching up with industry: Credit losses increased by 57% y/y, which we attribute partly to provisioning to its 9mobile exposure, as banks with exposure to the name have had to take provisions on the name. Cost of risk increased to 1.7% from 1.2% in FY16 but lower than our expectations of 2%. The bank took additional provisions of N21.6bn in Q4:17. We expected higher impairments as the bank had been behind the curve in provisioning when compared to peers. As at 9M17, cost of risk stood at 1%. NPL ratio increased to 4.8%, ahead of our expectations of 3.5%, vs. peer average of 6.2%. NIMs declined y/y by 40bps to 5.8%, reflecting an 80bps increase in cost of funds to 5.1% during the period, as yield on assets increased by 20bps. Customer loans increased by 10% y/y and 12% in Q4:17, which we attribute partly to currency revaluation as most banks moved from the CBN rate to NIFEX rate of around N330/USD. Cost efficiency remains below peers: Operating expenses also increased by 9% y/y, as cost to income ratio increased to 62% from 58%. This was worse than our expectations of 58.9% and peer average of 45%. Derivative gains drive non-interest revenues (NIR): NIR remained positive, driven primarily by derivative gains, posting net foreign exchange trading income of N120bn. Q4:17 NIR performance was weak, declining by 41%, as the bank made foreign exchange losses in Q4:17. Sustainability on income from derivatives remains a concern, as conditions that favoured such transactions are fast changing. Nevertheless, Q4:17’s trend of fees and commissions which we see as customer generating businesses increased by 33.5% when compared to Q3:17, which could be an indication of increased economic activity, a trend we will watch in Q1:18. However fee and commission income was flat y/y. Valuation: We have a BUY recommendation in Access Bank with a TP of N13.71, however GTB and Zenith remain our preferred picks within our coverage, given stronger operating efficiency and less risk of further asset quality deterioration when compared to peers. Results conference call: The bank will host an audio conference call for analysts and investors on 26 March 2018 at 14:00 hrs Lagos (9:00hrs New York, 13:00hrs London, 15:00hrs Johannesburg). See full details on page 3. |
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