₦airaland Forum

nuclearboy: We need to also consider the governors and PDP stalwarts who influenced the 2011 voting pattern (and results) in the north - now that GEJ has effectively said "to your tents O Israel" and watched\allowed BH decimate the north with the JTF becoming almost more unpopular, I doubt any northern politician who has plans for his head will tacitly or otherwise support GEJ! Fear of the reprisals from 2011 will likely keep most Christians in the north from going to the polls as well!

Put soldiers in the booths & with what we saw last time, even they will be scared to allow thumb-printing as was done last time!

Violence aside, the same will likely pan out in the SW! And if the Dokubos etc continue at this pace, GEJ may end up in a ditch in places where he currently feels secure!

The only thing that can change this (from my point of view) is GMB not entering the race! Knowing PDPs desperation, I have wondered a few times if we won't hear of assassination attempts on GMB

True talk...

fatdon2: Nigerians hatred to buhari even frm
his
northerners is high. He shud stay side
for a moment. His gud name b4 yrs has
been tarnished. Nt buhari we do knw
b4 is de correct one. 90% of southerners don't like n can't vote him.
55% of northerners hate and cnt vote
him. He will b de foolish coward to
contest again. Nw northern youths
knws dia problem is frm de past
leaders which has been aired by one of
dia leaders. Poverty is nt de excuse
cus is also affect all regions. Majority
of
nig believes buhari is behind boko
haram. Even if is nt tru, he is nt doing enuf to clear his name frm it.
Attacking
d current administration which is a
failure to nigerians will nt give him
support frm people. Majority prefer
gej dan him. Sorry for nigeria.

This unintelligent baby comment again?

egift: We have come to a point in this nation where GEJ,Okupe and co see evil when someone speak the truth about current issues in the country. Their wish is simple - everyone should shut up while the rot and insecurity continues.

Hypocritically, the lap dog had nothing to say about their buddy Ayo Oritsejafor.

Do you see that? Interesting... The are only interested in Buhari and NLC. The knew Oritsejafor was coming to Aso Rock to drink red win after the statement he made - no need to attack him - he is a friend and supporter of the thieves in Aso rock.

fatdon2: Nigerians hatred to buhari even frm his
northerners is high. He shud stay side
for a moment. His gud name b4 yrs has
been tarnished. Nt buhari we do knw
b4 is de correct one. 90% of
southerners don't like n can't vote him. 55% of northerners hate and cnt vote
him. He will b de foolish coward to
contest again. Nw northern youths
knws dia problem is frm de past
leaders which has been aired by one of
dia leaders. Poverty is nt de excuse cus is also affect all regions. Majority of
nig believes buhari is behind boko
haram. Even if is nt tru, he is nt doing
enuf to clear his name frm it. Attacking
d current administration which is a
failure to nigerians will nt give him support frm people. Majority prefer
gej dan him. Sorry for nigeria.

Senseless first comment. Even my five years old wont type this unintelligent comment. Presidency attacking an opposition leader is tantamount to Nigerians including northerners hatred for the opposition leader.

Deep Sight: Ol boy it doesn't seem that we are addressing the same issues.

By the way, I wonder by what parameter you state that I am not "from" the SW. Lol. You must have a crystal ball.

I do agree about the sentimental voting issue though. That was always the point, in case you didnt notice. That is the only reason why we would have to look for a "realistic" candidate, rather than a "worthy" candidate!

Peace.

Then tell us the criteria that will make the candidate realistic.

- Acceptability to SE
- Acceptability to SS

Acceptability of candidates to other regions is not important as long as the above two regions accept the candidate. So, GEJ is the only realistic candidate - no need to vote again.

Deep Sight: Well since you agree that Buhari cannot get anything from the SS or SE, then that leaves the SW as the only bone of contention, right? You say that he will get votes from the SW if ACN supports him. But I say that this is not true. The Ribadu precedent is there. He was the ACN candidate, and while the SW electorate went ahead to vote for ACN Governors and parliamentarians, they rejected the ACN Northern Presidential candidate in favour of GEJ.

As far as I am concerned, Buhari is not any more palatable to the SW electorate than Ribadu was. If anything, the SW electorate have a strong tradition of rejecting perceived tyrants, and like I said before, I doubt that they would ever vote an ex-Military Head of State - not even Murtala Mohammed if he were alive - as president. Remember the OBJ case - a Yoruba man himself! - serially rejected by the SW electorate for same reasons. How much more likely is it then, that they would vote a northern ex military Head of State? As such, it seems to me that the entire south will still reject a Buhari Candidacy.

Yes, I agree that the candidacy may have a chance in the SW with Fashola on board as running mate, but at best that will only split things up. There will still be large swathes that will reject the notion simply on account of Buhari. Especially as they know that the VP slot has no powers whatsoever. Finally, be careful about Fashola's popularity. I know very well that he has become deeply unpopular among the lower and poorer classes in Lagos for many of the recent measures he has taken - measures, which, of course, he would never have taken in his first term.

At the very best, such a ticket will split the SW presidential vote. Many would still go for GEJ as opposed to Buhari, I tell you.

This discussion has made me weary. It has made me feel that there is no real present hope to unseat PDP at the centre.

Man stop being ignorant... I asked you a simple question, you didnt answer it - tell me any northerner or yoruba that can win SS or SE votes if GEJ contests. It is not about Buhari mr man, it is about the sentiment of SS and SE folks. So, stop saying it is had to sell Buhari to SS and SE. Can you sell GEJ to NW or NE?

I am a westerner and you are not - I was also here in south west during the 2011 election. We knew what happened - ACN backed out of Ribadu's candidacy few days/weeks to the election. It was glaring to everybody in south west and the reason Ribadu didnt get much vote here. In Osun state where ACN needed to make assertion that ACN was in control after the installation of Aregbe, ACN campigned there and ensured people voted for Ribadu - Osun state was the only state won by Ribadu.

People in the south west hoped for the merger but when it was glaring that it wont work due to clash of interests, everybody here gave up. And many people didnt even vote in the presidential election as a result of this. Check the total number of people who voted here compared to the number people who registered to vote.

Ikengawo: It's only the Southwest that's stupid enough to keep making deals with these devils to no avail.
PDP knows it's strength is the SE and SS. Forget everything else.
Nigeria is about looting and using your loot to acquire more power. elections are funded by godfathers and niger delta governors
what the north is saying is true, what one ND governor gets is more than that region in allocations, they're the primary target for PDP funding when it comes to fund raising. Wtf can the governor of Katsina contribute? The SE has penetrated enough of the country to be able to break down margins everywhere. You're ignoring the only two politically relevant regions in the country and expecting to win as if you haven't been losing for ignoring them to begin with.


They will vote and fund GEJ jare. Idk what yoruba people's own is against igbos but that's the ignorance that's going to keep nigeria enslaved by PDP for the next 50 years. Buhari and Tinubu are local government champions. Lets call a spade a spade.

And Ojukwu was a national champion like Igbos are?

Igbos can't rule Nigeria with the way you go about politics. You dont show perpectual hatred for people you will need to support you during election - you need their votes to get to Aso rock. Can a Igbo man win any vote in the north apart form 1 or 2 states in the middlebelt? Can a Igbo man win any vote in South West? Then tell me how a Igbo man will be president of Nigeria now or future and generations to come.

Deep Sight: Please note: I have not, via my arguments above, sought to say that he is not a realistic candidate. If anything, I already conceded that somewhere along the thread. My argument re: realistic; was limited to saying that he would not sell in the south. That's all I said as per 'realistic'.

The arguments above are a tangent - and I acknowledged that I was digressing from the thread explicitly - I said so. My comments above are a tangent arising from your own comments in response to my tangential question: whether Buhari is a morally or historically apt choice for a self-respecting nation.

This has little bearing on the thread; for which the question is who will make a realistic candidate with sufficient pull to un-seat the PDP at the Federal Level. From comments here, it seems Buhari is the leading option still. I already noted that since he also appears the only realistic option, that too, is a sad commentary on Nigeria and the limited space of Nigerian Politics.

He will not sell to who in the south? South West or South East?

We know if GEJ contests, South South will still vote out of sentiment for their son though the generality of the people of South South will get nothing from his presidency. So, take south south out of discussion - whoever the opposition presents will not get any vote from South South.

South West dont have anything against Buhari and he will win South West 80 - 90% if the merger works.

Does Igbos not wanting to vote for Hausa/Fulani now mean the whole of south is opposed to Buhari? Who in the north can win SE votes if GEJ contests?

You are not been realistic yourself and you are here asking for realistic suggestion.

Buhari/Fashola or Buhari/Oshiomole is the answer.

Pastor Kun: PDP does not have monopoly of bad governance as we all know the leader of ACN (Tinubu) is the most notoriously corrupt politician in Nigeria. That aside Obj did brilliantly well during his second term even though he messed up by handing over to a dunce. Truth be said it's not the party that really matters, it is the person that occupies the office.

Everybody is now a pastor - even Kunle, the pdp supporter. On that day, Guru Maraji may end up getting lighter punishement than these hypocrites.

pro01: The fact remains there is no "realistic" alternative to the PDP in 2015. Permutations about this or that candidate/ticket in this or that party/coalition is just what it is: permutations. The peculiar dilemma we face is that the 'ideal' individuals that we would like to take a shot at the presidency have no realistic chance, while the individuals with a (remotely) realistic chance are far from 'ideal'. Let's not kid ourselves.

The only possibility of unseating Jonathan is to deny him the PDP ticket. Only within the PDP itself can a realistic alternative arise for the presidency, and that would take unprecedented horse-trading, conspiratorial alliances, and almost coup-like planning and execution to happen. Even then, such a move would be predicated on tribal sentiments: a combined northern effort to produce a northern president. This would most likely produce one of the present northern governors as candidate. Then again, even this would be extremely difficult to materialise. Nigeria's democracy has not evolved to a point where the rug would be pulled from under the feet of the Commander-in-Chief without him blooding everyone's nose if need be. This is not like OBJ's ill-fated third term ambition that required a constitutional amendment. In Jonathan's case, it would be a legitimate aspiration for a second term, and so you would expect him to be ruthless. Don't count on him being 'meek' or 'clueless' in that regard. He is the President and Commander-in-Chief, and he knows it.

By the time things begin to get dirty and desperate in the build up to PDP's special convention to select the presidential candidate, I expect Jonathan to deploy the immense powers at his disposal against the governors or anyone else standing in his way (ala OBJ). He would fight dirty - and most likely win dirty. If he gets the ticket, he gets a second term. Simple.

As unpalatable as this may sound, no other party or coalition of parties has what it takes to wrestle power from the PDP for now. Make no mistakes about that.

Denying gej pdp ticket will further brighten the chance of the opposition. You dont seem to know how people here think.

Laalamed: muslim-muslim is not realistic just as christian-christian ticket.president and vp cannot come from the same region,north or south.my own take ribadu-fayemi ticket.both of them are young.

Two dense people. PDP will be so happy if the opposition presents them - the election will not be interesting at all.

Who told you muslim-muslim ticket is not realistic. This has happened in the past and it can happen again.

Buhari/Fash ticket will sell like hot cake. How many bigots do we have in Nigeria? All Nigerians want is good governance.

Dick Tator: You can make Buhari the gov of your state for all we care but you can't force him on other Nigerians. This was the same Buhari hated with venom by the sw dominated press in the 80s. You only want Buhari for politicdl expediency.

All we need for Buhari to be president is simple majority - democracy does not require everybody to vote for him. So, we are not worry at all that you would vote wrongly again. But I can asure you, majority of nigerians will do the right thing this time around.

Gooogle: It is really amazing how this thread started and gradually got derailed more especially by the OP himself. And I must say, the first 3 pages were nice, after then only God knows what happened.

Probably the op thought we are all from ss and se most of whom hate to hear Buhari. It baffles me when a minority group thinks it can determine who wins or loses election. You asked Nigerians who they want and they say Buhari - why should this be a problem for someone who disguises as an innocent patriotic seeker of knowledge/information. With the way he muddled up the threat, showing his real self, it would have been better for his anti-buhari course to just open a direct anti-Buhari thread or a thread promoting his candidate.

Dick Tator: I think you would have to wait till 2019. That is the most realistic time anyone can unseat GEJ.

I think most people here have little or no value for history. Those clamouring for Buhari now should ask their father why Nigerians jubilated when Buhari was toppled. You only have to check the history of that era to realize what a religious bigot Buhari is.

Typical ss or se villager. Come out from the bush/creek and see how nigerians will vote in 2015.

Buhari/Fashola or Buhari/oshiomole.

asha 80: most nigerian voters are not really enlightened as they vote out of sentiment.that is where buhari would have a problem.whether rightly or wrongly the average southerner view about buhari has deteriorated the more after all those killings in the north(including corpers) after the 2011 elections.never rule out perception when it comes to voting in nigeria.

Igbos have never voted for Buhari and they wont in 2015 because their own definition of leadership is different and very uncivilized. Hence, it is not the killing in the north that changed their mind but rather their usual hatred for other tribes and religion.

South West is the majority ethinic group in the South and we dont have any issue with Buhari. The reason we are working out an alliance with Buhari's CPC.

PointB: lol @ you stupidi.ty

If you dont like what the facts that are stated about buhari, how is that my problem. Bro you rather need history lesson. Take it or leave it, buhari is perpetually unelectable; you can continue hawking expired drugs or move on with your life. Whatever you choose is my business, as my business is mine.

But you know each person has only one vote. Who are you then to say someone is perpectually unelectable? Tell us what you mean by Buhari is unelectable. That I cant vote for him or what?

PointB: What is the lie about Buhari being a coup plotter and benefiting from such? If he he wasn't part of the coup plot, why didn't he refuse the offer to benefit from such? Or what is the difference between a thief, one one abets, and the one who benefits from the proceed? Why also pretend that the islamic world view and disposition of buhari is oblivious to you and other Nigerians? You choose what to see and believe, perhaps. But the truth and fact are there staring you in the eyes.

Buhari is a bigoted, bloody, coup plotter. Nigerians will keep rejecting him!

High blood pressure will kill you over this Buhari issue. And note, most of the people contributing here are more enlightened and wiser than you. I advice you sit down and learn from the various contributions.

Deep Sight: And also regardless of the treasonable past of such people. O kare o.

Say whatever you like, it is either Buhari/fashola or Buhari/oshiomole. Nothing will change that and the whole of south west, north and a few se/ss who want sanity in Nigeria are waiting impatiently for campaign to begin in 2014.

pazienza: Now,let me expose the tribalism and regionalism,the two civil war bed fellows are trying to cover with a veneer of patroitism. The two bed fellows fought for a one nigeria they can control,with gowon and awo at the helm of affairs,it was mission accomplished. Fast foward to 2013,the two regions have lost out in the power game to a minority from the east,so they want the power back. This isn't about love for nigeria,this is about control of nigeria,a buhari/fashola ticket,to pave way for fashola's presidency after buhari eight years tenure,this is what this is all about.

Dont bring any minority rubbish into this. No way for GEJ in 2015. Nigerians are coming together to rescue their country by ensuring capable people are put in aso rock regardless of religion and ethnicity.

Eziachi: And who did the South West gave their vote in 2011?

For reasons best known to the stakeholders. Acn is the party in south west and people here vote along that line. If the acn which is their rallying points says gej implicitly or explicitely, gej may still have his way. But will that ever happen in 2015 with the merger? Of course NO and not even with the failure of GEJ. South west dont support failure even if he is their son. So, forget about GEJ winning south west in 2015 and it will too bad if you cant read the handwritting on the wall already. And in 2011, a lot of people didnt bother to vote due to the silence of acn.

Akpan107: My dear, i totally disagree with you! Buhari can never win the North completely, as voting for a President has turned into religious divide... Now, 40-45% of people in the North are Christians who would never trust the Buhari presidency...
Here is the list of places Buhari would never win in the North:
Taraba State
Southern Kaduna
Plateau State
Benue State
Kogi State
Kwara State
Adamawa State
while Goodluck will sweep the above States, South-West, South-East and South-South. 2015 no Vecancy in Aso-Rock.

Is southern Kaduna now a state? PDP/GEJ sweeping south west in 2015? I laugh in Yoruba... I can convincingly tell you that apart from Plateau and Benue who will still vote along religious line, GEJ will lose in all other states in middle belt. 2015 will be different and too bad if you dont know that. I am south west and you are not - I am in a better position to advice you as to how south west will vote. GEJ will struggle to get 25% in some states here - write it down.

Deep Sight: Mind you, I personally do not subscribe to a Buhari candidacy - but the thread is not about my personal subscription. The thread is about realistic options for the opposition and in that regard, Buhari may be a liability in terms of securing southern votes.

I concede though, that he will be a good candidate to sweep northern votes. I also concede that he will be good for anti-corruption.

Who in the north can sweep southern votes? Name one. And who in the south can sweep northern votes? Name one.

fagin1982: Why this funny love for Buhari...Majority of the people clamouring for Buhari Leadership were not even born then when he was a military president...Majority also should take thr time and study his antecedents..Buhari is not what Nigeria needs in this modern times...Politics , democracy has gone far away from wickedness and shear military brutality...We as a nation needs a Leader with vision, a modern day Man , a technocrat ,a brigde builder , a non tribalist , a humble servant with zero tolerance for indiscipline and corruption....Nigeria is a faliure today just because real men shy aware from Politics.....Buhari , Fashola o, El Rufai ,and co cant take Nigeria far....We need a true aPATRIOT ..

For me GEJ should go for a second term....after then we can start talking about replacement...Take it to the moon ,PDP is not yet ready to reliquinsh power esp @the Federal level...


What we should be talking about here in Nigeria is total re-orientation...The Basic units have failed ..Our Families have failed ,the society has failed ,individually we ve failed ..Let us all start by correcting out own personal lives , and strive to be good and patriotic citizens....One funny thing about Nigerians we re very good @criticizing from the outside when we re not even better off...

Why not just propose your own candidate if you dont want Buhari? You want to chose for us?

Oahray: lol. PDP would not let Oshiomhole contest. He is yet to disprove the 'educational qualification' scandal. From the look of the plenty evidence, he has no real certificates. PDP would drag his as.s to court the moment he publicly declares his presidential ambition.

Try Fashola for president. I don't like Buhari. Idiagbon was the real ruler in their regime.

Hold it man. Oshiomole doesnt have any certificate and he is governor.

Man, we are talking about candidates that can win. Fashola will only win vote in south west with the support of acn and that makes him a good vp to Buhari who can deliver votes across the north without spending a kobo.

Deep Sight: @Wadeoye, are you sure about your analysis?

1. PDP will still take large portions of the north - as happened in 2011 if Buhari contests. The reason is simple - there is the middle-belt - which would mostly vote GEJ over a Buhari for one million reasons. Secondly even the core north may be divided, as we are seeing presently.

2. I do not believe that the SW will ever go for Buhari just because of a party alliance. In 2011 THEY rejected Ribadu in favour of GEJ in spite of the fact that Ribadu was the ACN candidate. That should tell you something about the SW electorate. In fact, their serial rejections of Obasanjo also proves that the savvy SW electorate are very unlikely to vote for any former military dictator altogether.

3. Do you not think that it would be wiser, if the presidential ticket must be Northern, to go for a younger, fresher candidate who is not tainted by entrenched perceptions of bigotry (whether true or false) and persisting suspicion and controversy?

I admire Buhari's stance on anti-corruption, although I personally dont believe he has a moral right to seek democratic office in Nigeria seeing that he truncated the 2nd Republic with an act of treasonable felony. Nevertheless that is not really the point here. I am speaking about realistic chances of unseating the PDP; and it seems apparent to me that the opposition will not have such a chance if Buhari is its flagbearer.

Besides, let me ask the question: when the SAME candidates are thrown up year in year out for an election, there is the suggestion that it is more about the ego and personal ambition of such leaders than about any genuine desire for change.

Have you ever asked yourself why John Kerry did not come back as Democratic Flagbearer after losing to Bush? Why Al Gore did not come back after losing to Bush? You see there is something in this fact which shows that for them, it is more about their ideologies in power, than in the desperate, perennial insistence on coming back to contest. Are there no others?

Keep deceiving yourself. If acn aligns and campaign for buhari, he will win all the votes. Buhari didnt campaign in south west in 2011 likewise in other parts of the south because of the resources required to do this. Buhari doesnt have the money and all he needs is for acn to deliver south west afterall they wikl be stakeholders in the merger. So things will be diff.

And how many states did Gej win in the north in 2011? Can you name a few and the nunber of votes he got there?

Gboliwe: How would a Rochas/Fashola ticket sell?

Must the next president and or vice be a former governor?

You are not matured or politically enlightened enough to make contribution. You suggestion above proves that. I advice you just read suggestion from people until you grow up enough.

Have been continuously on generator since yesterday in lagos here. Where are those stupid gej bootlickers who will come here to say gej has delivered electricity for nigeria?

[quote author=Deep Sight]Are you sure it is not true what most believe with regard to Buhari and elections in Nigeria - namely that he remains perpetually un-electable?

Note that I am not asking for a ticket that you like or find fanciful, or a dream ticket. I am asking for a ticket that you think is realistic in light of Nigeria's political dynamics. A ticket that can realistically win an election against GEJ/ PDP?



You dont seem to understand the reality on the ground. The choice we have now is between GEJ (the clueless) and an opposition candidate. Was GEJ acceptable in the north in 2011? Will he be acceptable in 2015? As a matter of fact, 2015 will be tougher in the north and I doubt if gej will get 10% of the votes in many states there

Now will South West still vote for pdp/gej in 2011, the answer is no. As a matter of fact, the last election went in the way of pdp because a poor party CPC was left alone to slog it out with the all powerful pdp with south west falling for the "I had no shoes", etc senseless statements. GEJ winning wasnt because Buhari is not electable. That Igbos will not vote for northerner or someone from another religion doesnt make a candidate inelectable. MKO Abiola called the bluff of Igbos and what happend. He won the election without Igbos voting for him.

You know, nobody can defeat Buhari in the north, if Tinubus come to their senses and align as they are doing now, Buhari is more than sure of South West including Edo if Oshiomole is VP. Work has started already in sw for Buhari. They are waiting for him. I had about 3 calls today from Osun state in respect of Buhari.

Now tell me how pdp will win south west if ACN merges with CPC? If they cant win South West, tell me which region of the country pdp will win apart from ss and part of se which will be battle ground. Definitely, we are sure pdp will get nothing from the north if Buhari contests.

fatdon2: If u say jonalthan is clueless but he
won the election.To make this country
ungovernable is a clueless
approach.sir,you're great footballer
during your own time but for now age
and fitness is against you.we need young blood with tactical approach.

Like Ibori, bankole, faruk, etc

Buhari/Oshiomole. I dont see making an igbo man vp adding any value to the dream of evolving an alternative platform, otherwise, someone like ngige would have been a good vp candidate.

[quote author=head_to_to]I dont get it. If it is not about winning power at the centre, then what is it about?[/quote]Idi.ot, we are not in this just to win power. The essence is to ensure we have sane people at the helm of affair who have what it takes and the integrity to move the country forward. Definitely the government to be formed will not work or operate like the killers party - PDP. Things will be done differently with serious war against corruption. Just wait and see as we rescue you and your already misrable life.

free13: Bakare the criminal.

Now look at this. Can you imagine a human being typing this? This is a typical supporter of GEJ - mentally inbalanced people.