₦airaland Forum

bigjay01:
when your average holding cost is 56k, you can sit tight and afford not to worry!

Average holding cost is less than 50kobo if you add dividends

I however have a strict policy. No single stock can constitute more than 25% of my portfolio (except GTB). Also, no sector should constitute more than 50%! To keep to the 'rule' some rebalancing must be done. So not really about fear.

bigjay01:
either way, i am sitting pretty!

You tried. Being selling to rebalance my portfolio. NEM cannot be more than 20% of my holding. Mbaaa

Agbalowomeri:
I am sure there is a pending cross-deal at an agreed price

They can do the cross deal without distorting the market! From 50kobo to almost N3.00! Hope Milost is not acquiring NEM also oo

NEM representing well.

Honeywell and UPL seems to be on a free fall.

Are we going to see a breakout for C&I Leasing?

Market down by 0.21%

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-19/milost-is-said-to-plan-1-billion-investment-in-nigerian-bank

This Milost people na real wayo people ooo

Agbalowomeri:
Not even intelligent scam

Can you imagine this :

Milost buys shares of a company at a minimum 50 percent premium to its market value, and then pegs this price over the next 90 days. If the stock fails to exceed this threshold, the target company will pay the difference to Milost in the form of extra stock, and a penalty of 10 percent to 20 percent of the discount that the share is trading at over a five-day period, it said.

Mad people plenty oooo

dipoolowoo:
Milost to Invest $1b in Unity Bank, Targets 30% Stake
https://www.businesspost.ng/2018/03/19/milost-to-invest-1b-in-unity-bank-targets-30-stake/

How much is the total capitalization of Unity bank that 30% will be worth N360bn? Na wa for Nigeria ooo

Agbalowomeri:
Una don carry Milost come again

Seems Milost is printing dollars to be invested only in Nigeria. They must be undertakers who invest only in DEAD companies

Oya, make we start to buy Unity Bank now.

RabbiDoracle:
http://www.tribuneonlineng.com/cbn-frowns-as-hot-money-exceeds-fdi-by-7bn-in-2018/

They should stop making noise. Why will any reasonable person invest 'long term' in Nigeria when he can make some quick money?

Let them continue to frown! An stupid restriction will see the economy tank!

Seems there is a LOT of panic! People need to relax and manage their expectations.

People seems to believe the Armageddon is here! I don't think so.

For 'traders', we are in difficult times. There is NOTHING to move the share prices northwards. Most stocks already have the full ear result factored into their prices hence the 'bull' run end of last year. Except the final result is significantly different from full year result, don't expect major change in prices.

I think we still have value on the NSE. Zenith is trading at a PE of <5.00! That is a deal. Even GTB's PE is <10! They are ramping up personal loan now since the free TB money is gone for now. I expect the top banks to be able to sustain earnings in 2018. With current oil price, their Oil and Gas NPL should see some improvements.

Generally, people should FORGET about buying at the 'bottom' and selling at the 'peak'. It is a fallacy! I guess that is what is responsible for the gloom now! You are better off having a percentage profit you plan to make and exiting once that OBJECTIVE is met. Many seems to be trading without a strategic plan! The only plan seems to be to 'hammer'

And for those who don't have their emotion in check, flee the NSE! Your portfolio can be down 30% in just 2 weeks! For those that started last year and only saw the BULL run and thought it will continue, biko life is not like that!

Lastly, PLEASE avoid 'kalo kalo' stocks like JA PAUL irrespective of the seeming 1000% returns. Such stocks are not meant for 'ordinary' human beings. Only 'winch' people trade in stocks with zero fundamentals plus terrible corporate governance/management! When such stocks reverse, na like trailer going back on a slope! At least if person go chop frog, chop the one with egg!

Happy Investing

nosa2:
Everything depends on our perspective. I see no budget, no MPC quorum and crisis that is destroying the very fabric of our economy (Agriculture).

No worry, make una enjoy the party.

Budget got Nothing to do until after 6months! Just part of the noise.

Oil price is the main thing.

> $40bn forex reserve is great!

For as long as herdsmen no affect oil production, we are good! Agriculture employs people nothing more! When oil price tank, none of the other sectors including noise making sectors like Banking and Telecoms could help!

Agbalowomeri:
My Oga nobody can time the market but I know when I am comfortable staying in and when I need to get out. That is the koko

Managing EMOTIONS is the most difficult part of investing. Easy to run numbers and interpret the charts. However the discipline to take decisions based on the numbers/charts is where the problem is. We will get there!

Agbalowomeri:
I be long termer before before
You know how many times my GT went up to 40 and back to 13? All I dey see na tasere dividend. What efficiency lies in that strategy?

Hope you have the crystal ball to predict the movement from 40 to 13 and back to 40! The belief that one can TIME the market is a fallacy!

ogedanny:
It's no longer a news that Zenith bank latest result is smashing! Better figures across board, revenue, profit and EPS. But, why is the price falling?

If you had not checked my blog, take a look at my recent post on "How Long Should I Hold My Stock As a Short Term Trader?".

This is the time to know who the real traders are, did you know that the current price of Zenith bank's stock is a big opportunity in disguise? take a look at GTB, the bank's latest Q3 EPS is at N4, price per share is more than N40 while Zenith bank's latest EPS is N5.66, and share price closed at N30. Isn't this a perfect time to buy more units of Zenith bank?

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There is a REASON why Zenith ALWAYS trade at a lower PE to GTB! This is the case since time IMMEMORIAL.

wanaj0:
$1.1bn Na beans??

They claimed to 'own' FEMAB also [url]http://femabproperties.com/
[/url]

BEWARE

I talk am ooooo. Milo(st) indeed

When I talk say I no believe the Milost story I was told that it is REAL!!! The numbers just don't add up. No 'unknown' company invest such HUGE amounts in rubbish companies! It can only make sense IF they are doing money laundering

nosa2:
Conversations are difficult to follow here. Plus I am still bearish on the Naira so I'm not touching Nigerian assets yet. Let the currency bloodbath finish then I'll be back

With the oil price, forex reserve level, peace in the ND, there is some 'comfort' for the Naira

IchimokuPilot:
JAPAUL is a legally operated/ listed SCAM!
This is one company that taught me that the quality of MANAGEMENT is non negotiable when INVESTING or SPECULATING.

When speculating where the management is solid, the exit door opens severally.
When speculating where thorns alone thrive, your entry time may be the last time the door was left open.....

JAPAUL is the younger and more energetic twin of OANDO.

Ha ha ha. When I was talking about OandO then, I was told that I was trying to rubbish the company. I remembered being told of how much better OandO is compared to SEPLAT. Who remember the OandO refinery story? Where is Morgan again self?

Management Hmmm. Whenever I see Hakeem Bello Osagie on the board of any company I FLEE. Under him, you cannot correlate UBA quarterly result with final result. Not surprised with how far he led Etisalat.

Many rogues around in Nigeria. No one should allow such rogues to use their hard earned money for 'enjoyment'.

I expect ridiculous IPO's to start to surface with unrealistic projections BUT with glossy presentations. Hopefully people will be wise to recognise value and discern a SCAM!

shigidi:
Oga wanajo you say we are far from markrt crash before. Now crash is at hand. Prices havent changed from this post to when Mr. Stockswatch came on board

Yes we are far from market crash. How many IPO's and private placement have you seen?

What has changed is that people have started buying stocks in 'DEAD' companies. That usually quickly facilitate a crash.

Fundamentals are still strong. Good oil price. Reasonable forex reserve. So no panic button yet.

But when you start to see people buying some 'terrible' companies one need to be worried!

mendes911:
Chief, as someone many of us listens to, is it possible you call out the proponents of "pumping and dumping" once they make a post? Maybe newbies might be more cautious when the attack comes from you!

You have been talking about school fees payment but some didn't quite understand. They still listened to those that claimed to be rooted in insider news (spiritual and physical).

I doubt that the people doing 'pumping and dumping' are here. People just get caught up in a web that they themselves are not aware off!

Look at it this way, how many people understand the business that Japaul is in to? How much is the total capitalisation of JaPaul that Milost will use $250m to acquire 'Part' of the equity? Can you even trust JaPaul to do anything meaningful with any money given to it? What happened to the IPO money? So what is the expectation when one buys JaPaul? When the stock was gaining everyday, what was driving it?

During the bulls, everyone becomes an expert! The bears undresses everyone! You saw people's response to Obabolujo (sp) programme? How many people he encouraged to use short term funds (loans) to invest in the capital market? I am waiting for the IPO's to start again. MTN will come out soon? Watch at the fantastic numbers they will present. No one will mention that ARPU is reducing year on year!

People just need to be disciplined with their money. NOTHING wrong with gambling once you know for sure that you are gambling. People travel all the way to Macau to gamble paying for flight ticket and accommodation anyway!

Anyone that tells you he can determine the highs and lows should also supply you the lottery number!

gbengus50:
very well said Sir, investing is a very risky game in any clime. Catalogues of profit warning on the FTSE sending some shares down by 70%.Carillion went bankrupt, investors lost all their funds,BT went from £5 to £2.50 and so on.Extreme care should be the watchword.

Those are markets that are close to 'efficient market'. Ours is very inefficient! People need to study OandO to understand how inefficient our market is.

When the BULLS are around, people forget how risky capital market investment is. That time everyone is an expert. This is because even dead companies will start to trend upwards. People throw caution to the wind. Similar to forex trading, people get carried away! when I hear people expecting 10% dividend yield, I was wondering whether it is another NSE we are talking about.

Until Onwuka Interbiz was delisted, if you put in a bid, there may be someone willing to sell to you! Many have bought DEAD (not about to die) companies without knowing. When people say due diligence I do hope people know the meaning!

I laugh when people buy shares of companies that has not released audited result in years! What is the basis? When the bulls are around, such stocks tend to rally fast! Why you may ask? They are trying to dump on someone.

There will always be losers. Just make sure that your winners are more than your losers. There is a reason why PENCOM restricted shares that PFA's can buy into! It is to preserve capital.

Happy Investing.

yodiyokun:
My brother @Wanaj0, I am loyal ooo.

I have been looking out for you and Pumping777. Life no gree me see road but I don return.

Madam, which part of the world you dey now? Longest time!!!!!

kolaish:
Abayomi Obabolujo taking stock: 9am - 9.10am Monday - Friday
http://www.liveonlineradio.net/nigeria/radio-one-fm-103-5-lagos.htm

for those in lagos, you can just tune in.

Evidence that the crash is at hand. We only need the oil price to adjust and we will see the NSE nose dive.

When you have Obabolujo (sp) making noise you better flee.

While objective is to make money on NSE, preservation of capital is key.

Reading the posts, it is obvious that MANY people are breaking the 'rules' of capital market investing!

Capital Market is meant for 'long term' investment. When you decide to turn it to 'very short term', you need to understand the risk and the consequences. Worse when you target stocks with zero fundamentals. This is compounded when you now allow 'GREED' to take over.

As stated many times, people will pay SCHOOL fees for NSE this year. People are getting carried away by the 'bulls' especially when they don't understand what is driving the prices up! People forget that there is a lot of 'manipulation' going on with some stocks on the NSE. We use to call it pumping and dumping. (where is Pumping biko?)

Most of the charts for technical analysis assumes an efficient market. The NSE is NOT efficient at all. So every easy to be mislead.

There is this story/joke of a lady buying an illiquid stock with zero fundamentals. She was buying from the husband (unknowingly of course) with 5% gain everyday. When she wanted to SELL there was no BUYER. If you will 'gamble', try and gamble with a stock that if the trade moves against you, the stocks can be converted to your LONG TERM holdings.

Except your pocket is very deep, be wary of stocks with poor management, poor corporate governance.

It will be good if people will understand their type of personality (A psychometric test may help). Understanding your risk tolerance is key in developing an investment strategy/plan. Don't buy because someone else is buying. Your pockets and risk appetite are not the same. While the person may be able to accommodate a 50% loss you may not be able to take a 25% loss. Same way, the person may be satisfied with a 10% gain whereas you are looking for 100%

And please NO one can time the market. No one can predict the high and low of any stock. Understanding this may help in people planning their investment strategy.

Happy Investing

mendes911:
Does that include our Nascon Millionaire's stock and that mighty Fidelity stock?

Is NASCON PE not like 10?

rebekah2011:
Thank you Sir. Zenith now ranked higher than GTB.

Except GTB takes a huge haircut, GTB will trade at a higher PE than Zenith.

2zona:
Zenith bank result is fantastic but this market does not give a damn thing about any result with dividend yield lower than 10%, hence their was little or no reaction to Zenith result in terms of share price appreciation. I feel most other stocks will follow the same trend. In fact I feel if market did not react to zeniths good result, then most other stocks will be on full offer upon release of their result cos of low dividend yield.
INFERENCE: Don't take position ahead of release of result instead hold your cash and buy after release of result. I may be wrong anyways....

How many companies in the history of NSE or any market for that matter deliver over 10% dividend yield? I think we need to mix our expectation with some dose of reality! 10% dividend yield is an abnormality!

None of the results released (except for SEPLAT) can be said to be above market expectation. That's why you are not seeing much reaction from the market because the outcome is already reflected in current prices.

RabbiDoracle:
Market seems indifferent about Zenith result.

Result is in line with Market expectation.

RabbiDoracle:
Can they repeat this feat in 2018?

Sustainability na the koko for me.

Result is not different from expectation. FSDH expected EPS of 522kobo.

Gross earnings grew by 46.7% and PBT by 29.8%

Total dividend is 270kobo (interim 25kobo and Final 245kobo)

Check their board and impressed by some names there. Gabriel Ukpeh (GUI) is on the board. Bimbe Balogun (former CITN president is also on the audit committee as shareholders rep.

Impressed by what Zenith is doing though I am not a FAN

gloriousdawn:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/21168_ZENITH_BANK_PLC_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_MARCH_2018.pdf

N2.45 dividend. PAT of N177.6bn. EPS of 566kobo.

currentprice:
i think oga wanaj0 hav something to say about the stock for quoting post of 3 weeks ago

waiting to hear.....

Looking attractive at current price considering how low it is compared with YEAR high. So wondering whether na backward rally or whether it is now set for forward rally.

Coolcash1:
Again, for those who don't know the stock to buy they should invest in Honeywell Flour mills....The stock is expected to rally soon...


Though hate recommending stocks but just felt like help helping a bro or sis out here....

Nevertheless, DD is still advised...

#My one cent

When is the 'Dakar RALLY' going to start??