₦airaland Forum

RabbiDoracle:
It was at a high of 120 or so. Then they released their result that they showed the line of extraordinary FX loss. The stock crashed to N11 or so. The next financial year or two, it got so high again.

Correct. After the monumental loss (Small when compared with OandO's), the price crashed. They did a rights issue and price started moving up again.

shigidi:
False. He also bought

The board chairman was one arrogant Greek American. He was so rude at the AGM. Maybe he was even the CEO then.

RabbiDoracle:
It hit 104 after they declared those FX related extraordinary item.

Before or after?

mendes911:
That was the year they made billions in foreign exchange loss and you wrote their management off. I remember only Bigjay01 had the guts to buy the stock at ₦12 then and it later moved aboved ₦80.

That year I sold and bought back again at N17 and sold again. I try not to hold over valued stocks. Thinking of what to do now with my Presco and Beta Glass.

rebekah2011:
I do not agree with this. What some people have seen in UCAP this year is not meant for everyone. UCAP has subsidiaries that returned very well last year. 2017 was bullish for United Capital Securities Ltd and United Capital Asset Management Ltd. United Capital Trustees Limited is handling the Etisalat wahala. More income from that angle too. In 2015, the subsidiaries contributed dividend in the sum of N1.9b, It increased last year to N3b. This year will be more. The only draw back I can see that will stop them from paying higher dividend in the excess tax on dividend that may increase if they choose to pay more than the N3b they paid last year.

I am heavy here. But like it is with everyone, I am the MD/CEO of my portfolio. Results will show on Friday.

Thanks. I am not sure what you disagree with though. In terms of disclosure, my average holding cost for UCAP is 77kobo. It constitute almost 10% of my portfolio. Mind you I don't like Tony Elumelu's companies!

That said, when I am doing my valuation, I always discount extra ordinary income because such is not sustainable. Same applies to Dangote Flour. You need to discount the profit from the sales of their noodles section.,

RabbiDoracle:
There is always a first time. They can do it.

Even if they pay,.it will be so meaningless. Maybe 5 to 10 kobo.

They need to save up more.

I think there was a year Flour Mills made a loss. Doubt they paid any dividend that year. They had foreign currency denominated loan. Devaluation made them to incur losses due to foreign exchange translations.

Valuation of bluechip stocks is hardly based on dividend yield. Growth rate matters more than dividend yield. It is not also a good stock for traders.

Toluway:
This is my contention sir. Which I've always expressed in this forum.
The problem here is too many professors, analysis paralysis and over sensationalism

My apologies sir. Wetin small pikin like me sabi?

phemmie06:
You never loss unless you sell. You can convert your holding to long term.
A lot of people have Dáar comms, staco, Union Diagnostics, Chams etc but converted to long time. Even transcorp that become toast of most investors taught me a lot, their paper is still with me, even when I tried to average down I bought at either 4 or 3. But other stocks make me happy

Actually one will be worse off by converting useless stocks into LONG TERM portfolio. It is like keeping a corpse in the house waiting for it to come alive! Once you realise the mistake (not out of emotions), just get out and put your money in fundamentally sound stocks.

A lot of people buy out of hype or sentiments. They don't even understand how the company they are buying their stocks create value. Emotional investing is nothing but gambling.

We are currently FAR from a market crash. Oil price is robust enough. The PE's of most stocks is still less than 10. The economy is recovering with growth expected in 2018. The election risk is overrated.

Flee the market if oil price drops below the budget benchmark and 'pipeline engineers' in the ND start to tamper with the oil pipelines.

mendes911:
Bros,

Leave all these turanchi shaa. In this market, most people will only learn when they have made one or two mistakes. Period. We can only sound warnings to help them minimise the loses but they will always take that decision that they will regret, and they will come out stronger once they survive it

I paid my school fees first in 2008 and still during my extra year, paid for more courses during Oando/Conoco saga despite all the red flags. Lost so much. That was when it dawned on me that you have got to have a plan that works and stick to it. Any other thing Na noise!

Meanwhile, if guy man no fall mugu, who would we have sold Diamond and FCMB shares above ₦3.50.

I hope am not sounding cruel and self centred. Na wetin happen to me I dey write down.

Oando and Conoco! I was insulted and called names then. Those were the days.

The bulls always misled people to think that stock market is a place for some quick money. There lies the problem. They easily get trapped.

You also have those that don't understand the stocks they are buying. People are buying UCAP without discounting the Extra Ordinary income. Some don't account for seasonality of income. They just jump in and get injured. If you don't understand the business, all indicators you will use will be LAGGING INDICATORS. You need LEADING INDICATORS to be ahead of the pack.

Some can't even control their emotions. That to me us the first thing to deal with. Don't be an emotional investor.

In the short term, stocks fluctuate anyhow. However in the long term, the daily fluctuations will smoothen out and there will be a pattern.

School fees getting expensive.

Happy Investing.

Intendy:
stocks with new 52 week lows

japaul #0.36k

multiverse #0.36k

consolidated hallmark #0.29k

Niger insurance #0.48k

unity Kapital #0.40k

e tranzact #4.75k

unic #0.34k

first alum #0.37k

courtville #0.42k

stocks with new 52 week highs

Berger paint #10.35k

NEM #1.95k

NEM gradually flying

Seems NSE is collecting mid term money hence the protest.

Jesus learnt obedience by the things which he suffered! Sure people are learning.

Congrats all. This must be mid term test.

Again, just watch the oil price.

currentprice:
Whether world mkt is red or green, I will still say it again, Nigeria mkt bull is due for a break until after the result, some of the stock is trading above their Q3 fair price and in my OWN OPINION I don't see some of this stock more above the high of 3 week ago till part 2 of the bullish run

Mr mkt have the final decision

Most of the fundamentally sound stock are already at fair value. Just check GTB. PE already at about 10.

You however have some stocks with potential for growth depending on how they execute their strategy. Flour Mills is one of them.

For the risk takers, NEM, C&I Leasing are for the strong at heart.They are still fairly valued.

Share reconstruction is NOT an issue for as long as the company is creating value.


Ac

RabbiDoracle:
Wale is part of Ocean and oil.

That's where to be! Who need OandO when you can have Ocean and Oil

RabbiDoracle:
Head or tail, Wale wins.

Bad guy!!!

How do these guys feel when they are associated with this scam?

I think some of those stories are exaggerated.

Stated many times before that the Ocean and Oil people are the winners here. Remember when OandO was paying TECHNICAL SERVICE FEES to Ocean and Oil! What service can a company like Ocean and Oil render to anybody.

Stated then also that soon, the minority shareholders will find out that they own little or nothing of OandO. The complex structure was all about 'defrauding' people.

Now no one knows what the ownership structure look like.

Don't even get me started about the manipulations. I laugh when people are seeing bids on OandO? Who are those bidding and who are those selling?

As per insider trading, the less said the better.

TLAX:
In this price regulated environment for petrol, with subsidy and all the issues around it not being paid on time, i am still trying to understand how the advantage of increasing oil prices will play out. Eterna is a player in the downstream sector so i imagine the "lifting" in question is petrol.

To start with, going from news item, only NNPC still find it attractive to import petrol to the country and distributes to others. This is because of the high cost and unwillingness by the majors or independents to import.

If you take time to go through the financials of mrs, forte oil, conoil, the quarterly rev and profitability appear to be declining since oil prices started rising. Now i don't know if that corelation is real but it is worth testing.

Having said that, i think Eterna still has some way to go in share price increase but for other "reasons" that i am still studying and trying to grasp, rather than increase in international crude oil prices.

You are correct. The majors are not doing as much business as before since they are only collecting PMS from NNPC to sell since only NNPC is importing. So they are left ONLY with marketers margin which is more or less fixed. That will impact the profitability of those oil marketing companies.

Some of them are diverting or selling to the Independent marketers at 'higher' prices hence why in most towns you don't get fuel to buy at N145.

Eterna Oil has an advantage in its lubricant business where it is in partnership with Castro

Chibuking81:
It also involve buying and selling. There is increase, i.e more gain accrue to the participating companies.
https://www./process-buying-nnpc-off-opec-nigerian-crude-oil-gabrich-global

If you read the link you posted, you will notice that lifting contracts is such that there is a 'fixed margin' hence independent of Oil price.

Agbalowomeri:
If there is an increase in lifting operations

Increase in crude oil price does not translates to increase in 'lifting' operations EXCEPT there is an increase in the quantity being produced.

Again, it is good for people to understand how VALUE is created in the Companies they are buying so that they will know when they are being fed with cock and bull stories.

OBAGADAFFI:
Oando, Sahara Energy, MRS Oil and Gas, AA Rano, Bono, Masters Energy, Eterna Oil and Gas, Cassiva Energy, Hyde Energy and Brittania U. Others are NorthWest Petroleum, Optima Energy, AMG Petroenergy, Arkiren Oil and Gas Limited, Shoreline Limited, Entourage Oil, Setana Energy and Prudent Energy. The international beneficiaries are Trafigura, ENOC Trading, BP Trading, TOTAL Trading, UCL Petroenergy, Mocho, Tevier Petroleum, Heritage Oil, Levene Energy, Glencore and Latasco Supply and Trading. The five foreign refineries are Hindustan Refinery, Varo Energy, Sonara Refinery, Bharat Petroleum and Cepsa while the NOCs are India Oil Company, China (Sinopec) and South Africa (Saccoil). The NNPC trading arms are Duke Energy and the Carlson Hy

For those asking if Eterna will benefit from oyel boom.

How will someone with a 'lifting contract' benefits from the increase in the price of crude oil? Where is the link?

Chibuking81:
Only those that do their DD and those who work in spirit can see it for now. Time is coming and it's almost at hand when both those that wear glasses and those who did not wear will see it clearly.

Then I will remind you of today.

Don't forget so soon, that they are among 2017/2018 indigenous company that won contract award to lift oil. Afro and Okitipupa oil were not among.
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/01/nnpc-names-39-crude-oil-off-takers-20172018/

Last year when there was red oil boom, you need no prophet to tell you that Okomu oil and Prosco will move up, Okomu oil moved from #27 to #60/#70.

Crude oil move from 27 dollars per a barrel to 69 per a barrel within 2 years. ( https://www.oil-price.net ) premium motor spirit pump price move from #145 to #200/#250

I hope you know how crude oil lifting contract works? How does an oil trader benefit from increase in crude oil price?

Anyway, CONTINUE

Chibuking81:
Eterna might surprise their shareholders with the dividend between 70 kobo to #1.
Considering the recent boom in the oil sector.
As going concern, their recent N3bn investment on lubricant plant expansion will boost their future performance.

Read more at: https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/10/eterna-oil-invests-n3bn-lubricant-plant-expansion/
Anyway 50kobo and above will be the expectation of the majority of their shareholders based on their good performance, and Fidelity 30 kobo and above.

Which boom in the oil sector is affecting Eterna Oil? Ok ooo

We are getting to the era where every 'oil' company is expected to benefit from high oil price (including Okitipupa Oil)

Where is Afro Oil again self

currentprice:
based on Q3 cileasing is the only stock that have higher free cash per share to EPS follow by BOCGAS but bocgas is fairly valued and iiliquid

propose share reconstruction is the only bad mkt for cileasing.

cc NoMoney

it is my own opinion o

The only thing is that there is a lot of abracadabra with the executives of the company. So be careful with the value you place on their interim results.

FYI, it is more than 10% of my portfolio

rebekah2011:
Seplat Petroleum Development Company Plc: Supplementary Listing of Shares

Dealing Members are hereby notified that 25,000,000 ordinary shares of Seplat Petroleum Development Company Plc were today, 1 February 2018 listed on the Daily Official List of The Exchange.

The additional shares of 25,000,000 ordinary shares of 50 kobo each arose from the company? Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP) for the benefit of it? employees.

With this listing of 25,000,000 ordinary shares, the total issued and fully paid up shares of the Company has increased from 563,444,561 ordinary shares to 588,444,561 ordinary shares.

What is the difference between these guys and Oando boys. 17b in one fell swoop

You want to compare sleep and death??

SEPLAT is a well managed company competing with the IOC's. They have become a major player in the upstream oil and gas industry. They are currently operating a number of fields and have ramped up production above what it was when they took over.

They are currently shopping for a successor to Austin (current MD). They will be poaching someone from the IOC's to understudy him. The plan is to create a DMD position.

They have a good strategy and they are working it.

currentprice:
when elders talk we children need to sidon listening with both our ears

Oga wanajo, i understand where you are coming from. i remain dobale

Again, nothing as good as Facts Behind the Figures. Figures can be misleading.

shrink007:
I woud like to appreciate those that have been contributing to this thread, you are all wonderful. I don't know much about the stock market but i have been making good profit with the info i get from this thread applying my DD. Pls whats going on with Eterna? I will appreciate comments
Thanks

Hope you will thank them when it is time to pay tuition fee

emmanuelewumi:
I don't do insurance companies, most of them don't pay out 10% of their earnings as dividends. The return of equity from most of them is very low.

But some guys are making good money from stocks they understand who have low PE, UBA and Access at a PE of less than 3 and a dividend yield of about 25% was a good buy.

Insurance companies by law retain most their earnings. It is a highly regulated sector. Their dividend yield is however not bad.

Mpeace:
Wey that guy wey sell him diamond for WEMA. Well done to you. WEMA is on full bid. But I dont like that name WEMA. They need to change it before I buy any unit.

Unity Bank also is available. WEMA and Unity Bank are related

mendes911:
Me? When? Please check well oooo. Am not sure of anything. Do your DD very well.

You said so joo. You said price will double in one two weeks

Let the blame game start

pluto09:
I can't understand why you sold in the first place.
Is it because of all the noise?
There is nothing to fear in the market as the recent pull back is normal and healthy for the system.
Just like oga Wanajo said, oil price is the most important thing in Nigeria, there is no economy policy anywhere.

DF still represents a good value at current price and there is room for more upward movement.
With DF and DS, you will do well if you follow the price of raw sugar and wheat at the international market.

Do you understand why he bought in the first place

Some people buy out of emotion and sell out of emotion. It is emotional investing.

Coolcash1:
That is true. But the joy of the reserve addition and production growth does not outweigh the political tension in the country. As you are aware, foreign investors rank political risk high in their risk matrix before any other thing. I just hope the government will wake up to its responsibility of providing a safe and enabling environment for businesses to thrive and investments to grow...Although, this may be a herculean task for a president that has placed priority on nepotism, sectionalism and favoritism above national interest.

We are making more money this year...

My brother, the political risk is exaggerated! Foreign investors are more interested in sanctity of Contract and ability to repatriate their loot. Investors operate in war torn countries! They operate in very corrupt countries. Capitalists are only interested in MONEY. They are happy that there is no MPC because they know NOTHING is changing

The only thing that will drive them away is when your reserves start a free fall and they are not sure how they will carry their loot away. They don't invest with any EMOTION

emmanuelewumi:
But it is an Indian company.

Yes it is. Some of the people are naturalised Nigerians. Some of them now have American and Nigerian passports and get visa to visit India. We have many 3rd generation 'foreigners' now.

Also Currentprice need to factor the contribution of OTHER INCOME to the profit of the company. Not sustainable.

currentprice:
i never notice this company before but based on oga wanajo coment i just check to know it fairprice

wow..... N32 base on this Q3 for a stock of N3.10k

this is my kind of stock truly it unfortunate owner wouldn't sell

722m outstanding

Army robber

Something is cooking in that company. Only issue is that the company is illiquid. When you go supermarkets and see how many of their milks and diary products are there you know that they are up to something.

The strategic partnership and investment was a master stroke

Coolcash1:
I have said it before that the country risk is too high and disincentive to investment. A little threat from ND avengers is enough to truncate the bull ride..This should be a concern for anybody planning to hold stocks for long term in the midst of heightened uncertainties everywhere...Yours truly is watching the situation keenly as might have to pull out from the market for safety.

This one na to remind government that settlement money is due. Nothing to worry about.

Nigeria will likely add another 150,000 bopd to our production with the arrival of Egina FPSO in a matter of months. There is enough tail wind. Just watch the oil price.