₦airaland Forum

Investnow2017:
I think what he wants to know is: "what happens to my money"

He still own the shares of the company so in principle 'nothing'. Reality is that the shares will be difficult to sell and the company is no longer publicly quoted so not regulated by SEC and have no business with NSE.

freeman67:
What is the effect of this on the ordinary shareholders?

Implication is that your company is no longer a publicly quoted company. You can no longer trade the shares on the NSE

Deadlytruth:
As for OANDO, my mind is divided as to its possibility of repeating the FO story.
One one hand, the percentage crash of its price from its all time high of nearly 300 during the crazy 2007/2008 bull to the current 5.99 after touching as low as 2.9 in Feb. 2016 leaves enough reasons to believe it could return to at least N200 after the TS is lifted and the company comes out clean or "clean" of SEC's investigation especially considering that its figures have somewhat returned to green like it was with FO after about 2 to 3 years on the crashed price range.
But on the other hand I feel that FO was able to return to N300 status quo ante in a non-bullish atmosphere on the strength of its very low outstanding shares of just above 1b unlike OANDO which now has a total of about 12 bn outstanding as against the just 0.6bn they had before the reforms.
Well, as Onegentleguy says, Mr. Time holds the final verdict.

Time is the period allowed for the market to respond to the fundamentals of a company. That must always happen. As time tends towards infinity, the share price will reflect the underlying value of the company.

Yes OandO was once very high. What has happened since then?

1) Dilution. Check the current outstanding shares. At N200, what will be the capitalisation of OandO? Are there assets to justify this?

2) Poor Management : If you need evidence of a badly managed company, just look at OandO. It is a company whose management are expert in destroying value. I am sure many are not aware of the 'Technical Fees' that Ocean and OIl use to charge OandO for doing nothing. Many can't remember the story about listing on JSE to raise capital. The story about the refinery that never saw the light of the day. They venture into a territory that they have ZERO clue about. They overpaid for upstream assets. They started selling midstream and downstream assets which is their area of competency. Who did they sold to? Anyone know 'undertaker' Jimoh Ibrahim?

3) Debt: The creditors seems to own OandO now. The current suspension is due to creditors trying to take over OandO. The shareholders may wake up to discover that they own only 1% of OandO. So if the price gets to N200, the minority shareholders may find out that they only own 1% of the N200

4) Corporate Governance: A company built on deceit must collapse. OandO's problem is not really due to crash in oil price! It is due to corrupt tendencies. Everything about OandO is deceit. Who remembers the claim of oversubscription of private placement. I doubt there is any company with such flagrant abuse of ethics and compliance. They were experts in manipulating their share price!

I think people should realise that when they buy shares, they are actually 'buying' a company. So ask yourself, what is 'good' about the company you are buying. Was the account not qualified? Is OandO a going concern?

Time will tell! Only a GAMBLER will even consider OandO.

MYMINDER:
Foreign investors have a minimum market capitalization screen for stocks in countries. Only Access survives this initial screening. It is not about the price per share but the market value of the company as an INITIAL filter when it comes to foreign institutional investment. Be informed.

Brokers are playing games. Like you said, foreign funds have strict guideline on type of stocks they can invest in. Anyone that fall into the trap of the cowboy brokers will have themselves to blame. They are the beneficiary of the current frenzy.

emmanuelewumi:
It happened with Presco, I think they came in when it was around N5.00 and left at N20.00 or thereabout.

IBTC underwrote the Presco IPO so they became shareholders by picking the unsubscribed portion of the IPO. IBTC did nothing to the management.

Yayira:
we have hear! Enough of the warning.. when it's not your money.. this was how you people warned last week Thursday/ Friday only for the bull to continue his mad race on Monday. Pullback Pullback from January 4 today na 18 still no pullback.. you won by selling now let the person that bought yours keep winning whilst the MR Market decides when to reverse. Chai I've never waited on anything the way I waited for this "pullback". Smh

Ride on sister

locodemy:
Hmmm!
You are breaking my heart o.

You should ask him when he bought. Those assuming 50% every month is the NORM should better rethink!

mendes911:
The thing about Emma is that he keeps quoting NESTLE and NB whenever he preaches about long term being far better. CADBURY was once as good as nestle (in terms of fundamentals) before they went under (down below). The man that invested in NESTLE could have also invested in CADBURY.

As far as NSE is concerned, I don't believe in long term. Maximum for me is 1 year (depending on the season) sometimes 24 hours. I once made serious dough trading FCMB almost daily (buying and selling same day) and this went on for over 2 weeks (Thanks to FCMB market markers though).

Prices will always reverse.

Long term does not mean you go to sleep. Even with long term, you need to scan what is changing in the landscape. If the fundamentals changes, you need to respond. When you don't trust the management/board of the company, you need to opt out. Many people are buying shares of companies now who are managed by 'crooks'. Of course, the bulls are here so nobody care. When the euphoria is over, reality will dawn on people.

If you bought a company producing typewriters and the company did not respond to the changing landscape with respect to popularity of computers for example, soon that company will be worth nothing.

The market will ALWAYS recognise value. It is just a matter of time.

RabbiDoracle:
200k and 200m no be the same ooo.

Patapata, my village people will bail me out. But with 200m, who wan bail me out

The greed no get level.

Someone with 200k and borrow 400k is not different from someone with 200m who borrowed 400m.

Fact remains that people will always try to maximise their profit and there is nothing BAD in it. People should however learn to manage their risks based on personality, age, risk tolerance etc.

When the bulls are around, people throw reason out of the window. Focus will be on the profit to be made and they forget about the possibility of losses. In doing that, they break all the common rules of investing. They beat their chest about how wise they are. Unfortunately, when things TURN like it always do, they express shock at the turn of events.

The man likely calculated the money to be made from the margin loan not knowing that he was holding 'lemon'

emmanuelewumi:
The market was bullish in 2012, the market moved up 35% to close the year at 28079.

Unfortunately I stopped my research in 2012, and I also explained the factors responsible for the bull run of 1984 to 1996, the bear walk of 1997 to 1990.

The bull run of 2000 to 2007, the bear of 2008 to 2009, which I shared on SMN.

NSE index

2001 ended at 10,963.11 Highest was 11.358.91. Lowest was 8.163.26

2002 ended at 12,137.72. Highest was 13,005.05. Lowest was 10,173.50

2003 dont have the year end. Highest was 21,147.24. Lowest was 12,140.27

2004 ended at 23,127.38. Highest was 30,703.46. Lowest was 20,257.44

2005 ended at 24,085.76. Highest was 26,221.90. Lowest was 20,682.37

2006 ended at 33,189.30. Highest was 35,068.84. Lowest was 23,145.13

2007 ended at 57,990.22. Highest was 57,990.22. Lowest was 33,163.94

2008 ended at 31,450.78. Highest was 66,371.20. Lowest was 28,085.01

2009 ended at 20,827.17. Highest was 31,450.78. Lowest was 19,803.60

You can compare the NSE index movement with the crude oil price.

Tolktob:
A greedy man !

How is he different from someone who has 200k and borrowed N400k to invest in the capital market.

What do you think is drawing people to the market now expecting 5% gain everyday?

Anyway, it is a matter of time before we revisit some posts here.

emmanuelewumi:
Who does that? Sold your house for 200m and borrowed additional 400 million.

Nothing strange about it. He was taking a margin loan most likely. He use his N200m to get a margin loan of N200m so invested N600m in the Capital Market with the expectation of 100% returns within a short time thus having N1.2bn. He will now return the N400m with interest and still have his N800m left!

The money to be made was attractive so it will be 'stupid' not to put all his all into it.

He paid expensive tuition fee!

currentprice:
do u think something happen to UBA as well? Uba traded 69b unit toady

Haba!!!!!!

Investnow2017:
I agree with you. I laugh when I see folks comparing what is going on in 2018 with what happened in 2008. There is no relationship, maybe they have forgotten all that contributed. How many IPOs have you seen so far. What we must realize is that the economy has taken some time too to consolidate around certain economic policies, also drawing upon global dynamics. There is, for me, a wide difference between 2018 and 2008. Did I have the knowledge and skills that I have now back then in 2008? Many here will say the same.

Go back and check.

Whatever happens, stocks with sound fundamentals are here to stay except for some shake ups due to elections which is a normal trend globally.

That is why even if certain companies that have not released their numbers climb to 100 by the turn of the year, I will have no regrets not buying because I convinced myself that certain risks are not worth taking - where are the numbers and news to support the craze?

Which economic policy? The only thing we do is SHARE oil money in Nigeria.

Yayira:
My dear, So long as there's no civil war in any oil rich Africa country, crude oil price will keep going up.. deal or no deal the price will keep going up...do you ever wondered why the price fell sharply from $112 in 2014 ? 2014 which happens to be the year the civil war started in Libya ? Cause they stole alot ! Who go buy oil when him get plenty ? Now Their reserves are empty !. so they'll buy or try to start another war.

Which African country is Oil Rich?

I hope Ghana will not make the mistake Nigeria made.

Yayira:
the only thing that'll slow this bull is the election.. leave the oil.. it's heading to $ 100 and above

Maybe in Ghana. Election hardly affect the market. Oil prices does! In 2007, we had an election. We knew what happened in the market.

emmanuelewumi:
To succeed in the capital market. One needs to,

1. Have a knowledge of the economy, business, finance and investment.

2. Have a steady source of income from a job, business or investments. Multiple streams of income.

3. Know how to value a stock and buy below its intrinsic value.

4. Be patient, provided you have done your due diligence and you are knowledgeable on what you have invested in.

Nigeria has only ONE economy - OIL.

Once the oil price crashed the economy crashes along with it. So just focus on the crude oil price!

bigjay01:
The hour is getting nearer! 2007/2008 easily comes to mind

Nothing to worry about once you have an exit strategy and you don't have illiquid stocks.

We will get there when you start to see Initial Public Offers. None yet so we still got some fuel in the tank.

Dangote in his interview expect the market to double this year. He is also selling. He said he sold close to $700m last quarter.

You done pay your tuition fee so you got nothing to worry about.

Most of the exposure of the banks seems to be to the downstream sector so not affected by the increase in crude oil price.

Not all 'oil' companies are affected by the crude oil price. For those affected, some of them did hedging so they 'benefited' from the low oil price regime so may not benefit that much from the high oil price.

Seplat and to some extent OandO are the only oil company listed on the NSE that should benefit from the high oil price. Not also that as the oil price increases, the cost of production also start to increase in tandem! So the impact is not as much as people may assume.

The likes of Conoil, Total, Eterna, MRS, Mobil etc are NOT real beneficiaries of the high crude oil price.

Investnow2017:
I wonder how people call a miniscular pull back as BEAR. A day or two pull back cannot be said to be bear. I think the question that should dominated the mind of the INVESTOR is: Are my holdings still maintaining their fundamentals? Has anything significant changed? How is the market sentiment towards NSE?

You get jittery when you are not sure where you have put your money. Investors put their hard-earned money into stocks with sound fundamentals, not on entities with questionable performance, pedigree or ones that have not released any meaningful result for a year or more. What do you expect to receive? You invest into what you know TODAY and can fairly predict, NOT on HOPE!

I have prayed for this pull back so I can load more

Were the initial purchase based on any fundamentals?

HOPE is NOT a strategy

Mpeace:
They dont produce crude oil(mining). Its a lifting contract on behalf of nnpc, they have no oil well like conoil, oando, total etc

Those companies don't produce oil as far as I know

Soon NOSPETCO will come to NSE and people will BUY because it is an 'Oil Company@ and crude oil price is rising

Momoney54:
I now understand the meaning of NSE is collecting school fees...

No correspondence course. So you need to pay and attend classes to understand. No selling of manuals self.

mendes911:
Some people have paid "NSE Registration Fees" today. "Course Registration Fees" will come way down the line.

Na only Application fee NSE dey collect now. Registration fee go be later! People should not forget to make caution deposit sha!

bigjay01:
my oga i remember the first words of caution i read then was from you (sometime around 2007).

The exuberance at the time no gree me hear word. the rest is history. I sure paid my tuition. Some newbies must refund me my tuition; and i will gladly take it back without apologies or feeling sorry for them. it is an essential part of the cycle

They will start with Caution Deposit.

The bulls are here. Every stock is a BUY. Hopefully when it is time to SELL, we will have someone to SELL to otherwise na to hold for LIFE be that.

Anyone buying Chellarams?

mendes911:
I have seriously forgotten his name but I can recall you were part of the forum then (Hope am correct). That was before SMN (I believe that should be NewNigerians....).

Kai!!! You done 'OLD' oooo. Those were the days

Make we small boys just dey look

mendes911:
Oga Wanaj0, N40M in 2008 was far more that international school fees abroad. I pray none of us in the forum will pay NSE tuition fees this year. Worse case, let it be broker fees. LOL.

But on a lighter note, you can't afford not to take risk in this life. It's more risky not to take risk at all. We must play with NSE, either we lose or we gain.

The N40m then was to pay for the 4years of undergraduate course.

When you gamble. you should know that you are gambling and not investing. Just watch as companies that have not released results for years will start gaining prices. Soon you will be hearing that price of Dangote Flour is too high so can I BUY Onwuka Interbiz instead?

mendes911:
2008 is still so fresh n my mind.

And that fear seems to be cutting short of my profit during this bull but I no fit complain. I have been locking in profits now and then, at the slightest provocation.

Preservation of capital. I cannot come and carry last again. I still remember what I lost after 2008.

I remember on that our old "home", one guy that took a facility of over N40M and dumped it on NSE. I have forgotten his name!

N40m is tuition fee to school abroad as international student

NSE go still collect Tuition fee this time around. Everyone is now an expert! We go collect testimonies later.

Happy Investing.

RabbiDoracle:
That is an indicator. An early indicator.

I'm hearing people talk about stocks nowadays. But my barber is yet to say anything

Leading or Lagging indicator??

onegentleguy:
Gbam !! ...But pls dont say it too loud. ...just whisper it.
...For Mr TIME already knows this and you can be rest assured that he shall act accordingly !!

DF has an extraordinary item from sale of its Noodles division. Discount that in your analysis.

onegentleguy:
Except for having a detailed understanding of their business model, I will score them a 7 on a scale of 1-10 on the other factors u mentioned sir.
...I'll rate their CG as ok when compared to the relatively mediocre CGs we get to experience in this clime.
For me their channel of profit delivery is also healthy with enough room for much more growth (...pointers are in this direction when u take a cursory look at their Q3 report).
Again caverton may not be bulling in their area of operation, but it makes sense to believe that they are clearly the market leaders in this segment.
Finally, its difficult to have a perfect fit on the board and management of a Nigerian coy, but am inclined to believe that that of caverton is also relatively strong.
In all I believe that what the present CAVERTON as a company represents, is not a true reflection of their share price right now. ...My take is that the price of this coy had had to suffer from the effect of liquidity. ...but even at that, I see only one way, and that's up.
...Luckily, our hot money brothers are now also thinking along the same direction.

...Still much respect sir. I salute u !!

Pls kindly note that this is not an investment advise. ...DD advised as always.

Market leader ke Ever heard of Bristows? Do you know how they get their contracts? You think they are competitive?

Anyway, all the BEST.

Agbalowomeri:
But Oga you got my drift

Still loyal oo. Was thinking of suing my broker in arrears for oversight!

Manonamission:
Never mind. He is intoxicated already. Diamond effect Seplat only traded at about N151 in 2016.

I had a trap set at N150 and it did not touch it hence my question.

Lowest was N151.74