₦airaland Forum

afamako:
@Wanaj0

I was just thinking of a different way to approach this MTN thing, since MTN Nigeria is responsible for 40% MTN Group's profits and are currently trading at about 420Rand ($59.xx) on the SA exchange, does it make some sense to use 40% of this list price as a guide to MTNN value? This translates to about $24, in which case there isn't a discount. Responses welcome from all.

Nice thinking. I did my valuation based on historical profit that shows a PE of <9.00 at the $25 per share.

The way you've done though sound logical will not stand scrutiny for myriads of reason.

blest:
Oga Wanajo, with all due respect i don't agree with you.I believe a nation is general perception of what we call ourselves.i think you're speaking from a section of the society.All my life in nigeria and abroad Nigerians are one of the brightest people i have come across. the only way we can change this perception is to send the right msg to our bothers and not make a final declaration of them.
Thank you for all contributions , men have i learnt from you.i guess others can too

That we are bright is not in doubt. It is not the same as having a reading culture. We only tend to read for exams.

How many libraries do we have in Nigeria? That tells you something

Ask how many hours people spend in a week reading and how many they spend watching home videos.

I can go on and on!!!!

Rhemagirl:
I can see some of the gurus online.Please kindly let me know the update on the NAHCO offer.Thanks

678% oversubscribed. So expect that you will ahve money to spend from the refund money!!!!!! Be on the look out for your returned cheque

blueband:
I just offloaded my equityasur.After making a profit of 100 percent.I only bought in November.Greed almost allow me no sell.But like the gurus always say, "stick to your exit plan and don't be greedy"

That's INVESTING 101!!!! It is also a sign that you know what you are doing. Congratulations

Anyone on the Cappa and Dalberto train!!!!We just dey cruise sslowly and steadily. No bumps no storms!

Akpotogun, met many Nigerians who on moving houses they mistakenly open books only to find cheques/money inside.

I told someone to hide his money in books and he can be sure armed robbers no go even open am.

That's just black amn for you. we beleive in 'shiny shiny' things

blueband:
If you put the book in simple words like you guys have done on Nairaland it will be a big sell.Black people read.Many people read this thread.In my hospital alone 3 of us are so commited to this thread.There are many silent readers who do not contribute .I followed this thread for 3 months before making my first contribution.

My brother, Nigerians will not even open the book to find out the content.

Moreover, if Seun ask people to pay 500.00 per annum for access to Nairaland you will see as people will RUN!!!!

You need to understand our mentality. What is making this thread to be interesting is because it is free. Once a cost is attached, we will normally pick race.

Taht said, I think Akpotogun is the best candidate. Maybe Easimoni also. Fatherof2 go dey too busy and me I no sabi BOOK

blueband:
Pumping,
Just realised that you live in Philadelphia.And to think I was there last week.I for come "dobale" for you.You guys are doing great.Have you,Fatherofmany,Wanajo all thought of coming together and writing a book on "The Nigerian Stock Exchange and Suicide Bombing".

Walahi it will be a big sell.Just make sure you use your nairaland names.

Good idea. Akpotogun is a good candidate.

Me, I no sabi book talk less of writing one.

Aside, Nigerians, nay blacks, hardly read!!!! With all the info on this thread, sometimes you get amazed by the questions some ask. To some people, reading is the greatest punishment for them in the whole world.

upward:
Oga Wanajo, I tend to agree with you. But some people have already gotten their PZ bags, what is your take on this seeing that it also has one of the lowest PE ratios in that sector- 19.49, released an impressive result(though not FANTASTIC).

@PUMPING, Happy new week. Hope you filled your PZ bag so we can continue with this PHB flight?

Personally, I don't do low margins and low growthrate. If you can't grow your PAT above 25% then you will rank very low.

That said PZ is not in my books.

On MTN, MTNI (MTN International) is a publicly traded company (listed on the Johannesburg and New York stock exchanges) and as such cannot offer forward looking statements. Each unit of the fund is equivalent to approximately 400 units of MTN, be advised at the end of the investment these shares will be exchanged for shares of the exit “SPV” at a yet to be determined ratio.

That's the info I got about the profit forecast (none is available)

With 400 MTN shares per unit, the shares are being sold @ US$25. Not bad for those that can wait for 3 years or more.

[quote author=invisible! link=topic=31554.msg1870756#msg1870756 date=1200870825]@ all the gurus in the house, what is so good about unilever with a very high PE, as opposed to UACN with a lower PE. why should we buy unilever? as advised by Father of 2 earlier.[/quote]while waiting for the gurus to answer, I will personally not go near any of them.

Unilever is operating in a sector with many competitors and tight margins.

UACN has a relatively low PE because of extra ordinary items. That's what's been boosting their profit for some years now. Likely to declare a bonus this year though. In terms of fundamentals, nothing special. I am actually selling.

Would only BUY Afribank if there was a GUN on my head and was not able to get away. It does not meet my investment criteria

aktopgun:
@wanajo

   

u running for president or something boss?

i don't mind paying tax but what would i be getting for the tax i pay? at least here i have light 24hrs a day to keep up with u guys and i have good roads, a workable transport system etc. what did i get for the tax i paid whilst at home other than having to buy my own diesel for my own generator, paying security company for the area i lived in with other residents,using tankers to provide my own water?

tell me, who would use the tax i paid or will pay? obviously i don't have an issue with tax payments but not because i'm in the diaspora because e money i invest in the NSE is helping the nigerian economy as well. so there  

And how much awoof money you dey get there? Go invest am in your economy there and get -5% return!!!!!!

Just wait till the DIShonorable members wake up from their sleep. You can't continue to make ARM ROBBER return!

easimoni:
My commission is now 1%, used to be 1.5% Good luck.

It is a function of your portfolio size and transaction value. For 'big' clients, you will be offered 1%. It is not for everybody!!!!

My broker never charged me overdraft. Will just tell them to chill that I will fund my account

How will I pay overdraft when I did not apply for one.

Akptogun, we need to bring you people in to the TAX net. You can't be cycling in and cycling out without paying any TAX. You can do that where you are so why do it in Nigeria.

The dishonorable members in the house o rep should introduce capital gains tax for Nigerians in diaspora!!!

On NEM, abeg, I don get all the NEM that I need @ 0.55 in 2006. Me I am just cruising on the train. You can enter at any stop and comedown at any stop for me, I am on a LONG ride

Now all you diasporans making TAX FREE money in Nigeria, we need to do something about you people. You make money here without contributing to our development. That is a SIN

So all of you start a charity now in Nigeria

SKYE IPO is not looking BAD. Worth considering.  SAY YES

BTW, they have the best advert.

aktopgun:
@wanajo

and the investors?

The investors don't have a problem. It is those positioning for Michael Ibru's wealth.

aktopgun:
ETHOS PRESS ANNOUNCEMENT

Thursday, 17 January 2008

An Ethos Private Equity-led consortium has today announced a pioneering strategic investment into leading Nigerian Bank, Oceanic Bank International Plc (‘Oceanic’ or the ‘Bank’). The consortium, comprising Ethos Private Equity and Old Mutual Investment Group South Africa (“OMIGSA”), invested US$130 million in Oceanic’s recent public offering. Oceanic is a new generation bank having commenced operations in 1990 and was listed on the booming Nigerian Stock Exchange in 2004.

Oceanic’s current strategic shareholding is owned and managed by Dr (Mrs) Cecilia Ibru (the wife of the founding Chairman and patriarch of the Ibru family – Olorogun Michael C. O. Ibru).

Ethos Partner, Ngalaah Chuphi comments, “Since the close of Fund V, Ethos has been actively pursuing investment opportunities in Sub-Saharan Africa; this is our first foray into West Africa. This strategic stake represents a unique opportunity to participate in Africa’s fastest growing banking sector through an investment in one of Nigeria’s tier one banks. Oceanic is well placed to capture the benefits of a rapidly growing Nigerian economy with tremendous opportunities to grow its businesses by lending to the rapidly growing real economy.”

Mark Gevers, Head of Old Mutual Investment Group of South Africa’s Private Equity division, adds, "The Nigerian banking industry follows a sound regulatory framework and has recently undergone a successful first round of consolidation. The untapped potential for financial and banking services is particularly attractive. We are excited by this transaction, which enables OMIGSA to expand our African footprint in partnership with Ethos and Oceanic.”

According to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), a significant percentage of cash in circulation in Nigeria is outside the banking system. Nigeria is at the moment mostly a cash economy. The CBN is encouraging banks to bring into the banking system all this liquidity through rolling out branches to collect deposits.

“Such deposits will then be available to finance lending activities and growth in the Nigerian economy” reflects Ethos Partner, Anthonie de Beer. He concludes, “The majority of Nigeria’s c. 140 million strong population has no access to regular banking products such as mortgages, car loans, credit cards, etc. Most transactions are cash based. Thus the opportunity for banks is immense.”

Thanks

That is to say that Cecilia has finally edged out other competitors from the Ibru family. Her shareholding, plus her son and fathers own plus this one shows that she is in charge and in control.

Pity all the hangers on who are waitinng for a windfall!

shigidi:
@ wanajo, what price do you see for vitafoam. please im beginning to get interst in the stock.

It should oscillate between 9.00 and 12.00 especially if it comes up with a better than average result. Result is due this month. Year high was 11.00. Not my favourite stock though.

aktopgun:
thought this would tickle your fancy fellas

JOHANNESBURG, Jan 17 (Reuters) - South Africa's Ethos Private Equity said on Thursday it and a consortium, including Old Mutual Investment Group South Africa <OML.L>, had invested $130 million in Nigeria's Oceanic Bank <OCBK.LG>.

Ethos said the investment is the group's first in Africa outside South Africa. (Reporting by Marius Bosch

What's the nature of the investment? Debt or equity?

Fatherof2, you should be cycling out of BOC now. It is now 12.00. Maybe you should start looking at Vitafoam (don't like the company because of competition) but the result should be out soon along with BOC, Based on your 15% to 10%, BOC don surpass that since we put am for radar

Invisible, not sure of any hard and fast rule with regards with subsidiaries, associates and parent company. You have to treat each one on an individual basis. I fancy the one with near monopoly, high growth rate and solid management. I am wary of those with Extra Ordinary items.

As per Linkage, I don't think you have enough data to evaluate and calculte the EPS or P/E. The oustanding shares of most of those companies are shrouded in secrecy. By the time the news will hit you hard, you will not beleive it.

windywendy:
@Wanaj0, I'm just taking a second look at this MTN deal. The deal dey sweet oh, i'm seriously liking it! Going by last year's dividend alone, the dividend yield is close to 10% -- that's not bad at all. I think it's a SOLID SOLID long term buy. Considering the company's prospects, can you just imagine what the capital appreciation would be even in the next 1yr talkless of 3? Abi didn't they just get the 3G license in March 07? Plus there's going to be an exit mechanism, which I believe will be very liquid. What's your problem with the offer? abeg make we discuss before I commit. Thanks.

Not sure the level of information you have but this is what I can piece together

Share offered at about $25/share to investors. The fund your broker is floating did not state the number of shares that your $10,000 is buying. They might have valued MTN @ $50/share. Will you still BUY at that price?

Talking about growth, just got a report today that GLO now has more subscribers than MTN thus showing that GLO is eating into MTN's market share.

Uptill 2006, there was a tax exemption. Actually MTN was getting tax credit. From 2007, they will start to pay tax thus eating into the profit and reducing the CAGR.

For me the major concern is that I am not sure that the broker floating the fund will be sincere in its dealing. They are basically offering you a balck box. No profit forecast. Nothing!!!!!!

That said, market sentiments should favour MTN. I will however hedge my risk. Will definitely manage my exposure. There is potential for capital appreciation but not really clear how YOu will benefit because you are not buying the shares and you do not know the basis of teh valuation.

$10,000 is equal to 1 unit. How many MTN shares are in that unit. No one knows!!!!!

dollyp1cute:
How many private placements did they have. The one I heard was at $10,000 for a unit and minimum was $100k, it just closed last week from whatI heard.

@windywendy which brokers are setting the fund up.

3 years is a very long time on NSE unless a return of 500% minimum is guaranteed, abi.

That $10,000 for a unit is the fund!!! MTN share is not priced @ $10,000 per share.

rasputinn:
Wanaj0,just wondering do you if the final allotments for international breweries IPO and Japaul PO are out yet.
Access is returning monies for unallotted shares with 5% interest.

Well,we'll continue to wait for union diagnostic to be listed

Don't have any info on Japaul and International Breweries. None is on my radar screen

cmi:
@Wanajo - I thought MTN PP was set at a minimum of $5M or N600+M.  Have they moved the post closer so the masses can chop-with?

$5m for individuals and $10m for financial institutions. Offer completed I think in December 2008.

The financial institutions are now turning their investment to a 'quasi' close ended fund that invests ONLY in MTN. So it is a backdoor way to invest in MTN.

windywendy:
On the MTN PP, I just got a document from one of the issuing houses inviting me to participate in a fund that will be invested in the MTN PP. Does anyone know how I can get my hands on the original PP document? The projections and historical results are looking really good.

I think the PP was done and completed n November/December. The price was about $25/share.

The one I got from my broker did not show a profit forecast. Very scanty in terms of figures. Just story.

Things to take note is the growth is reducing. Tax holiday is over. MTN has started paying dividend. Trailing PE @ $25/share is about 9.00. You will be locked in for almost 3 years. Nothing in the prospectus that I got from my brokers shows or indicates the price at which they are offering 1 MTN share.

Not a bad gamble but prefer CHAMS!!!!!

damoche07:
P kease can someone please answer these my questions.

1) Why has Big Treat(a bread and confectioneries coy) flew from 2.50k at listing about 1month ago and is currently trading for 10.01?Someone should be arrested.

2) Who are the people that traded 102million units of transcorp today? Is something creeping up?

3) When will Union diagnostics list their shares? Cashcraft siad October.Did they mean October 2008?

4) First has released certificates. Will it pay for its sins?

Up to the gurus please.

Well, they are jerking the price up. Only 4 deals and 15k units traded. When it reaches the exit point of the major players watch as they will dump the shares. Ask yourself, a share that was just listed who are those trading? Are tehy trading certificates or are the shares already in CSCS? Well, that's the mago mago of the NSE. I don't even bother to look as such stocks.

Nothing happening yet on Transcorp though there are rumours of exciting news. For those that bought the IPO, they are in for a LONG wait.

Not sure when listing will be done. But always add at least an extra 6 months to whatever is in the prospectus. Consolidated Hallmark was for listing in September 2007 and we are still waiting.

First Bank is strong to weather the storm if it take a dip, buy more because when Q1 2008 results comes out, it will be mind blowing.

upward:
Anybody watching PZ?

Nothing fascinating about PZ. Not impressed in the intermim result. Growth is just marginal.

alliednetw:
This is the practice here bros.I bought Guinea Insurance PP for 1.20 when it was officially 65k.Hasnt it gone to 4naira?

You bought Guinea Insurance after the CLOSURE of the PP. When the offer was opened, they were begging people to BUY.

walcolm:
to prove that they collected N4 per share should be fairly easy. you pay with a cheque that ties "Santrust/Chams PP" that is evidence enough

but this type of thing is becoming very rampant!!! shouldnt we highlight this to the regulators. we are being shortchanged and the thing is becoming a racketeering issue

SANTRUS/CHAMS will still bear the N2.50. The premium will be collected in Cash or paid into another corporate account. Don't forget that the onus will be on you to show proof. SANTRUST can even give you a receipt for the N2.50 and a receipt for teh premium under another heading!!!

The only way to stop is for people to buy @ 4.00. However, be rest assured that if people are told of a listing @ 5.00 with capital apprecaition to 10.00 there will be another middle man who will collet @ 4.00 and sell @ 6.00. Law od demand and supply will be at work. Sad but true.

walcolm:
i thought u said it was santrust that's playing the fast one. is skye bank doing it too?

Some staff in the two firms are doing it. It will not be the company itself.

BabaOlu:
@ alliednetw

Chams PP

Contact me at once if you're interested on 08028338497 before the end of business today. My contact still have it till tomorrow morning.

Interested in 400,000 units.

aktopgun:
IF SOMEONE IS REALLY PEEVED AT THEM, TRUST ME ITS SOOO EASILY DONE

I'VE SEEN MORE DIFFICULT ALLEGATIONS PROVED. WE LIVE IN A DAY OF TECHNOLOGY DON'T FORGET

No way to prove anything. The guy will deny that he ever said so. It is only if you bought @ 4.00 that you can make noise and even then, the guy can claim that is hadnling charges for helping you process your application. Very little that you can do.

aktopgun:
@wanajo et bivins1

on SANTRUST
shouldn't they be reported or something, thats gotta be illegal surely

How do you prove that? What is the evidence?

wanaj0:
SANTRUST I think started with 4.00 or so!!!!!!

Well, there are offers and there are OFFERS

Our post crossed each other. SANTRUST did start with 4.00. was offered 100,000 units @ 4.00 on the 8th of January from someone in SANTRUST.