₦airaland Forum

pumping777:
He be like say you dey here. Missus no find am funny again. I have decided to remain loyal and behave myself. Fiscal Year End declared. Make I take care of my biggest investment

Abeg, take care of the ONLY investment. Others na supporting cast.

RoughCut:
When the cat is not on the scene the mice would come out to play

A beg stockfield marshall wanaj0 you go 'download' some of your insights for 08 for us before you go on extended leave of absence

Abeg, I no know book OOO. Don't give a dog a BIG name in order to hang it.

yodiyokun:
@Wanaj0,

Welcome back!!!.

We all missed your insightful contributions.

For those in Canada - I hope you guys were not snowed in yesterday oooo!!!!. Na wa for the storm.

@Pumping - you ran away from mother nature .

Na that una cold dey drive people like me away from that place. For peeps like me, anything below 20 ^oC is cold. How some of you survive constantly in sub zero is amazing.

Abeg, make I go sunbath outside jo.

toyibanj:
@ wanaj0,
Welcome back from being in his presence. I'm sure you're pregnant with insight on the NSE 2008 and hopefully you'll share some with the forum. Your contribution was greatly missed and the forum went very technical (RSI, MACD, SMA) for some of us.

Was only thinking about NSE as per how it will contribute towards fulfilling His mandate.

Na the GURUS fit dey discuss such big and TECNICAL issues. Those of us that do not know book always like the KISS (Keep It Short and Simple)

MyPeace:
lol, have been trying to catch up for the last 5hrs. Thank God at last. make una no blind my eyes ooo.

@wanajo
Welcome back, how is baba Adeboye? l see say your level really changed, and don pass Redstar Transexp level.

please don't disappear for long again

Was away for just 3 working days in the first instance!!!!!!!

Well, as una don monopolise the Transexp man don move to another level. Congratulobia on moving the stock price from less than 0.70 to over 2.00!!!!!

Can't see anything fantastic in the AIICO offer. Profit forecast for AIICO and COSTAIN appears very very ambitious. It will be a surprise if they achieve that.

crazyT:
@ Wanaj0

Welcome back, I'll like to join you to the next level o.


I am still waiting for your post on financial education for children that you mentioned yesterday.
I have read from different peeps on this topic but would like to have your take on the topic too.

Btw, my Capoil don pass 1000% o, I have cashed in my investment and little profit (thanks to you) I still have about 70% there chilling

My view will be a bit biased based on my religious inclination.

For starters, life is not just about money. So the education of your children must be total and complete. Objective should be to have  a total child that is complete mentally, cared for physically, instructed in the word of God and to be cared for socially. So make the training to be TOTAL.

On financial education it is part of what they get by studying the word of God. The seven years of abundance and the seven years of famine in the land of Egypt is a good story that you can use to teach children about basic VALUES and PRINCIPLES. For me that's what they need to know now. Not the methodologies. Once the VALUES and PRINCIPLES are thought, they will go on from there.

Don't also lose sight of the fact that the children don't really have to be like you. So be careful of trying to fit them into a 'MOLD'.

Once they learn the VALUES and PRINCIPLES via story telling (most children love stories) the rest is simple. Let them decide whether stock market investing fits into their 'personality'. For all you know, they may be at home with other forms of investing.

Be willing to always answer the STUPID questions that they will ask once interest is generated.

As per the age to start, please start as soon as they reach the age of acountability/decision. It ranges between 4 or 6 for most children. It can be earlier for some.

Ijay07:
@ all,
Thanks for sharing all this knowledge.
I have a friend who wants to sell 600K units of wema for 12naira. Will you consider it a good move if i get the units now, as opposed to getting it during the public offer?

Go for it.

@SGN, man day OOOOO

@Gees and DrDaniel, Auditorium is wonderful. The atmosphere was electrifying. Sorry, could not take pictures from the altar. Unconfirmed reports talked about close to N7b spent on it. The place is now a city. But how did you got involved in NOSPETCO

Well, I don't invest in things I don't understand. Was thoroughly convinced that NOSPETCO was not making the kind of money they talked about from petroleum marketing. If it sounds too good to be true it is most probably not real. However, I have close friends who invested and made money. Was I tempted to join them, of course! But I still have to stick to my convictions based on my value. Added to that is the returns vis avis the risk did not agree with my financial plan. I would be taking up unnecessary risk. I don't need that amount of returns to meet my financial goal. Would like to know the lessons to be drawn from this. Note that my friends did make money from the scheme though.

@ Naomi 101, nothing definite on Consolidated Hallmark. We are still expecting certificates from the PP. However, I expect the listing to be before the end of Q1 2008.


@SAMSTONE, moved to the NEXT LEVEL in all spheres of life. Basically, my LEVELS don change.

Shigidi, exit strategy is developed based on your peculiar situation.

On the Oceanic you talked about, as at the time I bought, I only needed 100% appreciation to meet my investment objective. It was not planned to be my 'core' holding. I bought then because it was seriously undervalued and was ready to wait for 18months for the market to come to terms with that. Note this was in May 2006. Bought 100,000 units @ 7.00.

By December 2006 Oceanic was already 15.00. That time also I needed money for Dangote Sugar IPO since I believe that it has more upside than Oceanic. I also need to lock in profit. So with my exit strategy met, I sold 60% of my holdings at 15.00. That's Part 1

In January 2007, had some money and wanted to BUY WEMA at not more than 3.50. Was not able to get what I wanted so had to look at other stocks quickly. Reason is because after January, the party would have started. So had to go back to OCEANIC (that's why I don't like trading). Bought Oceanic now at 14.00. before you say that was wonderful, note that Oceanic declared a bonus of 1 for 4 and dividend. Was now buying ex. Div. Was not too worried because based on the new forecasts, I can see another 100% in Oceanic.

By October 2007, Oceanic was already 33.00 which I considered over valued (I will not BUY Oceanic at 33.00) so I gave a SELL order. PART 2

Note that I also bought the Oceanic PO because I know that I will sell and would like to re enter again since I can now see the value in Oceanic

So you can see that the decisions were based on my 'peculiar' situation. So no wrong or right answer just who you are. One other thing was that I always make sure that I am not under pressure to SELL any stock. Pressures make one make irrational decisions.

@Windywendy, good contribution

frankiriri:
I have never liked the highlighted phrase. Warren buffer has all his money in the stock market and I am definite that he can not afford to lose it. It is only when you trade short term that maxim may hold water. Whenn you invest for the long term and you pick fundamentally sound stocks the maxim does not apply.
Also its young people that can even afford to take risks as they have a longer life span to recover, financially, from any downturns in the market.
The experiment is in line with many others that have been conducted to show that the best way to invest in an 'efficient market' is to invest long term.

Frankiriri, I get your gist but you need to put the statement in context.

No one really wants to lose money. Your risk appetite will be evident in your strategy which will govern the stocks you invest in. That's why Buffet will not invest in the dot com shares even with all the technical analysis pointing at an upward movement of the prices.

As you grow your portfolio, you will start to be defensive. Simply because staying where you are is far better than going down. However, for some, he that is down needs fear no fall.

So individual situation will affect your strategy.

pumping777:
Congratulations

Thank you my brother.

Was thinking about writing about how individual personalities affects your investment strategy and philosophy.

Saw your comment on margin facility, your view has to do with WHO YOU ARE. That is key.

Read a book (can't remember the ACTUAL title now) talking about GREED making one to take a risk that are not necessary. The easiest way is assuming I have an investmnet objective of having $10m portfolio by the time I am 40. Having started early, if by 35 I am already at $9m. That means that there are certain RISKS that will be unnecessary for me to achieve my goal. For example, going for a 50% returns per annum is not really in line with my financial goal. Same way, depending on your financial goal and where you are now in the actualisation, a margin facility may not fit into the plan

The question is how many people have clearly DEFINED financial goals? Not just making money. With clearer financial goals, people will be able to develop strategies that are in line with those goals.

Brian Tracy has some good materials on goal setting and goal setting methodologies.

Well, my LEVELS don CHANGE. I've MOVED UP.

hispy99:
abeg, make you define this NEXT LEVEL o, abi na only you wan reach there?

Nothing to define there. Just follow who know road

texas543:
@ wanajo

Welcome back, we miss you soooooooo much

Thank you my brother. Moved to the NEXT LEVEL already. So my LEVEL don change.

My Peace, no talking with you till you FED EX Tran Express shares to me OOOOOOO.

Wa OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Was away as part of my plans to move to the NEXT LEVEL. Just came back and see a lot of pages to grapple with.

Due to demand of profession and calling, will be taking extended leave of absence from the thread.

To start with, CONGRATS to AKPTOGUN. You do well. Salute madam also. She sure deserve an award. Greetings to pickin also. As he grow in stature, may he also grow in FAVOUR before man and God.

To the simple ones, Yes Oceanic certficates are ready but being sent in batches. You can ask your broker to pick it up for you.

First Bank started sending refund money. As usual it is in batches. For those with 'BIG' money just go to First Registrars (yes First Registrars and not Meristerm) to collect your refund. Had a friend who walked in to pick up his multimillion Naira refund. With him using margin facility, he got his fingers burnt. Secodn time in a year. First was his pick on WAPCo. He is a strong guy so no shaking. Made HUGE losses but he has not despair. Will talk about 'personality' later.

On what is moving the Chemical and Paint sector, nothing really. Firstly, most of those companies are wrongly classified. As for CAPL, an exceptional item last year and this year is driving their price. They've sold some assets hence the HUGE PAT. That definitely is not sustainable. NGC was undervalued. As at last year June it was trading at 4.00. With the growth (even if moderate) a price of 28.00 is a fair one. Liquidity was an issue but that should improve. They are having a slow down in profit in some of the business units but that is being compensated for in the new investments that they made. They were to raise funds in Q3 via bonds but not sure whether this happen. Bought at 4.00 last year. Bought at 12.65 this year. If I have cash, will likely buy more. NGC has shares in UNIC insurance. So I can use NGC to invest indirectly in the insurance sector. Like UNIC, Shonekan is the single largest shareholder in NGC. Will be surprised if there is no bonus declaration this year (YE 2007). That is because it will be five years now without bonus though consistent with dividend payment.

On First Bank, I wish I have enough units there, then I can go and sleep. The dividend alone will be enough to go round the world. First Bank is set and poise for great things. How many banks can write of N10bn in a single year and still declare profit and remain standing. FBN did that. Unlike UBN that is stuck in the old ways of doing things, FBN has adapted to changing times. There is nothing that ANY of the new generation banks has on First Bank. During the FBN offer, I was made to understand that FBN basically wanted to show the new generation banks that they are up to the challenge. They sure prove that. Don't expect much based on the FY March 2008 result. However, by the time the Q1 2008 result is out, expect many to jump on the bandwagon. First Bank is just too juicy.

on Costain, yet to study the prospectus but I can see a lot of ambition here. Yes they are venturing into furniture and so what? They are talking about contracts. Civil contracts don't ahve HUGE margins because of competition. Except you are a Julius Berger, that sector is a challenging one. One stock that gave a KILL was Cappa and Dalberto. Not so liquid but has experienced a turn around and delivered on promise.

I hope Costain goes on to deliver on promise. There is a lot of hype around them.

On FCMB, that is a good stock. However, people need to get off the idea that once the TS placed on a stock is lifted, the prices will start a bullish run. That is an EXCEPTION and not the norm. Check with data as far back as 5 years ago. A lot of people are using this years behaviour to form a trend. At the early part of the year, the Pension Funds distorted the market. Hence you ahve some crazy movements. Normalcy is gradually returning now. So, be careful about buying stocks with the hope that once the TS is lifted, you will realise short term gains. Baseed on history, most stocks tend to fall after lifting of TS except those that the PO's were seriously undervalued (mainly privatised companies).

Yet to look at AIICO prospectus but that is a stock worth considering.

Not that bullish on Glasgow so not looking at it at least for now. May and Baker is my pick in that sector.

Why are he having oversubcription, will talk on that later

Will talk about margin trading and financial education for children in another post

MyPeace:
thats a good joke.! , i guess she has bn sleeping on okonkwo mother's bed rather.

You still dey read jokes? it will take God's mercy for what you did with Trans Express. From 0.67 it is now close to 2.00. That's enough to go on Holiday in Hawaii. Kai!!!!!!

God will forgive you sha.

floreb:
[table]wanaj0

tell me what do i do. i thought the one zenith is selling is PO, so how do i buy the IPO? can you give your yahoo mesg id for us to chat?


ade_aoa.[/table]

i hope your ID is @yahoo because i just added you. hope you are online

yahoo.com. I am online now but yet to receive your request.

let me have your own also to amke things fast.

drdaniel:
@ oga wanajo

"DSR and First Bank should be money spinners in 2008. They are positioned for great things."

I consider your opinion well well. I share some common convictions wit u( also a pastor)

What are your reasons for selecting these stocks and what time frame and price level do u project they will achieve. I know DSR is trading at a low PE and expansion is likely. But what of this quarterly dividend thing that stunts their performance.

For FBN;don't u think the dilution from over subcription will affect this yr perf.

What s your take on Wapco.

Actually Ive got a facility I want to invest for a 8-12mths
So I m looking for the best one or at most two.

Will apreciate other contributors.

Welldone to everryone who has made this forum alive.
Wishing us a bullish 2008.

On DSR, it is undervalued, relatively low PE with expansion/growth expected in 2008. That should help the bottomline. Yes the quarterly dividend is an issue but going forward, the market will definitely recognise its value. Also in a bearish market, don't expect it to take a hit.

on First Bank, yes I've factored in the dilution. By the time Q1 2008 result is out, FBN will skyrocket. They will definitely exceed the forecast in the prospectus. FBN has all and more that Zenith and co has. Look at there branch expansion strategy, look at the money from Western union, look at teh deployment of the N250bn raised. Come 2008, expect a mind blowing performance from First Bank. Now if they recover part or all of the N10bn from the IIL saga.

WAPCo, not too bullish about them. Good stock, good company but not well favoured. Loss of the MD to Obajana is also not a good sign.

floreb:
wanaj0

tell me what do i do. i thought the one zenith is selling is PO, so how do i buy the IPO? can you give your yahoo mesg id for us to chat?

ade_aoa.

walcolm:
@madeonline,
are you saying afribank registrar are the registrar company to Transcorp?

Yes they are. They use to be in Ikoyi (keffi Street) but now at Gbagada.

ayusman16:
You ar a millionaire if u can afford to dash someone a million buck without baiting an eyelid

Especially if you can misplaced a million without thinking of committing suicide

floreb:
Please Dear Nairalander am new on this shares stuff, i have some money up to 100k and i want to use part of it for this bank shares. At first when i heard of Zenith coming out, i intended buying up to like 40k and maybe bank PHB 20K.

But it seems that the Zenith PO IS very expensive or is it not, because am considering selling maybe after one year and am imagining how much that will be as N36.90 now

So Dear nairalander and businessmen advice and is Bank PHB good one to buy there too

(wanaj0)
If it is the PO, I will say none. Your money may be refunded. Just go and buy on the floor.
wanaj0, please i need your advice can we talk? or chat?

Yes we can!!!! Holla at me.

tiwantiwa:
not even with ohiwere being the chairman now , gbese

Well, he is not a magician. NNB is the best bank out of the lot and that says a lot about the bank. I mean they are close to hopeless. With all due respect, that is too risky an investment to go into. No attrcation apart from the madness on NSE which is making people to BUY just anything. Won't be surprised if Onwuka Interbiz is being traded now!!!!

ckenneths:
Are we sure Dangote flour is not stealing their market shares already (Flour mills) what was their turnover like to compare last half year?

Don't think so. Turnover went up but PAT went down. So it is more of efficiency/margin issue.

ckenneths:
That NAFDAC policy against bottled drinks, how can it affect bottling companies like NBC and NBL,7up Guinness etc and their operations, can this affect their operations negatively. What of its effects on profitability?

It will affect them but will affect Beta Glass more.

For NBC and the likes, the implication is additional investments in PET bottles and plant and equipment. They will also have to write off the cost of the bottles since they will now be obsolete. So it will be an extra ordinary item that will affect their profit and balance sheet.

For Beta Glass, it will be a loss of business for them.

samstone4:
@youngdoc

Are you a medical student or a doctor?
How is it possible to be a medical student of Surgery in the USA?

@Wanajo

Betaglass used to be called Delta Glass.
Betaglass, NBC and A.G.Leventis are all controlled by the Leventis family.
I believe they are Greek-Nigerians.

Samstone4

Beta Glass is a merger of many glass companies of which Delta Glass is one of them. There are other glass companies (like the one in Agbara) that makes up Delta Glass.

Yes the Leventis family controls them. They have a lot of investments in Nigeria. Not sure about them being Greek - Nigerians. I know that John Mastroudes was to be given a Nigerian citizenship but not sure if he got it.

Flour Mills 6 months result is not impressive. Quite strange. Guess the gas supply disruption and interest on loans for the various expansion is hitting them hard. turnover went up but PAT was down.

ckenneths:
I also heard that they(NBC) owns CPL, crown products limited at Ijebu Ode.

Never heard of that.

Avon crown also produces crown corks.

ckenneths:
@wanajo, I have enjoyed some quick profits from unity bankn so you can understand my belief, got in at 5.50, got bonus, sold at 8.08 three months later.

As for the chain in NBC, NBC owns a substancial stake in Beta glass, AG Leventis of course owns a majority of NBC shares and so the all attend the same meetings.

You are close to it. Add Frigolass and you will get a better picture of the Greek investment in Nigeria.

ckenneths:
@wanajo, I have enjoyed some quick profits from unity bankn so you can understand my belief, got in at 5.50, got bonus, sold at 8.08 three months later.

As for the chain in NBC, NBC owns a substancial stake in Beta glass, AG Leventis of course owns a majority of NBC shares and so the all attend the same meetings.

I know that you've made money from Unity bank and as usual with most investors emotion takes the better of us and we continue to do the 'wrong' things until it is too late.

Imagine driving against the traffic. Of course you may get away with it many times but the day that you will be UNLUCKY, it will be terrible.

Really, there is nothing that Unity Bank has that makes it attractive. What is the unique selling point? Mangement? Size? Reah or what? Nothing!!!!!

Unity and Spring bank are two banks walking on tight ropes. Can't see a future for them.

CBN to release $1.8bn and over N300bn to the states. Part of that money will get to the capital market. So expect hugely over subscribed PO's and a bullish trend on the NSE. So take position.

AP shares moving up because Otedola was increasing his stake. I doubt how this happen without SEC intervention. 5% holding in a company requires disclosure. He bought in his individual capacity not as Zenon.

Ckenneth, you must be a strong believer to be having hope in Unity bank. They've got nothing to prove. A badly managed bank. No strength. No niche market. Nothing really to offer. Me I am an unbelieving believer so thread with care.

On Beta Glass, solid bank just recovering after some two or three years difficulty. major challenge is NAFDAC's plan to stop the use of glass bottles by cocacola and co. Beta Glass, AG Leventis and NBC do gave something in common. They all tend to do well together. There is seems to be a link in their shareholding.

AIICO prospectus, well will have to wait for it.

Acorn PP is out for those interested. Yet to see it though.

MTN private placement, still waiting for the details.

DSR and First Bank should be money spinners in 2008. They are positioned for great things.

tonmax:
If you buy your IPO through your broker, will he still be entitled to his brokers commission??

He will be entitled to receiving agents commission (1%) but you are not the one paying for it.

floreb:
Please Dear Nairalander am new on this shares stuff, i have some money up to 100k and i want to use part of it for this bank shares. At first when i heard of Zenith coming out, i intended buying up to like 40k and maybe bank PHB 20K.

But it seems that the Zenith PO IS very expensive or is it not, because am considering selling maybe after one year and am imagining how much that will be as N36.90 now

So Dear nairalander and businessmen advice and is Bank PHB good one to buy there too

If it is the PO, I will say none. Your money may be refunded. Just go and buy on the floor.