₦airaland Forum

alliednetw:
Sorry People,My Skye Bank contact claims that the entry price for CHAMS PP is now 4naira.But there is an assurance for full allotment.

Such is life. Wished I've reserved 50m units. When listed @ 5.00, would have just started my holiday for the rest of the year!!!!

That na real JUICY offer

alliednetw:
@iconbull
send me an email on chams pp and i will give u details of how to get it

Sent you an e-mail. need 400,000 units. My contacts are already fully booked!!

upward:
@All,

Find below Access Bank results,

Looks impressive.

ACCESS BANK PLC UNAUDITED THIRD QUARTER RESULT FOR THE PERIOD ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2007
2007 2006 CHANGE % CHANGE
N'b N'b N'b %
GROSS EARNINGS 41.890 17.127 24.763 144.58
PBT 13.153 4.303 8.850 205.67
TAXATION -4.200 -1.075 -3.125 -290.70
PAT 8.994 3.227 5.767 178.71
SHORT TERM MEDIUM/LONG TERM
CURRENT PRICE 22.99 22.99
PROJECTED PRICE 24.06 30.07
CAP. APPRECIATION (FORECAST) 1.07 7.08
CAP. APPRECIATION (FORECAST) % 4.65 30.80

Good result. PAT of N12bn to N14bn expected

http://www.thisdayonline.com/nview.php?id=100588


Acquisition: Fresh Hurdles for Foreign Banks

Maybe this will reduce the oversubscription of PO's

hbrednic:
the best insurance on your investment for now, is to stay out of insurance coys,
untill the air is quite clear.

anybody seen todays result?

Naijadr:
phew I almost bought UNIC end of Dec, but really this isnt good at least for now. The insurance sector is like a cascade, if UNIC falls, the rest of them all fall down together, lets see how low the prices will go,

You people are funny!!!!! Well, I have UNIC. Bought the IPO at 1.10 so no shaking.

However, people need to understand how the insurance business works!!!! A single claim can wipe off the whole profit.

That said, for UNIC in particular, I assume that the Non LIFE part is not included. Having a drop in turnover is a bit strange. UNIC still appears to be more transparent than the other insurance companies.

BTW, hope people are aware that NGC is seriously exposed to UNIC!!!!

invisible!:
Insurance has began to frighten me, first it was the news of some share added to cornerstone to make it bloated out of value, then this from UNIC?

I think I better start shedding weight there.

Who don get todays result abeg.

Expect more abracadabra from the insurance companies. NEM will be the most surprising!!!!!!!! I think WAPIC to me is teh best out there for now. All the others ahve many things to hide!!

kpineo:
@Wanajo
sorry to tackle you like this, but can you defend UNIC. you always had you doubts about the insurance industry though!

Why should I defend UNIC. I've told you people that there are many things that are not in the public domain as far as insurance stocks are concerned.

On UNIC, while not privy to the details, it may actually be an EXCELLENT result. I know that UNIC was to excise their General Insurance. If that has happened it means that the 2007 result is just for the LIfe business as compared to 2006 which was for both LIFE and NON LIFE. Need confirmation on this though. But with turnover and PAT below 2006 level, that will be my guess.

Me, I know that the insurance companies are not well regulated so a lot of abracadabra is taking place!!!

Temmie10:
easi
happy new year,
that NGC result is exactly as you put it, slightly below expectations.
Btw why was nfi delisted?

Not sure why you considered it below expectation. 25% growth in PAT is not.

I know that most people did there calaculation based on equal quarterly profits. Abeg no be like that.

Like I said 28.00 is a fair price for NGC anything else na jara.

NFI is no longer exiting. Acquired by AIICO.

tufe:
@ wanajo,
abeg answer my question na

Sorry dey source for your answer

Not sure which CSCS account you talked about. Is it online account or getting a CSCS number/account where your stock will reside.

The first one can take two weeks while teh second one should be about three days

easimoni:
This did not show up on my FSDH report. Thot you all might want to know. I guess Wanaj0 has been warning us regarding Ins coys that merged or sold to private equity concerns. I'm sure more of this will follow in that sector. Cornerstone shares now up to 9.56B

Can't understand how the insurance sector is in such a mess as far as corporate gorvernace issue is concern. No wonder, the consolidation programme is filled with errors.

How do you conclude a merger arrangement without scheme of merger document sent to the shareholders!!!!! Everything is shrouded in secrecy.

Before, I know that UNIC was planning to spin off their non life business. Not sure of the situation now.

NEM was totally silent about their merger with Vigilante. No one knew the terms and conditions of the deal. I'm sure when they come out for the PO's this will still not be mentioned. For me I will let them pass before dem give man pickin high blood pressure!!!

upward:
Oga wanajo,
Please, are you ignoring my question about LASACO and Oceanic?? Abeg, can yu respond, or can I PM you on messenger??

Sorry thougt your question was already answered.

Oceanic is dropping because of the law of demand and supply. The newly listed shares are being sold by those that bought the PO @ 16. They want to amke profit and move to something else. It should bottom out at around 25.00 and likely flunctuate at the 28.00 - 26.00 band pending the Q2 result. Good stock going forward but currently not much upside.

As per Lassaco, don't have enough data to analyse. Most of the insurance companies don't have the CORRECT outstanding shares in the public domain so can't say much. As per market sentiments, the insurance sector are well favoured.

Safive:
Wanajo, FatherOf2, Wendy and all

Thanks for your wonderful contributions. Please respond to my post of 12 january now. I would like to buy Presco, Eterna oil, Nig Germ Chemicals and C & I leasing this week for medium terms. I hope my choice is ok.

Maybe C & I leasing. Growth rate in the petroleum marketing sector and the agricultural sector is not much so will ignore those sectors. Difficult to reccomend Nigerian German now bearing in mind the price at which I bought. Why not consider First Bank and Diamond?

tufe:
@all
please i need some info, i just saw on vanguard that Dangote flour mills would be returing some monies due to over subscription, and unfortunately, i fall under the category of people that only 12% was alloted. the thing now is that i don't know how these returned monies get back to the investors.
anyone that might have had an experience, abeg ooo i need your knowledge on how these things go about.

If you submitted the application through a broker, your broker can pick up your returned cheque for you.

Alternatively you can go to the registrar to be checking when the cheque will be ready and pick it up from there. If not, the cheque will be posted to your address or a letter asking you to come and pick the cheque from the registrar will be sent to you.

samstone4:
@ CrazyT

Thanks for the autopsy report on Acorn.
Some of the directors on the board are very reputable. I doubt very much they will knowingly overstate their projections.
If I am solvent enough by close I will risk a small investment in the PO. Meanwhile will fish for more info.


Samstone4

No problem. Just check the figures and tell me how realistic the projection is in a sector with dwindling margins, high competition etc. Check the timeline also for the profit realisation. It's either they are talking bullsmanure or they just don't know anything at all. The figures are crazy!!!

cheexy:
Please does anyone have the zenith rights issue form? The only one I have is the Public Offer Form.

Thanks

Go and pick it up at Zenith Regisrars. You will likely spend 15 to 30mins there

dokun23:
@wanajo,fof2
been reading your posts .u guys are doing great.please keep it up
i bought wapic at 8naira. and its curently 11.do u think its a good idea to sell or wait for the next result

WAPIC still holds a lot of value.

damoche07:
.

Fieldmarhsal,its not your call about this name.You deserve it and i hope u will accept it. However,you are a dovish fieldmarshal,a very necessary ingredient in the boardroom,cabinet or Joint Chiefs o Staff. .its a boring saturday here.

Ok. Will you now answer my other question

grabdaloot:
@Wanaj0,
I share a different veiw on some of your points which you have listed above. First of all, UTC is no longer a conglomerate. They have sold off all arms of the conglomerate and concentrated solely on the Food sector hence their reclassification by the NSE. Secondly AGLEVENTIS is doing very well. Thier 9 months PAT is greater than their full year PAT of 06 (N411m vs N394m) with no exceptional items. Though their turnover was 9% less but that is because they have mordenized their operations and dropped most of the non profiatable capital intensive arms. Like the heavy machinery unit. Check the increase in their profit margin this year and you begin to see my point. Their forward PE depending on how you evaluate their full year ranges from 15 -18. Now the addition of cummings to the equation makes it a very good prospect and the cummings thing is not a rumour but something that has been signed and sealed. They have been consistent in dividend payments over the last 7 years. If you have banks at N50/share paying N1 dividend and you can get an AGLEVENT at N5 to pay you 20k which would you go for in terms of ROI. As you are not a trader I'd really love to know your answer. Of course I am not shouting to all to go and buy AGLEVENT but truth be told it has sound fundamentals. One point I agree with though is the relatively thin volumes being sold. I've been trying for some time to amass the stock but can't ever seem to get more than 200k in one trade day

Margins in the sector that UTC is concentrating on is THIN. It is basically a VOLUME business.

on Ag Leventis, I am not against them. Normally its PE is always lower than other companies in that sector. I know that they are in to power via Cummins but that is a very competitive sector. Their Hotel is not doing that well. The property arm is also not fantastic. Their motor divison is being re organised. So while it is not a SELL, It is not a MUST BUY at elast by my calaculation.

I may also be sentimental. Bought my AG Leventis @ about 0.65k in 2006 or so so buying now @ above 5.00 is a no no for me. I am speaking for myself. One's mans meet is another mans poison.

Labo:
Hi wanajo,

Can I have your opinion on this issue. I have got a couple of union bank stock. it advice able to sel them to purchase First bank stock.

Ta
Labo

I am not impressed with the growth rate of Union bank. but they've done me well even better than First bank. But going forward, First Bank seems to hold more value. The old men managing Union bank seems to be bereft of ideas.

iconbull:
@wanajo
oga mi, i remain loyal o! but i think things may be quite different for AGleventis heard Cummins a foreign company has made substantial acquisition in it. expect the mkt to react to this ,u also know that sentiments drive a lot of stocks on the xchange not necesarily fundamental or technical analysis.few examples will do.the recent entry of a foreign investor into afroil moved its price from N7 TO N10. we've not seen any result from Nigeria wire nd cable yet it is moving.these are few thins sentiments can do. but i will always advise u back up every rumor with fundamental considerations to be on a safer side.

Yes, you can always BUY on rumour and you profit especially in a BULL market. In a BEARISH market, you get your fingers burnt especially with illiquid funds.

Talking of Afroil, if you know anything about the oil marketing business you will know that it is a LOW margin high volume business. However, extraneous factors can always drive the price up. AP is at an unreasobale price now because of the bidding war. I will not join the bidding war.

Not only Nigerian Wire and cable, check FAMAD, check Nigercem etc.

Now since I am not a trader, I will prefer companies that I can BUY and go to sleep. taht fits into my personality but will not grudge those that do the opposite

iconbull:
fieldmashal,i don join u for next level o!. i hear say allotment for goldlink has been done

Abeg , make una drop all this titles wey man no fit use buy garri for maket.

Thanks for the info on Goldlink. Any insight on Nigerdock

Anyone with info on Goldlink PP and Nigerdock planned offer for sale?

Fatherof2 and Wendy,

UACN has a low PE because of the Extra ordinary income that boosted their profits. They are selling some of their assets (Tractor and Equipment). For me that is not sustainable so it is a SELL. Market sentiments may however move it up to 60.00

UNILEVER, will still be wary of it. Margins in the sector are thin and the growth potential is limited.

If you need a conglomerate, go Chellarams. Lowest PE in the sector. Now into manufacturing of bicycles, Okada and Tricycles. That definitely is a high margin and growth sector of the economy. With stable exchange rate (falling dollar) importers will make a KILL. Downside is liquidity. They were planning a PO before but they've gone silent on that now. Liquidity na the issue here!

JOHN HOLT, little info. Being declaring losses for a while so will let that pass.

AG Leventis and UTC, not really facsinated with those two. They need serious re engineering. Can't see what will propell them. They are in a low margin sector apart from the power (generators) that they are in to. They are however facing stiff competition from the Chinese companies also.

TRANSCORP? Maybe if you are a naturally OPTIMISTIC person.

Which one remain?

grabdaloot:
@Easimoni,
Where did you get the number of outstanding shares for Ikeja hotel. If it is a weblink, just point me in that direction, As per your comment on CHAMS PP min subsciption. The person i spoke to at UBAGM actually told me the minimum in now 2m units. Made me pocket my cheque and walk away

Go to SKYE Bank.

windywendy:
Na wa oh! This thread is something else. Less than 24hrs when I log on and more than 7 more pages!

Oga Wanaj0, which analysis you dey wait? No be you talk say "no analysis paralysis"? Me don commot for that side long time ago. It's a good offer, and yes I've turned in my application. Those UBA guys try for me well well. They were even willing to wait beyond the Monday deadline they gave me, and agreed to accept my application online while awaiting the cheque from my broker. Anyway, that one's done.

As per AG leventis, I'ld say "yes" it's good at the current price. I tried re-entry today after selling a few days back but no show. Thought twas going to fall another 5% today.

Na wa for Transcorp oh! I remember when they were doing their PO sometime ago and I told some folks who were planning to invest to beware. One guy nearly bit my head off, even calling me unpatriotic, bla bla bla. Sentimental investing can be terrible! Well after a while I just had to shut up, abi na my money? wetin come concern fish with raincoat na?   Someone told me recently that he's still averaging down Amazing!. Don't know why anyone would tie money down there when there are myriads of other opportunities screaming to be picked up. But then again, the risk may end up paying BIG TIME.

@all: can anyone with the MTN prospectus post it? Can't seem to find it anywhere online. Thanks.

Good weekend everyone!

The analysis can start now.

Turned in the first batch of the CHAMS offer via UBA Stockbrokers who asked UBA global market to allocate and give a written undertaking for 20m units. The way UBA is handling the thing, there might be over subscription. Not sure thay had control over the units being submitted. Blocked 2m units for me and my friends but we exceeded and gave them a post dated cheque for 15th of January.

Submitted the second batch at SKYE bank today. Nice chap I met. Shared the same name with his Pastor. Even put me through to the Pastor on phone to meet his name sake. Gave them a post dated cheque also for Monday the 14th. He said that there will be no oversubscription. That once the limit is reached, he will stop collection. That to me makes sense and make me comfortable since na borrowed funds I dey use. I assumed that each underwritter will allocate to its client based on the amount they offered to underwrite. If everything is left to UBA Global markets to handle, there may be weeping and gnashing of teeth!!!!

As per Transorp, some people entered at 1.00 so until it reaches 0.50 no shaking for them. That's the advantage of early movers.

On MTN, doubt whether there is really any prospectus sent out. IBTC just invited the houses who will now form an SPV for those that are interested through them. They will be the one to develop an offer document factoring their own management fee into it. I know that Afrinvest is currently preparing that now.

RoughCut:
You are right about the 70% bit for a public company i said in my post you only need 2 shareholders to form a limited company.For listing on the NSE only 25% of the stock need to be floated! Dangote floated 25% of his personal holding in DFM and that is what all of us were scrambling for and at least you know the result.

The man still owns 75% of the company  and listing on NSE is imminent its all in the prospectus!

A limited company need only 2 shareholders but a PUBLIC limited company (PLC) must have more than 2. For a listed company, they are PLC's so must have more than 2 shareholders.

pumping777:
Is the discussion to reduce the entry  point for you in particular or general consideration?

I am interested but will not want to commit more than $50K  

It will be for general consideration. How many people will like to tie down N12m for 3 years?

RoughCut:
If there are no ups and downs and gyrations left right and center how am i supposed to make profit?
I go carry the $100K go buy a couple of flats for Lekki abi?

That's the issue of personality. Those that do those lind of things are in it for the LONG term. You need to know how much those that sold V-Mobile shares to Akwa Ibom and Delta State governments made. Just because of teh first mover advantage, most people prefer PP. Transcorp PP started @ 1.00 then moved to 6.00 before doing IPO @ 15.00 ( they bought half of what those who entered via PP because of the stock split). So even at 3.00, those that entered @ 1.00 are making a killing. Imagine if they've exited @ 7.00!!!!!

Imagien a stock split followed by 4 for 1 by CHAMS, that beats any gyration/trading you may think about.

That said, personality comes to play. Same way some people can never BUY stocks because they want a business that is 'tangible'. SOmething they can hold not the 'gambling' that takes place on the stock market. We are just comfortable with different things.

RoughCut:
$100k will probably not be too injurious but for me to tie that down for three years nah? I want to see how the share price of the company i'm invested in is doing on the NSE watch the gyrations and be able to offload and unload anytime i want that is the buzz i get from investing!

That's what I was saying yesterday about personality and investment strategy. Some people will not be satisfied without the ups and downs that they see in the market. In which case, even if a stock offers 1000% returns, they will not be interested. That's why strategy must fit the personality.

easimoni:
Has anyone seen the numbers for the MTN offer? I'd love to see the projections. IBTC aked a friend of mine for N2.5M to join a SPV for the MTN PP. Dunno why other coys are asking for so much. Lead contacted me yesterdday and I indicated interest. Will see how much they ask for. Not leaning towards it though!

Momentum traders; Ikeja hotels dropped 10% this week and has a 9-day RSI of 19 and forward PE of 12. And yes, I own a bunch of shares.

Yet to see it but I think the placement is over. IBTC invited the issuing houses/brokers. Minimum was like $5m. They cough out the cash and are now trying to set up SPV's to recover/distribute the investment. But for it to be manageable, they do not want it to be an all comers affair.

Afrinvest is still finalising the terms of the SPV. While MTN has a good name and are in a favourable sector, until I see the numbers (historical andforecast), na sidon look I dey.

RoughCut:
For any company to be listed on the NSE 25% of the stock must be held by private or public individuals. DSR and DFM are owned by one and only one individual and that is the man himself through Dangote Industries Ltd(DIL) and for the companies to be listed the shares must be floated to private individuals or  public individuals through PP or IPO or PO.

You need at least at least two shareholders for a company to become limited innit? and if between those two individuals they control at least 25% equity it can be floated although this is an extreme scenario but just to illustrate my point!

To be a PUBLIC company you need I think 50 or 70 shareholders with no one having anything more than 70%. That I think is the requirement for listing. The listing requirement use to be on teh SEC site.

Once CHAMS fulfill the number of shareholder bit, they are qualified for listing. Doing a PO after is because they wanted to though most companies get listed so as to raise funds hence the IPO alsmot after.

Dangote did an offer for sale to fulfill the 70% and the number of shareholders rule. For CHAMS, they've already fulfilled the 70% rule. It is only the number of shareholders that they need to sort out.

RoughCut:
That is all my portfolio gone then
And then wait for 3 years before being listed doesnt make an iota of sense

That's the problem with PP. You are locked in. But be rest assured for good companies the result na helele. Look at Chams; N6m was the entry level in 2005 or so for 1m units. With a stock split and 4 for 1, you now have 8m units. If listed @ 5.00 as being speculated and you exit at that point that is N40m in 3 years. That's almost 600% returns. Assumming the price got to N6.00 before exiting, thats N48m (700%). So it may be worth it.

An SPV can help you to participate while reducing your exposure.

pumping777:
BGL is accepting minimum of $200K for it's investment vehicle for MTN PP. Make I make way for the big boyz and girls.

Afrinvest was $100k but may reduce further based on my discussion with them yesterday (went to their office for the first time).

Part of the money meant for this already gone for CHAMS. Will see the possibility of raising circa N10m for this. Action will depend on how juicy the offer is. forward PE might even be less than 1 in 3 years time.

For those who may like to participate but do not have that money, team up together as friends, form a company and contribute based on your shareholding. Basically you create a Special Purpose Vehichle (SPV) for the investment. People may start to put heads together now on who and who they will partner for this. Of course it must be people of like minds who trust each other.

RoughCut:
It means 25% of  CHAMS must be held publicly! So hopefully after the PP they will float more than 25% for the IPO so as not to create illiquidity and 'money return' syndrome. Dangote is a prime example

That is still not clear. To create liquidity, there is minimum number of shareholders that you can have prior to listing. That's the reason for the PP. Once you fulfill that you are game for listing. Also, no man can have more than 70% of the company.

With the PP they don't need to do an IPO except they wanted to. Airservices is listed and there is no PO. Dangote is doing IPO (offer for sale) to increase the shareholder base thereby diluting his holdings. DSR is listed and no PO.

RoughCut:
I think PP should not normally not be over-subscribed which is why they would not take any more applications once they have hit their quota .The issuing houses have already guaranted to buy the shares in the unlikely event that no one buys but of course we know that is not possible so it is really not in their interest to allow over-subscription and star returning money.

CHAMS only need to float 25% of their share capital to qualify for listing on the NSE after which they will follow up with IPO and then they can absorb some over-subscription

In NIGERIA, anything can happen. Fidson PP I learnt was oversubscribed and money will be returned!!!!

Not sure the meaning of the bolded portion.

Learnt that the MTN placement is on. Hopefully, one of the brokers will send the offer document. Was however told that listing on NSE will not happen until about 3years. Moreover, there may be no dividend payment. But at listing, expect huge profit. So that one na real LONG term by the definition here.

invisible!:
@ Easimoni, you mean 2.5 milla for the minimum? Them no get poor person for their village? Abeg I don tire to pursue them sef.

I believe the sweetness of most investment programs is when many people can participate, tends to strengthen capitalism, and foster a level playing field. As it is only the very rich can afford to tie that type of amount for long. Poor man don suffer!

Abeg, the CHAMS people don make money.

They did a PP in 2005 or so. Minimum was 1m units at N6.00 or so. Now they have done a stock split and followed it up with a 4 for 1 bonus. The N6m is now N20m.

Was told that they will be listed at N5.00 soon. There will be no oversubscription according to SKYEBANK. Once the level allotted to them is reached, they will stop collecting forms.

easimoni:
Re: Chams PP.

News hot off the press is that UBA GM has raised the min # of units to 1M. Now you need N2.5M instead of 100k to enjoy. Tis in response to the overwhelming demand.

Anyone getting similar feelers?

Last I heard was that UBA gave 5bn cheque to CHAMS to cover the offers.

Well I submitted some forms to UBA with less than 1m units.

Submitted to SKYE BANK today forms with less than 100,000 units.

On oversubcription, the thing tire man pickin.

Before the average number of shareholders in companies was about 30,000. Soon it moved to 50,000. Even teh insurance companies that did offers in 2006, most were seriously undersubscribed including this AIICO. I mean UNIC at 1.10 was undersubscribed in 2006.

Few offers get up to 50,000 applications. However with thread like this, you cant tell again. First Bank got almost 1million applications for their PO!!! Now that is crazy!!!!!! A lot also has to do with publicity and the issuing houses. AIICo offer is not well publicised so maybe that may help those that want to corner. However, anything over 100,000 units will definitely lead to refund money!