₦airaland Forum

N40m loan for 6months is a recipe for disaster!!!!!! 6months is too short a time. So the guy better watch it. Remember, capital market is for long term investment even though there are opportunities for short term gains.

Imagine a scenario that in six months, he is in the red and so his stocks were sold at a loss only to see the same stocks move up in the 7th or 8th month. Hope the persons BP can handle that.

Patogbish:
Kudos to all the gurus in the house! thanks for the wealth of info, but nobody is saying anything about BOC-Gas, yet the price is hitting the roof . like to know watin dey happen for this stock. I salute una.

My sell order go reach my broker for that one by Monday. I enjoyed the ride from 2.50. Now is the time to tell them THANK YOU.

aktopgun:
i know about uba but i am talking about intercontinental from 18th dec and we never even hear from them and the broker dey tell me say "na naija we dey". its this kind of attitude that i don't appreciate about my fellow nigerians sometimes.

can he call the broker to confirm the sending of the dividend?

Interontinental? If there registrar is the one handling there account you will wait tire!!!!

Well, you only have payment date announcement. Postage is another issue. Na only GTB and FBN registrars I trust.

If you get to Zenith registrars, you will shake your head!!

aktopgun:
@ all

is it possible to contact registrars if u are yet to get your dividend cheques?

i am referring to intercontinental and uba dividends. my broker is giving me a load of bull

Yes you can go to the registrar to find out about your dividend. Not sure that UBA has sent the last dividend though.

no_shaking:
My brotha, those banks you mentioned were sure bets then even they didn't provide us with any projections/financials _{just mentioning their names na serious oversubsciption from day one}. Why underwrite something that is a sure bet, huh? Besides, underwriting wasn't really compulsory then. The koko is those shady companies!!!!! See what happened to the undersubscription fever of the insurance coys last year! Now, with the compulsory 80% underwriting law, it's definitely going to be a different story with this next round of POs from Insurance coys.  

you are still blaming the wrong person.

How many unit was International Breweries offering? How many was alloted preferentially to the German investor and other preferred shareholders? The amount remaining is damn too small.

Insurance offers were undersubscribed then because people did not trust them. Things has changed. Platinum bank PP was on for more than a year because no one trusted them. Now, things has changed.

First bank had one million applications. Where they from the issuing houses. Some few years ago, total number of shareholders of First bank were far less than 100,000. With one million applicants what do you expect.

Check Access bank allottment. One investor (Stanbic Nominees) applied for over 50% of the shares on offer. Stanbic is not the underwiritting firm. If one person applies ofr half of the total offer, what will be left for the remainder of the populace.

So don't blame the underwritting firms. Blame the foreign investors, the Nigerians in diaspora (me no go mention name), and Soludo who has made the banks to start to lend money anyhow now!!!

no_shaking:
What do you think, my brotha? Just imagine the diff scenarios/permutations! Your statement implicitly says it all! Have you ever wondered why it takes a long time to get your certificates and also to get it verified afterwards, huh? Yet, you see the prices rally to the roof in front of you and you are so helpless ,   Classic examples - Dunlop; DangSugar; Int'l Continental Bank etc

Despatch and verification of certificates rest with the registrars and not the issuing houses.

Dunlop, Dangote Sugar, Intercontinental offers were not underwritting by anyone so that immediately disprove your assertion.

Basically for IPO's a 'fiddling' of the price is done by the major shareholders. Imagine if IGI is listed today, how many people have IGI shares to sell. Those that did the PP do not even have the share certificate yet. So who are those 'trading'? existing shareholders. In reality, na dummy trade. They are just recycling from one account to another like husband selling to the wife. That's why you see minimal trades. irrespective of how good your broker is, he will not be able to BUY at that instance until the major shareholders have moved the price high enough. That's why when you look at price movements, also look at volume traded and number of deals. It indicates whether the law of demand and supply is at work or whether some people are just exploiting the weakness in the NSE to their advantage

no_shaking:
What do you think, my brotha? Just imagine the diff scenarios/permutations! Your statement implicitly says it all! Have you ever wondered why it takes a long time to get your certificates and also to get it verified afterwards, huh? Yet, you see the prices rally to the roof in front of you and you are so helpless ,   Classic examples - Dunlop; DangSugar; Int'l Continental Bank etc

Despatch and verification of certificates rest with the registrars and not the issuing houses.

Dunlop, Dangote Sugar, Intercontinental offers were not underwritting by anyone so that immediately disprove your assertion.

Basically for IPO's a 'fiddling' of the price is done by the major shareholders. Imagine if IGI is listed today, how many people have IGI shares to sell. Those that did the PP do not even have the share certificate yet. So who are those 'trading'? existing shareholders. In reality, na dummy trade. They are just recycling from one account to another like husband selling to the wife. That's why you see minimal trades. irrespective of how good your broker is, he will not be able to BUY at that instance until the major shareholders have moved the price high enough. That's why when you look at price movements, also look at volume traded and number of deals. It indicates whether the law of demand and supply is at work or whether some people are just exploiting the weakness in the NSE to their advantage

no_shaking:
Haba, on paper, yes! But na Nigeria! Literally, underwriting is like an insurance against undersubscription! But in Nigeria, it’s quite the assurance for oversubscription now. Lately, have you ever seen any undersubscribed  PO/IPO  _{no matter how woeful the company’s financials are} since SEC introduced the 80% underwriting law, huh? . Even if Andy Best Electronic, University of Suya  or Yakoyo Restaurant come to the market today, they would be hugely oversubscribed!  

Trust the Nigeria big boys, they would always find a way round all this! No issuing house wants to take unnecessary risk this day _{risk/return analysis perspective} thus the need for all these aggressive marketing ploy, cowboy tactics, hype game etc we see these days before the offer is made public. And when TS is lifted, the prices go to the roof _{reason – engineered scarcity} and they would subsequently clean out _{fast fast} before the ordinary public receive their share certificate and have the chance to reap from this engineered price appreciation.

BTW, do know the price of Int’l Breweries now on the floor, huh? You know what that means? Check out what happened to Dunlop _{post TS & post-allotment} last year? Anyway, I rest my case!  

Zenith did an IPO in 2004 and it was massively over subscribed without the offer being underwritten. Only 800m units was offered then. With all the advert etc, it witnessed serious oversubscription and they returned moeny.

Oceanic and UBA's offer were over subscribed and both were not underwritten.

The reason for oversubcription is somewhere else not with the underwritting firms.

Tiwantiwa, very tight situation you are in. With deadlines/timelines, it becomes difficult to make rational decision.

Except you share this investment objective with your broker, you are not in a position to blame him.

For me, the strategy to use is to start by selling considered over valued stocks (even if it is at a loss) or those that you think have reached the peak irrespective of whether you are selling at a loss. That way, you are meeting your objectiveand still position for future growth.

A stock that you will be scared of buying at current price is a SELL candidate. A share that you will like to BUY at current price should not be SOLD now.

Go and do the assignment and let's know what you come up with.

Hope this helps.

no_shaking:
Allotment Result for Int'l Breweries out!

1. Offer was 362% oversubscribed, yes oversubscribed!

2. No portion of oversubcription would be taken up, so confidently said by the company. _Another

3. To add insult upon injury, return monies would attract 7% interest , I don tire o!

4. Basis of Alltoment: 1-1000 - 100%; 1001-5000 - 45%; 5001-10000 - 25.05%; 10001-50000 - 16.5%; 50001-100000 - 10% etc. All for this 87k per share,

Infact, no comment at all . Reason for all this bullshit: SEC's law of 80% underwriting agreement of all POs by Issuing Houses - meaning Issuing houses would surreptitiously warehouse all these units _{giving peanuts to the public} and subsequently offload the warehoused units on the secondary market when the price is right to make easy profit etc. Anyway, nuff said!

Underwriting is actually to prevent undersubcription of offers. Also, it helps in ensuring that offers are fairly priced. If not the underwriting firms will have to cough out the money.

Over subscription is due to many factors. Firstly is the increase awareness which implies that many people are now participating. Next is the issue of preferential allottment which effectively reduces the quantity available to the general public since a substantial portion is already presold. You also have some companies offering very small quantity of shares for sale. I think NAHCO in their PO issued only 90m shares!!! Also with margin facility, people are able to buy beyond their capacity. Lastly you have a number of foreign investors and Nigerians in diaspora bringing huge amount of money into the market.

windywendy:
@all, just took a quick look at the Tantalizers PP memo. Don't like what I see. Margins are too thin, historical results not too impressive, projections too optimistic (and not very impressive despite that). Might still make you some money though, esp. if they list later this year as they've mentioned. I won't recommend this PP though.

@Easimoni, I too wanted to buy Stdinsure but my broker warned me that they'll be going on TS soon. So beware.

A friend went home and was talking about the Tantalizer PP. His children objected to eat saying that he should buy Sweet Sensation, TFC or Chicken republic. You know why They claimed that the food from those eateries are way better than Tantalizer. That conluded the analysis of the PP!

Most insurance companies will be going on TS soon. Any one caught in may be in for a hard time

dollyp1cute:
Since when did you start using parachue or are you now a bomber

Just looking out for my bomber friends to ensure that they make a safe landing. Since I recommended Vitafoam and BOC it is nice for me to also put them at alert as per landing safely in the midst of the storms.

Me I sell when I need money or when I consider the stock over valued. Don't have the time and energy to be doing day to day monitoring. Also, I don't trust brokers to be efficient in their execution of trades. So, I don't bother myself.

aktopgun:
cappa stagnant
boc gained 64kobo today
crusader defying gravity
uba even more attractive now
ditto for oceanic

BOC's result is due this month so, time to get ready to pull the parachute.

OandO also is not joking again OOOO.

koksieboy:
@Wanajo

The issue is that I'm based outside Nigeria and the pre-filled form has not been delivered to my forwarding address yet, even after delivery I'm required to sign and return the original copy as scanned copies may not be accepted.

I called Vetiva and I was advised to download the form if possible and send the original signed copy by post to my stockbrokers in Nigeria. What I need os the format of the pre-filled information so that I can fill mine exactly the same way. Anyone that has received his/her prefilled right issue form should please help out.

No special way. In the first column (that's the one you need to fill), fill in following information

Account No.
Name
Units held
Right due
Amount (in Naira)

That solves the problem. The account no may be the difficult one but if you have any of the dividend warrant then no problem. The info is on it.

Guk:
Goodday Nairalanders,

Did anyone participate in Eterna Oil Rights Issue mid 2007?
If yes, has you Rights Issue being credited to your CSCS account?
If yes, when please?
My broker seems to be posting me on this pticular one and am not happy.

Regards

Right was not credited to CSCS acount. Certificates already sent and refund money also already despatched. In principle everything about the rights issue is completed. C'est finis.

koksieboy:
@Wanajo

Thanks for your prompt response. There are 2 blank columns under Section (A) for "details of shareholder's provisional allotment". I'm not clear how the info is be filled? For example, if I have a right issue of 100units, do I fill "100units" under column 1 and "N1250" under column 2?

Not sure which form you are looking at.

Ideally, Section A should be filled in by the registrar. No action is required from you. This is normally pre filled before sending out the right issue form. If not pre filled ( Idoubt

Section B is where you should fill in additional rights being requested for and the value associated with that.

Section C is if you are not accepting all your rights and or you want to trade in them. Hope that helps.

Costain seems to be on the RUN.

Chellarams still representing well.

As per BOC, well,

koksieboy:
FOF2, Wanajo, Oga Easy, Pumping, WindyWendy, Yodi and all,

On Skyebank Right Issue

1. Using the Acceptance/Renounce form on the downloadable Right Issue Prospectus, what exact inormation do you fill in section (A) "Trading in Rights"
2. How do you purchase Rights on the floor of the exchange?

Thanks, Temmie19 where are thou?

Through your broker you can purchase rights on the floor at a premium.

It is those that intend to trade their rights will need to fill Item C (Form of renunciation or partial acceptance). A transfer form will be completed showing that you are transferring the rights shares to the new buyer

rasputinn:
Wanajo & all,
I learnt that the Central Securities Clearing Systems Ltd (CSCS) has credited accounts of shareholders that qualified for bonus issues of First Bank of Nigeria Plc with the bonus declared for 2007 financial year end.

The operative word is _{shareholders that qualified} Are those that bought the P.O of last year qualified.

Answers please

They did so a couple of weeks ago.

No, those that bought the PO did not qualify. That was why they bought at a 'discount'

Cappa & dalberto has refused to stop.

Chellarams still delivering on promise.

OandO seems to have continued its resurgence

To BOC I say na you BIKO

windywendy:
But wait o, the brokers are collecting naira. Of course the shares are quoted in dollars but subscribers are required to pay in naira. Dividends are also in naira. I'm still not understanding the exchange risk you're talking about. Or are you referring to the exit SPV which may be quoted in USD? Please elaborate more.

Yes, I agree with you that going forward, margins will be reduced, which is why my assumed growth rate over the next 3years was 50%. With MTN's acquisition of VGC, they've made a headway into the corporate market which is obviously a higher margin sector. Can you just even begin to imagine the potential of that market especially with all of these companies doing branch expansion (banks esp.)?? Even tantalizers is talking of deploying technology   Who do you think is going to be carrying all that voice and data, if these companies decide to go with vsat which is amongst the cheapest technology useful for the purpose of interconnecting branches? The possibilities here are huge my brother! We're not even talking of broadband internet connectivity yet . . .

Don't get m wrong, MTN is a BUY. Just trying to highlight the things that is not making it as SWEET as I would have loved it to be.

Yes, they are collecting Naira from you but the trasanction is in US$. Let's assume at you paid N1.25m to gt one unit @ $10,000. Let's assume that by some magic, exchange rate now become N100 to $1.00 and you wnat to exit. Excluding capital appreciation, your N1.25m investment is now only N1.0m. That's the currency risk for the investor. With US$ falling against major currencies and Soludo bent on Naira appreciation, this is a posible scenario.

There are other new entrants that will give MTN a run for their money. Yes, VGC acquisition is good but that is not enough to drive away the competition.

Note also that they will start to service the $2bn loan so interest on loan will start to eat into the profit unlike in previous years when the loan portfolio was minimal.

As per competition, a lot depend on strategy and your Unique Selling point. Glo played catch up. Came up with per second billing and that was it. If the otehr competitors can break into the data market then it is MTN and co that will be playing catch up.

I also read of a plan by the new entrants to enter into a lease agreement with existing operators for use of their equipment just to reduce the start-up time. You can however see that with competition, there will be reduction in margins but still good enough for us to issue a cheque for the offer.

windywendy:
Hmmmm, interesting. So NCC is licensing newbies huh? Well, unless these newbies have seriously deep pockets, it would take them a while to catch up. From where I stand though, I don't see any of these newbies posing any real threat to the already existing oldies (MTN, GLO, VMOBILE, etc) over the next 3years. There are significant barriers to entry in this sector, the most of which is the sheer amount of capital commitment required to lay out all that infrastructure. This doesn't even consider the inherent switching costs involved in this business -- how many people would want to change their phone company, especially when there's no number portability?? _{Unless of course the phone company is just terribly terribly bad} . As always, let's wait and see . . .  

Dangote, Mubdala and Jim Ovia all got licenses. I know Jim is planning to come out in March or thereabout. Mubdala are also getting set. They all have DEEP pockets. The competition will not be on voice but data. That's where teh greatest growth is right now. So, it will not be business as usual. Same way GLO changed the landscape, the new entrants will surely raise the barrier.

windywendy:
oh ok I see what you're saying. If it's a case of currency risk as regards their cost base, I have no problem there. These guys have proven their ability to keep costs under control. Just check out their profit margins and how consistent they've been at maintaining it despite all of their growth. Amazing! Infact I hear they do all of their procurement centrally (across all MTN operations worldwide) in order to keep costs down. So no big issues there for me at all!

Naaaaaaaaaa.

Its is those using Naira to pay for the stocks in dollars. If the Naira apprecaites, by the time the conversion of the dollar denominated fund is made to Naira, you may not be making as much gain due to the change in exchange rate. This is from the point of view of investors. For MTN, it is in their benefit since they earn

As per numbers, during Christmas, Glo was allow to do a promo while MTN was not allowed to due to congestion on their network. I am also aware of some deals that Glo entered to with some corporate organisations thus creating another income stream.

Going forward, with competition, margins will reduced compounded by the end of tax holiday.

windywendy, nice write up except that you did not talk about the risks. Currency risk is a major one hear.

well, before we start the analysis paralysis, my broker sent a mail asking whether I am still interested in the MTN offer and I was like, what else should I be interested in? I mean very few stocks are that cheap especially for a TESTED company (unlike CHAMS)

Downside is that MTN is not growing as fast as Glo, they are also loosing market share. Quality of the network is dwindling and people are getting frustrated with their service. Put in another way, GLO is now the prefered choice. Most corporate organisations are actually linking up to GLO. Remember GLO launched balckberry before MTN, started per second billing and is seeing to be more friendly and 'patriotic'. Big organisations are actually entering into partnership with GLO. One of the multinational oil companies operating in Nigeria just did that. So, the management need to really step up.

That said, the offer is a good offer that those with LONG term view should not miss. It may be a quiet ride for the 3 years but after then, there will hardly be space left for new joiners. The dividend yield alone is massive.

easimoni:
It's really much shorter than that. Lots of charts and tables at the end. The koko is; they expect M&As as the banks struggle for #1; the mid-tiers will not catch up to the top-tiers despite the impressive run of late; they are all looking for ways to hand out consumer loans; they all have the same strategies for growth.

As Wanaj0 said, the number have changed a little but it makes for good reading. Small yabis dey for Aig and Access bank too. Read in-between the lines.

I enjoyed the analysis on M&A most though I don't agree with the conclusion. I don't see us having only 15 banks. 20 is more like it. M & A will be difficult except it is forced. You can see the smaller ones doing all within their power to remain relevant. If not that Atedo sold out, no way the IBTC/Stanbic merger would have gone ahead. I see First Inland and Spring following Sterling in the mergers. The others will likely weather the storm.

All the same, nice reaserach report. One reason why I prefer Afrinvest.

crazyT:
@ ICONBULL

CRAZY T, please i been wan ask u .how did u know capoil wuld be moving up, there hav been no result till date. did any of the gurus gave the hint in previous post? i rejoice with u sha! my own go soon come  


It’s very funny, but Capoil happen to be one of the first stocks I bought on NSE without any knowledge of how to pick fundamentally good stocks. I bought Afroil and Capoil almost the same time for two reasons
1. because they both carries OIL as part of there names. 2. Because they were cheap and as luck will have it  they both appreciate about 3200% and 2600% respectively between 6 to 9 months.

I guess it was a welcome gift from NSE.

See you are a GURU. Apart from OIL what other word should we look out for when picking a stock on the NSE. If it can give you 3200% and 2600% why change the strategy? Remember you don't change a winning team. Please make me your disciple OOOO.

Temmie10:
I have learned not to be too conservative about banks, they are capable of what some would call magic
Meanwhile that 88 pages i cannot read today o, but i have been keeping tabs on Union Bank too and i quite like what i see (for long term sha not exactly cico on this one)

What really is UBN offering that otehr banks are not better at doing. Just name one!!!!!!! Abeg, let that sleeping giant continue its sleep!

easimoni:
BTW, have you all downloaded  and read the Afrinvest report on the banking sector in Nigeria? A very detailed, well written and aesthetically pleasing report. Some analysts are really earning their money. Anyway, the report is very bullish on Union bank and claims they are in some sort of PP mode to raise 180B.       Anyone with more concrete gist? Some yabis for GTBank and Wema Bank was not even mentioned as a mid-tier bank. Good report. Read it!

http://www.proshareng.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/01/afrinvest-nigeria-banking-report-2008.pdf

Nice report but things have changed since then. Report was prepared in December with November data. With new developments some of the conclusions/deductions are already overtaken by events.

As per the UBN bit, not sure they got CBN approval for the placement. That's reponsible for the lull. Even at that, UBN's problem is more than money. They need new management to turn the bank around. Unfortunately, the change is being resisted.

Roughtcut, Afamako, Windywendy,

EPS 2005 was N231.60
EPS 2006 was N306.30, Dividend per share N288.6
EPS 2007 was N130.30 (half year) Dividend per share N191.5 (half year)
EPS 2007 estimate is N260.6

Note:
2007 PAT will be lower than 2007 due to tax payment. Prior to 2007, MTN was getting investmnet tax credit and enjoying a pioneer status.

Now @ $25/per share and N120.00 to a $, you have an estimated historical PE of 11.5. Far better than the historical PE's of any of the banks but not as fantastic as CHAMS.

Going forward, a 40% growth in PAT p.a. is realistic. For those who can wait for 3 years or more, I think it is a good investment. Definitely better than most offers out there.

As per comparison with South Africa, the growth rate and margin is South Africa is lower than that in Nigeria. You still have a lot of untapped market here in Nigeria. Right now the focus is mainly on voice. The market for data is huge and may even be comparable with voice. So there is room for growth.

The tax payment will impact the profit and distort teh growth rate in the FY 2007 result. But going forward, things should stabilise.

There seems to be value for those who can wait.

Though I do not have the cash flow statement, I am impressed by the balance sheet. The liability is not that much (don't think the recently syndicated loan is included). The reserve is impressive. They've accumulated cash over teh years. They just started paying dividend in 2006. So they are not highly geared like many otehr companies.

To the best of my knowledge, they are not issuing new shares so in principle the share capital is not being increased. It's more like divestment. Sand corrected on this though.

FatherOF2:
Hahahahahahahah, easimoni,leave CAPTAIN now. The guy dey fly plane and e get open mind.
You no see say na only AIRBUS AND BOEING e dey fly, e no dey fly Aeroflot from Russia.
Captain i dey enjoy this PHBflight oh.Na armed robber profit i just dey collect for this stock.
E be like my N32 target will even be exceeded at this jet speed.That will be my MURDER of the month of Jan.
Na double chopping go dey this stock this year.

Wey passenger Roughcut and Kpineo.Abi una go dey follow airhostess dey gist.

When are you using your parachute to jet out of the BOC plane? You dey wait for the result?

afamako:
@Wanaj0

I was just thinking of a different way to approach this MTN thing, since MTN Nigeria is responsible for 40% MTN Group's profits and are currently trading at about 420Rand ($59.xx) on the SA exchange, does it make some sense to use 40% of this list price as a guide to MTNN value? This translates to about $24, in which case there isn't a discount. Responses welcome from all.

Nice thinking. I did my valuation based on historical profit that shows a PE of <9.00 at the $25 per share.

The way you've done though sound logical will not stand scrutiny for myriads of reason.

blest:
Oga Wanajo, with all due respect i don't agree with you.I believe a nation is general perception of what we call ourselves.i think you're speaking from a section of the society.All my life in nigeria and abroad Nigerians are one of the brightest people i have come across. the only way we can change this perception is to send the right msg to our bothers and not make a final declaration of them.
Thank you for all contributions , men have i learnt from you.i guess others can too

That we are bright is not in doubt. It is not the same as having a reading culture. We only tend to read for exams.

How many libraries do we have in Nigeria? That tells you something

Ask how many hours people spend in a week reading and how many they spend watching home videos.

I can go on and on!!!!

Rhemagirl:
I can see some of the gurus online.Please kindly let me know the update on the NAHCO offer.Thanks

678% oversubscribed. So expect that you will ahve money to spend from the refund money!!!!!! Be on the look out for your returned cheque