₦airaland Forum

AP shares moving up because Otedola was increasing his stake. I doubt how this happen without SEC intervention. 5% holding in a company requires disclosure. He bought in his individual capacity not as Zenon.

Ckenneth, you must be a strong believer to be having hope in Unity bank. They've got nothing to prove. A badly managed bank. No strength. No niche market. Nothing really to offer. Me I am an unbelieving believer so thread with care.

On Beta Glass, solid bank just recovering after some two or three years difficulty. major challenge is NAFDAC's plan to stop the use of glass bottles by cocacola and co. Beta Glass, AG Leventis and NBC do gave something in common. They all tend to do well together. There is seems to be a link in their shareholding.

AIICO prospectus, well will have to wait for it.

Acorn PP is out for those interested. Yet to see it though.

MTN private placement, still waiting for the details.

DSR and First Bank should be money spinners in 2008. They are positioned for great things.

tonmax:
If you buy your IPO through your broker, will he still be entitled to his brokers commission??

He will be entitled to receiving agents commission (1%) but you are not the one paying for it.

floreb:
Please Dear Nairalander am new on this shares stuff, i have some money up to 100k and i want to use part of it for this bank shares. At first when i heard of Zenith coming out, i intended buying up to like 40k and maybe bank PHB 20K.

But it seems that the Zenith PO IS very expensive or is it not, because am considering selling maybe after one year and am imagining how much that will be as N36.90 now

So Dear nairalander and businessmen advice and is Bank PHB good one to buy there too

If it is the PO, I will say none. Your money may be refunded. Just go and buy on the floor.

yodiyokun:
Can you imagine? It seems round three of consolidation will commence next year ooo!!. Chei they just want to usurp those guys while they were napping?

There is an article in Business week about UBN buying seriously into Afribank Offer as well - I wonder what that means?

Now that PO's are always oversubscribed, take over is not possible - _{at least not through PO}

That was junk journalism. The part referred to was the portion that Union Bank is underwriting.

Consolidation is on. Expect between 10 to 15 banks at the end of the day.

pumping777:
_{Except for MTN}

MTN na PP not PO

texas543:
For those with ultra deep pockets read this about MTN offer


http://businessdayonline.com/National/1503.html

So simple, set up a SPV to acquire the shares. That is the way to go. Just get your US$ ready since this is not a Naira offer

Was to start on the 7th of December but no news since then.

pumping777:
Good idea. I consider the POs side betting and just buy what I call my own "rights". Why try for 100K units of Zenith if you're are not going via preferential allotment

Even preferential subscribers are not guaranteed anymore.

From the Access Bank allottment, they were a candidate for takeover!!!!!!!

No PO's for me.

But those Stanbic people are stupid. Why wait for PO when you can negotiate with the board. Why use PO to bid for over 2.6B shares of Access. Na hostile takeover be that.

FatherOF2:
Nice to know this.
I believe we pursue same goals with different strategies all borne out of experience.

Strategies differs based on experience, risk profile, portfolio size, age etc. None is right or wrong.

for all you know, Goals may even be different.

DSR is a N50.00 stock. It should fare well in 2008 especially if they jetison this quarterly dividend.

AIICO, no comment until I see the propsectus. AIICO was not doing well before.

Dunlop, no way I will buy above 3.00.

OandO can see some people singing!!!

Seun:
Does the stock broker have any choice?

Don't you have a choice to sign or not to sign? If the resident broker does not sign, the transfer cannot be done. Making someone to sign a document that will result in loss of income to him is not an easy task.

RoughCut:
There was no holiday we simply 'migrated' the discussion to stockmarketnigeria forum. Somebody even joked that nairaland has been placed on TS

Migration? Not aware of that.

I expect a strong rally with the lifting of the TS or what is the chart saying

madeonline:
Approach your resident broker (old broker) for your cscs statement of account and inter house transfer form. fill the inter house transfer form, get your resident broker to sign it out and submit to your target broker (new broker) for processing.

And you expect the resident broker to sign just like that knowing that he is losing business?

Hope you all enjoyed your holiday

nzemillion:
Oga wanajo, Windywendy, Pumping 777, Easimoni and the rest landers , please do u guys think this BGL PP is a good buy?

Not keen on those PP's. will only do a PP for telecomms companies.

yodiyokun:
This is how we know the oldies. @Wanaj0 you mean you were in PW in the days before merger with Coopers and lybrand haaaaaaaaaa.

From today onwards I have changed your name to Uncle Wanaj0. No contest

What if you see me playing Under 17 in 2009?

It is a shame that PW merged with coopers. Then we used to pride ourselves as the only firm (along with AA then) that never merged among the BIG 6

Frankiri, you are free to disagree. But in this case, you are not an impartial observer

The guy I was referring to left less than three years ago. It was after his departure that the position of DMD was created.

Yes the current DMD is a nice guy but lacks the clout to challenge Jim and his brothers.

Can see that UDOM is now an ED. How did he overtook Adeniyi on the line. Even Tunji is now a GM. Was with Udom and Tunji at Pricewaterhouse in the early 90's

windywendy:
Kai, I don miss out on some serious laughs here! Yodiyokun, see how them guys just over rule you simply because you no get back ups  . Aktopgun, you mean say Aktopgun junior still never land? Ah, I pity im mama oh _{nothing is more tiring than an unborn baby overstaying his welcome in there . . .}

But come oh, all of una wey dey mention class of 91 and other classes of the 90s, are you sure you're not exaggerating? Hehehehe . Ah don sabi my level now. Respect O! 91 ke? those were days when I was still fighting with my good 'ol papa say I no wan go study medicine _{na by force?} . Akokites, unibenites, ifeites and all the other ites, make una shift comot for road jare. There's only one great uni and that is . . . _{ok never mind}

@Wanaj0, thanks for the UBA insight. I'll look into it again. But I must say I'm quite shocked, considering that they've been cleaning up their act and aggressively recruiting. The N4b you're refering to related to the old UBA and there's a new management at the helm now. But again let me dig further and see what comes up.

All this 6-3-3-4 students are just making me feel old whereas my mates are still planning to play U 17 tournamnet come 2009!!!!

Well, UBA na special breed. If not provision for some doubtful loans, it will be provision for fraud or one extraordinary item. Basically it shows lack of good internal controls and corporate governance. Was selling my UBA in annoyance because of such issues. STB is not better. Hakeem and Tony are just similar in stule and character. Don't trust them one bit. Even in teh banking sector, Tony is considered a cow boy. Rules are secondary to him. targets first. Under such scenario, expect many infractions on good corporate governance.

That said, for long term positioning, UBA is good but can give you heart ache.

Had a friend that bought UBA at 14.00 based on the impressive quarterly report only to see it crash to 6.00 when the result was released. The money invested was his housing loan menat to build a house. You can inagine seeing your portfolio halved within a short period. That is a recipe for High blood pressure.

goggoji:
@ all
Any idea how long after closure of a PO is TS lifted. Put in another way is there a time limit to the lifting?

I think it is two weeks after receiving agents have made their returns.

damoche07:
No one seems to be talking about Big treat's listing today.it didnt even gain anything.Any views on the bread and pie company.those guys also make money o.

It will definitely gain again tomorrow. It gained 15k today though which is more than 5% allowed. The PP was not that attractive. However, people are BUYING just anything so no wahala.

FatherOF2:
200% in agreement on this post ONLY
Bold print in focus.

You no serious!!!!!!

You have this impression that I am against your style. That is not true. I only raise RED flag for people that don't know the inherent risk in the strategy. For example, you buy liquid stocks with fundamentals. Not sure how what your portfolio diversification is like. Also not sure what your risk tolerance is like. Those are things the disciples need to know before plunging in.

Back to the issue, for whatever it takes, if I try to take positions (LONG TERM) between NOV/JANUARY.

BOC and VITAFOAM are normally the first to release their results.

Cadbury tend to follow. After you have the Q3 results of most banks. By the time those results are out, it becomes late to enter.

aktopgun:
C&i leasing have dropped consistently in the last 2-3 days and are a long term play for me as well (if my broker can pull his finger out)

i will just chill for now and i'm not planning any capital injection into my protfolio till beginning of 2nd quarter '08. will be looking at unilever closely though.turnaround company, finally cleaning up their act.

If you are not in by end jan. 2008 you will be palying catch up. By February, Q3 result of most of the banks will be out, March/April full year result of most of the manufacturing companies with Dec as end year will be out. Normally, most gains are made in the first half of the year. So Dec/January is the time to enter.

Yodiyokun, not sure the existing shareholders got a better deal. Before, you are almost guaranteed the extra you applied for in a rights issue.

Dangote Sugar is doing fine but will wait for it to crash the 40.00 band. Once that is done, we can shout helluva.

Diamond is next on my list. Still scouring for the next HIT after that.

Chellarams is representing, gained 5%. Nigerian German must hit 28 by fire by force.

For 2008, my bet is on Dangote Sugar and First Bank. They both have things going in their favour. If the expansion effort of Dangote should materialise, that is the bomb.

Flour Mills will come a distant 3rd but that is dependent on the Q2 result.

For the small caps, Trans Express and Capital Oil are still moving steadily.

Where are those that did not do the 6-3-3-4 nonsense?

That way we can use that to determine those that should be suicide bombers

RoughCut:
Nice one!

Did anybody notice Dangote Sugar is flying?(don't need to do a chart  for that one!)

RedStar Express has done 103% since it was listed on the NSE about 4-5 weeks  ago and only about 4-5 people are responsible for this state of affairs they managed to shift about 544,000 today. Methinks there's a PO in the offing i don't think its a simple case of people taking profit. In fact the volume involved today is more than all the volumes combined  since it was listed. (Would like to do  OBV analysis for this one)

Dangote need to break the 40.00 mark and head towards 52.00 which is my target price.

The dividend from Dangote sugar dey sweet no be small.

On Redstar, na same people just shifting portfolio just to 'fool' people. No trading is going on. All na lie. Yes a PO is in the offing.

yodiyokun:
What was funny about the rights issue allotment? Was it as ridiculous as the PO allottment, or you got a better deal through the rights

Normally for rights you get ALL your entitlements. Problem start with extra alotment.

All those that applied for extra 10,000 units and below got 1,000 units each.

Anything between 10,001 and 25,000 gets 10% allotment. Anything above that gets between 5% and 2%!!!!

easimoni:
BTW, did anyone notice that the Zenith prospectus NEVER mentions PE ratio at offer price? Instead they use "earnings yield at offer price" Sneaky! Note that earnings yield (Zenith's is 4.9% at the offer price) is the inverse of PE; that gives us a forward PE of 20.4 @ the offer price and 24 at the market price. It 50% more expensive than the FCMB, Fidelity and PHB offers. I guess there's a premium to be paid for ownership in the #2 coy on the NSE (or is it for the "Ovia" name? ).

They actually had the PE in the full prospectus.

The 2008 forecast is surely understated. N28bn, no way. Q1 they're already close to N10bn.

The error I picked up is the number of shares oustanding at June 2008. They were talking about 11bn instead of 14bn.

That said, it is a solid offer. At least little of that branch expansion nonsence. 40% of the underwritten portion already preferentially alloted. Well, Anything more than 20,000 units is risky.

Saw the First Bank righst issue allotmment and I laughed!!!!

aktopgun:
thanks barge

Thought you are preparing the arrival announcement

Na so una dey panic??

damoche07,

You are right on the ABO production. Production is going down fast. It is governed by PSC rules. It was really a very small field in the scheme of things.

Those blocs are not lucrative. They are marginal field. That's partly why Shell is willing to let go.

Doubt though whether AP will be able to raise the funds for the acquisition.

ololufemi:
@ all,

Flour mill is coming into my trajectory line and its starting to beep.

Lets watch this stock. If it falls to between 70 and 73, i go enter oh.

Attention: Fatherof2, pumping, Easimoni, Yodiyokun, Roughcut, Shigidi, Temmie10, Wanaj0, aktopgun (hope junior don drop), and everyone wey dey nairaland

Flour Mill is a LONG term BUY.

ololufemi:
@ All,

My mu just received her Oceanic certificates. hope others on this forum have received their too.

I m still expecting mine to be delivered and we used the same postal address.

Beats my imagination

any helpful news on this.

If you bought more quantities than your mum, you may be asked to come and pick up your certificate. That may be a reason.

Note also that the certificates are always posted in batches. It is not an easy job.

pumping777:
This particular bid is not driving the price. It is the fact that AP is going into the sector generally. I think 4 events have significantly(and suddenly each time) driven the price of AP in the past 4 months.

1. Resolution of the court cases with AP.
2. The resumption of Otedola as Chairman
3. The announcement of the new executive officers
4. APs foray into the downstream petroleum sector

In the first 3 cases, at least a 25% rise in the price is sustained. Don't expect any major correction. I bought at N60 in August and sold for N95 in September expecting a correction. I am still waiting

Regarding wether AP will get something or not, you just have to factor in Otedola. Not saying he will get this one, and it may only be symbolic really but the man has a way of getting things. I have a feeling AP will end up being the biggest player in this sector.

AP always being in the downstream sector. They are just joining the upstream sector.

The major thing responsible for the rise in price of AP is the resolution of the debt overhang and the taking over of NNPC share by Otedola.

That said, the margin in that sector is small. AP is lagging behind the other majors. So don't see how that translates to better profits except for market sentiments.

pumping777:
Sorry, no real info on this company. I have some numbers. The projected PE is around 31. The company is doing worse as at Q-2 this year than last year.  Lower turnover and lower PAT.

I think this belongs to Adenuga se? This could be a factor. The man does not seem to be able to end his problems with the government. I read this week that the British government want to probe him and is asking for Nigeria's assistance. I'm not sure if he is back in the country yet after eloping.

Conoil facing the same problem like all the other petroleum marketing companies. Dwindling profits. Untill there is full deregulation or price increase, no show.

pumping777:
I commented on this a few weeks ago.

I joined the ship 3 weeks ago @N77. I'm jumping ship today after over 40%. No liver again. AP is the main driver in the sector especially with Otedola. As AP continues to head north Oando and Total are bound to follow. Expections of companies moving from marketing to downstream oil sector. This is an area where an Oteodola advantage is expected.

AP is bidding to take over some Shell infrastructure.

However, Oando is ahead of AP in terms of earnings and I've seen a presentation of their strategic business plan. So if AP is moving so is OandO. Also Oando still has a much lower projected PE than AP. 30 to 22.

OandO is fundamentally better than AP. Governance issues is my fear with OandO. Forward PE of <20.00 is good for OandO.

Nothing special about the bloc that AP is bidding for. Shell is selling its minority share (43% or so). Production from the block is about 21,000bopd. Not much if you ask me.

Until the sector is deregulated, watch with care.

RoughCut:
Welcome to the world of executive recruitment/head-hunting
I don't know sha but i think  Zenith can afford to pay a couple of million pounds i meant naira to these head-hunters to find someone with the right calibre and experience to run the bank when Ovia decides to take the back seat. Or we don't have such coys in nigeria who can do this? if that is the case may be that is something i need to start thinking about

Not too sure  that the next CEO has to come from inside Zenith but then i suppose it's going to be a bit of a challenge to get someone in from the 'heavy-weight' banks to run Zenith just my thoughts by the way

BTW:Read that Orient refinery (hoping to be first refinery in naija) is doing a private placement of 50kobo ordinary shares at N100 per share and the minimum application is for 1,000 units(a lot cheaper than MTN ) and UBA Global Markets are the finacial advisers. The refinery will be producing 55,000bpd and hoping to come on stream in early '09. At least since it's privately owned we would not have to put up with the horror stories we have had with our 'refineries

The offer closes end of December

An outsider coming to run Zenith is not going to be that smooth. Not with the current shareholding structure. Jim will still wield too much influence. That's why I liked GTB. The shareholding structure by the promoters makes things quite easy. Moreover they've all kept 'faith' with the initial agrrement.

Yes, they do executive head hunting in Nigeria. Very common indeed. Check the move of WAPCo's MD to Obajana!!!!

On Orient, I will say a no no!!!!!! Yet to see the prospectus but nothing attractive about that project. Third time that they will be raising money. Not sure of the success of the previous ones.

To start with, no pipeline around that area. So crude supply and product distribution will be a problem. Secondly, there is no port around them so the infrastructural cost will be huge. They can't break even in a deregulated market like the one that we have now. The project is fraught with a lot of issues. Moreover, the private placment that they are doing will likely be for the Refinery and not for the holding company! The holding company may have more potential.

ololufemi:
@ Pumping777,


Thanks a lot Pumping for those words of wisdom.

I just want to let the house know a few things here.

I remember that some few years ago at IBTC (old Investment Banking and Trust Company) people thought that Atedo Peterside did not have a succession plan for his bank and that he was majorly the face of the bank.

At that time, th bank shares were sold at an IPO price of N4.30.

I would like to say that currently, it is a subsidiary of a global bank and he still remains the largest individual shareholder and he is also the bank's chairman.

Sola David Borha pioneered the bank with him and was relatively unknown to most people until recently when she was appointed MD and CEO.

The same can be said of GTB also.

look into the history of Zentih and find out the pioneers of the bank and whatb their vision is for the bank. I am sur you will be surprised that there is a well laid out plan for succession.

Remember nobody lives forever and the best organisations are those that outlive their founders.

None of the current players in Zenith is a major shareholder.

On IBTC, sorry, Borha was not a key player. Check out Edun's name. Olawale Edun was next to Peterside on the succession list.

IBTC/Standard Bank merger is baiscally Peterside's way of saying he is out of the banking sector!!! Don't see Borha lasting on that seat. Peterside was not happy with the consolidation programme. He was not willing to get involved with retail banking either.  Merger with Standard was a profitable way of saying bye! It has nothing to do with succession planning.

Zenith currently has a DMD. Not sure how much clout he will possess if Jim leaves. Will he be able to stand up to Jim? Don't think so knowing the amount of shares that Jim and his brothers have among themselves.

Anybody watching OandO?? Now close to 110.00. If you bought last week, you should be having over 25% now. Did anyone pick this up with their charts and trends?

Windywendy,

On UBA, move with care. Everything is right with UBA except the penchant for some huge 'provisions' to cover some extraneous items. This started during Bello Osagie's deals. Since then, UBA has become a cautious BUY. Fraud is so rampant in that bank. Unsecured loans and insider credit is regular. Breaking of banking rules seems to be an habit. At the old STB, they were just paying fines like no mans business. In terms of corporate gorvernance, UBA ranks very low.

So, the N4bn provision this year is not a one off for UBA. It is a regular occurence that you should factor in going forward.

For me, the bank to stick with is the elephant. People will be suprised by the kind of profit that First Bank will post next year. Just watch out!!!!

pumping777:
I've heard this several times. How is everyone so sure that Zenith does not have a succession plan?? Do you think the man expect to live forever? He may exert a lot of influence but this is no longer a small company and it is public.

Succession planning as a company policy has been around for a few decades now. I don't see why Zenith Bank will be waiting for senior executives or managers to die before putting one in place. There must be Senior Managers or Executives that are being positioned to take over strategic positions.

I know this was seriously highlighted in 2006 but I don't expect that Management is to dumb not to have done anything about it.

Nothing to show that they have a succession plan. Put another way, if they do, the plan is not working. The guy being touted as successor (an ED) left for Oceanic not too long ago.

Take a look at GTB. Adeola left and Aderinokun took over. It is pretty obvious that Agbaje is next on the line. Intercontinental is also like that. No plan to replace Erastus. For UBA, not expecting any problem. Chika will likely be the one to take over.

Surprisingly, I don't expect Oceanic to face the same problem. Ibru was not the pioneer CEO. The recent recruitment of some egg heads as ED's shows that something is cooking.