₦airaland Forum

windywendy:
You're very right Wanaj0, Flour mills is wwaaayyy cheaper going by the PE alone. But I believe Bagco's PE should be higher than that of Flour mills, because it has a higher growth potential than flour mills _{at least as far as I know}. How much higher this PE should be than that of flour mills is an open question. But 23 is not that bad, especially in comparison to the market as a whole (how many liquid stocks have PE's under 20 ) and in comparison to the packaging sector specifically.

I get your gist. Just not that enamoured with it.

PO's normally come out at PE's of <10. Because of the bullish environment, we are having PE's at outrageous PE's!!!

Right now, keeping my money under the pillow is now an option. It is not a MUST to BUY. Not sure the market can sustain the ridiculous PE's for long. 70.00 stock paying less than 1.00 dividend? Not sustainable!

aktopgun:
@bros wanajo

i holla!

question: when u say that u never sell all your holdings in a company, is there a limit put on the number of shares one has left so as to qualify for the bonuses, annual reports etc?
i like the idea as usually the companies don't change too much for one to completely pull out (though this can happen, it is relatively rare )

what say u?

Abeg, na the anouncement we all dey wait for. Anounce or get away How is madam?

In principle there is no limit. I however limit my own to 500 units. Funny thing is that those small 500 units over time may also grow to become BIG!

steeviee:
@ wanajo

good one. it makes me fill i'm not the only one in this. since u've gotten the Annual report does that mean u are a shareholder also ?

anyway please more info about this. many thanks

@barge

i'll critically look at your suggestion. Is just that i'm kind of fed-up with the broker thing. they often give u a reason to change them.

Heard of PHB Asset mgt. what is your take on that?

Yes bought NEM many years ago @ 0.60. Sold @ 90% of my holdings @ 0.90 and after qualifying for a rights issue of 3 for 1 @ 0.56 (that's why I don't sell ALL my holdings in a company). Took the rights and bought more NEM later @ 0.60. They did another rights issue last year but did not BUY because of lack of funds. Was buying UNIC and May and Baker that time.

While I love the swings, I am not fascinated with the fact that NEM has not paid dividend in ages. Though the merger with Vigilante is doing fine, not sure what the outstanding share figures are.

model1780:
Please which shares can one buy now if lookin @ a return of lik2 25% in the next 90 days?

Not able to help here. Capital market to me is for 'long' term. So if you use short term funds for long term investment you will have a mismatch.

Interesting piece on Globe Re


http://www.proshareng.com/myproshare/portal_articles.php?id=1341

If First Bnak is really buying inyo Globe RE, I expect them to get their license back. The NAICOM Chairman being a former MD of Globe Re, the current minister of State for finance being a former Executive Director of First Bank just makes this scenario plausible.

MyPeace:
Wanajo,
hahahaha, you must always be yourself. Am used to your ways

Well, to be fore warned is to be , Just perform or else MEND go soon be after you.

steeviee:
hello my people

it seems NEM insurance is heavily sort after. It has been going northwards since last week. i told my broker to get it but its been stories. i intend cash in with 4-5months in mind looking at its previous capabilty and its present potential.

does anyone share view? easimoni, wanajo, fatherof2, temmie10,

NEM will do well. Just got their annual report, BUT all is not yet clear as per teh oustanding shares. NEM merged with Vigilant but yet to see the scheme of merger!!!!! Nothing about the share exchange ratio. Everything is kept secret like other insurance companies.

barge:
@ steviee

first you need to get a new broker , Nem ins is not that scarce with millions been traded everyday. I don't know about the price but one possible reason is THE INVESTMENT ADVISORY from ibtc. Once a company appears on the watch list of the big brokerage firms ,the price heads north because a lot of investors rely on those recomendation to choose stocks ,especially the short-term traders.

That you see millions being traded is not a sign that the share is available. As at 31st December 2006, NEM had only 2,722 shareholders. 24 shareholders own about 92.93% of the company and you can be sure that those guys are not selling. Even if they are going to sell, it will be strategic sales that will most likely be cross deals. Some of those 2,722 shareholders only have certificates that are not registered in CSCS!!!

On Bagco, I consider it expensive.

Windy's analysis was spot on.

However, a FORWARD PE of 23 for end year 2008 for the packaging sector is expensive!!!!!!!!!!! Except I am not reading right, the PE in the prospectus was for FY 2008!!! Flour Mills itself has a forward PE of about 15.00. Would rather buy Flour Mills than BAGCo. That is not to say that you will not amke money by buying the IPO.

Actually, BAGCo has the highest margin in Flour Mills operation. Solid company but I consider the offer expensive.

On First Bank, it is trusted. Good for both income and capital appreciation. May not see the 'abnormal' flunctuations associated with some other stocks but over time, if you do a trend analysis over the past ten years, First Bank returns will be in the top quartile. It is part of the stocks that you can buy and go and sleep. It constitute over 25% of my portfolio and that is one stock that I never sold any part of my hodings. Steady dividend and bonus payment.

Rob-roy:
Wanajo
http://punchng.com/Articl.aspx?theartic=Art200712041475873

Mypeace should do something ASAP!

People make friends here but Mypeace will end up making many enemies with moi being number one!!!!! She must just deliver even if it is onle 10 units of Trans Express.

When you see a rights (not hybrid) know that something is cooking.

On Eterna Oil, nothing special. The petroleum marketing sector is passing through difficult times. This will continue until there is an increase in price of petroleum products. Current margin is so small for the major operators.

easimoni:
You self don notice? Temmie mention Standard Alliance and it gains 50% in a month, Shigidi and Beta Glass; the stock is moving out-of-range, Wanaj0 and NGC; up 30+%, Fatherof2 and Access, Pumping and Unic/Law Union. You guys need to let me buy, THEN let the cat out of the bag. _{Me self try with Ikeja Hotels[size=8pt][/size]}

What of your Wema?

That's what you get from patience

OandO continues its gradual march. From 70.00 range it is now above 94.00. What's cooking

FatherOF2:
@ Mypeace
Be patient my dear,be patient.I'm watching for you.
ON WATCH MODE NOW.

A virtue every investor must have.

MyPeace:
@Wanajo
hhahaha , l just need the money for bank PHB, thats why am concerned.

Must we buy all offers?

MyPeace:
@ Fatherof2,

Abeg another temptation

Lasaco is decreasing instead of increasing. Do you still foresee the 35% in my bought price of N3.25 by next week thursday?

please talk to me, whats is happening?

Dry bones shall rise again.

Hope people will not develop high BP with worries about daily flunctuations. Focus on the long term

aylala2002:
5. Prospective speculative investors who aspire to reap the benefits of capital appreciation through early disposal of their share holdings will be well advised to buy from the secondary market. The price at the secondary market which will be higher than the price of issue on offer is the price at which the concerned bank is placed on “technical suspension”. During the technical suspension period, the secondary market price will remain unchanged pending the conclusion of the new issue. Notwithstanding, having considered the atmosphere in the capital market right now, I STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT INVESTORS GO FORCELY FOR POs and PRIVATE PLACEMENTs., more of POs due to the market awareness and regulations.


My subsequent postings will X-ray value stocks that will blow your mind in 2008. Watch Out!

THANK YOU.

If you can get the same stock to buy on the NSE why wait for the PO? I mean why tie your money down for so long with the attendant risk of refund money?

If there is something to avoid it is PO's!!!

MyPeace:
Here comes the much awaited man and thread!!!!. Thank you for that of 2007, it was a bomb and 2008 will be "bombier" We await ernestly for your immense contributions.

Happy Xmas in advance

To make it BOMBIER[i][/i], bring my Trans Express. It is now close to 1.40 from 0.68!!!

2008 is still FAR. A lot to still gain and lose in 2007!!! I mean you still have a whole month to turn things around.

kingzy:
@wanajo,
Does afrinvest has online monitoring website like cash craft because I want to get another bocker. Can u imagine, I ordered my brocker to buy access when it was 19.01, @ 19 or below and he bought it @ 21. I was furious and when I asked I was told that the order was executed @ Lagos . Please does afrinvest have branch in PH because I dey PH. Thanks

Afrinvest has an office in PH. I think they are at Olu Obasanjo.

Afrinvest also has online monitoring. However they are cutting over their systems right now so it is epileptic. I expect that to be over soon.

Well, the problem you had with your broker is not clear. If you gave an order and you SPECIFY a price limit, if the limit was exceeded just ask them to reverse the order!!!! Don't pay for someones else lapses. However if you did not specify a price limit, it can happen with any broker. So as a rule, have a price limit clearly stated. Don't leave things to the whims and caprices of the broker.

damoche07:
Labo., am a rookie on this forum but the words 'love' and 'like' set my alarm bells ringing. emotions shouldnt form your opinion about choosing a stock.I used to be like that until i joined this forum.Now i can invest anywhere except the breweries whose business are against my convictions. About NAHCO,giving bonuses will depend on th company's history wit bonuses.I thot they just did a P.O which means they are already adding more shares.In my limited opinion,i don't think they will. Any divergent and better responses to Labo's enquiry please.

Words of wisdom from an elder.

Labo:
Hi Wanajo,

I like to acquire some shares of NAHCO. I love share bonus.
Do you think NAHCO will give some bonus next year?
I was looking at their result it seems o7 in better than 06 so far.
A reply will be much appreciated.

cheers

Looking for someone to buy my NAHCO at 30.00. As a good friend, I can sell to you.

Don't see why anyone should by NAHCO though!!! Too me, it is way over valued.

BTW, what's the obsession with bonus?

BIG BOY LARRY should help with his crystal ball. Mere mortal like me cannot determine what will ahppen in the future

damoche07:
Am i the only one using cashcraft on this forum. Am having some problems with them of late.Concerning Afrinvestwa,how quick and reliable are they with transactions? I don't stay in Lagos,so i can't afford to be visiting their office after opening my account.I want to look well before i leap so i wont jump from frying Pan into the furnace?

Cash craft and Afrinvest are in the same building. That's where the similarities ends!!!

being with Afrinvest for a while and never being to their office!!!!! Enough said. Just make sure you have a nice relationship with your account manager.

web_master:
HI. This is one of the most educative thread in this forum. I need advice from you gurus. I have 500,000 (Naira) and am been advised by a broker to invest it all on NIgerian brewies. Is this is a good idea. Need your help on this please.

No one can reasonably advice you because they no next to nothing about you!!!! Of course you can BUY anything but will it meet your objective? Does it agree with your risk profile? Is the expected return from NBL in line with your financial plan?

Investment in stocks is always a good idea

wola:
Hi guys, I like your incisive analysis of the stock market, you guys have given some of us the impetus to go ahead and invest in the market.
I have a poser for you guys.I just started buying stocks last month,and I have the following stocks,5000 units of FCMB,5000 units of PHB,20000 units of Japaul,and 50000 units of Bagco. The value of all this stocks is just about 500,000 Naira.My poser is this,is it possible that I can trade with this shares and be able to make Two million Naira by June 2008?

I want to go do my Master's degree in September 2008 and it is going to cost me approximately Two mill, and I feel that the stock market should be able to pay for it.

I also intend investing another 300,000 in the next couple of months in the stock market.

So guys,is this feasible or just wishful thinking on my part?

With God all things are possible but I seriously doubt that you will achieve this within the time frame.

For example, I am assuming that you bought those shares via public offers. It will take time to get your certificates. After that you will have to get a broker to verify the certificates before you can start trading. All those normally take close to 8 months!!! So you may need to adjust your plan and strategy.

Naijadr:
Ah thanks for sharing, I just had a similar wahala with Crusader, issued a buy order a while back, forgot about it since it wasnt purchased then, till last week when broker bought it, luckily it was a very small order but at N5.01 I just shook my head. I decided then to put buy limit, now it also makes sense to put sell limit, didnt think of that. I like the date expiration as well, I'm going to be applying those concepts since it takes my broker like 2days to buy/sell.
Very much appreciated!

Thanks for that spreadsheet, I've been an FSDH subscriber for a while, so its so easy to update the price column

Thank Yodiyokun for pasting the spreadsheet.

Naijadr:
oga jehosaphat, thanks for the shout out, I noticed it was page 199 and was waiting for someone else to christen pg 200, this forum is amazing, I actually read through it all before I joined the NSE in Oct and I'm officially addicted. 2008 will be a good year for all of us oh, Amen!
I love reading other people's testimony (profits made) and losses as well because it shows me what to do and what I should maybe not do

Let me share some experience of losses with you.

Bought busines times and check for stocks with the lowest PE's. Savannah Bank was one of them. So Bought 10,000 units at 0.80!!!! Never bothered to find out about the facts behind the figures!!!!

Gave an instruction to my Broker to buy UNTL. Did not specify a price limit. Then it was about 2.00. many months later, I got a contract note that they've executed my order at 4.65. Since then, no other without limits whether BUY or SELL. Also, I have expiry dates for my orders. Sometimes I validate them everyday.

Sold Okomu to buy Presco. Well Okomu released a bad interim result so I sold. Presco released a good interim result so I bought. At year end, Presco's result was so bad that I sold fast. Though the loss was minimal (less than 5% after charges) can't help but laugh at myself. Exceptional items can affect results greatly. So factor that in when making projections. Presco had an exceptional item that reduced their profits.

Can't remember any other loss

So hope ALL can see that I am human.

No point talking about the gains.

question:
Any good or bad experience with NIB, former CITIBANK? Share with us.
They are the largest bank in US but in Nigeria, they don't even have ATM or online banking.

NIB or Citibank in Nigeria is not into retail banking. So they don't need ATM's.

Afrinvest will likely not take anything less than 500k. A lot has changed of recent.

stanchuks:
@ WANAJO
chairman i just came back from work now and found out that i had 4pages to go through on this trend which i just finished now and most especially found you were sharing love to my ogas and madams on the trend,mind u me i no be sucid bomber, i be one of your students oooo Please sir i would like you to send me whatever you sent others, just like my able oga pumping777 did for us, i only have the weekend to study all this, i am building a library and soon i go arrive. before i forget i just wanted to thank you for your info on NGC last 3months i entered at 13.58 and exited at 22.4, i no get liver reach that your 28 target, i actually had a take profit of 20. GOD BLESS my add na talk2ugwu at yohoo dot com

@Easimoni
My oga welcome back sir, hope you got my mail,i finally got BETAGLASS and FCMB, shiqidi no show face today abi him still dey find BETAGLASS,

Yodiyokun will post the spreadsheet on the forum!

Not in a hurry to sell my Nigerian German. Don't mind holding on till next year when the result is announced. If they drop rumour of bonus then another NAHCO be that. Bought al 4.00 last year before buying more at 12.82. Congrats on your actual profit. Until I sell, na paper profit I get.


FCMB is on serious bid in expectation of the lifting of Technical suspension. You are lucky that you got it.

jehosaphat:
@ Wanajo.
Field Marshal, leave this "premature ejaculation" thing alone now?? You be pastor by calling o! It leaves a sour taste in the mouth after digesting every other astounding comment you have labored to deliver.

Apologies if I offend the sensibilities of anyone. It was a phrase that I picked up on a football forum and I find it very interesting!!!

shigidi:
@ wanajo,
reading you talk about portfolio diversification is a real eye opener and inspiration.
your story is really interesting, i just started trading in march, like you when you first started i just bought anything, just managed to recover recently thanks to this thread, i have learnt so much on stocks and i am always grateful to men like you, and the main the main easimoni for your help.
what worries me is for someone like me who just started and is trying to build a portfolio, will the market be as god as it has been in 7 years time. i remember as a kid(which was practically 7 years ago) seeing guiness at 10 naira and banks at 1 naira, can our market continue to grow at this rate so sme1 like me can hit a billion someday? thats what worries me greatly. what do you think of this.

My brother, teh best time to start investing was yesterday. Next best time is TODAY! Forget about the past. Focus on today and teh future.

For as long as the economy is growing, the NSE will continue to grow. With more regulation and sophistication, the gains might reduce. However over the LONG TERM, you will do well.

If you look at the prices of stocks in past years you will buy nothing. That said, hope you know that WAPCo use to be the most capitalised stock on the NSE until they have problems. NBL was next to them until they started the 1 for 1 nonsense bonus.

If you stick with fundamentally sound stocks, that are growing and expanding with good management you will be fine.

Stocks will never return to their old levels. You can also be rest assured that they will not stay at current level. So, join the TRAIN!!!!!

Geees:
Thanks a million.
One question when you say a stock is illiquid what quantity of trades would u consider to be liquid?
A range of say 5-10million units of trade weekly?
Cheers

@Yodiyokun,
The email is etbholdings (at) yahoo (dot) ca
Thanks a lot

many things guides my definition of liquidity. Firstly it has to do with the number of shareholders, the distribution of the shareholding, and then the average daily trade. All those factors basically determine whether you will buyers and sellers at any given time.

Stocks where you have institutional investors having substantial holdings, or where the number of shareholders are few, or where the number of oustanding shares is limited, I will classify those are illiquid stocks.

Cross deals can distort the liquidity when you look at average trades. You can see 'huge' trades that are cross deals. That does not indicate that the stock is liquid.

Also, absolute numbers does not say much. Flour Mills for example will likely trade less than 500,000 units a day. But it is a liquid stock. Nascon may have average trades higher than that but it is not as liquid.

Hope I am making sense

Yodiyokun, abeg help paste the spreadsheet on the forum before katakata go burst. Will have to explain to explain to the guy later.

So ALL contact her

Geees:
I do not understand this request however if like a disclaimer, I sure can't blame you for your suggestions. That would be childish.
My desire is to build up a strong portfolio. Your information will help me achieve this
I hope I understand you.
Cheers

Sorry I am referring to the spreadsheet.

Will always make my two kobo advice available if it will serve any useful purpose.

bjluv:
@wanaj0,

Does Afrinvest have any min. investment sum like some other brokers with millions Naira?

read u said 500,000

500k is the minimum. That's the info as at Monday the 26th of November

BabaOlu:
@wanajo,
thanks for your response. Please what is there address at Island and who do you recommend I meet for effective service?

12th floor, Foreshore Towers, 2A Osborne Road, Ikoyi Lagos. Same place with cashcraft.

Ask for Mrs Ifashe or Mrs Balogun. Posted their e-mail a while ago.

Being with them for years and never had cause to visit their office. That to me is a sign of effectiveness. They hardly come to me also except in case of emergencies. All transactions done via e-mail and ocassionally on phone.

Geees:
Thanks Wanaj0 for the other day about Chellrams.
Please do send my the spread sheet the email is etbholdings (at) yahoo (dot) ca

On being a pastor hmm,
The net is interesting i go watch my fingers before i get commit premature ejec or mouth diahorrea.
Thanks in advance for the info.
Once again your advice is treasured.  I say this knowing that ones fingerts can get really stiff responding on the thread,
Cheers

Abeg, check my other post. Let the guy confirmed that my public disclosure will not jeopardise his enterprise. Apologies.

BabaOlu:
@wanajo,
what's the minimum money required to open account with afrinvest?

500k was the last that I heard.

My Peace, where is my Transnationwide. from 0.63 it is now 1.36!!!!!!!!

windywendy:
Thanks Temmie10! Baby's doing great.

Any new stock ideas or PPs in the horizon? I have a stash of cash waiting to be invested . . .

MTN private placment will likely start on the 7th of December. Minimum investment is US$2m. Learnt that you can pool resources together to enter. That should be good for your stashed cash!!!!!!

windywendy:
WOW! I'm gone a few weeks and look how this thread has expanded and changed Amazing. This is definitely a testimony to the talents we have in Nigeria. Keep the good work up guys!

What spreadsheet(s) is/are everyone talking about? @Pumping777 it seems there's one from you, and @Wanaj0, it seems there's one from you too. Please send me copies (email is windywendy121 at hotmail). _{Keeping up with the market is becoming more of a challenge these days . . .}

Windywendy, long time no hear!!!!!!!

The transfer pricing you talked about with Dangote Flour is about to happen now with BAGCO. So what saith thou??

Mr. Cee:
@ WANAJO,

Oga wanajo You know when you speak everyone listens, to select just few people to benefit from your wonderful compilation is not fair. You asked for it you made your email open I believe you should be kind enough to send the info to anyone that requested it or better still put the link on this thread so that interested people can download it. On this thread you are rated high and u should not turn your followers down.

Apologies for those offended by the selctive distribution. Like I said, it is not an article neither is it a software. It's basically historical data built over the years. Now I gave it to someone who wanted to develop a database and a website. I need to be sure that mass distribution of the same data will not jeopardise the commercial viability of his enterprise. Give me some days to check that out with him.

Like I said, no calculation is done in sheet. No alert or signals. Just historical price data of stocks dating back to 2001 and also results (quarterly and yearly) as announced on the floor since 2001. The other information is the bonus/dividend announced with dates of announcement, closure date and payment date.

So please, nothing fantastic or out of the ordinary from the spreadsheet. Moreover if you are short term/technical trader it is of little or no use.

Ignore the premature ejaculation of some people on this thread. Nothing really special. Pumping's sheet does calculation, issue elerts and many more. That's what peeps will need.