₦airaland Forum

Market is dull

Paulordiah:
you can not compare five years of university training to all those road side seminars,

5 yrs in the University has its own advantages while those road-side seminars teach you how to be smart on the street. We have an army of unemployed graduates that can use their sixth sense to start small scale businesses, yet we have wealthy folks that did not attend the university.

You need both training to survive in this current economic era.

myjoy085:
Did I just heard someone said "I will buy and go to sleep.... " Bros, please I will not say much but I must warn you to be extremely careful in the trust you are giving to these Nigeria financial statements because many are manipulated and their managements very corrupt. Key: be very very vigilant like an eagle.

Absolutely correct.

You need to be careful of holding any stock forever, every financial instrument has its own cycle.... The watchword is vigilance and make your gains and enjoy your loot.

angelo82:
http://nairametrics.com/cbn-sells-1-year-treasury-bills-at-whopping-22-pa/

Best Days for TBills in Naija

feelamong:
VERY POOR RETURNS..

WHEN PEOPLE ARE GETTING 16% PER ANNUM PURCHASING TBILLS THEM SELVES..

Exactly! Why invest with mutual fund when you can make much more yourself. And the funny thing is that they are still going to charge their mgt fee.

This is good news and the way forward. The problem is always the ability to sustain the progress, lets hope they can build on this and take over all markets in the east.

sammily:
My NTB for 182 and 364 days didn't fly with First bank, and I went with their bank rate as usual. They just refunded my money

I'm left now with Stanbic, I bidded myself (17% for 182 days and 18% for 364 days) but yet to be debited.

FBN consummated my bid for 182 days. Funny indeed.

Kalusam:
The spray tubes that is required for 1 acre of land is 1km(depending on what you are growing), however the minimum order you can get high quality Spraytube through us is 2km. This is because we deal directly with the manufacturers and anything below 5km is considered as a small order...we had to 'beg' and persuade them to treat 2km spray tubes orders due to our long term business relationship with them, they agreed! It will cost you NGN230,000 for the 2km spay tubes only. Payment and how to order same as above!

Thanks for the detailed explanation, I will get back to you.

Pls what is the cost of spray tube irrigation(with accessories( that will cover an acre of land?

OBAGADAFFI:
You are Right most of them are long Term investors.

These people just buy shares and keep for the future, they even transfers it to their children.


My Dad was angry at me the first time i told him about the JIJO concept . He kept saying you children of nowadays are impatient.

What is the percentage of those folks in this category, maybe just few lucky ones.

I have been an active investor since yr 2000, if you give me another chance to move back, I will rather be a JIJO/short term master than buying shares for long term keep. It aint worth it at all.

Btw March - Aug 2016, a period of 6 months, I should be making like 750k on JIJO alone.

If you purchase 500,000 shares of FBN in March 2016 at an historical low of =N=3.20k and sold at =N=4.36k in May 2016 during the height of the rumour of floating exchange rate, you will have a profit of not less than =N=500k within a 3 months cycle.

If you reinvest your principal back into GTB at =N=20/=N=21 BTW June & July 2016, you will have like 70,000 shares, GTB shares will hit at least =N=24 /=N=25 as a result of interim dividend, you will have profit of not less than =N=250k in another 3 months cycle. Move your gains to TBills of 180days @ 14% will give you additional income of =N=50k from Sept 2016 with your capital & profit intact for another trading session.

We still have the Dec/Jan rally and March/April rally..

Why wait till KM10 when I can achieve my objective at KM1, KM3, KM6, KM7 and take my profit and cut my losses. What is the assurance that you will even get to KM10 ?

manie:
N20000 would have bought 1000 units of Nestle shares in 1999, this 1000 units would have grown to about 2000 units in 2016 valued at about N1.6 million. If the investor had reinvested his dividends like I do the value must have grown astronomically.


N300k will buy a Tokunbo V booth Benz or 15000 units of Nestle shares in 1999. Fast forward to 2016, the V-booth is now a scrap valued at N100k, while the Nestle shares is now 30000 units valued at around N24 million.

First, How many folks can afford to cough out =N=300k in 1999 ? A good short term player make well over =N=50m for same 17yrs period.

I dont think I am willing to stick out my neck for any coy for 17 years, too much risks and uncertainty. Nestle is just one tough -lucky damn stock on the NSE that had consistently performed in terms dividend and cap appreciation.

Honestly, how many blue chip stocks on the NSE can match Nestle performance? Ask those folks that bought FBN around =N=33/Share and still holding, ask those folks that bought UBA at =N=37, ask those folks that bought Oando =N=125/share and still holding .... Ask shareholders of Oceanic, Intercontinental, Cadbury, etc etc etc.

I always smile when some advocate of long term holding always quote Buffet in support of their analysis, Nigeria is a different ball game where coys executive are too greedy & involved in sharp practices. I have learnt to lock my profit as soon as they appear and cut losses as soon as they emerge.

CG is too weak in Nigeria, those directors dont give shit about investors as such I dont advise long term. How many investors have the financial muscle to buy coys like Nestle, I rather leave long term investment for the likes of Dangote and Buffet that have the financial muscle.

Why will I wait for peanuts yearly dividend from coys when I can play short term and get the 300% of the same dividend and move excess fund to other investment class.

Rogersmith:
Benue State

Bros, if you are the rugged type, get a good fairly used Sharran for like 600k - 650k. Get it registered in one of the private parks with 50k and pick a route within Benue and drive the car yourself.

Passenger pay your money directly to you and you maintain the car yourself. You will get that your capital back within 7 months.

Houstency:
@Feelamong and other gurus in the house, I did not get certificate /investment letter from first Bank when I did NTB with them, and it's over 2months now. Is it normal or what line of actions do you suggest to correct the anomaly. Thanks in anticipation

Pls ask, they will give you evidence of your investment.

megainvest:
See kponmo for market!

http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/14471_TRANSCORP_PLC_-_PROFIT_WARNING__CORPORATE_ACTIONS_JULY_2016.pdf

I'm not surprised at all.

This is not looking good at all.

Coolcash1:
Zenith always disappointing...Though not surprise because as i have said before it Only performs when the gods come to market.

Patience my brother, what is yours must truly arrive... GTB, Zenith & Access must deliver..

Ovamboland:
Someone is loading GTB at heavy rate, what's going on?

Interim Dividend loading.....

megainvest:
FBNH 3.38
Zee 16.59

FBN should be below 3.00 before Dec.

lancee:
Sir on NSE anything can happen , I like ur analysis thou

I agree with you that anything is possible. The hard thruth is that investors has good options in this short term period.

Move your funds to Treasury Bill and earn between 12-14% for 91 days
Or
Buy stocks with interim dividend and get dividend or take the capital appreciation of =N=1 to =N=3 on these stocks.

BMZK:
I suspect the deals below prevented FHBN from flying because the insiders are always aware of the happenings on the floor.
Hence, nobody wants to buy above the cross deal price.

No sir, FBN cant fly.

Even at the height of the news of floating exchange rate by CBN, most investors are begging for the share price to move up.

Manonamission:
That's the first target. Others will follow.

Not all others...

locodemy:
i wish FBN will remain @3.50 till next week iam expecting cash to acquire the remaining units i want b4 the km10 journey begins.

Sincerely, I dont see any serious bull on FBN this year as there is no positive news that will drive the stock.
No interim dividend giving based on the 2nd qtr report to wet investor appetite. Asset quality is simply worrisome with =N=69.9b loan impairment charges with the current result. While there is an excellent improvement in their gains in FX and increase in MPR will give them improved performance, asset quality will always hinder the coy result.

danjumakolo:
This simply means CBN will take deposits from banks at 12% then give loan to banks at 16% making CBN to make a spread of +4....on the other side banks will review their lending rates higher to make up for the hight cost of funds from CBN...
This monetary tool sbud bring down the inflation rate as there will be a downtrend in liquidity.But because naija economy is witnessing stagnation and inflation at the same time,this consumer price index may not go down

We are in for a long ride in Nigeria, Banks will not give loans, civil servants are being owed salaries, manufacturing sector are facing tough days, oil and gas sector facing their own problems.
Banks will resort to their lazy ways of making money, place your excess fund into Treasury Bills, it is better for their fund to be safe rather than loosing it in the name of Non performing loans.

Nigeria need a revolution, we are moving towards it step by step.
Once people know that there is no hope again, we will pick up arms and fight for ourselves and unborn generation. Out of this chaos, a new order will emerge. Till then, the suffering and smiling continues.

FG should simply tell them to sit down in Naija, no money.

rebekah2011:
The current happenings in the economy favours companies like UCAP. The dividend yield of UCAP next year will be more than 26%. This year the stock returned like 35% dividend yield for some investors. The outlook for the company is great. I will keep buying more and only sell when I see crazy capital gains.

Dont get too emotional abt any stock on the NSE irrespective of their performance, but the qty you are comfortable with and set your profit target to exit. Anything is possible.

Thunderlicious:
you are very funny. @Coolcash has Wapco in his portfolio. E no easy to do analysis when your portfolio dey red. Imagine somebody like Locodemy typing long analysis on a stock. For where him wan get that kind motivatation with the current O and O situation? Unless him na skye beneficiary like u said

Like Fxuser says, forex losses is brutal in a slowing economy coupled with declining purchasing power of the common man. Even FG said no money for capital project. We hope for better days.

pupalanta:
Why are all these things happening in the southern part of Nigeria and mostly in christian dominated regions whyyyyyy

This is not about religion, people are hungry and cant expect them to remember religion. Some armed robbers came to my area last week, they asked those folks they visited to first prepare food for them as they are hungry.

After taking their phones laptops etc, they apologized for disturbing them and left.

Coolcash1:
I disagree with you on the highlighted statement...The point is FBNH needs to restore invetors lost confidence in its operating model and strategic direction..These would be achieved through strong risk management, effective corporate governance which protects shareholders funds from reckless financing and investment decisions and reallocation of investible funds to areas that maximizes return on share holders wealth...That is why current management through dint of perspiration must surpass its peers in the industry and take back its market leadership the bank is once known..However, i still believe the long term holding risk of the stock is still minimal compared to short term.

It is simply not a walk in the park for FBNH to restore investors confidence, have strong risk management and Corporate governance etc etc. It is simple on paper but takes time in reality and equally not funny when you have the highest exposure to Oil & Gas sector in the current economic climate, coupled with tight industry competition and a highly regulated sector.

I will only worry about long term holding if I have the fund like Dangote or Buffet to buy substantial stake. I dont have the time to wait for mgt to perspire, when I can make cool dough on some other stocks. Once I make 100k - 200k on a stock, I simply take my gains and move on.