₦airaland Forum

oduastates:
NOTHING I WANT MORE THAN FOR CRUDE OIL PRICES TO FALL MORE AND MORE .
This is the best thing to shock the country out of uselessness. And if people refuse to change , let them continue to suffer.
It will also be good for the Niger delta

At this present moment , I believe that the true value of the naira is closer to N5000 if you discount oil.
Basically means that Nigeria does not export anything , does not make anything and will forever remain dysfunctional until the bitter medicine is applied
Restricting dollars does work . It did work in 1983 .
It means that individuals and companies whose business are built on importation and dumping of basic items will suffer and possibly collapse .
It also means that potential local alternatives will grow out of the ashes .
I cannot forget how South Korea used Nigeria to experiment and dump those paper Daewoo experio cars .we allowed them . Countries come and dump in Nigeria without restrictions while they put all sorts of restrictions on Nigerian agricultural produce.

Nigerians want to buy what they cannot afford .
What has changed between 1983 and now is the taste for excessive luxury.
What has never worked in Nigeria is the devaluation.
Every devaluation in a Nigeria has always led increase in poverty while the looting elites later bring back a little bit of their looted dollars to buy government properties for cheap.
To show you how the useless Nigerian economy behaves, tomatoes , onions and beef sellers have increased their prices because of the devaluation of naira.
When exactly did dollars become the Nigerian currency.
None of the inputs into the production of these two goods has suffered a corresponding increase in price.
What you have there is an economy that simply does not work . For a few years under Obj , it felt like Nigeria was about to build a truly middle class led economy . That dream was blown away by Yar Adua and Jonathan
This is why I support the dismantling of the current system of excessive importation which I hope will be followed up by the dismantling of the informal sector as shown by the behaviour of these tomatoes seller.
This crisis remains an opportunity. Let the elites cry and starve for the dollars .
This crisis present and opportunity to change the way Nigeria works .
A Nigerian value chain can be built without much effort . If your drink factory need orange concentrate , source it locally . Mango is wasting away in Benue , tomotoes is rotting away in the north .
Talking about priorities,
Ondo was building useless conference centres when it should be building Cocoa plantations . Cross river was building Tinapa instead of palm oil , Akwa ibom was building stadium instead of pineapples and coconut , Osun building airport instead of plantain.
Do they know that they can build an entire value chain on what they have ? From chocolate to soap , cosmetics ,detergent,lubricants, medicine etc

ocelot2006:
What bloody decline? The economy kept growing at a rate of 6-7% under the GEJ watch. Even at the last days of his administration, Nigeria still maintained that growth and was projected to be one of the largest economies in the world.

Bubu on the other hand SQUANDERED that success. 2-3 months into the PMB admin, and No thanks to his lack of economic policies to guide the nation and gross incompetence, our growth rate dropped to 4%, job growth was slashed, freaking Ethiopia overtook us as choice destination for FDI, we're no longer among the top 5 fastest growing economies in Africa, the Naira's value took a nose dive, no team to drive the president's no existing economic policies. 9 months down the line, the country's in recession. Thousands of jobs have been lost with 2 million being threatened. There's massive capital flight as investors run away. The business environment is so harsh now that small business's are parking up. And there's the.budget fiasco. All these while Bubu and co are busy blaming GEJ, who btw is busy trying to.enjoy his retirement in peace.

quote author=obailala post=42950364]
Let me tell you a short story of what happened when the oil prices began to crash, just between October 2014 and May 2015 when GEJ handed over:

(1) The Naira fell from N166/167 to N220 to $1, meanwhile oil still sold at about $65/barrel as at May 2015.
http://abokifx.com/previous-rates-2/

(2) The nation's foreign reserves dropped from ~$38.5bn to $28.7billion, that's a drop of about $10billion in 7 months, with oil still selling at about $65/barrel as at May 2015.
http://www.cenbank.org/intops/Reserve.as
(3) Nigeria's GDP growth rate which was maintained at an average of 6-7% suddenly dropped to its lowest since 1999 of 2.3%.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/gdp-growth-annual

(4) Due to a severe cash crunch occasioned by fall in oil prices, the Nigerian government had to borrow about $2.4billion dollars early in 2015 to pay salaries. The FG could not also pay accumulated arrears of fuel subsidy since August 2014 to petroleum importers (this led to the fuel scarcity in May 2015 just before the handover and Lai Mohammed also blamed this owed fuel subsidy as the reason behind the fuel scarcity late last year)
http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/05/nigeria-borrows-to-pay-salaries-with-cash-crunch-worsening/
http://www.channelstv.com/2015/12/21/lai-mohammed-blames-fuel-crisis-on-past-administration/

Note that all of the above happened at a time when oil still sold above $65/barrel; today oil sells for about $30/barrel

Now I do not want to imagine the kind of economic humanitarian crisis that would have enveloped Nigeria had GEJ continued in his usual manner of dipping his hands into the forex reserves; only God saved us as a nation else we would have been standing on long queues by now to receive one cup of rice daily from W.H.O or UN outlets.


Did I just hear you say continuity of those four (4) negative events I just pointed out above?
Are you aware that the FG under Buhari has not borrowed to pay salaries? It even bailed out the states
Are you aware the FG has paid off subsidy arrears owed to oil importers even since the days of GEJ?
Are you aware the FG/CBN has been able to maintain virtually the same forex reserve amount that it inherited till date?... Unlike GEJ that crashed it by $10billion in 7 months of oil price crash?
And now all these have been done when oil sells for less than half of what it was when GEJ was handing over and you think the present government is more useless?? I challenge you to tell me that these figures and indices I have written here are wrong, kindly explain to us your 'empirical' evidence.

banio:
Why live in the past. Let's pray that Buhari performs because it's bitting hard on we fathers. I am not saying GEJ was excellent or that OBJ was a saint.

banio:
The minister of transport Amaechi was the governor that prevented Ex President Goodluck from saving much. The case went up to the supreme Court and the governor's forum won, so GEJ had to share the excess crude funds. So why blame GEJ

banio:
From your chat, the oil price didn't rise up to $30 between 1999 to 2003, that's five solid years. So why didn't the naira crumble then. Anyway my advise is that we all need to call a spade a spade.

Russia
As one of the world's largest oil producers, Russia has been a prominent victim of the plunging prices.
About half of Russia's budget revenues currently come from energy exports.
The rouble is also under pressure from economic sanctions that the West imposed on Russia for its involvement in the Ukraine conflict.
On Monday, the national currency dropped to new lows, with the exchange rate dipping to 79 roubles to the dollar and 86 roubles to the euro - something not seen since December 2014.

Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia's income from oil fell by 23% last year, highly significant in an economy where around 73% of total revenues comes from the industry.
The country announced a budget deficit nearing $100bn (£68bn).

Venezuela
Venezuela has the world's biggest known oil reserves, and oil exports account for as much as 95% of the country's revenues.
However, the huge fall in oil prices in the past 18 months has slashed revenues by 60%.
On Saturday, Venezuela's government announced a 60-day economic emergency to deal with a worsening economic crisis. The edict includes tax increases and puts emergency measures in place to pay for welfare services and food imports.
- http://www.bbc.com/news/world-35345874

ocelot2006:
The PDP left an economy still on the rise. Your Daura Bubu and the APC wrecked it totally. Go blame the later.

49cents:
My friend wake up

Politicians are the same everywhere, wake up and be wise.

Nigeria's only way out is to collapse the expensive state structure the military created and collapse them into autonomous, federating regions and see if healthy competion and use of resource control won't change this overnight

Pavore9:
They are treating a clear case of abduction so mildly!

We strongly believe that the said Miss Ese Rita Oruru has not only has
been hypnotized but also recruited as a tool in the hand of an Islamic
fanatical group in Kano State. Miss Ese Rita Oruru is only 13-years-old
and cannot give informed consent to marriage and is still held hostage.
Mr. and Mrs. Charles Oruru are petty traders who are putting all efforts
to meet the needs of their children. ”

banki:
Enough of this talk about the budget proposal!

Mistakes were made and we must get to work correct the mistakes and move on up.

Wether apc or pdp we musnt play politics with everthing

I thankGod that this is just proposed if they passed it wahala go dey!

I can imagine the nonsense that was passed in the last administration as budget! Yet they never ever achieved up to 50percent implementattion

chukwudi44:
Buhari does not have the powers to sack him else he would have done so long ago

PapaBrowne:
I am about to wail and wail really loud. My wailing is about the exchange rate. 354 Naira to the dollar.

This is terrible and has never happened with this speed ever before in this country. And the single reason for this terrible exchange rate uncertainty is Buhari's insistence that the CBN should not officially devalue the currency just to score cheap political goals.

I want to use this simple narrative to explain whats happening with our currency..and how Buhari's insistence is dealing deadly blows to the economy.The purported official exchange rate is 197 Naira to the dollar. The market rate as at yesterday was 354 Naira to the dollar.

Scenario 1
Now lets assume you are a company importing say industrial goods. So you want to restock and you need $10 million. So you apply for that amount to CBN (say in January) and you pay 1.97 billion Naira at the official exchange rate. CBN delays your approval by about a month(February), but no worries, you now have your $10 million. Typically, you would transfer your money to your supplier say in South Korea and say it takes another month to produce your order(March) and 2 months for shipping to Nigeria(May). Lets say it takes maybe 3 months to sell out your entire stock(August). Lets assume you usually mark up profits on your products by 20% after taxes et al.
So on an investment of $10 million, you would make a profit of say $2 million from January to August. At the official exchange rate that is approx 400 Million Naira in 8 months. Good money it seems yeah?

Scenario 2
You are still a company importing industrial goods. So you want to restock and you need $10 million. So you follow the same process starting in January. Apply, pay 1.97 billion Naira, you get your $10 million in February. You decide not to transfer it. Dollar is exchanging at 320 Naira in the black market. So you take $5 Million from that money and sell it to BDCs at 300 Naira. You are given 1.5 billion Naira cash instantly. In one day, you've made a whooping 500 million Naira in profits. You hoard the rest of the $5 Million overseas on the speculation that dollar would exchange for 500 Naira in the next 3 months. And when that happens, your $5 million would give you N2.5 billion cash. So in total by May/June, you would have earned 1.5 Billion +2.5 Billion= 4 billion Naira from your 1.97 billion Naira investment.

That is 2 Billion Naira returns in 5 months vs N400 million in 8 Months. And you can even make more iff you keep round tripping with the CBN.

The first and direct consequence on this is the the continual rise in the exchange rate. Now that's a problem in itself but maybe not too big of a problem because a weak Naira can actually help your products sell well overseas.

The bigger problem however in the scenario for instance, is the sudden conversion from an industrial goods importer to a Forex Trader. Imagine what would suddenly happen to all those companies who depended on the industrial goods this trader was importing to keep thier factories running. Suddenly, they start laying off staff because they can't produce and then the whole economy suffers the ripple effect.

With Buhari, our economy is in real trouble. The bigger danger is that he doesn't even appear to understand the implications of his action and the near irreversibility of a badly battered economy.

I am not here to insult the President. I don't believe in that. He is the President, so the office should at least be respected.
But something is not right and every patriotic Nigerian would do well to speak.I think we have not just an unintelligent President, but a stubborn one that completely lacks an understanding of basic economic principles and refuses to listen to even the best of his aides.
I say this because I know the likes of Fashola who understands the rudiments of basic economics would have the same understanding of the scenarios painted and the long term implications they would have on this country.

Pat Utomi has spoken. Emir Sanusi has spoken. Many others are dying to speak. I beg, if you love this country, its imperative Buhari must be told to remove his hands from monetary policy and leave it for the professionals at CBN.

anonimi:
The JOINT Federation Accounts committee is made up of the 36 states and 1 federal government, not so
Now read your post and correct yourself before someone else points out the obvious errors and fallacies contained therein.
Cheers

anonimi:
Have you asked the 36 state governors back then, including your hero- Alhaji Babatunde Raji Fashola ??

FG, States, LGs Share N568.4 Billion for Oct




Also, $1billion was proposed for distribution to complement shortfall in expected revenue. " The $1billion is a compromise by the FG over its words in September not to augment shortfalls anymore.

Responding to the presentation, the chairman of the States Commissioners of Finance and Ebonyi State Commissioner of Finance, Mr Timothy Odaah, lamented that the statutory allocation was getting smaller and smaller. "It appears this is the worst in terms of returns. This is the least in allocations as far as this year is concerned. We are mourning the dearth of funds and this is a wakeup call for states and local governments to buoy up their internally generated revenue."

While appreciating the "magnanimity" of President Goodluck Jonathan to approve the $1billion from the excess crude account and to be shared among the federal, state and local governments, Odaah expressed disappointment with the returns made by the NNPC.

He said that the states had requested for $2bn to complement for the shortfall in revenue but got only $1billion. In September, Odaah and fellow commissioners had walked out of the Accountant General of the Federation (AGF) when the federal government said that the framework of the 2013 budget was no longer realistic and it won't augment shortfall in revenue. Odaah raised issues with the statutory allocations of previous months.

More from: http://allafrica.com/stories/201311150323.html

obailala:
Let me tell you a short story of what happened when the oil prices began to crash, just between October 2014 and May 2015 when GEJ handed over:

(1) The Naira fell from N166/167 to N220 to $1, meanwhile oil still sold at about $65/barrel as at May 2015.
http://abokifx.com/previous-rates-2/

(2) The nation's foreign reserves dropped from ~$38.5bn to $28.7billion, that's a drop of about $10billion in 7 months, with oil still selling at about $65/barrel as at May 2015.
http://www.cenbank.org/intops/Reserve.asp

(3) Nigeria's GDP growth rate which was maintained at an average of 6-7% suddenly dropped to its lowest since 1999 of 2.3%.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/gdp-growth-annual

(4) Due to a severe cash crunch occasioned by fall in oil prices, the Nigerian government had to borrow about $2.4billion dollars early in 2015 to pay salaries. The FG could not also pay accumulated arrears of fuel subsidy since August 2014 to petroleum importers (this led to the fuel scarcity in May 2015 just before the handover and Lai Mohammed also blamed this owed fuel subsidy as the reason behind the fuel scarcity late last year)
http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/05/nigeria-borrows-to-pay-salaries-with-cash-crunch-worsening/
http://www.channelstv.com/2015/12/21/lai-mohammed-blames-fuel-crisis-on-past-administration/

Note that all of the above happened at a time when oil still sold above $65/barrel; today oil sells for about $30/barrel

Now I do not want to imagine the kind of economic humanitarian crisis that would have enveloped Nigeria had GEJ continued in his usual manner of dipping his hands into the forex reserves; only God saved us as a nation else we would have been standing on long queues by now to receive one cup of rice daily from W.H.O or UN outlets.


Did I just hear you say continuity of those four (4) negative events I just pointed out above?
Are you aware that the FG under Buhari has not borrowed to pay salaries? It even bailed out the states
Are you aware the FG has paid off subsidy arrears owed to oil importers even since the days of GEJ?
Are you aware the FG/CBN has been able to maintain virtually the same forex reserve amount that it inherited till date?... Unlike GEJ that crashed it by $10billion in 7 months of oil price crash?
And now all these have been done when oil sells for less than half of what it was when GEJ was handing over and you think the present government is more useless?? I challenge you to tell me that these figures and indices I have written here are wrong, kindly explain to us your 'empirical' evidence.

jokinexcel:
We are not claiming all deltans are igbos, we are only claiming our blood brothers in delta state. (The igbo speaking deltans), we are not leaving without them. The same applies to igbos in Rivers and Edo state respectively. We not claiming the whole of Rivers state or Edo state. But we can't leave one inch of Biafra /igbo speaking fellow behind

L

searay:
Supreme Court Explains Why They Upheld Governor Udom’s Electionby Sitippe Akwa Ibom 15/02/2016 | 1:24 0 Posted in AkwaIbom News
Facebook

In a lead judgment delivered by Justice Centus Nwaeze and unanimously supported by the 7-man panel, the courts said that the petitioner made allegations of criminal acts but could not prove it beyond reasonable doubt.
It added that the lower court curiously used a newspaper report to decide on criminal acts misconceiving the grounds of the appeal of the APC and its candidate.
According to him, the law is settled that disenfranchisement must be proved polling unit by polling unit.
The court also held that there was a wrong reliance on the petitioner witness number 48 by the lower court to decide that there was disenfranchisement of voters in 18 of the 32 local governments in Akwa Ibom State, even though the said witness admitted that he was not at his polling unit at the time of the polls.
The court also held that the over generalization that there was anarchy in Akwa Ibom State during the polls was wrong because the Nigerian Police report of the polls largely contradicts that of the witnesses which were relied upon by the court.
Justice Centus Nwaeze held that the two lower courts metamorphosed into an inquisitor forum shopping for schemishes even though there was no demonstration in court.
The apex court held that the judgment by the tribunal and the appellate courts were not consistent with the law and are accordingly set aside.

Source

Hizzy:
my brother millions of biafrans have been waiting for dis opportunity

Ddaji:
Are you underrating Ipob,remember we are technology gate of Nigeria.We have enough weapons to crush rag tag Buhari's troops.

Nbote:
D simple question is does the Electoral Act recognise the use of the card readers? ?? If not den it's an opportunity to amend it so INEC can get to work and get it right once and for all. Since elections still went on even when the card readers failed during the elections, d card readers cannot b said to b solely relevant then.

oduastates:
Excess crude account : 22 billion us

Fg: State = 55:45

Fg's share was at least 12 billion.
What exactly did Jonathan spend 12 billion on within a year?

specco:
I advice that PMB should just eat the humble pie and recall Ngozi Okonjo Iweala. I have yhis gut feeling that she can do something. Under her watch things weren't this bad. We should not throw away the bath water with the baby. In Ben Bruce voice...just wana make common sense.

IkennaNweke:
he possibility of the Nigerian economy plunging into recession in 2016 is not in doubt, going by the poor economic policy direction of President Muhammadu Buhari. Professor Pat Utomi has maintained.



As crude oil prices dive lower, threatening to dip below $30 a barrel for the first time since the financial crisis of 2008, commodity economies around the world are catching a cold.



The collapse of oil price is already taking its toll on the Nigerian economy. As it stands, there is no light at the end of the tunnel yet. Nigeria’s situation is further worsened by the current government’s delay in enacting sound fiscal and monetary policies.



Investors across the world are losing their investments in stock and property owners are also suffering losses as a result of depreciation in currencies.



The Naira is currently under intense pressure, the situation has depleted Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves, with policy makers now left with a difficult decision to make: either allow the currency to move in a wider range against the dollar or raise interest rates.



However, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, Godwin Emefiele has promised to stabilize the Naira without devaluing the currency.



President Muhammadu Buhari has also backed the CBN’s monetary policies, which have raised questions about its sustainability.



Two former Central bank governors, have disapproved the current policies initiated under Buhari, aimed at amelioration the situation. They have both called for more flexibility in the management of the country’s currency.

tripplephi:
MY QUESTION IS THIS

the love shown on VALENTINE'S DAY is it the same LOVE that made JESUS DIE ON THE CROSS FOR US?

if you hypocritically say yes, THEN WHY IS VALENTINE NOT CELEBRATED ON EASTER OR CHRISTMAS....... lets not fool ourselves VALENTINE IS JUST A DAY THE WORLD CHOSE TO CELEBRATE IMMORAL LOVE .... a day simply for SENSUAL LUST AND SEX.

THE CURSE WORKS NATURALLY, YOUR PASTOR DIDNT NEED TO WASTE HIS TIME.

TimothyNkenu:
So they said that they found a bucket of cash in Amosu's home.

I decided to do a Google Reverse Image Search and guess where that same bucket was?

It was with a farmer that found it and it belonged to Pablo Escobar!

What a coincidence!

luvinhubby:
We warned them but they refused.

Nigeria is on steady all round retrogression, Naira is 350 - $1, federal & state govts are owing backlog of salariea, 'technically defeated' terrorists killing tens of Nigerians daily & every constructive criticism is met with chants of 'ipod or wailers' from their supporters.

FlyboyZee:
Can you please read the topic again? To see if it was referring to either GEJ or Akpabio?

Thank me later...

As a Petroleum Minister as far back as 1978, he had huge interests in foreign Hospitals, so why did the APC condemned the likes of Diezani Madueke and Senator Akpabio for showing interest in London Clinics in 2016?

johnydon22:
[b] I am not paid to teach every di_ck and harry who choose to block their wits with nonsensical religious books science.

Let me help you well with a source from google

" In physics, gravitational waves are ripples in the curvature of spacetime which
propagate as waves, travelling outward from the source.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave "

Now let this be the day you learn something new. Orbits are as a result in the distortion of space/time by mass of an object in relation to an even bigger body of mass.

Gravitational waves are ripples of space/time distortion travelling outward from the source of distortion basically blackholes.

Orbits don't travel in wave-like patterns outwardly distorting the fabrics of space/time with the speed of light.

You probably saw "curvature" of space/time and got excited..

Now next time you choose to dabble in such simpleton-like ideas make sure you read what your google source said well before rushing off to comment.

Desperation to defend this drunk interpretation from an even drunker book can only make you look daft..
[/b]