₦airaland Forum

chai u sure say e don near wave 5,how many days remain before en enter inside finish?make water no carry Janet oo.[/quote]The analysis is done on weekly basis. The one posted is for current week. By next week some of the classification will change again. Sometimes, the results do baffle me too. But the chart (with our small fundamentals behind it) is like "the gods speaking" we have no option but to obey. For example, I am currently doing the calculation in my head, can't just I buy CCNN, I know the 2nd quarter result will look good or Nigeria Breweries when it was still in the NGN70 region, but alas by now, I would have been in more pain.

We need to develop the spirit of patience these days.

AVOID ANYTHING IN STAGE 4

STAGE 4 IS AVOID (what I mean in the post is called wave 5, substitute wave 5 for stage 4 in the post referred to, wave analysis is like another background analysis supporting the stage analysis). However, if you spot a wave 5 reversal in any of the stages, you can buy.

Following the rules strictly according to Stan stages 1, 3, and 4 are no buy zone. However, looking at Nigeria avoiding stages these 3 stages mean you will be out of the market for so long.

Therefore, we have modified as avoid stage 4 as much as possible. But you can look for opportunities in stages 1 and 3 as they are close to stage 2 (if there is probability of a reversal to the bullish side plus some good fundamentals), but you know risk is high and may have to rely on your pain tolerant level to get out befor too much damage is done to your account/emotion.

The fact that you must have some basic knowledge of fundamental analysis is taken for granted here.

Thanking all for the comments, the errors noted will be corrected as I will be posting the public version with all my posts as much as possible.

NIGERIA STOCK MARKET GENERAL COMMENT /MSCI POSITION (NSE STOCK MARKET WEATHER REPORT) - FOR 13 JUNE 2019

Not much to talk about today, only that market as now become riskier we has to thin down whatever we need to buy. MSCI activities minimal in line with current move bought Dangcem, Stanbic and sold Guinness.

Too much fearful new all over. To make profit in this market we need to improve on our game. Trend on weekly, monthly and daily are all pointing down. Hope is not lost, all we have to do is control our emotions. Let us forget buying whatever is going down, except you know where the turning point is likely to be. For any stage a stock is, if you get into it at stage 4, at least probability of success will be over 80%.


Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

aremso:
do they sell at loss too?

This is a big question to answer. I have gone through so many documents unfortunately every trader/investor is open to sell at a loss sometimes. There is no perfect system that will not expose you to some losses once in a while. This is the reality of investing.

DID YOU CHECK THE MSCI PORTFOLIO MOVEMENT ON MORNINGSTAR TODAY 11 JUNE 2019

http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=NGE&region=usa&culture=en-US

this is what it look like:

COMMENT ON CLOSING FIGURES FOR JUNE 11 2019

The quality of the losers is indirectly telling us, that on Thursday we will likely be resuming work for another bearish day. a pathetic situation for participants in the market?

We still need to curb our emotion to pick bottoms. The market is looking for money to swallow

For someone that is addicted to the market and is still tempted to buy (if you can stay on the sideline for now it is better), just cast your net to catch the lowest price possible like around NGN129 for MTN, just as indicated in out stage analysis sheet for the week, it will now be posted in the forun everyday. For me I will continue to put in my orders at NGN0.42 for Jaiz Bank, whether it hits or not I don't care, Wema is also on my waiting list at NGN0.58. With these 3 I am okay for now.


Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 11 JUNE 2019

MSCI on 10 June bought many stock, sold some Guinness. likely the transactions were done around last week but reported yesterday. No problem, the movement can be used to position ourselves for the 2nd Qtr earnings release.

MSCI coming to the market may stem the tide of the bears. But, we should still be on our guards, the market is still in stage 1, even if the bull shows up now, it will be temporary.

A joke just crossed my mind, now that MSCI is bailing out the market from the bears (nobody is talking), I am sure that very soon someone will wake up from somewhere one day, when MSCI will be making money from the market (taking the money out of Nigeria) and asked that MSCI should come and tell us where they got their money from, that EFCC should probe the fund (probably thinking MSCI is physically in Nigeria, not knowing that every Investment decision for MSCI is taken somewhere in New York!!!)

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

THE STOCK MARKET OF 2019 IS DIFFERENT FROM THAT OF 2000 AND EARLIER

I am sure many of us will be wondering why is so difficult to make money in the market these days.

The fact is that, this is not a time for buy and hold investors. The earlier we get that idea out of our mind the better.

Can you imagine that I am waiting to buy Jaiz bank around NGN0.42 to 0.44, I have already made up my mind to get out at about NGN0.60 when most people are about to start buying.

For these current days we have to be more nimble in the market and get the right edge (edge can be specific knowledge both fundamentals, technical, mathematical etc). Buying when prices are falling may be buying into STAGE 4; we all know what will happen here. Welcome to the new reality of the market?

Caution: This information is for educational purpose only.

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 10 JUNE 2019

MSCI on 7 June sold Guinness & Unilever. Market is in stage 1, will likely be ranging.

Chart is indicating a high probability of Monday being a down day.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 7 JUNE 2019

Temporarily, the momentum of the bearish trend is reducing. We are in stage 1 at the moment, but not in a buying zone. We continue to wait on the sideline, but ready to pounce on good opportunities with the 2nd Qtr results in view. [b]MSCI stopped selling, no mvementy in portfolio for yesterday.[/b]Sorry for our report coming very late today.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 06 JUNE 2019

Oando is going to take the shine off the market. MSCI still selling, has sold 8.4m units of OANDO since onset of SEC crises.

We should expect the bearish trend to continue till the end of the week. Temporarily, for the week we will put any buying on hold.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

STOCK MARKET UPDATE 4 JUNE 2019

On 3 June 2019, MSCI continues with more selling while buying only Dangote cement. Oando was among those sold.

Get the MSCI portfolio for the day here: [url]http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=NGE [/url]

You will see our yesterday's figure there. You get the latest figures around 1pm to see how many units of Oando were sold.

Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 3 JUNE 2019

Caution is the watchword for the new week beginning 3 June 2019. It supposed to be a week of celebration but the Oando issue, falling oil price & MSCI on the selling side likely to usher in the bear to the next level in an already tense market!!!

I was very happy when I saw the post of someone selling one stock at stage 3 1/2 (three and half), that is a superlative performance. It means we are catching the spirit of this stage analysis thing. for this reason I am posting the stage analysis for major equities. For some of the stages you may dispute, especially on stage 3 and one; it is okay, just go back to Stan Weinstein's book and check again ( if your are sure you are right okay). Stan himself pointed out that they can be differences in some instances, but are you sure you are doing it the right way?

Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 31 MAY 2019
MSCI Nigeria on 30 May 2019 bought/sold a number of equities, Zenith was on sell side while UBA and Dangote were among the additions. MSCI likely to continue with selling as oil swings to a recent low.

This is season where buy and hold can be dangerous. We have to start getting accustomed to being satisfied with gains from 20% upwards while limiting our loses (THIS IS NIGERIA OR BETTER STILL AFRICA IN GENERAL, IT IS A RISKY PLACE).

Reading ordinary news or buying when prices are falling will be a prescription for disaster. You have to learn how to read the market action in such a way that is not known to the general public (word of wisdom).

Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 30 MAY 2019
MSCI on 29 May continue with the selling, but bought #Dangote Cement. Zenith/NBL were hit heavily by the selling. This is a warning that we must still be on the defensive side.

Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 27 MAY 2019

MSCI on 24 May continued with heavy selling, but still bought Dangcem/Nestle. Oil is shaky, MTN have started falling bears likely to show up.
Caution: This is for information purpose only.

Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 24 MAY 2019
MSCI seems not to be happy with Nigeria, wave of heavy selling.

This selling may continue if other equities are stagnant and fails to join the MTN upward trend. Also, others not going up may equally drag MTN down except some of the foreign funds start buying MTN Nigeria?

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

HURRAY NSE ALL SHARE INDEX NOW IN THE POSITIVE 0.15%

The NSE All Share Index made it to the positive zone this year!!!

What a fantastic performance by the NSE courtesy of MTN.

This new level is going to put a lot of funds, with anything to do with Nigeria under extreme pressure. Thus, whether you want it or not if you want your NAV to improve you must have MTN in your portfolio Case Closed. Therefore, do not expect any big fall in MTN share price, at least for the short to medium term.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.
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DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 23 MAY 2019

MSCI fired some selling shorts, bought Dangote Cement while selling some other equities.

Market likely to be shaky today.

Government should stop playing politics with MTN listing, let the shareholders decide what quantities to sell. If there is IPO other interests will get their own share.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 22 MAY 2019

MSCI bought small quantity of Stanbic. MTN attracted much money into the market, with time the money will flow to other equities to enjoy the bull party.

MPC maintained the old rates. We will see more players now entering the market with full force.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

TARGET TECHNICAL FUNDAMENTALS CORNER- 2ND QUARTER 2019 EXPECTED RESULTS

I continue with what I posted yesterday. I am not be in hurry to buy so many equities, that I know will not do well in the 2nd quarter of 2019 or 2019 in general.

This idea has made me to concentrate on just some few equities. For example, I will not be buying Transcorp aggressively at the moment as the business seems not be as profitable as it was in the previous accounting year!!! Probably in the 3rd quarter things may get better. Somebody may ask, what of if the company performs better than my expectation. Fine, at that point I will then start looking at the company, the price is not likely to double in a few days. But if I buy at the wrong time, 20% loss can hit may account in a matter of 2 weeks!!!

Below, is some extract from our fundamentals corner.


Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 21 MAY 2019
Market may lose some momentum soon as MTN volume yesterday was very high.
We are waiting for the 2nd qtr results. Where do we position ourselves to make money?

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

RabbiDoracle:
Stop reading a report with a bottle of 33 on one hand!

43,792 you see is for 6 months and not 3 months. That was the half year result for 2018. To get the Q2 2018, just subtract Q1 2018( i.e N23b) from the N43.793b. This should give you around N20b as the second quarter 2018 PAT

[b]UBA PROFIT PROJECTION FOR 2ND QTR 2019[/b]- FOLLOW UP

Thanks for the observation. I have checked the report again, you were actually right.

I acknowledged the error.

Latter today, I will post more projections from the report. I am sure this error is just an exception.

Once again, I say thanks for your observation.

onegentleguy:
What an analysis !!
U should get a presidential handshake for this one.

My dear, any Jack will know that UBA's Q1 2019 financial which saw both a YoY and QoQ growth over its previous yr figures, shows that the bank is very much in line to not only equal those figures, but add an appreciable premium to it !!
By extrapolation, growth and earnings trajactory for 2019 is already at a near 22%(0.22x) pace ahead that of 2018 !!
...with the probability of exceeding that pace solidly tilted on the side of 1 than zero, when u consider that the bank delivered great margins accross all key drivable revenue and earnings line, on the back of a better than expected return accross their African foot print/channels.

Unless Unity bank was actually what u intended to post about, I'll suggest u go and study UBA's Q1 financials again.

Cheers.

Thanks.

The 43,792 was for 2nd Qtr 2018, only 3 months. You need to go and get the figures for 1st Quarter 2018, another 3 months and then add the 2 together. I have taken short cut as I was looking at the full analysis. Thus UBA will need to make about 38,863 to meet the 2018 half year figure.

PAYING THE CORRECT PRICE FOR A STOCK- TODAY'S EXAMPLE UBA

It seems some people have idea of what will likely happen in the next 2/3 months time, while others just look at what is happening now.

Our forecast has given indication on what some equities will do in quarter 2 of this year. Sometimes before, we have seen what is happening in the Flour Milling, Pharmaceutical industry and Breweries sector they are experiencing some specific sector related issues.

Forecast of 2nd quarter results for some companies will likely be negative, except magic happens we need to avoid putting our money in such equities. No wonder UBA and FBNH said they will try to improve on their result immediately the 2018 year end results were released, nobody tell them the result was bad!!!, did you?. If you are not a very rich person or just a casual investor why will you not wait this this improvement is seen. Have you not lost enough money in the past? If I have seen a services that will not make me to be sitting on the 30 or 40% losses I am sitting on now, I would have been better off.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.
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DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 20 MAY 2019
Another interesting week with good expectations from the market.
MSCI is back, MTN is in, Oil is up automatically market must be up.

Our focus is on 2nd qtr 2019. Where can you position yourself for the money? we were looking at the forecast for 2nd quarter results we expect for 2019. Many interesting things showed up like; I don't know how Access bank can fail to deliver a spectacular result for the 2nd quarter of 2019, if it fails to do then it will be the disappointment of the decade. Also, despite the risk in Oando, the stock keeps coming up as likely to do well for the 2nd quarter of 2019.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 17 MAY 2019

MTN did as expected, sending the bears out. We expect the yellow party to continue. MSCI showed up committing $91,000 to the market.

The key level for the all share index for today is 28,586.80. Once the index closes above this level, the party will continue.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 16 MAY 2019

MSCI still did nothing, let us see if MTN will drag it out, today will be a game changer for the market, charts can take back seat for today, we are likely to have bullish season till end of the week.

Equally we are likely to see flock of new people into this market.

Want to profit from stock market!!! Continue reading my on Nairaland forum!!!

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 14 MAY 2019

MSCI still had clean slate for 13 May. The stage 4 of the market is a falling one that is looking for support. Stay out of the market or buy only stock in strong sectors with RSI better than that of the general market.

Equally we are to avoid equities that are in stage 4. If you mistakenly buy a stock in stage 4 as an investor and you continue to double down, it can be a certificate for bankruptcy/heart attack. As an investor you are better off buying the immediate breakout from stage one moving to stage 2.

You can get our report to know the strategy to adopt in each stages of the market. So many issues are involved to apply this strategy. Have you notice that stage 3 can move to stage 4 or even become another stage 1?.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 13 MAY 2019

MSCI Nigeria on 10 May 2019 maintained a clean slate. Trend of the market still down.

I just observed that there may be another version of looking at the market which would have prevent many of us from jumping to the market at the wrong time. Adding this “Trend Life Cycle” to our stock selection idea will definitely do us good.

For example Caverton is currently in stage 3 (likely to move to stage 4). For Fidelity, it is definitely in stage 1, meaning there is hope.
We will continue from here tomorrow.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (^{https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget}[url][/url]) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 10 MAY 2019
MSCI on 9 May continues with buying some units of sterling bank. Stability of Oil Price and Proposed MTN listing will continue to direct attention to Nigeria for now.

You can get our stock picks and more on our twitter page. [b]Getting FCMB at NGN1.80 [/b]will be a good deal.

Waiting for the right moment to strike in the market can be good. We are happy even if we are not getting any payment for these postings, the fact that a lot of people have been protected from loses is our happiness. If you are not making losses profit will definitely come.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

IMPROVEMENT IN VALUE OF EQUITY TRADED TODAY

I AM HAPPY TO SEE THE VALUE TRADED TODAY (N3,241,548,096.73). IT WAS AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THAT OF YESTERDAY.

OUR SIT ON THE FENCE ORDER SEEMS TO BE WORKING!!!!

THESE DAYS I HAVE LEARNT TO SOME EXTENT TO STAY OUT OF THE MARKET WHEN THINGS ARE TOO DULL. ALTHOUGH NOT YET PERFECT.