₦airaland Forum

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 10 JULY 2019

The bull is gradually appearing on the scene, close above 29000 will make things look better. Looking forward to another bullish day today.

Okay, let us have a snippet of some results forecast 2nd quarter result from our fundamental corner!!!

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget)

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 9 JULY 2019

MSCI Nigeria on 08 July 2019 did not record any transaction. With MSCI not selling, the bearish run may cease.

Stage is getting set for the earnings season. We should position in good equities, although there will be a lot of false moves from equities with bad fundamentals which we have to avoid.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget)

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 8 JULY 2019

MSCI Nigeria on 05 July 2019 did not record any transaction.

This week the earnings play is expected to start heating up. Therefore, at least a small bullish move is expected for the week.


Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget)

It's laughable if not with deceive intent, what makes you think so? Maybe you are just assuming. My questions to you are these.
1. What makes you think such?
2. Did both have bad result in 2018 or 2019 q1 ?
3. Have you seen their 2019 q2 result, if yes do they perform positively or negatively?
4. What happen to unity, wema, Polaris , Sterling, Jaiz [/b]etc.?[/quote]Please let us note that [b]Jaiz is not a affected by the regulation for the normal banks. It operates in the financial sector where the required capital is currently lower than NGN25billion

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 5 JULY 2019

MSCI Nigeria on 04 July 2019 did not record any transaction as the day was a public holiday in USA. By the close of today we will know the movement in the portfolio.

Market (Allshare Index) this week is likely to close lower than last week figures, as this morning loss for the week is 2.24% . We should keep our emotions under control, only few stocks will release positive earnings. Therefore, we should be selective in our selection of equities to buy.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget)

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 4 JULY 2019

Market is still looking for support. All indication is telling us to still be very selective as many equities are indicating minimal future upward movement. Support at 28854.05 is still okay.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget)

Mcy56:
Thanks for the info. That spreadsheet could be arranged to occupy smaller space though. It looks scattered.

Thanks for the observation. I applied local standard. But I have upgraded it.

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 3 JULY 2019

MSCI Nigeria on 02 July 2019 sold Dangote Sugar and FCMB.

Market is still risky let us still apply caution.

We need to apply additional criteria, that our proposed company we want to invest in is applying International Standard (this is not in terms of the degrees or Ph.Ds. acquired by the Management/Directors). I want to be blunt here, one of the criteria is that there must be a major Foreign shareholder (preferable a Colonial Power like likes European/South Africa/ American, forget Asians or Latin America, they were also Colonized) that is exercising some form of control on the organisation, such that the company reports to a Head Office Outside Nigeria.

Call the above Colonial mentality, but to protect your money and have rest of mind, we should not entrust our money to a management that will run away/share our money among themselves while leaving the shareholders poor.

My example is the year ended report (Dec 2018) for NPF Micro Finance bank, somebody embezzled money that threw the company to a loss positions (in a Police company, reporting to CBN, and I am sure EFCC is close to this company). Then the company want to do a right issue, but I will call it a wrong issue so that there will be bigger money for somebody to embezzle in the future [/b]Thank God for a forum like this, I am sure many of us will not partake in [b]the proposed "wrong issue"

More details of the criteria will be for our subscribers in subsequent reports.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget)

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 2 JULY 2019


MSCI Nigeria on 01 July 2019 did some reduced selling. We are still looking.

The stage analysis for the week has now been updated for those marked in yellow. It is okay for usage the 2 days lateness has no big effect.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 1 JULY 2019

MSCI sold heavily on Friday 28 June 2019. But, the fear in the market can be calmed down if the Brent Crude price stabilizes. A time to be exercise caution, big bullish move in the market is not expected.

Results released over the weekend were not encouraging.

For our stage analysis, we still continue with the one for last week.

We will update later this week.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 28 JUNE 2019

MSCI Nigeria on 27 continues with selling. One is getting worried with the Fund’s continued selling, for this market to make any meaningful move, buying by the likes of MSCI is essential.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 27 JUNE 2019

MSCI sold across the sectors.

Market is still dull. We have no option but to use this waiting period to continue to perfect our strategies.

Stop loss is very important, to prevent us from losing substantial percentage of our investment in a particular stock. Especially, in this era of increased uncertainty. We need to just limit our losses, if we fail to, the market will do it for us, and it is just a matter of time.

Let us imagine that I have bought Diamond bank during the bull market for NGN5.00 and I still want to hold on, I am sure that the Access Bank acquisition of the bank at about NGN3.00 (not exact price) would have stopped me out automatically. Let us reflect on this.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 26 JUNE 2019

MSCI Nigeria on 25 June sold across sectors.

Nothing enthusiastic about this market. We need to stick to our plan.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 25 JUNE 2019

MSCI Nigeria on 24 June sold only 45,500 units of Guinness.

Nothing much. Too much risk in the air. Need to reduce our exposure to the market.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 24 JUNE 2019

MSCI Nigeria on 21 sold some quantities of Guinness as usual.

Looking at the parameters for the close of market last week. This week is expected to be a better week in terms of market performance.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

MARKET UPDATE FOR CLOSE OF THE WEEK 21 JUNE 2019

Allshare Index loss for the week: -0.65%, cumulative loss for 2019: -5.02%

Allshare Index loss for last week: -1.27%, cumulative loss for 2019: -4.40%

Loss for this week lesser than that of last week.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

Sir,
Please how do you gentlemen estimate the beta of a firm to know if it's is high or low. Am currently reading a book on investment valuation by damodaran which he talks about beta, bit I don't seem to understand it. Please can you help me out. Thanks.[/quote]Fantastic question. This is the type of issue we should be discussing in this forum. Simply, beta of a stock is the volatility of a stock in comparison with a base, usually the index for that particular stock or the general index.

A stock that matches the index, ie, goes high as the index goes up is said to have a high beta. In terms of risk and profitability, high beta stocks are better. This if the index is rising up a high better stock will rise, where a stock has beta greater than one then the stock has high beta. Thus for a stock with beta greater than one, there is the probability of the stock rising higher than the index when the index is rising. Equally when the index is falling, the high beta stock may likely fall faster than the index. For example the beta for GTB is currently 1.045, it is not a static figure it can change from time to time.

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 21 JUNE 2019


MSCI Nigeria on 20 June sold 17,482units of Guinness, buying Guinness at this moment can be dangerous.

The market is at an inflection point for now. Brent crude is back to the USD64 level, which is like our minimum benchmark that will attract the foreign funds to Nigeria equities. We expect the earnings season bulls to start taking position by now.

Note that our stage analysis sheet is only updated once a week, on Monday. It will then serve as our map of the week for the market. Monday 24 June another fresh one will be out.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 20 JUNE 2019

MSCI Nigeria on 19 June sold 64,618 units of Guinness.

There is turbulence in the market Another good time just to stay and watch on the sideline. This week is already a losing week.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 19 JUNE 2019

MSCI Nigeria on 18 June had no transaction.

Index still closed lower yesterday. At the moment the market is still in a downtrend. we need to exercise caution.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 18 JUNE 2019

MSCI Nigeria on 17 June sold only Guinness.

Market is at the edge of stage 1, about to fall into stage 4, however considering the earnings season and the chart for the 2 major index determinants showing a late rally from support. Today we still look forward to a positive/range movement in the market.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 17-JUNE 2019

MSCI Nigeria on 14 June 2019 bought Dangcem, Stabic and sold Guinness. Definitely selling from fund has reduced. This will likely pave way for some positive movement in the market.

Between the next 3 weeks a lot of the retail investors are going to enter the wrong stock in anticipation of earnings and they will get burnt badly. Prices of some bad stock will temporarily go up and once the uninformed traders are in (downtrend will start). I believe many people here are a little bit on the informed side

This week is likely to bullish, but I do not see a strong bull.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

DAILY STOCK MARKET UPDATE AS AT 14 JUNE 2019- CLOSE OF THE DAY

Another bearish week, loss for the week is 1.23%, cumulative movement for[b] 2019 is a negative 4.40%.[/b]

Next week is likely to be better with selling gradually drying up, the bearish momentum is reducing.

Nonetheless, we should not expect big moves and the earning season will favor very few companies. Thus, we have to be very selective.

By Monday the stage analysis chart will be updated with the one for the general public posted in the forum as usual.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 14 JUNE 2019

MSCI reported no movement in portfolio for 13 June 2019.

Market still down at stage 1, both short and long timeframe are down. Still a time to be patient and wait for the few opportunities that will show up. Support still fairly out of sight at around 28,854.05

We continue with our stage analysis. What should be noted is that identifying the stage is one of the steps to know what to buy or sell. Final decision is made after considering some other criteria like fundamentals, chart patterns, issues of impact that may derail our fundamentals/technical analysis etc.

However on the whole the stage analysis can serve as our initial filter (for example, I want to run away from stage 4 till I see "blood in the street or free money lying on the ground kind of situation).

On the whole I will say our forum is improving looking at the genuine observations/criticism people has made without using any abusive language, this is great and will be a further encouragement for all of us to contribute our quota in those areas we have an edge. Let us keep this up, to encourage people to come up with more ideas that can help us make profit in this though market.

You can see the last week full stage analysis postage on our twitter page around Friday last week. Once a while we will post everything on the twitter page. looking at just one part like the stage analysis alone is like half knowledge (very dangerous), the critical part is the remarks/technical analysis part.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

chai u sure say e don near wave 5,how many days remain before en enter inside finish?make water no carry Janet oo.[/quote]The analysis is done on weekly basis. The one posted is for current week. By next week some of the classification will change again. Sometimes, the results do baffle me too. But the chart (with our small fundamentals behind it) is like "the gods speaking" we have no option but to obey. For example, I am currently doing the calculation in my head, can't just I buy CCNN, I know the 2nd quarter result will look good or Nigeria Breweries when it was still in the NGN70 region, but alas by now, I would have been in more pain.

We need to develop the spirit of patience these days.

AVOID ANYTHING IN STAGE 4

STAGE 4 IS AVOID (what I mean in the post is called wave 5, substitute wave 5 for stage 4 in the post referred to, wave analysis is like another background analysis supporting the stage analysis). However, if you spot a wave 5 reversal in any of the stages, you can buy.

Following the rules strictly according to Stan stages 1, 3, and 4 are no buy zone. However, looking at Nigeria avoiding stages these 3 stages mean you will be out of the market for so long.

Therefore, we have modified as avoid stage 4 as much as possible. But you can look for opportunities in stages 1 and 3 as they are close to stage 2 (if there is probability of a reversal to the bullish side plus some good fundamentals), but you know risk is high and may have to rely on your pain tolerant level to get out befor too much damage is done to your account/emotion.

The fact that you must have some basic knowledge of fundamental analysis is taken for granted here.

Thanking all for the comments, the errors noted will be corrected as I will be posting the public version with all my posts as much as possible.

NIGERIA STOCK MARKET GENERAL COMMENT /MSCI POSITION (NSE STOCK MARKET WEATHER REPORT) - FOR 13 JUNE 2019

Not much to talk about today, only that market as now become riskier we has to thin down whatever we need to buy. MSCI activities minimal in line with current move bought Dangcem, Stanbic and sold Guinness.

Too much fearful new all over. To make profit in this market we need to improve on our game. Trend on weekly, monthly and daily are all pointing down. Hope is not lost, all we have to do is control our emotions. Let us forget buying whatever is going down, except you know where the turning point is likely to be. For any stage a stock is, if you get into it at stage 4, at least probability of success will be over 80%.


Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

aremso:
do they sell at loss too?

This is a big question to answer. I have gone through so many documents unfortunately every trader/investor is open to sell at a loss sometimes. There is no perfect system that will not expose you to some losses once in a while. This is the reality of investing.

DID YOU CHECK THE MSCI PORTFOLIO MOVEMENT ON MORNINGSTAR TODAY 11 JUNE 2019

http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=NGE&region=usa&culture=en-US

this is what it look like:

COMMENT ON CLOSING FIGURES FOR JUNE 11 2019

The quality of the losers is indirectly telling us, that on Thursday we will likely be resuming work for another bearish day. a pathetic situation for participants in the market?

We still need to curb our emotion to pick bottoms. The market is looking for money to swallow

For someone that is addicted to the market and is still tempted to buy (if you can stay on the sideline for now it is better), just cast your net to catch the lowest price possible like around NGN129 for MTN, just as indicated in out stage analysis sheet for the week, it will now be posted in the forun everyday. For me I will continue to put in my orders at NGN0.42 for Jaiz Bank, whether it hits or not I don't care, Wema is also on my waiting list at NGN0.58. With these 3 I am okay for now.


Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 11 JUNE 2019

MSCI on 10 June bought many stock, sold some Guinness. likely the transactions were done around last week but reported yesterday. No problem, the movement can be used to position ourselves for the 2nd Qtr earnings release.

MSCI coming to the market may stem the tide of the bears. But, we should still be on our guards, the market is still in stage 1, even if the bull shows up now, it will be temporary.

A joke just crossed my mind, now that MSCI is bailing out the market from the bears (nobody is talking), I am sure that very soon someone will wake up from somewhere one day, when MSCI will be making money from the market (taking the money out of Nigeria) and asked that MSCI should come and tell us where they got their money from, that EFCC should probe the fund (probably thinking MSCI is physically in Nigeria, not knowing that every Investment decision for MSCI is taken somewhere in New York!!!)

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis (https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget) and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

THE STOCK MARKET OF 2019 IS DIFFERENT FROM THAT OF 2000 AND EARLIER

I am sure many of us will be wondering why is so difficult to make money in the market these days.

The fact is that, this is not a time for buy and hold investors. The earlier we get that idea out of our mind the better.

Can you imagine that I am waiting to buy Jaiz bank around NGN0.42 to 0.44, I have already made up my mind to get out at about NGN0.60 when most people are about to start buying.

For these current days we have to be more nimble in the market and get the right edge (edge can be specific knowledge both fundamentals, technical, mathematical etc). Buying when prices are falling may be buying into STAGE 4; we all know what will happen here. Welcome to the new reality of the market?

Caution: This information is for educational purpose only.