duni04:
This kind of analysis is meant for an already established democracy where politics revolves around the people and service. In everything you wrote you failed to acknowledge the power of incumbency and money. Jonathan has the resources of the state at his disposal including the security agencies that are already hounding some of these npdp governors. I still maintain that all jonathan has to do is accede to whatever requests these npdp people are making or just open the treasury for them and they'll run back to the pdp before 2015. We saw drama like dis one prior to the 2003 elections where atiku and orji kalu thought they controlled the PDP and obasanjo taught them that the power of a sitting president supersedes anything else. Obasanjo settled his own house drama with Ghana must go politics on the floors of both legislative houses. Shebi its just to sack tukur, allow the npdp governors select their successors in 2015 and beg wike to leave amaechi alone. Then probably dump sambo and replace him with Lamido. Let's watch

Sunny_bobo:

Watch and see. Their seats will be declared vacant and na koboko MOPOL go use flog dem if they turn up for a session after their seats must have been declared vacant.

kbdrim:





You are also forgeting that this is the first time someone from a minority tribe is ruling Nigeria. You are also overestimating the intellectual capacity of GEJ. I dont think he commands the same respect OBJ had in 2003. remember that in 2011, none of these northern Governors(north east and north west) delivered their states to PDP. It is only worse right now especially in the north. There is no guarantee that even if GEJ accedes to their demands, he wont change his mind after 2015 and start hounding them into jail (GOV sylva comes to mind). The OBJ scenario also differs in 2003 because all the Governors were also looking for a 2nd term in Office. All the current G7 governors except kwara are in their second terms and therefore have nothing to loose. Money doesnt always sort it out as can be seen in 2007 Third term problem. This was also because most of the Governors were also serving their second terms in office and so still went ahead to mess the third term up. Lamido and Babangida Aliyu backtracking might actually be because they feels they stand a better chance of actualizing their ambitions in PDP instead of the APC. You can trust the average northerner...They would not be cowed by the use of force especially by a president from a minority tribe. There has never being a time when a sitting President has been this challenged and it hasnt gone unnoticed.

ndu_chucks:

Why are you people so lazy that you can't lookup simple information, but instead you'll confidently make pronouncements which project you as uninformed?

The constitution allows for these house members to decamp, in fact Section 68 (1) of the 1999 Constitution allows defection of any lawmaker if there is division in the political party of which he was previously a member or a merger of two or more political parties or factions by one of which he was previously sponsored.

Their seats cannot be constitutionally rendered vacant. I expect additional defection from the house and senate in coming days. I'm sorry to say that GEJ's days are numbered.

alj harem: from rubbish to garbage. SMH

GeneralJ:
just like from sperm to vagina, abi, is that unrelated?

payless: Jonathan is about to be consumed by his lack of political width and charisma. He is being led by sycophants who don't really mean well for him except for their pockets. I expect Tambuwal and other Northern legislators to declare for APC by February. This should confirm why I said many times that PDP is a Northern party that is supported by some southern slaves mostly based in South-east and South-south. The Nigerian Constitution favours the North more than any other region because, the North dominates the National Assembly; in terms of number. There are more than 68% of PDP legislators in the House of Representatives and Senate. I expect these Northern PDP legislators to desert PDP and move to APC. Jonathan will be left with Akpabio, Orji, Obi, Mimiko, Elechi, Chime and the governor of Cross-River State, Bamanga Tukur, Anenih, Okupe, Gulak, Abati and few others.........

One thing that I know is that, you don't fight the North politically. It is never advisable to let the North have a common enemy. When you fight the North, they tend to come together and fight their opponents regardless of their party affiliations. All the Northern Governors who claim to be in support of Jonathan are currently under pressure to dump Jonathan. Governor of Bauchi and Katsina will be put under a lot of pressure by Emirs and Sultan to dump Jonathan by end of next year. These governors will definitely dump him. Normally, the Northern elites do not favor Buhari but they are ready to support Buhari to get there and deprive Jonathan the second term he so much crave. The North has been threatened by Jonathan utterances of "Igbos are my back bone" "the votes I got from the North only came from Igbos". Those utterances were wrong by the President of Nigeria. As a a matter of fact, it was Sultan of Sokoto and some Emirs who declared support for Jonathan in the North when IBB, Atiku, Adamu Ciroma and others were giving Jonathan tough time. This was at the time of tension in the North in 2011.

The goal of the North is to get anyone from their region elected as President. It doesn't matter who that person eventually is.

Jonathan and his political rookies have woken up a sleeping giant.

duni04:
Seriously I think the only people being deceived here are the APC heirachy and uninformed Nigerians. Haven't u found it rather odd that the 2 governors that were at the forefront of the whole npdp saga, babangida aliyu and Sule lamido have chosen to remain in d PDP? This whole merger thing is a charade. Babangida aliyu and Lamido are using the other nPDP governors to buy leverage from Jonathan. When Jonathan finally accedes to their requests, don't b shocked wen Lamido and Aliyu start telling u it was a family disagreement that has been sorted out and pull the others back to the PDP. Its very cynical to think that aliyu and Lamido are staying behind in d PDP cos they stand a better chance there. Who will support them in d primaries? PDP delegates from Bayelsa or Akwa Ibom? The idea of having belgore, abdulfatha ahmed and saraki under the same roof in Kwara or Aregbesola oyinlola and omisore under the same roof in Osun is just laughable and impractical. Same goes for the other nPDP and APC merger states. Its a leverage thing. The joke is on d APC. Sadly wen d reconciliation thing goes down and the nPDP governors return, it'll b too late for the APC to mount any opposition in 2015. The only losers here will b the APC and Amaechi whose problem with Jonathan is more personal than political. In 2007 wen obasanjo was persecuting Atiku, Atiku tried to use the victim card to coerce the northern PDP into dumping OBj. OBJ simply chased Atiku out of the party to the ACN, swept the party structure off his feet and got influential northerners to lure aggrieved Atiku loyalists back into the PDP.

duni04:
This kind of analysis is meant for an already established democracy where politics revolves around the people and service. In everything you wrote you failed to acknowledge the power of incumbency and money. Jonathan has the resources of the state at his disposal including the security agencies that are already hounding some of these npdp governors. I still maintain that all jonathan has to do is accede to whatever requests these npdp people are making or just open the treasury for them and they'll run back to the pdp before 2015. We saw drama like dis one prior to the 2003 elections where atiku and orji kalu thought they controlled the PDP and obasanjo taught them that the power of a sitting president supersedes anything else. Obasanjo settled his own house drama with Ghana must go politics on the floors of both legislative houses. Shebi its just to sack tukur, allow the npdp governors select their successors in 2015 and beg wike to leave amaechi alone. Then probably dump sambo and replace him with Lamido. Let's watch

alaoeri:
GEJ is too clueless for what u stated beside its too late, he took the Northerners for a ride now they are in for it, we keep saying this GEJ is surrounded by bunch of sycophants & praise singers (bad advisers). Believe me Aboki 'll always be Aboki the little ppl that still support him from the North 'll soon switch allegiance. In Nigerian politics don't fvck with the North because they control it that's the reality.

X-factoria:

The elections that brought these guys into office were won by the PDP so it should be easy to make some argument for declaring their seats vacant. By the time the legal battle starts, even the defectors will get tired and so distracted that they won't have the time and resources to fully prepare for 2015 elections if what happened to Atiku in 2007 would serve as a lesson.

I siddon dey look!

alaoeri:
GEJ is too clueless for what u stated beside its too late, he took the Northerners for a ride now they are in for it, we keep saying this GEJ is surrounded by bunch of sycophants & praise singers (bad advisers). Believe Aboki 'll always be Aboki the little ppl that still support him from the North 'll soon switch allegiance. In Nigerian politics don't fvck with the North because they control it that's the reality.

dayokanu:

Yuguda governor of Bauchi won governorship under ANPP and later decamped to the PDP and nothing happened

Tinubu won election under AD later he moved to AC yet nothing happened

dayokanu: ^^ You really dont know much about these north, We love to deceive ourselves about the divide in the North

The truth is most of the political power belong to the Moslems in the North Kaduana, Nasarawa, Gombe Adamawa (Boni Haruna a xtian only became governor because the elected governor Atiku moved onto higher tings

Go to Kaduna where Ishaya Balat thought he would succeed Makarfi and see how he was rigged out till date in these states you mentioned they havent had a Xtian governor

payless: Jonathan is about to be consumed by his lack of political width and charisma. He is being led by sycophants who don't really mean well for him except for their pockets. I expect Tambuwal and other Northern legislators to declare for APC by February. This should confirm why I said many times that PDP is a Northern party that is supported by some southern slaves mostly based in South-east and South-south. The Nigerian Constitution favours the North more than any other region because, the North dominates the National Assembly; in terms of number. There are more than 68% of PDP legislators in the House of Representatives and Senate. I expect these Northern PDP legislators to desert PDP and move to APC. Jonathan will be left with Akpabio, Orji, Obi, Mimiko, Elechi, Chime and the governor of Cross-River State, Bamanga Tukur, Anenih, Okupe, Gulak, Abati and few others.........

One thing that I know is that, you don't fight the North politically. It is never advisable to let the North have a common enemy. When you fight the North, they tend to come together and fight their opponents regardless of their party affiliations. All the Northern Governors who claim to be in support of Jonathan are currently under pressure to dump Jonathan. Governor of Bauchi and Katsina will be put under a lot of pressure by Emirs and Sultan to dump Jonathan by end of next year. These governors will definitely dump him. Normally, the Northern elites do not favor Buhari but they are ready to support Buhari to get there and deprive Jonathan the second term he so much crave. The North has been threatened by Jonathan utterances of "Igbos are my back bone" "the votes I got from the North only came from Igbos". Those utterances were wrong by the President of Nigeria. As a a matter of fact, it was Sultan of Sokoto and some Emirs who declared support for Jonathan in the North when IBB, Atiku, Adamu Ciroma and others were giving Jonathan tough time. This was at the time of tension in the North in 2011.

The goal of the North is to get anyone from their region elected as President. It doesn't matter who that person eventually is.

Jonathan and his political rookies have woken up a sleeping giant.

donphilopus: Was that how you declared Sen. Borofice's seat vacant, when he defected from LP to the then ACN??

ndu_chucks:

Why are you people so lazy that you can't lookup simple information, but instead you'll confidently make pronouncements which project you as uninformed?

The constitution allows for these house members to decamp, in fact Section 68 (1) of the 1999 Constitution allows defection of any lawmaker if there is division in the political party of which he was previously a member or a merger of two or more political parties or factions by one of which he was previously sponsored.

Their seats cannot be constitutionally rendered vacant. I expect additional defection from the house and senate in coming days. I'm sorry to say that GEJ's days are numbered.

payless:


This is a defining moment in the lives of Nigerians. These people mean business. They are are out in full force to nail Jonathan. Jonathan has done his worse and showed all his cards. It is too late for him now. Any abuse of power will be met with revolt and public sympathy for his victims. The House of Representatives breaking into APC hands will be the straw that finally broke the camel's back.

I expect Jonathan to exercise his best behaviours and go into dialogue with his opponents but I expect those Governors to rebuff him.

payless: Jonathan is about to be consumed by his lack of political width and charisma. He is being led by sycophants who don't really mean well for him except for their pockets. I expect Tambuwal and other Northern legislators to declare for APC by February. This should confirm why I said many times that PDP is a Northern party that is supported by some southern slaves mostly based in South-east and South-south. The Nigerian Constitution favours the North more than any other region because, the North dominates the National Assembly; in terms of number. There are more than 68% of PDP legislators in the House of Representatives and Senate. I expect these Northern PDP legislators to desert PDP and move to APC. Jonathan will be left with Akpabio, Orji, Obi, Mimiko, Elechi, Chime and the governor of Cross-River State, Bamanga Tukur, Anenih, Okupe, Gulak, Abati and few others.........

One thing that I know is that, you don't fight the North politically. It is never advisable to let the North have a common enemy. When you fight the North, they tend to come together and fight their opponents regardless of their party affiliations. All the Northern Governors who claim to be in support of Jonathan are currently under pressure to dump Jonathan. Governor of Bauchi and Katsina will be put under a lot of pressure by Emirs and Sultan to dump Jonathan by end of next year. These governors will definitely dump him. Normally, the Northern elites do not favor Buhari but they are ready to support Buhari to get there and deprive Jonathan the second term he so much crave. The North has been threatened by Jonathan utterances of "Igbos are my back bone" "the votes I got from the North only came from Igbos". Those utterances were wrong by the President of Nigeria. As a a matter of fact, it was Sultan of Sokoto and some Emirs who declared support for Jonathan in the North when IBB, Atiku, Adamu Ciroma and others were giving Jonathan tough time. This was at the time of tension in the North in 2011.

The goal of the North is to get anyone from their region elected as President. It doesn't matter who that person eventually is.

Jonathan and his political rookies have woken up a sleeping giant.

Wsdm:
Did you know that the present Bauchi state governor was elected under ANPP in 2007 and he decamped to his inlaw's( late Umar Musa Yar'adua) party there after and nothing happened?

ndu_chucks:

Why are you people so lazy that you can't lookup simple information, but instead you'll confidently make pronouncements which project you as uninformed?

The constitution allows for these house members to decamp, in fact Section 68 (1) of the 1999 Constitution allows defection of any lawmaker if there is division in the political party of which he was previously a member or a merger of two or more political parties or factions by one of which he was previously sponsored.

Their seats cannot be constitutionally rendered vacant. I expect additional defection from the house and senate in coming days. I'm sorry to say that GEJ's days are numbered.

payless: Jonathan is about to be consumed by his lack of political width and charisma. He is being led by sycophants who don't really mean well for him except for their pockets. I expect Tambuwal and other Northern legislators to declare for APC by February. This should confirm why I said many times that PDP is a Northern party that is supported by some southern slaves mostly based in South-east and South-south. The Nigerian Constitution favours the North more than any other region because, the North dominates the National Assembly; in terms of number. There are more than 68% of PDP legislators in the House of Representatives and Senate. I expect these Northern PDP legislators to desert PDP and move to APC. Jonathan will be left with Akpabio, Orji, Obi, Mimiko, Elechi, Chime and the governor of Cross-River State, Bamanga Tukur, Anenih, Okupe, Gulak, Abati and few others.........

One thing that I know is that, you don't fight the North politically. It is never advisable to let the North have a common enemy. When you fight the North, they tend to come together and fight their opponents regardless of their party affiliations. All the Northern Governors who claim to be in support of Jonathan are currently under pressure to dump Jonathan. Governor of Bauchi and Katsina will be put under a lot of pressure by Emirs and Sultan to dump Jonathan by end of next year. These governors will definitely dump him. Normally, the Northern elites do not favor Buhari but they are ready to support Buhari to get there and deprive Jonathan the second term he so much crave. The North has been threatened by Jonathan utterances of "Igbos are my back bone" "the votes I got from the North only came from Igbos". Those utterances were wrong by the President of Nigeria. As a a matter of fact, it was Sultan of Sokoto and some Emirs who declared support for Jonathan in the North when IBB, Atiku, Adamu Ciroma and others were giving Jonathan tough time. This was at the time of tension in the North in 2011.

The goal of the North is to get anyone from their region elected as President. It doesn't matter who that person eventually is.

Jonathan and his political rookies have woken up a sleeping giant.

payless:


You are more clueless than I thought. You should be seeing clearly by March 2014. Jonathan is done politically. Any wrong move by him will result in an impeachment. They aren't looking at impeaching him but any wrong move automatically activates that.