X-factoria:


You must have some illusion about the geographical area and the people of the North. If you are thinking the north is Kano and Sokoto or Hausa/Fulani you have a lot to learn. Let me remind you that what you refer to as the North comprise of Taraba, Gombe, Benue, Plateau, Kaduna, Kogi, Kwara, Niger and Adamawa all of which have sizable population of Christians and minority tribes who don't give a damn about the call for a return of power to the north because it won't serve their interests. It has never been in their interest and they are no fools!

Jonathan will only be a fool by not exploiting this obvious divide in the north. A strategists would tell him the home truth - to forget about Kano and Sokoto. He can never win there! If I were him, I will start right now to pump money and empower people in these aforementioned "swing" states, give them juicy political appointments and court their leaders - both political and traditional. He has all the oil money to buy anybody. Goodluck to him sha.

emorse: All in preparation for 2015. Will a change of party make these guys better people? This only goes to show that no political party in Nigeria is trustworthy.

kbdrim: The beauty of what is happening right now in PDP is that balance of play is shifted to the centre. Even if the opposition does not win in 2015, the margin would not be too much which keeps any winning party on its toes. Nigeria is gradually moving to a two party state and that too is good for the country.
One of the attractions of the APC to the 5 governors is that the APC would recognise their worth and contribution as both the APC and nPDP need each other to make progress. Anyone who thinks these governors do not have a major influence in their states should think long and hard. Past governors who have started their own parties(Orji Uzo Kalu, Ladoja and Gbenga Daniel) have shown that it is still possible to upset the cart. The advantage the current defecting governors in the north have is that for the first time they would also be riding in the same party with Buhari who still has a cult following in the north. 2015 presents a very interesting challenge for Nigerian politics.
I will not be shocked if other smart governors join the ranks of the APC especially in the North as it is easier to ride with the mass movement than against.2011 comes to mind

figment232: Rubbish! time will tell

ndu_chucks:

Why are you people so lazy that you can't lookup simple information, but instead you'll confidently make pronouncements which project you as uninformed?

The constitution allows for these house members to decamp, in fact Section 68 (1) of the 1999 Constitution allows defection of any lawmaker if there is division in the political party of which he was previously a member or a merger of two or more political parties or factions by one of which he was previously sponsored.

Their seats cannot be constitutionally rendered vacant. I expect additional defection from the house and senate in coming days. I'm sorry to say that GEJ's days are numbered.

pcnwamadi:
I agree wit u to an extent. In Rivers state were I come from, amaechi has no influence one bit. Watch and see if he will not be removed as governor come January court judgement. He has moved all his family members to American, cos he knows winter is comin, and its comin hard on him. Lol. People tink Jonathan is daft, cos doesnt talk much like a normal Nigerian is known for. He takes action and u dont see him coming

ndu_chucks:

Why are you people so lazy that you can't lookup simple information, but instead you'll confidently make pronouncements which project you as uninformed?

The constitution allows for these house members to decamp, in fact Section 68 (1) of the 1999 Constitution allows defection of any lawmaker if there is division in the political party of which he was previously a member or a merger of two or more political parties or factions by one of which he was previously sponsored.

Their seats cannot be constitutionally rendered vacant. I expect additional defection from the house and senate in coming days. I'm sorry to say that GEJ's days are numbered.

taharqa: And who told you there is legally any 'Division' or 'faction' in d PDP? Abi, you nova hear of d Court's pronouncement on that mata... Stay there and watch real politics play out in d days and weeks to come..

donphilopus: You're always shouting Legislators! What happened to Sen Robert Ajayi Borofice, when he defected from LP to the then ACN??

Ozonna:

By what u wrote here, i believe that the easiest way for APC to lose 2015 elecions is by making you their chief political strategist .

TechWalker007:

Oga, the said division must be a legal one recognized by both parties and the INEC.
You just mis-interpreted the constitution.

Did you listen to Bamidele Aturu on Channels TV?

taharqa: LP resemble PDP, abi?? Shebi, you dey confuse dem two? Don't worry sha, you wud know d diff soon enuf.... Moreova, may be you do not know, LP has since requested that his seat be declared Vacant and David Mark almost did so but for a court case delaying d whole tin..

ndu_chucks:

Aturu is doing what lawyers do best, making money by representing any side of the coin.

payless: Jonathan is about to be consumed by his lack of political width and charisma. He is being led by sycophants who don't really mean well for him except for their pockets. I expect Tambuwal and other Northern legislators to declare for APC by February. This should confirm why I said many times that PDP is a Northern party that is supported by some southern slaves mostly based in South-east and South-south. The Nigerian Constitution favours the North more than any other region because, the North dominates the National Assembly; in terms of number. There are more than 68% of PDP legislators in the House of Representatives and Senate. I expect these Northern PDP legislators to desert PDP and move to APC. Jonathan will be left with Akpabio, Orji, Obi, Mimiko, Elechi, Chime and the governor of Cross-River State, Bamanga Tukur, Anenih, Okupe, Gulak, Abati and few others.........

One thing that I know is that, you don't fight the North politically. It is never advisable to let the North have a common enemy. When you fight the North, they tend to come together and fight their opponents regardless of their party affiliations. All the Northern Governors who claim to be in support of Jonathan are currently under pressure to dump Jonathan. Governor of Bauchi and Katsina will be put under a lot of pressure by Emirs and Sultan to dump Jonathan by end of next year. These governors will definitely dump him. Normally, the Northern elites do not favor Buhari but they are ready to support Buhari to get there and deprive Jonathan the second term he so much crave. The North has been threatened by Jonathan utterances of "Igbos are my back bone" "the votes I got from the North only came from Igbos". Those utterances were wrong by the President of Nigeria. As a a matter of fact, it was Sultan of Sokoto and some Emirs who declared support for Jonathan in the North when IBB, Atiku, Adamu Ciroma and others were giving Jonathan tough time. This was at the time of tension in the North in 2011.

The goal of the North is to get anyone from their region elected as President. It doesn't matter who that person eventually is.

Jonathan and his political rookies have woken up a sleeping giant.

Delafruita: its very annoying when some people comment so confidently even when they're wrong

Delafruita: personally,I have my doubts about the ability of the APC to wrest power from PDP in 2015.its one thing to take a state,but the centre is a different ball game.however,the northern political bloc is one that finds its strenght in unity of purpose and interest.in reality,the performance or allegiance of the northern governors don't matter,the majority of the northern votes will go wherever the northern elite decides it should go.if its unwilling to go that way,they'd rig it that way.GEJ pinning his hopes on the christian minority or the south east and south south will be unwise.no amount of federal money pumped into the north will give him the votes unless he gets the support of the political and royal elite of the north.obasanjo realised that in 2003 which is why he acted the fool with atiku.

Its understandable that the migrating PDP governors might have clashes with those controlling the APc structure in their states but as is said of poolitics:interests matter more.do I see oyinlola and aregbe working together?fatah and belgore?the coming together of strange bedfellows isn't alien to our politics so anything is possible.

It is my sincere hope that the foundation of the APC is strong enough to withstand and accomodate the varying interests the migration will bring along.it will be unfortunate if it goes the way of kenya's rainbow coalition

TechWalker007:

I am not talking about representation in court but explanation of the section of the constitution you mis-interpreted.

payless: Jonathan is about to be consumed by his lack of political width and charisma. He is being led by sycophants who don't really mean well for him except for their pockets. I expect Tambuwal and other Northern legislators to declare for APC by February. This should confirm why I said many times that PDP is a Northern party that is supported by some southern slaves mostly based in South-east and South-south. The Nigerian Constitution favours the North more than any other region because, the North dominates the National Assembly; in terms of number. There are more than 68% of PDP legislators in the House of Representatives and Senate. I expect these Northern PDP legislators to desert PDP and move to APC. Jonathan will be left with Akpabio, Orji, Obi, Mimiko, Elechi, Chime and the governor of Cross-River State, Bamanga Tukur, Anenih, Okupe, Gulak, Abati and few others.........

One thing that I know is that, you don't fight the North politically. It is never advisable to let the North have a common enemy. When you fight the North, they tend to come together and fight their opponents regardless of their party affiliations. All the Northern Governors who claim to be in support of Jonathan are currently under pressure to dump Jonathan. Governor of Bauchi and Katsina will be put under a lot of pressure by Emirs and Sultan to dump Jonathan by end of next year. These governors will definitely dump him. Normally, the Northern elites do not favor Buhari but they are ready to support Buhari to get there and deprive Jonathan the second term he so much crave. The North has been threatened by Jonathan utterances of "Igbos are my back bone" "the votes I got from the North only came from Igbos". Those utterances were wrong by the President of Nigeria. As a a matter of fact, it was Sultan of Sokoto and some Emirs who declared support for Jonathan in the North when IBB, Atiku, Adamu Ciroma and others were giving Jonathan tough time. This was at the time of tension in the North in 2011.

The goal of the North is to get anyone from their region elected as President. It doesn't matter who that person eventually is.

Jonathan and his political rookies have woken up a sleeping giant.

Allohrandy: Olodo, you don't know anything about Nigeria polities. #GEJ 2015#