taharqa: I always talk like a 3 year old Kid, who is not only learning how to talk but also learning how to form Meanings in him/her little, immature mind. Why??

Sunny_bobo:

Which North are you talking about?

Does that include Benue, Plateau, Kogi, Taraba, Nassarawa, Kwara?

I laugh in Izon

Nassarawa - CPC - Now APC
Kwara - PDP - Now APC

Sunny_bobo: That'a Labour party's headache.

Gbawe:

They are not lazy. They simply lack political sophistication . They do not even have an iota of it. You will find that these guys , despite being conventionally educated, will always lack political sophistication because their clannish nature and ethno-religious prejudice against others will perpetually prevent them from appreciating what politics, a game of numbers and alliances plus strategic planning, is all about.

We are seeing politics playing out before ours yet some naff and politically gauche 'throwbacks' prefer going around shouting "boko/Yoruba" Party, "Yorobu and aboki gang-up" and other such illiterate and prejudiced drivel.

I really pity some people and how their mental 'stumbling blocks' (divisiveness, prejudice, ethno-religious jingoism, paranoia, persecution complex et al) will always prevent them from seeing what matters .

dayokanu:

Yuguda governor of Bauchi won governorship under ANPP and later decamped to the PDP and nothing happened

Tinubu won election under AD later he moved to AC yet nothing happened

Sunny_bobo: That'a Labour party's headache.

duni04:
This kind of analysis is meant for an already established democracy where politics revolves around the people and service. In everything you wrote you failed to acknowledge the power of incumbency and money. Jonathan has the resources of the state at his disposal including the security agencies that are already hounding some of these npdp governors. I still maintain that all jonathan has to do is accede to whatever requests these npdp people are making or just open the treasury for them and they'll run back to the pdp before 2015. We saw drama like dis one prior to the 2003 elections where atiku and orji kalu thought they controlled the PDP and obasanjo taught them that the power of a sitting president supersedes anything else. Obasanjo settled his own house drama with Ghana must go politics on the floors of both legislative houses. Shebi its just to sack tukur, allow the npdp governors select their successors in 2015 and beg wike to leave amaechi alone. Then probably dump sambo and replace him with Lamido. Let's watch

taharqa: Exactly!!

payless:


Exactly. The Nigerian Constituion vested most of the power in Hausa hands. The Hausas own PDP. Those few Hausas who are supporting Jonathan at the moment will surely switch allegiance when the Emirs and Sultan start calling them. The Hausas feel threaten in the military the cherish so much with Ikhejira sending them to die in mass in Maiduguri. Hausas are being kicked out of the military and many government offices. They are going to strike back soon. The Hausas are sophisticated when it comes to alliances and political games.


Jonathan and other Jonathanians are children of politics. I expect them to see clearly by March 2014.

kbdrim:
We all have our bias and its obvious from my write ups...whether they are sincere or not is what we really cant say to a definate conclusion. You sound so sure of your own assumptions but i think you should leave room for what ifs....The analogy you give for atiku in 2007 is different because Yaradua was a a northerner and so it was easier for the north to vote one of theirs. Besides the masterstroke from OBJ was the YARADUA family made Atiku politically so it was always going to be difficult to fight Yaradua as he was perceived as nice and a gentleman. If you lived and understand the mind of the average northerner then you should be scared for the PDP if you are a sympathizer. 2011 was a typical example..PDP did not win in any north west or North eastern state in the presidential elections.These nPDP governors have nothing to benefit this time around from the PDP since there are in their 2nd terms. Does it make any logical sense for Kwankwaso, Wammako and others to announce a merger and then come back because they have sorted their differences? It doesnt make any logical sense...Lamido and Babangida are only bidding their time..they might still remain in PDP but they would most likely join their colleagues in APC if you understand the mind of an average northerner

duni04:
Do u seriously think the northerner nPDP governors will allow the APC eat into their already solid political base just because of Jonathan? I believe the nPDP and the APC are at the same stage the ACN and CPC were shortly before the 2011 elections where they both agreed in principle to merge but ended up falling apart. The kinds of alliances that this merger will potentially throw up are just ludicrous and impractical. Aregbesola, oyinlola and omisore in d same party? Belgore that has spent the last 2yrs calling abdulfatha a thief will now merge with his party? Its just impossible. And please explain to me what the most vociferous members of the nPDP, Aliyu and Lamido are still doing in the PDP? IMO, Its a family problem that'll soon b sorted out.

taharqa: Ain't you ASHAMED of yourself. Hausa this, Hausa that; Hausa here, Hausa there. All yr comments on this thread has been about how 'Great' and 'Sophisticated' and 'ALMIGHTY' d Hausas are, not on ideology or Governance- not even d usual pretences. Yet, you say you are Yoruba!!! You bladdi, Shameless SLAVE..... By d way, GEJ is the 1st President/Leader who ever came to Power/won an election, without d support (infact, against d massive opposition) of d 12 'core' Hausa/Fulani dominated states in Naija's 53 or so old history. I know you can't just fanthom how that is possible cos 'your' Hausa Masters have played their Power game on yr own people ever too often- from thoroughly making Awolowo a FRUSTRATED man to the DISGRACE of NOT ALLOWING Abiola to be President even after winning an election (and till today, NOTHING happened apart from d usal Noisemaking)........ It is yr 'mighty' Hausa-Fulanis (actuali, their Parasitic Elites) who are weaker than at any point in Naija's political history; it from the hands of yr Lords that Power is slipping away, not GEJ. By d way, Your Lords and Masters have for instance COMPLETELY lost the Fraud that was 'one north' myth- their most potent weapon of political control in both d region and d country. Get that into that DENSE head of yrs. A new Political REALITY is envolving in Naija; the Old Power Mongers and their new found Slave friends are just trying to turn their faces away from it, like d Peacock. They FAILED in 2011; they wud FAIL again in 2015. And again.....

donphilopus: Keep deceiving yourself man!! How many states from the SW voted against Jonathan in 2011?? Only one which is Osun voted against Jonathan, yet CPC still tried.

2015 Election would not be based on any foolish southern agenda! So Jonathan would hardly win one state in the SW, which is Ondo. Come to the SS, PDP would try all their best in Edo, but we'll tell them that gone are those days where ballot papers would be taken to Anenih's house, so just expect a landslide victory for APC.

As for the North, Jigawa would be very hard for PDP, Plateau and Kaduna would also be very hard for them to win. The votes of Lagosians, and the entire Kano are more than the votes of the entire SE, including some parts of SS. So do not deceive your self, come 2015, we would say Goodbye To Goodluck (GTG).

donphilopus: Keep deceiving yourself man!! How many states from the SW voted against Jonathan in 2011?? Only one which is Osun voted against Jonathan, yet CPC still tried.

2015 Election would not be based on any foolish southern agenda! So Jonathan would hardly win one state in the SW, which is Ondo. Come to the SS, PDP would try all their best in Edo, but we'll tell them that gone are those days where ballot papers would be taken to Anenih's house, so just expect a landslide victory for APC.

As for the North, Jigawa would be very hard for PDP, Plateau and Kaduna would also be very hard for them to win. The votes of Lagosians, and the entire Kano are more than the votes of the entire SE, including some parts of SS. So do not deceive your self, come 2015, we would say Goodbye To Goodluck (GTG).

duni04:
Nairaland analysis. Continue counting votes from state to state like it matters. Hope u won't get heart attack wen Jonathan wins in 2015.

duni04:
Nairaland analysis. Continue counting votes from state to state like it matters. Hope u won't get heart attack wen Jonathan wins in 2015.

taharqa: lol.... This is exactly why I hardly comment on Pure Politics here on NL. Excitable Kids just types anytin that comes to their minds, in d believe that they are 'analysing' .....

donphilopus: Where would he win??

taharqa: Those are Govs, OLODO. The Rule does not affect them. For Legislators however, that is a completely diff ball game entirely.... Get a copy of d Constitution and Electoral Act, to help yr Ignorance. They are FREE online...

donphilopus: Keep deceiving yourself man!! How many states from the SW voted against Jonathan in 2011?? Only one which is Osun voted against Jonathan, yet CPC still tried.

2015 Election would not be based on any foolish southern agenda! So Jonathan would hardly win one state in the SW, which is Ondo. Come to the SS, PDP would try all their best in Edo, but we'll tell them that gone are those days where ballot papers would be taken to Anenih's house, so just expect a landslide victory for APC.

As for the North, Jigawa would be very hard for PDP, Plateau and Kaduna would also be very hard for them to win. The votes of Lagosians, and the entire Kano are more than the votes of the entire SE, including some parts of SS. So do not deceive your self, come 2015, we would say Goodbye To Goodluck (GTG).

Ozonna:

By what u wrote here, i believe that the easiest way for APC to lose 2015 elecions is by making you their chief political strategist .

payless: Jonathan is about to be consumed by his lack of political width and charisma. He is being led by sycophants who don't really mean well for him except for their pockets. I expect Tambuwal and other Northern legislators to declare for APC by February. This should confirm why I said many times that PDP is a Northern party that is supported by some southern slaves mostly based in South-east and South-south. The Nigerian Constitution favours the North more than any other region because, the North dominates the National Assembly; in terms of number. There are more than 68% of PDP legislators in the House of Representatives and Senate. I expect these Northern PDP legislators to desert PDP and move to APC. Jonathan will be left with Akpabio, Orji, Obi, Mimiko, Elechi, Chime and the governor of Cross-River State, Bamanga Tukur, Anenih, Okupe, Gulak, Abati and few others.........

One thing that I know is that, you don't fight the North politically. It is never advisable to let the North have a common enemy. When you fight the North, they tend to come together and fight their opponents regardless of their party affiliations. All the Northern Governors who claim to be in support of Jonathan are currently under pressure to dump Jonathan. Governor of Bauchi and Katsina will be put under a lot of pressure by Emirs and Sultan to dump Jonathan by end of next year. These governors will definitely dump him. Normally, the Northern elites do not favor Buhari but they are ready to support Buhari to get there and deprive Jonathan the second term he so much crave. The North has been threatened by Jonathan utterances of "Igbos are my back bone" "the votes I got from the North only came from Igbos". Those utterances were wrong by the President of Nigeria. As a a matter of fact, it was Sultan of Sokoto and some Emirs who declared support for Jonathan in the North when IBB, Atiku, Adamu Ciroma and others were giving Jonathan tough time. This was at the time of tension in the North in 2011.

The goal of the North is to get anyone from their region elected as President. It doesn't matter who that person eventually is.

Jonathan and his political rookies have woken up a sleeping giant.

Abu Mikey:

These legislators are so damn clueless!!!

I hope they know that their seats becomes vacant......?

X-factoria:


We are not talking of governorship elections in states like Kaduna where the Hausa/Fulani have the majority. We are talking about the presidential elections where its correlation with state elections voting patterns is weak. There is a divide in the north and you need to go get goggles if you can't see it. Taraba, Benue and the Plateau [/b]would never prefer Buhari to Jonathan for example, never!

duni04:
Seriously I think the only people being deceived here are the APC heirachy and uninformed Nigerians. Haven't u found it rather odd that the 2 governors that were at the forefront of the whole npdp saga, babangida aliyu and Sule lamido have chosen to remain in d PDP? This whole merger thing is a charade. Babangida aliyu and Lamido are using the other nPDP governors to buy leverage from Jonathan. When Jonathan finally accedes to their requests, don't b shocked wen Lamido and Aliyu start telling u it was a family disagreement that has been sorted out and pull the others back to the PDP. Its very cynical to think that aliyu and Lamido are staying behind in d PDP cos they stand a better chance there. Who will support them in d primaries? PDP delegates from Bayelsa or Akwa Ibom? The idea of having belgore, abdulfatha ahmed and saraki under the same roof in Kwara or Aregbesola oyinlola and omisore under the same roof in Osun is just laughable and impractical. Same goes for the other nPDP and APC merger states. Its a leverage thing. The joke is on d APC. Sadly wen d reconciliation thing goes down and the nPDP governors return, it'll b too late for the APC to mount any opposition in 2015. The only losers here will b the APC and Amaechi whose problem with Jonathan is more personal than political. In 2007 wen obasanjo was persecuting Atiku, Atiku tried to use the victim card to coerce the northern PDP into dumping OBj. OBJ simply chased Atiku out of the party to the ACN, swept the party structure off his feet and got influential northerners to lure aggrieved Atiku loyalists back into the PDP.

taharqa: Those are Govs, OLODO. The Rule does not affect them. For Legislators however, that is a completely diff ball game entirely.... Get a copy of d Constitution and Electoral Act, to help yr Ignorance. They are FREE online...

Abu Mikey:

These legislators are so damn clueless!!!

I hope they know that their seats becomes vacant......?

payless: Jonathan is about to be consumed by his lack of political width and charisma. He is being led by sycophants who don't really mean well for him except for their pockets. I expect Tambuwal and other Northern legislators to declare for APC by February. This should confirm why I said many times that PDP is a Northern party that is supported by some southern slaves mostly based in South-east and South-south. The Nigerian Constitution favours the North more than any other region because, the North dominates the National Assembly; in terms of number. There are more than 68% of PDP legislators in the House of Representatives and Senate. I expect these Northern PDP legislators to desert PDP and move to APC. Jonathan will be left with Akpabio, Orji, Obi, Mimiko, Elechi, Chime and the governor of Cross-River State, Bamanga Tukur, Anenih, Okupe, Gulak, Abati and few others.........

One thing that I know is that, you don't fight the North politically. It is never advisable to let the North have a common enemy. When you fight the North, they tend to come together and fight their opponents regardless of their party affiliations. All the Northern Governors who claim to be in support of Jonathan are currently under pressure to dump Jonathan. Governor of Bauchi and Katsina will be put under a lot of pressure by Emirs and Sultan to dump Jonathan by end of next year. These governors will definitely dump him. Normally, the Northern elites do not favor Buhari but they are ready to support Buhari to get there and deprive Jonathan the second term he so much crave. The North has been threatened by Jonathan utterances of "Igbos are my back bone" "the votes I got from the North only came from Igbos". Those utterances were wrong by the President of Nigeria. As a a matter of fact, it was Sultan of Sokoto and some Emirs who declared support for Jonathan in the North when IBB, Atiku, Adamu Ciroma and others were giving Jonathan tough time. This was at the time of tension in the North in 2011.

The goal of the North is to get anyone from their region elected as President. It doesn't matter who that person eventually is.

Jonathan and his political rookies have woken up a sleeping giant.

IGBO-SON:


^^^Go and sleep!