₦airaland Forum

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aninibinladen:
Know this and know peace.......

NE: Tinubu will win Borno and he will also win Yobe by a slim margin. Atiku will win Bauchi, Taraba and of course Adamawa. Gombe is too close to call but even there, Atiku has the advantage.

NW: Kano might go the way of either Tinubu, Atiku or Kwankwaso but one thing is sure, the margin of win will be very slim. Tinubu will take Zamfara by a very slim margin. Atiku will win Jigawa but with a slim margin due to Kwankwaso's influence in the state and Badaru's support for APC. Atiku will win Sokoto, Katsina and Kebbi. Kaduna is too close to call for either Tinubu or Atiku.

NC: FCT will go to Atiku but Obi will also do well. Plateau and Nasarawa will go to Atiku, Tinubu will win Kogi and Kwara. Niger might go to Tinubu but with a slim margin. Benue is too close to call, Obi will do well in Benue but will not win, it is between Atiku and Tinubu.

In summary:

NE: Atiku (depending on where Gombe goes, they might split the states but Atiku's wins on popular votes)

NW: Atiku

NC: might go to Tinubu or Atiku, the decider will be Benue and the leaders of two of the senatorial zones in Benue seem to be with Atiku.

[/s]

You dont know politics.

aninibinladen:
[s][/s]Know this and know peace.......

NE: Tinubu will win Borno and he will also win Yobe by a slim margin. Atiku will win Bauchi, Taraba and of course Adamawa. Gombe is too close to call but even there, Atiku has the advantage.

NW: Kano might go the way of either Tinubu, Atiku or Kwankwaso but one thing is sure, the margin of win will be very slim. Tinubu will take Zamfara by a very slim margin. Atiku will win Jigawa but with a slim margin due to Kwankwaso's influence in the state and Badaru's support for APC. Atiku will win Sokoto, Katsina and Kebbi. Kaduna is too close to call for either Tinubu or Atiku.

NC: FCT will go to Atiku but Obi will also do well. Plateau and Nasarawa will go to Atiku, Tinubu will win Kogi and Kwara. Niger might go to Tinubu but with a slim margin. Benue is too close to call, Obi will do well in Benue but will not win, it is between Atiku and Tinubu.

In summary:

NE: Atiku (depending on where Gombe goes, they might split the states but Atiku's wins on popular votes)

NW: Atiku

NC: might go to Tinubu or Atiku, the decider will be Benue and the leaders of two of the senatorial zones in Benue seem to be with Atiku.[s][/s]

You dont know politics.

Mfetenang:
Your analysis was making sense until you said that Obi will be 1st in the South South, seriously what do you take the people of the South South for?
Do you think we're that stupid to vote for an Igbo man?
I don't really understand where all this attachment is coming from but I know that someone will be very disappointed when he sees the results from the South South next weekend.

Lol. Na so garfield1 and senatordave1 just de hammer LP with votes left, right, centre for SS , the thing even shock me. I go just de see figures like 700k, 600k 500k for 1 state for SS, i go just de wonder. Well na Saturday all these nonsense go stop. If Peter Obi see above 1M for SS make I bend.

MikeofAfrica:
In 2019, Buhari campaigned for Ganduje in Kano. He told his supporters in both English and Hausa to return Ganduje as Governor.

However after Buhari won the State with a landslide, Ganduje required a rerun and massive rigging to narrowly defeat an unknown Kwankwaso stooge.

Ganduje is more popular than Tinubu in NW yet you think that Buhari endorsement that could not make a way for Ganduje will make a way for Tinubu.

When Atiku wins Katsina, Jigawa, Sokoto and Kaduna, you will understand that blood is thicker than water in northern politics.

Thats was Kwankwaso against Ganduje. Stop talking like a political Neophyte. Even with the Kwankwaso influence, Ganduje still got about 1.2m votes, Buharis votes in Kano was 1.4m so its almost the same thing. The people of Kano outrightly rejected Atiku. With Kwankwaso out of PDP and contesting, that votes you saw in 2019 in governorship for Abba are Kwankwaso votes. Ganduje has his own 1.2m voters even with the whole campaign of calumny against him in 2019, now he is in his second tenure and he performed well, with numerous projects, he will give all that votes to Tinubu.
The race in Kano is between NNPP and APC. And both Parties will get close to or above 1m while Atiku will struggle with about 200-300k, PDP is finished in Kano, whether APC wins Kano or not the main point is that they will beat PDP with a huge margin. If you dont understand this then i cant help you.


I dont know which one of LP or PDP you are, because all of una na the same thing, you guys are united with your hate for Tinubu. Bht let me tell you this incase you dont know. Atiku will not win Kaduna, Sokoto, Katsina

Hopium:
I just wan give him supporters small hope.

I know Wamakko don finish assignment for Asiwaju.

Another thing is Buhari has ordered his supporters to cote massively for Tinubu, with a broadcast both in English and in Hausa

Ttalk:
I quite agree with you.

I want pundits to pay attention to Kano's vote in particular from NW.

Kano is a strong political factor in national politics and it seems political opinion is being shaped in that area which spread and determines the outcome of election in the NW.

Tinubu knows this and had worked so much since 2015 to win the heart of Kano politicians.

I won't be surprised if Tinubu gets a clear win in Kano ahead of Kwakwaso, and if that happens, APC will likely clear the entire NW.

One of the noises that would rent the air from our Obidient brothers will be the cry of rigging. They have failed to pay attention to details in politics and have allowed emotion to rule their judgment. They are going to be bitterly hurt by the outcome of the election

My brother, the election is done and dusted. Kwankwaso is more interested in the Kano governorship seat, not the presidency. The Islamic clerics have endorsed Tinubu, Kwankwaso is secretly working for Tinubu. Now the banger is that Buhari's broadcast both in English and Hausa, the northern Buahari supporters will come out en mass to vote Tinubu. Thats why I am tempted to give Bauchi to Tinubu.

In Kano PDP is dead as in dead, even if Kwankwaso is actively contesting. PDP will witness a heavy defeat in Kano. It will be NNPP 1m+, APC 1m+, PDP 300k.
Dont listen to all these dumb Obidients, they no sabi anything

Novarisammy2:
so what you are trying to say is that Benue and plateau state that has always gone PDP way since 1999 will suddenly swing to APC?

clap for urself

APC won Benue in 2015, you dont know history

garfield1:
You lie.tinubu will win kwara heavily,kogi and Niger narrowly.obi has plateau and benue.nasarawa will divide

Kogi and Niger Narrowly? Lol. De play.

Obi will win niether Benue or Plateau. And Tinubu will clearly win Nassarawa.

Hopium:
Tinubu will win the entire NW bar Sokoto. Him and AA go drag that one.

Peace!

Lol. It seems you haven't had the memo about Sokoto.

Atiku wont win a single state in NW

Ttalk:
LP
Obi has SE in the kitty and SS as a support base

APC
Tinubu has SW in the bag and NC as backup

PDP
Atiku has NE as a voting strength and ?? as a support base.

Leaving NW as the determinant of the presidential election.

Since NW has the highest voting strength and there's the Kwankwanso factor to reduce the % the other 3 major candidates can take from NW, then the voting % remaining after removing Kwakwaso votes will still be greater than the voting strength of the SE.

Then the winner of NW will be the winner of the election.

Let us now consider the strength of Obi, Tinubu, and Atiku in the NW.

Obi
Obi has no influence at all to muster 15% in the NW so he is out of the game.

Atiku
Atiku's influence in the NW comes from religious and ethnic factors, which would make him perform well in the NW.
However, many factors would equally reduce his performance in that region. Those factors will make him lose to his closest rival Tinubu in that region.

Tinubu
This is the region where APC has 6 governors, the highest number of Senators, and HoR members with structure in every local government.

This is also the region of the incumbent that benefited hugely in infrastructure and human empowerment, this region and its people benefiting from the present government would not allow their source of income close, interest is paramount in politics above religion and tribe, and for this reason, Tinubu will edge Atiku in NW and will become the overall winner.

SECOND POSITION BY REGION

Obi
Nil

Atiku
SW & SS

Tinubu
NE

Final Analysis

Obi
1st SE
1 St SS
2nd Nil

Atiku
1st NE
2nd SS
2nd SW

Tinubu
1st SW
1st NC
2nd NE

(NW)
Whoever wins NW becomes the winner

If Tinubu wins NW,

- he would have a national spread of 25% in 24 states
- he would have the highest votes with a 2 million difference from his runner-up.

If Atiku wins NW, he would have the 24% national spread but won't have the highest votes and the election will go to runoff

Conclusion.

Tinubu will win NW, and there won't be a need for a runoff

I dont know for sure of NW, But Atiku will not win NE evenn though its his region.

Atiku will not get up to 25% in Borno and Yobe. He will recieve at least 1 million vote handicap from these 2 states alone and thats being modest. He will lose Gombe Narrowly to APC. Even though he will win Adamawa and Taraba, the margin will be slim, he cant come out with more than 300k-400k vote advantage from there and thats even being too generous to him. That will leave us with Bauchi, Bauchi is too close to call, but whoever wins it will be with a very insignificant margin.

Summary.

Peter Obi to win SE, SS too close to call.
Atiku - will not win any region, 2nd in All the regions.
Tinubu. To win NW, NE, NC and SW.

Vickyguero:
I swear all this LP people think Dem go get vote for Core north like borno and Adamawa

LP will not get up to 200k combined in all NE/NW

garfield1:
Adamawa
Apc 25%
Pdp 55%
Lp 20%

Taraba
Apc 33%
Pdp 42%
Lp 25%

Bauchi
Apc 30%
Pdp 37%
Nnpp 28%
Lp 5%

Gombe
Apc 45%
Pdp 30%
Lp 15%
Nnpp 10%

Yobe
Apc 70%
Pdp 20%
Nnpp 10%
Lp 0.11%

Borno
Apc 80%
Pdp 10%
Lp 7%
Nnpp 3%


Mynd44
Seun
Nplfmod
Obinoscopy
Mukina2
Farano
Rotation
Indispensable
Donphilopus
Afamed
Calmobserver
Majole
Yarimo
Ttalk
Ityp
Penguin2
Digitron
Spencekat
Immaculatejoe
Ihenzy

Lol. Did You see Buhari broadcast today both in hausa and English?

-LP will not get up to 25% in Taraba. Share 5% each from LP to APC and PDP.

-The gap between PDP and APC is too huge in Adamawa, Atiku will win Adamawa but not with more than 100-150k votes. PDP 50% APC 35% LP12%, Othere 3%.

Take this to the bank, APC will win Bauchi, The Imans accross the mosques have instructed their folllowers to vote Muslim muslim ticket, Tijjaniya and Izala islamic sect have endorsed Tinubu, and Buhari has clearly endorses Tinubu. APC will comfortably win Bauchi.

APC 50%, PDP 30%, others 20%, NNPP wont score up to 20% in Bauchi.

Gombe and Yobe are good.

In Borno, LP wont get up to 5000 votes. Who dash LP 7% ? So you mean if total vote cast in Borno is 1.2million, LP will get 84k? Lol. Even PDP will struggle to get 80k for Borno.

Sancho oooo

Fred has been having abominations of games recently Tufiakwa!!!. I know sure say that guy na Brazilian I swear

Rashshyyyyy

Abeg make these Qatar people buy us, we need to offload a lot of people

We need to bring in Mctom for this game ooo, Fred and Stabilizer weak for this midfield I swear

senatordave1:
Obi is not my problem.I really fear atiku in the core north

Ofcourse, I dont waste my Time with Obi, Moreover he wont get 25% in All SW states maybe apart from Lagos, and all northern states apart from Benue and Plateau. So he has no path to Victory.

Now going to Atiku. He has a very very big problem in his hands. First Peter Obi have striped him of about 50% of his votes in SS and SE, the remaining votes which the PDP structure would have delivered for him, Wike still no wan give am that one. PDP is greatly divided in Imo, CrossRivers, Edo, Delta, Rivers and Abia,. In Anambra, Obi will sweep every single votes there and PDP is non-existent in Ebonyi, In Enugu the PDP structure there have decided not to vote him. So he is in real trouble.
Now going to SW, This naira redesign saga have seriously dealt Atiku a huge blow in the SW, the concensus is that Buhari is suffering the people so that Asiwaju will lose and pave way for Atiku, SWesterners are really agitated now they feel there is a northern aganda against Asiwaju. Asiwaju would have won SW comfortably normally but now, the margin will be very high now, look at the ibadan rally. The few Igbo+SS votes he used to get in Lagos, is now taken by Obi.
ATIKU'S problem in the South were he use to get good numbers before, have 2 formidable candidates this time and Buhari a fulani man just finished an 8 year tenure, the sentiments will be for a power shift, any protest vote against the APC will not go to Atiku.


Coming to the core north. Atiku never Envisaged that Obi and Wike factor will come up this strong, in the South, he was banking on the votes from SS and SE. So his northern base is weak, PDP is normally not a strong party in the core north so no matter who they present, they will struggle. Now unlike what many PDP supporters and members were hoping for that northern governors will betray Tinubu, that didnt happen, All the governors are infact very determined to deliver Tinubu because most of them want to still remain relevant after this election, and they want to do that through the APC, which is a strong core northern party. Again Buhari's body language might not look too impressive in support of Tinubu, but he has endorsed and raise his hands in public, most of his followers will vote for Tinubu, I have made my research recently and discovered that at least 60% of those that voted for Buhari in 2015 and 2019 in the north are still loyal to APC and will vote Tinubu. The core north will be very tight but I tip APC to edge it overall.
Now the naira redesign issues have agitated the APC base in the north, and Atiku's stands and posture on the issue have angered the APC governors and structure in the north who are looking to turn the narrative that its done to make them fail, they are the ones speaking for the masses, saying what the masses want to hear, although there is this Buhari die hards that wont like any criticism of him, those one wont necessarily vote Atiku, majority will follow whoever Buhari endorses. With this Those APC governors who Atiku was depending on to betray Tinubu are now incensed with him and are determined desperately to deliver tinibu to prove a point that they are nkt betrayals.

We have 13 NW/NE states, First Atiku will lose Zamfara, Borno and Yobe with huge margin, come distant 3rd in Kano. The few Christian minorities that would have given him their mergre votes will be divided with Obi. In Every other states Any state he wins he wont win with a good margin. APC for example is very very strong in Jigawa, Katsina, Kaduna and Kebbi. So states done finish na.

Another thing people are not remembering is that in NC Tinubu has a clear edge against Atiku, with Kogi, Niger and Kwara firmly in the bag for Tinubu, the other states Obi will scatter his strongholds for him.

So generally given Asiwaju strength in SW, Obi and Wike factor in SE and SS, Atiku needs Buhari-like huge numbers in the core north to stand any chance, and its clear he cant get.

senatordave1:
I'll say he will get 2.5 mil in se,1.5 mil in ss,500k in sw,1 mil in nc.he will get up tp 500k in ne nw.I see him beating atiku

Thats 6m, so how will he get the highest votes with 6m? And he will get about half of that max.

There are things you are yet to understand. This election will reveal a lot of things and everybody will be shocked, forget all these noise on social media. PDP and APC have some group of mature die hard party members, that will give them significant votes in strategic states.

1. SE will not produce more than 2m total votes cast.
In Ebonyi state for example, Dave Umahi will deliver and Upward of 35% of the votes for APC, Ebonyi state people dont think like most of the SE state, and most places there are rural, PDP is dead in Ebonyi but they will scrap traditional votes leaving LP with about 40% max which will be about 100-150k votes. Abia state same thing with OUK clearly delivering 25% through Abia north(i am 100% sure of this), PDP is very strong in Abia, Abia wont have more than 400k total votes, same with Enugu, so in those 2 states Obi will be having like 150-200k votes. In Anambra and Imo the total will not exceed 500k each. So generally his total votes in SE will revolves round 1million.

In the SS, I just laff when i see random people come on social media, shouting down everybody saying PDP/APC will not get 5%, 10% etc in some states in SS, i just laff at their ignorance.

About 70% of the votes in SS, are locked down in the hands of politicians, interest groups & and associations and these people dont come online to argue with people about their choice. The ones you see making noise everywhere are the remainants found mostly in urban areas and majority of them will not vote.

In Rivers state, Virtually all strong political parties and major interest groups are on the same page of supporting Tinubu, including the sentiments in the creeks and many riverine communities. There is a residual PDP group supporting Atiku and the street credibility in Urban areas majority backing Obi, followed by PDP. Do the maths yourself. Obi will not score more than 200k in Rivers, Same with delta state.
In Edo, Akwaibom and Crossrivers Obi will not score more than 100k votes in each, he wont get up to 50k in Bayelsa.

Apart from Lagos, where he will score like 300-400k votes originally coming from former PDP stronghold, He will not get up to 100k combined in the other SW states.

In the NE/NE, you must be having a laugh to think Obi will get half a million votes, in states like Kebbi, Zamfara, Borno, Katsina,Jigawa, Gombe, Yobe, Sokoto, Bauchi and Kano, Obi will not get a total of 50k votes combined. In Kaduna, he might get like 100k from Southern Kaduna finish, 50k from Taraba then like 20-30k in Adamawa.

1m in Northcentral 😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆 just de play bro, de play. In Niger and Kwara, LP cant get more than 10k votes each. They will do well in Benue and Plateau but not as much as people are thinking. These 2 states will almost be evenly shared anong the 3 major parties. Kogi Is strictly between PDP and APC, LP wont see 50k there. FCT total votes cast will be about 400k so do the maths.

For me, in the South LP will get between 2m to 2.2m, in the North his total votes wont exceed 1m.

Bookmark this analysis and refer in 1 week time

senatordave1:
Dont rule out anything.but the chances of ss sw turning out is very low.this sbm analysis is the best

Guy Obi will come distant 3rd. I know exactly what I am saying. He will get between 1m to 1.2m votes in the SE. About 800k in the SS, 300k in the SW and same in NC finish. In NE/NW Obi will not see more than 200k votes. You guys just overblow things due to noise on social media by those who live Abroad or dont have PVC. Didnt you see the turn out during Obi's rally?

MrEverest:
Are you man enough to bet on this? Or you're just another urchin spewing garbage as usual?

So, according to you, Obi won't get 25% in Delta? You really must have sawdust mixed with palm oil for brain.

FYI, Obi is winning Delta with wide margins. It's Atiku that will struggle to get 25% here. Tinubu is not even in contention here!

Obidients you have to insult to make your point

senatordave1:
Very possible if ss se records high turnout

Just de play

Aiel123:
PDP got 40% in Ogun in 2019, not 34%.

Please check again

Hopium:
I don't know how strong APC is in Delta, all I know was that PDP will win.

My projection was to counter the dude that said LP will get 94%.

Ok bro dont listen to all these online people most of them dont know what is on ground. PDP would have gotten 60-65%% of Delta state. But PDP is divided, Ibori camp of the PDP that is a very strong base is not supporting Atiku/Okowa, we dont know where their support will go to but it aint LP definitely. APC has gotten stronger in Delta state, and some of grassroot guys in the creeks are loyal to Tinubu. LP will not get 25% in Delta dont listen to all these online newbies in politics

Hopium:
So what's your projection?

PDP 45% , APC 35%, LP 20%.

Aiel123:
At the peak of Change mantra in 2015,PDP recorded about 40% in Ogun... even last election it still reached 40% but you think getting 25% now is out of place.

PDP got 34% in Ogun state the last time, and that was against Buhari. Not its Asiwaju, he will struggle to get 25% now, remember the igbos and SS that voted him in 2019 have now gone to Obi

Hopium:
Delta: PDP: 55%, LP: 25%, APC: 20%

Guy you must be joking to think PDP+LP will score 80% in Delta. Lol

senatordave1:
Very possible.tinubu will meet the spread while obi meets the highest votes

Obi will get the highest votes cast ? As in the highest votes in this election? SMH

Parrot69:
Yes.
I'm obidient but I know he isn't winning Kogi but be rest assured he's getting 25% on lock down!!

Obi wont get 25% anywhere in the north except Benue and Plateau

Parrot69:
All those States you said Obi isn't winning maybe be correct, but be rest assured he's getting 25% or above in all those states except for Kastina and Kebbi.
He will win Delta state. Takes this to the bank!

You mean Obi will get 25% in Oyo, Ogun, Borno, Yobe and Niger

Eboski:
Don’t mind them, My polling unit is at UCTH front gate , University of calabar teaching hospital front gate, come 25th I will upload my polling unit result , he go shock them. Tinubu can’t win CRS , even Ayade will not win cross river north…..make we they play

.

This Haaland is just Lukaku with better finishing