₦airaland Forum

I have never seen a Peter Obi supporter who can publicly articulate any logical sound and credible thought process behind their support for Obi. The only logical reason I can see for supporting Obi are 1) you are Ibo and he is Ibo …there is nothing wrong with that. 2) let’s just send a message to the political class that they can’t take us for granted so let’s vote for Obi

The problem with 1) is that most Ibos won’t say publicly their support for Obi is tribal. And the problem with 2) is that change for change sake without examining a man’s antecedents is the exact reason we ended up with the Buhari people are complaining about and secondly Obi is part of the same political class you despise.

Their inability to articulate a sound reason for supporting Obi is why they result to insults and abuse. There is nothing in Obi’s track record or his empty rhetoric to suggest he is the messiah they paint him out to be. In a space of 1 week, both him and his deputy could not answer when asked what their plans for security are. Both said trsut me or I cant reveal....what kind of answers are those? At least say you are going to recruit more policmen or soldiers, dont effing come on Tv and say "trust me"...trust you based on what? if you cannot solve insecurity, there is no economy and if you cant even say this is the plan even if you dont reveal all, then clearly your whole economic plan if you have one is a mirage!!!!

An Ibo reverend father resorting to abusing the opposition in his bid to support Obi just highlights my point. You would think a man of the cloth would be better schooled but that’s your sixth sense telling you the man has nothing to offer!!!

If you candidate was truly the messiah you won’t need to abuse the very people whose votes you need in a bid to bully people to agree with you. Just put his achievements and his plans for the country out there….. except they don’t stand up to scrutiny!!!!!

I just wish Ibos would have the balls to say “all the candidates have K leg so we are supporting our own”…simple!!!

aspabay:
Personally, I believe the CBN has failed in protecting the Naira.

Buhari has done more on infrastructure than probably any government since Shagari. However his obsession with Infrastructure (as if infrastructure on its own is all a country needs to grow) has blinded him to his abject failure on the following that in the short term has more or less nullified any of his infrastructure gains (long term the infrastructure benefits will be appreciated)

his 4 biggest economic failures.

1) failure to remove subsidy
2) failure to get at least 1 domestic refinery working in 7 + years
3) failure to sack Emefiele
4) failure to tackle insecurity ...you cant have economic growth amidst insecurity.

the good thing is his infrastructure projects are permanent and his policy errors can be reversed.

Michelle70:
so what? why are u fidgetting?


No polling unit has gathered up to 3k votes that i know of, so why the sudden masturbating cos of where ince decides to place polling unit.

the maximum no of registered voters at ANy PU is actually 750. it was reduced from 1000

the maximum number of registered voters in any polling Unit in Nigeria is 750. is it 750 votes that will make him president?



too much noise. is the polling unit inside his house or compund? if not every polling unit will always be near or next to somebody's house

WhizdomXX:
Obi's campaign hopes to win Kaduna, at least 2 states in the North east and 4 states in the North central, FCT included. How they plan on this I don't know, but time will tell.

I remember Fela Durotoye mapping out his strategy of how he would win the election. Moral of the story: Even the guy who has no chance of winning is never going to tell you he has no chance!

tope777:
And you should understand that the second largest population in the North after indigene are Ibos.

The second largest ethnic group everywhere outside ibo land are ibos, everybody knows that but "second largest population" on it's own is a meaningless stat because being second largest does not mean you have numbers in that state to make a difference. Ibos may be the second largest ethnic group in probably every state in Nigeria but the only places where Ibos have significant numbers to affect elections results are Lagos and possibly Abuja. Peter Obi will not get 25% in any state in the North so by definition he cannot win the election, no matter how you try and engibeer false popularity


Ibos are 15.2% of the national population (hausa 30% yoruba 15.5%, fulani 8%, tiv 2.4% etc etc ) ANyone with a functioning brain and a basic knowledge of mathematics, statistics and averages, will tell you outside therefore that it is technically impossible for the Ibos to alter the results of elections in all but a few states if any because by definition they do not have the numbers to dilute the locals particularly in states where certain parties have a stronghold!!!! Like I said ibos will always be seconf ethnic group because they are the only ones that leave their land to make a living outside their zones but it doesnt mean they have enough numbers.

If ALL the ibos in Nigeria moved to the North and voted only in the North, they still will not get 30% of the votes in the North. If ALL the ibos in Nigeria moved to the SW and voted only in the SW, they still will not get 50% of the votes in the SW. I know it's not that straightforward but i used that to illustrate that you overestimate the diaspora Ibo vote and its impact.

Finally, one thing Obi supporters fail to understand is that they are starting from zero in a race where the opponents are already miles ahead of them, so all these votes people are counting for Obi are simply votes to attempt to challenge his opponents who are not standing still. It would have been a different thing if Obi was running on PDP platform because then he inherits 10m votes to start with.

Mummyfour:
the people you thought were Igbos were carrying signboards on their heads indicating they are Igbos abi?.
Self denial is pathetic.

I was at an ATM machine yesterday and a man that looked very much an aboki and had a thick accent of a northerner was cursing Buhari and APC and also wishing them death, because of the insecurity in the north.
He said that going back to the north to see his people has been difficult and anytime his phone rings, he panics because he doesn't know the bad news they want to tell him from home.
He said he had to sell his farm land for a little change, bought okada and came to Abuja to ride it as an occupation.

He went on to plead with people to vote in Obi.
When I asked him if his people and his fellow northerners are aware of obi, he said yes and that he is sensitising them to vote OBI.

So where lies your conclusion that it is only Igbos that were chanting obi ?

We were not born yesterday, we know true northern crowds when we see them by the way they dress. Northern women don’t wear western clothes and how many people do you see in the crowd with northern traditional caps?

Google these 3 words: (any popular politician or party) + any state in the north + “rally” and select “images”. You will not find any image of any political gathering of the masses in the north by a reputable politician without spotting true northerners in the crowd with northern caps!!!!

Rent a crowd was an Ibo creation in 1996 under Kanu of YEA fame, we know this.

If you go to the north and the people in the crowd are wearing shirt and trouser, you are being deceived. They are either not northerners or not the type of northerners whose votes matter.

Penguin2:
I was drawn to tears when I saw this video.

Because the picture they’ve always painted all along is how a northerner will never have anything to do with an Igbo man.

I never envisaged that there would be a day that “five Hausa people” will be chanting an Igbo man’s name in the streets of the north.

But here we have a crowd; and it wasn’t even scheduled.

Thunder fire Lagos-Ibadan Expressway Media propaganda.

What I saw from this video and the nassarawa video were ibos resident in the North supporting Obi as expected. I don’t see northerners In any of the videos

Adiob200:
Hearing the news that kerosene is #800 per litre, and petrol is #200..and demand for petrol is higher than kerosene.. Why is it like that?

Because kerosene is deregulated

I hope they are paying taxes on the money they make from Nigerians

God1000:
She's a victim of Russia-Ukraine war

Hopefully she will regain her freedom soon, though she made a mistake by going to Russia with drugs

are they the ones that put the drugs on her?

frog12:
chai. he is still in senate but will retire in 2023. well he dey inside tiger cage now. before he leave there, all the money he steal he go spend on legal fees. na so oyinbo dey do am.

I just realised the passport my father had (blue passport) is not a diplomatic passport but an official passport...it has no diplomatic immunity. official passports and diplomatic passports are different...the Nigerian diplomatic passport is red in colour. Sometimes we say diplomatic passport simply because it isnt the green passport, when in reality it is an official passport and not a diplomatic passport.

it is quite possible that what Ekweremadu has is an official passport and not a diplomatic passport....in which case he has no immunity and can be arrested!!! That is the more likely scenario because I cant see how you arrest someone with a diplomatic passport and there wont be an unproar irrespective of what he is accused of.

I am sure this is something all Nigerians can agree upon!!! We dont want this nonsense in our country!!!

frog12:
the man is no longer in senate !
he is not a government official.

Jesus wept!!!

frog12:
then i bow to you. i lose this one. i did not know senate presidents and top nass officials keep their diplomatic passports for life. well, it doesn't matter since he dey JAIL!!
does he still retain immunity from prosecution?

It matters because it is against international law!!! it is not about Ekweremadu, it is a brazen insult to Nigeria!!!!

This is the case I was talking about

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Harry_Dunn

frog12:
in nigeria only top nass officials get diplomatic passports. ekweremadu has not been the senate president for more than 4 years. i don't know if he still has that passport. every nass member can not have it.

COPY and PASTE person!!

You are an ignorant fool!! My father was a top civil servant and he had a diplomatic passport!!!

Furthermore, while some govt officials like my father lose their diplomatic passports when they leave office , presidents, supreme court judges senate presidents, speakers and their deputies retain their diplomatic passports for life!!!!!

Besides, it is clearly states that Ekweremadu was traveling on a diplomatic passport!!!!

frog12:
he does not have diplomatic immunity. he is no longer the deputy senate president.
is he even still in the senate again?

You are ignorant like many Nigerians. Every body traveling on a diplomatic passport has diplomatic immunity…that’s the point of a diplomatic passport. Secondly every senator or house of rep member has diplomatic immunity whether you are senate president or speaker or deputy or an ordinary senator or house of rep member.

Many of you are very ignorant!!!!

Nigerians are funny people, some are saying you can’t get away with injustice in the Uk others are rejoicing because Ekweremadu made comments about Obi. However just like many slights against our country including the Twitter incidence or the current BBC taerrosism program saga, Nigerians fail to see the big picture.

There is something called diplomatic immunity. It is an insult to our nation and our sovereignty irrespective of the offense allegedly committed, that a member of parliament, talk less a former deputy senator is arrested and locked up for months. It is not done!!!!!!! I repeat it is not done!!!

A year or so ago the wife of an American diplomat killed someone with her car in the Uk….not the diplomat but the wife. She could not be charged because she enjoys diplomatic omatic immunity. She travelled back to the US without hinderance and refused to come back to the Uk or waive her immunity.

Be careful what you celebrate. Forget about the issue of human trafficking for now, under international law, Ekweremadu cannnot be arrested or tried unless he waived his immunity. If you celebrate what is happening to Ekweremadu, you are celebrating your own indignation. Why would any western country treat you with respect, when they abuse your leaders and you celebrate!!!!

It is against international law for a serving government official, talk less a parliamentarian traveling on a diplomatic passport to be arrested he 1st place….irrespective of the offense!!!!

these lecturers are not ready to go back to work. How can federal govt negotiate on behalf of states? how can you have an agreement binding on states when states are not participants in the negotiations?

pacesetting:
Who is Oshiomole in Buhari's government that you will believe what he says?

Your final statement is also wrong. The VP can never be the manager of the economy in any world.

How can you say Osinbajo has full control of the economy? On what basis?


He doesn't know anything about the present government.

my friend you are venturing into the realm of stupidity and I take my leave!!

uchaymart:
Dead on arrival. This one will just build hotel every where with the states fund....

He's obviously looking for money to complete his 10storey building hotel along custom office, secretariat road

Adexxi:
He won't win a single local govt. Yeye man

maybe but it means PDP will retain oyo state. On a side note, it's amazing how sons have the same traits of their fathers .....Adelabu just like Fani kayode. Like Sunny Ade sang, "omo o le jo baba, ka ma binu omo"...... "a man cannot resemble his father and you be annoyed with him".

thats why in yoruba land we ask "omo ta ni e" .... whose child are you, who are your parents?

pacesetting:
Who made the appointments for economic positions?

Who put the CBN governor there?

Did you see what he did the few times that failure was out of the country?

As long as Nigeria is concerned, a VP has little or no say on how the government is run.

you cannot eat your cake and have it. Dont hide behind the Vp has no power, the Vp is constitutionally chairman of the economic council but osinbajo was specifically given the stewardship of the economy over and above the powers of a Vp or the constitution....you need to watch oshiomole's interview earlier today, you cannot say somone is good for the economy and then say his period in charge of the economy is irrelevant. With the exception of monetary policy Osinbajo has full control of the economy, thats why it is his people in key economic agencies related to the economy particularly in relation to policy. I will accept that CBN has done a lot of damage to the economy but osinbajo cannot avoid the blame for his stewarship of the economy.

An economy has 2 parts fiscal and monetary..Osinbajo is fully in charge of the fiscal part of the economy and he has been a failure just like Emefiele his monetary counterpart!!!!!

This is why you look at a man's antecedents before you vote him into office. Osinbajo is a lwyer, a damned good one but he has never managed anything economic in his life!!!! His life careerand expertise is to speak English and interprete the law!!!

I agree it is Buhari's fault ultimately for putting the VP in charge of the economy but the point is he was in charge and he failed! lets not get distracted by shifting blame. The question is is osinbajo a good manager of the economy, the answer is clearly ...NO!!!!

pinkPUSSY:
Even Adamu sef is very confused on how to campaign for Tinubu...


All these rubbish wouldn't have happened if Tinubu had allowed Osibanjo to get the ticket..


One man's ambition has turned the entire party members and chieftains to charlatans and clowns...

Many of you fail to realise Buhari left the economy to Osinbajo (Oshiomole confirmed it this morning on Arise). Nigerians are too seduced by smooth talkers and dazzling qualifications like Osinbajo and OBi without actually interrogating their accomplishments for the role they are aspiring. If we are looking for Artorney general osinbajo is qualified but he has no glowing record in governance, security or business. Governance is not about speaking well!!!

Madmohamed123:
So innocent Northerner's should not do their business again in yeruba land

It is wrong to tag any northerner a terrorist and suspect to me this is harassment of Nigeria citizens

Yeruba should respect Nigeria citizens if this people is not illegal immigrants from Niger republic if they are Nigeria they should sue police for illegal detention

its a sensationalist headline. They were interrogated in line with the jailbreak in Abuja found to be normal citizens and released.

AcuraZDX:
David Hundeyin is the only journalist in Nigeria. Others are bloggers

Those fools on channels and Arise tv especially that slowpoke Rufai will be asking interviewees questions based on Twitter reports……quacks!!!

TMSMedia:
https://igberetvnews.com/1425028/giving-husband-styles-left-dont-think-can-marry-korra-video/

The kind of ramblings from women who think sex is what keeps a man at home. These are the things that have value to a man in a side chick not a wife.

Vote4ObiDatti:
You wasted an entire page writing nonsense!
Putting words together doesn't mean you have a working brain just as you have displayed with this rubbish you wrote. You ended up confusing yourself the more.

From your lame argument, which regions have been given block votes in recent times? It's SE/SS and NW. Now while SE and SS are most likely to give block votes again in favour of Obi, NW wouldn't be able to do so because of Atiku, Kwankwaso and APC factors. If there is going to be block votes in the region, it would be because Kwankwaso dropped and asked them to vote Atiku. Tinubu would never get block votes from NW when Atiku is contesting, NEVER!

SW hardly gives block votes since 2007, it only happened during the time of Awolowo and Falae. SW votes would be split totally, with all 3 major parties getting at least 25%. Obi will either win Lagos or score even with Tinubu.

In the NC and NE, their votes would be split as well just like in SW with majority of Christians voting for Obi.

Now, except you're a dunce of the first order, do the maths and tell yourself the truth on who the odds favour.

You are delusional if you think simply because Obi is on the ticket, PDP will suddenly become irrelevant in the SE and SS. You are living in fantasy land. He will not win ANY state in the SS!!!

Emotion is driving your talk not your brain, assuming you have a functional one. I am a Tinubu supporter but I am realistic enough to acknowledge that Lagos is under threat, if he manages to hold on to Lagos, it won’t be my much. You seem to devolved from reality!!!!

Not a lot will change because the country is made up of Nigerians. A leopard does not change its spots. What did not happen in 62 years is not going to happen in 5!!!!

Vote4ObiDatti:
You're a very poor analyst, or simply being delusional. South is even more United today, at least SE and SS and overwhelmingly in support of Obi. Obi is also likely to win Lagos or at least get 40%. Even in the other SW states Tinubu will win, other parties will still get significant votes.

Rigging has always been worse in the North. It was used by APC in 2015 and 2019. Even states that were ravaged by Boko Haram returned surreal numbers that could only be possible with rigging. Lagos is likely going to have more voters than Kano for the first time considering all the hype going on about it. SS states like Rivers and Delta now have huge voter population rivaling the so-called KKK states and they're going to vote for Obi. For the first time, the Christians are going to vote in one accord.

On the contrary, it is the North where parties will cancel each other. APC and PDP will checkmate each other in the muslim parts of NW and NE while Labour Party walks away with Christian votes in the Middle Belt. It would even be more disastrous for APC and PDP if Kwankwaso doesn't chicken out.

Nigerians are educated but many lack critical thinking skills. Sometimes you can win but your win is meaningless. What Peter Obi has done is to make victory in any state where he is a factor meaningless, because whoever wins that state will not win by much.

I dont know if your English or level of understanding is enough to comprehend what I just wrote without further explanation like I am talking to a primary school pupil. When it was a 2 horse race the margin of victory in most states was minimal and had little effect of the overall result. Like I said in a previous posts 11 states won by Atiku in 2019 was wiped out by Borno state alone, because those states were tight and his victories are marginal.

If a state has 1m votes and you win by 40%, and the other 2 get 36% and 24%, All you have contributed to your victory is 40,000 votes…..that’s all!!!!


Many of you people talking crap have never actually had a close look at the results of the last elections by state. There are states where the victory was only 3,000 votes but you won that state. You think your opponent is worried because you gained 3000 more votes when he has an uncontested state where he had 1m votes to himself? Oyo Osun, nassarawa, venue the margin of victory in those states was less than 10,000 votes. You can win 30 states by small margins and 1 state with a big margin for your opposition and he is in rock!!!

You know many of you either do not understand English, cannot think properly or do not understand basic mathematics or a combination of the above or all of the above.
Many of you do t understand what a split vote is and the difference between a 2 horse race and a 3 horse race.

Getting 40% in a state in itself means nothing in a 3 horse race. You need states that can give you 80% and above. Most states in the 2023 elections will cancel each other out and the winner will be the person who has states where he has 70%-80% of the votes!!!! Those are the states where you create a gap between yourself and your opponents.

Peter Obi May win Anambra and Enugu etc, but I can make you a guarantee, he will not get 70% in ANY state so by definition he can’t win the election.

In 2023 you will understand why Tinubu chose Shettima!!!!!

I will repeat what I have been saying for the last few days with people being obsessed with voter registrations figures……you don’t win elections by the total number of people who voted for you but the difference in the number of votes between you and your opponents. Plateau had more voters than Borno in 2019 but The difference in votes in Plateau was only 80k such that APCs victory in Borno which had less voters than Plateau wiped out PDPs gains in plateau and 10 other states combined!!!!!

Be a little more intelligent in your analysis, if you get 40% in a state and your opponent gets 39% you have not achieved anything!!! This is not governorship, this is a presidential race!!! You haven’t stopped him from the statutory 25% requirement and if he has states he controls with huge margins he will recover the slight loss in that state many times over and if you don’t have states where you can get those sorts of victories in a 3 horse race, you are dead and bustiers and your 40% victory is irrelevant !!!! People forget PDP won Ondo state in 2019. Of what use is that to PDP today?

BlazinGlory40:
NE and NW didn’t determine the presidency in 2011 and 2003 despite voting massively for buhari. Fact!!!

That was because 1) the south was United in terms of voting and there was a log of rigging. Try and use some context and sense when you see figures. The whole of the south voted PDP in 2003 and 2011. I talk only of 2019 because that is when we started seeing results that are more legitimate with less rigging.

In 2023, the south is going to be a wash, results will be tight and will cancel each other out. The election will be won by states where a party controls the state and there are effectively no opposition votes or when there is a significant opposition you still manage a sizeable defeat, this is only relevant in large voter turnout states, katsina, Borno, yobe, rivers, etc etc not states where all the parties are represented, have following and the result is tight because especially with 3 candidates, even if you win you will only gain, 5k, 30k, 60k, 100k votes….that’s nothing when there are states that will give some candidates a margin of victory of over 1m votes!!!

People are shouting about Lagos and 7m registered voters, Lagos votes will be split between Apc PDP and Labour, the gap between winner and loser may not be up to 100k. It doesn’t help or harm anybody

Agadinaagwuofe:
Your analysis is sooo on point but you failed to consider the major factor. The reason most of the SE votes usually comes with low numbers is because of voter's apathy and seemingly they don't have any dog in the race .

. Your argument though valid would be a strong if Peter Obi were contesting under PDP.

The problem Peter Obi has and the problem with your thesis is that you have not factored in the fact that Peter Obi is starting from 0. It would be different if all these new and dormant voters were additions to the existing 10million PDP vote base. As it is they are simply starter votes. All these votes do is to put him in the race.

It is like running a race from Lagos to Kano. Your opponent is in zaria you are in kaduna, you then decide to dump your driver and go back to Lagos and start afresh with your own car. You will require so much effort just to get to where you were before ie catching your former driver talk less the leader of the race!

Your former co driver in kaduna is only 230km from the finish line, the front runner in zaria is 150km from the finish line, you are in Lagos having to start all over again, finding a car, raising money for petrol, finding a co driver, planning the logistics for the race. The thing in your favour is that your rivals are currently having problems with their cars that has temporarily halted them ( a metaphor to capture all things In your favour eg, youth, Igbo support, voter registrations, Muslim Muslim, Wike etc) but the fact is all the efforts you are making at the moment is just to catch up. You need 860km of effort (ie voters) just to catch up with your closest rival and more than 940 to catch the leader of the race. Once they fix their cars they only need to cover 230km and 150km to win. So it is all well and good getting excited saying I have covered 200km, I have covered 300km (I.e I have Ibo voters), even if you cover 600km, you are not even in Abuja.

So understand the implications of Peter Obi starting from Zero against people already close to the finish line!!!! He require multiple times more effort than the people close to the finish line!!! For every km his opponents need to cover he needs to cover 8/9. There is only so far the dormant Ibo vote and youth can take him in 6 months. Not impossible but the odds are overwhelmingly against him.

Another thing I forgot to add, is that a high percentage of Obi voters and indeed new registrants are students...confirmed by INEC. These are people who are currently out of school and would have registered outside their school addresses but will be in school come election day. How many will leave their schools, Universities Polytechnics etc in order to vote. Dont forget these are students and you cant move around on election day!!!

Zonefree:
Peter Obi will get at least 85% of the votes from South East and South South.

North Central seems to be the decider of who becomes the President in 2023.

North east and northwest will determine the president. North central is the most inconsequential zone because elections in that zone are always tight and the votes are always split no party wins any election in the north central by a big margin.

Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Niger, Nassarawa and plateau. The only state that has electoral value is Niger state.

The difference between the winner and loser in these states in 2019 was as follows

Benue 9000 votes
Kogi 60,000
Kwara 170,000
Nassarawa 6,000
Plateau 70,000
Niger 400,000

It is the difference between you and your opponent that matters not the number of voters and as you can see, in the NC, only Niger state is important.

A state or region where the votes are shared is not a king maker state or region! Even if a PDP or OBI won all these states by the margins above, Borno alone with 900k vote difference for APC will wipe out the lead with change.