₦airaland Forum

the error some of these kindergarten politicians/analysts make is they assume the 2023 numbers are fully portable.

1. your votes as a presidential aspirant are not the same as your votes as a VP
2. Atiku's 6.7m votes are mostly PDP votes many of which will stay with PDp or the APC in cases where the governors have defected
3. obi has not gained any new support and he has definitely lost support. as of today he doesnt have the 6m votes he had in 2023, I reckon 4-5m.
4. Kwakwanso will lose some votes as a result of the division with the governor, talk less as a VP, he will pull even less if he isnt on the ticket.
5: Tinubu will gain votes because he doesnt have the same forces of 2023 working against him, he is the incumbent and he has consolidated his reach. he will get above 12m votes
6: there is the reality, that Obi as the flag bearer discourages northern votes and Obi as a VP will alienate some ibo votes as well as others who believe the south should finish 8yrs..

the best alternative is Atiku/Obi but IMHO it will still not be enough. I will be surprised if they get a combined 10m. Atiku/Obi will mean the Obi and kwakwanso factions will not campaign or come out to vote enthusiatically.

Let us not forget, a VP is a lame duck! ADC is an alliance of bitter rivals, whoever becomes VP will be sidelined by or at the very least be in constant conflict with whichever faction is president! Do not underestimate the rivalry of the people in ADC today, they hate each other, they are only together because thats the only chance they have to win. The same rivalry and hatred is what destroyed PDP...they are all ex PDP members. Some may even sabotage or engage in anti party activities if their faction doesnt get the ticket. For example what exactly does kwakwanso stand to gain in an Atiku presidency, what does he gain as VP to Obi?

Of all the so called human rights activists, Adejanju is probably the most unintelligent. He talks a lot……most of it nonsense!

You can’t abuse your way to power. Every election they complain about low turnover. It doesn’t occur to the opposition that the reason for the low turnover is that most are not happy with the incumbents but they are also not inspired by the opposition. Instead they keep thinking abusing them is an election strategy!

Another statement that makes you wonder how he became CBN governor! During GEJ’s time he made a ludicrous statement about missing oil revenues displaying a fundamental lack of understanding of the oil sector.

Gotocourt:
Refund Tinubu his money, e go b like wetin one Katsina Senator did to GEJ

Even I am only coming out to vote for Tinubu. All these nonsense people in APC Lagos can’t see my vote. Luckily for them the alternatives are hopeless so they’ll win again.

I said before that if Obi is not careful he won’t be on any ballot. Once they trap him inside ADC, he and his Obidients have nowhere to go. If you like vote for ADC, if you like don’t but you are not a 3rd force!

How foolish can you be to enter a coalition with 6m votes without securing certain assurances?

helinues:
Who is she please?

She can't be more than one of the bitter Obidients that have refused to be making sensible comments

I am still wondering how some people allowed themselves to be so chronically bitter because of political discussion when they are just a mere spectator not the real player

Modified: Any slag mentioning na straight blocking. Ain't gat no time for una nonsense trolling and bully

She is one of those girls at events that checks your name against the guests list and ushers you to your table.

Parachoko:
If Gbenga Daniel does not agree to the consensus, a direct primary election will have to be held

That’s the law!

Xxxxxxxxx.

NATIONALPASTOR:
Okowa is a slowpoke full stop.

This same idiot who claimed he is Igbo when he was vice presidential candidate to Atiku Abubakar in PDP.

The same political hooligan will still come back someday and claim he's from Yoruba.

Okowa is a big fool.

https://www.arise.tv/im-from-delta-state-and-definitely-an-igbo-man-says-pdp-vice-presidential-candidate-okowa/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=ReviveOldPost&fbclid=IwdGRjcARVw4xleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZAwzNTA2ODU1MzE3MjgAAR46byDvZGwUzoBRfHUjsiQUJACynZRYJ1OXIsyHSHftGfBv2uDc9RCSBkC9lg_aem_ldQEZbJ0fu1IcMWYHX93NA

The only fools are those who believe the creation of ANY state can ever happen and don’t understand the politicians are using the state creation as a vote harvesting tool. They know the process for creating states and they know it is impossible.

This is not a giant python

Nothing like Ibadan-ijebu express way. It’s Ibadan-ijebu road. It is a face me I face you road. Single carriage road!

Jakarta:
Can you imagine, Nigeria crude oil, has become more of a curse than a blessing.

Nigerian crude is more expensive than US crude. It makes sense to buy us crude for $90 and sell our own crude for $110.

Kwakwanso knows he can’t be president. He is just using Obi to keep his name relevant nationally till 2031. I have said it many times on Nairaland: serious Northern politicians are targeting 2031 when Atiku will be out of the picture and they will have uncontested southern votes and no “big name” in the North to contend with.

Kwakwanso in targeting 2031 and he is using Obi. No serious northerner will agree to be a deputy to Obi. Even Datti, Obasanjo had to beg when all Northerners turned him down.

Kwakwanso and everyone in ADC are just playing tricks with Obi. They don’t rate him, they only want his votes but not at the cost of handing him the presidency.

Irony1:
So why the discriminatiom against GRV?

Allegedly, Gbadebo outrightly disrespected and mocked Yorubas, used a slur word against Yorubas, admitted he can’t speak the language and doesn’t think in Yoruba and at the same time expressed support for IPOB. That’s where his problems with Yorubas in Lagos started.

It is even said his ancestors are not actually Yorubas but returneee ibo slaves who settled in Lagos and adopted Yoruba names. Behavior of people like Betty Akeredolu has not helped the cause of politicians with ibo wives. His mother is ibo, his wife is ibo. He seemed to identify more with his ibo roots.

This one still doesn’t understand he is just a pawn!

seunmsg:
Like Binani like Peter Obi. Two desperadoes who don’t understand how to play politics. They don’t understand loyalty, timing and patience in politics. They jump around every election cycle just the way prostitutes jump from one man to another.

APC gave Binani the platform to become a Senator and then contest for governor. In fact, when the contest for the APC governorship ticket was becoming very toxic between him and Ribadu, it was Tinubu who stepped in to prevail on Ribadu to backdown. Still, that woman went to support Atiku in the general election. Now, she has lost out completely because even in the Atiku camp, they can’t trust her. That’s the price for being a betrayal.

They will turn round aand say it is the work of APC and their fans will echo that narrative.

I have said it many times the problem of the opposition are their supporters. They see their leaders behaving anyhow and make excuses for them and because of that they never change their ways because they know whatever they do they can count on their support.

Obi won’t get the ADC presidential or VP ticket. It will be Atiku/Amaechi.

This Jandorr is funny o!

Governor lohun lohun

This Jandorr is funny o!
B

De

chinchum:
someone that understands. It reeks of small mindedness to not want to borrow with such weak infrastructures. We have to deepen the economy and attract more development that will expand revenue/income.

Even the Lagos state to me is vastly underperforming. They are just one eyed men in a country of blind states. It’s why you will never hear me praise Lagos state. Lagos state with a GDP of $100b nominal and $250b (ppp) should be generating nowhere less than $10b in IGR. That is enough to finance (via borrowing) mind blowing infrastructure projects not that for 20yrs we will continue to hear about lekki airport and 4th mainland bridge. The trains they are implementing now had been in the works across at least 3 governors! Wike has only been in Office for 3 years, see then roads he is building! Ordinary Epe to Lekki, see how long theyve been on it, ordinary resurfacing of lekki express way they turn into miracle work! Lagos has the smallest land area, good roads should be the least of its problems.

The incompetence and lack of vision of political leadership across the country is what makes People like Tinubu look like a genius. He is a genius politically but administratively, he is ordinary! There is nothing he is doing that is exceptional. I always say, everything Awolowo did in western region was accomplished in 7years! Our problem is the alternatives are way below his level. Country of the blind…..

Actually we are!

The mineral resources we have are largely overstated and many are commercially unviable, our population (a resource) are either largely uneducated or poorly educated such that the majority are only useful for consumption. Our crude has one of the highest cost of production in the world. When people compare us to Saudi or Libya they don’t realize it costs $2 to get the crude out of the ground there, whereas in Nigeria it is up to $40. A lot of the minerals we tout are either poor grade or commercially unviable. Our main resource is agriculture but we are very inefficient in its production and bedeviled with insecurity and land use issues.

Lets take the example of Ajaokuta. To produce steel you need iron ore, coal and limestone. Did I hear you say we have all that? The largest deposits of iron ore is in Agbaja but it is high in phosphorus which makes steel brittle. So we turned to Itakpe iron ore. The problem with Itakpe is that the iron content is very low. Next coal, yes we have coal but our coal is non coking coal and therefore of no use in steel production. The last raw material is limestone and we have an abundance of limestone which is why we have many cement factories. This example is to illustrate that if our touted minerals were commercially viable, the factories would exist and producing. Ajaokuta is not working largely because you have to go through many steps to produce the steel at the end of which it would likely be internationally uncompetitive. As soon as lithium because useful factories sprung up. If these minerals we claim to have were commercially viable, private capital would finance the factories to put them to use.

I saw a brilliant interview by Bolaji Balogun (I think)

Our current infrastructure (roads, airports, sea ports etc) was built when our GDP was $10-40b. If you look at our current infrastructure, they were built in the 60s-80s. Apapa port was built in 1913 and last modernized in the 1970s, Tin Can was built in the 1980s, MMA was built in the 1970s. Our current GDP is ~$350B and we have a stated objective to grow it to $1T. We are not going to achieve that with infrastructure designed for a $40b economy and a population less then 60m. Even our current $350b economy is already straining the infrastructure built for at best a $100b economy. If you dont have the cash and are credit worthy enough to secure infrastructure loans, you must borrow. It would be criminal not to.

It’s the main reason why Lagos is outpacing other states. It has the highest debt, it borrows for trains, deep sea ports etc and it’s GDP grows whereas those regional states who see borrowing as heresy see mass exodus of their industries and professionals leaving their states occupied by native doctors farmers and okada riders. A lot of Lagos residents would willingly exit Lagos if only states would have the vision to borrow to build the infrastructure necessary to attract them.

The debt in the SW is why people and businesses troop in to the SW everyday and those trooping to the SW are the ones whose taxes will pay the debt.

The small debt in the SE is why people are leaving the SE and why they don’t have high income tax payers to pay their debts.

Nobody can build infrastructure on IGR, you have to borrow. The more you borrow to build infrastructure , the more you attract businesses who employ high income tax payers. If you refuse to be bold and borrow, your residents will remain farmers, native doctors, market women, touts and okada riders. Those people don’t pay any meaningful tax (if at all) that can develop your state.

There are employees who earn N40m a year, that’s 10m a year PAYE tax and IGR for your state……1 employee! 1,000 okada riders will not give you that in IGR. But tou will never smell the companies that employ such workers unless you borrow to build infrastructure.

Ishilove:
They are distracted with the more pressing matters of bombing towns, toppling governments, kidnapping seating presidents and measuring deeks with middle eastern terrorism sponsoring nations.

Yo, JimmySwaggart, I sight you

The only thing the Americans have to offer any country is terrorism, spying and resource exploitation and funding NGOs to create havoc or promote American values like same sex marriage etc. Do you see the US involved in anything that actually benefits your country. Are they the ones involved in building your roads, airports, sea ports etc? Besides offshore Oil, do you see them involved in any industry that creates jobs?

Bwala always talks like a full that’s why he was humiliated by the Aljazeera interviewer! There is no great achievement in having an economy growing faster than the Uk or Us. Mature economies don’t post significant growth rates.

Comedians! Your constitution says you must be a member for at least 2 yrs before you can occupy an executive position in the party. If you’re occupying elective positions in contravention of your constitution, you have no locus to amend the constitution. Anything you do is illegal!

We know the people you are talking about. We also want them to do well so they stop coming to our side of the country. Unfortunately these people can’t prosper in their side so they will end up in our side and in Ghana.

Usmanovic95:
If he was eligible to contest as senator of both states, can he also contest as governor of Lagos in coming years?

That’s an interesting question. For sure, nothing stops him from being a governor in 2 states…..so long as it is 1 term in each state. However, I just had a quick glance at the constitution and from the little I read, there might be a loophole in the constitution.

I think the language is ambiguous. What exactly are the definitions of “a state” and in 182(1) and “such office” in 182(1)b? Does “a state” mean a particular state or any state?


In any event it is very unlikely to happen.

UzorIyke:
I don't know much about him, but how did he served as a senator for two different states, is it possible

because states are artificial creations and in the process of creating states, certain communities were split up such that people have ancestry in both states. Colonial Lagos was a very small area limited to Lagos island, ijora, etc. 93% of the land that is Lagos state today is made of up by annexing areas from the Egbas, the Ijebus and the Aworis. For example, Epe was a satelite town and "port" ancestrally under the domain of the Awujale of Ijebu before the creation of Lagos state and still exercises ownership and control over portions of Epe land despite Epe now being in Lagos state and Ijebu being in Ogun. Lekki eastwards towards Epe and beyond are Ijebu people, so also ikorodu. In Yayi's case, sections of Awori land was carved out of the western region such that you have |Aworis in Lagos and Ogun.

Another common occurrence is when ancient families had large land holdings outside their village of "main origin". What tended to happen is recognizing the family ownership of the land, a member of that family is appointed by the traditional ruler as the baale of that land/community. Now you have a family that has ancestry from 2 separate areas that may eventually fall into 2 different local governments, senatorial zones or states.

As for Yayi, I expect him to be a disaster or at best mediocre. To me he is just a level above Ade Dancer!

MrEar:
Iranians just keep impressing me. Its really sad that this peaceful country with its courageous and united citizens is making some people not to sleep well at night.

the US is revealing their true colors.

EmmaSeun12:
Our Reporter

Reconstruction work on the critical Sagamu–Ijebu Ode–Ore–Benin Expressway is reaching an advanced stage, with noticeable achievements being recorded daily on key sections of the highway. The Federal Government’s intervention is aimed at restoring the strategic route that links the South-West to the South-South and South-East regions of the country.

The project, approved by President Bola Tinubu, covers a total stretch of over 250 kilometres, beginning from the Sagamu Interchange and extending to Ijebu East Local Government Area of Ogun State. The road is considered one of Nigeria’s busiest economic corridors.

Work officially commenced in October 2024 following an inspection tour by the Minister of Works, Dave Umahi, alongside Ogun State Governor, Dapo Abiodun. The inspection underscored the urgency of rehabilitating the deteriorating highway to improve safety and economic activities.

Currently, massive reconstruction is ongoing across several sections of the expressway, with a focus on rigid pavement using reinforced concrete for enhanced durability. Notable progress has been recorded between Sagamu Interchange and Ijebu Ode, where one carriageway is often open to traffic while work continues on the other.

Construction efforts have intensified, with over 10 kilometres of newly completed sections already visible around Ijebu Ode. Work is also steadily advancing toward Ore and further down to Benin, reflecting significant momentum on the project.
Motorists and commuters using the highway have commended the Federal Government for the quality and pace of the reconstruction. Many noted improvements such as durable concrete pavement, proper drainage systems, and proposed installation of solar-powered lighting along the route.

Despite the ongoing construction, traffic flow has remained relatively smooth, although occasional slowdowns are experienced around active work zones. Traffic management measures have helped minimize disruptions for road users.

As the project approaches completion, finishing works such as lane markings and final surface treatments are underway. The Federal Government has reiterated its commitment to delivering the Lagos–Sagamu–Benin Expressway project on schedule, raising hopes for improved connectivity and safer travel across the regions.

nearing completion ke? are you sure about this? are they also working towards Shagamu from the Ore/Benin end? Because as at last week the construction from Shagamu end had just reached the Ijebu-ode junction and that is about 35KM