₦airaland Forum

yomi96:
trash
He said nothing but the truth. The only reason why elrufai won was because of the bandwagon effect of the dullard, which alot of people saw as the messiah.

That's exactly the same basis on which Shehu Sani himself was elected a senator for the first time in his life. This time, Sani has himself thrown that lifeline away, and will be rejected during the next election.

On the other hand, El-Rufai will still ride on Buhari's popularity and some of his own good works as governor and most likely be voted back into office. Capiche?

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dahmie2013:
Saw this pics & felt I should share! How do u feel? For me, its dis-heartening.

Hmm.

Somehow, we will soon get permanently out of the vicious cycle depicted in here, The Almighty willing.

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eddyhanson:
LAI MOHAMED HAVE A PHD IN LYING, AND OSIBANJO IS A PROFFESOR FOR LYING

What are the lies, if one may ask?

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gabbylight:
Man, u get time ooo. I believe these people commenting and analysing are those type who never left there comfort to anywhere and also interact with the masses.
I personally conversed votes for buahri with both my resources and power and made sure they voted for him. but now the story have changed, not because anybody advised me or talk me to dislike him but I used my discretion. Atiku I hate like shit but buhari is killing my confidence in him day by day that's why I think he should just go and rest, at least he tried. Atiku is a thief yes but buhari is not helping matters atall

Unfortunately, it's not the votes of people of your thinking that will help win elections in 2019, because your number is relatively small, to be quite honest.

The numbers that will win elections belong to the ordinary man on the streets who don't give a hoot about the way you see things - and they're in the relatively large majority. They include those who see Buhari as a messiah who can do no wrong, or who see him as having liberated the North East from the stranglehold of the dreaded Boko Haram terrorist group, just to give two examples, believe them or not.

Their kind of mindset is the same with those - particularly apparently from the South East - who're saying even if Atiku is a certified armed robber of the Central Bank and despite all the corruption aura and baggage hanging around him, they'd remain Artikulated. Hehehe.

In a nutshell, nothing politically fundamental or significant has really changed since 2015.

But, what do I know?

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FrankHodgins:
Democracy more than any other political system on the planet and throughout history hinges on a simple premise which is that legitimacy and power for any political leadership is granted soley by ‘the people’ who grant such legitimacy and power through their legal right to vote. In that regard it is evident to infer that democracy is a ‘game of numbers’ and that in any democracy ‘the votes’ are the ‘currency of the day’, as ones ability to understand and gather the support of the people which transcends to votes from the people majority, is the key to winning and maintaining ones legitimacy and power. Such premise is not loss on a gradually improving representative democracy such as that of Nigeria and are highlighted in the content of this article which is an extract from THE 2011&2015 NIGERIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DESCRIPTIVE ANALYTICS REPORT developed by Franelta&Basbra Data Limited, which aims to enlighten the reader about the nature of the electoral landscape in Nigeria and why an understanding of the electoral numbers and patterns matter.
The Nigerian electoral landscape in the report encompasses the following which are first the nature of the electorate, second the criteria for which they vote by, and third the patterns in which they vote. The nature of the Nigerian electorate is a wide mix of a multi-ethnic and multi-religious population, who are categorized in political entities which are 6 geopolitical zones, 36 states plus the Federal Capital Territory and 774 local government areas (LGAs). Such electorate make voting decisions based on various voting criteria which can be grouped into the Identity, Issues, Institutions and Personality voting criteria and a combination of the nature of the electorate and their voting criteria provides voting patterns which evolve or stay the same over different election cycles.
One important Institutions criteria which is taken into consideration by the electorate are the political parties and its candidates who are in constant canvasing mode for the votes of the electorate during election seasons. Given the diverse nature of the Nigerian electorate political parties usually have to cast a wide tent to accommodate the multiplicity of interest of the electorate and in terms of winning the presidency such political tent has to be wider for such political parties to be successful. In recent electoral times the Nigerian political infrastructure has gradually developed into a strong two party system, between the All Progressives Congress (APC) formed in 2013 and the dominant People’s Democratic Party (PDP) formed in 1998, right before the dawn of the fourth republic and return to civilian rule in Nigeria. These parties both have the widest tent in the country and have been the most successful in elections since the return to democracy in 1999.
The content of the report is focused heavily on the quantitative viewpoint of the electorate, and as such provides voting data, patterns and graphic elaborations for the two major political parties in Nigeria over the last two election cycles of 2011 and 2015 respectively. While the APC didn’t exist as a single party in the 2011, a simulation was performed in this report with the voting data of the three major opposition parties which contested separately in the 2011 elections, and as a unified APC in the 2015 elections, those parties being the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP), and the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) respectively.
Detailed in the full analytics report are various insights such as geopolitical zone profiles, voting pattern criteria, voting data points, voting pattern diagrams and graphic elaborations of the electorate of Nigeria, with heavy focus being placed on the number of registered voters over the last two election cycles, voter turnout, total votes cast and the vote share for each of the two parties noted above. These data points, patterns and elaboration help provide insights to each party’s strongholds both from a geopolitical zone and a state by state perspective, as well as each party’s presence in swing zones and states, who made different choices over the course of both election cycles. Strongholds zones and states are classified in this report as zones and states where a party gathered a minimum vote share of approximately 50% of the two election cycles and swing zones and states are classified as zones and states which flipped from one party to another, over the course of the last two election cycles.
REPORT HIGHLIGHTS
These are some insights gained along country, geopolitical zones and state lines;
COUNTRY-WIDE
1. The number of registered voters dropped by 8.3% from 73,528,040 voters in 2011 to 67,422,007 voters in 2015.
2. Voter turnout dropped from 52.0% in 2011 to 43.7% in 2015, with an average of 47.8% over both election cycles.
3. The total votes cast dropped by 23.0% from 38,209,978 votes in 2011 to 29,432,083 votes in 2015.
4. The APC won 13 states in the 2011 elections (ACN: 1, CPC:12) and improved its win tally in 2015 to 21 states. The PDP won 24 (23+FCT) states in the 2011 and was only able to win 16 (15+FCT) states in 2015.
5. The APC vote share of total votes cast increased from 39.3% in 2011 to 52.4% in 2015, while vote share for the PDP dropped from 58.9% in 2011 to 43.7%.

NORTH-WEST (NW)
1. The North-West is ranked 1st on average in terms of number of registered voters, 1st in terms of total votes cast, and 2nd in terms of voter turnout among the 6 geopolitical zones over the 2011 and 2015 elections.
2. Its number of registered voters dropped by 11.3% from 19,803,689 in 2011 to 17,570,066 in 2015.
3. Voter turnout in North-West dropped from 54.5% in 2011 to 49.8% in 2015, with an average of 52.2% over both election cycles.
4. Total number of votes cast in the North-West dropped by 19.0% from 10,800,076 in 2011 to 8,747,921 in 2015.
5. All 7 states in the North-West were won by the APC in both the 2011 (i.e. CPC:7 states won) and 2015. APC vote share of total vote cast increased from 66.8% in 2011 to 81.3% in 2015, while vote share for the PDP dropped from 31.4% in 2011 to 15.3% in 2015.
6. Based on electoral performance over both election cycles the North-West can be considered a APC stronghold geopolitical zone.

NORTH-EAST (NE)
1. The North-East is ranked 4th on average in terms of the number of registered voters, 4th in terms of total votes cast and 4th in terms of voter turnout among the six geopolitical zones over the 2011 and 2015 elections.
2. Its number of registered voters dropped by 16.9% from 10,749,059 in 2011 to 8,933,630 in 2015.
3. Voter turnout in North-East dropped from 54.2% in 2011 to 42.4% in 2015, with an average of 48.3% over both election cycles.
4. Total number of votes cast in the North-East dropped by 35.1% from 5,826,444 in 2011 to 3,783,920 in 2015.
5. Of the 6 states in the North-East, 4 states were won by the APC in the 2011 (i.e. CPC:4 states won) and 5 states were won in 2015 whereas for the PDP 2 states were won in 2011 and only 1 state was won in 2015. APC vote share of total vote cast increased from 67.1% in 2011 to 75.3% in 2015, while vote share for the PDP dropped from 31.5% in 2011 to 21.1% in 2015.
6. Based on electoral performance over both election cycles the North-East can be considered a APC stronghold geopolitical zone.

NORTH-CENTRAL (NC)
1. The North-Central is ranked 3rd on average in terms of number of registered voters, 3rd in terms of total votes cast and 5th in terms voter turnout among the six geopolitical zones over the 2011 and 2015 elections.
2. Its number of registered voters dropped by 9.6% from 11,627,490 in 2011 to 10,507,028 in 2015.
3. Voter turnout in North-Central dropped from 47.7% in 2011 to 40.8% in 2015, with an average of 44.2% over both election cycles.
4. Total number of votes cast in the North-Central dropped by 22.7% from 5,546,159 in 2011 to 4,286,850 in 2015.
5. Of the 7 states in the North-Central, 1 state was won by the APC in the 2011 (i.e. CPC:1 states won) and 3 states were won in 2015 whereas for the PDP 6 states were won in 2011 and 4 states were won in 2015. APC vote share of total vote cast increased from 37.8% in 2011 to 56.2% in 2015, while vote share for the PDP dropped from 60.9% in 2011 to 40.0% in 2015.
6. Based on electoral performance over both election cycles the North-Central can be considered a swing geopolitical zone for both the APC and PDP.

SOUTH-WEST (SW)
1. The South-West is ranked 2nd on average in terms of number of registered voters, 5th in terms of total votes cast and 6th in terms voter turnout among the six geopolitical zones over the 2011 and 2015 elections.
2. Its number of registered voters dropped by 5.7% from 14,296,163 in 2011 to 13,484,620 in 2015.
3. Voter turnout in South-West increased from 32.3% in 2011 to 33.7% in 2015, with an average of 33.0% over both election cycles.
4. Total number of votes cast in the South-West dropped by 1.6% from 4,613,712 in 2011 to 4,539,447 in 2015.
5. Of the 6 states in the South-West, 1 state was won by the APC in the 2011 (i.e. ACN:1 states won) and 5 states were won in 2015 whereas for the PDP 5 states were won in 2011 and only 1 state was won in 2015. APC vote share of total vote cast increased from 37.3% in 2011 to 53.6% in 2015, while vote share for the PDP dropped from 60.4% in 2011 to 40.1% in 2015.
6. Based on electoral performance over both election cycles the South-West can be considered a swing geopolitical zone for both the APC and PDP.
SOUTH-EAST (SE)
1. The South-East is ranked 6th on average in terms of number of registered voters, 6th in terms of total votes cast, and 3rd in terms of voter turnout among the six geopolitical zones over the 2011 and 2015 elections.
2. Its number of registered voters dropped by 0.8% from 7,577,212 in 2011 to 7,513,033 in 2015.
3. Voter turnout in South-East dropped from 67.0% in 2011 to 37.5% in 2015, with an average of 52.2% over both election cycles.
4. Total number of votes cast in the South-East dropped by 44.5% from 5,073,321 in 2011 to 2,815,348 in 2015.
5. All 5 states in the South-East were won by the PDP in both the 2011 and 2015. APC vote share of total vote cast increased from 1.3% in 2011 to 7.0% in 2015, while vote share for the PDP dropped from 98.3% in 2011 to 87.6% in 2015.
6. Based on electoral performance over both election cycles the South-East can be considered a PDP stronghold geopolitical zone.
SOUTH-SOUTH (SS)
1. The South-South is ranked 5th on average in terms of number of registered voters, 2nd in terms of total votes cast, and 1st in terms of voter turnout among the six geopolitical zones over the 2011 and 2015 elections.
2. Its number of registered voters dropped by 0.6% from 9,474,427 in 2011 to 9,413,630 in 2015.
3. Voter turnout in South-South dropped from 67.0% in 2011 to 55.9% in 2015, with an average of 61.4% over both election cycles.
4. Total number of votes cast in the South-South dropped by 17.2% from 6,350,266 in 2011 to 5,258,597 in 2015.
5. All 6 states in the South-South were won by the PDP in both the 2011 and 2015. APC vote share of total vote cast increased from 3.2% in 2011 to 8.0% in 2015, while vote share for the PDP dropped from 96.4% in 2011 to 89.7% in 2015.
6. Based on electoral performance over both election cycles the South-South can be considered a PDP stronghold geopolitical zone.
STATES
1. The state ranked 1st on average over both election cycles in terms of number of registered voters is Lagos (SW) and the state ranked 37th is Bayelsa (SS).
2. The state ranked 1st on average over both election cycles in terms of voter turnout is Bayelsa (SS) and the state ranked 37th is Lagos (SW).
3. The state ranked 1st on average over both election cycles in terms of total votes cast is Kano (NW) and the state ranked 37th is Ekiti (SW).
4. The top ranked states on average in terms of number of registered voters are Lagos (SW), Kano (NW), Kaduna (NW), Kastina (NW), and Oyo (SW) respectively.
5. The bottom ranked states on average in terms of number of registered voters are Cross River (SS), Ebonyi (SE), FCT (NC), Ekiti (SW) and Bayelsa (SS) respectively.
6. The top ranked states on average in terms of voter turnout are Bayelsa (SS), Rivers (SS), Akwa Ibom (SS), Delta (SS), and Imo (SE) respectively.
7. The bottom ranked states on average in terms of voter turnout are Oyo (SW), Edo (SS), Ondo (SW), Ogun (SW) and Lagos (SW) respectively.
8. The top ranked states on average in terms of total votes cast are Kano (NW), Kaduna (NW), Rivers (SS), Lagos (SW) and Kastina (NW) respectively.
9. The bottom ranked states on average in terms of total votes cast are Kwara (NC), Ebonyi (SE), Bayelsa (SS), FCT (NC) and Ekiti (SW) respectively.
10. Despite Lagos State being ranked 1st in terms number of registered voters, and 4th in terms of total votes cast, at an average voter turnout of 28.8% over both election cycles, Lagos ranks 37th out of 37 states (36 states +FCT) in terms of voter turnout. Such dismal turnout highlights a huge underutilization of votes registered in the richest voting state in the country.
Download full report here: https://www.franeltaandbasbra.com/publications/the-2011-and-2015-nigerian-presidential-election-descriptive-analytics-report/

I'm having to quote this in full, so I can easily get to it later, and possibly put the statistic in a spreadsheet for future reference.

That being said, what jumps out to me the most in the statistic presented, is the huge +-45% drop in valid votes cast in the South East in 2015, compared to 2011. This drop is nearly twice as much as that recorded for the nearest other zones with drops.

I can ascribe this drop to one major thing: The introduction and use of the Card Reader. I also make bold to say that the number of valid votes in the South East will still hover around the same 2.8 million in 2019, as recorded for the geopolitical zone in 2015.

In addition, I will expect the number of valid votes recorded in the South South during the 2019 elections to drop appreciably, compared to the number in 2015, which hardly dropped from the 2011 percentage. This anticipated drop in 2019 will be due to the use of the Card Reader being expected to be more strictly enforced in the creeks, from where the huge numbers of recorded votes would traditionally come in the zone. This will be even more so if the newly amended Electoral Act - as presently drafted with the stricter use of the Card Reader for accreditation and collation - is signed into law before the 2019 elections.

But, what do I know?

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mackay37:
...The Yobe Senator, who said he’s not running for elective position, encouraged the youths to read his book “poorlitics” as the contents would guide them to take power from the analogue old politicians.

https://www.independent.ng/2019-we-cant-win-pdp-even-with-massive-rigging-apc-senator-bukar-ibrahim/amp/

LOL... typical of those not running for re-election. The senator probably lost out a bid to get his party's nomination and re-election ticket.

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hucienda:
Is this recent?

No, that was during Jonathan's time, as part of Jonathan's campaign of calumny strategy, by the then politicized army. Those officers have since been retired from the army after Jonathan lost his re-election bid in 2015.

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kcmichael:
Presidential Result 2019

APC =20,560,578
PDP=8,543,700


Pmb declared winner

Wailers commit suicide
Wailer jump into lagoons
Weeping and gnashing of teeth


If you quote me ur mama Toto go sour

Hmm, seer alert. (Excepting for the uncouth addition at the end.)

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allanphash7:
They will both fail

You got the expression almost right.

The real thing is: They will fail together.

Having said that, I think Amosun will be insane to work against Buhari/APC. If he does, his now rather fragile standing in Ogun politics will end up being obliterated.

But, what do I know?

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GoodGovernance:
Only mischief makers are still asking for Buhari's certificate.


https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/175777-cambridge-university-provides-details-buharis-wasc-results.html

I'm not in the least surprised; some people have to hold on to something biko, no matter how fickle the straw is.

Good luck to all the 70+ contestants for the office of the President of The Federal Republic of Nigeria in a few months.

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Gorem2013:
Another evidence Atiku is a packaged fraud

What happened to income from private university

What about income from Intel and other companies claimed to have employed 50,000 employees

So the so called business man who is coming to turn Nigeria to Dubai cannot even manage company with 50,000 employees to good profit but want to manage Nigeria with her 190m population.

Consider this;

60m in 3 years yet able to share $5k per delegate @ PDP conversation in PH that's $2m already for 4,000 delegates

Unspecified dollar for Kukah, Oyedelo, Gunni to beg Obasanjo. For Obj to agree a million dollar donated.

(Remember no more payment of salary of obj farm employees through FG and more than 50%of farm already closed permanently. The recent was the one in Ibadan sealed by OYO state. So Obj need every donation, even from crooks, not minding whether God will forgive him or not)

Then consider million already spent on social media and brown envelope mainstream media rightly tagged 'enemy of the people' by Trump. When you hear Atiku won a poll on tweeter, it means $100k shared to about 10k social media miscreants and hungry bloggers of Ipob extraction.

The summary, Atiku is incompetent, a failure in business and a packaged fraud meant to destroy and loot Nigeria.

Savage.

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midolian:
He may choose to decamp with a million followers..it's his business

As for me and my family, even though we don't have voters card, we are Atikulating Obidiently

No Epic pun intended.

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Timil:
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Those who should be shouting marginalization are the Tivs, Nupe, Ibibio, Kanuri and the other minority tribes not the Igbos.

Very well said; Your head dey there...

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6Ebisco:
Before I am accused of being cheeky and lacking in respect, let me state my innocence as well as protest before the accusation sets in that I am not the one who originally labelled former President Obasanjo and his erstwhile Vice President and PDP’s present flag bearer for the forthcoming presidential elections, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, as witches o! Yes, I am the scion of warriors who danced with their backs, who uprooted Iroko trees with their bare hands and drank streams and rivers dry, but of a truth, I am not bold enough to label these men as such, I am a properly bred gentleman with respect for elders.

Rather, it is the oenophile and juju music lover in Olagunsoye Oyinlola, one time military administrator for Lagos State and former civilian governor of Osun State that had the temerity to describe the duo as witches when sometime in January, 2009, Abubakar paid what looked like a “mend the fence” visit to his former boss, Obasanjo at his “ No dogs, No journalists” abode in Otta Farm. Oyinlola, not only called them witches, he even stated that these witches were engaged in a dance and that it was only a brave fellow that would sit out such a dance!

So you see, yours sincerely is indeed innocent of any accusation of starting a witch hunt or writing another Malleus Malleficarum (Hammer of the Witches) matter of fact, these men were present that fateful day when Oyinlola gleefully gave members of the press such information, they even gave broad smiles and grins, exposing their protruding stomachs for photo ops, there was definitely not a whiff of protest from both witches, they seemed to be at home with such labelling!

As circumstances would have it, both witches were to meet again, this time the note, refrain or tone that they danced to was that of the 2019 polls and how to displace the present occupant, President Muhammadu Buhari. Before the second dance, the older witch in the person of Obasanjo had told the world countless times that the good Lord would not forgive him if he supported the other witch’s ambition to govern Nigeria. Recall that Atiku Abubakar, being the younger witch, had served Obasanjo as vice president for eight years, in which Atiku fell out of favour with Obasanjo owing to allegations of corruption, greed, disloyalty, his penchant for the diabolical and lies.

In his three volumed book, “My Watch” Obasanjo outlined how Atiku had tried to do him in while they both were in office. He accused Atiku of relying heavily on marabouts and money. Asides the book, the former president, at every mention of his Veep, would reiterate that his erstwhile deputy was unfit for leadership. In fact, Obasanjo had even grabbed the headlines when he screamed that God would not forgive him if he knowingly backed Atiku on any venture.

It is obvious that Nigerians were much taken aback by the latest entente between Obasanjo and Atiku, with the question, what had changed? What had brought about the sudden volte-face by former President Obasanjo? What had happened to the Otta Farmer’s integrity?

For example, if Atiku was indeed unfit for office a few months ago? Then he visits you and kneels down for you meaning that he has learnt his lessons and is ready to mend fences? Haba OBJ!

Is defeating Buhari now a do or die for Obasanjo that he is so much ready to swallow what he had earlier vomited against Alhaji Atiku Abubakar just to help the cabal get rid of PMB?

One understands that Obasanjo is not happy with President Buhari, it’s his democratic right to do so, yet, I cannot find where to place Obasanjo’s rapproachment with Atiku, will it erase the weighty allegations of corruption against Atiku as seen in his handling of the privatisation programme witnessed by our national chattels go to himself and his cronies? Or his indictment by the United States Senate report as a Foreign Political Exposed Person?

Perhaps Obasanjo is driven by realism, knowing that his third force coalition is dead on arrival and requires that he backs an Atiku to at least stand a chance of seeing Buhari’s ouster, but whatever happened to statesmanship, that requires statesmen to act honourably? Is there a shred of honour in Obasanjo’s purported endorsement of Atiku? Does Obasanjo think that Nigerians and the world will ever take him and his views seriously again? No, this is not realism but political opportunism, which is at odds with what is expected of statesmen!

Nigerians must be circumspect about this second dance of witches; it is a reconciliation not in the interest of Nigerians, whose commonwealth was plundered by this same set of witches who now seek a second stint at the nation’s treasury.

https://www.mcebisco.com.ng/2018/10/when-witches-dance-second-time.html

This is quote-worthy.

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Islie:
does he believe he can be senate president.....

what about Akpabio's.....isn't he gunning for the same thing
this people and yeye

Ah, it's so easy to overlook this scenario!

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Let's hope that this time, they:

1. Have now included the provision for the Card Reader, which they mischievously removed from the last one they sent to the executive for assent; and have also made the provision for electronic voting iron-clad;
2. Have harmonized their in-house draft with the legal arm of the executive to avoid those reckless errors the legislative arm is now notorious for;
3. Will transmit it to the executive within the next legislative day or two. That will be a sensible departure from their usual grandstanding of announcing they've 'passed' a Bill and forwarded it to the executive for assent, when in actual fact they'd take a further three to six weeks just to send such a 'passed' Bill to the executive for consideration.

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Olohunjedalo:
Lol.
What the hell is this dude’s problem?
Why is he trying so hard to stay in the news?
Is there any law that says Anambra governor must work against Buhari?
He’s even mentioning Rochas that is a two term governor under APC Who else should Rochas work for if not PMB?
What kind of nonsense is this
Well, thank god you already see the writing on the wall . Votes will count in 2019 and we will witness a revolution in Nigeria Elections!
I don’t need to go into details.
Some people will chop serious flogging in their so called stronghold and they won’t know the tsunami that hit them .
We shall see

This is quote-worthy.

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modath:
As matter be now, na Atiku+PDP that will ensure Nnamdi Kanu really goes missing this time around & they will ensure with all their might, they won't miss..

Hahaha... Epic!

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AyakaDunukofia:
This is a welcomed news. It however will not change the Atiku frenzy on the ground in the old Eastern region. It can only buoy the resolve of the electorate to see the man that python danced unarmed agitators booted out of office. With this news, there is now a new energy moving forward.

C 'reasoning,' lol.

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Minjim:
Its not jazz when you're benefitting from it.

But since Atiku can't win...

Your head dey there, I swear. Good thinking.

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Yyeske:
I've said this earlier that PDP made a big mistake giving Atiku the ticket, a man who still has many skeletons in his cupboard and bringing up Peter Obi as his vice, knowing fully well that he and Obiano are not in talking terms and don't see eyeball to eyeball. Obiano will do everything possible to frustrate Peter Obi and PDP in Anambra.
Peter Obi couldn't win his local government for PDP in the last guber election in Anambra and the party coming a distant third behind APGA and APC says so much about Peter's political influence in the state.
For those who don't know, Anambra people were angered when Peter left APGA for PDP and can't trust him anymore.

I do not think the sort of likely scenario painted in the above quoted post, is generating the kind of apprehension it should within the Atiku+Obi Eco-system. If so, it may turn out to be a major miss by the PDP, and APGA may end up spoiling the chance of the PDP to have a stellar showing in the South East in the 2019 elections.

But, what do I know?

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rusher14:
You didn't ask him to dream Nairabet matches for you?

Epic!

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Armaggedon:
Truth is one of the most difficult pills to swallow but it’s indispensible anyway. Some Igbos have joined the bandwagon without asking some important questions. Here are reasons atiku can never win 2019 elections

He is not what some people think.

It is obvious from his recent history that he is just as integrity challenged as every other politician we have always complained about. From the PDP to AC, then to CAN. From ACN to PDP then again to APC and to PDP. Such talks about a detribalized man shouldn’t be taken seriously cos aside the fact that no Nigerian is detribalized, most of the reasons his supporters give to back up their claims are also true about Buhari and even more. An example is the claim that he had an Igbo running mate in 2007, but Buhari has had two Igbo running mates. Also people claim he has an Igbo wife but they forgot the claim that Buhari has an Igbo cook, an Igbo pilot and an Igbo daughter in-law, yet his administration has been the most anti Igbo since after the civil war. If we can accept him based on these then we could have accepted Buhari even more in 2015. Moreover, we know that he has never been a fan of restructuring unlike the likes of late Alex Ekwueme, Bola Tinubu etc. He only started flaunting the word lately without spelling out in details the forms it will take and the blueprint to achieve it. Yet, some of our people seem to be swallowing it. Most northerners and westerners believe they’ll lose in an event of restructuring. Some have even spoken against it openly. Why are our people behaving like they sighned a pact with him? Why then should some of our people believe a northerner can disfavor his people to please us? Do our people think he will not need the support of the north if he dares win, and will not do everything including retaining the status quo to pacify them?

Incumbency Factor

Buhari has contested election several times and rejected the results. It is diffult to believe that a man who instigated post election violence in 2011 and has rebuffed several advice not to contest will ‘allow’ himself to lose now that he has INEC, police, DSS, military, civil defence and religion to use. These institutions are all headed by his kinsmen, including INEC. Again, Most PDP governors need these institutions commanded by the president in order to secure their second term and will likely cut underhand deals with Buhari to support him secretly. The fact that jonathan’s loss was a first time occurrence is what our people seem to have forgotten. Lightening never strikes twice in the same place. Ekiti, Edo, and Osun election have proven that Buhari now has power and 2015 free and fair election ‘mistake’ won’t be repeated.

IPOB factor

Igbos have been voting since the the end of the war but things have only gotten worse and worse. No jobs, no power, no security, no roads and infrastructure in the east. In fact many people believe that the east is under a de-facto blockade by the Nigerian establishment which atiku that our people ignorantly support is part of. As a result most Igbos believe that pressing for a Biafran referendum through election boycott is the only way to eliminate suspicion among ethnic groups which hinders development and bring development to our people. South east and south south are supposed to be Atiku’s stronghold, but Ipob has called for election boycott. They have come to represent the aspiration of the people of our regions in the last three yrs. If you doubt it, at least accept that they command the majority public opinion in our region which they have demonstrated through sit-at-home and protests. The truth is that the Igbos are beginning to understand that Biafra is better and voting is useless in Nigeria. A vehicle like Nigeria which is broken beyond repair does not need a new driver, it needs dismemberment and only political jobbers think otherwise. Beside IPOB, facts on ground show that most Igbos were already fed up and were not too enthusiastic about the last election involving Jonathan which resulted in low turn-out, how much more atiku a northerner. In addition, this is the first time the election boycott will favor buhari’s immediate ambition and he is likely to support it subtlety, all to atiku’s disadvantage and Biafra’s gain.

Ethnicity

We all know Nigerian politics is ethnic politics. Most Igbos fail to realize that all these talks about development during campaigns is hogwash. This is even why Nigeria can never develop. Jonathan lost not because of anything bad but because the north and west felt he wasn’t part of the anti-Igbo establishment and the increasing suspicion that he will upturn things. Buhari still enjoys cult followership in the north west, north east and some parts of north central because of his ethnic group and religion. Only a little change occurred in the last three and half yrs. He is only likely to lose in plateau, benue and kwara and win in all other northern states. Most SW states are already in apc and will vote him with the hope of getting the presidency in 2023. As a result atiku will find himself in a dilemma in choosing vp. If he chooses an Igbo he is in trouble, if he chooses a Yoruba, he is in bigger trouble. Notherners know how to mobilize the rest of the country with anti Igbo sentiment. They’ll label him a Biafran supporter if he picks an Igbo and what happen in 2015 will repeat itself. Does it surprise you that arewa youths support an Igbo VP candidate for PDP but not For APC? If he pick Yoruba, the remaining moderate Igbos will dump him and obey boycott in protest.
If he has chosen Peter obi as being rumoured it is worse still for him. Remember the 2006 massob killings in Onitsha, the ezu river saga etc. Obi is neither a force to reckon with in PDP nor Anambra politics, not to talk of Igboland in general. He never won a senatorial seat in for Apga in 8yrs. Besides, All the PDP heavy weights like Chris Uba, Ulasi etc are against him, which was why he couldn’t win his ward for PDP during the 2017 election in Anambra. Again, Obi has been at loggerheads with Obiano his successor who now tacitly supports buhari. It’s difficult to see how Obiano will support him.

Foreign support

Both US and UK supported buhari’s candidacy in 2015. While it’s clear they US no longer supports him there is no evidence to suggest they are backing Atiku.

Igbos should open their eyes and follow Biafra whole-heartedly.you can’t want to win in Nigeria and still want to get Biafra. You can’t eat your cake and still have it. It’s called hypocrisy . leave election for Nigerias cos nothing will change whether you vote or not. It may appear like we are losing out in Nigeria but with focus we’ll win.

This is all heavy...

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MrJanuzaj:
CNPP PRESS STATEMENT - 20 November 2013

Conference of Nigerian Political Parties {CNPP} is alarmed over Governor Peter Obi’s penchant for ethnic card; which portends danger for our fledgling democracy.

Penultimate day, it was the issue of Yorubas deporting Igbos from Lagos, forgetting that he deported non-indigenes in 2009, yesterday it was an Hausa man, in this instance Malam Nasiru Elrufai, who came to stop his rigging plan and today the ethnic card allegation is that it was Osun State women who demonstrated at Awka against the sham Anambra State governorship election.

For the avoidance of doubt the women who demonstrated are aggrieved and courageous bonafide Anambra women whom Professor Attahiru Jega deliberately not only disenfranchised but stole their mandate. The video clips are still there, we therefore challenge Governor Obi to publicly point out Osun women in the video pictures. There is a limit to the endurance for a people whose mandate were stolen.

On the House Arrest of Malam Nasiru Elrufai, Governor Obi proclaimed, ‘As an APGA Chieftain, I won’t go to Katsina, ….if I ve my way I will bundle him out’. He forget that Elrufai’s freedom of movement is guaranteed by the 1999 Constitution Federal Republic of Nigeria, which he as governor swore to protect.

Governor Obi instead of the ethnic card, should do an introspection, asking himself, why the desperation in getting Ndi Anambra to seamlessly elect the candidate of my party, after 7 years of serving my people? Why is Senator Ngige an issue out of 23 candidates?

CNPP once more call for total cancellation of the election, and resignation of Professor Jega for complicity as events have shown the invincible hand of President Goodluck Jonathan in the sham election.

Otherwise how can his party the PDP abandon its candidate, Comrade Tony Nwoye and support APGA’s Pyrric victory in the face of gross irregularities and substantial evidences that tainted the election?

Mr Osita Okechukwu
National Publicity Secretary
CNPP

AnyoneButAtiku, Butterflyleo, Passingshot, raumdeuter, Abagworo, Ngeneukwenu

Indeed, the Internet never forgets.

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NotJustOkay:
Some people are hallucinating already. talking about how SW don't give block votes. I will urge you dreamers to check, 1979, 1983, 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011 election results in the SW. SW will give block votes when we feel our interest is well protected. And to those of you saying SW votes do not matter, I pity your ignorance. Core north have been voting Buhari since 2003 en block, yet he only won in 2015. Can you say core north vote is inconsequential too?

For those who think ibo votes will matter in SW in 2019, You are in for a shocker. Ibos will not be allowed to vote against APC in the SW. You either vote for Apc or don't come out at all. All we need to do is enlighten our people how tribalistic Obi is. he was the one that told ibos not to vote Ngige because ACN is a Yoruba party. He was also the one that said Lagos is a no man's land. This Obi will ensure Yorubas are marginalized in the govt. Ibos always claim Buhari hates them, yet there is no proof to that. At least we have a proof that Obi is a tribalist.

Thugs will never allow ibos to vote in Lagos and don't forget we have Inec. Election result can be written. No Yoruba heavy weight in PDP to checkmate rigging in the SW. PDP don't have the state apparatus to rig in the SS and SE.

APC will get more than 80% from SW.

I sincerely hope the part in the above post I've put in highlight, is not correct. If it is, then it is a damning narrative, in which case, every side should just expect that "all is fair in war," especially if not limited to the Social Media.

I don talk myyon o.

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NgeneUkwenu:
Just an observation..

diebuhari1:
He hasn't been offically announced Ogbonna Ubani

The 'reason' is largely simple, as found here... https://www.nairaland.com/4786531/southwest-standby-igbo-leaders-protest

... and it's on the front page already.

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globemoney:
While Atiku was yet to announce peter obi officially as running mate, the very desperate Peter obi in his "wiseness" ran to the media, leaked the news to the press and spread it on social media in a bid to arm twist Atiku to announce him! This is just one of the characters of the pretender called Peter Obi.
Anyway, in Anambra, we are voting 100% for APGA presidential candidate.. Nke a bu nke anyi.

Na wa o.

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FBIL:
You just dey worry yasef! See the calculation: SE, SS, NC and part of NE for Atiku; SW, part of NW and part of NE for Buhari. Tinubu will be struggling to deliver Lagos; Buhari will be struggling with the Yaradua PDM to deliver Katsina, Lamido's son is flying PDP flag in Jigawa. Every INEC officer and the Police go respect themselves to avoid youth Setting them and their offices ablaze. I don tey 4 diz game, bro!

LOL... How many offices have you previously set ablaze, especially during Ekiti-2014 and Osun-2018?

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emmaskyblue:
If u ar promised

#10 for tomorrow with insult of 5% against 97% by som1 (Buhari)

and u ar given

#5 today by his broda (Atiku)
which one will u take?

Chai.

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Adakintroy:
Not everyone is a politician bro. They are all thesame. Atiku and obasanjo took the power by themselves to apc. Atiku was one of Buhari biggest sponsors in 2015. This is fact. Thesame atiku is now saying giving me power. Like they are passing balls over our head. And you all are just being played like pawns.

Wake up and smell the rose. Sit on the fence and enjoy it. You will be smarter. Leave participation for zombies or people who know what they are doing. Or you may end up being the biggest zombie.

Word.

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sogodihno:
I see this 2019 election as a tribal and ethnic election, Yoruba has VP in APC, Igbos has VP in PDP.

let everyone vote for their candidate, Igbos didn't support Osinbajo in 2015, despite the fact that Jonathan was a failure, I hope they are not expecting SW to vote for Atiku(the same persons that destroy Nigeria for so many years without significant projects) and peter obi that called ACN a Yoruba party, despite the fact that ACN was controlling Edo state then.

And those saying SW is majority Igbo, e go clear for ur eye In 2019. Yorubas have very significant population in kwara(half Yoruba) and Kogi States (I have been to this place so I know what am saying). And to those using the recent election in Osun and Ekiti as a criteria this is a different scenario, this is more of ethnicity interest.

Before, u qoute me to say nonsense, Did Igbo support Osinbajo in 2015? despite the fact that Jonathan is a monumental failure. Dont expect otherwise from SW.

#istandwithosinbajo.

Hmm... squared.

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Adakintroy:
This is were people like oyedepo and obasanjo will be disgraced. Oyedepo like the biblical prophets that took side with kings will be embarrassed.

Am no with Buhari mind you. Am no politician. Am for truth.

Obasanjo and atiku brought Buhari on us all in 2015. Now they are striving to get him out. It's seem they are fighting against us and fighting for us. They are more tribalism than they are true nationalist. This is why we are always in one cirlcle.

How can a northern man ever restructure this country. In all honesty. Jonathan would have done it with confab. But they fell him with lies and gimmicks..now here we are.

As long as we dont want to know the truth. We will keep turning round in one cirlcle with this same old politicians. Like the biblical isrealites We're we ought to reach in 5yrs will end up taking 50yrs

Buhari will win. Let oyedepo take the side of atiku all he wants. GOD don't work that way. Atiku have sown selfishNess and greed. Not truth and honesty. He will reap dishonesty and greed.

Hmm... Oro sunnunkun.

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