₦airaland Forum

RoughCut:
WEMA closed at N12.88 another 5% upside 246M shares in transaction worth N3.1B

But the average price was N12.71. Some people bought/sold at less than the full 5% increase (I hope that was not my broker ); it's the first sign that the momentum might be waning.

[quote author=Rob-roy link=topic=31554.msg1660160#msg1660160 date=1194483913]@ Easimoni,
Thanks for your reply on Crusader. May I ask why you chose it above Unic and Law Union, and why you downgraded Mbenefits ( I heard something about Abbey something, ). Thanks,[/quote]M Benefits did nothing wrong; Unic's interim results is too good to ignore. My ranking is based solely on forward PE.

tj4ever:
Hi all. Whilst beating tthis thread to tatters, Wema bank has grown about 15% in the last 3 trading days.

Abeg let's chill on the spit work and try to make some money.

We can debate the merits or demerits of the flood of offers or the integrity of bank books, but the mart moves on perception of value and not the reality of it.

I advice we get on a good stock , ride it for all it is worth and dismount before it croaks beneath us. I leave all the debate to the academics. And we all know they do not make much money.

The same academics you are yabbing bought wema bank when it was N3-4 and are now selling.

pumping777:
Half year PAT is 398M but the outstanding shares is 2.08B according to the offer documents. Full year PAT will probably exceed 800M due to festive season but even at 800M it will exceed projected PAT of 650M. I'm going to look for the quarterly earning patterns.

Forward PE for 2007 is still around 11.8. I think we need to wait a bit more. I don't see this drop ending this week. This is real panic selling. The volumes are low but almost always maximum drop in price

I suspect the offer was not fully subscribed so the real # of shares is 1.732B. Regarding waiting: what if the trend reverses tomorrow?

@ Pumping (or anyone else),
please do the math for Ikeja Hotels. Let me know what you see. Sept. 2006 Prospectus is still on the company's website if you are looking for a forecast. It's looking juicy.

pumping777:
I saw a question about what it means if a company has a PE ratio of 0.0. Interesting.

There are certain methods of calculating PE that posits that the lowest PE can really be zero instead of negative. Normally if a company is making a loss, the PE can be seen as negative but in this case it is considered zero.

A PE of zero itself is technically not possible except the share price is zero in which case there is no need to calculate anything. It will only arise when a negative PE is being reported. The general acceptable practise is not to report a PE ratio that is below zero.

Obviously this a company you want to avoid except you are sure of turnaround in the very near future. More info in the link below.

http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/negativeEPS.asp

I saw the question and I think the person may have seen some broker's report with 0.0 PE. They will do this for companies that have never released results or not enough results to calculate a total for 4 Qs. FSDH does this for companies such as Spring bank or Transcorp.

[quote author=Rob-roy link=topic=31554.msg1659730#msg1659730 date=1194467256]@ Easimoni
I know that you have done some intensive and extensive research into insurance. If you were financially constrained to pick just one out of your top three and hit it real hard, which horse would you back and why?[/quote]

blest:
easimoni, am eagerly expecting the reply to the insurance stock pick from the top three.

shigidi:
@ easi, thanks for the reply, and so, amidst all discussions, which stocks will you recommend taking position in right now, including pos.
thanks.
BTW, heroes is getting more confusing innit?

Crusader. It is now 10% of my 'folio and climbing.

Shig,
other than Crusader, I like Diamond bank (but I'm not buying, taking a break from banks) and Ikeja Hotels (have you doubled the 6 month result and shared it over 1.732B shares? I can't figure out why it's in free-fall; I'm going to buy some). If you want more Ins: Law Union and Rock & Unic (I just demoted M Benefits to #4).

Heroes is off the hook! You think Kenzei's the killer? And Peter can time-travel!

shigidi:
@ easimoni, how is life with you?
what do u think about longman,and university press. do u have any info on these? we said earlier that they had good fundamentals but do u still think so

I'm good, thanks for asking. My ONLY problem with them is the seasonal nature of the earnings. Longman had 75% of its PAT in the 4Q. Kinda makes it hard to do my normal straight line extrapolation of earnings. Otherwise, they pass in any other respect. Regarding info, I think there is no new gist other than the results that are published.

Geees:
Dunlop,
Some good news about it. Think it the nation see: http://www.thenationonlineng.com/dynamicpage.asp?id=36374
Their new factory is completed so folks are expecting a new lease of life.
Also more folks are making money to buy cars, tyres would be needed. Problem is the loose borders which allows tyres come.

Only last week, I mentioned Dunlop as one of my sleeper picks for 2008. I hope the completion of the plant or rumours of a technical partner won't compel people to bid up the price before I'm ready. Dunlop incured bigger losses in FY 2006 and 1Q07 than what was in the prospectus. Maybe because the plant was 10+% over budget. I suspect they may already be coming out of the red and someone knows this and it buying up. _{We may be witnessing another Costain in the making}. With the oversubscription in the PO, they would have to deliver some spectacular results to support~N3 so I'm not fully convinced yet.

tonyjon:
@ Rob-Roy,

I hope Transcorp will not give their fans heart attack with all these their problems. I still cannot figure it out where they will get #14 b. to pay if they appeal and lose. I think we should continue to pray so that God will turn around the captivity of Transcorp and convert it to gain.

Peace.

I think no one should buy Transcorp until they show one quarter of profits at a minimum. Buying at any other time is based solely on conjecture or technical analysis. _{Or wait till it hits N2}

shigidi:
@ easi, which banks do u think are solid now

Wema is still the king until TS hits. Aside from that, Diamond, Access and GTBank in that order. Among those doing POs, FCMB and maybe Bank PHB.

@ Rob-roy,
that's awful news for transcorp shareholders. But I'll expect they'll appeal the court's decsion. At least try to delay the inevitable.

wanaj0:
Yes there will be diluted EPS (temporarilly) Ever bothered at how much they can get from N250bn investment? Think about the impact of that on profit? Even at 10% return on capital, that is N25bn added to current profit! Not bad in my opinion.

True but that's for the long-term holders of the stock not for the guys looking make a quick buck.

My 2 closest friends were both females. Once I found the person I was going to marry, she never had to ask me to cut-ff or reduce the friendships, I did so voluntarily. Your mission is a serious releationship (and ultimately marriage) is to create an atmosphere of intimacy and trust and nobody should come between you. How would a man feel if he wants to spend time with his girl only to have her say she made plans with her best friend who happens to be a guy. He calls her in the morning and she spent the night in the guy's house


If she doesn't realize that her boyfriend should be her new best friend, she is clearly lacking wisdom. Beauty is wasted on an indiscreet woman. It's like gold in the mouth of a pig.

Why did I stop my BUY order for May and Baker. And Wanaj0 has been blowing their trumpet for months.

[quote author=no_shaking link=topic=31554.msg1655497#msg1655497 date=1194367646]Today's Punch Newspaper. Sometimes companies place results on the pages of the newspaper before releasing the said results on the floor of the NSE the following day. Also, news flash from IBTC via email![/quote]Ah, I see. Well that precludes the diasporans like pumping and I from seeing them. Pls continue to share. Much appreciated.

My bad, I meant UBN. And they are giving away 12B out of a PAT of 13.8B (~87%)

UBA gave away 87% of it's PAT as dividends. Wow.

@ no_shaking,
it seems your source of company results are quicker and more detailed than mine. Would you mind sharing? Pretty please!

United Bank for Africa Buys 49% of UK.'s Afrinvest
   

United Bank for Africa Plc, the largest lender in west Africa by assets, bought a 49 percent
stake in London-based Afrinvest Ltd. to lure more British investors.

Afrinvest, a closely held investment bank that focuses on African securities, will change its
name to UBA Capital (Europe) Ltd., the Lagos-based lender said today in an e-mailed
statement. UBA won't disclose the terms. An Afrinvest spokeswoman, who declined to be
identified, said from London. ``Now we can provide the London emerging-markets investing
community with the broadest portfolio of African fixed-income and equity products available,
'' Afrinvest Chief Executive Officer Philip Ihenacho said in the statement.

UBA, which has units in Ghana, New York and the Cayman Islands, plans to expand in India
and China to tap increased interest from foreign investors in Nigeria, Africa's largest oil
producer and most populous nation, and the rest of the continent. A partnership with UBA
will help increase the number of African companies that Afrinvest researches.

UBA, which over the past 18 months has traded $8 billion worth of Nigerian securities, also
plans to expand its reach across west, central and southern Africa, according to its Web
site. Standard Bank Group Ltd., based in Johannesburg, is Africa's largest lender with assets 15
times that of UBA.

- Bloomberg news

I got this off the Nigerian Securities website but could not find it on bloomberg. Elumelu is really expanding his horizon.

The link is not working.

toyibanj:
Easimoni,
When do we cash in Wema, before TS axe falls on it?

I'm composing my "SELL" instructions to my account officer as we speak. I plan on selling half of my holdings tomorrow and the other half next week. If TS falls on it after tomorrow, so be it. But 5% a day is too tempting to give up completely.

RoughCut:
I have been reading your stuff since i registered on this forum back in May and it appears to me everything you have touched has the ring of a midas to it. How did you do that? i beg make you transfer some of the anointing now i no dey too far from you ke

I'm blushing. . Seriously, I hit gold with Wema, the rest of my portfolio is not shining. All I try to do is hit the stocks with the lowest forward PEs and wait for the market to recognize their cheapness and adjust. Has not failed to work so far. Now I'll hit Crusader with everything I've got. Am I a risk taker? BIG TIME! But you are only young once. When the kids come, I can't do this anymore.

pumping777:
The insurance companies are churning out good Q-3 results and in a timely manner too. I think the best potential for growth is in this sector right now. It will be better though if the companies can be transparent with the numbers of shares outstanding. Who has seen the result for Unic? I'm waiting for the first(?) insurance company to run foul of good earnings.

I have digested the SEC website and with the exception of companies that merged (e.g Crusader), the outstanding shares of most companies can be deduced. Did you get my excel s.sheet on the other forum?

@ Roughtcut,
I'm reading and smiling.

whitelexi:
@Easimoni

Do you agree with wanajo? Anyways, i'm in the insurance sector for long keeps, but if things are going to go wrong, i might as well sell when things get slightly better.

I think Ins Coys are at the two ends of the spectrum. Some are ripe for a bull run (by now you know my list   Crusader, M Benefits, Law Union) and some may crash and burn. I think the picture there is largely incomplete but I have done as much homework as I can and I'm buying into the three Coys mentioned above. Only for risk takers.

babaife:
Nose diving is a term is the most appropriate words when you hold a share whose PE continues to reduce in value. for instance, you bought a share when the PE is 20, any the last 3 quarterly results shows a PE of 15, 10, and 5. i ask what should an investor do? hold the shares till the PE becomes 2? you have to sell. the reduction in PE may be due to accurate information being made available in the market. How i wish i could explain better on CREATIVE ACCOUNTING and its EFFECTS on SHARE PRICE. A topic for another day

when expenses and debts nose dive, it is HIGHLY DESIRABLE because the effect is that earnings increase, share price increase, confidence in the management increases and ULTIMATELY, PE INCREASES

A Weak or Low PE is a value stock. it is one of the criteria to adjudge the efficiency of the management team. investors WANT TO BUY SHARES WITH LOW PE THAT HAVE THE ABILITY TO GROW OVER TIME, BUT DO NOT WANT TO SEE THEIR SHARES PE DROP. or what is the point in buying a share whose PE is likely to drop?

I'm confused (very confused).  Why wouldn't you want your PE to drop? (or do you mean price?) They only way PE drops is for earnings to go UP UP (a good thing) or for prices to drop. If you mean prices (not PE) are dropping, simply say so. If EPS goes up, and PE goes down, most investors would be deliriously happy. A PE of 2 = cloud 9 (as long as it's not price that's dropping).

Anyway, my point is: if it's price that's causing PE to drop, let's use Price, otherwise I'm assuming it's EPS going up and who wouldn't love that?

shigidi:
@ easimoni,
you see what i told you about costain they are applying for about 700 million shares. that will drastically reduce the eps and i don't see it making such a mad amount of profit to maintain its current eps.

Let's hold judgement till we see the prospectus. After all, we are basing our projections on only the 1Q results.

Tmoni:
our beloved WEMA was up the maximum 5%, nobody even tried going lower

Get ready! I understand they will go on TS either this Wednesday or next wednesday.

[quote author=chris_ibu link=topic=91072.msg1650809#msg1650809 date=1194263602]Please, can somebody give me the official website of GTB because I'm now confused which is real. Once u login with that site. It would redirect me to another site that looks like the real site.[/quote]If you logged in to the fake website with your GTB user ID and password, the scammers now have your log-in ID and password. Contact he bank immediately to shut-down your on-line access and maybe close down your bank account and open a new one.

If I remember correctly, this is a phishing scam. I entered "419" as both my user ID and password and it "let me in" by re-directing me to the real site. They hope you don't notice the q in the address.

The real website is www.gtbplc.com

@ Socrates,
I live in the US but avoid the stock market here like a plague. Don't judge the Nigerian stock exchange based on your US experience. The numbers are SOOOO different.

Hiro: Sylar, he's the billain!
Nathan Petrelli: Billain Oh you mean "villain"
Hiro: yes, that's what I said, billain.

Priceless!

@ Sweet T and other bank PO cautionists,

I once had the privilege of working on a $B+ project in the Nigerian oil and gas industry. We wanted to boost local content so we asked Nigerian banks for $300M. It took SIX, yes SIX, Nigerian banks to raise that amount while CSFB single-handedly funded the remainder. An amount considered small in international investment banking circles. If you ask why Nigerian banks keep raising money, it's because there are so many big-ticket items (in oil & gas, telecoms, public infrastructure) that our banks cannot handle at their current size. Ask yourself what Citibank has been doing in Naija all these years. They are the the bankers to the big internationals in Naija and their tiny office in V/I moving more money than our big banks. If our banks wish to jump-start the march to international relevance, the first step is to have adequate capital. that's what they are trying to do.

On the subject of raising debt, I'm not trying to talk down to you but there is nothing wrong with a bank raising money through debt. If a bank can borrow money at typical western rates (say 6 - 8%) and invest in 20 - 50% Nigerian projects, why not? Almost all companies fund projects with a mix of debt and equity. Banks all over the world issue bonds to raise money and get line of credits.

That said, I don't like POs simply because they are not in the best interest of a short-term investor (e.g ME). But if a bank wishes to stay relevant, the name of the game is capital. And you must get it, via POs or debt, but you must get it.

Enjoy.

PS, Don't accuse people of cooking books without credible evidence. You linking banks in Naija to enron is reckless deduction. Why can't there be anything good about naija?