₦airaland Forum

whitelexi:
I hear from friends in naija that the insurance sector reserve cash has been released, how true is this?

Easimoni oh! where are u?

I just woke up and this thread has covered 3 pages and I have a mgmt review in an hr. U people no go kill person!

Good news about Ins. Shame I still have some cash left over from my part sale of Wema. Looks like the bull has left the station.

EMMAACHILE:
Expecting Ikeja Hotels to get to its oversold position of about 3.20 naira before it rebounds back but unfortunately it didn't. 3.20 should be about its 200 Simple moving average

200 SMA? It's not been listed for up to 200 trading days or has it? Thanx for the email BTW.

Naijadr:
Anyone purchased Red Star? I placed a buy order, hoping it all goes well

Let us know if you got some.

donilors:
@easimoni,
is crusader still a good buy at 4.41, whats your take,
which other insurance stock can one dabble into?
Cheers.

My average buy price for Crusader is currently N4.56, soyes, 4.41 looks good to me. It's been bouncing btwn 4 and 4.50 the last month so try to buy in the low 4s. This plan may backfire if the stock has turned upward for good but I don't know for sure. (this is where tech analysis would be useful)

Other good Ins stocks are Unic and Law Union and Rock

pumping777:
Please, can anyone crunch the numbers for NEIMETH INTERNATIONAL PHARM? I have a projected PE of around 14.

With today's price = 3.99, a 6 month PAT = 90.8M and 1.54B shares (thanks to Futureview), I have a forward PE of 34

RoughCut:
You have already sold your WEMA! so which one be I'm not selling my WEMA

I've sold 75% of it. I'm still thinking up a new signature. How bout "Buy Crusader"?

wanaj0:
Yes interest rates are much lower. But when you use a loan/margin, your emotions tend to get more into your reasoning. have many around me now passing through 'counselling' for using short term loans (one year) for long term investment (capital market)

Lot's of my colleagues going thru the same as well. That's why I hesitate to leverage. You just never know.

krisbobo:
@Easimoni
Bro, you don forget me? i mailed you since yesterday and I never see your response o!
Abeg reply sir.

I've replied.

RoughCut:
And you can't tap into the credit market in the US?

HMMMMMMMM. _{Off to crunch some numbers!}

@ D-DOTS,
my 2008 resolution (not too early to think about it) per investing is to blend tech analysis into my skill set. Done a bit of reading on investopedia. Is there a demo software I can get my hands on that can do the analysis for me?

@Youngdoc
RE: MArgin trading
Liver no gree me yet. I have to make a call in a few days. 1Q 08 is likely going to be quite bullish. Now is the time (if ever). Being out of naija doesn't help either.

Temmie10:
ikeja hotels gained max today, 14 deals, easimoni and pumping, why do i think u are the ones buying?
But the real story of the day is ubn and wema trading over 10 billion naira each.

I bought on monday. I hoped I was close to the bottom for a change. But pumping is right; the volume is too low to predict a reversal.

Wema I understand; fair value is 18+ accourding to IBTC. UBN, that's a head-scratcher. 

Talktrue:
@all
Anyone with the outstanding shares of crusader.

Was their IPO fully subscribed.

I have 984,467,113 share before IPO and additional listing of 3,437,160,619 shares from the IPO.
can someone validate this figures.
What they have on Nigerian securities website is quite different from the figures below.

I can seem to lay my hands on their 9months result can anyone share please.

Pumping is right about Crusader's outstanding shares (3.437B). Nigerian Sec seem to have Law Union and Crusader mixed up.

Re: Red Star Express

The 22K DPS reflects the # of shares BEFORE the private placement. Adjusted DPS is 19K. To support a price of N4, I'd like to see an EPS of 25-30k. If they paid a dividend = 60% of PAT (as the avg coy does) then it's a good deal (esp. as the 19k DPS is trailing not forward) as that'll indicate the trailing EPS should be ~30k.

I'd love to see the real numbers and I've googled to no avail. At the very least, if trailing DPS = trailing EPS = 19k, trailing PE = 21. That makes it cheaper than 1/2 of the NSE stocks (most of which have updated earnings).

Bottom line is I'd rate it a buy at face value only.

For the 1st time in 7 days, Wema is not on net bid. The run is likely over or on a break. Dunno why people are rushing to buy Union bank. If you own it, now is the best time to sell.

chaj:
Hi all, especially d gurus in da house- u know yourselves

I've been following, or is it STALKING this thread daily, since page 89.

How do u explain UNTL's price gain- in spite of what has befallen them i.e liquidation?

Secondly how does capital appreciation of a stock impact on the profitability or liquidity of a company. someone tried explaining it a few days back, but it didn't jell. For instance, FCMB appreciated by 329% so how did/does that put money into their pocket?

Thanks

If anyone's buying UNTL, they must be trying to throw money away.

Stock market price has no effect on a company's performance other than if affects their ability to raise equity in the future. also the dirctors are likely the largest shareholders and I'm sure they like to see their net work increasing. Don't you?

ololufemi:
Thanks easimoni,

Another Question.
To determine the real price of a stock, do you perform the following actions:
Industry Average PE Divided by Stock PE and multiply this by the current stock price.
Just thought of this.
Cheers

No I don't do that. That assumes the PEs for the other companies reflect the value the public puts on the stcoks. The NSE is VERY inefficient (the roller-coaster experience of Wema in the last 2 weeks for example) and so many other factors are at play that the banking sector has PEs ranging from 17 to 70. Is First Inland (PE = 70) really worth 3X Zenith (PE = 24)?

Sorry man, but I don't think you'll get much use out of that arithmetic.

ololufemi:
Pumping777,
Why have you been ignoring my shout out.
Question
What stocks should one buy that will profit one in 2008 first quarter.
Thanks

Allow me to speak on his behalf. It's probably a good idea for us to help you figure out HOW to pick a stock that will make you money in a certain period rather than picking one for you. Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day, teach him to fish. . you know the rest. If I give you my best guess and it turns out to be wrong, won't you come back and blame me?

Anyway, my strategy is to pick the stocks with the lowest forward PEs. Right now those stocks are Crusader Ins and Ikeja Hotels. I don't know if you'll make money in 1Q 08, but they offer you a better chance than most stocks to make money next year.

krisbobo:
@Easimoni

Could you please send me your email address? I need to ask your advice on something I want to do as per stcks. If you'd rather not put your email add in a public space, here is mine, omodudu4ever@yahoo.co.uk .i'll appreciate it if you can drop me a line so I can then mail you. Thank you.

easimoni2004@yahoo.com

pumping777:
Can anyone confirm the outstanding shares of C&I Leasing. I have 600M. Thanks.

RoughCut:
They did a PO sometime June 2006 and 1.4B shares were listed so add that to what you have. It's one of the stocks on my to-buy list for 08

Actually the PO for 1.4B shares was 71.5% subscribed (so says the SEC). Total shares now 1.601B. Def a buy in 08.

EMMAACHILE:
Some analysis on Ikeja Hotels
PAT for half Year 2006 was 337 million naira but declared 561.27 million at end of year
PAT for half year 2007 is 397 million naira so we may not expect a doubling of the PAT if what happened last year is going to repeat itself.
This shows that they make most of their profit in the first half of the year.
Ordered for some little units at 3.20 maximum price

Based on outstanding shares of 1.732 billion units, Ikeja Hotels is definitely undervalued with forward PEO of about 10.

Your analysis is spot-on. I believe they'll make ~N610M for the FY which is ~35k. Are you willing to risk the stock falling to N3.20? After all, the PO was at N3. It lost the full 5% today but I'm not sure that'll continue into next week.

pangolo:
Is this news on Crusader valid or not? We heard about Mbenefit and oters but nothing on crusader??
I found this link: http://allafrica.com/stories/200710090095.html

Easimoni, Pumping, et al Aeg Comment o!

Yes, Crusader will raise money next year. Don't understand what you are asking though! How will it affect the price? look at the banking sector for comparison.

kingzy:
@All gurus,
Please I bought UBN @36 and hoping to sell beyond 50. is it likely to hit beyond 50 before the 22nd of Nov?

Union will be split on 19 Nov. People are buying to participate in the split/dividend. My advice: this week is the perfect time to exit. Union closed on bid today so it's likely to gain tomorrow. When it stops closing on bid, it's time to sell. But sell it this week.

aktopgun:
by the way, roughcut suggesyed u are the man to talk to about dunlop and ikejahotels

whats the 411 on these guys? they look dodgy to me

what say u?

Dunlop, I can't fully speak to. But here goes; they had a PO last year and promised to use the proceeds to pay off debts related to the construction of a new factory. The factory is now complete and the losses they've been incurring will come to an end. Dunlop will see a sudden turn-around in fourtune but I think it's too soon to jump on the train. The losses (so far) were bigger than expected and the PO was oversubscribed (more mouths shares to feed). They will be hard-pressed to deliver 10k per share this year (min I think is required to justify the current price) but will be positioned to deliver 25-30K in 2008. It hink the best time to position is sometime in 2008; try to time it before the good results start to come out. If you have patience, by all means join now.

Ikeja hotels; this is simply a short-term play. The forward PE is v low (11)  and the PO buyers are selling in multitudes. The free-fall must stop soon and the market will adjust it to it's fair value (methinks N6.50- 7). Not a long-term play for me (low growth. I plan to sell within 6 months (or whenever is reaches fair value)

Wema gained 5% today but closed with 90M shares on offer? It led the NSE on the net offer table. I guess the rational explanation is a lot of people are selling but they'll only sell at the full 5% gain for the day. Maybe the run doesn't last the rest of the week.

RoughCut:
Are we still on for the merry-go-round ride on Ikeja hotels?

Ol boy, I've issued my buy order and I'm waiting for my broker to confirm the purchase.
As per the Wema success, na God O! I'd never have predicted Wema getting to 18 when I bought in Jan. But it validates both things I always look out for in "home-run" stocks, just coming out of debt (or goodwill/bad loans or losses) and having a very (relatively) low forward PE. In both regards, Wema exceeded my expectations.

Temmie10:
Wema's result is the bomb!!!
Few months ago, when i was shouting "buy wema!", i was predicting a full year part of 6.4B based on qtr1 result of 1.6B,
Now, their half year result is even more than my projected PAT.
Enjoy your loot, people!!!

They do this when I've taken 75% of my Wema off the table? So much for the TS gist. No way this stock isn't doing 5% daily for the next week. N18 on Monday next week.

yodiyokun:
@Easimoni

Crusader is making me cry oooo, I bought at 4.55, can u imagine,
Any money I have now I will buy more units to average my price lower, maybe by month end.

My sister, I'm a bit peeved myself. That said, with 50% of my Wema gone, it's creating a good buying opportunity I can now take advantage of. Dunno how to explain the drop sha.

Pumping,
are you watching Ikeja Hotel's free fall? I'm going to become a hotel owner on Monday. _{(at least 1% of 1% of the hotel)}

Ben0524:
Is it wise to buy in INSURANCE COYs now when knowing fully well that they are still going on another phase of consolidation?

If one buys it now how secure is the investment?

Banks have done will despite (for instance) 3 fund raising trips in 3 years by Zenith and Ins coys are growing at 2X the rate of banks. Even if they issue new shares, the pie is sure to outgrow the new shares.

Risk is same as the rest of the market. I don't see any difference.

Ben0524:
To Wanaj0, Pumping777, Easimoni and all GURU's,

Does anyone has an idea if N.E.M insurance or the Insurance sector as a whole will still fall befor the end of the year, or is this the right time to get them.

I want to get NEM insurance ant 2.00 or 1.50k , please can it drop to this price again?


PLS. Reply Urgently my Gurus in the room.

Only BigBoyLarry has a crystal ball and can predict the future; the rest of us buy stocks that are cheap and curse our luck when the price goes down making the stock even cheaper (in the short-term) but hoping our analysis turns out to be right in the long run.

Will NEM still go down? It should because it is 2X as expensive as Law Union and Rock and almost 3X as expensive as Crusader on a forward PE basis. But I have seen stranger things happen. Why don't you buy Crusader or Law Union and Rock instead. Both are cheaper than NEM.

Hope this helps.

krisbobo:
@Easimoni

Oh, now I kno why u no respond to my questions since. I have been awake for 10hrs so I took it for granted that H-town peeps might still be sleeping!

Please answer this:

I beg I be small investor o but if you get 1000 units of Union Bank would you sell to buy Crusader and Unic? I bought at IPO at N20
and e don double at current price of N41.

I no get power to follow you go DIAMOND but I wan enter insurance coys well. I got 5k of Crusader last friday, my target na 50k units.

Abeg advice this small pikin o!

Plus, Easimoni, how much do u think Crusader and Unic will be in say 6-12 months?

Plenty thanks!

Pumping roughcut et all make una yarn too o!!!

Your plan is solid. Get out of Union bank (I never liked them and pretty soon, they'll be a 2nd tier bank) and get into Crusader (4.09 today). If Crusader does not sell too many shares during the inevitable PO, I fully expect them to touch N6 within the next 6 months and N8 late next yr. Unic has similar potential but is not growing anywhere near as fast as Crusader.

pumping777:
@ easimoni - Did you go for the Ikeja Hotels? If the price drops again tomorrow, I will start joining the fray.

Not yet, my broker wants to see the Wema proceeds b4 buying anything. Ikeja Hotel dropped the 5% again today. Peeps are still selling big-time. Regardless of tomorrow's direction. I'm buying starting monday.

RoughCut:
easimoni if na play make you stop am o

My own piece was only a fraction of the volumes being moved  . Besides, I only sold 1/2 of my Wema. Trying to squeeze some more gains with the other 1/2.

Panadol:
@easimoni,

What's your take on BagCo?

Just donwloaded the prospectus and still drinking my coffee (trying to wake up). Will read it in my spare time and respond. But a casual glance says a FY 2008 forward PE of 23 is TOOOOO expensive. Crusader's 2007 forward PE is only 11. _{See how I slid my new fave stock in there?}  Let this one pass.

husu:
i bought lasaco insurance at 3.00 and now it is 2.33,why?

I don't mean to be cheeky but prices in the stock market go up and down, sometimes for no reason at all. That said, keep your Lasaco. It'll be more than N5 a year from now if they keep up their performance.