₦airaland Forum

Temmie10:
whats your projected PAT for gtb?

I have a GDR analyst's report that quotes 19.5B

@ Barge's post above: AMEN!

Geees:
Thanks Emmaachile, Yodi and all for the resource.

@ Wanaj0,
If I go  underground then know am reading the spreadsheet.

Thank you well well. Me? I'm hibernating this weekend to sift through the data. Already dusted my excel and VBA bibles to "align" the data for easier digestion.

Emmaachile, thanks for the upload link. Will use it if/when I have something to share

Obalende:
can anyone please enlighten me on the meaning of PO (just to clarify) - does it mean 'Private Offer' or 'Public Offer' and what are the fundamental differences with 'Private Placement'.

PO is public offer. There is no "fundamental difference" between a PO and a private placement (PP as we like to say). A PO is open to everybody and their uncle. A PP is often carried out by companies not yet listed in the NSE to raise money prior to getting listed. PPs often approach high-networth people and have minimum limits often in the millions. They also sell at deeper discounts than typical POs.

shigidi:
@ easimoni,
i couldnt even catch the bloody beta glass myself. had to settle for fcmb and dangote sugar for now.

My broda,
I even started chasing Unic and University Press. But UPL gained 5% on me today; I hope that was & was not my broker at the same time Will leave Beta Glass and C&I alone. If the market corrects, so be it.

adeyinkat:
@All,

I think the NSE & stakeholders can't overlook this thread for long; have you noticed that stocks pick or drop just by being mentioned on this thread. Proud to be a part (even if not as dominant as the gurus) this history making thread

You self don notice? Temmie mention Standard Alliance and it gains 50% in a month, Shigidi and Beta Glass; the stock is moving out-of-range, Wanaj0 and NGC; up 30+%, Fatherof2 and Access, Pumping and Unic/Law Union. You guys need to let me buy, THEN let the cat out of the bag. _{Me self try with Ikeja Hotels}

yodiyokun:
@All,

Just got to the office - time difference no easy.

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=TRBOR3BO

That's the download link from @naijadr suggestion.

Although I heard, someone has posted the link already.

Happy investing

With this file, I'm going to have to extend my hiatus to digest the enormous, mind-blowing amount of data that Wanaj0 has unleased upon us. JEEZ! And I thought I had a spreadsheet.

Wanaj0, thanks and I have an excel macro that'll make sorting your "result" and "dividend" pages a WHOLE lot easier. I'll apply it over the weekend and send repost those pages and the macro instructions. I've been using it on mine but only have data back 2 yrs.

@ Yodiyoks and All

Perhaps someone could come up with an online file sharing service. If you have a box.net account, yodi could email this file to you and then you can post a link for us to you. Any takers?

windywendy:
As an aside, I think Fatherof2's strategy is sound -- Just another way of taking advantage of the inefficiencies inherent in the market, esp. one as predictable as the NSE. I also use the strategy to generate cash for my longer-term investments, and it does work _{at least until it stops working} . However I limit the amount to no more than 10-12m for now 'because it's highly risky, esp. if one gets caught napping. Coupled with using fundamental analysis, you can make both short term gains arising from the market's near-sightedness and the long-term gains which are much higher _{think of it as taking money from both ends .} That's my two cents.

As my peeps say; "when you are big, you are BIG"

It will start in 2008. Abi?

Wendy,
weclome back! Hope you are back for good. Missed you around here. How's the newbie?

texas543:
@easimoni
Did you run because of the "talibans" and "suicide bombers? You better come back from your "self exile" nairaland is getting interesting

LOL!   Watching with interest! _{Now back to self-exile}

Oh! and the spreadsheet will be finished by then.   PEACE OUT!

I have been posting on this thread for 6 months now and I have defined PE/EPS/PEG and more several times. Even provided links to investopedia for those in need. I have a full time job o! If I have to define PE from 1st principles every time I quote it, because someone is too LAZY (yes I said it, LAZY  ) to dig up investopedia and read a few free and simple articles, I might as well stop posting on this forum. Isn't it your millions at stake? Didn't you work for it like I work for my own? Why must I (or any offshore/onshore "GURU" make buy and sell decsions for people? 3 yrs ago, I wrote my broker my 1st cheque for 600k; had never heard of PE, EPS, ROE, results or anything. Didn't even know daily price changes were capped at 5%. After losing money on my 1st deal, I taught myself everything I know today. Bought books and downloaded a dozen investopedia articles.

I'm here to share info and debate the relative merits of stocks. I may even offer advice based ONLY on the relative merits of stocks (which is cheaper/has more upside etc). If you want to know which stock will yield 150% in 6 months, ask your local prophetess. If a stock makes 25% in 1 month, so what? My Ikeja Hotel is up 40% in 2 weeks. Predict that! (I got lucky).

To stop this energy-wasting debates over styles, we should split this forum/thread. Seriously. If people are looking for messianic prophecies regarding what stocks will give them X% returns by Y date, they should know where to go. If someone wants to learn to pick superior stocks in both bear and bull markets, they should know where to go (do your learning 1st, no one can calc PE from scratch every post).

I'm taking a break, this forum is affecting my work performance   and I'm reading too many posts to get to the "good stuff". PEACE. Be back in a week.

@ Pumping,
I have 18.55B shares. IT's a mess with the multiple listings. Wish they'd just list them all at once.

blest:
easimoni,
  so u too got access on TS.i have a feeling my broker played a fast one on me.Gave him 1mill and he bought at 22.5.i have been just sitting and waiting.what do u suggest we do bout this.is there still prospect to recover my money with aleast 40% anytime soon?
   please help a brother in need, 

Your broker probably had to do a cross-deal to fulfil your order. A common practice when the stock is on TS but you often pay a premium for such a deal.

T make 40%, you need access to get to 32. Maybe not this year; likely mid 08 (after the current FY).

pumping777:
I have to add that FatherOF2' method is even more sophisticated because he is timing the lifting of TS and the release of interim results. No doubt a brilliant strategy which is really commendable.

Biko Fatherof2. Abeg, how u dey predict these things? You have to reveal the "code" you've been alluding to.

pumping777:
Let me put forward an example. I read earlier today of someone massing up Fidelity Bank during TS to ride on the "bull" after lifting TS. Do we really expect the price of Fidelity to rise after TS is lifted? It could not doubt but I just don't expect it. I think it is an unnecessary risk to take. The principle is okay in this case but it has probably been applied to the wrong stock.

I tried this concept with Access which, unlike Fidelity, was on net bid most of its time on TS. Guess what; when the TS was lifted, the so-called bull run never materialized and I was left hanging  . I was cool with it because I knew (and still know) Access was undervalued.

Fidelity has been on net offer since the day it went on TS. FCMB's results are good but already factored into the current price. If anyone wants to buy overpriced shares to "ride the bull"; be my guest (no be my money  ). Me thinks the market is getting more sophistciated, therefore, buy only buy shares you can live with if your timing of market sentiments is wrong. This thing of buying stocks on TS may no longer be a bright idea. He who has ears

jdizzy:
Surprise, surprise, Crusader actually gained the full 5% today, price currently at N5.38

I stupidly bought at N5.1 a few months ago - well, my brokers did because I did not specify a price limit. I'm thinking about bailing now to buy some FCMB. Any thoughts?

You and I must have bought on the same day! But, I kept buying as it dropped and on average, just made a tidy sum (I'm out now).

There are better coys out there now. FCMB is one, Unic is another. Either one is about 20% cheaper than crusader on a forward PE basis. I'd go with Unic: the FCMB offer was oversubscribed, thus the fundamentals will look different if/when they decide to absorb the excess. + the PAT target is aggressive.

Unic keeps u in insurance and should benefit from the funds just released. Let's just hope the 9 mo result is a pleasnt surprise.

yodiyokun:
Ok I have checked UNIC numbers, @ pumping confirm if I am on the right track
As at todays price Proj PE is 16.20 based on the 2nd Qtr results,
I wonder when they will bring out their 3rd qtr results, its due already.
Lets see how far it will free fall -

Correct down to the decimal point! Question now is if the 3Q will bring a pleasnt or nasty surprise. With the rise of Law Union  and the poor 3Q of Crusader  , Unic is now the cheapest. If it goes down tomorrow, I'm in.

shigidi:
@ easimoni,
how your weekend. i got more diamond and im hoping to hook beta glass and fcmb this week.
do u have any other suggestions right now.
BTW, since i got back to naija ive lost touch with heroes, hope u still dey enjoy am because i hear some people saying it aint as good as season1

Nah, Heroes isn't as good this year but things are looking up.

Don't have any recommendations right now. Waiting for some corrections.

damoche07:
Smiling? Come on,whats your take on the question.Think the post TS bull run will be sustained?

If it does, some people are buying some expensive shares. The PO just ended and we all saw the prospectus. The stock now has a forward PE of 35! Dunno what people are looking at.

slaykay07:
EASIMONI,

Did i hear you say something about Access PO, were you refering to the concluded PO OR another PO is on the way?

It wasn't me!

cutebabe:
The one you folks use in number crunching or was it Emachille offering?
Not sure now. It was mentioned like 12 pages back
Emachille if it's you, hook me up please.
Thx

Me thinks that was Emmaachille offering up some technical trading tips. Turns out he had a couple of manuals and recommended programming them into your own spreadsheet. I'm building it into one. Still a few weeks away.

Man Jiro:
Thanks Etin.

Does anyone know where to get year end dates for all or most listed companies? I have tried Cashcraft but i need more details.
Cheers.

Register at Nigeriansecurities.com and go to the valuation page.

or

Register at FSDHSecurities.com and the daily report has that info

or

Go to IBTC's research center and download the free "stock select" file

[quote author=X-2-X link=topic=31554.msg1714085#msg1714085 date=1195908227]Anyone with details of company outstanding shares, in say spreadsheet format? Kindly email same to me :[/quote]http://www.futureview.com.ng/research.aspx

Look at the bottom of the link and download the "Market Snapshot" file. It's pretty reliable.

All First Bank PO/rights buyers: here is some good news.

Why First Bank’s share certificates are delayed

Did it really close in June? Wema was still trading at 8-9 bucks.

bigjay01:
fellow Naiaralanders
pumping, easimoni, fatherof2, wanaj0 ,
I am a stock market virgin. I have a quick question, can anyone tell me the historical behaviour of stock market this time of the year. Does it generally tend get depressed. Is it wise to buy from the secondary market this time of the year, or is it better t wait till a certain time after xmas?. My stock broker friend is advicing against generally waiting till January.
Whats the deal with Dunlop / Access / Afribank (PO), these are stocks am about to invest heavily based on my brokers advice. Any misgivings?

This is only my 3rd yr in the market and the large PO flying around make it impossible for me to predict the market direction. I think the market is slightly over-heated at the moment and could cool down in the next 2 week. Also, xmas and the Zenith offers in Dec should lower prices. My advice: wait till December to start buying.

Go for Access and the Bank PHB PO. No to Dunlop and the Afribank PO.

youngdoc:
@ Wanajo
Easimoni
Father of 2

Bagco or PHB with a time frame of 2009?

Tonyjon suggests PHB but am still mulling my options. I don't want to buy both. majority wins.
Please reply soonest. Thanks

Bank PHB hands down.

brita123:
Thanks Pumping,

Didn't know that the offer was fully subscribed (for 1.4 billion units). If it was, then it's not quite as attractive as I thought it was although the growth prospects of the company look good. Crunching more numbers, if the offer had greater than 50% subscription, then Law Union & Rock is still a better buy (I hear you say different industries but the main area of growth for both of those companies will likely be in their oil and gas business)

Enjoy the rest of your Thanskgiving weekend!

The offer was not fully subscribed (it was 75%). As pumping said, the total # of shares is 1.601B.

Union bank Hybrid Offer in 1Q 2008?

http://businessdayonline.com/Economic-Watch/Market-Outlook/1232.html

Dem never tire?

@ oshkosh, sound logic but you assume the institutional investor will be disappointed by the result. I'm not so sure because, again, GTB makes 60+% of it PAT in the 2nd half. Still on pace for 20B. And selling to buy back is a little trickier in life than on paper. By all means sell. Only if you have a better buy or are willing to hold on to cash.