₦airaland Forum

shigidi:
@ easimoni, if youre out there, na wa for this bull run ooooooooo.
can't find anything to enter.
what is your forecast eps for dangote sugar. ibtc puts at 2.65, so at a pe of 17-18, it should be at least 45naira, whats your eps because i need to compare. this is the only stock i have been able to enter so far.
which stocks are u looking at

SHIGIDIIIIIIIII!!!!!!!
How now? where have u been hiding?

True talk. This is a seller's market now o! We buyers must siddon look. Can't compete with the institutional investors for stocks at the moment. Hoping the "pullback" will happen next week.

I ordered some Access with a limit of 19.10, I hope they got some yesterday. If not, I'm joining u on Dang Sugar because (outside of Beta Glass) all the fundamentally good stocks have left the station. My forward EPS jives with IBTCs. It's not a money-doubler but a very safe pick.

oawele:
has any body heard of trade point?

Nope. What is it about?

capuchi:
@easimoni, temmie FatherOF2 or EMMAACHILE or other gurus

Do you think ocenic will increase to like 20% before the year runs out considering the love of dividends by nigerians and the rumoured bonus?
I am thinking of buying it 2morrow

Oceanic just sold 11B shares to bring the total to 22B? _{Not 100% sure, left my s.sheet at work}. If they do a split, we are looking at a min of 25B shares, maybe more. That would not be smart. Can it appreciate 20%. It's possible, esp if they beat the forecast. I don't think it's likely though.

Naijadr:
wow this bullish trend continues, decisions decisions approaching exit point of one of my stocks
what do u guys think the influence of the release of the 1ast bank PO shares will be on the market in the next week or so. With the huge influx will it not initially depress the stock price?

Really, 1st bank's PO shares will be listed next week? My hypothesis is that even though FBN tried to reduce the gap btwn the PO and market price by issuing that bonus, so many people buy POs with borrowed funds that they'd have no choice but to sell it once they get the certs. Expect a depression but not a huge one. Oceanic seem to be managing their share price well. FBN should do the same.

The best JEEP is a Jeep. The best SUV? A Hummer. Maybe a monster truck.

It looks like the whole market is gaining.

@kpineo,
who is everyone? I'm def not selling after 25%. See no basis for that. Beware of technical trading if u have no training.

toyibanj:
@Roughcut
I think there is a mistake in your calculation
177 m for qQ2 is projected to 354 mil for year end jan31/2008
proj. EPS is 22k NOT 44k as you stated
proj . PE at today's price of 5.37 is 24 NOT 11 as you stated.
So with enlarged1.6 billion shares ,i don't think C & I is any thing to write home about.

Correct, 177M is for 6 months, not just the 2nd quarter. C&I is more long-term. I'd say it's not yet time to buy. Better deals exist at the moment.

Shaman:
I guess you were not bouyant enough to afford DSTV 10years ago so you are unaware of what their beginings were like.

U are so right! It was CRRRRRAAAAAPPPPPPP.

Seun:
I like them better when they're busy fighting rather than meddling with our freedoms. United, they stand and we suffer!

Our freedoms are still bound by the law (which BBA clearly broke). If someone feels they have the freedom to break any law (e.g put in a bullet in my head because i disagree with them), I'd appreciate my senators upholding the law. that's what they are elected to do. And enough of the "hypocrisy" card. What leaders in what country are flawless? Let BBA (and our senators) obey the law.

Temmie10:
easi
looks like first inland have got something up their sleeves.
i know their current figures are shitty but i'd like to see their prospectus before finally crossing the bank out.

Time will tell. If they want to do a PO based on <3B in profit, they must be taking us for suckers. This PO fever is really catching!

[quote author=Babs_O link=topic=93896.msg1689219#msg1689219 date=1195241706]easimoni. Thanks to wema too bought @ N3.5 and in less than a year it is worth N15. Fantastic!!!. It covers my losses in Conoil in which I though I bought at a discount at N 72 and is worth N59 now. I could be off to US disney next holiday season after all the traffic jams and blackouts here in Nigeria when I take profit. Thus it really looks like a waste of time looking for a US / UK stockbroker for now.[/quote]Amen Bro! Amen.

frankiriri:
Zenith securities charges me less than 1% ( 1.62% all inclusive) to buy. I think the commision rate is 1% flat. but you will need to have N5m to open an account.

Could it be because you are an insider?

[quote author=Babs_O link=topic=93896.msg1689051#msg1689051 date=1195238306]Hispy99
Please what is your experience on US stock trading. Is it worth it or NSE is the place to be right now and US stocks is a waste of time. Tots / eperience on this please.[/quote]Two companies have the same PE. The one in naija grows earnings at 100%, therefore, the price must double for the PE to stay the same. The one in the US grows earnings at 10% (if you are lucky), therefore, the price must grow at 10% for the PE to remain the same. I'm not a rocket scientist but the answer is pretty clear.

The US stock market has long-term retuns of 12%, Warren Buffet = 24%, Peter Lynch = 29%, Easimoni = 100+% p.a. over the last 3 yrs _{(thank God for Wema bank)}

I'd only open a US account when it's time to diversify. Concentration builds wealth, diversification preserves it.

yodiyokun:
THis is hot tip for Big boys only not those of us dealing in thousands

Wassup with the false modesty? . U know that I know that you move the Market and make big thigs happen.

pumping777:
Thanks for this hot tip. I had no clue. Every little % counts in this game

Muchas Gracias from me as well. My broker is about to receive a sinker.

Allcorrect:
Please which broker do u use easimoni??

Lead Capital

FatherOF2:
Aha now i get it.Your broker must be cheating you big time.
Below are SEC approved rates for transactions.

BUY SIDE (VAT inclusive and all sub-charges)
 1.83%

SELL SIDE (VAT inclusive and all sub-charges)
 2.123%.

Here's is my contract note from my Wema sale

Consideration xxxxxxx
Contract Stamp 0.0750%
Commission 1.5000%
VAT                 0.0750%
CSCSFee         0.4725%
NSEFee           0.5250%
Total                  2.648%

If you pay only 2.13% to sell (pls double check), it means your broker commission is 1% and it's time for me to switch!

Abeg, who be your broker? Or is 1% only for the BIG BOYS?  

flakom:
Hello gurus in the house,
You've all really being helpful.
Is it wise to buy Crusader at 4.74 and if so, when do u think i should bail out?
Thanks.

If u buy tomorrow, Crusader will be at ~N5 (assuming the bulls continue). Still a good deal but 10% above my avg price. Dunno when you should bail and why do you want to bail? If the bulls run out of money soon, the stock could come crashing back to N4. You need to close ya eye for 6 months. It should touch N6 in 1Q 08.

shigidi:
@ easimoni,
i need some advice. im kind of caught in a dilemma. i couldnt catch nigerian german chemicals and now im stuck as to what to get. im trying to get the best fundamental stocks i can.
i want dangote sugar. but after that im torn between beta glass and longman(december year ending stocks). both have forward pes of 9 right now and they look juicy, im however worried as to if beta glass will still appreciate from 14 naira or if longman will still appreciate. im kind of confused. can you please advise.

Me? I have 1/3 of my portfolio sitting in CASH (proceeds from Wema  ). I was too slow to re-invest and now the bull has left the station. I'm watching closely coz I don't want to fight with the bulls ruling the market at the moment.

So what should WE do? I like DangSugar as well. If I had to choose btwn Loangman and Beta, I'll go Beta. Longman's 4Q is too large a % of the FY for my comfort. Beta is more "trendable".

At the moment, I'm not seeing any home runs o! And I'm sitting on cash.  

ololufemi:
Easimoni,
Any news about Oceanic's result. I can smell something cooking there.
Abeg reply, you no dey reply person post sef.
No dey show how u big reach oh

Ki lo de? I no go work again?
Dunno nothnig about Oceanic results. Might be a tad early to be asking for YE Sept 07 results. It should beat the prospectus forecast but still a bit too rich for my blood; they sold tooooo many shares.

shigidi:
well let me help you out there. the offer is quite expensive. forward pe is 22 for 2008, some banks have better forward pes than that. maybe you should hold and buy later next year.

Some banks? More like all banks except First Inland and Spring. Bagco is the most expensive offer I've looked at this year. Not even close.

First Inland on TS. Dem self wan do PO. they can't feed the current shareholders and they are taking on more. This is clearly a bank that needs to grow thru debt till it can "show us the money"

hispy99:
you mean his irresponsible statement of N4.35 trillion earnings in 3 years?

Na YAM?

FatherOF2:
Hey TopGun, That's good. 2 MONTHS AGO.That means you were in lose last week then.

Fatherof2,
I'm a bit concerned with your strategy of making 25% gains in days/weeks based on rumours and jumping ship after you cross your magic number. Even for naija, where out-of-the-box thinking seems to work in the NSE, your "stick and move" startegy makes me nervous. If I'd jumped ship after making 25% on Wema (which I bough ~N4.3), how would I have ridden it to 14? The cost of transactions in the NSE are too high. You have to sell at 7% above your buy price just to break even. + research has shown that if you hold a stock for 12 months, 90% of your gains come in 3 to 5 5-7 day spurts. You miss those spurts, you don't make as much money as you should.

What if your rumours turn out to be false? Did you also know that those peddling rumours are often guilty of insider trading. If you KNOW that a bank is about to issue a bonus, the insider who told you is guilty of breaking the law. Sure, gist is often true, but I held 80% of my 'folio in Wema for most of 2007. I heard every gist imaginable, 90% of them fizzled out - nothing but noise. But one thing remained the same; the potential I saw for the 07/08 results.

Anyway, the goal is to find what works for you and stick to it. If sticking and moving works for you; it's all good but it won't work for most people.

Don't take offense and if you have gist, pls share o  _{(as long as you don't ask anyone to compromise themselves)}

chokit:
@all
We are talking about law union crusader and unic.Kindly shed more light on Lasaco is a good buy like the rest ,proj eps of 0.11 and proj pe of 24.05 (Nigeria.securities).In which order can we put them ?

Femtex:
To all the Gurus,

Nobody is even talking about Lasaco. Do we have their Q3 yet?

We don't have Lasaco's 3Q results yet. It's due anyday now. Lasaco issued almost 6B shares following the Sept 06 hybird offer. The total is now 7.404B shares, forward PE based on the half year result (N560M PAT) is 18 (and climbing). Not a bad deal but Crusader, Unic and Law Union are all cheaper.

pumping777:
I have 3.1B outstanding for Lawunion. I could be wrong on that one but I hope I'm not!!! I included the oversubscribed shares for the last PO.

Notes from my S. Sheet regarding Law Union Shares:
1.8B shares PO was oversubscribed to 135.4% =2.437 B shares. Previously 1B. Total now 3.437B. NSE listed 0.637B supplementary allotment for oversubscription on Oct 3 07

@Whitelexi,
AIICO is on TS. It's on the proshare front page. They r planning a PO to add 2.5B shares.

lawal,
Crusader is the Ins Coy to buy. Unic and Law Union and Rock are also good. Reading thru the last 20 pgs of this thread would do you a world of good.

RoughCut:
I still have ~30% of my WEMA left. According to proshareng it is going to be  issued share capital reconstruction which means they cancel some shares and adjust the price accordingly. Depends on what ratio they want to do the reverse split if they reduce the shares outstanding (about 10B) by half it means  my holding will reduce in half but double the price which makes the value of my holding the same i.e assuming they do a 2:1 reverse split.

That way they can accommodate the foreign equity without doing a PO. The proportion of the cancelled  shares will simply be sold to the foreign investor in return for cash injection

Those guys are very very  smart many igbosas to them!

My interpretation is that the value of the shares I still own will remain the same but the PE/EPS will still get diluted once the cash injection for shares is effected. It's still the same effects as a PO but without the proliferation of shares/shareholders which causes excessive price volatility. I'll need more details to see if it's really a good deal or not.

aktopgun,
when you say missed, did you sell or fail to sell? I hope you sold so you can quickly buy some Ins Coys with the proceeds.

EMMAACHILE:
Seems Wema has been placed on technical suspension.
Can someone confirm this?

I see that the price did not move in any direction today. For such an in-demand stock, that is a sure sign of TS. _{Phew. That was close!}

ololufemi:
Osazeet, Wont pick an argument with you.

Anyway guys News Flash for Results

Check Below and Happy Viewing

Thanks for the news. Fidelity now projects well towards the 2008 FY forecast in the PO prospectus. Those who bought should now have more confidence in their decision. I still maintain that FCMB's numbers were slightly better.