₦airaland Forum

The answer is NO. It all revolves around PDP. Either of ACN or CPC has to step down for there to be some possibility of runoff.

Follow this thread and see what some political analysts have done here on nairaland: https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-628352.0.html

Also, it is better to wait for the official INEC results before making certain conclusions.

Carry on boss!!! You are d man. Nothing do you. The best is yet to come.

Those that have branded GEJ as a weakling will hide in shame.
Fresh Air!

I have pushed GEJ into the wall and he still has the margin!!!

The SW is a very strong region! If SW gives GEJ good support, the margin will be soooo wide!

This sounds like a basket-mouth joke!

[quote author=ekt_bear link=topic=628352.msg8089879#msg8089879 date=1302381948]NE is solidy Buhari, no? When did it become a battle ground?[/quote]I added NE to battle grounds because I cannot tell exactly how much GEJ may be able to get from there. In NW, I have judiciously given BB 90% in his key states and 65% in places like Kano. Any less vote BB gets is to GEJ's advantage. I cannot assume same for NE.

Secondly, I assume GEJ's SE+SS will cancel out with Buhari's NW votes.

My aim is to push GEJ's chances to the wall and see what happens.

That is exactly what we want!

For the benefit of Nigeria, we should have a forward thinking, unifying president and a strong Parliament. That is the recipe for transparency and development. We do not need a one sided house.

Don't mistake GEJ's quietness for foolishness. People have always judged him by his looks. The fact that he is where he is today says something about what he has inside. No be by gra-gra

As I said when there was a failure, both have the credit,

JEGA: 80% of the credit for conducting the process.
GEJ: 20% of the credit for providing all the resources and support.

Now nobody should dare accuse GEJ of being behind the sabotage. He has proven that he wants a free and fair process.

[quote author=ekt_bear link=topic=642555.msg8089573#msg8089573 date=1302378912]Not sure it is good for any state to be controlled by one party. You need opposition. I hope the voters know what they are doing  [/quote]Yeah, a little touch of some opposition may be helpful. The result will help ACN become stronger at the federal level. They will decide a lot of things this time.
They are using their brains while some others are using brute force.

What I did was to use a turnout of 65% in SE + 75% in SS and 90% turnout in NE+NW. I still got a similar result.

To me, the results for SE, SS and NW may not vary much from expectation.
The battle grounds are SW, NE and NC. These are the regions that will determine the margin. Any last minute surprises can shake the results.

^ That was almost the exact same result I got. 

ACN needs to make a very strong statement with their votes even if they do not win. They need to hold tight to their votes to show their strength and set the stage for a takeover in 2015. GEJ will do better than today but I do not think his SW votes will go far beyond 50% if there is an alliance.

Give it up for JEGA and GEJ-A! Lol

Goodluck to Nigeria.

An ACN controlled NASS will be excellent (but very unlikely). It will be a great positioning for 2015. ACN has always proven to be strategic and calculated. We need such opposition to put the executive on their toes. If it is what I think, we are being set up for greatness.

@aletheia, Yeah, I noticed. CPC is fast alienating ANPP.  

@danjohn, you are right. The chances of PDP winning is more like 60% ^{(quite conservative)} if no alliance and 50% if there is an alliance. CPC has a 40% chance of causing a runoff if no alliance and 50% if there is an alliance. ACN chance of winning is 0% but if Buhari steps down (very unlikely), the chances may rise to 30%.

Also, it is clearer that the best CPC can get in the first ballot is a runoff. They simply do not have the needed spread in the south.

Seems we will have a 100% ACN Lagos State!

Ok Thanks. I just modelled a very tight scenario where the final result had the winner at 43% of votes. It will be a very close call but the odds still favor GEJ a lot. From today, it will be tough for CPC to get votes from SW states. CPC will so clear the North as expected.

There was no twitter or facebook or nairaland for us to consult back then. There is definitely more transparency. Information/ communication has played a key role in this election. However, let's see if the results tally with what was observed at the polling booths.

As at now, it is the freest an fairest Parliamentary election ever!!! BBC is already commending the conduct of the election. I hope we get it right in the presidential and governorship elections also.

Yes, the local factors are very strong unlike in the presidential. Looking back at your model, I see you have even given the whole of SW including Lagos to ACN. Great job.

Question: Talking about majority of votes cast, does the winner need to have over 50% of votes to win in the first ballot. Or just majority even if it is less than 50%?

From the results of parliamentary election so far, it looks like the Ribadu votes may be higher than estimated in Lagos. The Lagosians are so much in love with ACN.

Lets try to adjust our models along the lines of the results of the Parliamentary elections. 

Abegii make somebody clap for Fashola!!! The Fashola effect is very strong in Lagos. It is showing on all the results.

Sarahluv:
What do they want to achieve with all these murders? I hate it when these cowardly people just kill as if they can give life.
efisher, what does the line in red mean? Don't tell me daily Trust wrote this down this way?

Me too, I wonder what they meant. I think the reporter meant to say "plucked out". Anyway, the report has been changed now. You can follow the link to the story.

More from punch: http://www.punchng.com/Articl.aspx?theartic=Art2011040914474882

A suspected bomber has reportedly died in an explosion at a polling unit in Unguwar Doki near Monday Market in Maiduguri, Borno State.

The explosion, which occurred as accreditation of voters was underway, led to a fire at the abandoned nearby Maiduguri International Hotel.

Reports said the dead man was trying to detonate the bomb when he blew himself up accidentally. An unspecified number of people were injured in the blast and rushed to the hospital.

Sorry but the peace has been shattered by some animals!!!

Bomb blast at a polling unit in Maiduguri

A bomb blast had occurred at a polling centre at Unguwar Doki of Maiduguri metropolis and injured more than ten people. The hands and legs of a police woman who was stationed at the centre were chopped off while the two eyes of the presiding officer were flocked out by the ravaging blast which occurred around 11.50am shortly before the commencement of voting.

Dozens of military personnel and anti bomb squad of the police were seen at the scene. Though the commandant of the Joint Task Force (JTF), a lieutenant colonel was seen at the scene, he did  not speak to journalist.

Witnesses said it will be difficult to identify the people that dropped the bomb as everybody at the scene was seen as a potential voter.

“I am afraid, the police woman and the INEC man may likely die because of the intensity of the injuries they sustained,” one of the witnesses said.
Most of the victims were taken to the emergency unit of the University of Maiduguri Teaching Hospital.

http://www.dailytrust.dailytrust.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=16510:bomb-blast-at-a-polling-unit-in-maiduguri&catid=76:election-2011&Itemid=163

See the details from Daily Trust:

A bomb blast had occurred at a polling centre at Unguwar Doki of Maiduguri metropolis and injured more than ten people. The hands and legs of a police woman who was stationed at the centre were chopped off while the two eyes of the presiding officer were flocked out by the ravaging blast which occurred around 11.50am shortly before the commencement of voting.

Dozens of military personnel and anti bomb squad of the police were seen at the scene. Though the commandant of the Joint Task Force (JTF), a lieutenant colonel was seen at the scene, he did  not speak to journalist.

Witnesses said it will be difficult to identify the people that dropped the bomb as everybody at the scene was seen as a potential voter.

“I am afraid, the police woman and the INEC man may likely die because of the intensity of the injuries they sustained,” one of the witnesses said.
Most of the victims were taken to the emergency unit of the University of Maiduguri Teaching Hospital.

http://www.dailytrust.dailytrust.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=16510:bomb-blast-at-a-polling-unit-in-maiduguri&catid=76:election-2011&Itemid=163

Terrible!

[size=16pt]No "serving" corps member died in Suleja - NYSC DG[/size]

The National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) has denied media reports that many corps members died in Friday's explosion at the INEC office in Suleja, Niger.

The Direcor-General of the scheme, Brig.-Gen. Ismaila Tsiga, however, told the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) in a telephone interview on Saturday that two ex-corps members died in the blast.

Tsiga also told NAN that eight serving corps members were injured in the incident and were responding to treatment in hospitals.

Sections of the Nigerian media had reported that between six and 25 serving corps members died in the Friday evening explosion, which occured as INEC officials, including corps members, gathered to collect voting materials for Saturday's National Assembly election.

The explosion had forced INEC to postpone Saturday's election in Suleja. (NAN)

http://www.dailytrust.dailytrust.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=16507:no-corps-member-died-in-suleja-nysc-dg&catid=76:election-2011&Itemid=163

Who is ACPN backing for Presidency?

“Let me tell you the truth by the spirit of God, neither Obasanjo, Atiku, IBB and this tall one Muhammadu Buhari are part of the new. They are part of the old that is decaying. That old one is passing away. The new is emerging and these ones are not part of the new.”

- Pastor Tunde Bakare in the Punch of Monday, October 2, 2006 Page 8

Could Ribadu be part of the "new" he was referring to when he made this statement ^{(before the carrot)}?

Imagine what would have happened if Buhari and Bakare had dropped their ambitions on time in order to give Ribadu their full support. They would have gone round the nation and campaigned together with one voice. With the backing of people like Wole Soyinka and Fashola in the South West and Adams Oshiomhole in the SS, the opposition would have had the force of a tsunami. ACN has the structures and the good records, Buhari has significant followership in the North. I bet it would have been a different story. Unfortunately, these "two greedy men" have been consumed by the lust for power. I hope they get it right in 2015.

Everywhere is so quiet! Even on nairaland, the enthusiasm witnessed last Saturday has vanished into thin air!!! I guess the terrible events of yesterday has also contributed.

Ok maybe you would prefer it this way:

"I wonder why the old man is so greedy. How can an internationally recognized lawyer/AIG/politician/anti-corruption czar ably supported by an accomplished accountant/banker/businessman/entrepreneur step down for one old-soldier/ex-military dictator/pensioner/election loser assisted by a local pastor/small-time lawyer/activist turned politician." 

I do not need to write their biographies in order to make my point.

I wonder why the old man is so greedy. How can an internationally recognized lawyer ably supported by an accomplished banker step down for one old-soldier and a local pastor?