Ektbear's Posts
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Nice post. |
@whoever said that agriculture can exceed oil earnings, lmao. @whoever pointed out that the same onions imported from the North can be imported elsewhere, well done. Nobody will starve if the country splits. You just buy onions/tomatoes from Arewa Republic. And if they refuse to sell, buy from Benin Republic or Cameroon ![]() |
May he rest in peace ![]() |
seanet02:Well said. |
@Aigbofa: Beaf is mostly correct in this particular case. Things changed a lot Saturday. What specifically do you disagree with? |
@Ystranger: I don't believe in socialism. I think it is fine for rich countries that don't mind the slower economic growth and inefficiency of huge government. But poor countries? Socialism in 3rd world countries makes no sense. You need to chase growth as much as possible. Goal should be 10%+ GDP growth every year, not 3% GDP growth with some large socialist state. Spending a bunch of time worrying about how to share a tiny pie (socialism) seems counterproductive. I'd rather have inequitable sharing of a very large, rapidly growing pie (capitalism.) From observing and contrasting India and China over the past 20 years or so, it should be clear that socialism actually diminishes average wealth/happiness rather than increasing it. Don't quote me on this, but likely in 1980, their GDP/capita were relatively similar. One country wasted years playing around with things that don't work (socialism) and today has a GDP/capita no better than that of Nigeria. The other country realized, "Hey, let's switch to a free-market, manufacturing based economy", and now their GDP/capita is like 3-4 times that of India, and their citizens are way better off. Anyway, I believe in the following services one might associate with socialists: - Healthcare - Free and mandatory K-12 education - A few other things But nationalization? Dangerous ground. I guess for you, your motivation is, "Hey, MTN is making money hand over fist. I don't want to see that money leaving YLand." Fine, if that is the case, you can: - Heavily tax MTN. - Encourage competitors to sprout up to drive down their profit margins. - Encourage some rich YLand businessman to buy MTN, maybe giving him a bit of assistance securing a loan. Etc, etc. But the last thing you should do is to take public funds intended for social services and spend them on non-core competencies. Plus, governments generally do a crappy job of running private businesses. Fastest way to kill the profitability and effectiveness of MTN imo would be to have a government take it over. |
[quote author=ndu_chucks link=topic=651455.msg8175157#msg8175157 date=1303392301]@ekt_bear, why negotiate for any of the oil in the ND region? If you want to split, let them carry their oil resources and go. The off-shore oil is what must be negotiated, any arrangement which calls for 100% control of that oil by the coastal aread in less that 300years, is dead on arrival.[/quote]Lol. There is no chance of them agreeing to that. Territorial water rights are an integral part of a nation. If if they agreed to it, they'd renege after some years. I would't agree to that if I were them. . . I'd say F off. Regarding "dead on arrival". . . sounds like a good way to blow the little good-will you have. Isn't like you control an army or have some other leverage to force them to agree. If they say no, then the status quo continues. One in which they'll eventually make you (and I) their slaves. |
@SEFAGO: Why wouldn't they agree? Pay out a 5-10 year lifeline so that your neighbor doesn't starve to death, and in exchange you get your freedom and can chop the remaining money for all eternity (or until the oil runs out). Or do you think they could just say, "Screw that, no money, we'll just secede outright?" And if they could unilaterally tell us to screw off, why wouldn't they do it right now? It is like the deadbeat cousin you have who has been living in your spare room. You can either kick him out to recover your space, or give him a month to look for a job and find his own crib. I don't think we've pissed off Ondo, Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, etc enough that they'd just tell us to F off. Bros, so let us have a strong economic plan before we cut out of Nigeria one that is very very strong.I completely agree. I have no desire to hop from the frying pan into the fire Firm financial foundation for Yorubaland before secession.If our economy does kick in though, I would prefer a more socialist framework for our government, centralized health care systems, free and strong public school education (from the primary to tertiary level) with little to no private schools. These things tend to lessen corruption. We can bring in big business but we should tow the line of building a strong middle class group.Err, I'm not quite a socialist. I'm not sure about centralized health care, but universal health care is certainly a must-have. Free public school . . . well, I agree on the free part. Public schools aren't really the best way to efficiently spend money while meeting educational objectives. I prefer private schools + voucher system to public schools. Let the FG come up with the money, set the standards and testing, and let private industry run the schools. I personally think that we should also try and strip/downplay people of their local identity (Egba, Awori, Itsekiri, Ekiti and just homogenize the country). Like remove state of origin from government records or census data and use state of residence.Totally agree. Though I think that this is already sort of happening. . . urbanization+intermarriage+Yoruba language/culture weakening local ones has really helped a lot. Anyway, definitely ban it. Society shouldn't care about LGA of origin, religion, etc. All of that is private stuff. |
[quote author=Jenifa_ link=topic=651455.msg8174770#msg8174770 date=1303370367]ekitibear and sefago, are you guys planning to become politicians or something?[/quote]I'd prefer not to be. If I see that Yorubaland is on the right track, I can pursue stuff that I'd probably enjoy doing more. But if my country needs me, I'll be willing to serve in whatever capacity is needed. anyways, which region do you think has a stronger manufacturing base or potential to develop one? SW or SE? I think SE. so you should be scared.Why? What competitive advantage do they have over us? I don't think they'll be able to produce electricity any cheaper than we will. And we'll have a seaport of our own. Not only Lagos, but this Olokola Deep Seaport we are building in Ogun/Ondo axis. So I don't see why we are at any disadvantage. In any case, they aren't really relevant for our own manufacturing. . . it is countries like China, Taiwan, other manufacturing hubs in East Asia. Can you meet the same price points for producing goods that they can? With electricity, I think we can. And if we meet those price points (or aren't too far off), then the sky is the limit. You can then dominate the local West African export market, and then expand to other markets in Africa and beyond. Ogun/Ondo axis should be the manufacturing hub of West Africa (at least). |
SEFAGO:I dunno. You could have them sign something witnessed by the international community, and have it paid into a special account administered by say the UN. 300 years, of course they'd find a way to renege. But 5-20 years is pretty doable, imo. Maybe I'm full of crap though, who knows. |
They know it was rigged, but don't care. Or at least, not enough to interfere/withdraw their approval of the outcome. Unfortunate and might seem unfair, but that is life. They have no incentive to stick their neck out. |
@Sefago: You raise a lot of good points. Especially about the non-obvious ways in which the SW economy is dependent on oil. Wish there was publicly available state/region GDP data that would shed some insight into this. I'm not suggesting doing it tomorrow. Hastily doing it would be a big shock to the system and probably lead to disaster. I'm shooting more for being ready by say 2019, 2023. Something like that. 12 years should be enough time to prepare. I think that in winding up Nigeria, one could negotiate at the minimum with the current oil-producing states some sort of 5-10 year deal that allows you to receive allocation money for that time. This will give you a lot of breathing move to ease the transition. I don't agree about the Shell stuff. Everybody and their mamma is interested in extracting oil today. It isn't like the price of oil is $30/barrel. If no Shell, Petrobras/Sinopec/etc dey. It will take some time to start producing, but if you negotiate the above 5-10 year deal like I said, you'll have some cushion. Regarding presidency stuff. . . nobody will give a sh1t about it if you make the FG weak. That is why I'm for this LGA resource control stuff. FG should be as bare bones and minimalist as possible. The smaller it is, the less whining and complaining about, "Hey, it is Oyo's turn", etc. |
Whao! so we have to break it down to LGAs. Dont know how feasible that will be. Not also sure how it will work, that will only aid urbanization of some LGAs I think.I'm pro urbanization. Cities are the future of Africa, not rural villages. And what happens to your Ekiti and Oyo States?Is it the well-being of the Ekiti State that i am concerned about, or that of the people? The long-term well being of the people is most important to me, not the geo-political entity called Ekiti State. If Ilaje turns to Riyadh, won't that create lots of jobs and economic opportunity for the Ekiti people? BTW, I'm not suggesting implementing this near-total resource control right away btw. I think Ekiti is at 10% IGR, some horrific # like that. Immediately cutting off revenue would cause a lot of suffering. . . lots of teachers laid off, public services scrapped, etc. But how about some formula over time that gradually reduces its dependence on the FG (or in this case, the Yoruba Federation) and forces us to innovate and find new revenue sources? Say, keep current allocations, but decrease them by 5% a year over a 20 year period. Something like that. If we cannot increase revenue by 5% per year, we deserve to be poor. That is a very manageable and reachable target. send them back to farm? Some mechanized farming I guessIf infrastructure (roads, train, electricity, etc) is good, we could manufacture. Honestly, Yorubaland isn't that big. . . it isn't as if Ekiti is Siberia Anything industrial that can be done in Lagos or Ogun, we can do in Ekiti (again, assuming infrastructure is good), and do competitively (transportation costs are higher, but labor will be cheaper.) |
Katsumoto:Hehe Cannot blame him; self-interest is natural. @Sefago: Why are you so pessimistic about the SWs future prospects? roughly 10% of Nigeria's oil comes from Ondo. If we split, then Lagos controls its own port revenue. We contribute far more to VAT than we get out. The net change in money might actually not be too negative. Furthermore, the oil reserves offshore our coast are substantial. As well as the 43 billion barrels of oil sands in the Lagos-Ogun-Ondo-Edo axis. Investment can and will come. Also, what is wrong with Ondo controlling the lion's share of the resources produced from it in a SW nation? That is perfectly fine by me. Heck, not only should every state largely control what it produces, I'd go so far as to say every LGA should as well. If the Ilajes turn their LGAs into Riyadh with their oil wealth, that is perfectly fine by me; it still benefits Yorubaland as a whole. They'll need talent and labor to build their city. So long as they don't discriminate against me for being not Ilaje, then what is the problem? Ondo should control whatever oil it produces, Lagos should control its ports, Ogun should get extract income from its factories, etc, etc. I envision a Yoruba Federation, not some heavy-handed, centralist Yoruba government. We cannot leave Nigeria only to replicate the mistakes made there. |
@Nadanbata: Hrm. I keep reading your posts and getting a sense that you haven't picked up on what happened this weekend. Let me very blunt. The PDP has been taken over by a new clique, primarily SS based (with some folk from the SE who think themselves allies, but will soon find out that they are slaves this upcoming gubernatorial election.) By taking power, this clique has kicked out you Northern boys. In order to do this, they rigged an election massively. Everyone knows it was rigged. Yet the entire world is approving of these elections, calling them the freest and fairest in the world. Your CPC and the North will never probably never taste power in this country again (at least while it remains one.) If it does, it will only be with the help of the SW (but it looks like our leadership is working with this PDP clique.) But it is quite likely that this clique, with full control of the federal apparatus can defeat both of us, even working in concert. You need to stop these delusional dreams of yours and wake up to reality. There is no "we" anymore. This "we" type of language that Northerners use to pretend our differences don't exist only makes sense when you are running things. Notice that Goodluck is now the one using the "we" language ![]() I think your boy ndu_chucks gets it, but you don't seem to. Talk to him a bit and he will explain to you what is what. |
Ystranger:+1000. I guess in nation-building, too many cooks (Yoruba, Hausa, Igbo, and the many other groups in naija) spoils the stew. Most successful nations have one dominant cook. And nations that don't follow this template for the most part either fail, or practice some sort of strong federalism/autonomy that makes the constituent components essentially independent. |
[quote author=ndu_chucks link=topic=651455.msg8174542#msg8174542 date=1303357739]Dredge the Niger river,[/quote]It should be dredged, yes. But whether it is or not, you won't own downstream. That the river is dredged doesn't mean you get to take your ships through another man's territory. work out a very amicable sharing formula for offshore oil, for the next 300years,300 years is obviously too long. If you are still dependent on oil wealth in even 20 years time and haven't found another revenue source, you'll have failed. I suspect they'd be willing to give you (and I, since I am from Ekiti, a non-oil producing state) 20 years of the CURRENT oil sharing formula, then some amount rapidly decaying after that, eventually being 0 by year 40 or so. Any of course, any new reserves found, any new resources found remain with the subsequent states. Your best bet really is to shake down the Abachas, IBBs, and the other such families who have plundered government money. You can probably recover $10 or $20 billion from them. If that lump-sum of cash is invested wisely, you will prosper. and you people can go in peace. I'm pretty sure we may have to come and rescue you from annihilating yourselves with 2 years of your separation.Irrelevant. Nobody would want your help anyway, they'd ask for the UN, EU or AU to help. |
OAM4J:Wouldn't the market size of the Economic Community of the Niger and Benue Rivers be exactly equal to that of the Nigerian Federation? Besides there is beauty in our diversity.Err, what Beauty, ke? What does that have to do with what we are talking about? ![]() Tell me, will you prefer US as it is or do you think each state will fair better on its own?But. . . we are very happy with the status quo in the US. There aren't really separatist movements. It isn't one size fits all. That Nigeria is better off splitting doesn't mean the US is too. Or if you think Nigeria should stay one, does that mean the US and Canada should merge into one country? The US and Canada have FAAAAR more cultural and ethnic similarity than say Yoruba, Igbo and Hausa. Yet they are happy as two separate countries. Why is it by force for Nigeria to remain one? |
Imo, Economic Community of the Niger and Benue Rivers >>>> Nigeria. Everyone keeps what he earns, and we negotiate a free trade zone of some sort. Common currency is fine. Separate governments, separate police forces, no ability for one state to shake down another for cash. This is true federalism. In fact, a federalism so pure and true, it is indistinguishable from having separate nations ![]() |
OAM4J:What practical difference is there between that and splitting up? Why not just divide? They are the same thing. . . except you have to deal with an additional layer of bureaucracy at the center. Why not cut out that additional layer? The above federation you propose, why wouldn't it be better to just have a customs union of some sort instead? NAFTA, essentially? |
Relative to the centralized, top-down presidential system we have now, yes. The center needs to be weak (or possibly nonexistent), not strong. |
^-- Lol. The underage voters probably weren't voting for GEJ. Anyway, the most important thing is to answer the following two questions: 1) How was 70%+ turnout achieved in so many states that just a week before recorded turnout in the 30s? 2) How much (if any) underage voting took place in the North? Who knows, maybe there was rigging in the SW too. But we need answers to all of these questions. It isn't enough to pretend that rigging in one place canceled out underaged voting in another place. We cannot run a democracy or society built on fraud. |
Nadanbata:I'm starting to think that the elites are not really the problem. They are a symptom of the disease, not the disease itself. If these elites are defeated, new elites will rise up to take their spots. It is Animal Farm-type sh1t. The elites are not the problem, the system is. The British for the most part designed Nigeria properly. Three independent states meeting together at the middle in a weak federation. Unfortunately, the mistake they made is that they did not go far enough. They simply should have granted independence to three separate nations rather than one. Independent nations is the correct model for Nigeria, not the current setup. |
^-- Please, ignore him. Isn't worth your time. |
@Nadanbata: 1. I don't want to spend too much time debating the merits of splitting for reasons X, Y, and Z. Long story short, if the constituent components of Nigeria feel the need to part ways, they don't really owe anyone an explanation for their feelings. 2. I believe in taking large problems and breaking them down into smaller, more manageable chunks. There is no economy of scale, greater efficiency we get from being one country. Nothing is really gained. It is really just a game for sharing the Niger Delta's oil wealth, really. 3. Already, Nigeria has been logically split up into 6 zones. At least in theory (ignoring oil wealth, the glue that binds the country together), I don't see why Zone A should be able to block Zone B from leaving Nigeria, if they so desire. Territorial integrity is important. . . but the current system is not working, and needs to be revisited. Really, if there was no money at stake, we'd all have split up already. |
Nadanbata:No, it isn't that hard. Chekoslovakia split up pretty easily and amicably. Follow the same template that they used. Or the Soviet Union used. They negotiated a split in under one year. It isn't as hard as you say. Plus I still need an explnation of how splitting will eliminate the corruption thats holding us back? Or Is people beleive the corrupted leaders up North are causing the 419 in the Delta? Or rather is it your own leaders causing your own 419?.Again, corruption is not the only reason to split the country. There are plenty of other good reasons. |
[quote author=Kilode?! link=topic=651455.msg8174238#msg8174238 date=1303346792]@eku_ bear, Thank you! so the kids melted one southern heart? Now we are getting there. [/quote]My heart is not made of stone, hehe ![]() Nadanbata:Sure, it is possible that corruption won't decrease. But is corruption the only reason to split apart the country? No, it is not. For the same people manipulating us will be there. This why Its better we sort out the problem together for we would all be much better off than going individually in the long run.What is your argument for the text in bold? Why would we be better sorting out our problems all together rather than separately? Sometimes, it is easier to break a big problem into several smaller, more manageable chunks. The split would be impractical anway. How would you do it ? What if some dont agree with how it is carried out? Remember the UN only recgonises NIGERIA, not Arewa Republic, or Ijaw Republic, Or Yoruba Land etc.Well, splitting off Yorubaland at least would be easy. It was only conquered by the colonialists in the 1800s. So there is still plenty of documentation available to say who owned what, what the boundaries are. We can just revert back to the status quo in say 1850, and then have the numerous separate states then negotiate how they want to join together. |
Prof Aluko has noticed. Ambassador Campbell noticed. El Rufai has noticed. Sahara Reporters noticed. There is a growing crescendo of people who recognize that the election results are suspect. Buhari and the CPC claim that they cannot be bought with a government of national unity. So what is the end game? How does this situation resolve itself? Next month or so will be pretty interesting. |
^-- That is a great video ![]() Your emphasis on "de-humanize" is important. We cannot forget that the guy on the other side (Hausa) in this case, are flesh and blood humans just like you and me. That video helps emphasize this point. |
That means that in one week, the number of people who came to the polls in Imo for the National Assembly elections almost tripled (from 32.9% voter turnout) for the Presidential elections? Now that may however be a reflection of the high anxiety over the fact of the news of registration numbers that gave such overwhelming advantage to the SW and NW. , but I will be hard-pressed to go along COMPLETELY with that fact. It turned out that SW voter turnout was abysmal (32%) while NW show was just above 50% (actually 54.5%). Next, let us look at Lagos State: 1,945,044 voters in the presidential elections, out of 6,108,069 registered voters for a 31.8% voter turn out. But on April 9 we had (again using INEC figures): - Lagos Central: 301,570 voters (won by ACN's Remi Tinubu 202,506) - Lagos East: 320,372 total voters (won ACN's Gbenga Ashafa 222,439) - Lagos West: 812,924 total voters (won by ACN's Ganiyu Solomon 503,786) ------------------------------------------------- TOTAL: 1,434,866 total voters ------------------------------------------------ This amounted to a 23.9% voter turn-out - meaning that the presidential turnout step-up by less than 10% was quite believable. Finally, I looked at Katsina, which on April 16 had 52.5% turn out with 1,639,532 voters out of 3,126,898 registered. On April 9 for Katsina we had: - Katsina North (395,693 voters) (won by Audu Yandoma of CPC 315,324 votes) - Katsina South (546,549 voters) (won by Abu Ibrahim of CPC 324,652 votes) - Katsina Central (430,886 voters) (won by Ahmed Store of CPC 217,154 votes) ------------------------------------------------- TOTAL: 1,373,128 voters for a voter turnout of 43.9%, again for an increase of less than 10% going up to the presidential race. By the way, the same analysis done COUNTRY-wide (including in the North) to compare April 9 to April 16 will be found in Table 4 below. I just wanted to use that these examples to indicate some discrepant suspicion, that is all, but there could be good explanations for them for the delays - bad roads, delayed materials - some lame. Please understand that I do not doubt the % of votes given to Jonathan in the SE and SS, given the almost complete lack of competition in those areas by Buhari and Ribadu. With an incumbent "Easterner", a like-able Otuoke son with an Ogbia-Ijaw name like Ebele (that can be confused with Ebel(r)echukwu) and a nickname Azikiwe being the man to vote for, he was a shoo-in. But what can be jiggled is the TOTAL turnout, which an Excel spreadsheet can easily be used to work to the answer: just hold the percentages fixed, but juggle the total voters turnout figure to get a pre-determined national outcome - and by the way, just in case rigging is going on elsewhere too, where full advantage is being taken of the large differential registration of the NW and SW! 4. There is also the perception and the reality. Honestly, I would have loved on Election Day for results to be pouring in from all parts of the country on a random basis - this one from a SE state, then that one from NW state, then from a SW state, a couple from SS, then NE, etc. I just craved no ill-perceptions in these presidential elections. But for virtually all of the day, nothing was received from the SS and the SE, as if some reports were being held back to see what to do later. That may not have been the case - but it sure looked like it. We should watch out for that next time - both in local and national elections. 5. It is doubtful if CPC and ACN party agents were in 10% of the polling units in the SS and SE. However, that a party's polling agent is not at a polling unit does not mean it loses its right not to be cheated. Just thought that I should throw that in. We should not condone the notion of property thievery simply because the owner is not around. 6. No electoral democracy is perfect - and ours needs serious improvement. However, we must eschew violence, and rather use the courts carefully to settle our grievances. But before then, we must put honest men (like Jega) and women (yet to be fully discovered, not like those in those videos of thumb-printings!) in positions that have to do with the electoral process; deploy technology appropriately and ensure that political parties and citizens protect their votes all the way, 7. In conclusion, "Congratulations!" to President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan of Nigeria, worthy son of Otuoke village, in Ogbia-land of the Ijaw people in the Niger-Delta. Best wishes always. And there you have it. Bolaji Aluko Turning in slowly, Towards Otuoke |
4. Incumbent president Goodluck Jonathan has been declared winner and presented his certificate by INEC Chairman Prof. Jega. The only hope for Buhari to have won - or even to force a run-off - was heavy turn-out and many wins in the South-Western states, whether there was an alliance or not; he was already heavily favored in much of the North and not at all in the SS and SE. Without the alliance though, and as the numbers from various polling units (where there were absolutely no concerns about rigging) started to come in early last Saturday in the SW showing wins for Jonathan, all hope for him was lost by 6 pm Nigerian time on that day. 3. The South-South/SouthEast (SS/SE) conundrum on presidential election results is not just about percentage of voters opting for Jonathan in those states per se, but voter turnout on a state-by-state basis. They were unusually high (67% in those two regions), and as high as 86% in Bayelsa. (The Bayelsa figure was 107% of the initial provisional number). Let me give a number of examples, starting with Imo State. On April 16, it recorded 1,409,850 voters out of 1,687,293 registered voters in this presidential election, for a voter turn-out of 83.6%, right? However, in the April 9 election to the Senate of that same state, the total votes were as follows (taking them from an INEC table): - Imo East: 228,274 voters (won by Chris Anyanwu of APGA, with 84,342 votes) - Imo West: 212,957 voters (won by Hope Uzodinma of PDP, with 85,042 votes) - Imo North: 114,244 voters (won by Ambassador Nwagwu of PDP, with 60,449 votes --------------------------------------------- TOTAL: 555,475 votes --------------------------------------------- |
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Beaf is mostly correct in this particular case. Things changed a lot Saturday. What specifically do you disagree with?