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Politics › Re: On The Matter Of The 2011 Presidential Elections-Professor Mobolaji E.Aluko by ektbear: 1:36am On Apr 21, 2011
Dear Compatriots:
1. After a false and aborted start on April 2, two sets of elections have now come and  gone in Nigeria:  April 9 (National Assembly elections) and April 16 (Presidential elections).  The third round (the Gubernatorial and state assembly elections, along with some national assembly elections postponed from April 9)  will be held on Tuesday April 26.

2.  I have provided in the Appendix several summary tables and a map of the two elections so far.

3. I want to be categorical in stating that I believe strongly that so far, 2011 Elections have been better than 1999, 2003 and 2007, but there are still some slips between the cup and the lip between registration, accreditation, voting, counting, pasting, collation and announcement.

For example, with respect to the new (and verily expensive) voter registration that was embarked upon, it is true that country-wide there could have, must have been multiple registrations, and so in general registration numbers may be inflated.  I was, for example,  alarmed when between the provisional number and the final number, the number of registered voters in Niger State suddenly went from 721,478 to 2,175,421.   But the Modified Open-Secret Ballot System (MOBS) - as in June 12, 1993 -  that Jega sprung on us all made it rather difficult for people to go from polling booth to polling booth to vote due to double registration, since you had to STAY to accredit first, and then return at a set time to vote.

Therefore, on the whole, to rig in these elections, you have to be more sophisticated that in previous times.

But even then, rigging is possible.  For example, I understand that a different rigging method was introduced this time in some polling units in at least one of the states - it was phoned in to me.  That is -  multiple registration and voting AT THE SAME polling unit. This is how it worked:   Suppose there were 300 registered voters in a PU, and only 100 came to be accredited.  Then through connivance with electoral officers and intimidation of those who would protest, some of those 100 would be allowed to stay and re-accredit in place of those 200 that did not come.  Then they will also be allowed to re-vote - twice, sometimes three times.



However,  in general kudos to INEC Chairman Prof. Jega, and to President Goodluck Jonathan who appointed him. So far, we seemed to have cleaned up in major fashion the first five steps, but it seems that we still need to clean up the last two steps to prevent the possibility or actualities of what has now been called "air rigging", which can very easily be proved if the complainants insist.  That is MAJOR progress that we can (or should be able to) live with.

Hopefully, 2015 will be even much better, or even before then, April 26, 2011!
Politics › Re: The Hausas (an Alternate Pespective) by ektbear: 1:32am On Apr 21, 2011
I don't think the Hausa man is fundamentally bad. Just the culture is too hierchical. People don't question their leaders robbing them blind for many, many years with nothing to show for it.

This also makes them susceptible to be used as pawns by political leaders.

Is this the culture? Lack of education? I don't think it isn't something that cannot be fixed in time. But you need to get rid of all these useless Sultans, Emirs, generals and replace them with good leaders. And start QUESTIONING authority. If the Imam tells you something, question it. He is a man like yourself, not a god.

The indirect rule policy of the British really, really screwed them over. If the British had their real, longterm interests at heart, they'd have broken the power of th emirs, not strengthened it with indirect rule.
Politics › Re: The New Face Of Imo by ektbear: 1:26am On Apr 21, 2011
This Ohakim fella, lol.

I wonder how people will react in Imo when he overwhelmingly wins his election.

As they say, what is good for the goose (GEJ) is good for the gander (Ohakim).
Politics › Re: Ukeoma Ikechukwu Dissappears In Bauchi After Conducting Elections by ektbear: 12:56am On Apr 21, 2011
Very sad situation  sad
Politics › Re: The Nigerian 2011 Elections-An Opportunity Lost?by:Nasir Ahmed El-Rufai by ektbear: 12:48am On Apr 21, 2011
@Moves: No, he was right. People as we speak are looking more closely at the turnout data, and comparing it to the turnout that took place the previous week in the NASS elections. Very strange magic seems to have happened. . . to radically boost turnout in certain SS and SE states.

Have no fear, all mysteries, lies and frauds will be uncovered in due time cool
Politics › Re: Uk Govt Deports 52 Nigerians, Today by ektbear: 12:41am On Apr 21, 2011
^-- Ah, ok. Most of the time when people say something silly, it is in response to something. Ordinarily this sort of thread won't descend into tribalism until someone starts it. I was thinking you were ignoring the first punch thrown and only condemning the second one (rather than condemning both or letting both slide.)

Anyway, no big deal.
Politics › Re: Uk Govt Deports 52 Nigerians, Today by ektbear: 12:33am On Apr 21, 2011
Maybe you misread a bit; nobody is accusing you of claiming any specific #.

Point is, if you want to condemn one guy for claiming 99.9%. . . seems that someone else claiming 90% should be condemned (unless of course somehow you didn't see the post in this thread.)

Otherwise, double standard.

Selective condemnation/outrage is pretty silly
Politics › Re: I'm So Proud To Be A South-Westerner by ektbear: 12:08am On Apr 21, 2011
2much, others: Best bet is to ignore posts (and posters) that aren't relevant to this thread. We've got more interesting things to talk about.
Politics › Re: Uk Govt Deports 52 Nigerians, Today by ektbear: 12:06am On Apr 21, 2011
^-- Claiming 99.9% of one group is no dumber than claiming 90% of the other (neither is based in sound reasoning.) So if one should be condemned, so should the other.
Politics › Re: Buhari Changes Mind: Says He Will Now Head To Court To Challenge Polls by ektbear: 11:45pm On Apr 20, 2011
This is good.

Examine the 22 million votes, and also examine the underage voting supposedly done in the North.

I'd also like to see national ID done in this country, so we can know exactly how many people are in it. And if this ID is used to issue voter registration cards, then it will be far easier to detect fraud.
Politics › Re: I'm So Proud To Be A South-Westerner by ektbear: 11:02pm On Apr 20, 2011
step1:
What we have though is that we make an artificial dam in river Osun, buy turbines and make it work. On the second thought, there are turbines that can work under large water bodies eg Atlantic ocean couple with the Eko atlantic. We can use this to generate electricity as well. I am a reseach student and I calculated that it is very possible and economical valuable.
I wouldn't even bother. Natural gas is cheap as heck. Just use that. I don't want to really screw with the ecology of Yorubaland much, if possible.

Also assuming it is not, we can start looking at coal in Ogun and Oil in lagos and Ondo to use thermal energy. All this are options that can be done under the current situation of this country but Nigerians are not ready for such.
Imo, just either buy NG from Shell, or in the worst case import it. The goal is to get power up and running. . . we don't need to immediately concern ourselves with producing the fuel source too.

One of the problems we encountered was how to get enough capital to power the SW power sector. The solution we though off was to start this company in Abuja and Osun or Ekiti because of the low population and high population wealthy people. By such, we can generate enough capital to build more power plans  for Nigeria and SW in particular.

My team consist of igbos BTW so he also suggested to start in Lagos but I though he is not being realistic because the population of Lagos and the amount of houses in Lagos can not be supported when starting.
Finding the capital will not be hard tongue It is a very good investment. The PHCN distribution companies for Lagos are the two most desirable assets and will get snapped up pretty quickly. The Ibadan and the Benin one (Ekiti State and Ondo are zoned to this Benin Disco) should also be profitable too.

Just invite the right investor to come in and set it up.
Politics › Re: I'm So Proud To Be A South-Westerner by ektbear: 5:58pm On Apr 20, 2011
^-- Main thing is to make sure that the power distribution company is sold to a reliable buyer. We can then expand the current offshore NG barges off the coast of Lagos. Generates 270MW of power currently; unfortunately forced to be routed to the entire national grid.

If privatization occurs, we can power the entire region in under 5 years. These things don't take forever, if you do it correctly.
Politics › Re: I'm So Proud To Be A South-Westerner by ektbear: 5:46pm On Apr 20, 2011
lol @ Hitler Youth.

I fancied myself more as Clinton Bigsby:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHFUH_frhBw
grin grin grin
Politics › Re: I'm So Proud To Be A South-Westerner by ektbear: 4:59pm On Apr 20, 2011
What is the plan for Oyo, though? What are the major needs there? What needs to be done to revitalize the state?
Politics › Re: I'm So Proud To Be A South-Westerner by ektbear: 4:45pm On Apr 20, 2011
Eko Ile:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5wiCFQIRkc
I like it. It is a good plan, and should be very attractive for manufacturers. Once you have a deep sea port like that, and locate manufacturing right next to it, you have a significant competitive advantage versus other exporters (assuming the electricity situation is fixed in naija, that is!)

Invite Honda, Toyota to locate factories there for export to other countries in Africa, and perhaps abroad.

Moving to a manufacturing-based economy is the way forward.
Politics › Re: Amabassador Cambell On The Presidential Elections by ektbear: 4:37pm On Apr 20, 2011
Lagosboy:
We should be objective in analysis and pick holes in his analysis and not his person per se. I dont see anything wrong in what he wrote here, in fact everything tallies up with what we hear in Nigeria and the results released. He gives us insight into how rigging is done at collation centers which is the truth.
Nobody can pick holes in his analysis. Hence they attack his person  grin

At least no one can now pretend as if the elections were free and fair, and the 80%+ turnout was credible.

Buhari rightly rejected the results.
Politics › Re: I'm So Proud To Be A South-Westerner by ektbear: 4:16pm On Apr 20, 2011
^-- Well said.

Sai SW!
Politics › Re: I'm So Proud To Be A South-Westerner by ektbear: 3:56pm On Apr 20, 2011
[quote author=Kilode?! link=topic=650737.msg8172183#msg8172183 date=1303310860]The Irunmoles don't hate. They assimilate cool[/quote]ROFL. Man. That needs to become a new internet meme. "Nigga, don't hate. Assimilate!" grin grin grin

Can't we all just get along?
http://www.debbieschlussel.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/cantwealljustgetalong.jpg
Politics › Re: Amabassador Cambell On The Presidential Elections by ektbear: 3:45pm On Apr 20, 2011
^-- heh, fair point. Still, worth listening to his words. . . not eating them up blindly, but using it along with other info sources.
Politics › Re: I'm So Proud To Be A South-Westerner by ektbear: 3:32pm On Apr 20, 2011
Very interesting discussion.

This is a pretty good read on the Egun: http://www.jstor.org/pss/1159502

Unfortunately hidden behind JSTOR. If someone wants to download it and upload the PDF somewhere for everyone to read, please do so (I'd do it myself, but don't want to violate copyrights or whatever)

https://i53.tinypic.com/70e0rs.png
and
https://i55.tinypic.com/23ics5h.png
http://books.google.com/books?id=VC7kKcXdDhkC&pg=PA289&lpg=PA289&dq=the+aja-speaking+peoples&source=bl&ots=m48ZBO6gca&sig=Veuvf_76QCHrQ21qZ1NbCqcGhME&hl=en&ei=vOauTarHI6jgiALL4sDRDA&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=6&ved=0CDYQ6AEwBQ#v=onepage&q=the%20aja-speaking%20peoples&f=false

So in a nutshell, looks like the Egun are the descendants of different but related peoples who fled the slave wars of the 18th and 19th century (though so moved during the colonial era too), moving East. I guess less chance of being captured and enslaved by the Dahomey slave raiders if you have the protection of the Oyo Empire.

Kind of interesting. . . they moved to many places in Yorubaland, as this map on page #4 of the PDF shows:
https://i54.tinypic.com/118m8zn.png

The groups who moved to Abeokuta, Yewa area and deep into the Yoruba hinterland presumably intermarried, started speaking Yoruba, and became indistinguishable from the locals.

Otoh, many others moved to Bagadry. The assimilation process seems to have been slower there. . . but over time, intermarriage and cultural influence seems to have had a great effect on them. Adopting the language, absorbing much of the culture, selection an Oba to rule over them.

Very interesting stuff. It reminds me of how so many in the USA became Americanized. A guy in the 1900s would move here from Poland. His children and grandkids would consider themselves white Americans of Polish descent.

There is actually a LOT more of this in Yorubaland than we think. We've all heard the Shango story, how his mother is Nupe. We know of the Tinubu family in Lagos, which was supposedly founded by a Hausa trader ancestor. In Ibadan, there are documented cases of Hausa who eventually became Yorubaized and absorbed into the greater community. Ilorin, very much the same. . . Hausa, Nupe, Fulani all absorbed into the Yoruba tapestry.

It is a beautiful thing.
Politics › Re: Don't Agonize, Organize by ektbear: 11:45am On Apr 20, 2011
Jarus:
But the character of Nigerian politics has been changed forever. We are now openly more divided along a religious and ethnic divide which shall come to haunt us in future. Corruption remains, the all-powerful party contractors and fixers are still in-charge and Jonathan has shown his other, truer side. He may very well succeed in fixing our electricity but at huge, unjustifiable costs. Next time around we may not just have 90 to 100 percent voter turnout in South-South, but we could very well have double the registered voters actually voting for PDP. But we shall, God willing, survive these next four or eight years.
It was bk.babe who compared Nigeria to Animal Farm. He was very correct; I guess we have just completed the first two chapters. All hail President-elect Napoleon Goodluck Jonathan.

It is perhaps time to reread bk.babe's excellent post: https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-616372.0.html
Politics › Re: Amabassador Cambell On The Presidential Elections by ektbear: 11:20am On Apr 20, 2011
Lagosboy:
Thanks for the link it is also on NVS.

People just like to read what they want to hear. The election process was better than 2007 and JEGA gave us a good process. However, the election was rigged in the SE, SS and north which means it is not free and fair.
This, I don't understand. How do we know it was better than 2007? We don't know what happened. GEJ probably won, but we cannot say for sure. How is that a good election, when you cannot say definitively who won huh

We may find out after investigations and forensics are done that it was a good election. But as for now, we simply have no fricking clue.

I had a long discussion this evening with my girlfriend over dinner about this. She didn't get it at first. .  until I explained it to her using the analogy of the Gore vs. Bush elections in 2000. Yet rather than questionable voting in a few counties within the state of Florida, MASSIVE rigging in fully 1/3rd of the states in the nation. When I told her that, she was flabbergasted.

If I urinate in your borehole water supply, will you want to drink that water? Small amounts of contamination can corrupt the process utterly. Yet Nigerians seem willing to drink water from this filthy supply.
Politics › Re: Amabassador Cambell On The Presidential Elections by ektbear: 10:44am On Apr 20, 2011
Hehe grin grin grin

John Campbell's momma also did not raise a fool cool

Link to his article is here: http://blogs.cfr.org/campbell/2011/04/19/nigerian-presidential-elections-the-devil-is-in-the-ballot-collating/

Spreadsheet of election results I calculated on Google docs here: https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-648868.64.html#msg8151346

Similar table calculated by El Rufai here: http://saharareporters.com/sites/default/files/uploads/ElRufaiTable.jpg
Politics › Re: The Nigerian 2011 Elections-An Opportunity Lost?by:Nasir Ahmed El-Rufai by ektbear: 9:46am On Apr 20, 2011
Regarding ANPP:

-- Ume Ezeoke (Speaker of the House from 1979-83, current Chair of the ANPP - considered a PDP mole within the ANPP, negotiated ANPP inclusion in Government of National Unity)
http://234next.com/csp/cms/sites/Next/Home/5684546-146/story.csp

This is a guy the US ambassador (or whoever prepared that document) considers a PDP asset. So suspecting the ANPP of working with the PDP is not farfetched at all.

ANPP = more votes sucked away from Buhari in the North. Pay them off with some cash to run Shekarau and pad GEJs margin of victory.
Politics › Re: I'v Start Regreting Why I Voted For Gej. by ektbear: 9:40am On Apr 20, 2011
Odunnu:
Was Goodluck the President in 1991 when I watched as a young sch gurl my classmate's house go up in flames with the entire family in the burning house and my mom and I had to walk/run on dead bodies to be secure.
Was GEJ president in 1995 when my father's cars, house and my eldest sister all got burnt in another crazy out break of riots.My daddy stil has scars frm matchete wounds he got in one of such outbursts
In 1983, my family stil tel the sordid story of maitatsine's violence!
Relax buddie, you voted right. Sacking that minister was in the rite direction. Every average Nigerian knew the northernerz would revolt,it was the duty of that office to nip it in the bud. I believe strongly that the positive change we so desire would be heralded by GEJ
sad
Politics › Re: The Nigerian 2011 Elections-An Opportunity Lost?by:Nasir Ahmed El-Rufai by ektbear: 9:25am On Apr 20, 2011
It is also evident that the ACN and ANPP were in some kind of covert alliance with the PDP so it is likely that their presidential candidates and key officers will be offered cabinet positions in the Jonathan administration, thus leaving CPC as the last opposition party standing. This is an opportunity for the party to build its organization nationally and govern the handful of states it is likely to win, competently.
Well, from Wikileaks, we know that the ANPP is heavily infested by PDP moles, at the very least. Perhaps he is correct about the ACN allying with the PDP as well.

I like this voter turnout table: http://www.saharareporters.com/sites/default/files/uploads/ElRufaiTable.jpg

Raises a lot of questions.

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