₦airaland Forum

essentialone:
UACN. Buy more, Hold on, or Sell off?

This is a long term approach, I am responding because i was mentioned. Same approach as Flour mill, i'm holding current unit, If i am just opening positions today as a long term player , i will start with afolabi units, then buy more or not based on quarterly earnings report . The major risk of UACN is management figuring out how to turn around the agro-allied sector of the company. The recent earning shows boost in profitability which is due to a large extent inflow from disposed property, plant, etc . will keep enjoying the tashere dividend and adding appropriately.

Disclaimer: for most positions (about 9 out every 10) of my / home office stock holding[b] i don't have a price target. Hence, i usually don't talk about price[/b] two things takes me out of a position viz;
a. if the company's (stocks held) direction (mgt, financials) begin swerve away from the trajectory .
b. death on my part aka till death do us part (if the next person in line of command aka beneficiaries are wiser or dumber than i am as the case maybe decides to sell everything, I am long gone anyway... step-up basis to whoever takes over the office). I hope i there will be sme type of trust in place to mitigate this.

edited Nov 6 2023 for better reading flow/ grammatical error.

vacanci:
pls what's the implication of this news on share holders

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/39815_STANBIC_IBTC__HOLDINGS_PLC-RE-REGISTRATION_OF_BANKING_SUBSIDIARY_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_OCTOBER_2023.pdf

nothing changes, it's part of due process to ensure compliance of setting up the holding company named stanbic IBTC holding company . Shares traded on ngx is stanbic holding (parent company of stanbic ibtc bank, asset mgt, and other subsidiaries you read in the annual report).

emmanuelewumi:
Do you know that the regulators are not Nigerians and are not based in Nigeria. We no get choice we must pay.Unlike the fund in your dorm accounts that government can seize,Eurobond funds are not domiciled in Nigeria

Yes i am aware, i guess i need to work on my trust issues per Naija Euro bond.

While i have your attention, whats' your thought on the general outlay (macro) on naija scene for 4th quarter 23 - 1st qtr '24 what are you looking at in the market this days ( been quiet a bit, doing more R& for point and kill )

emmanuelewumi:
Why the bias for Eurobond

Default risk is scary (so far Naija has been on the straight and narrow with redeeming their coupons.). if it's naira based aka FGN bonds, we know bad as e bad we go print. knowing i can avoid the headache with defaults, i will rather go through the respective countries bonds and currencies. naira in nigeria, US tbills in US. if i need exposure to EZ, will go through their appropriate bourse. I am aware the yields is nothing compared to our Eurobonds though. But sound sleep at night is priceless to me.

emmanuelewumi:
Reducing balance are used for loan, it is assumed the investor has a minimum of 4 streams of income. Hopefully the loan will be liquidated in less than 5 years. And the investor will continue to enjoy annual income of N17 million for the next 25 years from the investment and his children can get the invested capital of N100 million at maturity if the investor is dead.

The Eurobond fund will also continue to generate dollar denominated investment income.

Toucje!!!! Thanks!! #Light bulb moment!! This a good approach for setting up a Trust in our clime. My bias against euro bunds may just mean switch to to alternative options (exposure to other markets).

BabsO2:
If one does a stock (or property) portfolio analysis using time value of money for every invested money and also applies time value of morning money for every income stream from dividends (or rents) some how or by assumptions (e.g. re-investing the money in stocks). Only a few shares in the portfolio (or few properties) can achieve 17% annualized returns in a 10 to 20 year period.....
A nation cannot run on such high interest rate without MAJOR problems down the road.

We have to consider/ factor risk premiums (Equity or country) are calculated by humans there's always room for error with change in fiscal policy and monetary. risk premium when abacha was in govt, was different from when Obj took over, it was also different by the end of his first term in governance. Same also plays a role in growth of companies, wreckless fiscal and monetary policies may be detrimental, but i am optimistic Nigeria will get it right, we always pull through the hard times, We are usually bad with managing the fruit of our labour of hard times. Little breathing room from economic hardship , we lose focus and are back to misappropriation in grandiose style . A circle of snake biting it's tail.

emmanuelewumi:
Yes


Use the Investment as a collateral and get 17m multiplied by 3 making about N50 million as a loan, use it to buy dollar and invest in a Eurobond fund that gives between 5% to 7% return on investment, you can decide to reinvest your Eurobond dividends.

Thank me later in 5 years time

hypothetical case still, aren't you short changed with ROI of 7%, if interest rate on collateralised loan is going for ~ 16 % ? missing something on interest or foreground?

emmanuelewumi:
Sugar per capita consumption in the north is the highest in the country, the products are also taken to neighbouring countries like Niger, Mali etc through the North

.
Thats good to note about the consumption per capita. As for the cross border trading = a slippery slope into other questions of appropriate geographic revenue generation, etc.Thanks for the insight

vacanci:
what i see is an improvement.
their finance cost went down drastically from about 82B second quarter alone to less than 16B for the third quarter alone.

the six months cost was 90B while nine months cost was 108B

that second quarter when the forex revaluation took place was the dent.

By fourth quarter, it will be full recovery

Disclaimer: Not a bigot intended statement .. It never cease to amaze me how northern operation generate that much almost 4X western (exclude lagos) and eastern region. There is definitely more to this, hopefully more data can help to see potential for others to learn what Alhaji aliko and samad are doing right in that sphere.

vacanci:
its not 0.03 cents declared o. Its 3 cents

error corrected.

BabsO2:
The way him double PRESCO dividend add jara join no be small vex.

Annual report and dividend should be interesting . In other news, seem like Indonesia palm kennel based biofuel for aviation isn't a fluke anymore, if it gains reasonable ground, Okomu should be reasonably centered amongst its peers in the world for the largesse ahead.

Addendum this is mid-long term news for future readers to avoid confusion)


In other News SEPLAT Interim Dividend Declared 0.03 $ cents ( i no fit shout for conversion rate they will use for naira payment) Qualification Date= 10 Nov 2023. Payment Date= 24 Nov 2023

Emndy:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/39732_OKOMU_OIL_PALM_PLC.-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2023.pdf

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/39730_OKOMU_OIL_PALM_PLC.-OUTCOME_OF_BOARD_MEETING_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_OCTOBER_2023.pdf

OKOMUOIL Interim Dividend N4.50

Okomu don vex finally, dutty december in motion .. Days like this, you wish Morgan capital offer instant deposit

Edit: morgan capital team was helpful when contacted.

Princkez:
will Alhaji pay interim as he did with NASCON?

Doubt he will, the board may just lump it into final next year if the merger is completed before annual general meeting.

Lifestone:
He should tell us what company shares his father bought and not to generalize. Those who bought into Nestle shares and Dangote sugar and Cement are much happier. It's all about investment education and knowledge.

yeah, i doubt (s)he will state the name of the company.

vacanci:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/guardian.ng/features/dangote-to-spend-n1b-on-adamawa-outgrowers-farming-season/amp

Sugar cane money if well harnessed, no be here oh.

Locotrader:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/39703_CUSTODIAN_INVESTMENT_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2023.pdf

I saw the name had to go through before sabbath start
impressive result (cash equivalent, earnings, retained earnings, contingency reserve,etc) for a cash cow like Custodian .Big ups to the management running a tight ship and sealed lip on most of their deals.

**It will be interesting to see how/when the investment /mgt team show their thought of future projections through their investment in their joint ventures , acquisition in Real estate investment outside UPDC, commercial papers and corporate bonds.
*** More room for growth on Life insurance Premium. This will be challenging based on generational perception of life insurance, but over time, if any insurance coy can do it, Money will be on Custodian.
Impressive year, go close the 4th qtr without fumbling the bag.. Well done Madam johnson and her team!!!!

essentialone:
. Flourmills Plc. Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Long term not JIJO Holding what is already in the kittty and Buying at every reasonable opportunity it goes down !!. food section (pasta, mill,etc) seem to be sector with huge cash burning rate possibly due to the following factors viz:
a. This seem like some management slip in judgement in terms of financing some of the deals i.e loans, wheat contracts, financing cost, accounting schenanigans etc. This should possibly be figured out in a reasonable timeline ~ a year at least get their act straight to get efficient with the new additional subsidiaries. With a milling capacity almost 3 x that of Bua foods, they can definitely do better than this.

b. New acquisition of portharcourt mill (I want to believe this is the same defunct one held by chagoury group for a while. I stand to be corrected. if that is the case, I will be looking out for more liabilities than what has been disclosed thus far). 55% share from river state govt seem good, not comfortable till it's wholly owned or some time of contractual agreement to up equity to about 75 % after turn around of the flour mill.

c. With this aggressive move in acquisition in the milling section, it seem like the light bulb went up the head huncho to see what is possible if Nigeria market can be properly addressed and in extension neighbouring african market reached with export. It will only make sense to start some level of backward integration plan for wheat, else the loan will meet up with them at some point, and e go too choke!!!!

songus:
Did you notice their cost of sales was positive? Must be some extraordinary item hiden there.

well aware of that, will flesh it out in their annual, same for retained earnings.

Locotrader:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/39638_MULTIVERSE_MINING_AND_EXPLORATION_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2023.pdf

Well done LT!!.

statement dey make sense small small. Looks like Multiverse is starting to run lean and mean. Na from thursday we dey know how saturday flexing go be. Dividend increase may be on the horizon, or they may still decide to deploy into expansion process.... the quality of the document is crappy, na so so strain person dey strain to read.

gbengafaro1986:
i am also in this boat

Bukkydudu:
Amen oooo. Yet to receive it oooo

Got notified on friday and this morning FCMB and Zenith bank respectively.

cooooooks:
Congratulations! As for me, if anyone can produce already peeled beans, for akara or moi moi, i would love to order. Wishing you the best. With your packaging, diaspora market isn't far.

You can buy this product , take it to the mill that grinds hard stuff like dried yam, plantain Voila!! you have your powdery beans for moi and bean cake.

rmx:
... let me also add for business owners that trade in goods , holding non perishable stocks could also be a good a hedge as holding fcy now ...

I can attest to the bolded .A family member during the new dispensation of Buhari had loads of kitchenware (England, chinese dinnerset.) in her store from stocking up during Jonathan era when protest was the order of the day. raked in shyte ton of profit almost 10X of her investment. Knowing parties always happen in this country every friday through sunday. Thinking of borrowing her idea to test out with small amount if this will work again in the next 4-5 years. Moolah must be made. (writing this to make myself accountable so i no go procastinate whenever i read this in the future)

VeeVeeMyLuv:
And not raise one's expectations about those bunch he mentioned too much, so that the outcome of their policies will not b too surprising or shocking or feel disappointing to the individual.

it would be difficult to trust any nigerian politician if one grew up watching Nigeria super eagles at every competition ( tunisia 1994 and atlanta 1996 outing are exceptions) . All that believe getting drained after disappointment every time, you give yourself brain , no one is coming to save you in this entity called Nigeria, gain knowledge (not talkking about nominal grades e.g first class, etc).

Always follow the money where it treads, Looters saboteurs and financial accomplice of this nation always hide /show their hands with their deck of cards every time in plain sight (no matter how much they flush overseas economy, they still have to traverse the Nigerian economic space).

Study and see through it, do the best you can to be a blessing in your endeavour, then give back to your environ of choice in Nigeria (We start small, we make mistakes, we learn, we get better ) e.g alma mater, place of worship, destitutes, orphanage home (e.g endowment fund to sponsor the institution directly or anonymously. There is always one credible person amongst a bunch of them that can get things done). Pass away to rest with your ancestors knowing you did the little you could in the environment you found yourself.

Locotrader:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/39607_GEREGU_POWER_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2023.pdf

seem the expected acquisition of another plant will fall into next year. same dividend regime expectation. Thanks for the upload.!.

seem like Wheat is the new seasonality (dry season) hustle .

PSA for the house: Any lawyer in the house that offer notary service? kindly identify yourself. May require service in coming week(s)... if doesn't apply to you, kindly move along . be blessed !!

Contrarian view: I believe competitive advantage is nuanced. If the government elected now and in coming years create an avenue for business growth through policies consistently regardless of political affiliation ( monetary devaluation, aggressive increment in production and product value chain capacity in selected space in agriculture, health and IP in tech companies).I strongly believe currency devaluation is a monetary tool in itself 50- 100 years from now, our sons and grandkid will be like that is/was a no brainer policy to our exponential growth. considering it is deflationary. Albeit deflation is a double edge sword, a country like Nigeria with our human capital reserve (if channeled properly will go well for majority if our populace) shold benefit if properly done.

I can only imagine what our agricultural space will look like if the buhari-emefiele intervention (in about 8 years) in rice industry can be replicated and refined in select few space in commmodity (agriculture, solid mineral e.g gold, lithium). There is always a market for quality product while making profit becomes a question of consistent satisfaction of your customers.

Zagee:
One should keep an eye on NIDF. Investors

NIDF concept make sense. will see what they dish out in the annual report or quarterly report for update on holdings.hopefully its not the usual vague holding list they report.
UPDATE DEC 12 '23 : Started accumulation of NIDF stock - Will see how it goes during 2024 to add appropriately for Quartely dividend.The Logic is use this as exposure to long term overweight corporate bond : underweight government bond mix .(This hit me like a ton of brick when rebalancing today, #Agelikewine)

Hamachi:
PUBLIC NOTICE

CALL FOR MEMORANDA ON FISCAL POLICY AND TAX REFORMS

The Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee was set up by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR to review and advise on reforms to shape Nigeria's fiscal policies and tax system. In this regard, the Committee hereby calls for submission of memoranda from the general public.

Submissions are expected on a wide range of topics relating to the Committee’s terms of reference, including but not limited to:

1. Fiscal Governance – Issues regarding public financial management, government spending priorities, debt management and economic policy coordination

2. Revenue Transformation – Revenue administration, taxation structure, incentives management, and non-tax revenue mobilisation

3. Economic Growth Facilitation – Promoting ease of business, addressing impediments to trade, and supporting MSMEs

Your input will assist the Committee to develop policies that promote economic growth, equitable taxation system, improved accountability and sustainability of Nigeria’s fiscal system.
The deadline for submitting memoranda is 15 November 2023.

Your participation is vital to the work of the Committee and the desired outcomes. We therefore look forward to receiving your valuable input and support for a stronger and more equitable fiscal policy and taxation system.

For inquiries or further information, please send a message to +234 810 975 3151 or via email to enquiries@fiscalreforms.ng

Signed

Taiwo Oyedele
Chairman, Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee

Please remember if you can not send a memorandum/a. there is an opportunity to volunteer in whatever capacity (see that as giving back to the nation in helping to build this nation's Tax code). check out the google form to offer areas you maybe able to volunteer. VIVA NIGERIA!!

MeezPat:
Pls when is access bank paying dividend and what is the qualification date

Qualification date : 5th October. Payment date:October 19th 2023. To keep up with other stocks you have, check out ngx website or nairametric equity section for dividend list, it gets updated regularly. Enjoy!!

damosade:
Any thing that affects ur peace of mind.

Rock bottom tendency with no hope is worse than being broke

YoshihideSuga:
I'm curious, why would someone abroad use dollars to invest into companies which are generating their revenues in naira? Is that financially sensible? Investing in the NSE makes sense if the investor generates his cash/earnings in naira, not dollars.

@Phadriz & @capitas hve done justice to your question. my thoughts below na just jara nothing more.!.


one of many strategy is playing the nigerian stock exchange, japanese stock exchange, turkey , jamaican stock exchange as a "penny value stock" (if that is even a word) . I will rather be exposed to this cheap but valuable companies in above listed countries for penny stocks plays than penny stocks in North america. PENNY WISE NAIRA & DOLLAR WISE

Over time, it evens out in yield (Growth and dividend ) considering the businesses you are buying into have devaluation as a competitive advantage in many respects viz: companies that get influx of cash from diaspora mostly have exporting capacities, they also have huge base in their respective hubs for multi-currency revenue generation around the world. Devaluation and inflation becomes a competitive advantage compared to their peers whose currency have higher purchasing power, cost of production. The Latter's production and product (peers with hard currency) tend to be expensive .Hence, revenue drops compared to business in countries with devalued currency , they can offer cheaper price , with large volume so long quality is not jeopardized

there is no rule set in stone that you most must only invest in one exchange. allocate based on your convenience, as you see result for self, you will adjust appropriately.!,

edit oct 11- 23: brain say one thing , hand dey type another thing.!!!!

emmasoft:
You can come over to investment one stockbrokers.
To open account for free, click the third link on my signature. Once account is opened you can download the app and just sign in with the details already given to you.
It's always seamless opening the account first before downloading the app.
You can reach out to me if you need any further guidance.

for ione acct corporate, can you help with that as well ?? should the person just copy your referral code since she is filing through hardcopy then fwd to ione? please advice how to go about that .Thanks